 Good afternoon, I'm Peter Bergen. Welcome to the New America Foundation run the national security studies program here It's very much a pleasure To welcome a man Garen to speak to us today about jihad and politics in North Africa Aiman is Very well positioned to have that discussion He's been teaching a course on that that North Africa at SICE He is a author of the book Sahara, which is available for purchase outside I'm sure he'll sign it if you press him He Only after they bought it my dad used to say it's a dollar off if I sign it, but Aiman is also an arabist. He spent considerable time living under in with the Bedouin Western Egypt He went on to pursue solo camel-powered explorations in the Egyptian Sahara He is Somebody who's written for a wide variety of newspapers the day to tell a daily telegraph the independent Al-haram and others and He said that he would be speaking for about Half an hour and then we'll have a Q&A and then open it up to you Aiman Thank You Peter. It's a great pleasure to be here this morning or now this afternoon Thank you all for coming 20 to 30 minutes seems hardly fair to try and do justice to the problems of North Africa security issues economic problems political shenanigans and the rest But I think that very often the most interesting part of these meetings is the Q&A I'm not going to shortchange you on the time. I will talk and introduce some very salient points I hope you'll agree and While this is going to be a conversation. I'd like to start with a couple of illustrations. I know it's not a slide presentation, but I think just for the understanding of the area that we're dealing with I'm just going to hold up these two pictures here I've used this in class before and those who've seen it will recognize the outline of Mali Superimposed on the United States of America minus Hawaii and Alaska Just get that into your heads when you want to think about the scale of The land mass we're talking about And once you've got that image in your head, I'll show you the second slide. That's the US Over a map of Africa. You can see it almost disappears in the Sahara So when we jump up and down and criticize force X or army Y for not having done a more effective job in the region Do bear in mind, please the sheer scale of what they are trying to deal with With those images burned into your retinas. Let's carry on Anybody who has been at one of my lectures in the past whether it's at size or I'm pleased to teach or Any of the venues on both sides of the Atlantic will know that I Always like to start with a bit of establishing history Now this is as true for a talk about Timbuktu as Mali as North Africa as global affairs So forgive me if I go back to ancient Egypt. Don't worry. It's it's worth it's worth listening to The ancient Egyptians as you know Thrived on the Nile as an East Bank and a West Bank of the Nile. They lived on the East the dead were buried on the West Bank Everything in the West of the Nile was the land of the dead This is the place where souls were laid to rest or otherwise But more interestingly for the Egyptian model is that the Sahara The land of the dead all of the land to the West of the Nile Was the area of insecurity and instability It was a land that they could not govern which is why in Egyptian religion and Egyptian mythology the desert lands were left alone they were left to the people who inhabit of them and Control over them was always tenuous Let's move forward a few hundred years ancient Rome Ancient Rome as you know did a fairly credible job of smashing certain local populations in North Africa Carthage must be destroyed. How many of us remember that from Latin classes But what did they do after they got Carthage after if Rakhia modern Tunisia was conquered How far south did they go into the desert? Well for those of you from the British Isles who have been traveling in in Northern England and Scotland You may well have come across this thing called Hadrian's wall. It's a big wall wasn't so much to Limit movement between the Scots and the English as might be the case today But it was to stop the Scots coming in and attacking the Romans They had similar walls lines Soft walls of sand berms. We would call them today built in southern Tunisia It was to prevent raids from the marauding desert tribes coming north They couldn't control the desert. This is Rome. We're talking about still the Roman Empire the mighty Roman Empire Before whom everyone quailed but not the inhabitants of the Sahara These walls were kept there in southern Tunisia for hundreds of years Because they recognized they couldn't control and they couldn't tax the populations of the Sahara I'm leaping right ahead now to the 15th century There's a gentleman whose name you should all know when you leave here today remember the name of Mansa Musa Emperor of emperors In the 15th century he was in charge of the Marlian Empire an Extensive Empire which is not exactly contiguous with the nation state of Mali today. It was much bigger He was the wealthiest man in the world Not just for his period, but for all time If anybody questions the validity of this statement go away and read Forbes magazine December 2012 edition They have Mansa Musa listed as the wealthiest man who ever lived When Mansa Musa left the heart of the Sahara his kingdom in Timbuktu To go on the Hajj pilgrimage to the kingdom now of Saudi Arabia. He passed through Cairo He had 80 camels on his journey Just to carry his gold He spent so much in Cairo on his way to Mecca That when he came back he had to borrow money to make the journey home again to the Sahara If anybody has ever traveled to Egypt and feels that they've been fleeced for a few dollars too many It says nothing compared to what Mansa Musa went through The gold price in the whole of the Middle East was devalued for at least a decade because of what Mansa Musa spent That's the 15th century in the 21st century gold remains central to the Marlian economy It's not one of the world's largest suppliers of gold, but there are so little else in that country That they do rely on it more heavily than they should and certainly more heavily than they would like to so today We have French troops in Mali We have Mali and troops excluded from the north of their own country. We have Chadi and troops leaving Mali Everybody wants to focus on the jihadis. Everybody wants to know about al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb They are a security threat. They are not an existential threat I'm going to talk later about solutions as I see them for the problems both in Mali and the wider Sahel This term the arc of instability is used frequently now to describe the whole of the Sahel It's been unstable for a long time and it's not just because of very few small radical Islamist groups The problems are much deeper than that if it were only a problem of two or three terrorist groups It would be much easier to solve the problem in the short term so to Mali the problems They're three fold primarily But each one of these umbrella terms covers a basket of ills We have political problems Economic problems and beyond those social problems The three are obviously interconnected have that then diagram with the three umbrella terms in your head And there are any number of points of overlap But let's start with the political problems because I think these are at the heart of what's happening in Mali today some people Have called Mali a model democracy in Africa since 1991 1992 Other people whose voices perhaps were not heard as clearly as they might have been recognized for a very long time that Mali was a political lightweight Election turnouts across the Sahel are never have never been tremendously high In Mali in every election since 1992 and indeed including 1992 The turnout has been in the high 30s That is to say less than 40 percent of the eligible electorate turnout for elections in Mali does that suggest a Community a population that is actively engaged in choosing a new president not a bit of it Why don't they turn out for elections? Well, we've asked the Malians and the Malians have spoken The main reason they offer is because the political elites in Bamako a long way from the north of the country are corrupt self-serving and self-interested I Think this is a problem Which has been there much longer than the past 20 years, but it's a problem which we have yet to address When trying to push forward a better Mali in the future The social problems I mentioned this imaginary line that divides the north and the south of the country between those who like the twareg the Arab populations in the north who self identify as white Verses those who identify as black the African versus Arab question in Mali It's significant and it has very ancient roots What we are not seeing in Mali, however is a clash of civilizations a la Huntington 90% of the population in Mali are Muslim five percent are Christian and As some wags observe a hundred percent are animist the religious nuances in Mali must not be understated it is vital that we understand both the softer if I may use such a term Sufi traditions which have existed in Mali for centuries indeed since the time of Mansa Musa and the foundation of the great universities in the Sahara But the influx of jihadi Salafi radicals has not happened overnight It has not happened since the fall of Gaddafi in Libya. It has been taking place for more than a decade closer to 15 years there has been an influx of money and an influx