 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody? Welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire comm as we are taking a look ahead at week 10 A college football breaking down the biggest games on the board this weekend and what Ed's numbers say you should be betting My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm joined here as always by Ed Fang You can find his work over at the power rank comm you can find Ed on Twitter at the power rank Ed We're talking college football today, but there's also game seven of the world series tonight. I Have been frustrated with this series because it's been going super late, and I'm old So I'm I'm excited. There's a game seven, but I can't talk about I can't do this anymore. So How are you doing? I'm doing good. It's been a busy week I'm excited. There's this game seven. I don't know if I'm gonna make it till the end aren't they starting it at 730 Eastern a little bit earlier than I'm pulling out right now the start away so like it's not like the they had like with the NBA finals those games that started like 840 or something and it was ridiculous and I'm interested to see how this goes because Max Scherzer has had like Back and neck issues in the past and my level of trust that he is like fully healthy is not That large So I want to see how he does but like from a betting perspective It kind of terrifies me because I don't have a good read on his health Yeah, well, I mean it's such a I completely agree with you and I have no idea about what his health is like I mean he was warming up last night. Yeah, so it seems like he could be good to go I think he's been a fascinating series just because the road team has won every single game And that seems like very unlikely. Yeah, and if you just look at the market odds It was about one and 94 chance that that happens But that's really not that rare because if you just flip the coin on each game to be about one and 64 chance That the road team would win every game. So Yeah, I thought that was just some stuff I did this morning, you know, my numbers like Houston about 56% to win tonight You know, it's it's it's been it's been kind of a fortunate series of my numbers They've been lower than Houston at home. Yeah, then the markets which is which has obviously been good and But I think it pretty much agrees with the markets tonight. So it's you know I think baseball any sport gets pretty exciting as I was telling my eight-year-old when it's just one game and Winner take all so it's gonna be exciting. I really want to I don't remember what year it was but the year where Madison bumgarner came out of the bullpen and Went like four or five innings on like a couple days rest I want to see Garrett Cole in Madison bumgarner mode. No nothing against Zach Ranky Zach Rank. He's he's a really he seems like a good dude Like he seems like he's very thoughtful and stuff like that like I I like him But I want to watch Garrett Cole in a short burst personally like that'd be on. Yeah. Yeah, I think I think that would be fun I remember bumgarner after that game. He was He's just like Someone was asking him are you tired? He's like, no, dude. I just won the World Series. What are you talking about? He's one of the weirder baseball player and there are a lot of weird baseball players and specifically pitchers They're very strange as like human beings, but he's up there. He once dated someone named Madison bumgarner According to I think it was Vince Scully who told that story And like you're surprised to hear that but then you know it's bad or Madison bumgarner Okay, if I were to pick one baseball player who would do that it would be Madison bumgarner So it winds up being not that surprising. So hopefully we get Garrett Cole in there tonight at some point We can get a good Garrett Cole story. Maybe he's dated someone named Garrett Cole. I don't know Maybe we'll learn this but it should be a fun to have a game seven either way Halloween tomorrow So pretty fun a couple of days here on the docket also some fun today Ed because we're gonna go through what your numbers say right now Through the first nine weeks of college football, we're gonna discuss your adjusted success rate model and what it says about a few teams Entering this weekend We're also gonna go through what your numbers say about this week's biggest games because we haven't really done a deep dive into your numbers And so we're gonna dive into that in a little bit and as a reminder We have our NFL podcast coming up on Thursday as well Halloween We're gonna talk with dr. Eric eager a pro football focus again to get his thoughts on the NFL for week number nine To get that podcast right as it is posted make sure you subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You can find that on Apple podcast spotify stitcher Google Play Store or anywhere else and while you're there Please leave a rating and review as well before we get to Ed's numbers and what they say about week 10 Though we're gonna take a look back at week number nine We had right in the crystal of number fire and bleach report on to preview week nine We're gonna go through what happened there and also a NASCAR bet that I regretted a couple of hours Later more on that in just a second Covering the past All right, let's take a look back here at week number nine at college football and see what Ryan McChrystal had he had LSU Minus ten and a half against Auburn and LSU struggled a bit here But they actually I think played better than the final score to indicate so they won by just three there So Auburn did cover also talked about Iowa State minus ten and a half against Oklahoma State But Oklahoma State won that game outright and Brock Purdy still my guy didn't have a best game Still I will not Abandoned the Brock the Brock Purdy truth or train, but he didn't have his best game there We talked about Penn State minus six and a half and the under for that game and Ryan did