 starting in a couple of minutes just got to get the stream up and good morning everybody it's 8am eastern new york time we may have some volatility in our session but first of all i am going to go through the disclaimers all book map limited materials information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations trading futures equities and digital currencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results okay just a quick reminder everybody of the the new format that we established last week they are roughly in 15 minutes but in practical terms not exactly 15 minutes and today with a major piece of economic news being released at 8 30 eastern we're going to spend more time looking at that i imagine okay um talking of which let's have a very quick look at the calendar before we before we start looking at book map so let's just get the calendar up okay at 8 30 am eastern we have um we have the core cpi so we have cpi basically um 4x factory here i've got this calendar up just for a change because they have this lovely red and yellow coloring they clearly indicated it is red and other than that on the calendar we've got the crude inventories at 10 30 which may add a bit of volatility and the budget balance at 2 pm by which time i hopefully will be fast asleep okay switching back to the markets okay um before i spend any time looking at that educational um content that i or ideas that i try and generate for every session let us just look at es in book map as we approach the cpi release which is now in 28 minutes so just a reminder one of the things that i like doing before we have a big release is looking at where the zoomed out resting liquidity which is going to move my microphone because it's a little bit too close um where the resting liquidity is just because it can easily get there um on a on a major release which doesn't go with market expectations so you can see here up at um four five two four seventy five we've got 407 contracts and below if we ignore that we ignore this band at four five oh nine um if we look below four five oh three and four five zero zero you've got some liquidity but the big fat one is up at four it was essentially four five two five so we'll note that in fact i mean um since the easiest way for me to note that for this purpose is just to um grab it and put it onto the trading view charts we'll just pop it on there come on okay so it's it's marked there so should should this chart move rapidly at eight thirty we will see it in other words it's up there okay so um so that i have time let's go into our little education ideas session by the way one other thing to note with um with book map and also trading view today i'll just mention it i always try and mention when anything is changed on the screens i'm not showing market pulse today there's been a technical glitch with the latest updates so um the book map team are working very hard to fix that and hopefully it'll be back on our screens the next time we have a webinar on friday i think this affects everybody not just me um but um yeah we cannot watch market pulse on the screen for this session okay um one other thing uh on trading view um i've cleaned this up a little bit you'll note that there's only three indicators on es or nq and i'll just expand what those are um so i've popped in in a very faint shadow form the visible volume profile this is so that um we can see on a high level basis or high level in terms of a three-minute chart being scrunched up you can see that volume profile so you can see how it relates to these supply and demand trades that we've been taking and essentially you know whether you're talking about white coffee talking about supply and demand or you're talking about volume profile essentially you're doing the same thing or to a large extent in my personal opinion you're doing the same thing so i just thought i'd put the um the volume on and as we zoom in and out that volume profile because it's a visible profile ie it covers the bars that are visible on the chart window that you can see with your eyes um that will change and it is very very faint and that is deliberately so so that it does not get him in the way of the developing value shown by the v-watt bands and again i reiterate the the v-watt bands are just for seeing the developing value in the eth session and also in the rth session um and therefore no other purpose they're not really to take trades um at um two standard deviation or one standard deviation of value you know just because for example here it turned around at the top of developing value does not mean that that is the type of trade that we take okay um let's move on right okay the idea for today the idea i thought is something that i would expand upon and i try and always when i expand upon um to be practical in my explanation discussion of the topic and when i say discussion it is a discussion so if you're on discord feel free to pop any questions or comments in the movie eth futures channel inside the bookmap discord or if you're on youtube just um just pop a question in somebody our mirror is there cool okay good um i hope your trade works out for you um i will make sure that i've got the comments visible all right okay so the the first or the only real educational topic i want to discuss today is this concept of casino thinking you've heard me mention it in quite a few of these webinars and by the way what you see on the screen is just some random numbers it's not my you know a real part of my trading plan or those numbers are not a real part of my trading plan um and um yeah i just want to talk about targets uh and how they relate directly to casino thinking and when i say casino thinking i'm talking about you operating your trading business as if you were the casino um and you