of teachers from certain countries Who have a long tradition of radical Salafist thinking? The point I'm making is that it's very complex and I think across the board Mali's problems and the problems of security across the Sahel are very very complex and we have to understand this complexity if we are serious about finding solutions to the problems in Mali and indeed across the Sahel with solutions in mind Let me throw out a few ideas. Some of them radical some of them less so The first thing I would say is that any solutions to the complex problems of Mali must be driven by Malians We've all heard this term local solutions to local problems It's the only thing that will work Which isn't to say that we take a step back and let Mali stumble over themselves to try and work out What's best? No We should be there to partner with those who would like us to partner with them There's no point trying to have a partnership with somebody who's not willing and the idea of willing partners is essential Now a major problem. I think we have in Mali today Is the lack of political will to implement credible changes to the system a very Important plank of any solution to the problems in Mali whether it's the security problems the political problems or the social problems is a national dialogue in South Africa very different scenario of course, but the Truth and Reconciliation Committee produced great results in Northern Ireland The British government sat down with people that once upon a time. They said they would never sit down with The situation in Northern Ireland today While not completely rosy It's certainly a dam site better than it was when I was growing up during the time of the so-called troubles And that's because there was this conversation taking place But it has to include all parties Now some parties may not want to participate Some parties we know for sure will not participate This is where we come to the likes of al-Qaeda in the Maghreb. They don't want to negotiate They're not interested in political power in Mali not as you or I would understand it Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb as al-Qaeda elsewhere Offers nihilism rather than solution This is not going to produce a healthy outcome in Mali however a big issue in Mali is The government seems unlikely to engage in a genuine National dialogue that offers a chance of a reconciliation committee In fact, their heads are still in the sand about the twareg problem as they call it and Before we we dwell too much on the twareg these mythical blue veiled people of the desert Let's remember that the twareg population in Mali makes up less than 10 percent of The national population of those 10 percent You'd be lucky to find 1% of the twareg population who belong to a group such as the MNLA That group what which wants autonomy or indeed independence in some quarters for the twareg in northern Mali They are simply not representative of all twareg This is important but because when we the West the French the Americans and the British travel to Mali to start talking to people our Instinct is to go for those who are most familiar at least whose name is most familiar and The twareg win out every time in that debate. We know about the twareg. We believe we've heard their name We see them as interlocutors with whom we can deal But please let's remember that they are not representative of the whole of the country To be credible a dialogue must be inclusive elections Elections are set to take place in Mali at the end of July I think they should be postponed and I'm not alone in that. I Do not believe that they will be postponed The French are pushing for them the Americans are pushing for the elections the British the Europeans Echo was indeed are pushing for the elections The elections will probably take place as I said But make no mistake about it. They will not be credible and they will not be meaningful If you want an election fine have your election But don't please five years hence turn around and say well Mali model democracy We had elections. How's everything fallen apart? Why won't the elections work now several reasons? For one thing we have one million Internally displaced persons and refugees as a result of the crisis in Mali The population of Mali is 14 million If one million are dispersed around the country and indeed fled to other countries They are not registered for any election Even before the current two-year-old crisis in Mali It was not an electoral register in that country worthy of the name Last month, this is April 2013 The contract was awarded to start drawing up the electoral role for Mali April for a July election in a country where infrastructure is absent In a great majority of the north of the country This troublesome area that the government in Bamako should be so keen to draw in To any political participation For those who have traveled along the roads in Mali You will know what a deeply uncomfortable journey is to be had there July, it's the rainy season What roads exist are impossible at that time of year So we have an electoral role about to be drawn up between April and a July in a country where at the best of times Communication is poor Trying to do that at the worst possible time of the year when everybody's engaged in agriculture is busy with that When the roads are washed out when communications are wholly absent These are just some of the reasons why the elections are flawed But let's press on why Because it's too costly to keep French troops in the country. So we must have an election Then we will have a legitimate government in Bamako And then America will be allowed to speak again to the authorities in that country at the moment of course because of American law we're not allowed to have direct talks with the government these Coup leaders who have restored a civilian government after much humming and harring Political situation across the country is a shambles. There was a doctoral thesis written some years ago by a German scholar Talks about farming and life in Mali the English title is The hardest job in the world Says it all really. It's a tough old place in which to live And when agriculture is disturbed When there is a coup in the south when you're dealing with radical Islamist groups coming through burning your village What are you going to do? For money What are you going to do to support your family when the crops fail as they are failing across the Sahel? I know what I'd do If I had to support my family in such circumstances, I would go with the first person who offered me money cash money Now who do you think that is? Is it a government coming in with development projects? No Is it aid from the international community? No That's far from ideal anyway It's criminals We talk about Al Qaeda It's a great word. It means we can get excited about counterterrorism moves in the desert and there is room for counterterrorism I will deal with it in a minute But before we think about terrorist groups think about criminals The United Nation estimates that 18 tons of cocaine travels through Mali North towards Europe every year 18 tons a year Some estimates put it at 50 tons a year Now Al Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb Moushwa and Sardin MNLA all of these groups who proclaim whether it's religious jihad or political movements or autonomy for Azawad They are all engaged in criminal activity making money from the drugs trade from the trade in arms from the general instability and I signal these groups as Criminal gangs as much as they are politically motivated but also The rumors are very strong that the previous government in Bamako too was involved in this criminal activity This is not an original idea of mine. I'm putting out there. The literature is extensive to suggest Corruption at the very highest level. We know it certainly exists at the very lowest levels So then we come to this wider so-called Arab spring And people saying that the fallout from Libya was responsible for the collapse of Mali Well, it wasn't That's that for a decisive response. I Would say this anybody again who's traveled in West Africa will know that there is No trouble getting hold of weapons If you think for a minute that we had to wait for the storehouses in Libya to be opened up before people in Mali Could obtain weapons then you're very much mistaken What we do have now is more weapons than before that is true But Gaddafi's downfall was an accelerant not the catalyst for the problems in Mali It's true that we must look at the entire Sahelian region and right across the Sahara as Interrelated problems But it would be wrong if we focus just on al-Qaeda just on Libya just on this or just on that I Said at the beginning it was complex If you're not prepared to accept the complexity Then don't start offering solutions because they won't work. It might make you feel better But it's not us that has to feel better It's the countries on in the region and it's the people on the ground and that's why ideally we must have local solutions I Think I'll just say a final word about al-Qaeda and the terrorist slash criminal groups operating in Mali and indeed the wider region and that word would be Ransoms in the case of instability in the region. It doesn't take much to form a group Anybody who follows the ins and outs of al-Qaeda in the Maghreb or the others will see splits and counter splits just last month There are another two splits in al-Qaeda in the Maghreb these new groups little more than cells