get both of those Penn State won by 21 under hit by a touchdown So that both of those bets did hit there and you talked about Ohio State So we should us just mention real quick on that Penn State Michigan State game a lot of rain Yeah, it certainly helped the under And then yeah, it was interesting. It was raining throughout the Midwest last Saturday it was coming down really hard and Ann Arbor during the first half of the the the Michigan Notre Dame game and you saw a lot of running I don't think that was necessarily the plan But it led up at halftime and things really opened up in that game. So yeah, but anyways Weather was certainly a factor in some of these games and it did benefit Ryan there So that certainly helped in that one you had the over on Ohio State versus Wisconsin 50 and a half and the Buckeyes Upheld their end of the bargain. They put up 38 Wisconsin did not Ohio State's hasn't allowed more than 10 points since their opening game I think it was FAU put 21 up on them So Wisconsin just couldn't get anything going, but let's talk about Ohio State's defense We're gonna talk about your adjusted success rate model your numbers in a second But what are they saying about the Ohio State defense right now after another impressive game? Yeah I mean absolutely a top-ten unit. First of all, I just got to say this is probably my worst call of the year The market moved. I don't know Maybe three or four points to the under on this one, which is a little bit embarrassing I think some of that has to do with the weather, but I think the Michigan Notre Dame total moved like two points So there's certainly some market movement against me I kind of knew the way this would go wrong is if both of the defenses played that well and and and they did at least I mean they both did in the first half right and and Ohio State Did in the second half as well. I obviously clearly haven't watched enough chase young videos This year cuz cuz he was pretty awesome So yeah, it was not my not my best day on the show We've both gotten bit by the exact same thing and back-to-back week I had the over in the Northwestern game to so or not the under in that one That didn't work out either because chase young was so good. He gave them short fields So chase young an animal and someone who is giving us some problems here but I want to talk to you about that Michigan game to because I Didn't get to watch the game. I pulled up the box score saw the final score and my face melted basically What happened there like how did how did that happen? Yeah, you know was interesting I actually just I usually review the games before I go on the radio on Thursday And I got through the first half and you know, kind of I've kind of forgot I I kind of assumed that Michigan just had to run the ball because of the rain That's actually not the case. They actually tried they came out and tried to throw it a little bit It didn't necessarily work out and then the running game just started to work there was a eight-play drive with nothing but running plays and That's just certainly something I did not expect with what we seen from Michigan's run offense Versus in order to aim defense that is is pretty good so So Michigan went out and thrashed him it was particularly the run game a pass game Definitely chipped in in the second half when the rain let up But just you know, that's the Michigan team I think everyone expected at the beginning of the season we finally saw them And I'll also say like that the defensive line is just not the same unit as it was at the beginning of the year They're they're playing strong physical something. I mean We simply did not see in the first three games of the season, right? And I think that it's encouraging to see Michigan do this and they've now had a couple of decents I would say I mean the Notre Dame one is the best all year, but they've had a couple of decent performances offensively recently Yeah, do you think that they have turned a corner or is it simply variants where they've had a couple of good games that Happen to be kind of near each other Yeah, I mean so you look at this and the first three games were just terrible kept off by the Wisconsin game. Nothing went, right? Did well against workers and the last three games have been really good. I mean, I think they played excellent against Penn State Yeah, as good as a state defense really good. Yeah, Penn State defense is really good I think I mean they played excellent minus, you know the drop balls and You know, you just can't spot a good team And I mean maybe a great team like Penn State 21 points at home and think you're gonna pull it out Which they almost did right? I mean they almost they almost tied it at the end So and I think it's one of these situations, you know you're always trying to figure out whether it's the first three games that reflects on the team or that these last couple games and Just given, you know preseason expectations. I I think it's more of the latter this is kind of how we expected them to play and You know, I mean the road gets kind of relatively easier for the next three games until they hit that Ohio State game No one's really expecting them to be they're not going to be the favorite in that game But I think the sentiment has gone from they have no chance in that game to well, right? Maybe there's a chance the other thing too is they're learning essentially a new offense and it makes sense that there would be some growing pains and transitioning to a different offense and Maybe we're seeing gains within that now. So yeah, hopefully that's what that bodes But it's it would be understood. I think that the early season struggles are understandable. I guess is what I'm saying a little bit I mean, but else use it kind of having a new offense too, right? I mean, they have they have the same OC But I mean a lot of new concepts, right that that that one of the new coaches brought in so It's kind of an excuse, but you