 Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a military operation in Ukraine with explosions heard across the country, and Ukraine's foreign minister warned of a full-scale invasion. Explosions rocked the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, and air raids sounded for a second morning today. Now, as it was reported that Russian troops had advanced just 20 miles outside Kyiv, the development comes after weeks of intense diplomacy and the imposition of Western sanctions on Russia failed to deter Putin, who had massed over 150 troops, or 150,000 troops, I beg your pardon, along the borders of Ukraine. Now, Russia had demanded an end to NATO's eastward expansion, and said Ukrainian membership of the US-led Atlantic Military Alliance was unacceptable. Well, joining us to speak more on this is Justin Higgins, a former US policy advisor. Thank you so much, Justin, for joining us. Thank you for having me, Marianne. Great. So many people really didn't see this coming. A lot of people had envisaged that Russia might invade Ukraine, but they did not necessarily think that it was going to happen this soon, even though we saw the Russians advancing towards Ukraine. I spoke to a couple of people who actually still are surprised that Putin went ahead with this, but what are your thoughts so far? Well, I'm surprised that it's such a full-scale invasion, because a lot of people didn't think that President Putin would try and take over the whole country, even if it was temporarily. I think another thing that has been very surprising is the role of the media in the West to take Putin's propagandas and lies and promote them as truth. So one of those examples is Putin is saying that this attack is due to an expansion of NATO. That is not true. It could not be further from the truth. NATO is a defensive alliance. It has always been a defensive alliance. People have known behind closed doors and talking quietly that Ukraine was never going to join in an immediate fashion or even medium-term fashion. That was a long-term goal, 10, 20 years, maybe. Putin is invading, and it's a stark example of imperialism. He is killing men, women, and children to just gain some power for his country, and it is despicable. Now, many wonder why Vladimir Putin is so eager to invade Ukraine and to throw in Volensky, knowing that there are so many economic sanctions that will come. Or could it be that he had been planning this for ages, like many people have said, and he's ready for whatever sanctions will be coming? So I think it's both, Mary, and those are two good very points. First, he thinks that the United States isn't declined, which if you look at how the United States and the West has really rallied behind the United States, could not be further from the truth. Second, he has built up a storage of $650 billion in cash that he can use to withstand the pain of economic sanctions. And then third, he didn't want Ukraine to continue to get economic development, continue to try and create a better lives for them and their families through getting closer to the West. So he viewed it as sanctions won't hurt, number one. Number two, the West is weak. Number three, I need to act now or Ukraine will eventually be in the EU. And there will be nothing for me to be able to do to stop this. But we hear a protest across Russia, meaning that a lot of people are not necessarily on his side. But again, he's made people to believe that he's trying to save Ukraine. He's trying to bring them some sort of a good life. But that doesn't seem to be the case, as Russia has already lost about 450 soldiers as of today. Yes, well, Russia doesn't have shows like plus politics or CNN in their state. They don't have free and independent and critical media of the government. What they have in Russia is a large propaganda apparatus. So people in Ukraine are fed Putin-wise that Ukraine is filled with evil people and that Ukraine is going to at greff on Russia. And a lot of the people believe that. However, not everybody. Ukraine and Russia are very close culturally. Russian culture comes from Kiev in a lot of ways. In many Russians, most Russians don't want war. They don't want their sons dying on the battlefield. And they don't want their sons committing war crimes by killing women and children for absolutely no reason. Interesting. Let's look at some of the statements that Vladimir Putin has made, especially talking about other countries. He's warned, I'd like to quote him directly, that there will be severe consequences if anyone tried to get involved. But we also heard as yesterday that 7,000 troops were sent from the U.S. into Europe, even though we're not certain if they will turn to boots on the ground. So those will definitely not turn to boots on the ground. There will not be any NATO forces in Ukraine. That is full stop. That will not happen. What Putin is trying to warn against, and he's basically alluding to potential nuclear war for people that get involved in Ukraine, is he wants to prevent his most costly reality from coming true, which is the U.K., France, EU countries, Germany, the United States, setting up a long-term and robust counterinsurgency. That means giving Ukrainians who are fighting for freedom, who are fighting for economic development, who are fighting against imperialism the weapons they need, the medical supplies they need, the food they need to be able to kill as many Russians as possible and make it painful for Putin. So you have some in the U.S. as a result of his comments, not wanting to maybe send the weapons that are needed by our Ukrainian brothers and sisters, by these Ukrainian freedom fighters, by these heroes in a large way, because they don't want to piss off Putin. But the reason why his threats really won't work is Russia is much weaker than it was in 1963 when the United States stood up