 And as we do each Wednesday at forty past the hour folks, let's jump over to our man Teddy Kegstad folks. You can check out Teddy's outstanding Tiger Forex report right under the newsletter tab. You'll see it there. You can subscribe for ninety seven dollars a month folks comes out every Monday updates throughout the week when warranted comes with a 30 day money back guarantee and boy there's so much going on in terms of Forex yields driving the dollar driving commodities and we got some action. Teddy Kegstad. Good morning. Good morning Tommy. Boy amazing the moves we've had since a week ago on Wednesday yields back about four percent man the whole conversation seems like it shifted a bit pretty remarkable. We talked to you last week before the Fed had even spoken when you think about how things reverberate on a weekly basis. What do you want to kick things off man quite a week since we talked to you seven days ago. Yeah well we had a nice reaction you know I think pretty much what we talked about last week we prepared ourselves quite well for that. So we wrote that kind of way pretty nice I think going into the end of the week last week. So and I like to speak that's kind of coming out it's starting to get the tone like I've been saying for over a month and a half that the media is getting way too ahead of itself as far as when a rate cut is going to come in. And also if three quarters is all they're going to cut over the course of a year or whatever it is the market's already factored in how much of that you know which we've been talking about for a long time. So this limbo period with rates I think is going to be something we have to live with for a while you know especially over the next couple of months. There's still some numbers you have to watch out when it comes to the FX markets like this week there's nothing for the dollar coming out any more really except for unemployment claims tomorrow which the way interest rates reacted on Friday that was I mean look at how they acted off the Fed and then unemployment's what really set yields off you know because they don't like this with the you know wage growth and job growth and stuff like that. So if unemployment claims come out shorter you know if they start to keep tracking in that direction like it seems like that's going to be that way I'd be careful to watch the interest rates catching a bid you know as far as in pricing going up granted we have the auctions the next couple of days you can expect some kind of goofy volatility especially in the afternoons. So I'd be careful with that you know if I was just on the bond futures and ten-year futures if you're trading those I'd be very cautious the next couple of days you know I'd probably wait it out until after Thursday's number because just you're going to probably get some erroneous spikes if anything off the auction you know I don't think you're going to get a solid trend you know because if anything what's the auction going to do do you think the auction is going to start a trend no it's not going to do that it's going to set the algos on fire it's going to be a matter of how much how much liquidity comes in how much buying really want is interest is they're going to be you know so and I wouldn't want to try and play that game right now I think that you're having you hit a nice low in the dollar a couple days ago you know we had we had downside targets for the euro US dollar and the pound and some other currencies and those hit nice areas just like the dollar index did you know as far as the upside you know so I think that we're coming off a nice correction zone and I think that over the next couple of days into next week you'll probably see dollar under pressure but I wouldn't get overzealous with anything when it comes to as far as how much the dollar is going to move I would just be right now sell rallies in the dollar right now buy buy dips and the other currencies you know I could see you know the euro US dollar and a pound dollar getting a nice little lift the end you know they had a nice outside day yesterday but all that's doing is targeting them back into the center of the range they've been in for the last month so do I see the yen US dollar yen going down yeah on an intraday basis probably into Friday but I would use cautious at caution I don't think you're gonna get a big move nice that was a nice little wrap-up and I was jumping through some of those charts as you were doing it and yeah you know pretty cool to see some of those inflection points and you've had some great calls man as things have played out and I wanted to ask you about kind of one of the points you made in terms of some of those rates of course already into the market we get the 10 year at about 4.1 today we're as low as almost 3.8 last week a little bit of a reverberation and one of the things you had kashkari out here saying today's that we might be in a period of you know higher for longer going forward to some degree and I found myself saying well if we're higher for longer and we're sitting at 4.1 right now where does that 10 end up at some degree do you have any thoughts on that or and it kind of speaks to what you're talking about but I was just wondering how you take something like that how you think about it and then you look you mentioned you know the 10 year the futures etc going out even a little bit longer than maybe a couple days where do you where do you try and think about that one as we go out maybe you know months as we do start getting some of those cuts because you make the great point men if there's only three cuts and the feds at 5.5 right now and the 10 years at 4.1 there's a lot of that already factored in and so are we going to be around 4% on the 10 yeah do you think about that well how's your brain think about that one oh absolutely absolutely and I think I heard you talking earlier and that does go in line with what I think and remember last week I was also telling you how the short turns are really driving the odd the yields right now and that's kind of where we're at the 30 year obviously holds what rates in the long term and with this where we're at we know that okay even if they were to let's say hike they're not doing more than a quarter point you know and I mean like let's say all