 What is going on, everybody? Welcome to Market Talks here on Cointelegraph. I am your host for today. My name is T.A. Tim, and this is a show that we bring you all of the best information and the latest information happening in the crypto space to help you analyze and go about what you do with it. We bring on some of the best experts and analysts we have in the field. And today I'm joined by quickly growing as one of my favorite people in the crypto space, Caleb Fransen. I also would like to think of him now as a good friend of mine. Caleb, for anyone who doesn't know, though, I want to read who he is just so you guys get to know him. He's a senior market strategist at Cubic Analytics, analyzing new data charts on the economy, the stock market, and Bitcoin to make better investment decisions. He is also a former corporate banking and portfolio analyst. And here's a clip so you can learn a little more about him. What is going on, Caleb? How are you doing today? Tim, thanks for the introduction, man. That was a really cool video. Thanks for putting that together, guys. Yeah, no, the team over at Cointelegraph, they got some great guys. Great graphic designers, great stuff. I always love getting to, when I go away from the camera, I get to watch the screen and get to watch what's happening. So if you guys ever see me looking over here, it's because I am so enthralled by the show myself as I'm putting it on that I have to watch it as well. So yeah. No, Caleb, I, again, none of that was fake. I, we say it over here all the time at the crypto jeb team. And it's kind of a running joke when Smae hears it, Caleb Fransen. Oh, Caleb Fransen, I like that guy. But no, I mean, I, you know, it's going to be a good show today. I'm super excited because we get to talk all about these CPI numbers that just came out. So I'm going to go ahead and shut up and give it over you. What are your just initial thoughts about the CPI numbers that we just saw? So thanks again. I think generally speaking, it makes perfect sense to me why financial markets are celebrating and essentially kind of pumping higher with that CPI print, particularly because we're seeing the headline CPI cool down. I think the big thing for me is that markets bottom on less, worse news, not necessarily good news. So in a vacuum, there's not really much to celebrate about inflation at 8.5% on a year over year basis. But the fact that we're coming down from 9.1% on a headline is an encouraging step and essentially confirm some of the signals that the bond market has been giving us for the last six to eight weeks. But with that being said, right? Again, it's justified why financial markets are celebrating that print. But as I kind of dive a little bit deeper into the CPI data that we got for July, I think there's a little bit less reason to celebrate unfortunately. So when we look at something like Core, which basically was flat on a year over year basis at 5.9%, it was the same as it was in June, that's not necessarily an encouraging sign that the Federal Reserve is gonna be looking at, right? If we look at food inflation going up from 10.4% in June to 10.9% in July, that's also not a good sign. And when we, again, as I'm saying, as we dive a little bit deeper, if we look at median CPI, if we look at trimmed mean CPI, if we look at sticky price inflation, all of those metrics increased from June to July on a year over year basis. So in my opinion, it's almost unequivocal that the disinflationary dynamics that we saw from June to July were entirely caused by falling commodity and particularly energy prices. Yeah, that makes a whole lot of sense. But that was interesting because again, I've heard a lot of people's takes on it at this point, even though we're only a little over 24 hours after those numbers came out. But that's really interesting. I love that you went there because a lot of people are just rushing to celebrate. Oh, the number came down. And even, even when you talk about the Core CPI, it moves sideways, but a lot of people see that as a good news because I think the expectation was 6.1. It came out at 5.9. But I love that that you're like, hey, let's pump the brakes here for a second. This doesn't necessarily mean it's bullish. And I know there's other people talking about potentially, if you were to look at charts of the last time we've seen major increases to inflation, it's not necessarily the straight line. Sometimes there is a little bit of a dip and then it goes back up just like charts. You watch charts go up and down. So my next question for you and jumping right into the nuts and crannies of this whole situation, do you think this is just a temporary dip before we see numbers for August come out actually higher than 9.1 and begin our send again? Or do you believe potentially we still are capable of hitting the peak already and we're heading back down? So I've been thinking about this a lot. As you said, you know, the July CPI report just over 24 hours ago, it came out, right? So we're still kind of digesting this and thinking about some of the broader market implications. But I think I wouldn't be, let me say it this way, I wouldn't be surprised to see if we've seen peak headline CPI inflation, but I do believe that some of those other metrics, like I mentioned, median CPI, core CPI, if we look at food inflation, if we look at shelter components, I don't think we've seen a peak in those areas quite just yet. So a lot of this, depending on whether or not we've peaked, I believe is going to depend a lot on what happens with energy and commodity prices going forward. Because in my opinion, that really kind of poses the biggest threat to the Federal Reserve accomplishing their goal to bring inflation towards their 2% target. Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve has no impact on the supply of commodities in the market. And so that's going to depend on so many different variables that are totally out of their control. And so if we see, I mean, we're seeing a pretty solid rally in crude oil today. I think we're back around like $95, $94 a barrel or around there, I might be mistaken a little bit, but that's a substantial little increase here. And so that market in particularly energy, that's going to really be the catalyst for peak inflation or another rise in inflation. You know, we were looking at this morning actually on our morning show about the US oil. And yeah, it is definitely on the rise. You know, my question, I'm going to kind of ask you to get, because you gave a lot about your opinions, but I want you to kind of maybe take a step back and think, let's pretend we can get in the mind of Jerome Powell and the Fed. So what we just saw here in the last week, we saw the unemployment numbers come in lower than what we thought. So that right there should be the added pressure or the added benefit to keep interest rates high without worrying about hurting the recession too much because they define the recession now is when unemployment is kind of unbalanced and when people are using the credit card one still baffles me, I don't fully understand that one. But let's, you know, going back. So we saw that come out. So that's bearish, should be bearish. But then we saw these inflation numbers go down and there's some people believing that maybe Jerome Powell will kind of let the economy breathe for a second, go back down to 50 basis points. I think that's what CME futures is predicting right now. But if you were in Jerome Powell's head, what do you think is going on and what do you think he's going to do at least at this point? Let's pretend we don't see a back to an increase in inflation in here when we get results in the beginning of September. Let's pretend it stays either the same or maybe even dips a little bit more. Do you think we'll see 50 basis points? Do you think he'll stay aggressive with 75? What are your thoughts? So when I look at this CPI report, like I said, I think financial markets are celebrating, but from an economic perspective, which is what the Federal Reserve is going to be primarily focused on, I don't see much of a reason to celebrate. Again, 8.5% inflation is so far above what their long-term target for inflation is. And so I think what we're seeing right now, because you mentioned a great point about the resilience that we're seeing in the labor market. And even today, the Atlanta Fed updated their wage growth tracker, and it just showed like amazing, amazing kind of data. So I have them listed here. The median wage growth was 6.7% year over year in July. Job switchers had nominal median wage growth of 8.5%. And prime age workers, I think that's people aged 24 through 55 around there, up 6.9% year over year. So we're seeing wages grow very strongly and continue to accelerate to the upside, even though the Federal Reserve is doing these rate hikes. And so while we've seen these two negative quarters of real GDP growth, I think the Fed is likely looking at the resilience that we're seeing in the labor market, which is a lagging indicator. But I think they're probably looking at that and saying, okay, the economy seems resilient enough, right? Q2 GDP was less negative than it was in Q1 despite the rate hikes that they did in Q2. And so what we're seeing now is the Fed might be a little bit invigorated or emboldened by some of the data that we've seen to continue to stay the course that they're going on with. So, I mean, yeah, I wouldn't be surprised. My expectation is to see 75 basis points in September, but there's a lot of time and a lot of data that's gonna come out between now and then. So we'll just, we'll see. Yeah, I do think it's interesting, because I'm definitely on the side of like, why are we changing definitions of recession? That's the whole thing depending on where people stand with that one. What I will give everyone who says, hey, we're not in recession yet, what I'll give them credit for is, I don't know if you guys have looked at the charts when you're comparing the GDP. And every other time that we've talked about recessions, there's some pretty massive bars with heavy percents of dip to GDP. I will give, I'll give our economy some credit. Even though we've been negative for the last two quarters, it's not like it was ridiculously negative. Like negative 0.9%, which is the one we just saw. We've seen it before like negative like 6%. We've seen it way heavier than negative 0.9. So I will say there's potentially an argument to be made that maybe it's not as bad as people thought it was and the way we talk about it. However, just the sense that it was still negative two in a row and that we're changing definitions is a little fishy. But let's, you know, let's keep moving on. What do you think, cause this is my curiosity cause I think I could