were trying to get an edge over a sequence of trades that has statistical um soundness so in other words a large number of trades and not one trade so we're not talking about home run trades we're not talking about the the type of trading where people take one or two trades per week that is not something that i personally do um i it does not fit quite into my makeup and i also think that statistically it is very hard to get the number of trades um to show that you or to demonstrate to yourself that you have an edge if you only take one or two trades a week um i think i'm just repeating myself and i'm sure i've said that before okay um right so i'm talking about over a sequence of trades um how operating as a casino can give you an edge all right okay um and i'm now going to talk specifically about what you might have put into your trading plan or what you might consider putting into your trading plan both in terms of daily targets uh weekly targets monthly targets financial year targets whatever um so we're talking about um the concept of tangible targets that you are trying to achieve regardless of whether you do achieve them or not that are in your trading plan okay and and how you can achieve them and how if you do not act as a casino it may become very very hard to achieve those um with consistency and regularity you may well have a great home run today you may become boom and bust tomorrow but that is not what we want to help you with or it's not what this segment is all about okay um in terms of daily targets i may end up doing a typing here um people also people often talk about a daily target and and a risk limit so so they'll they'll talk about things like um not losing trading x trades in a row um not having a drawdown a drawdown of more than say 500 dollars in a day excuse me i'm typing those out because those are the common things that you hear about when people are are talking about trading plans in fact if you go and do google searches youtube searches whatever and you watch videos on trading plans that's what they all talk about right okay well that's one thing that they most often have in common all right what i'm talking about really for the purposes of this is something slightly longer term so i'm talking about your maybe it's your weekly target if you take lots of trades maybe it's your monthly target if you take slightly less trades um by the way uh i can i can see that the market is moving up so i can occasionally flick backwards to uh to the esr just keep that there i've got a shortcut so i can i i should be able to get backwards and forwards anyway um and i'm saying um yeah those are a great idea and it's definitely something worth considering having in your trading plan in other words i do have such a thing in my trading plan so not exactly what i just said but it's something specific to my trading statistics but um in addition to what you might be trying to achieve today or today plus tomorrow what you actually have to do in my opinion again and all of this is my opinion is you've got to have a look at a slightly longer term because no no business tends to operate on a day by day fly by night kind of basis so um the target that i've got here now just highlight it in blue there is just an imaginary target for say the rest of your quarter the rest of the year whatever it is that you think we are discussing here so you can say to yourself my financial target for the rest of this calendar year 2023 is 40 r without the drawdown of my account exceeding a peak to trough drop of 20 r and i may have to draw what the um last half of that sentence meant so bear with me while i get the impen and make a mess on the screen okay so say this is a graph of your um of your equity so as your as you win trades and your equity rises up the idea of um a a peak to trough drop is that if this is the peak because that is the top of your equity so far um that it will not drop from there down to 20 r to and we'll talk about what r is again in a second that is is the basis of the second half of that discussion if anybody's got any questions on that or i'm not making that clear um i do have a question uh lash from rakesh since the long-term high liquidity is on the top way beyond the developing value is there a possibility that the current value will be expanded upwards um like sure we never predict the future anything is possible um if you're talking about es coming into a major economic release um definitely possible and and q it's possible with or without such a release um so yes i think you've got to keep an open mind when you look at any of that liquidity before a major release and we've got 18 minutes so i'll keep going with this for a little bit longer okay so that is what a peak to trough drawdown is right what um what can you do to ensure that you don't have that you know example 20 r drawdown okay um i might just rub that last thing out there let me just rub that out okay right um i might go back to the pen as well okay right if you have designed your trading business such that every single one of your losses is one r that is in control it's quite easy to see and to forecast as you go through day by day by day when you will have that 20 r drop and um your business will effectively be quite structured if on the other hand you have not taken the time to structure your trades and your business so that um on any single trade um you do not know that you're taking one r as a loss and you've got to assume that every single individual trade sorry it's my personal um my personal opinion you have to assume from a personal opinion perspective that every single trade has a 50 50 chance of winning or losing um so you have so in my mind you have to work out whether um you know what is the loss that you will be losing should you lose um