 You would think that across a 12 game slay for Friday There'd be guys we could feel great about at pitcher guys who are quality arms in good spots to get some strikeouts and There's no one on this slate tonight. I feel great about there is no one. I feel really good about there's someone I feel okay about but it's just one guy 24 pitchers only one guy I feel okay about for tonight. So it's a dicey slate and That is difficult, but it does force us to dive dive a bit deeper decide Which of these non elite arms can do well given their circumstances? Which of the good pitchers in tough circumstances could succeed who can bounce back from rough starts and it's not easy It's doable for sure, but it's definitely tough We're gonna break down those pitching options for today Let you know where we're going and try to find some good stacks to get us solid point totals on Fandall as well Welcome on into the solo shop. That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire here to break down Friday's 12 game main slates with lock set for 705 p.m. Eastern for today just a couple of weather notes on this slate The first one is in Kansas City winds are out to left at 12 miles per hour for the Braves and the Royals I'd upgrade hitters there a bit. It is also decently warm there too. So upgrade hitters for the Braves and the Royals The low temperature games for tonight are all out west Those are at Oakland for the Mets and the A's in San Diego for the Padres and Brewers In Los Angeles for the Dodgers and Cubs and in Seattle for the Mariners and Rockies So downgrade batters in those four games due to lower temperatures Especially with things being about warmer out on the east coast now Not quite as warm in Boston as it has been recently And then also Toronto a bit cooler if they keep the roof open So keep that in mind But in general the colder games for tonight are the ones out west We'll dive into the pitching preview try to find some gems for tonight in just one second The first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast The solo shot is here every weekday Breaking down the mlb dfs main slate and also up over on the fendall youtube page No pga next week because it is a team play event But back with you the following week and of course usc with austin swain for big cards Find all those here on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed And if you like what you hear leave us a five star rating The nba playoffs are here and you can turn crossovers into cash with fendall Just visit fendall right now and place a five dollar bet And you'll get an instant 150 bucks in bonus bets win or lose There is no better place to bet all the playoff action than america's number one sports book Just go to fendall and sign up to get 150 dollars in bonus bets when you bet your first five dollars Fandall official sports betting partner of the nba must be 21 plus the president select states fendall is offering online sports Wadering in kansas under an agreement with kansas star casino llc Bonus issued is non-withdrawal bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook dot fendall dot com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler over the fendall dot com slash rg in massachusetts hope is here gambling helpline ma.org or call 800 327 50 50 for 24 7 support in new york 1 877 8 open wire text open y In arizona 1 800 next step protects next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in connecticut 1 888 789 7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in indiana 1 809 with it in y oming and kansas 1 805 2 247 100 Or in kansas ks gambling health dot com louisiana 1 877 770 stop in maryland md gambling health dot org and in west virginia go to 1 800 gambler dot net Pitching preview for this friday main slate drew raspison comes in with a salary of 11 to good pitcher But facing the blue jays could a could i singa is 10 800 dollars Justin seal is at 10 5 nester cortez facing the twins at 10 3 martin peris at 10 1 michael walka is at 96 We got patrick sandoval in boston at 94 hundred dollars yohan oviedo is 92 hundred dollars charlie mortin trying to bounce back is 9 000 We have louise garcia mike clevenger brady singer tyler wells tanner hauch and noah cindergaard As the other guys at 8 000 dollars or higher Now you hear those names and a lot of them are okay names, but a lot of them are in Very difficult matchups raspison against the jays steel face in the dodgers cortez against the twins pares Against the astros It's very difficult The one pitcher on tonight's like who i think is both a quality arm and in a good matchup Is codi singa and as a result singa is going to be My top pitcher of the main slate singa as a guy I was pretty psyched to watch coming into this year projection systems were high on him and they're pretty good about Uh setting expectations for guys joining the big leagues with uh major league or like top end experience elsewhere We've seen singa twice so far and he's looked really good I'm willing to use him in dfs tonight as a result of that Face in the a's that definitely plays a role 82 w rc plus against righties with a 137 iso and They don't draw walks which is pretty big for singa because that's the one area He has struggled a bit in his first two starts. He has a 13 walk rate in that time The rest of the data is very good. He has a 12.2 percent swing and strike rate Which turns into a 31 strike out rate his expected era is 3.79 So His era under two is misleading but still pretty good, especially compared to The rest of the guys on this slate now both those stars were saying go were against the marlins And they're also not in the lead offense so we don't want to upgrade him much in going to a good spot against the a's but Projections like to be coming in the numbers are good so far the matchup is good. The weather is good I will take that with so few solid options for tonight. So kudai senga is going to be my top picture for tonight at $10,800 it is kind of high higher than you like to be but still worth it for me in my eyes The second pitching slot is tough And we're not going to get anybody in as good of a matchup as sengas at least not a top end pitcher I'm going to go at least Garcia 89 so technically our value play here Though my confidence in that is if you can't tell pretty minimal Garcia is at home facing the rangers and that's not a bad matchup, especially without kori seager 91 a wrc plus against righties in the current active roster since the start