sometimes of ten people or more Are growing in number certainly and the smaller. They are the more difficult. They are perhaps to track down However where in certain parts of the world we've shown a willingness to use drones to start blowing people up I Would be very careful before we go down that path in the Sahara Now I know that the government in Niger have allowed drones to operate out of their country These are surveillance drones, and I think that drones are a very useful tool For surveillance for instance, you remember the map we saw at the beginning. This is a very large area I don't know what you would hope to do with just a few troops on the ground unless those men were being targeted to Eliminate or tackle a particular problem a particular cell The drones are a very useful tool as I say, but like any tool it must be used carefully counterterrorism can work if You are tackling a terrorist group in Mali or any other part of the Sahel But counterterrorism is just one tool to be used The problem of ransoms is a massive one Nobody has an accurate figure for how much these groups have raised by kidnapping and ransom 10 million 40 million 60 million dollars in the past decade. We are talking about tens of millions We just don't know how many I think the point is not how much they've got but how much we can stop them getting in the future Now again, if one of your loved ones was kidnapped, I'm sure you would move heaven and earth to pay whatever was asked of you But the payment of ransoms only feeds insecurity in the region There are money trails which should be followed and a final thought on Ransoms and the general payment of them and it's the point. I think our clothes on is that we can have smart counterterrorism if anybody's read Stan McChrystal's recent book on on special forces He makes a very good point About gathering intelligence. He's a great one for his history as Stan McChrystal And in that we're absolutely lockstep with each other. You've got to know your history. You've got to know local circumstances With those things and let's say we could form an international task force to deal with The problem of the the violent cells that we can find to deal with the money trails I think an international force small in number spreading the bill Would be far more effective than any blanket attempt to dominate a country Such as Mali with 4,000 French troops or 10,000 ECOWAS troops It's not going to work You might deny the enemy the ground today that they will be back tomorrow Corrupt officials in Bamako Poor elections that don't represent the people. These are the things that have to be dealt with Development comes after genuine democracy and that is central to the wider problems of Mali and the Sahel And on that time Thank You. Amen. That was a very brilliant presentation. Let me ask you It's unclear to me the exact sequence of events that we used to think of Mali as a sort of Sreddly functional African nation and quite democratic What happened? I mean you you said that the fall of Gaddafi was an accelerant But not the catalyst to this chaotic situation Walk us through the steps about how that chaotic situation was precipitated and also give us an assessment of how You know the French army was greeted as an army of liberation, which that's not intuitive I mean in a country that was until relatively recently part of the French Empire So why did that why what why did that happen in that way again? Give us an assessment you at the end just there you implied that You know these guys have gone into the hills and they'll remain there and they might come back I mean give us an assessment of the French operation as a military operation French went in on 11th of January 2013 initially 1,000 troops went up to 4,000 a Survey conducted in in Bamako it must be said in the south of Mali rather than the north Founder and 98% approval rating for French and intervention in Mali As as Peter intimated this is not intuitive when we think of the French colonial history in that part of the world So why were they so welcomed? Well, nobody wants instability But instability exists too bad We always talk about in an ideal world dot dot dot well it ain't an ideal world and Mali is far from an ideal country in an imperfect world since independence there have been four significant rebellions by Twareggs in the north of the country Twareggs seeking a higher degree of autonomy some of them independence as I said It's a great irony that the coup which launched the current wave of trouble in Mali was an accidental coup Led by some very junior officers a captain I'm just thinking now about Libya 1969 and one captain Gaddafi These these low-level officers or Egypt indeed 1952 Egyptian officers Libyan officers Malian officers Coups counter coups It's an irony though that the the army who launched the coup or the elements of the Malian army that launched the coup Did so because they were unhappy that the government in Bamako was not doing enough For security in the north of the country How ironic then that their coup led to two-thirds of the country being overrun in a matter of months indeed over a long weekend after the coup Malian army that were gathered in the north of the country were expelled as Easily as a hot knife going through butter The Malian armies is relatively small some four and a half thousand strong They're not well equipped. They're not well trained. They are demoralized and they are divided This would be a central component of any future development for the country is the whole sale Reform of the Malian security forces Some people complain that America Afrocom have done too much they they've done too much training in Malian There was the the fact that certain officers who were trained by America then led the coup and this was the problem as though America was somehow responsible Nonsense the problem as I see it is not that the Americans were interfering too much is that there was quite frankly not enough training of Malian forces I would propose Far deeper long-term training of the Malian army so that it becomes a credible force in the country Another way that it has to be made credible is to get rid of regional branches of the army One reason that the Malian army is so hated in the north of the country is because of the countless tales of summary execution By southern Malian troops against northern Malian civilians You simply can't have this extension of the social division in the country being put into the armed forces It means that even on a good day Northern population of Mali resists any attempt at interference by southern Malian troops Very important. I think to get rid of those regional differences within the army Moving to some of the neighboring countries What's your assessment of what's going on in Libya right now? I mean it from the out this from the outside it looks like It could have been a lot worse They've had an election that produced a sort of non-Islamist government I Mean people are very obsessed here about Benghazi, but I mean that's one incident in one city What is the bigger picture in Libya right now? At the time of the Civil War in Libya, I was cautiously optimistic that that country Might find the swiftest path towards a brighter future of any of those countries that had seen the toppling of their dictators in the past two years The reason for my cautious optimism as I like to say is that if I'm wrong there's plenty of time for pessimism down the line But seriously Libya has a very small Population it has a very great wealth and it is begging people to come in and help right now the West could do a great deal more in terms of Security sector reform in Libya and the Libyan government such as it is would be willing to pay for this Now that's not a scenario that we often come up against and in these days of sequester a foreign country Encouraging you to come in and train your forces and offering to foot the bill for you. Well, it's it's unique I think in my experience The situation broadly in Libya is not very good. How's that for an insightful observation? We have a very worrying development now where armed militias besieged government ministries until a vote is taken they get their way they disperse Let's remember this though Those armed militias that have recently dispersed from outside the interior ministry and other government buildings in both Tripoli and Benghazi were forced to disperse by unarmed civilians The militias again do not represent the majority of Libyans But people with guns obviously Have a far greater say in what happens in the country That's why Libya really desperately needs to get an effective police force operating again and an effective army It can be done. It can be done in fairly short order Six to twelve months. We could have a functioning Security force in that country. How by the way, how? First thing that has to be done. Well, we have the willing partner We that is countries of the West who have an interest there and we all have an interest there Need to decide to invest our time and our talent in this security sector reform How is it done? Well, there are certain militias that we will fold in to these security forces Again, it's the situation of reconciliation You have to sit down and sometimes up with the devil if you're going to get an effective solution Now I'm not suggesting for a second that we employ terrorists to watch Libya That's not the answer But there are plenty of our militias who fought against Gaddafi who now feel that