if you have not set up your business so that it is one r on every occasion and by one r i'm talking about the one r dollar value okay if you haven't structured it and i can give you hints and tips on on how to i spend a lot of time myself um programming my own tools so that um so it's all structured around equal dollar value risk um but if you don't and then you don't have to do that in an in an automated way that i've done it but if you don't have the tools set up for yourself whether they're manual or whatever approach you take then what you could result in is have one r for this trade here four r for this trade here two r for this trade here etc etc so in other words your loss becomes haphazard and i'm talking about the losses here i'm not talking about your wins i know we spend an awful lot of time in all our webinars talking about um triggers setups etc but the real basis of this game and i've said this and my colleague tom has said this it's about risk management right and so if you don't have a way in which you can monitor your risk management so that it is effectively or as close to as it can be to equal dollar value risk for each and every investment bet whatever you want to call it every trade that you take in the market then it is going to be very very hard to have a financial target like the one up above that i'll highlight again um because getting to that 20 r is effectively going to become quite random you it's not going to be 20 individual trades it could be three individual trades uh so you know so you say so you actually met that and and you had three trades that got you minus 19 r but you did actually get to your 40 r for the financial year you might think you've cracked it but what you'll find is that that is virtually unrepeatable um so what you're trying to do is to ensure that you have the same loss time and time and time again so that um you're giving yourself um you're you're giving yourself a business that if you took to an accountant or a bank um they could vet and they could see that um you know that it was structured as a business and not just a pure gamble and you can also see that it then can relate directly to your trading statistics for example if you got trading statistics on your win rate um on the likely r multiple of winners of particular setups if you have those those statistics would then likely become absolutely useless if you were losing random amounts on each and every loss that you made you know those statistics are a lot more useful or just about the only times i would call them useful is if you have um clear parameters for an equal dollar value um loss anyway i just wanted to quickly um explain what i meant because i've been talking about this casino edge for a long time and the casino really is all about this this line here it's the losses it's not about your winners right um you know we can get into um scaling out you know letting winners run on certain trades as you know we can get into that many many times over in future webinars but that is to a large extent irrelevant if um your your losses are random and i just wanted to um to to stress that again and um i thought maybe i mean this kind of statement here it hits a bell it rings a bell in my head because it makes me look forward to operating this you know this trading game as a business rather than as what is going to happen today today is can be very very short-sighted and you can just be totally and utterly focused on having a winning day rather than be focused on the risk management if you if you make your targets available to you that cover periods longer than today that gets your head into a different kind of headspace and that that brings the whole concept of risk management to the forefront so you know one of the things it hammers home or it may hammer home to you is that you do not want to damage your business in such a way today because of sloppy management of risk that mean that would mean that you cannot meet that future financial target whether it is the quarter of the month the year whatever anyway uh it was just a thought so let us get rid of that let us go back to yes um we're going to we're going to try and do some context prep very quickly for the next 10 minutes we've got about 10 11 minutes before the release um and i will just ask uh i'll just have a quick look see if there's any more questions i know i've been speaking quite quickly during that set during that little educational bit there but literally we do not have a lot of time before that economic release it comes out in 10 minutes anyway we will jump to some slides to give us some context of what is happening okay let us go back okay let's just look at the daily so despite the the down day um yesterday and you know the run down from um this little swing high at last month's close effectively that's what lmc stands for we are still in this month multi-month uptrend so that's something that is worth noting and that applies equally to es and if we move forward to nq so nq's stronger it's well above that uh that multi-month uptrend line so we're still in that longer term uptrend line okay um look right i wanted to pull up this um this is something i mentioned in friday's webinar about using the free trading view heat map just to get an idea of what happened and what may be in play by way of the key tech stocks and here we've got a few of the key tech stocks in big red numbers we've got amazon microsoft google and apple and importantly apple had its iphone press release overnight um and yet it went down so it's just interesting for the market going into a big economic release note does this portend that we could have a downtrend day i don't know but one thing that i do know from statistics that i have kept or is that there is a probability that um if we do