 Welcome traders to this week's live analysis session with me, Patrick Munnally. Just let me get rid of audio feeds and we shall get going. So before we jump into today's conversation, as always we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer, understanding that trading any financial instrument carries an inherent risk and we could face the possibility of losing more capital than we initially have on deposit. And secondly and most importantly that any of you expressed here today are solely mine and they're not indicative or representative of those held or retained by tick mill UK limited or tick mill Europe limited. So just before we get going here if we could just check that the audio feeds working and that you can hear me and you can see the welcome screen if you just type of why in the chat box. Good stuff. Okay. Before I jump into the charts today, just to give you a brief overview of myself where I'm coming from. My name is Patrick Munnally after I graduated from university I joined a city PLC consulting firm. After a couple of years learning the ropes left with some colleagues and went on to co-found and successfully exit a consulting startup post merger late 2004. I started to explore my passion for markets really with some capital to play with and some time on my hands I started day trading or more appropriately day gambling, the S&P 500. And after some early beginners luck I racked up some some quite solid games, however, as is often the case my beginners luck ran out, and as the market phase changed. I began to average down into positions, eventually giving back all my games and ultimately experiencing a significant six figure financial hit, which to say this was a gut wrenching and sobering experiences really an understatement. And so it was at this point, I had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. My mentor for 18 months to about two years it was a period during which I up to not just my technical game researching and developing a training strategy that specifically suited my personality extensively back and forward testing that strategy and underpinning it with a rigorous risk management approach. During this period of mentorship though I significantly developed my mental game and probably the most important shift I made was moving away from being a highly goal focused individual orientated by financial gains to becoming a purely process orientated individual. So what does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I can make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. Once you become process orientated and have a professional trading mindset, you understand the true nature of trading, which is that you're playing a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities. And by by adopting that approach to the markets, you lose where you get rid of that emotional investment that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcome of individual trades. I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even small strings of trades, my focus on the next hundred trades. So I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. The track record you can see on the screen is from 2013 when I started managing investor capital through a managed account service. I've delivered positive annual returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio. Also since 2010 I've personally mentored over 100 private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to read consistent returns from the markets. I've consulted to numerous brokers and trading education firms contributing written content webinars and live presentation content and range of topics for market analysis to trading strategy development and execution. In addition to my fund management and private mentoring. I'm also a resident market expert at Tickmail providing daily market analysis and a daily trade setup that I'm watching in the markets. You can subscribe to that through their Tickmail blog there and you can receive those updates in your inbox. My other passion project is as head of trading for a leading trading education brand FXcareerswap.com. We're offering development and funding to retail trading towns. At FXcareerswap we don't just develop retail traders marketing market and trading knowledge. We work on developing mindset or a structure program that culminates in managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. For those who are interested I'll post a link in the chat at the end if you want to take a look into what we're doing at FXcareerswap. Okay, so hopefully that gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from. So let's jump into today's content. I want to just quickly check in with our S&P seasonal patterns that we are watching. As noted in previous sessions we were looking for the S&P to top out in September and ultimately looking for some type of load we put in towards the back end of October. When we look at the charts in a minute I'll update you on where I see the S&P and the potential moves there. A couple of off the charts pieces of information I wanted to give you. One with respect to the Euro and certainly the Euro options that are currently in the market. Shared with the guys on the FXcareerswap trading floor this morning. The current option structure for the Euro. You can see that we are currently in a phase here at 1750 to around 118 that has heavy optionality. What does this mean? Well, it means that there'll be a lot of hedging taking place in the market at the moment whilst we trade between those option levels. And that has the potential to mean that it can be quite heavy going and we can be in choppy conditions through this 117-118. The options roll off tomorrow and then we could see maybe a more directional move as we head into next week. We have some big barriers up at the 120 level. We had a crack up there earlier in the month but we got rejected. But