their voices are not being heard I do not support militias besieging government buildings to force the hand of the government But I do think that very many of these armed men Can and indeed should be folded into both the police and the army the armed forces that is of Libya What's your assessment of the government there? I mean, what is their orientation and I forgive my ignorance. Is it a sort of readily short-term government? There'll be another one. Is it? Assessment of the government. I mean the poor government. They don't have the tools for the job And I know that we talk about Islamist government non-Islamist government and in Libya People were somewhat surprised that the government wasn't more Islamist whatever that means. It's it's a movable feast I mean, I think the fact is that The first set of major elections post-Gaddafi all of the candidates were good Muslims It was easy for Jabriel to stand up and say hey, you know, I'm not having you telling me I'm not a good enough Muslim you with your Islam in the title of your political party It rather pulled the rug out from under the feet of those that would say we are standing for an Islamic State Because there was no division in the country between those who are for or against some form of sharia law Sharia law existed under Gaddafi. Sharia law exists in many countries in many different forms. I Mean the implementation of sharia law is what worries a lot of people in the West I say we have other things to worry about right now in Egypt and we look at are the brotherhood going to have more sharia law Maybe they will but that's not the problem for Egypt today. Frankly. I don't care if you can wear a bikini and drink a beer Egypt's problems are much deeper and it's the economic problems in Egypt that need to be addressed not how many bars are closed over The long weekend of the Prophet's birthday. We'll sketch out How things may play out in Egypt and how these economic problems might be dealt with I mean Don't isn't it sort of like in this country where everybody kind of knows what the What you need to do on you know in some measure on revenues and entitlements, but the politics around that is incredibly difficult so in Egypt presumably subsidies would have to be dealt with and Creating a better investment environment These are not but these are not easy things to do and and perhaps a higher tax base Yes, when you say that they're not easy things to do you're not wide of the mark it's the economic woes of Egypt are deep and they have very Very complex solutions. Let's deal with it in two minutes First thing to say is that yes subsidies have to be got rid of but not overnight. It's been tried in Egypt It's been tried in Algeria. It was tried in Tunisia. It was tried in Iraq with disastrous effect right now Go back over a 60-year period. I can give you a dozen examples of where a government has been forced by IMF World Bank to remove subsidies. What happens riots in the street, etc. etc. etc The subsidy system in Egypt is broken. It's wholly broken the subsidies are on fuel and Flower Anybody who's been to Egypt and seen this so-called balladee bread the cheap bread that people rely on you see them at the Twice a day coming out of the bakery with 10 or 20 loaves stacked highs the staple Without a subsidy on bread many people in Egypt would simply starve to death That's the argument for keeping subsidies in place However on the flip side the subsidies are so strong that people buy this bread to feed to their animals It's so overly subsidized and it's universal across the country It's simply unsupportable that there has to be a system implemented whereby Those who need the subsidy get the subsidy and those who can afford to buy their own bread buy their own bread You know food stamps exist in this country and I'm not saying that the situation is like for like But there is a system in place whereby people are means tested As I say when you have people in Egypt buying bread to feed to their horses and their cows You know that there's too much being paid in subsidies 2011 26 percent of Government spending was on subsidies. That's simply unsupportable By the way, where is scab the armed forces in all this I mean they've seemed to have kept a sort of relatively low profile Maybe I'm not following it enough But they certainly kept a low profile of late the Supreme Council of the armed forces Some people in Egypt now would like them back in power You know things are bad when people are calling for a military coup in your country By the way, actually which raises it sort of a lie question Yeah, there's two models here Which is one of which you know could be Pakistan on a really bad day or Egypt on a really good day and You know which one of those is more plausible where you know in Egypt You still have a strong military, but they've taken a back seat and you have a Islamist government of sort of readily moderate Where and we all know what Pakistan looks like it's a little bit better today I think that it might have been a year ago, but where do you see Egypt heading? And and and where do you see its military heading as part of that? We must remember that the the Egyptian military are central to the Egyptian economy This is something which is is often neglected overlooked or perhaps unknown even among some Not too close observers We don't know quite how much of the national economy is in the pocket of the Egyptian armed forces And it's not just through military aid. It's not just through concessions on uniforms It's in everything from concrete manufacturing plants to olive oil bottling plants some estimates say that Egyptian military and Its subsidies account for 40% of the national economy So what's the future? Well, you're gonna have to prize those fingers off at least portions of the Egyptian economy and Again when we think about solutions to a problem, I often like to point out that This is not a situation which goes away. This is life. This is this is a country It keeps going. We have a situation today. It will be a different situation next year But we never come to a scenario where everything is fixed and rosy It keeps going Thinking about the military and their role in the future of Egypt Some people have pointed to Turkey and said well, you know Egyptian military very strong in Turkey and now today backseat democracy Fine if that's the way it's going to go maybe but that took 20 years Yeah, and I think people have to be aware that when we look at solutions We can't wait 20 years to get the Egyptian economy back on its feet It simply is not going to you know, we can't allow that to happen What is the IMF asking Egypt? Well again, it's the removal of subsidies or at least a partial removal of subsidies And I think they've got a very valid point there But then if the IMF loans simply get funneled into sorting out the problem of making up the difference in subsidies Then you're you know, you're robbing Peter to pay Paul as my mother would have put it It's not very sensible. What about Tunisia, which is a country with a small population and You know resources at least from tourism and had a sort of semi successful election that which produced an Islamist government Yes, tourism in Tunisia if you've never been to Tunisia on holiday You must go and I wouldn't encourage you to wait a year or two go right now. You'd be perfectly safe You have my word for it. Although. I don't sell insurance. So you might want to take that with a pinch of salt. No Tunisia has a great deal going for it like Egypt. It's got most tremendous human capital That's something which Libya is wanting for is the skills Libya doesn't have the skills to deal with the problems they're having and they've had 40 years without an effective civil service Everything was controlled by the brother leader and his family Very difficult to imagine a country getting back on its feet if there's been no tradition of a real civil service or indeed civil society People said look at the oil and gas industry in Libya is up and running again within 11 months Well, big deal. It wasn't destroyed and it's only up and running because of the foreign expertise that's come back to get it up and running Going back to Tunisia in Egypt though, they have tremendous human capital very skilled Workforces they have greater opportunities. They have a much more diverse economy than Libya, of course If you look at the exports for Libya and Algeria We're looking at 90 95 98 percent is from the petroleum sector. That is not the definition of a diverse economy Egypt and Tunisia do have greater diversity the Islamist government in Tunisia I Don't know why we need to call it moderate Islamist there. They're Islamist and it's fine. We have to deal with this It's a Muslim country. They elected these people They have they are doing a Creditable job under the circumstances, but the fallout from Mali is is Significant there. I mean just last month there were Tunisian border guards killed in clashes with rebels who'd come from Mali Via Algeria via Libya on both borders. They're finding people crossing over the security forces in Libya and Tunisia are Somewhat effective along the borders, but again those desert borders are large even in a small country prognosis for Tunisia If I grade it I give it a B plus right now. Wow, that's great. Yeah, Libya grade What's a failing grade? Well America is an F. I think Well in England where I mean, I think it's a C Let's let's put the grade to one side for a second and I'll just