agree with you completely about even though the number came down with that 8.5, that's still a really high number. In your opinion, what do you think that number needs to be for, let's just talk about next month. Let's say next month in September, we're getting the August numbers. What number are you looking for to potentially give Jerome Powell and the Fed ease of mind to say, hey, we're doing a good job. We can go ahead and back off and go 50 basis points and not stay aggressive. So that's a really good question. And I think it's kind of, it should be top of mind for people, right? Like what are kind of like the quantitative aspects where we would be comfortable to actually say we've seen a peak in inflation, right? We've just had one month right now. So it's hard to say just based off of a, just a nominal decline. Is this the peak or is it not? And so I think it was like a month and a half ago, I did a note out to investors on my sub-stack and I talked about the actual declines that I would be looking for in order to feel confident that inflation is peaked. So I have those listed right over here. And so one of them is to see that the year over year inflation rate decreases by negative 0.9%. So for example, the latest month we got 8.5%. Next month for the month of August, if we see 7.6% down from that 8.5, that might, that's a considerable magnitude of a decline. It's not just a decline, it's a considerable magnitude. So that's something that I'd be looking for. Another confirmation would be two consecutive months where we're seeing the month over month inflation rate decline by at least 0.2 or 0.3%. And so that's for either the CPI or the PCE, the Fed looks at all these different variations of inflation. And so for me, I'm really keen, this is a big first step, right? But in terms of the magnitude of the decline going from 9.1 to 8.5 isn't substantial enough for me to have confidence to say that it's peaked. That makes a lot of sense. And that's a pretty significant dip that you're asking for there to get some bullish narrative back. So my last question I wanna ask you from the macro perspective, and then we'll kind of zoom in a little bit, is what is your, let's kind of play this out down the road. What do you think the next couple of announcements from the Fed will be for interest rate hikes? And what do you think about the potential future price of Bitcoin is gonna be? Do you think that we've set the bottom, we'll move up? Do you think we have another bottom to set? Do you think we'll only drop back down to 20,000 or so? What are your thoughts about the macro outlook of crypto and these rate hikes? So I think even a month ago, it was generally market consensus that the Fed was going to do 75 basis points in the July meeting. We had basically a two month window of no Federal Reserve meetings. And then in September, they were gonna move forward with 50 basis points. What we've started to see, and you mentioned this earlier, is that the CME futures market is starting to price in a much higher chance of a 75 basis point rate hike in September. So with markets being a forward looking pricing mechanism, it's actually been very interesting to see such resilience across risk assets, not only in stocks and crypto, but even looking at something like the bond market, it's been very resilient to this kind of repricing and readjustment towards a 75 basis point rate hike in the month of September. So with that being said, if we end up seeing 50 basis points in September, that would be a big reason for markets to celebrate. If for some reason, right? Like let's say the August CPI data comes in at 9% and the Federal Reserve decides to move forward with a 100 basis point rate hike, that would be probably a market sell off type of event. But as of right now, the market seems very acclimated to the idea of doing another 75 bips in September. And we've seen asset prices during that repricing continue to move to the upside. So regardless of, I think the likely cases will either get 50 to 75. At this point, I don't think we'll get 100 basis points. So I think either way, the market is kind of giving us somewhat of a green light for either 50 or 75, right? And this is something that I've been talking about for the past few weeks now is I think we've actually reached peak Federal Reserve hawkishness. The market has priced in all of this aggressive rhetoric, all of the aggressive tone, the massive acceleration in rate hikes. Like we need to remember, at the beginning of the year, markets were only anticipating two to three rate hikes for the entire year. We did the equivalent of three rate hikes in one meeting back to back, right? So we've had a significant jump in market expectations for rate hikes. And so I think at this point, where we are right now, markets are acclimated to a rate hike environment, at least based on the current trajectory of where we expect monetary policy to go from here. That's a good point. And just so anyone knows, he mentioned there in the beginning, but at the moment, the tool is saying there's a 75% chance of a 50 basis point rate hike. I say that all the time, dyslexic. Only 25% for 75. There's still six weeks left though. So take that with a grain of salt. But like I said, we're gonna transition. Now that's kind of looking at things macro. Let's kind of zoom in to the next couple of weeks. And I know you have a lot