get a trend day um it is more likely to occur when you have a major economic release before the market opens here we've got the 830 cpi 830 eastern time so we've got that factor in there and if that does take place i know we do get into a trend day it is likely that the high or low of the remainder of the session that includes the rth is made um within 15 minutes of the release being made so if the release is at 830 all we're saying is that there is a probability that say we have a downtrend day that the high for the next eight or nine hours is made within the period 830 to 845 a.m eastern so it's just that okay let us go back and have a look at context in the terms of the profiles and i'm just going to show you where we are um so we've got a large value area if i time to draw again i think so i'm not going to merge all the profiles for this purpose but i'm just saying that one thing you've got over these last few profiles is a large value area there right does that mean we're setting up for a big down move taking out potentially a little poor low there it's not easy to see it's just um it's just a technical thing in this particular seara tpo but i won't go into that does that mean we're going potentially going down yes it's a potential um but they do love to squeeze people so if it becomes too obvious that they want to go down they will squeeze all those late shorts and take them as high as possible before they ever do um go down that's just one of the one of the games that they love to play so if we look at that profile there as well i mean there is some uh tapering off a value there at four five one six so it'd be interesting to see whether we get much above that if there is a little move upwards from the economic release in seven minutes or whether we go straight down and start moving into the to the value below and if we zoom right out and look there's another big big values in there um if you really want to know about longer turn composites go and q-cell 30 stop go and look in tom's channel in the book map discord where he covers it in a lot more detail than i ever will okay and i'm just going to move that one out because i want to have that visible to me so i can help um provide some commentary during the release and we have a look at the nq one so let's just zoom in again it'll be interesting to see if we can get below this little tapering of value here which is around about the 20 daily moving average that's at 15 400 so can we break under 15 400 that may be a hundred points lower than we are now but anything is possible with these large economic releases so that's just the context we're in an uptrend but um yeah there's potential to move down and and on nq as well it's it's relatively clear that that the um the upper boundary of this liquid of this value over the last few days is around the 15 600 mark 15 610 and there's some liquidity up there as well so you know they usually play that game where you you can see some liquidity in nq both before above and below before a major release let me just get rid of that as well so that i can have it on my screen okay we have five minutes just having a quick look again at the um three minute charts so in in this context with that we've got the pink line there which is settlement both for es and nq so we're relatively unchanged for nq and we're a little bit off uh just a little bit below settlement for es we're going to stay with the um the bookmark chart right through to the release i'm going to turn on my financial juice feed i don't think it comes through my microphone just a year of a year uh increase in headline cpi to three spots six percent in line with median estimates from a low of three spot one percent i might just mute it i'm just a little concerned it will come through and it will distract people so if we um zoom back out and look where this liquidity came in though so they added 50 around about this time here which is not too long ago 10 to 8 and you've got this little iceberg a buy iceberg of 136 and they've kept it there signaling that they will transact again well signaling they may transact again should we get back down there and more interestingly coming into this news release they've removed the liquidity up at 4525 that i pointed out at the beginning of the webinar so that big big um resting liquidity that was there they've taken it all off or taken off 350 of it so they've taken off as good as all of it there is this resting liquidity up at 4545 4545 and again i'm speaking in december futures values not september we have rolled the volume shifted on monday i rolled on the monday it's interesting that that um that level there 4545 that that liquidity has basically stayed constant throughout the asian and european sessions so that is interesting that they have not taken that one off again that's 33 points above us so it's hard to imagine that you get straight there at 8 30 but it doesn't mean it won't get tagged later on during the rest of the day so just looking at what's happened here i was looking yes and thank you they both basically had a rejection of a level at 4515 so this level up here i was just looking at a much shorter time frame chart and what is on it nq by 26 iceberg 15491.75 there's just nice burglar i got there nq i'll just have a very very quick look at it to see if there's anything in nq that we can see i've found since we rolled in december to the december contract we've just got these two alga liquidity bands that are bounding each side of the market and there's not been a lot of great resting liquidity that we can use as magnets or targets um maybe that will change after this release who knows there have been some good resting levels but not as many as usual i'm just having a quick look so we had a little stop and iceberg just there and a 