write at the bottom. My comment would be must try harder Is that what you put for your students most of them or no, no my students are very good. They tried jolly hard not my patients I mean, they're very good blood It's sad really because Libya has the greatest opportunity I think simply because of its homogenous population small-scale based just along that Mediterranean literal and the country is well GDP in Libya could be the same as Q8. I mean it could be right up there. It's got Proven oil reserves that put it in the top 10 globally There's money there to be spent And I think this is one of the problems people think that the militias Are controlling the country as they are now, but the militias could be bought off too And I think this is what we do we fold them into the National Army provide them with jobs Provide them with a sense of nationhood. It does exist in Libya People talk about the split between the east and the west in Libya. Yes, it's real. It's been there since well ancient times when Cyrene was Greek province in the east the Jebel Akhtar the mountains in eastern Libya And Rome Roman Libya was the western part of the country It doesn't mean that that division is permanent absolute or insurmountable because it's not I've been in eastern Libya. I've been in western Libya I've been in southern Libya when the Libyan national football team play. They're all Libyans. Trust me. Would you recommend a tourist? Holiday right now in Libya or is it too problematic? I Think for tourism, it's a little sketchy at the moment. There are other jobs to be done down there But yeah, there are people need to be visiting Libya, but not for the purposes of tourism Final question before I throw it open to everybody here, Morocco You know the king seems to have You know managed May perhaps a little bit like King Abdullah in Jordan. I mean these are countries with no resources except Morocco as tourism and They can't buy off the population with oil revenue The king obviously has some Religious legitimacy right because he claims that he's a direct descendant of the Prophet and He was opening up even before the Arab Spring. Is that correct? I mean he was making some moves in a So is he is he a genuine is he generally on the way to a Constitutional monarchy or is it sort of window dressing? I don't see a constitutional monarchy as as exists for instance in Britain Springing out in a constitutional monarchy in Britain in 1832 or something. Yes. Yeah, definitely 1832 would be a good good marker Morocco Yes, the person of the king in Morocco is inviolable Can't be criticized One can't speak ill of him. He is the state this Raises questions of its own True in Thailand as well, right? Yes, so I mean you can have a call you can have a sure quite a democratic state absolutely, right? Absolutely that that I was going to say is not really a big problem in Morocco. What is a problem in Morocco is And it's a problem for the region for the Maghreb is Western Sahara It's a question which in Morocco one isn't allowed to raise Western Sahara disputed territory according to United Nations and every other country in the world is Waiting to see if it will become independent or not for 20 years the United Nation have been promising a referendum But in those 20 years the time hasn't been quite right You can see where this is going Nowhere very fast For Morocco It's a source of pride the Western Sahara is part of Morocco. It's integral. There's no question about it being disputed territory That is a serious problem. Morocco spends a great deal of money Policing these enormous berms sandwalls that the Romans built around Tunisia 2000 years earlier today we have Generation second generation are born in refugee camps in Tinduph in Algeria now That's where we will find radicalization growing indeed Al Qaeda in the Maghreb. We know have gone to Tinduph They have been recruiting there There have been Spanish and Italian aid workers kidnapped from the refugee camps in Tinduph Not by Al Qaeda as it happens, but by other groups working at a northern Mali It's a great problem. I think that while Morocco is unwilling to discuss even the possibility of a greater degree of autonomy for the Sahrawi people in Western Sahara We're not going to make any progress on on the issue now. Why are they there because Western Sahara has the largest phosphates supply in the world number one Somewhere around 80 percent of world phosphates can be found in Western Sahara. What are they used for? You want to you want to better yields for your crops? It's phosphates which are going to be the big thing in 50 60 years from now Phosphates we're not going to want to eat any less and the population of the world is getting more It's phosphates, which would be the black or in the case of phosphates the white powder Which really speaks volumes far more than the the tons of cocaine that are traveling across the Sahara today Phosphates are used in in just about every field of industry and they're a finite resource There is no substitute for phosphates at the moment and the Moroccans are not going to give up those Phosphate mines now Morocco doesn't have to worry of course because nobody in the international community is doing anything about this But they might want to worry about radicalization on their borders But what about and what about just the general project of the king to sort of open up more space Politically, I think it's credible. I think that the king is making inroads towards Opening up. I think they're credible and I think that he's very fortunate that He is beloved in the country Perhaps not by a hundred percent of subjects, but then who is? Yeah, so but it's going to be a while before the subjects turn into citizens. Yes Great, we'll turn it open up to you if you have a question. Can you wait for the microphone identify yourself? And Annie is holding the microphone raise your hand if you have a question this gentleman here Thank you. I'm Francisco Martio. I Run a counter-radicalization foundation in Pakistan You mentioned the fact that the role of the international or at least the Western community was to help Formulate a national dialogue in Mali, but I think you also mentioned that you know We really don't know who the actors in Mali are and we should invite to the table. So how do you see that role? You know going forward if we really don't know who we invite How do we actually encourage them to hold the national dialogue? Can I ask a sort of follow-up question? Is why do we care about Mali at all? I mean given the 14 million population and I mean is it what is it? Is there a reason we should? Who do we talk to It's it's it's not fair to say we really don't have any idea. We have some idea and there are people You know I might include myself among them who spend a considerable amount of time looking at the situation across to Sahara We do know who to talk to but the trouble is the government in Bamako isn't willing to talk to everybody I think this is this is a central problem as much as the West is ignorant Perhaps in broad terms about with whom we should be speaking There's an unwillingness with the government in the south, which is the bigger problem Mali is not strategically important in and of itself, but As a place through which there is massive amounts of drugs traveling it becomes relevant transnational security Transnational insecurity should I say and crime go hand-in-hand and I think that's a problem in Europe as much as it is just for the citizens in northern Mali To be honest, I'm not I'm not that optimistic that we're going to have the national dialogue that I think is required That that's my honest assessment. I don't believe it's going to happen because there isn't the political will in Bamako It doesn't mean that it shouldn't happen much the same way the elections are going to go ahead But I don't think they should we have to deal with the situation as we find it And we have to continue to apply pressure for those solutions, which I think will Produce the best long-term results You know in Benghazi what what's your sort of take about the issue of What happened there is it and what is the situation in Benghazi today What happened in Benghazi was the four Americans were killed in an adjunct office Including an ambassador, which as we know hadn't happened for decades. It was very tragic not least for the families of those involved What happened in Benghazi is not central however to the future of Libya I am a little tired, frankly of the continuing debate But then as you may have gathered I'm not from these parts originally I understand inside the Beltway discussions of who's responsible can go on for years And while we have another inquiry as to who said what went to whom and why We are really missing an opportunity to speak to the Libyans about what they need for the future of the country That's what I say. Yeah The British ambassador to being attacked in June Ask with ask with and he actually went to my high school. Yeah, he That's not why he was attacked. No. No, there's been a very legitimate reason to attack him but you know the British clearly were concerned and and basically prevented people from staying overnight from that point forward, I mean isn't forgetting about the issue of the talking points for a minute, which is obviously a big issue in DC, but was the issue of the extent to which it was foolhardy to have that kind of List CI listening post in a sort of undefended manner in Benghazi with people being overnight