to Russia when Russia tried to invade Cuba and put nuclear weapons in Cuba. So we've done it in the past when Russia was a much stronger country. Now Russia is very much on the decline and we are very much more powerful than we were back then. So we will stand up to Putin and the U.S. Congress and President Biden will eventually send Ukraine the weapons that they need. So we're hearing more sanctions coming. We heard Boris Johnson with his own sanctions we heard the President of the United States yesterday. But in terms of international laws, President Biden had said that Putin here, in this case, is the aggressor, meaning that the people in Ukraine they just woke up to this invasion. So does all of what he's doing right now amount to war crimes? And will he be tried in that regard? Maybe in the future. I will leave that to the legal experts, but I do think that there is going to be a strong push from the UK, you mentioned Boris Johnson. I wouldn't be surprised if the United States also brought this case to the ICC, International Crime Court, and that Putin probably could be found guilty. And that's just the starters. The Western sanctions that you mentioned are financial. So in addition to bringing a case against Putin and maybe he's found guilty, he wouldn't be able to leave Russia again. So that's one thing that could happen. Number two that could happen is, Russia is a mafia state. It's not this democratic government. It's Putin and his thugs that are oligarchs. So the second form of sanctions could be to freeze all of the oligarchs assets in countries like the UK, United States. The third step could be not only to kick their kids out of Western schools, which needs to happen tomorrow, but kick their kids out of these countries. The fourth step could be ratcheting up financial sanctions. We need Germany and other EU countries to support kicking Russia off of Swiss. And then the fifth step- Germany we hear is dragging its feet. I mean, even the UK has been accused of taking so much money from these oligarchs. In fact, some of them even leave there. So is it going to be easy for them to swiftly get into action? No, and you're right. The UK should have acted, Marianne. They should have acted years ago. They should have clamped down on these oligarchs because the reason why it's going to be difficult is it will create some financial pain. Americans are ready. A recent poll showed that a majority of Americans are willing to pay a hefty price to support the democracy in Ukraine, even if that means higher gasoline prices at the pump. Germans don't appear to be ready. The government in Germany, it's disgraceful. It's despicable. They are worried more so about their very high, the highest standard of living, the best economy in Europe. They're worried more about that than actually fighting for democracy, fighting for people who are fighting for economic development and freedom. So it remains to be seen whether the German politicians are going to continue to be weak and put money over everything or whether or not they are going to actually stand up and do their responsibility, which is to hold Putin and Russia accountable. Now we hear that the Russians have, one way or the other, not necessarily been able to win the airports, which was their targets to take over. We saw that the Ukrainians fought really well to be able to keep the airports, but then it doesn't in any way mean that the Russians will stop advancing. Now, if we're talking about probability here, now if they were to take over Ukraine and one way or the other depose Volensky, does this mean that Ukraine will be on its own? Does this mean that the West has failed Ukraine? Being that they have been declaring their support in the past years for Ukraine and now Ukraine needs the West the most, but then we do not know, can we say that the West must have failed Ukraine? The West needs to provide more weapons today, not tomorrow. Russia has invaded with a third, so 50,000 of the 150,000 troops that you mentioned start the segment. If Russia were to put in all of their troops, they could take over Ukraine. That is a reality of the situation. It's unfortunate, but it would happen. In addition to that, the West would not have failed if the West basically supports the guerrilla warfare and freedom fighters in Ukraine that will remain. So if Russia were to take over Ukraine, that is not the end of the fighting. Ukrainians want their freedom. They will fight for a long, long time as long as they have food, they have medical supplies, they have weapons, they have gasoline, they have vehicles, they have intelligence. So that is incumbent upon the West to basically support these counterinsurgencies, these guerrilla warfighters that you see all throughout all of these different types of conflicts. And if Ukraine can keep it up for a year or two years with the support of the West, it will create enough dead Russians sent back to Russia in body bags where Putin will have to stop this invasion. So the West won't fail. The only way the West fails is if they do not support Ukrainian freedom fighters and Russia is able to essentially end the fight. Let's talk about the economics of this all. I mean, we hear today that, you know, suddenly global markets are being distorted by this war. Is it gonna really reverberate, especially for those who need gas? I mean, the UK, as we speak, is having the gas prices go to the roof and so many people are dying of cold because they're unable to pay for their gas and for their heating. So I don't know. Personally, I'm taking a more maximalist approach. I think that the UK, Germany, US, the sanctioned Russia gas and oil, I don't think that that is gonna happen. So there will be financial pain, markets will be hurt. As you saw, the Russian markets immediately dropped 33% two days ago. They rebounded 22% yesterday. Same thing