53 iceberg by iceberg in nq is a significant number so it's interesting that they are trying to support this level so what should you do coming into an economic release unless you've got some very very good justification because you've done some analysis or you know something in particular please keep an open mind anything can happen we tend to to lose the most money when we get a fixed mindset i.e we are convinced that it will go in this direction now or relatively now that's when we lose the most money we tend to make the most uh the most money when we are open in our thoughts and are willing to take nq cell 31 stop okay we have had a little up and then straight down so the release has happened nq cell 20 iceberg 15436.5 so the the cpi was 3.7 against a forecast of 3.6 percent so it's likely above the level so inflation is higher than anticipated nq cell 46 stop so we've got this level here at 4481 which is probably looking quite appealing now we've got a big breakdown see what kind of retracement we get we've got some trap sellers there potentially if we can just get above them just look and see we've got a contra we would have seen whether we can hold this o1 level where they've got a buyer of about 200 at the o1 level but we're below them already so i'm just thinking there may be some resistance now at around o1 and can they hold that so i'm just holding my cursor roughly where the resistance is and q by 20 for iceberg 15415.5 i would have been looking for a short just above that level that in towards the o1 just just a little squeeze would have been nice to get short but i'm not trading i just like to point out i'm not trading here we go a nice little squeeze coming up see how i take it so if they will get past this o1 level that i just pointed at maybe they will got some liquidity up at the o5 so we're into where that buyer bought at 200 previously around about there we've got this liquidity up at o5 i haven't got any retracement tools i can't tell you what a 50% retracement of this move is but i can tell you that there's a little hvn up at o625 which is about there just on top of that liquidity there so so far it was quite a clean move clean retracement back straight to this band of liquidity and we've moved straight back down again and the target would be that 4495 which has stayed very steady so the liquidity was more useful than the large buoyant trader and then again 200 is not a huge amount for es so i'm just saying that there is a little hvn up at o625 and one trade setup that we do like looking at here is the category c or the up thrust where it just takes out this little high its liquidity goes as high as it can and then falls and i've also got to bear in mind that i said keep an open mind so it is also possible that the low for the remainder of this session that and the rth session has been formed at and cued by 180 to stop so this has been quite a good squeeze so if we zoom back in and we look at how much of this delta is red at the bottom of this that's what that's why i use this to see have we got you know potential potentially quite a few late sellers is there a tapering of the volume profile what is it likely to get back back up to so the first thing we got back up to was the little hvn o625 and then we've got back to the main hvn or vpok and vwap up at o925 so we've managed to get back there seeing if we're now going to get a reaction so look what's above now we've still got a little liquidity up there so it seemed to be that we were getting a retrace towards the scene of the crime and the breakdown from the release or the release really occurring was up at the 1175 12 mark so maybe we're going to get a retrace right back to the crime and the scene of the crime is a euphemism or another way of saying the major economic release so the price was effectively around about 1175 1245 12 at the time the price was released but so far we're just going right back up to it i'm watching to see whether we can zoom in on this one whether we have just rejected vwap and we're back under yesterday's low so so far you know if you managed to get it if you managed to get a an up-thrust trade around about the o970 at vwap you would have done very very well so there's been a nice rejection of vwap straight down to the liquidity that they put in place at o350 and now they've removed that so the next question becomes are we going to get above the scene of the crime so i say it's 1175 1175 1245 1175 so far we're right back to it so it's decision point here this is like the continuation of the auction after the initial crazy reaction and q-cell 21 iceberg 15 482 so we're forming some value here if we go into the microstructure and zoom the axis out up a bit form some microstructure there we're back into this and q-cell 20 iceberg 15 479.5 we've been both sides of that structure now we're exploring higher so we're now higher than the price release of the market i'm just having a quick look at questions or comments in the chat there is nothing there there's some nice liquidity levels above but we've got to look at the microstructure to see are we forming a slightly wider range of value around about here i can draw it but essentially i'm talking about 45150 down to about 45975 it's a new little value area there you can see it over here so if i zoomed out you can see there's nice balance of the profile there and q-cell 20 iceberg 15 479.5 i don't know if you can hear those iceberg alerts every time i get them or not i don't think that goes to discord or to youtube i think it's just my microphone so we're at the top side of this little congestion area now do we have the urge to explore or auction higher so fun not but the fact that we've now had how many tags one two three yep they're breaking higher now on the third in fact you could