 Welcome traders to another Tick Mill weekly market outlook for week commencing the 25th of April. Major event risk over the weekend is focused around France's general elections. Second deciding round of France's election will be held on Sunday. Projective results will be published soon after polls shut at 8pm Paris time. Unless the count is very tight then we should have a good idea of who won shortly after that point. Recall that France does not allow early voting or voting by mail and so a US style vote counting fiasco is unlikely. Macron is the favourite. He took almost 29% of the vote in the first round about two weeks ago which was almost five points above Le Pen's share. He beat Le Pen by about two to one margin in 2017. Current polls continue to give him an edge. Case where Macron is somewhat more about a case against Le Pen than the case for Macron. If Macron wins then the market reaction may be fairly muted given that what is at least partially priced given the polls. It could be a very different story if Le Pen wins at a time when Europe needs unity. Le Pen advocates insular policies such as holding a referendum on declaring French law, sacrosanct over EU laws which would essentially be like resurrecting the past desire for a Frexix. Le Pen's party is anti-immigrant at a time of major European immigrant crisis as Ukrainians flee their war-ravaged country. If she succeeds this stance could fan the new break-up premium over buns into the Monday morning markets. Risk sentiment would likely take a hit. In terms of data this week in the Eurozone, really focus is on Thursday's April economic confidence and consumer confidence. Soaring energy prices and commodity prices are a key concern for those prints and then on Friday we get April's CPI year over year. We can 2.4% energy inflation remain strong. We also get Q1 GDP for the Eurozone looking for a 0.3% print. Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to impact at least in Q1 and probably Q2. From a technical perspective the Eurodollar is heading for a test of the pivotal monthly range support 10640s whilst we are contained by offers at 10930s. From here I'll be watching for bullish momentum divergence to play for a corrective move at least back into trend line resistance coming in there now around just below 109. If we can take that out then we can think about a test up into the descending trend channel resistance and monthly projected range resistance 1175. Moving to the US now on Monday we get March Chicago Fed activity index elevated cost pressures are a concern for manufacturers. We also get April Dallas Fed index as well looking for a 3.5 versus an 8.7 print last time out. On Tuesday we get much durable goods looking for a positive 1% print there supply chain issues still likely ahead the window. We also get February FHA house prices looking for a 1.5% print strong demand with limited supply to drive house prices growth before the Fed rate hikes likely take effect. We also get April consumer confidence looking for a 108.4 versus a 107.2 last time inflation worries offsetting strength of the labor market. And we also get March new home sales looking for a positive 0.3% print there rising mortgage rates will be set to slow activity. On Wednesday we get March wholesale inventories stocks are being replenished as supplies allow. We also get March pending home sales looking for a negative 1% print there higher rates looking to cool demand. On Thursday in the US we get initial jobless claims Q1 GDP looking for a positive 1% print there Q1 hit by trade deficit and supply chain issues for inventory. And then we round out the week in the US with the Q1 employment index looking for a 1.1% print there tight labor markets to support robust wage growth. We also get March personal income looking for 0.4% purchasing power is becoming more of a concern. We get personal spending 0.6%. We also get March PCE deflator 0.9% looking for a print there. EC inflation has reached 40 year highs and price pressures will only slowly start to obey throughout the remainder of the year. And we round out the week with April Chicago PMI looking for a 61 print there supply chain issues still ongoing concern. And April University of Michigan sentiment looking for a 65.7 expectations have improved but inflation a consistent risk. So from a technical perspective the dollar index is up testing the trend channel and monthly projected arrangements 101.20s watch for supply here bearish reversal patterns to get a three-way corrective move back into the prior highs and this is internal ascending trend line support coming in. 99.40s from there I'm looking to engage on the long side ultimately looking for a test of 102.20 area. From there I will be watching for negative momentum divergence and bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side looking for a move back down into trend channel support 97.60s. In the UK in terms of data it's very light next week Thursday we get April nationwide house price index house prices sorry last time 1.1 percent there momentum should call over 2022 given rising mortgage rates in the UK and that's the only real data of notes for sterling from a technical perspective we broke through eventually taking out that 130 in a meaningful fashion now whilst we hold trend channel resistance 1.29.40s 1.29.50 look for a completion of the major equality objective versus the swing structure here and the swing high at 1.37.54 which should give us a test of 1.26.62 from there I'm watching for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side looking to play a counter trend long position certainly thinking about a retest of that 1.30 area from below. In Japan again pretty light calendar the only data of note is March industrial production on Thursday looking for a positive 0.5 percent print obviously supply chain issues ongoing and causing struggle for industrial production in Japan. From a technical perspective as we hold trend channel support coming in at 1.27 we look for an extension up through the 1.30.30 and on to monthly projected range resistance which comes in at the 1.32 level at this stage only a loss of the trend channel support on a closing basis would suggest that we are likely to move back and take another look at 1.25 from above. Rounding it all out in Australia Wednesday we get Q1 CPI looking for positive 1.7 percent print there versus 1.3 last time dwelling prices are surging as grants adding fuel to the auto sector as well and increasing rising pressures on food prices should see Q1 CPI year over year print 4.6 on Wednesday and moving to Thursday we get Q1 import and export in price indexes 7 and 11 percent respectively higher engine prices world prices and slightly lower Aussie are going to shore those prints up and sharply higher commodity prices should see a strong export price for 11 percent and round out the week with March private sector credits on Friday 0.6 percent with bus momentum in business housing potentially cresting though should see some upward pressure on input prices for the PPI print of 1.3 percent from a technical perspective the Aussie lost that trend channel support we were watching so now we look for an extension down into test the equality objective versus the swing high at 74.50s which should give us a 71.47 test from there we'll see a buyer step back in watch with bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side at least looking for move back up into test stops and offers above the 73 handle at this stage any close through the 71 handle which would likely see us retesting cycle lows back to the 69.70s and that concludes the weekly market outlook for we commencing 25th of April as always traders plan the trade trade the plan the most importantly manage your risk until next week thanks very much