staying overnight or is that you know Should there have been a better situation on the security? well When you have a compound which is overrun and for people die then Obviously security should have been better Should it have been there at all? I mean I can't really speak for the American intelligence community But I would say probably yes And we have to be on the ground listening to people. We have to be on the ground talking to people Nobody said the job of intelligence gathering was easy or trouble-free if you don't want trouble you don't go to war It's a difficult situation. Yes people will die There it is it doesn't mean that we should now withdraw and and not wish to be involved any further Sure, indeed the opposite should be true that we should become more heavily engaged as we realize the Seriousness or the security threat in Libya last week. There was a report that a group of People associated with al-Qaeda were planning to attack the US Embassy in Cairo seemed to be that was from state From Mina the Egyptian state news service You know al-Qaeda or groups affiliated to it have been pretty active active in the Sinai they have attacked a number of hotels How would you assess and of course is you know amen al-Sawari's in Egyptian he runs al-Qaeda Many of the senior people who are still alive in al-Qaeda or Egyptian Is there any chance that these groups and you know the history of courses that in the 90s these groups killed about a Thousand people and there was a Luxor massacre and in 97 and that kind of basically put a put the kibosh on these groups for a while Is there any Likelihood that these groups might come back because it seems to me that Egyptians have sort of lived through a pretty bad experience with these Groups in a relatively recent past and yet at the same time You know the Salafis have 25% of the parliamentary seats something that the US intelligence community seems to have completely Missed as a potential So how would you score the kind of political environment on the sort of Salafi? jihadist side in Egypt right now Salafi groups Not the same as jihadi groups. I think it's important to say although there can be an overlap between them Just because one is a Salafi. It doesn't mean that one is a violent jihadi. They're different and it must be must be very clear on this Islam 101 would be very good reading for any number of officials in this town London and beyond They the violent jihadi groups are certainly on the increase in Egypt that of that. There's no doubt. Why is that? Many reasons a big one is because the Muslim Brotherhood have failed to get a grip of security in their own country Now, I don't care if there's a Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt or not frankly I don't care who's in government as long as they do a good job of governing and that's what's absent at the moment in Egypt The Muslim Brotherhood have failed to deal with security They have failed to deal with the economy. These are two very major issues and while we have this uncertainty there will be an increase in Security threats in the Sinai for example now will they come back and pose a threat to the state? I don't think so what they do pose a threat to of course is Tourism yeah, a very important source of revenue in Egypt They don't pose a threat yet for instance to Suez canal revenues, which is another very important source They don't have the capability to do anything major in that sense But then if we think back to 1997 and the terrorist attack at the Temple of Hatshepsu when 47 tourists were murdered in a very very bloody fashion That was easy to do because it was a remote tomb Guarded by a few of these tourist police who if anybody's been to Egypt yours likely to find them asleep as you are on alert It's a problem, but it's not an existential problem, but the right kind of attack you're saying could put you know Kill that what remains of the tourism economy, which is yeah, I'm yeah, how do you? What's the term of the present government and I mean obviously they're doing a terrible job But it seems to me that almost anybody would do a terrible job because the problems are so bad I Think the the biggest problem that the Muslim brotherhood face are not the problems of Egypt, but it's the problem of themselves And what I mean by that is that they have displayed no ability to grasp the economic woes of the country It's all well and good saying that Islam is the answer, but we must go back and ask Well, what was the question and in Egypt today the question is not one of religion Nobody's suggesting that Egypt will become a less religious society The problem was one of economics and the Muslim brotherhood have failed to get anybody on board their team as far as I've seen That knows anything about International monetary affairs. Yeah, they don't have any grasp. It seems of domestic Economics these are very serious problems, and that's what they need to deal with in the back here Thanks, I'm Jack Henman. Hi, I've been before about this Where are you from sir the State Department, and I was I had a couple questions one. I was curious about I think we may touch on this before about part of the problem all over the West of Africa is that even with the colonial regimes gone even if even if they're if the dictatorships were gone Almost all the populations on the coast and all these northern and southern people the people in the central areas of Taurig peoples that They're a tiny minority Numerically, and they don't have much power even in a perfectly fair even a totally democratic system They'd be on the short end of it, and I'm just wondering You know we talked before there was a At one point I think there was talk about at the end of the colonial regimes or some point about making an Interior state that in fact was made up of those people which would be more unified now I don't think that's doesn't sound like that's possible, but What what do you think is gonna be outcome of how to how to get those people? More fairly treated by the coastal population of the cities where the people are and the other thing is I've been in Jordan I've been a long time so I've been in Morocco, but I lived in Spain, but the population balance of those I know there's Berber and a twerk in an Arab, but I'm not really sure of the proportions in those countries in Jordan Jordan and in Morocco or both Talking sort of a gradual development towards democracy, which seems to be seems like they are doing it to me Actually, like you're saying but they that was used as a defense by regimes had no intention of Changing, you know shifting power at all in the South that was constantly talked about we're gonna bring the blacks up to equal citizenship But but it'll take time and the In in Jordan the population is almost 80% Palestinian So the East Bankers if there was a totally free election and everything totally fair is no retribution No, nothing the bed that the East Bankers would lose control of their own country There's an inherent difficulty In in their population. Is there a population problem like that in an inherent imbalance in Morocco that the Kings on? You know one side of the other of the question of the interior of these countries first You know the the interior of all of the Saharan countries and Sahelian countries is is remote I'm just trying to remember there's a line in in in Sahara From a 10th century traveler, I mean throughout the centuries people have described it as a difficult and desolate land It is very far from the centers of power And I think it's the disenfranchisement of the populations there, which is a major problem All politics is local well, yeah, that may be but if you don't have any representation because you're so remote from those Sometimes coastal as you say centers of power It's going to lead to long-term problems, and they might be small populations But just as the number of radical Islamists in the world are but a drop in the ocean when compared to the total Muslim population of the globe it doesn't take too many Idiots with rocket propelled grenades to create a big fuss. I think that's that's a big problem As to the balance in Morocco. No, I don't see that the king has to worry about that No, it's it's not exactly homogenous, but it's we don't have the same Differences as you do elsewhere Thank you very much Andrew Turner from the UK Amen your point your sort central thesis is all politics are local which you just repeated there. I wonder whether is given the Porous borders they cross boundary Migration of people over time over Substantial periods and eras and the lack of representation down in Bamako in Mali in particular But it applies to other places in the Sahara and Sahel itself as well. Is there a An opportunity here for a model of a sort of federated and Decentralized and specially administered form of government which does provide a degree of linkage back to a center But that still provides quite a lot of freedom and autonomy to those in the more disparate regions Not just on security, but on economic pastoral social boundaries, but a loose connection back into a federal center Yes Short answer Yeah, absolutely. It's a very good question It you're you're right that there is a great deal of complexity here with with the Areas you've mentioned but yes, I do think that there is there is an opportunity to discuss the idea of Federated system What we don't have in the region which I think is is if I may coming out of your question is cooperation In 1989 there