of last year at 143 iso 24 strike out rate that 24 strike area for the rangers is actually the highest For an opposing matchup on the main slate. So the matchup is good I'm just worried about Garcia because he's had two difficult starts to open this year His expected era is higher than eight and the velocity on everything But his cutter is down quite a bit We didn't see it get better in his second start You will see that sometimes where guys Lower in the first start get better in the second one didn't happen with Garcia I actually liked Garcia quite a bit last year So this is concerning to see happen last year Garcia at 13 percent swinging strike rate So it's hard to know If he can get back to that if he is in that same zone He was in last year right now There's a lot of shakiness here and that's reflected in my projections I haven't projected for 5.1 strikeouts for this slate. That's okay But generally not great and it's also not tremendous for this slate either The hope though is that Garcia gets back to Some of last year's form to take advantage of a plus matchup He may not which is why I'm hedging here my voice But I think he has better upside than a lot of guys on this slate So I'm fine putting him second despite my skepticism. I think that Garcia is a worthy play For dfs for today Because Garcia's our value play 89 It gives me leeway to go with the stud here. It's hard to find one that I truly love I've given lots of consideration to gerasmussen But tough matchup with the jays on the road not the best pitch count for him either Charlie warden may get strikeouts against the royals, but struggles on the road looked pretty rough so far this year Justin steele. I like a lot. I've used in both his starts so far, but has a high salary facing the Dodgers on the road So I'm going to go next to Cortez here But even he has his drawbacks Cortez is facing the twins who are a pretty good team against lefties with a 123 wrc plus that ranks second on the main slate They have a 192 iso So that's good. And they're also in a pretty good spot for hitting which makes it tougher to get enthused about Cortez Cortez look fine to open this year. He's gone Eight or he's gone 10 and third innings with three earned runs allowed eight strikeouts of two walks So it's fine. And that's again why there's a lack of enthusiasm here and a lack of conviction in putting in third But Cortez does do things pretty well across his nine starts where he's been using fewer sliders Which is what he's done so far to open this year. He has 3.82 skill interactive. He arrayed 24 strikeout rates while letting up just a 32 hard hit rate Last night's power outburst for the twins may keep some people off of the Cortez as well I have Cortez projected for 5.5 strikeouts. Define number. It's okay uh And the 10,300 salary is a bit higher than you like, but He's just a fine number three on a muddy slate So if you feel good about someone on this slate run with them because I honestly feel like I can't feel great about anybody. I feel good about Senga, but That's really it. So if there is someone you feel is in a good position Take that intuition take that thought process and apply it because I'm not getting there with anyone personally trust your gut on this one for sure Stacking is easier. So let's talk about stacks for the main slate and it begins with a team that I don't tend to Stack in the guardians. Um, they're good offense like an actual real world offense But not a lot of power. So I think we can go at them tonight Despite the fact there's a lack of power here They're facing trevor williams who is in the rotation for the nationals to start this year Just two starts so far not the best of returns as of yet Expected the array for williams is 5.12 Letting have a lot of balls in play with a 16 strikeout rate and a 2 walk rate And 43 percent of those balls in play are fly balls Given the guardians off offense, we can say for sure They're gonna put the ball and play a ton tonight just a 16 strike area for them. So balls in play and get you upside That's a good thing. It's just a question of how much they'll do with those balls in play They have guys who are willing to run. So it's not all down to power But typically I do want power as well not just rabbits running out there So I'm high on the guardians here higher than usual at least and I do think they are a quality stack for tonight You've got the two power guys here. Jose Ramirez and josh nailer. They have legitimate power Not just power relative to their teammates. So you can use them for sure. Nailer salary is pretty low too For the rest of the guys, I need speed if I'm not going to get a lot of power I need speed Stephen quan andres Jimenez are the primary guys who will run on this offense. I'm a little sorry We'll run but Often so far for him. This year has been pretty tough. So Really don't want to go there. So for me I want to be pretty strict with my guardian stacks making sure I'm using guys with Very obvious paths to upside. So Ramirez and nailer for power for mirrors for running as well Then quan and men as as guys who will run and I want to focus on that group of four Whatever possible. So the guardians are a good stack But I want to make sure I'm focused on the guys who can make a difference in terms of their upside The second stack is It's going to be the race. I know it's been odd to watch them rattle off 13 or whatever straight it is so far and It could wind up being fluky could wind up being they just faced a lot of Lower level teams or got hot at the right time, but they keep on getting good matchups They're facing hosted barrios knights and I think that they have enough lefties on this roster to take advantage of barrios' struggles barrios Has had issues with lefties for a while now last year. He led up a 514 slugging percentage to them He led up 20 home runs across 397 batters faced Lefties slugged 474 against barrios a year before that this year looks like more of the same But it's also bled into other parts of his game because his era is 11.17 And you can't get that just by struggling against lefties He's led up a 52 hard hit rates with a 5.95 expected era And that came against the royals and the angels one of those was tough in the angels Other one is not the rays definitely on the tough side They're doing fantastic so far this year We don't want to over weigh that though because it is a small sample But if you look at them against righties since the start of last year, it's a 