for now the focus really seems to be in terms of this 117-118 area where we've got that heavy optionality making it difficult for the markets to make too much ground above that level certainly today and tomorrow. Another interesting piece of information actually I'll come to that at the end when I cover the chart. So with that said, let's move into the charts now. First of all I want to check in and just revisit these fractal patterns that we've been tracking in terms of a potential roadmap for price action as we head into the back end of this year. You can you'll probably be aware now of the similarities that I've highlighted. This is the dollar index is the broad dollar index so the dollar index versus six other currencies. And you can see again the similarities in terms of the structure of the price movement, not necessarily the scale or matching it tick for tick but what we're looking for here with these fractal patterns is just to give us a general roadmap in terms of what we're what we can expect in terms of price action. And certainly we're tracking pretty well at the moment and we've got this pullback that we talked about last week. Let's just bring in this. We broke out here in terms of the well we put in a base last September with the, sorry September 2017 apologies. We put in a base and then we three wave higher into a corrective high, and we ultimately rolled over. We've got a similar situation I think that's developing here at the moment. We broke out through the descending trend line on the psych indicator broke out through the descending trend line the psych indicator. So what we're looking for now in terms of this dollar index is a, a C wave corrective high. And we can see that we're base, we based here around this 93 30 if we can hold this area and admitted it's been pretty heavy going this week for the dollar. If we can hold this area, then what we'll be looking for is a, it's another leg up into a corrective high C wave high. And I think that then that should set the stage for the next leg lower in terms of this dollar index and and we could be training down into certainly to the back end of this year early next year. And as we get closer to the election, I'll update you with some of the election cycle information for the dollar index which which suggests that if Biden gets in and all all the polls at this at this point. Obviously, there's a caveat to the polls, as we saw in 2016, where Hillary was was out in front and it looked like it was in the bag and obviously trying to go in. So we don't want to get overly, overly confident in terms of polling, but it is not worthy that Biden is at this point, significantly ahead from even where Hillary was at the same time in 2016. Now, the reason why reference Biden is that it's widely believed that if Biden does get in, then that should lead to some some dollar weakness so you can see here that this even this dollar pattern that we're looking at the moment if you get the pop, and we match in terms of scope and scale, elections are at the beginning of November and this would, if we see Biden get in then this would precede what we would anticipate will be a reaction lower in the dollar. So that's what I'm watching in the dollar in the euro similar story here you can see, I think we what we're looking for is a correction to complete here we've had the first leg down what we're looking for now is another ideally to retest this breakout points at this 115. And then if we can get we can get in there again into these elections and we get a Biden victory then I think we can see upside for the euro. Once we get this correction complete. So that's the euro sterling sterling is a bit more driven obviously by the Brexit noise. And I highlighted last week the potential for us to make a kind of messy bottom here in terms of, in terms of cable, similar to what we did in 2017. And we've had this initial reaction load so I'm looking for some more consolidation on if you follow my daily work what I've actually highlighted is potential for an inverse head and shoulders here. So revisit of this 12770 area before getting the next leg higher in terms of cable. And so, so we'll see how that one plays out we're going to look at the actual execution timeframes and charts in a minute but I just want to give you this overview of where I see things from a blue sky perspective so to speak. Dolly end still trapped within this descending channel. And we'll take a look at that in a minute. Ozzie interesting looking for this similar pattern that we found in the back end of 2017 at the moment we look like we're correcting up into to complete a B wave and we look for a C wave then lower in terms of the also potentially setting up a big inverse head and shoulders around the 67 level. Last but not least, S&P 500 had to have a potential rethink here in terms of the S&P whilst we hold this 3200 level, then, and there is the potential here that we complete a five way pattern into the 127 extension of the of this significant decline. And we'll take a look at the S&P a bit more detail right now. So I've marked up a bunch of charts I want to run through with you today where I see potential opportunities developing or trace that I'm in and I'll just give you the heads up on those so dollar index in the channel. This is the broad dollar index again six versus six currencies. Let's just bring in the trend line here so we can see. So that's the trend line that we traded into and held, but like I say we're holding support here and if we can hold support at this 93 level that I'm looking for a third push higher. And this is a nice technical pattern. So we have equal legs. And this gives us equal legs and then what we'll be looking for is last leg higher here from the current level, and this will take us into this prior support zone here to now act as resistance. So that's the area I'm watching if we get if we if we can