was something called the Arab Maghreb Union was started Which was supposed to have five of the countries up there from Morocco down To form an economic Union Nothing came of it, but it's a great idea. What is eco awesome? What does that stand for? What does it do? Well? Echo us is a West African Economic Union The AMU the problem going back to your borders For instance between Morocco and Algeria the borders been closed since 1994 The interior ministers didn't meet interior ministers of Morocco Algeria Tunisia Mauritania and Mali met last month in Rabat So the Algerians have to fly as they would anyway But the idea that your government ministers can't even meet on the border at that meeting last month they discussed With serious intent the idea of reopening the Moroccan Algerian border, but there's no regional economic integration There's no regional cooperation at the moment There was in southern Algeria an intelligence sharing base set up in in the in Taman Rasset It was set up. It wasn't fully functioning. That was supposed to get together Intelligence operators from the countries of the region It was blown up within the first month of it opening by an Al Qaeda affiliated group Since which time I don't believe they've reopened it But certainly I I would propose at least for the the the immediate troubles on the ground of radical groups Operating freely in the Sahara a much higher degree of regional cooperation and it needs to be done soon To gentlemen back here The new tomorrow trans-Saharan states The question is this I am Italian we went through transition after the second world war and was a success story for all Western Europe then there was the Berlin Wall fall it was a success story of Transition for the former communist countries now the question is is your opinion Positive or negative about this kind of transition because my impression is that we had a change But we don't have a transition in these countries So in in some way we will end up giving in some way support to the Algerians and the Israeli Opinion that this change was a mistake in some way Yeah, I mean and sort of a corollary of that is you know The reason that the transition in Eastern Europe kind of worked is there was an agreement in Eastern Europe About what the transition should be to which was something that didn't look very dissimilar from Western Europe that doesn't seem to be Yeah, it's There are parallels for sure, but then don't forget in Eastern Europe. We were looking at a monolithic system I mean everything was was it was a communist system from Moscow with satellites You know the Middle East is not like that We have but the point the point is is that people agreed about what the next step should look like so Problem in these places that there may not be an agreement about what the next step should look like We quite but then the countries that have overthrown their leaders in the past two years Each have very distinct Histories and very distinct cultures which in Eastern Europe didn't exist in the same sense that yes The cultures are different, but the political culture had been the same under communism in North Africa and the Middle East We're dealing with very different political systems both under the dictators and since There is no agreement because there can't be any agreement each of the countries is different And they must be treated as unique entities if you're to have any chance of understanding them while we lump countries together I don't know who was the historian who said or rather that was said of all historians. They're either lumpers or splitters It's good to put things together. Yes, but also it's important to separate them to see the differences. I think each Country should be should be dealt with quite separately. For example the Italians in Libya they did a Very credible job in a very short time period of infrastructure project such as road building in Libya the roads of the Italians built in the 1920s 30s are better than the roads that have been built in the region today As it happens, they were they were they were carefully accounted for they were budgeted from Rome So that the last payment for the Trans Libyan road was made in 1942 Now the Italians didn't build that so that farmers could get to market Of course, they did that so they could move their troops across the country as it happens in 1942 It was the British troops that were moving across the country But but they had the Italian infrastructure on which to do this I think infrastructure in North Africa is I don't think infrastructure is dire in North Africa I think there's an opportunity there for regional cooperation that would benefit the economy economies of the countries of the region I'll take a couple of these questions in the back. We'll bunch them together here Andrew Evans with the Washington Free Beacon you mentioned that Molly is not in itself a strategic interest of the United States For example of the West one one area where it might become a strategic Interest however is if a Q. I am gains a foothold. So could you go over briefly? What is the current status of al-Qaeda? In Molly and is there the the potential for Molly to become a sort of stronghold or a You know a base area like a Yemen or a and certainly not becoming like Somalia But potentially moving in that direction. Is that a possibility? Yeah, we're taking all the one in back Good afternoon. I'm Scott Morgan with ready-go-lantern enterprises in the block of use eagle We have noticed in recent weeks a very aggressive platform policy by Chad You know sending troops to Molly Assisting Nigerian security operations in the Northeast and part of the country and its role in the car crisis I was wondering if you actually speak to what other role of what you see a Chad playing in this situation Yes, I think al-Qaeda and the Maghreb and other radical groups in northern Mali are a Question that America needs to address certainly. I'm not suggesting for a second that we should ignore the security threat that exists Can they gain a foothold? Yes, and I think they could come back tomorrow Don't forget there are what does come back mean I was going to say there are parts of northern Mali where the French troops have not yet visited There are we didn't we mustn't think for a second that all of northern Mali is under the control of the central government The French troops that are in place. It's not there are bits of northern Mali which are still beyond the pail The role of Chadi and troops well Chadi and troops were used in northeastern Mali alongside the French Because the French were desperate to keep the Malian army out of northeast Northeast of their own country why as I mentioned because of the the history of the alleged history of summary Executions of brutality in the area Meated out by the national Malian army on its own citizens The Malian army is not a creditable force There's another reason they were kept out of the northeast of their own countries because they wouldn't be very effective there The Chadiens have done a pretty good job in northern Mali alongside the French and alongside the French bit is very important Chadi and troops have already started withdrawing in large numbers There were four Chadi and troops killed last week in a suicide attack. What we're facing in northern Mali today is an Insurgency there are suicide attacks taking place in Mali on a daily basis So when we think that the French did a great job. Yes, they may have pushed back Against these people who had taken over two-thirds of Mali. Yes, we may have denied the enemy safe haven in the short term but not universally and when we may have the major Settlements covered the major towns of northern Mali have been relatively secured as I say apart from suicide attacks Which happened on a daily basis But by no means is the whole of northern Mali under the control of the central government with the under the ages of the French So yes, it remains a problem, but I think we need to use if we're gonna have counterterrorism policy in northern Mali It's got to be smart counterterrorism policy We'll take some questions at the front any these two gentlemen over here My name is Colin Flowers. I'm with the International Center for Religion Diplomacy I'm trying to get a grasp on the character and influence of Salafism and Mali right now and kind of As you said, there's many different strains or brands of Salafism Maybe like in Egypt we could say we saw Zaheiri kind of depart from out Depart from the rest of Salafism in Egypt to kind of go global. Maybe you could say So maybe like Salafist jihadism global jihadism like that Maybe that we see in al-Qaeda and Islamic Maghreb in some way, but we also have in Egypt You know the Muslim Brotherhood who's also Salafist kind of offering an alternative to the government and providing social services And that kind of brain of Salafism, and I'm wondering is there anything like that in Mali? Do we see this kind of fragmentation of Salafism where you have This kind of Salafist jihadism In al-Qaeda and Islamic Maghreb, but is there this kind of Muslim Brotherhood ish Salafist alternative that is providing social services because like you said al-Qaeda and Islamic Maghreb is in this cocaine business You know they're getting money through that are they providing social services And is there some kind of alternative that can provide social services because as we said it's not just ideology that's creating their influence It's also the fact that they provide