of charts you're gonna show us, but what are your thoughts here about the crypto space as a whole over the next couple of weeks? So I think generally speaking, I mentioned this earlier as well, but markets bottom on less worse news. So from a qualitative standpoint, I think we've started to see that development happen across the economy, across inflation, across the labor market. And what we've started to see now is more of a quantitative aspect, which is that we're starting to see, and not that we're starting to see, but that we have seen risk assets significantly outperform less risky assets. So when we look at something like the NASDAQ 100 versus the S&P 500 or ARC divided by the NASDAQ or Bitcoin divided by Treasuries or Ethereum divided by Bitcoin, all of those relative ratios are creating higher highs and higher lows. That's very important, at least from my perspective, because it illustrates that risk appetite across the board is rising. Whether we're talking about stocks, whether we're talking about crypto, whether we're talking about bonds even, the riskier segments of each of those markets and even on a cross market basis, the riskier segments are all outperforming the less risky segments. And so right now, I think we're in this massive momentum thrust off the year to date lows, right? This has been the biggest, let's just call it a bear market rally, right? I know the NASDAQ now is officially out of bear market territory, but this has been the biggest bear market rally that we've seen since March and April of 2020. We know how that story ended, right? We just had a massive continuation move as we continue to get less worse economic data and fundamentals, right? And so it's very possible that we're in that period right now as risk assets continue to celebrate higher. So as it pertains to Bitcoin specifically, when price was at 19,000, I think I was speaking with you, Tim, and I told you I wouldn't be surprised to see price fluctuate between 18,000 and 32,000. So even though I didn't think we'd accelerate to 24,000 this quickly, I've essentially been prepared for an environment of enhanced volatility, and that's exactly what we've seen thus far. Absolutely, absolutely. I mean, and I remember that, and going back and looking at the charts after you were talking about that, I was like, oh my goodness, these levels are exactly perfect. And I think, you know, there's a lot of factors that's still gonna play into this, because as we just talked about here a little bit ago, you guys just joined us, you know, we were talking about the CPI numbers and how there's still a lot of unknowns. We got six weeks before we hear from the Fed again on whether we're gonna get the hike or not. But let's, yeah, let's jump on to some charts here, Caleb, and tell us what you're seeing and what the next little bit looks like. Yeah, let's do it. So I actually shared this on Twitter. I think it was yesterday evening, but what we're looking at here in this chart is Bitcoin with weekly candles in logarithmic scale. And in the lower bound, I've added the 78-week Williams Percent R Oscillator. And people might be kind of scratching their heads, why 78 weeks? That seems like such a random or kind of arbitrary number. The reason why I'm doing it is because it's equivalent to a year and a half of price data. And what the Williams Percent R Oscillator does is in this case, it tracks the highest price and the lowest price over the past 78 weeks, and it plots on a rolling basis where the current price is relative to those highs and lows. So this helps us to really identify what are statistically considered to be oversold or overbought levels. So the lower bound is an oversold level and the upper bound is an overbought level. And an asset that is in a macro uptrend, right, this kind of secular bull market, if you will, which is what Bitcoin has been in, it's usually a good idea for long-term investors to be buying that asset when we cross under that oversold threshold on a long-term basis. And so I've done this on a variety of different time ranges. So I've looked at the 12 month, which is one year. I've looked at the 18 month, the 24 month to really get a gauge for where we are within this kind of oversold cycle. And so what this chart shows is that every time we've crossed below that oversold threshold and we stay below there, that's been a beautiful range for long-term investors to accumulate more Bitcoin. And what happens is as we leave that oversold threshold, which I've kind of denoted by the red vertical line is once we've crossed above that range, the low for the Bitcoin bear market has already been in, right? And so what we're seeing right now is we've been in this market since early to mid-June and now we continue to remain in an oversold level. We could continue to be in here for multiple more weeks or we could break out of it in the next two to four or six weeks, right? I don't know exactly, but one thing's for certain is from a statistical perspective, we can prove that we're in a strong accumulation zone. Well, that is, and that's really interesting. By one question I would have, if actually we can go back and share that chart one more time so I can look at it and kind of roughly see the date. So I'm looking, let's go to the far left side of the screen. What are the dates of that right there? So that is January of 2012 through July of 2012. We're