say it's like the fourth tag they're breaking up higher and they're providing some liquidity up above there so we're auctioning towards that liquidity up at 19 now why did i get my profiles up so i put them back on my main screen so i can see where we are in relation to the value that was formed yesterday we're close to close to settlement now we're taking that settlement and es is just failed just shy of the onh the overnight high and you could also say that it has failed into this liquidity band here so i've got it today i've got it i'm showing the liquidity a little bit more more brightly than i normally do so i'll just zoom out again but you can see it there if i if i make it a bit dimmer you can and we zoom out you can see that liquidity band that's forming the initial resistance is a little bit easier to see than how i had it before when i was when i had it on very bright so we've got some liquidity here can we munch through it or will this be a good barrier rejection wall to take us back down so we're right back to the scene of the crime again 1175 and this little value here let's just zoom in again yeah this area here marks the bottom of this current value congestion zone trading range whatever you want to call it i'm just looking to see where most of the trades took place from what i can see there are a lot of trades in the last swing up in the 13 to 14 zone so really that little zone there so that for me is the little line in the sand at the moment but it would be tempting for them to come up and tag it but the first thing they're doing is tagging this little bye ice and seeing how many how many orders it wants to transact so if it's 24 only 25 so not huge no they've added another one so you can see that they've taken two bias bigs of 56 and 25 is that enough to give them enough fuel to get back up to the 4514 or not it's really just basically a lot of chop on this release coming back down to a key level being the boundary of yesterday's range yesterday's low which is right at 0 750 so are we going to stay in range or are we going to go back to exploring below yesterday's range in other words is this just a was this just a big big squeeze up to get the fuel to go back down to target that 4495 and the 4490 that is the question one thing I do like to have as you know from previous webinars using these and Q by 20 iceberg 15471 just another iceberg alerts I apologize I like using some of these resting cell icebergs as targets when I find a long position to get into again nothing works every time and here my wider approach would be to eventually get down to the 95 and the 90 so the fact that they have this as a potential target you know a lot of me would like it to get back up there so I could short back down towards there so I would be hoping that these sellers will get some more business up there but so far we are forming quite a decent number of sellers here so we're going to trap these people and then squeeze them up or we just going to form a new line in the sand here we're back under the scene of the crime again the scene of the crime was about 117512 and we got down previously almost to that 4495 thank you yeah I'm glad the alerts don't come through what I will I'm actually do the next time I do a webinar during a very volatile period where I'm going to get lots of alerts as I'll switch them off for myself so I mean it's relatively easy to do so if I go into NNQ and then I go in there and I get to the stops and icebergs on chart and I turn off these alerts so that I don't get too many of them but whilst we're here we can have a quick look at NQ you can see that I'll go bands bordering the market you can also see a tiny cell iceberg involved in pushing it down not seeing a big red tail in delta there to give us some fuel to have a nice little retracement so in other words there's nothing there yet that would necessarily want me to go along and again I'll be looking at shorts and the slightly higher time frame perspective whilst we're looking at this I can explain a little bit about how I use multiple time frames and they don't always stay the same so I look at lots and lots of different time frames I look at lots of correlations you know I'll look at the the daily the weekly the monthly etc but from a trading perspective we are now finally getting that retracement you know with this 105 200 by iceberg giving them enough fuel to push it back up a little bit but I don't know if we're going to have another retag that's 16 50 maybe we will on the RTH open but yeah but what I tend to do in terms of how I use multiple time frames for trade execution that's in execution of setups that are in my trading plan is that I'll have a slightly higher time frame and a very short time frame so you know in ETH Asia I'll have a three minute chart like this ES and NQ chart whether it's in drain view or Sierra as my basically my bias my overview of where we're trading to and from and then I will be using a shorter time frame you know if it's slow it might be the 20 30 seconds if it's faster or it's crazy like NQ it might be the 10 seconds 15 seconds but something shorter and in RTH because three minute chart I don't find that helpful because it moves so much I'll tend to use more of a one minute as my higher time frame execution chart and again be looking at the the 10 second type of time frames on on on the ES in RTH on that basis so the 10 second is more just be able to execute and the setups are really being derived off a slightly longer time frame chart so here I mean because it's been so crazily volatile since that news we would probably have gone great I'm not sure why it did that well it doesn't matter I've lost the trading view chart so I will explain why I've lost them it's it's a little bit of a pain and it's a process that I