happened with the United States markets not nearly as bad. I think we lost two or 3% and we've started to rebound. That is because the West does not want to put in these economic sanctions that target oil and gas. So there will be pain felt because as you know, this is happening everywhere all over Africa too. Supply change of stress, inflation is rising. So this type of conflict will exacerbate that but I don't see any type of global depression or any type of massive economic impact happening based on the unwillingness of the West to move forward with tough sanctions that are required. Let's talk about the legacy that Putin will be leaving for himself after all of this is done depending on which way it goes. I mean, many are plotting this. Some all others are frowning at it. But then there was a court released by the Daily Mail today by Professor Mark Galasti. I hope I got his name right. Now he's actually the Russian president's biographer and he did say that President Putin is not a mad despot as we all think he is, but that he's evil. And this is someone coming from someone who's his biographer. I would be scared to say that but then this is what he put out on the Daily Mail today. What legacy do we see Putin leaving behind and might this one way or the other threaten his presidency? So Mark Galasti is a very well-known, respected Putin historian, Russianologist. The legacy of Putin will be number one, a murderer. He's done this in 2008 in Georgia, 2014 in Ukraine. He's doing it again, killing innocent women, men and children for no other reasons than them wanting to not have to deal with imperialism. So that's number one. Number two though, if you take that aside, put that away for a second. His legacy is going to be making these Eastern European countries that weren't members of NATO, that were kind of in the middle between Russia and the United States, much closer to the United States. We can look at Sweden, we can look at Finland. They are now talking about potentially joining NATO. The support of Russia in those countries has plummeted. Look at what he's done to Ukraine before 2014. Ukrainians didn't really have ill will towards the Russian government or towards Russia. Now they do, they're fighting to the death to prevent Russia from influencing their country. President Zelensky, who's on the screen right now is very, very brave. That's because he has citizens that really hate Putin and hate the Russian government. So at the end of the day, that's going to be Putin's legacy is he made all of these Eastern European countries that were kind of in the middle between the United States and Russia. He's made them much closer to the United States and much closer to Western way of life. You said earlier on that, you spoke especially for the US saying that there might not be boots on the ground, but there are people who were saying that this might just become another world war. And I'm wondering, is this what the world needs right now? Yesterday, just before the Europa League game between, I think, Napoli and FC Barcelona, they held up a banner saying no war. A lot of people are really scared. I mean, and I know that, I mean, for Nigerians, Africans are being stuck right now in some bunkers or underground places in Ukraine and they're unable to leave that country because they're afraid that if they get into a flight or a plane, it might be shut down. I mean, what's the guarantee that this might not become a full-scale war? Well, there is never a guarantee, but as long as Putin doesn't attack NATO countries, I highly doubt that this becomes a full-scale war. You have other people who just want the United States and West to let Putin do what he's doing and not confront him. Those people, if they got their way, they would be living in a world that is just dark and controlled by authoritarian regimes like President Putin and President Xi in China because, Marianne, the reason why this is important, not only for the people in Ukraine, it's important for the people in Nigeria, the people in Kenya, the people in the United States because it sends a message to countries like China and countries like Russia. If you try and take over property or land, it's not yours. If you try and invade Taiwan, if you try and invade a place in Africa or a place in the United States, not only will there be a military consequence, but the Western world and countries that actually represent the rules of order, they will stand up and there will be a very, very yet unclear economic consequence for your invasion. Imperialism is not the way of the world anymore. So standing up to Ukraine shows these authoritarian leaders in other states that imperialism will have consequences. You tell me that standing up for Ukraine is sending a message, but is it really sending a message? Because I heard an argument today on London Radio where they were asking, do these sanctions really work? Because it doesn't seem like it's a deterrence of any sorts. We're seeing China and Hong Kong deal with the same issue. We're seeing Japan do the same thing with Taiwan just as you said. Are they really working? Because I'm really not sure if they are. Sanctions from one country alone will not work. Sanctions from the world, and we are just at the start of these sanction regimes. So if they do continue to get more difficult and tougher, and if Europe follows the lead of the United States and we work together, you see Japan, you see Taiwan, you see other countries in the Asia Pacific also joining these sanctions regimes. In a year, in two years, in three years, Russia's economy will be decimated. So that's the long-term goal. But how many people have to suffer before these sanctions begin to work? I'm just being realistic here. We've seen fathers, you know, separated, men separated from their families, from the ages of 18. We saw the martial