looking at December, 2014 through October, 2015. And then the third one is November, 2018 through May, 2019. So all of those periods. Yeah, these are all like six, I guess the middle one's a little bit longer, but six months to about, I guess that one was, is that a full, it's not quite a full year, but like 11 months, 10 months. Yeah, exactly. So again, this is using weekly candles. When I've done this on monthly candles, looking at the 18 month Williams percent R, I get, you're exactly right. We basically see that we're oversold for about five to nine months on average. And, you know, volatility is to be expected during those periods, right? We've had significant swings of 40% to the upside before actually creating the final lows of the bear market. And so when I spoke with you about a month ago and I told you, I expect to see prices fluctuate between 18 and 32,000, this analysis was a pivotal aspect which kind of led me to that kind of price fluctuation range, if you will. Yeah, I mean, I think that's really cool because here's the other thing. It's just, you know, watching the confluence of different data points, there's TA out there that is kind of pointing towards November, December, January as potentially a bottom area to begin. There's, there's on chain metrics kind of pointing to that area. There's news component area. And I'm looking at this chart and I'm like, all right. Well, okay, we started that. We crossed it in June, six months. We're looking at, you know, November. We're looking at December. You know, going out to January. That's like, wow, just one more piece of information. I'm not saying it's a nail in the coffin. I'm not saying it's over. I'm not saying bet your entire house on the bottom of this bear market being over in November, December, January. But the more and more information is coming up. Here's the other one. Isn't that, that's the timeline. We're gonna start seeing a lot of regulation clarity happening, which will bring that institutional money in. That's, that's big. I mean, that chart says a whole lot right there. Yeah. And I mean, talking about institutional money, right? Like the announcement from BlackRock earlier this morning was very, very big. They're gonna start allowing their institutional clients to have access to spot Bitcoin. And, you know, I think the coin-based announcement last week, was that with JP Morgan? I'm trying to, do you remember that one, Tim? Ooh, I don't know. I don't know. Coinbase announced some new institutional partner and it was, I think it was one of the banks or major kind of legacy financial institutions. I thought, well, last week, I think they announced with BlackRock as well. The news coming out this morning was just the next step in what that relationship's gonna look like. So now you're talking about a partner and today was, today's news was, all right, now you guys remember that, that relationship that BlackRock just formed? That's going to allow all of their customers to now have access to directly get invested into the crypto space without having to do it in the futures process. So, and here's another, I got, you got a tinfoil hat moment you got to put on. I'm gonna see what you do with this. On our show this morning we were talking about, is it, isn't this timing a little funny? Is it possible that BlackRock had its hand involved with Gary Gensler and the SEC kind of halting those other spot ETFs coming out so that they could be the first one to actually do it? That is not a fact. I wanna start off by saying that is not factual. Nobody knows if that's true or not. That is a conspiracy theory, but not all conspiracy theories are wrong. What are your thoughts about that? It's certainly possible. I'm sure BlackRock lobbies the hell out of Washington DC. So, who the hell knows at the end of the day, right? But it's, that's an interesting thing. I hadn't thought about that. So, I mean, like you said, we'll never know for certain, right? And it's fun to kind of speculate on that kind of conspiratorial side of things. But again, we'll never know with any degree of certainty. But I think regardless, I love what you said about how we could, there are a lot of these kind of confluence coming to both from a fundamental and statistical perspective that basically Q4 or early Q1 of next year could be much more of a macro bottom, right? And I think much of that is going to depend on how the macroeconomic situation does evolve. How does inflation cool down? Does it cool down? Are we gonna continue to stay above 6% for the next year, right? Like that would not be a win-win scenario by any set of the imagination. But as you pointed out with that study, that's only one study to look at. But even if I look at the 24 month instead of the year and a half, so looking at a two year data point, I'm seeing the same thing. We typically have four to six months of being oversold. And then as we cross out of that area, we've almost always had, or we have actually had the lows already put in and we continue to accelerate higher into a new macro bull market. Yeah, and now I'm reminded of what it was. It's the four year cycle. So some people wanna argue the four year cycle is dead and done. Some people think it's still in existence. The four year cycle has the bottom being in November of 2022. So that was a really significant one as well. That I'm just, as you start to put all these things