must do every week which I have not done this week if you're a trading view customer and an interactive brokers customer you get interactive brokers future symbols data free inside trading view as long as you connect your interactive brokers account every seven days or more frequently inside a trading view I obviously have not done that so I've temporarily until after this webinar lost my ability to see the three minute or what I was trying to do the one minute charts on ES and NQ doesn't matter we'll just blow this one up and I'll move this out of the way so we'll just focus on book map and book map alone for the rest of this webinar so if I was looking for something crazy and technical I'd be looking for some kind of long setup with a trail or an ultimate target up there all right because it's because it's they've made it fairly obvious so far that they want to go down but I I just have a habit of just watching them go for these squeezers first before the the nice big moves down so it just would not surprise me if they didn't just squeeze a little bit we also saw the under bicycle icebergs here and since then since we formed the low into those by icebergs they have not been able to retag it or go any lower i.e. the exploration or the auction exploration has not got lower on this little bit below 450350 and when you do see those icebergs it may be signaling to them that signaling to you that they got in to drive it somewhere so you know they got in about 300 by icebergs here and we know that they had 164 here so it may well be the same person we don't know we never know um but we do know that they are advertising a sale up at 5675 and that some of those people have averaged in their price around about the 0450 so even if they exited now and then they pushed it straight back down those people have made quite a lot of money um you've got to be aware that there are a lot of people operating on a lot of different time frames with vast variations in the depth of their pockets in other words some of the people here may have had hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars in the market for this push up towards this 0675 and you know other people have got hundred dollars or 200 dollars at risk so it's just just interesting to see and just because they flagged this sell iceberg here doesn't mean that they'll necessarily fill it what's also interesting is watching when we when or if we do get up there watching the the buyers the sellers and the delta as we approach that 0675 because they may get their fill without ever tagging it and then go straight back down and just check in to see how we're going not got a huge audience today that's no problems let's still hope we provide a bit of value yeah so yeah if we'd got along here and um okay if you were going to trade a supply and demand let's let's dissect this okay you saw the buyer I suppose you saw them take 300 here you've got this target up there this is not a trigger per se might be a trigger for you but it wasn't a trigger for me it's when we come back down and we retest this zone here that's the category a supply and demand or demand zone test that I'm looking for along here I know you've got this liquidity target there but price does not move in a straight line and they often go in the other direction first to fuel a direction you know they go up to fuel a move down so that was the logic behind me looking for along to get up towards this of 1675 and this was the this was an entry or these two little things the fact that we auctioned back down to here which is where they basically bought in and we could not break this was a signal so you could have taken it here you could have taken it here here it's really the location of that to test the demand zone and the fact that you know you've got that quite a big target so if you'd got in here which is about the 050525 you got a 10 point target got a 10 point plus target so where would you have put your stop you know the tightest possible stop would have been around about here so about two and a half points you could put it in you know maybe you'd put in a stop down there but I just I wouldn't have I wouldn't have there I'd have had a tighter stop now I should explain as well that you know in some of the tools that I have for Sierra the way I have done it so that I meet the our discussion that I was talking about in our education session I have to have drawn my stop which is a horizontal line before I get into the market or I don't get the requisite contracts that I want to take in other words punishment for myself that if I haven't clearly articulated the stop so that my system can then calculate the r-dollie value risk I won't get the requisite number of contracts I only get one contract so it's just a pure little one specky but that's the way I work it in my system so that I have equal dollar value our risk and here we are I mean if you had got in here I would have been scaling out completely or nearly all but one contract by there so within you know up to about 1650 and I'd be very very happy with that that would be a 10 point gain that's huge that's a pure supply and demand trade it's a little bit technical because I still think or and what I think is completely relevant but what I thought was that we might go a little bit lower down certainly in rth but again you must take an open mind approach whenever you take these trades so regardless of the fact that I thought the longer term directional bias was down and I had various reasons for it such as the big techs looking quite weak and maybe a retag of those multi-month daily uptrend lines it's irrelevant to you know the trade here you know this is a perfectly valid supply demand setup with a great risk to reward profile so yes you do take it you know it does not matter that