105 wrc plus It's not like amazing, but it is definitely good You give me a wrc plus of 105 with a good number of lefties facing a guy who struggled so far and really struggles against lefties I'm going to get there for stacking so I think the rays are a great stack for tonight. Their salaries have obviously shot way up, but I think they're worth it. So the raise to me Firmly in the stacking discussion against barrios, and I do think when we're doing this, luke reilly should be in that equation He has left early for a pinch hitter just once that's a concern for guys who platoon is the leftie comes in Is reilly stay in there Stuff like that, but it's only happened really once it was in the fifth inning So it is very tough if that happens again But outside of that one game he is finishing games 194 iso for reilly against righties so far Since the start of last year. So I think he works really well here alongside all the other lefties. So Favor the lefties for the rays. Obviously a rosa reyna runs a lot so don't need a ton of power from him, but I would prefer to land on the lefties More often than not when stacking this rays offense Now this is a 12 game slate, which means you don't need to get super weird to be weird to be different on this slate But it is a big slate I kind of want to shoot for some upside especially because I have no idea what's happening at pitchers so I want to shoot for the stars and That third stack for me that contrarian stack is going to be The baltimore royals they're facing my clevenger clevenger So far has had good results in his two stars. They have 3.48 er a One star was against houston. That's very impressive But the other was against the pirates and he let up four runs in five and one third innings there That's one point of concern struggling against pittsburgh The other concern is the underlying numbers for clevenger Even with a 3.48 er a his expected er a is 8.45 8.45 his skill interactive er a 5.43 He's not getting any widths with a 7.5 percent swinging strike rate hard hit rate 42 percent fly bar a 47 percent So clevenger is not getting widths and teams are making hard contact against him It's it hasn't lined up well to score runs against him Now clevenger is throwing harder this year than he was last year Uh, he's almost back to the dealer we had before his injuries But for whatever reason opposing batters are seeing him really well The chase rate against clevenger is by far the lowest of his career the contact rate is the highest So maybe the return to higher velocity will help And maybe those underlying numbers across two starts are a blip But the numbers that stabilize quickly say clevenger could be due for regression and I don't think the orioles would be very popular for tonight I'm going to make the leap of faith with him here. It is risky for sure given that clevenger has had good results And they're not going to be super popular for a reason, but I think the orioles are a good play So the baltimore orials to me a really fun option for daily fantasy for tonight It also helps that the orioles are a good team. They're a good offense They have a 107 wrc plus against righties 40 fly ball rate plenty of speed So our risk taking comes with upside. That's a great tradeoff in my eyes Gunnar Henderson specifically has been saddled with a bunch of lefties now gets to face a righty He still has an 11.8 percent barrel rate despite all the lefties. So he'll run I'm going to be hiding here Henderson to me a really quality option within these orioles stacks Hopefully anthony santa and dare is back in there. He was available last night So we'd love to see santa and dare back in this starting lineup as well Things to watch for this friday main slate the yankees are facing louis varlands tonight a yankee stadium Varlands not a bad picture and five starts in the majors last year 4.14 skill interactive eray But in that time, he did let up a decent amount of hard contact decent number of fly balls So the yankees not going to be low rostered like the orioles will but definitely in play for stacking for one-offs Whatever it may be the the yankees could put some in the seats for tonight The potteries are a team that could also put up some power numbers despite bad hitting weather in san diego They're facing eric lauer Whose velocity is really low to start this year that may have been why the brewers pushed everybody back a day Not sure about that but may have been a lot of fly balls for lauer a lot of hard contact the padres 114 wrc plus against lefties I think that on a lot of sites that aren't 12 games the potters would be a top three stack So definitely a viable stack along with the yankees in addition to the three we discussed earlier on Another spot to go if you want a lower roster stack, this is risky as the pirates Could go bad, but they're facing jake woodford His transition to the rotation hasn't been super smooth just yet A lot of hard contact and fly balls very few whiffs so the pirates You know, they don't have a lot of guys especially with no o'neill crews, but We can pick some one-offs here if we want. I think they do work So pirates padres yankees are the other stacks to consider The top three stacks tonight are the guardians the rays and the orioles Let's finish up here with some dinger calls for today. I mentioned that will be varland Let's up a lot of fly balls a lot of hard contact. So I feel like I got to go Aaron judge here I know I've not made him a dinger pick so far this year. So I don't think it's like too big of a a fallback option there to go with but Judge for home run so far. I think he makes the number five for tonight going up against varland For the fun one, let's go gunner Henderson. Not a huge fly ball guy So again that that could come back to bite us, but He's making hard contact right now Pretty good power numbers and the miners as well. So we'll go Aaron judge and gunner Henderson as our two home run calls for friday night That is all that we have here for today and this week here on the solo shop But we are back with you once again next week on monday Breaking down the main slate as always make sure you're subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast Wherever you get your podcast to get that as it goes live if you've got any questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your mlb dfs lineups Hey, fantastic weekends. We'll talk to you once again on monday. This has been the solo shot right here on the fan dual podcast network