in some capacity for the people Thank thank you. I'm just picking up on your exam scoring earlier on your piece. Can you identify yourself? Sorry, Edward Moore has a UK embassy One country I spoke about at all very much is Algeria and other folk in the academic community and listening to these sort of sessions have Described the relationship between Algeria and Mali very similar to that of Pakistan and Afghanistan Algeria being the big brother and meddling very much in what northern Mali and what is going on there Given the sort of great complex cocktail what's happening in Algeria the aging population The enormous geographical area that it holds the hydrocarbons the Western diaspora working in the hydrocarbons industry And indeed after the alaminas attack I'm sort of cozying up between the UK and the US and Algeria on information sharing I'm quite keen to understand your grade for Algeria and indeed the sort of short to medium term prognosis You've got in that country given those factors The religious question first I don't know if it's worth pointing out my undergraduate degrees in theology. So I spent a number of years studying Christianity Judaism and Islam in all their very many forms And and the one thing that I remember came to me from long before my course And that was my grandmother's words that the devil himself can quote scripture for his own ends it's The the question of religion in northern Mali is a very interesting one and a very complex one I would say that that there is there a Muslim brotherhood type alternative not yet in Mali no The jihadi influences are almost all were almost all external. Let's go back 15 years Today, of course, they have taken off and got roots of their own which and I'm more local So it would be wrong just to think of Malians as having this nice fuzzy touchy-feely Sufi tradition, although that remains very strong and is There space for such a Muslim brotherhood type political party. I suppose there may be but I don't know that It's necessary. I don't think that the biggest problem again is going back to this lack of representation The people simply have no government in the north of country Social services you mentioned it's interesting that in Egypt now, of course when the Muslim brotherhood are in power They're providing far fewer social services than they managed as an opposition group So, you know be careful what you wish for now. They have all the power They also have the responsibility and they have the problems of supplying these services Services in northern Mali no nobody's providing them what al Qaeda and other groups are providing is Employment, they're providing very dangerous employment, but very profitable employment You can make more money in a month of ferrying drugs across the Sahara for one of these groups Then you would a lifetime working in any legitimate form in the country Algeria How's it doing well, I suppose we need to decide in what regard we're talking opening up politically D Security b-minus The attack on an aminus was significant because it was the first time in recent history that such an installation was attacked or targeted Algeria of all the countries in North Africa and I'm including Sahara and the Sahel here has the longest had the longest colonial occupation 132 years of French rule where Algeria ceased to be Algeria was part of mainland France. It's unique in the experience of the Middle East that it wasn't a province It wasn't a protectorate. It was incorporated into France proper As a result of this long and very deep colonial occupation The Algerians remain I think most chari of all countries in North Africa about outside interference What you and I might call assistants or willing partners. They see very clearly as Interference and they're very keen to keep it out The only reason I think that they agreed to have this security sharing apparatus in Taman rasset is because they believed they could control it It's the most opaque regime in North Africa It's the one that we in the West know least and not surprising because we have paid Precious little attention to it for many many years. What kind of regime is it? How would you describe it opaque beyond opaque? I mean, what is it? It's Algeria since independence in 1956-62 very bloody war of independence since that time every president of Algeria has had a direct connection To that war. They've all by one been military men or ministers of defense We are now facing a situation in Algeria where another generation are coming through who feel no obligation Towards the grand deeds of those who fought for independence. It's a new generation coming through and the old guard Are not willing to give up power the old guard don't understand how things are changing It's like the introduction of the internet to our grandparents It's a very slow painful process trying to work out the internet when you haven't had to deal with it for all of your life In Algeria there has been this clique a military dominated clique at the top of the system right down to the bottom of the system They're in every field of the economy as the military are in Egypt And they are not prepared to give up power and they don't understand why they should do they have periodic sort of Elections of some kind or that are quasi-elections. I mean how does it work quasi-elections? Yes. Yeah but not Well, let's see to be fair that the Algerians would tell you and they've told me indeed when I Last made statements about the lack of democracy in Algeria. I was tackled by some people from the embassy Who may be here again today morning if you are They said well look we've opened up in Algeria now we have opposition groups. They used to be to now There are 42 Political parties in Algeria. Okay, but the two major ones are of the same opinion and the other 40 get a handful of votes a Piece it was around sort of Arab awakening in Algeria Yes, I mean I'm any hesitant because I don't really like the term because in Algeria there have been more protests perhaps before 2010 and in any other country of North Africa in the prior decade there have been literally thousands of demonstrations in Algeria Again when I say we pay precious little attention to the country, you know, we have a very well developed System of workers groups in Algeria. These are the people that protesting. There are union movements in Algeria that have been protesting But they're protesting not so much for democracy as Muhammad Bouazizi when he set fire to himself in Tunisia wasn't protesting about democracy It's demands for economic reform that has been driving the situation in Algeria as much as Tunisia and Egypt You might hitch the wagon of democracy on the end of that train But it's the economy that's driving it forward every time any other questions Take this gentleman here W. Group EIR magazine Just a question about Mali and Niger as a comparison. You mentioned the lack of desire for discussions on internally in Mali Niger did it differently in terms of their military at least to absorb people into the military But not as groups. They were split up and they just became part of the military now. Does that account for the difference or Was Niger less of a track for the Cocaine and so on which was a big complicating I'm going to tackle one question about as well, which is Boko Haram How would you assess how they're doing or are they going to sort of get out of Nigeria or are they going to just focus on? Okay, Niger and Nigeria. I'll do them both in 60 seconds or less In a situation in Niger. Yes, people are saying is there potential there for destabilization of the country In the same way that it's happened in Mali. Yes, of course, there's potential It hasn't been such an important drug route, but then Niger has Something which as far as we know Mali doesn't have in great quantity and that's uranium In Niger the main road Need to know basis In Niger the main north-south highway. I mean talk about infrastructure. This road was built for right to the uranium mines It's called the uranium highway. It allows movement of uranium from the north of the country south this has a very important role in the local economy Not just the the uranium itself, but the infrastructure which could always be improved in any country of the region But I think Niger is fortunate in many ways and I don't really see that Niger is going to go the same way as Mali I don't I don't see it as a possibility It doesn't have the degree of instability that Mali has been suffering from and also in Niger I mentioned very early on about electoral turnout People turn out for elections in Niger are much greater numbers than they have ever done in Mali So I think there's a greater degree of political participation in the country, which will always I think increase security Boko Haram in Nigeria are they going to break out? Well, I mean they have Spiritual allies in other of the jihadi groups across the region, but they're not linked. They're not connected I mean they they may be Involved in information sharing exercises with some of the other terrorist groups, but I I don't see them breaking out Of course They don't have to break out to be a very major problem as we've seen in recent days that the government has locked down parts of northern Nigeria because it's simply out of control The Nigerians have a have a whole basket of serpents to deal with in northern Nigeria Boko Haram is just the one with the sharpest fangs That was a great presentation for which we're grateful. Thank you