together, again, I wanna remind you, this is not financial advice. This is just hopefully a helpful video to help you guys be thinking and prepare for yourself. But just all the confluence coming into that zone, that timeline, it's starting to get a little bit too good to just be a coincidence. But I wanna even transition, because I know you got a lot of charts and stuff. What are your thoughts with other altcoins? Of course, we're talking about Bitcoin and the CPI numbers, what's happening there. But it feels like right now in the news, the king of the news is this Ethereum merge and what's happening with that. Do you have any thoughts about Ethereum here over the next little bit, or maybe any other altcoins you're excited about other than just Bitcoin? So when I look, I'll just preface this by saying, I don't look to invest outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum, but I'm constantly looking at the altcoin market in order to gauge risk sentiment and risk appetite across the crypto space. So I'm not looking to invest outside of that area, but I think it's fairly unequivocal to say that the riskier pockets of crypto have significantly outperformed the less risky pockets of crypto. So in particular, the way I like to measure that, the most is just simply by looking at ETHBTC. And what we've seen is a massive acceleration and increase off those June lows, right? And so we're essentially kind of trading back within this longer term kind of pivotal structure that I've been sharing on Twitter and on Substack. But I have a really interesting chart for you, Tim, that ties into this extremely well because perhaps we could do the screen share. This is it right here. So what we're looking at in green and red candles is ETHBTC and in the teal line is total crypto market cap. And so what I noticed by overlaying these two things together is that in an ETHBTC environment where that's rising, total crypto market cap is accelerating massively to the upside. And then I was also pretty keen to point out that if we look at the peak in Q2 of 2021, the peak in November of 2021 and the lows this year, what we've seen is that those peaks and troughs have almost happened at identical periods. So if we want to see a sustained bull market for the broader crypto space, it's very likely that we're going to need to see Ethereum outperform Bitcoin over a short, medium and long term. Yeah. No, I completely agree with that. I'm sorry, I didn't mean to interrupt you earlier. What I wanted to hark on was something you said that I thought was so cool. Cause earlier in the video, those who were here in the beginning, he talked about how this is a season, he's watching to, to, to watch the risky assets are seen to be picked up more so than the non-risky ones. So that even just your way your brain worked on that was so beautiful saying, maybe I'm not investing all these altcoins, but I know that they represent a riskier asset. And in this season, people are going more towards those risky assets. I was just going to connect the dots with them and be like, that's, that's a beautiful thought you just formed right there. But I, I said the same thing here a couple of weeks ago and I, you kind of talked about right there. You know, I think you're, based off of what we talked about, you're in agreement with me. I don't know if the bull market's ready to resume just yet. I think we're going to have some volatility, go back down to potentially that 20,000, 18,000, maybe set a new bottom next little bit, but I will give this, I'll give it to people who are confused and thinking maybe the bottom is in, when the bull market does come back, I think we're going to see things like what you just showed where Ethereum is outpacing Bitcoin, Cardano's outpacing Bitcoin, these risky assets are outpacing Bitcoin. So for anyone who thinks the bottom is in, I understand why you're getting there because this is what it will look like when you're looking at those ETH over Bitcoin, Cardano over Bitcoin, other altcoins over Bitcoin charts. That is the marking of a beginning bull run. I just don't know if this is yet the time. I think there's a little more volatility to play out. I think those are all excellent points, Tim. And one thing that I would add in addition to looking at something like ETHBTC, another metric that I look at is total on trading view, they have total two, which is the total market cap excluding Bitcoin. If you denominate that in Bitcoin, that gives you a really good idea of things as well. And then if you look just kind of generally across the layer two smart contracts protocol, what you can do is you can compare Cardano to Ethereum, you can compare Polygon to Ethereum, Avalanche versus Ethereum. And again, just compare a more risky asset versus a less risky asset. Yeah, that's good. That's good. Well, let's talk about Ethereum just a second because we just looked at the Ethereum Bitcoin chart. I want to hear your thoughts about the concept that as ETH Merge, again, that's the big news right now that everyone's paying attention to it. Everyone's really excited. The ETH Merge looks like it's coming. The question is, will we see a continual price increase and start heading up towards that 2400, maybe go back to 3000, or has the price already kind of been baked in? Has all the hype kind of ran its course? And now even though we're gonna have some good news