of a sudden inflation starts to kick up and then they would be on okay we're gonna do a quarter we're gonna pause and we're gonna probably lean towards cutting again you know so we know that the hawkishness is pretty much off the table but not gone you know but also as far as dovishness how much do you get I mean three quarters of a point over a course of a year remember when they first started raising interest rates I mean they did over a point and a half and how short of a time you know let alone a half a point or a point you know so now you're looking at 12 months for three quarters of a point which the market's already factored in so I think that the short terms like the two the five and the ten are gonna still push that boundary especially the tenure like you said into that area I like that as a target range for sure but once you get to that area I'd be careful because that's when you're gonna see the swing where the the third year is gonna catch up with the short terms and start to push highs and when it starts to get stretchy and starts really spiking the short terms are not gonna spike anymore because they're done and once those start to turn because the short terms obviously drive rates in the short term long term overall you know so that for the trend first shifts with the short terms you know the only time it shifts with the long term first is when you have major monumental events you know like if all of a sudden we go to like the US troops go into war like with Taiwan I would think that the 30 years gonna catch a bid at least in the short run you know it doesn't matter what's going on in the economy you know what I mean so that would be a situation where the third year would override the short runs you know because that's just flight to quality it's just what you do is how things can happen you know but yeah I like what you're saying and I think that that's the tone people really need to keep in perspective is don't expect much out of the interest rate market it's pretty much done I mean we know that as far as rate going up that's all that's over going down there's not much to go you know so now unless we have something where let's say all of a sudden unemployment sky rocks like let's say we go all of a sudden to 6% unemployment and have a huge deflationary environment that somehow just I don't know comes out of nowhere maybe Santa Claus all of a sudden drops off all this stuff at every Walmart or something I don't know I don't know you know I don't know what concern we all know these things come out of nowhere these days for sure right but but let's say that does occur okay then you're looking at that situation where you could see a big easing bit bias but you know I like I said I can't I can't go far into fan I have to go into fantasy land to try and find those you know those opinions and objectives you know so I just don't want to throw those out there I mean anything can happen we know that you know you're more likely gonna have an elbow spike that happens because of an error in technology to get to those levels for a brief time than you are because of a trend I think you know I appreciate the take man it makes a lot of sense it does can you hang with us for the break maybe we'll talk a little bit of crude if we can to finish it up I could do I could do one last segment yes sir okay perfect we'll be right back folks we'll talk a little bit crude we'll finish up with our man Teddy keg stat we'll be right back we got markets in positive territory right near all-time highs stay tuned with us Teddy and I will be right back folks welcome back folks we get the S&Ps up by 18 points trading at 49 92 we almost made it to 5,000 we're back a bit we're talking to our man Teddy keg stat we're talking a little bit of forex and I want to get your take on crude Teddy quite the pullback of course last week to this Monday 71 dollars we have been talking about maybe the high some great action there at our conversation we're back to 73 dollars and change what do you think about that crude market you know we can definitely talk about crude especially the tiger for support readers you know we had that cell signal a couple weeks ago that you know played in to our hand into Friday's low we got the little bomb test of it on Monday we peaked a little bit lower a couple ticks and then reverse and had basically an unchanged day that was a nice little high probable catch Japanese candlestick turning point meaning that probably that swing low is pretty solid for at least a few sessions I would think I would watch out now today is critical if let's say we close where we're at right now that would give us a nice little positive bounce off of Monday's low if we reverse gears tomorrow and sell off in the crude market I would be very cautious that we could probably take out the lows from this week that means that we're gonna probably get bearish and try and get back down towards that probably 70 to 68 area now in the opposite if we hold up today like let's say we settle we're at today and then all of a sudden we catch a rally and settle definitely positive tomorrow well then we're in the heart of the range we've been in for the past couple of months it's gonna be you know a 70 you know $5 treading around there poking around 76 77 back to 75 you know you really have to take out that high from a couple weeks ago at around 79 something is around 79 78 half you know if you do that then I can see it's going up to that 81 to 84 dollar range but the oil market seemed pretty tame I mean geopolitical stuff hasn't seemed to shrink the boat too much it's helping them hold us in a range I just don't see us to have any really big bullish reason to take off right now now especially with yields if yields also keep on retracting if they keep the least side ways to lower then it's gonna be hard for crude to catch a bid too because if the dollars on the pressure and yields are under pressure cost of carry goes down for crude that helps to suppress prices you know and also demand a level changes as well so I think that we're stuck in a wide range trade I be cautious watch those levels we take out the low from Monday look out below and if we get it positive close today and especially tomorrow we could you know push a bit we got a run teddy I