know, that's true. I think that's a very valid point Also last week here on the show. I talked about Brad keselowski to win at Martinsville his number was seven to one and We talked about that on Wednesday Friday was practice. I didn't get to watch practice pulled up my phone looked at the five and ten lap averages He wasn't good. Now. I was like, oh, we've made a mistake. So he actually did close at close a ten to one so I lost some pretty serious closing line value there and He started off 15th kind of, you know, whatever worked his way in the top ten I was like, all right, whatever at least it's this'll look less bad. Then he got to third and He was running behind William Byron and Martin Truex, Jr. and William Byron's never won an ask our race So I was like praying that William Byron just dive bomb into the corner and wreck Truex and open up the door for keselowski He was in third didn't happen But it at least felt less embarrassing to bet a guy at seven to one to finish third Than to bet a guy who never had a chance. I don't think he ever had a chance realistically So I never felt good about this bet after we discussed it But you know, it wound up being fine I don't know if it was entirely the correct process play there because he's not the playoffs anymore He they changed his pit crew. They swapped it with his teammate Ryan Blaney He may not be getting the team's most elite equipment now that he's not in the playoffs. So It wound up being not that embarrassing, but I still don't think it was entirely the correct process play there. So, right? Practice times showed me right away that I made a mistake. I wish I could have taken it back at that time We could not but oh well, that's the weird thing about about NASCAR is that you have practice times And you can decide if you want to bet before practice or after and I think with keselowski going forward I want to wait until after practice because he doesn't tend to put up that greatest speed in general So it's a weird dynamic with NASCAR is knowing when to bet different guys Like if you ever want to bet Ryan Blaney or Kyle Larson do it before practice because they're always fast in practice Eric Jones kind of somewhere thing But keselowski might be one of the guys where if you want to bet him I'd probably hold off So that is our look back at last week We'll dive into week 10 in just one second But first if you want to get in on the action check out the Fandall Sportsbook and place your first bet today If you lose Fandall will give you a refund up to $500 in site credit visit sportsbook.fandall.com for more details terms and conditions apply Must be 21 plus and physically present in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia or Indiana gambling problem call 1-800 Gambler let's move now into week 10 of college football and break down Ed's numbers and what they say about this weekend Covering the present All right as mentioned no guest for today here uncovering the spread We're gonna dive deep on Ed's numbers because Ed we have this awesome resource here aka you and We don't always get to utilize it because it's fun to talk to other people get their perspectives in college football But I'm okay with taking a step back for today and focusing on your numbers You can find all these over at the power rank calm The adjusted success rate numbers for members over at the power rank and people who don't know What those are? What all goes into formulating those numbers? Yeah, so so Jim first I appreciate you Acknowledging my ego and let me just talk through covering the present. I always appreciate that always like to hear myself talk But yeah, let's talk about success rate So as very simplest success on a play is 50% of the necessary yards on first down 70% on second down and all the yards on third and fourth down and Bill Connelly over at ESPN has done a lot of the seminal research on that and he just found that success rate is Very predictive. So if you look at the success rate at this point in the season, it's going to predict the success rate going forward I've looked into this a little bit. I've certainly found that to be true success rate is very predictive And more so than than yards per play Yards from play tends to be a little bit more correlated to the number of points that you score But there's just happens to be a lot of randomness in that statistic And you it's pretty easy to to figure out why you know If you get a if you get a pass play that goes that gets tipped off of a defender and falls into your receiver's hands It goes for 80 yards that can have an outsize effect on your yards for play it doesn't for success rate and That's one of the reasons why it's more stable and you know teams that have a good success rate It's just it's about staying ahead of the chains, right? It's it's about not, you know, not picking up penalty and moving yourself back like staying on schedule keeping those drives going and it just turns out that that is what is Is very predictive going forward in college football the other part too I think is that anecdotally like the numbers Bearing this out is not surprising because anecdotally it makes sense that this would be the case because if you were consistently putting your team In second and ten and third and ten scenarios, right? That's not sustainable like the Eagles that you're the one the Super Bowl They had this crazy success rate on third and longs. I don't know how they did it like they did, right? And that was good for them It meant that they had some good schemes, but it's not necessarily a sustainable and that's why I focus a lot on success rates even for fantasy stuff because when You see a guy like Todd Gurley is rookie year had this awesome yards per carry number his Expected points added per carry was very good but his success rate was criminally low and Basically meant that he was feasting off of big plays and in his second year with Jeff Fisher That was Jared Goss rookie