ETH 2.0, the price is gonna go ahead and stall. What are your thoughts about that? I think that, first of all, this is on a lot of people's minds right now. I think if someone is buying Ethereum today for the Merge happening next month, they're late to the trade. Whether or not we, this is a buy the rumor, sell the news type of event, they're late. Most of the alpha has already been made for that trade. And so I think just generally speaking, we've seen ETH BTC rise so considerably just because of these kind of like general risk dynamics that I'm talking about across all markets. But also because we kind of have this like micro causal factor, which is the ETH Merge is coming up. And this is really kind of ETH's Ethereum's moment to shine in terms of a feat of engineering that is you could say structurally somewhat similar to the Bitcoin halving cycle, right? Not that they're similar in terms of the monetary policy of these two networks, but simply that it's a engineering feat that's happening in that individual system. And so I think generally speaking, I believe that the ETH Merge is going to be somewhat of a buy the rumor, sell the news type of event. And if there is additional upside after the Merge is completed and hopefully successful, I think that upside would be more of a macro dynamic than it would be an ETH specific dynamic. Yeah, I'm afraid that what you're saying is absolutely right. And again, my opinion on the whole matter, I think that this pump we've had from Ethereum is mostly retail investor based. Again, there's a lot of data that goes into that. Ethereum here a month ago was one of the most held by strong hands, least held by weak hands crypto out there. Now it's the exact opposite. It's saying an all time high of wallet, active wallets, which implies that that's a lot of retail investors there. I think the next significant pump is going to come when institutions get in. Now I do, I want to hear your thought about this. I do think a coin that is going to continue its upside because it's already been in an upswing that Ethereum 2.0 is going to leak over to is Ethereum classic. And I'm not the biggest Ethereum classic fan, but I love seeing green candles on a chart. And if you're a fan of green candles on a chart, Ethereum classic is looking very attractive. Do you think that, do you think Ethereum classic is kind of getting to its peak or do you think that it has the potential to continue to go up as potentially maybe some ETH miners switch over just for a little bit of time to still make some money? What are your thoughts about that one? That's an interesting point. Full transparency, it's a little bit out of my remit. So I wouldn't be able to kind of had any, any alpha to any listeners in that space. But that's, I guess certainly up for discussion, but it's not necessarily something that I have on my radar. Again, it's not that I know a whole heck of a lot about Ethereum classic, but like I said, I am a fan of charts with green candles. And so Ethereum classic has definitely stood out over the last month or so. And again, I think there's potential there that those green candles continue, but we'll have to see all of that play out and more. You know, I got one more question for you unless the chat has some coming in. Cause I just asked them, you know, you had any questions for Caleb? So if I see any, I'll ask those as well. But I want to hear from you cause everybody has their own opinion about what is the best way to invest in the crypto space. What are, what is your belief? Are you a trader? Are you a DCA or do you like to just find good buy spots and do nothing but buy, but you're looking for the spots rather than being consistent with your timeliness of putting the market? What in your mind is the best way to be investing in crypto? Sure. And so I'll preface this by saying that I've been investing for a long time, but I'm still fairly new to the crypto space. So I only started getting involved buying Bitcoin and Ethereum in like October of 2020. So even for me, I was a little bit late to the game, right? But I think with some of the professional background that I have working in wealth management and corporate and commercial banking, I think especially when we're in this kind of bear market environment, I think, let me say it this way, especially that we're in this bear market environment, it's just, it's extremely prudent at all times to be dollar cost averaging, regardless of what we're investing in. So my perspective has pretty much been for a long time now that if you're under the age of 45, you should probably be a net buyer of assets for any given year. And so you can move kind of across the risk spectrum and become more conservative in certain environments and raise cash and others and this, that and the other. But for any given year at the end of that year, you should always be a net buyer of assets. And so it's up to each individual investor to determine which assets they wanna own for the short, medium and long run. But regardless, I'm such a big fan of just dollar cost averaging, even though it's kind of like the unsexy or boring approach to investing, but anyways, but I also look at perhaps slightly more aggressive ways of doing that, right? Because the crypto space in particular is such a pocket of innovation. And there are such extremely smart people in the computer science field and the developer