maintain support here at the 93. If we don't then I think in pretty short order we'll be retesting those and potentially breaking lower. As I've mentioned to the guys in my trading team. This has been the key area key battle area or weak and it looks like at this stage we may hold it, but we'll have to see where we close things out this week. So we have a similar picture in the equal weighted dollar index. So this is the dollar on an equal weighted basis versus the euro the Aussie sterling and the yen. So what I'm looking for here now is the potential for this three pushes pattern to play out and get us back into that some that prior support to now act as resistance. So here where I see the potential for us to get that next leg lower as as I just referenced in terms of those cycle charts. One of the trades I'm at the moment is the swissie on the long side. Again, basically keying off that same pattern that I talked about we held symmetry swing support we've held the ascending trend line support. So this is back down into the 20 zone, and maybe we can turn over here potential for us to go green on the day in terms of the near term volumetric average price. And if we can do that, and we look to challenge the weekly pivot and ultimately get up into into this major ascending trend line resistance here. And it's from there that I think we could, we could certainly then think about breaking lower in terms of in terms of the swissie. So we get that third test of the descending trend line resistance. So that would be the ideal area for us to roll over and trade lower in line with that with that dollar index view. Dolly end. Continue really to trade in this in this triangle. Dolly end is very responsive to us yields. Now the 30 year us yields is an inflection point today testing major trend line resistance that could break out, and that we could see some support here for the dolly end. What we've got here is an equality objective 10695 but the second trend line 107 so I think it's going to be hard work for the dolly end. Most likely until we get a clear review on where these these us elections are going to, I'm going to shake out so we probably range trade in terms of the dolly end using 107105 as the range in terms of the dolly end into the elections. But if we do roll over from this, the apex of the triangle here, then we look for 10425 as the sport level on the downside. We talked last week about the loony potentially holding this 132 41 area as as the potential for another leg higher actually in the loony. We've actually broken the ascending trend line support so unless by a step in today, and we can we get a close back through the back through the VWAP to get this thing bullish back through 132 90. We could be retesting the 129 or 130 certainly lows, but the RSI stochastic has reset here, and there's the potential that we're going to make a higher low. And that would set up another leg of upside and again broadly in line with the idea that we see a. Another leg lower in in the euro and these effects majors and another leg higher in terms of dollar index so all eyes on if we can get a close back through 132. 132 90 would flip the chart bullish and then set up a move to test 13644 euro so the euro obviously at its resistance point here and we've seen a few rejections. So the monthly pivot comes in just be ahead of 118 and we've seen a couple of rejections there but we're holding the weekly pivot. So we're kind of trapped here. And like I said at the beginning, the the optionality in the market at the moment supports that idea that we that we're probably going to be in in a range here certainly through maybe too late tomorrow. We'll see how that shakes out but this is the for me at the moment anyway this is the control candle in play, we need to take this highs out to suggest further upside. And once we start this one any break back through Wednesday's low would be will be bearish and you can see our size to cast it at that 80 level with potentially science turnover. So I'm going to keep an eye on that. So again trading at trend line resistance and I'm looking for the potential here for us to fail and roll back through 124 and get another leg of corrected downside, potentially retesting channel support here down 121 17 similar as to cast it pretty, pretty over so pretty overboard sorry, and we're back into this potential resistance zone. And we have completed in the quality move as well, maybe see 124 95 holds the resistance currently. You're a cat, this has been tricky one I've traded this couple of times this week without very much success I might add. I was looking for the euro cat to break higher here but we've held this, this resistance area, and we're now back testing support, you can see pretty choppy price action. But we'll see what it looks like we're going to try or attempt to gain to hold this trend line support and if we can still see potential for this to the upside. So we had to take out really this 155 20 on the downside to get to get really bearish on this. So, again, tricky trading environment there in the euro cat. You're a sterling looking to try and break out here to the upside we have an equality objective versus this swing low at the 94 area into these prior cycle highs, a bullish candle here from the weekly pivot didn't get any back below the trend line resistance, but we're looking to have another crack at it today. I'd be so I'd be interested on the long side if you can get a close through this trend line resistance like I say, a nice target up here quality objective at 9445. We don't make a really this week sterling. It's just been driven by headlines are obviously source reports and comments from Barney and Frost regarding regarding the Brexit debacle. Like I said before, and we're looking at the fractal I still think we can get a test here 127 60 and maybe get an inverse 10 shoulders and take off to the upside but again