year. He regressed in a big way So I think Understanding and utilizing success rates is something that can apply just more broadly to better gaming you know decision whether fantasy or or betting and I Think that that's why I have a lot of faith in the numbers that you put out is because I know that the process behind them It's very sound. Yeah, absolutely And you certainly see like these these third down success rates in college football, too Like Cincinnati's offense not, you know an offense that really scares you by any stretch of the imagination But I think they were like 55% in converting third and long last year with a freshman quarterback, right? So you see a lot of flukey stuff like that success rate kind of You know that you clearly need some big plays to make that happen. So anyways success rate helps you look At what is really predictive and I should also mention, you know With the explosive plays there tends to be more randomness in explosive plays So this is also work that Bill Connolly has done and he looked at, you know How explosive were your successful plays and he found that that regressed the mean Early to late season very strongly, right? And so, you know, if you're a team that's feasting on big plays if you're a player like Todd girly that's feasting on big plays you tend to see regression, right and We'll talk about that throughout the show, right? So let's move into talking about them further and obviously you're adjusting for Opponent adjusting for a lot of things within the success rates. How does that factor into your model when you're trying to bet an individual game? Yeah, so so I've been working on this all season my interns been working on it and Finally that was ready this week. So Monday morning. I sat down. I was like, all right I'm putting this in my model and You have to decide well, how much are you gonna wait it, right? And the only good thing to do is to look back at the previous six weeks and see how it's done To see how it is done compared to other elements of my model such as, you know market data your supply You know, it's success rate turns out to be one of the strongest predictors I have so it has a pretty strong weight in my model now and Yeah, I mean, I think it's it's something that is going to be good for for finding value heading down in the future So when you know that it's had success in the past Does that make you more confident in your numbers when going forward knowing that that this thing has done relatively well And it's now more prominently featured within the model. Yeah, for sure I mean just looking how it's done I think gives you a sense because otherwise I have no idea what way to assign it, right? You know, one of the things I did over this past off season was to be very careful about exactly what weight I assigned to various parts of my model and you know yards to play ended up getting a smaller weight than I initially expected and Now, you know the kind of the only way to maybe properly and it's not like I have it right completely by any stretch I'll probably fiddle with it as we get more data from this season, but It deserves some pretty good weight and we'll talk about how that affects in games this week Absolutely, well diving those games in a second But I want to pick your brain a little bit more because I'm selfish and would like to learn more about this personally This is mostly for myself, but we've got some perceptions I think around each team by this point in the year because we are nine games in or ten games in for some teams and We've got perceptions around each unit in each team So when you look at your numbers, are there any specific units whether it be offensive defensive, etc? That stand out with numbers that may be surprising to me slash the public Yeah, I mean one one unit that stood out to me immediately as soon as I looked at this last week was Iowa State So this is we talked about Brock Purdy The offense has been great and the success numbers support that But the defense has looked really good by adjusted yards or play as well They've been sitting around the nine to twelve area actually right now They're 12th in terms of adjusted yards per per play. They're significantly worse at success rate So they're 48th when you look at success rate adjusted for shrink the schedule. So what does this mean? Well, probably that you know, they've been really good at Preventing big plays in the sense as much as you can in the sense that they're, you know Big plays and these explosive plays tend to be kind of random so they've either gotten lucky or they're good depending on your perspective on that and But when it comes to getting a stop in a critical situation, they're probably not the defense that their yards per play Number suggests they are and there's probably some reasons for this, you know, they have a defensive end to Kwame Bailey Who led them in tackles for loss had 14 and a half tackles for loss last year. He got hurt in September He's decided to redshirt And come back for net next season. And so when you miss one of your most explosive athletes on defense, that's certainly gonna help But you know, it there's and you know, they clearly had some issues against Oklahoma State That wasn't really a success rate thing that ended up, you know, Oklahoma State Had a bunch of big plays that really pushed up their yards per per play in that game But it's something I am looking forward, you know going forward like just how good is the Iowa State defense and can they you know, can they be good enough to To knock off in Oklahoma. Well, I think that was the surprising thing for me with that game, too was I Have this perception of Iowa State as being a really good defense and then watching that game Chuba Hubbard had like this parting of the Red Sea type moments at one point during that game Had this huge long run and I think there was like a screen to Tylen Wallace at one point that he broke off for a long