they're going down you know that they may go down what matters is that you are protected and that you're not taking more than one hour's risk on that trade and that it has a potential for multiple r sometimes you may take a trade with you know which has a very high probability that we'll only just get you one hour or just above one hour but this was actually an exceptional opportunity for us but and the other thing it had going was that we we'd had 14 minutes or 15 minutes for the time that the actual setup occurred since the economic release so some of that crazy level of volatility had calmed down and the price movement was a little bit more even orderly structured whatever kind of words you want to you want to use and if we zoom out here and you know so you are biased towards the short side you know when it comes back here and it tags that resting eyes but you could say that is a supply supply zone type A or type B test setup for you and you could have a very very tight stop saying that you know if this is clearly what I'm doing I want my stop very very tight within a point but at the moment they've got a good squeeze of all these players down there and they're going to drive it or they're likely to drive it as high as they possibly can before they take their next move so at the moment we are clearly exploring higher so if you look we made the low there we couldn't re-tag it then we've been exploring higher and higher and higher so if you zoom in to the microstructure and look at each of these swing points you'll notice that we are auctioning now we are into more of a balance congestion zone being bordered by this sell iceberg and they are gathering they've got 93 at the moment so it'd be interesting to see you've also got the liquidity zone up above if I zoom out you can see it a bit better so it's really in the 20.5 to 17.5 a 3 point liquidity wall effectively so you know I don't I don't necessarily look for longer swing trades I look for shorter trades but you know you might have been looking at that wall of liquidity saying that's a good point to get in to go back down to there yeah this might be one of the things you're doing what I'm doing right now is looking at seeing whether now that we've done this this tag of this previous supply zone whether we're going to have a breakout failure and up thrust are we going to reject this or are we going to continue to explore up at the moment we have not had a rejection we have continued to explore up so we're going into that resistance liquidity band or we're getting rather rather it's not a resistance liquidity band it's a liquidity band let's be objective about any discussion commentary analysis we have on this this is just a liquidity band and the largest level is at four five twenty which is at 207 I as I said I like volume dots so I can see I can look for large trades because they can often be turning points so I'm looking to see what was this size here so it's nearly 600 and then I'm seeing because we often get this one two punch at the end where we have a move up and then we just have one last drive up I'm seeing if we can get a rejection we can go above it and then reject back below this big trade which was at four five one eight and a quarter or a half we're basically in between are we going to reject that or we're going to continue to get deep into this liquidity band and you know whenever we get a chance an opportunity we're going to have a look at the resting liquidity and see whether it's still there or whether it's now being removed and become irrelevant remember this four five four five that we said had been there for the entire Asian and European session that's still there so even though it was not something that was likely to be tagged straight away it remains on our horizon as something that we know is there and that should we have an uptrending mini session sub session whole session whatever it turns out that we're aware of it it doesn't have to form part of our setups it's just part of our overall objective analysis of using market generates information in looking at the market so we've gone up into this liquidity band and so far we've we have now rejected so we've got some trades there so if we zoom out here and we just look up again this is what we want to see in the delta the delta column you know why do we have this column here it's to see any trapped late players on an upswing it's trapped late buyers on a downswing it's trapped late sellers and you've got some there and we've rejected a little bit so you know as i said you know one of the things you'd be looking at on this one two up move is you'd be looking for a breakup and then failure and back down again so you might have taken a trade short just around about there if you had taken a short at four five one eight fifteen you'd really want to take your stop pretty about four points away you know just the other side of all this liquidity because it's it's very attractive for them but what would you have got four five one eight fifty you would have already got one r so you know whenever you get one r you've got to be happy you've always got to approach this um with a very positive happy open mindset you know one r great the market gave me that you know this is the hardest way to to earn easy money it's probably a good description of it so whenever you get that easy money and you work bloody hard to put yourself in a position to get it then just be happy so i'm just having a look as well on this one probably the first time i'm looking at the unfinished auction scenario not quite there just wondering if we had a big fat unfinished auction but no but it does look like it wants continue the exploration down anyway at this point we have reached the one hour who knows what will happen next i hope it was off