it is going to be it's kind of asymmetric risk we're either going to get positive news or negative news and market is is being driven predominantly by very short term momentum algorithms, which is just feeding off these headlines and trying to keep up with them is is a very difficult task indeed. Like I say 130 is the resistance and 128 is the support at the moment sterling and similar story. What I would look for here with sterling and is if we get a close, if we take out again thinking in terms of this candle here being the supply candle, we can get a close or a breach of 180. Then I think we've got a chance to roll over here and certainly get a move down into 129 90, even the equality objective versus this swing high, which would have us back down to 128 127 90. But again, we want to see a closing breach of this, this weekly pivot. Again, we pretty tight range here and we've just been chopping inside that during the week making it making it difficult trading. The similar pattern here in the sterling CAD that slightly wider range and see these tails again just very, very difficult trading environment. We're looking a little bit clearer here in terms of the pattern and the trend line support. So again, thinking in terms of a close or a breach of this 79 179 60 could open up a retest of the lows here 174 98. But at the moment we're trading within this ascending trend line need to see that taken out to see some long liquidation in the market. The Aussie held health support here at the 70 90 level could see a pop higher now in the Aussie up into this equality move and the sending trend line resistance before the potential for another leg to the downside in the Aussie. Obviously the Aussie feeds off risk sentiment in terms of the S&P 500 and as that, take a look at those shortly but I would definitely be paying attention to any move into this 72 72 area, watching for bearish reversal patterns to do something on the on the short side there. Again, similar story here, quite clean pattern setting up into the 78.6% retracement of this leg down. Nice overlapping corrective pattern developing here and also the potential for a head and shoulders scenario to develop. So any move up into this 77 area, I will be paying attention to watching for bearish reversal patterns to look at doing something on the short side in the Aussie yen Aussie Kiwi. So the trade I put on last night shared this via the Tick Mill blog. You can see the similarities really in terms of the price structure here. We had this leg down. We had corruption, creating trend line resistance, and then we had that final leg broke the trend line consolidation took off, went up created a second point in terms of trend line to the top side. And then we repeated the pattern here on on the downside and that three wave corrected move, which, which took us down into the trend line support area consolidated now we're potentially going to break out here in terms of this Aussie Kiwi. So I've got this on long it's I've never got it risk free and let's see if we can get some momentum here, certainly look for a move up to test the projected ascending trend line resistance which now sits up towards the 111 50 handle. So let's see if we can get the follow through and take this one up into the top side of the trend channel. So Kiwi came down into. Well Kiwi is an interesting story actually because this is this is one of those scenarios where it just crucifies fundamental traders and can be frustrating for technical traders as well but overnight the Reserve Bank of New Zealand there are comments very dovish comments talking about the implementation of negative rates and overnight we saw this spite lower in the Kiwi. Again, attributed really to to algorithms just trading off those news headlines, but lo and behold the Kiwi now is is is higher on the day. And if you were trading purely off from a fundamental basis, you would think that would be negative for the Kiwi but market in one of those typical sell the rumor by the fact setups has has gooseed everyone and has reversed on the day. And if we hold this current support we get through the VWAP and we do pivot just above the 66 handle. Then I think we get we get this this move into your quality objective and sets up then an interesting scenario whereby we could have head and shoulders set up here, and we'd have some nice divergence in terms of coming up into this trend line resistance in terms of our site indicator, paying would pay a lot of attention to have price response at 67 handle, because we could see, we could see a pullback from there and maybe see a more sustained probe lower through to test the 6380 area in the Kiwi. I'm actually and I got triggered into this myself. I'm in the trades and using the other using my VWAP as a stop on this one Kiwi yen Kiwi yen has traded into this projected trend line resistance we've got that great reversal candle on Wednesday and again I had an order for this one. I haven't been triggered into it yet, but I'm going to leave the order in here and see maybe we can't, maybe we can't break higher in terms of Kiwi yen, few of the emperors look a little wobbly today. So if we can get back down through this the overnight lows here 6940 I still think we've got potential with this Kiwi yen to see the trend channel down at 68 tested before we might see some recovery so I'm watching this one still. But if we do, again, similar to the Kiwi itself, if we do hold this as the swing low, then where are we going well should be back at 7110. By that stage, I think we should be at this resistance here, and we likely see some, some pressure emerge from there, which could set up for this move back down into the base here at the 68 area. So a couple of options there Kiwi yen Kiwi Swiss I'm in this on the long side which is kind of acting as a bit of a hedge for my Kiwi dollar position at the moment. So I think as we hold this trend