touchdown and it was surprising for me to see that because I had this perception that Iowa State is really good defense and Those were big plays. They probably were surprising from a success rate perspective or from a yards per play perspective, too So when you see a split between yards per play and success rate, you're gonna skew more towards the success rate number, correct? Yeah, and and just you expect the yards per play Rank and rating to fall or I guess rise when we're looking at defense, right? So I think part of the way to look at this is if you could play a hundred games Yards per play and success rate would pretty much agree Yeah, with you know, you how how efficient you are either scoring points or preventing points from being scored Unfortunately, like we don't have that luxury in football, right? And I think what what we found and again Bill Connolly has done a lot of his work is his success rate gets the answer quicker Right and we're constantly dealing with small sample sizes I think like success rate will be less susceptible to one play obviously then Yards per play will be so I think there's a lot of value in that so Definitely excited to have these numbers on our side here So let's dive into a couple of games here for week number 10 starting off with the cocktail party I don't know if I'm so can still call it that regardless Georgia against Florida Georgia is a four and a half point favorite The total here is 48 and Georgia I like Jake from and I like that some of the talent they have on their offense, but they're they're really frustrating I kind of hate them they've been really frustrating at times this year because There's no explosion, but as we know Explosion isn't necessarily predictive of future explosion if that's we're afraid that but what do your numbers say about this Georgia team offensively? Yeah, I mean offensively first you got to remember the South Carolina game was very fluky a lot of turnovers in that game Georgia had significantly more yards than South Carolina in that game, but So I don't you know, I think offensive wise they were good in that game They weren't so much against Kentucky, but now we're talking about one game Success rate wise like they look pretty good. They're they're six on offense And you kind of have to believe in Jake from and Dondre Swift. I think one of the criticisms is that they've been a little bit conservative They've run on 57% of their plays this year But you know, I mean they've been pretty good running the ball with with Swift They're fourth in the nation that in my adjusted success rate So so there are some reasons for them to to be doing that. So Yes, I think you can have some faith in in the Georgia offense I don't I don't think like the last two weeks have been really indicative of of what that offense is Yeah, yeah, definitely we talked with Bob stole last week about the value of air yards And I think that's my biggest frustration with Georgia's they don't air it out like when they do throw like okay, so Going to the NFL. I wish they were more like Detroit We're like if you're a little bit rush heavy, you know That's okay as long as you're chucking it deep when you do throw Detroit has done that this year Minnesota You know the Vikings have done that recently Georgia doesn't really I don't know if it's Jake from not chucking it deep Or if it's like the offensive scheme and it's designed to be more dink and dunk But I wish that opened up a little bit more, but right the success rate numbers to me are not that surprising I think it makes sense that they would do well there We should expect them to great out better going forward. So what does that make you think about this line here? It's Georgia minus four and a half. Do you have a lean one way or another there? Yeah? I mean, I I was very excited about this at minus four and a half. My number said Georgia should win by almost seven points. Okay, I believe the markets have moved since then I think I think they're up at six and a half now Which suggests not any more value in this game You know, Florida has been pretty solid even behind Kyle Trask their eighth and passing success rate Which is pretty good when you have your your backup quarterback in there for for the last four games Dan Mullins done a really good job with a quarterback position You know, I mean, I think the My numbers do lean towards the over my numbers have the total at about 56 Okay, I'm I don't know if I love that and and I love it less because the market seems to be moving the other way on that Yeah, but that's certainly that that's the lean by by my numbers. The total has gone down Three and a half and the spread has moved two points. Like that's a pretty significant move against them Is it six and a half at Fandle? Yeah, six and a half right now. Yeah, I think that's fair I think that's a fair spread, but you want the over on 44 and a half. No, not really, okay Understandable, I think this will be an interesting game I think that I was down in Florida initially when Felipe Franks went down But as you said Kyle Trask has done well, so should be a fun game I want the Georgia offense to do something different But I always try not to assume coaches will change because the longer track record says coaches do not change So I'm not expecting that I'm hoping for it. Let's move here to Utah at Washington right now This number is Utah minus three and a half the total 47 and a half that has gone up a point since yesterday It was 46 and a half We've talked about Utah a couple of times on the podcast and then we did a week. I think it was week zero week one Where does their defense rank nationally for you right now because anecdotally they seem to be one of the better units in the entire nation Yeah, absolutely and the numbers definitely back that up I mean their fifth when I look at adjusted success rate it's one of these Situations where that exactly agrees with adjusted yards for play where they