law in Ukraine. So the women and the children were allowed to go into hiding, but the men were all given arms to fight. But then how many lives have to be lost for these sanctions to really gain grounds or, you know, force something to happen or force the hands of these dictators? Well, the way to force the hand of these dictators, Marianne, where the bully you don't negotiate, you punch them in the face to get them off your back, is to give Ukrainian stingers that advance US military weaponry so that they can shoot down helicopters and planes. It's to give them javelin so that they can continue to shoot down tanks. It's to arm them. It's to give them medical supplies. It's to give them food. It's to give them the equipment that they need to kill as many Russians as possible for as long as possible. That is the way to get Russia to back off immediately. The sanctions, even if Russia backs off, they're gonna be here. They're gonna be here for years. So Russia will feel this pain three, four, five years down the line, but I agree with you. You can't just do sanctions. You need to also give Ukrainians the ability to kill as many Russians as possible, as quickly as possible in a sustainable manner. And that is what the West and the US needs to do. If they don't do that, then they're failing Ukraine. Well, Justin Higgins is a former US policy advisor. Thank you so much. Always a pleasure to have you. Thank you, Marianne. All right. Well, thank you all for staying with us on the show as we round off the show tonight. Here are the highlights of the week on Plus Politics. We will return next week, Monday, as we talk for development. I am Marianne Akon. Have a good evening. We did not publish the third largest ethnic group in the country, which are the egos. I think for equity, fairness, and justice, regardless of where I'm from, I would like to see a South Eastern president march. I believe it's going to create a lot of calm. It's going to give a lot of people the belief that we are running an entity called Nigeria that every single block matters. And the affairs and the concerns of every single block matters. The agitations that we see across the country, especially in the Southwest, is nothing but the fact that they feel like they're not part of Nigeria. And that is why every single day, people talk about leaving this country or trying to succeed from this country, even though there's no clear plan on how they're going to do it. In my opinion, one of the best ways that we can resolve these kinds of agitations is to allow everybody have a essay on the table. The party is the United because of the attitude and the motives of the United of the Unitesable Transportation. Ezeca has no problem with anybody. Nobody has anyone with him. We have this problem with the Unitesable Transportation, whose motive is very important. If he decides to correct himself and come to the negotiating table, then everything will be okay. It doesn't lie in the mouth of Ezeca So call for that. The commission, as a commission, does not have the constitutional and legal virus to postpone the 2023 election. This is because Section 132, Subsection 2 and Section 170K, Subsection 2 of the constitution have already been ruled the period within which the country must conduct the election. And going by that particular profession, the independent national electoral commission is not permitted to conduct the election earlier than 30th day of December, 2022 and not later than 29th day of April, 2023. So this particular period is immovable. This particular period is cast in stone and nobody can change it. So nobody can postpone any election in Nigeria beyond the 29th day of April. But the commission is giving the power to appoint a date for the voting of the election within this particular constitutional window. In other words, the commission can fix any election from the 30th of December up to the 29th of April, 2023. So that is our right. Under Section 132, Subsection 1 of the constitution and under Section 178, Subsection 1 of the constitution. So we cannot judge the date for the voting of the election but we cannot postpone any election. We have a body young shall grow many years in Nigeria. So these leaders today were leaders even when they were in their prime age. But even in these schools, they still want to remain leaders. So what about the children they get fast to? What about their grandchildren? What about the other young children? See young people in Nigeria who have skills, who have leadership ability, who are actually showing that leadership in this one area of their end sequence. Why don't we give them opportunity to go higher? You see, we are completely, even down within the morale of the young people making it look as if, if you're a young man, you cannot be anything, you cannot eat, you cannot go to the discussion, you cannot go to every decision making. So we are not in current defense to move on. The young people need to see deliberately that government is willing to give them space, government is giving them more and more opportunities so that they will come and show what is the position in them. So I see them, many of them already. The only thing is that they've never gotten the opportunity. So they were already frustrated with the effort to do the job that they have applied in more than 30, 50 cases and there is nothing. So sometimes because of the position, you hear them saying things that if you don't understand where they are coming from, you may judge them wrongly. Some of them have actually gone to school, you know, the pressure they went through, give them money to pay school fees and after school, there is nothing to offer. So sometimes when you see them, we are asking, they are only reacting to the situation. Give them the opportunity and you will see them extra because they are really doing it in benefit.