line support then the potential is that we certainly retest this 6114 and and potentially higher into what could be a double top here towards 63. Obviously I've got the swissie trade on as well so they're working kind of in use unison at this point. So like I say it's a it's a semi hedge to my Kiwi position. We'll have to see where we close on the day with Kiwi I mean we can't get back through the VWAP and the weekly pivot and there's still the potential here I think we roll over and certainly when we look at the S&P in a minute, you'll see that risk assets are finally poised at the Kiwi CAD holding the ascending trend line support here quite a bit of dispersion from from the VWAP and so I still think we could we could potentially take this out and trade lower but for now we're holding the support area and we'll have to see where we where we close on the day that we are trading below the 100 VWAP and well below the the five period which is which is pretty bearish to be honest with you. We've also got the psych indicator bearish negative divergence here so I mean the pressure in terms of momentum in the market is on the downside we'll have to see if we're going to hold the trend line. CAD Swiss watching this one can we get the close through the trend line looks like we might hear and if we can I think this has got scoped to the upside I posted this today as a chart of the day on the Tick Mill blog. I think we can easily see a move up to test this 71 13 but again need to see where we close and ideally we'd like to flip this monthly VWAP bullish as well. Swiss Yen this is this one I've got on the short side at the moment, a bunch of topping potentially topping tails here as we head into the 50% retracement just ahead of the top side of the channel, plenty of congestion here in terms of prior lows and opportunity for some supply which we started to see if we if we can hold this area and start to roll over then I think in terms of downsides, we'd be looking at the equality objective, but initially looking at 127 extension. If you hold the 50% that's it. Once you get through the prior lows that's a natural objective and it would take us back into these loans at 112 so sitting short the Swiss Yen at the moment. So NASDAQ is trading into his potential projected trend line resistance here so we'll see how this response today from breakout then all bets are off and I think we retest and potentially make new highs similar story in the S&P here. What we what we potentially got is during that traded right back into this resistance area here. So we'll see if we hold that zone, then, then again similar story really with the S&P I don't anticipate we retest and potentially break eyes. If we just go back to the cycle. This is the target is 3727. And if certainly if we get up there then that'll be to my mind anyway knows me territory. We'll see a decent pullback from there as we head into these, these elections so we'll see how that S&P shakes out gold. Going nowhere fast, still in this descending trend line, and I'm trapped by this, this congestion zone here, if we hold this resistance then I look for gold to test the symmetry swing and equality objective at this 1828 100 level crude oil. Looking for 42 to cap it now and then see another leg of corrected downside on crude seasonality for crude isn't great at the moment we're seeing the pop higher based on based on the move that we're seeing in risk assets at the moment but like I say, if we start to struggle in terms of these equities, and I think we see some weakness in gold. And last but not least this week, and this isn't one that I normally talk about very much, but I'm going to reference it today. Bitcoin. This is a Bitcoin volatility chart. And what's noteworthy is that every time volatility has got down to this 20 level of middle we've got to 13 in 2016, but prior occasions where we've seen this test, and six out of seven times where we've tested the 20% volatility, Bitcoin has exploded higher. There is one time obviously November a 2018, where the move was lower. This is volatility. This isn't price direction. This is a measure of the volatility in the market. But it's interesting to know we're getting pretty close to this 20. And the last chart we're going to look at this week is Bitcoin. We can see we're in this channel. And if we test the channel support here, coming into the next couple of days, and we get that volatility testing the 20% level, and we see a reversal from this trend line support. This, you know, there's a bullish set up there in Bitcoin potentially using volatility using the price action, and we could get back up and maybe retest, retest through back into the ascending trend projected trend line resistance up to maybe 13,000 there. So that's one to keep your eye on one for the weekend. Again, also, if we take out this ascending trend line, trend line support, then the next big move could actually be to the downside in Bitcoin, and certainly you'd be thinking about about a retest here of 8,450 on the downside, initially at least, but with six out of seven volatility events, suggesting higher prices balance probabilities are that we maybe test this trend line support, maybe we run through it, get all the shorts excited and then snap back and get a bullish reversal but certainly watch this area because if we hold this 10,000, 10,200, I think we can get a look at 13,000. Okay, that's, that's everything I'm watching at the moment. Are there any questions anyone want me to take a look at a chart that I didn't cover and type in the chat box or I can unmute your mic and you can speak to me live. If there aren't any questions, and then in the chat box is equally helpful so I know we're all on the same page and I can wrap this session up here. Okay, good stuff. I will close this one out. I hope it's been helpful and we'll reconvene sometime next week. Thanks very much for your time.