space who are working on real life solutions using blockchain and crypto technology. And with that innovation kind of undercurrent, if you will, there's gonna be massive winners and also massive losers. And I don't know who those winners and losers are going to be, right? But it's not out of the realm of possibility for a lot of these crypto projects to 50X even from here or at their eventual lows, right? And so because we don't know when those lows are coming, it's not unreasonable for an investor to buy $50 worth of a cryptocurrency for the next 10 months, build out a position of roughly $500 of cost basis. And if it 50Xs, that means that that person just popped, they've increased that $500 to 25,000. And so an investor can make a bunch of different kind of bets, if you will. And I'm not encouraging people to do this necessarily, right? Like it's, they need to be very comfortable with the risks because there are significant risks. But with such significant returns, you can kind of take somewhat of a shotgun approach and just kind of pick a variety of different crypto assets, likely as a very, very, very small position of a total portfolio. And kind of see where that evolves over the next two to three years because like I said, with the crypto space having all of this undercurrent and tailwind of innovation and adoption, there's gonna be massive, massive winners in this space, but there's also going to be losers. And so, I would never pile all in into any single asset, regardless, but it's an interesting approach that I've been thinking about a lot lately, especially as we're at these very suppressed price levels. Yeah, that's good, man. Let me show up though. I'll give you one final shot. Is there anything else? I'm not seeing any questions yet. Is there anything else you wanna leave this audience with? Any final thoughts, anything you wanna wrap back up and put a really pretty bow on before we wrap today's show up? Let me go over, that's awesome, thank you, Tim. Let me, I wanna go over two charts very quickly. The first is looking at Bitcoin with weekly candles using the 200 week moving average cloud. So in blue, we're looking at the exponential moving average. In yellow, we're looking at the simple moving average. And one thing that's very interesting is that we've used this level as dynamic support, basically throughout Bitcoin's history. And for the first time ever, it's really threatening to act as resistance. So in my opinion, in order to get more signals of confirmation that we're in a bull market, I'm going to need to see the price of Bitcoin flip above both of these moving averages, not just one or the other, it has to be both. The second chart that I would like to share is an amazing correlation that I've found. And I've been trying to kind of spread as much awareness about this as possible. So I appreciate the opportunity to come on here and talk about it a little bit. But what we're looking at right here is the price of Bitcoin in weekly candles and the price of a semiconductor stock called Micron Technologies in teal. And over the long run, these two assets in logarithmic scale are almost perfectly correlated. Some of the macro tops and bottoms have a little bit of a lag, but generally speaking, the shape and structure of their price action is almost identical. And this is amazing because I think in Q1 of this year, Micron had like over $8 billion in revenue. They have a CEO, an entire marketing team, all of these engineers and developers and plants and all of this kind of stuff, they pay a dividend. I mean, this is a massive company that we're talking about. Talking about, and I haven't found any other semiconductor stock or semiconductor ETF that moves nearly in line with the price of Bitcoin as Micron does. And this is extremely important because first and foremost, it can help to show us more signs of confirmation that we're entering into a bull market if we start to see both of these assets producing higher highs and higher lows. It's also very important because it's possible that Micron can actually act as a hedge against someone's Bitcoin exposure. And so as we think about this correlation and how it can be used from a traditional market kind of hedge fund perspective, back in the 80s and the 90s and the early 2000s, all of these hedge funds were looking for correlated assets and then hedging them against each other. And so as we think about our Bitcoin exposure, it's possible that shorting Micron while being long Bitcoin is going to reduce our risk and volatility over the short, medium and potentially even over the long run. Wow, guys, that is Caleb Franzen. A brilliant, brilliant mind. If you want to follow him and hear more from him, make sure go follow him on Twitter. I believe his handle is right there underneath his name at Caleb Franzen. You can follow me as well, Tim's underscore TA. I'm looking forward to getting to spend a lot more time with Caleb over on the CryptoJeb channel. You can check us out over there, but also maybe sometime soon and getting him back here on Cointelegraph. That is all we have for you guys today. But if you are new here, make sure first smash that like button and consider subscribing to Cointelegraph for more information and more videos just like this. With that being said, though, we have, that's all we got for today's video. We'll see you though in the next one. Peace.