were also fifth and You know really this is kind of a golden opportunity for for Utah I mean they clearly look like the best team in the Pac-12 South. They lost a game to USC But But I'm you know the numbers wise they are the best team in the Pac-12 They've been pretty good on offense to Ranking 11th by adjusted success rate Which I think is a little bit more of the surprise for that team and as a team You know when I do my member rankings that give the predictions. They're they're up to 10th they're actually ahead of Oregon right now and I think for Pac-12 fans that have two teams that that could be in playoff contention has got to be pretty exciting at this point Well, especially given the way that you're started where you had you talk it off this good start but the USC game was their fourth game of the year and That can kill optimism pretty quickly But they've done what really well since and I think that you know, we talked about this Was it Edward Egress? We talked about Utah with where that USC laws was kind of like an attempt slant perception of them for a while I think we've kind of seen that they've right consistently covered since then and I think that if you want to make a statement As a team for the committee This is kind of like the last chance to do it because they have UCLA They have at Arizona and then versus Colorado. This is by the best game left in the schedule So could be one of those statement games where Utah wants to show that the strength they've got here. Yeah, it's certainly a statement game I mean, they're gonna have the Pac-12 championship if everything goes their way They're gonna have a Pac-12 championship. Yep game against probably a one-loss Oregon team That I guess would be I would be undefeated through through the Pac-12 So they'll have their chances. They'll have their chances to impress the committee And but but let's you know Let's not think that they're just gonna go up into Washington and beat Chris Peterson's program, right? You know, I have Utah as a favorite of about 3.6 points as a favorite so Which pretty much agrees with the line doesn't suggest any value on the side Jim you picked all games which But but just to go into the success rate a little bit more, you know Washington is at such a good defense in their time as as a national program top 10 type program under Chris Peterson and It looks like it's struggling a little bit this year by just his success rate they're 57th And that's something that's significantly worse than their 26 by yards per play. Yeah, that's really interesting Is any thoughts in the total here 47 and a half? Yeah, you can lean a little bit towards the over. My model says 48.8. Okay, so Edition across the board should be a fun game though. So I like watching Utah I like watching good defensive lines. So I think it should be a fun game to watch Let's move on here to a really fun game SMU against Memphis SMU undefeated but Memphis now a six-point favorite that game was four and a half total has gone up to 72 So it's gonna be a fun game to watch. We've got SMU undefeated right now at so They've looked good. Obviously. Yeah, once you adjust for their schedule. How did they grade out based on your numbers? Yeah, so last week I pulled up You know, I have computer code and scripts that that generate my predictions every week And the first thing I see on the Thursday night game is SMU by 1.4 points over Houston on the road and Quick check at the markets were at 10. They eventually got to 12 and a half. I'm like, oh, this is just such a poor way You know when a member logs into the site, that's the first thing they see is something that's off by 8 points to the market Not good It turned out to be okay You know SMU won the game. I think they won by three. It certainly wasn't a Definitive type game, you know, I think when you look at They're undefeated But when you look at SMU the reason the numbers don't like them as much is those games against Tulsa and Last week against Houston. So in both those games the opponent had more yards in both those games the opponent had a better success rate Tulsa took them all the way to overtime SMU was able to get the win and then they obviously had to squeak it out last week as well so You know, there's a couple different ways to kind of break this down, you know, like in the preseason rankings SMU was 77th When you look at just data from this year. So Looking at both my team rankings, which is margin of victory adjust of her schedule and then success rate yards per play They're 39th, okay So they are performing well, but maybe not as well as people expect given there there ain't no record So, you know, I make this game Memphis by 4.3 points, which actually suggests some value on SMU in this game Now that's up to six. Yeah, so I Kind of don't really know what to to make of the SMU team, you know it's kind of in this limbo land where they're outperforming expectations and we should probably believe that but Maybe temper it a little bit. I mean your numbers were right last week. So maybe maybe we don't need to But how much is the prior still baked into your numbers right now? Because we are deep into the year, but there's still a ton of variance in what's happened in 2019 So it makes sense to solve the prior in there. How much of a factor is that at this point in the year? Well, it's a tough thing to answer directly. So like the explicit preseason prior still in there, right? It's very small. Yeah, I also use market data to evaluate these teams And that's a very interesting combination of what we thought at the beginning of the season because I'm still Including what the market thought back then right and how things have evolved Later in the season. So It's hard to say exactly how much of the priors in there But it's certainly in there you do have to evaluate it and you know when I'm when I'm kind of looking at these games You know, I I kind of split it up into three different predictions, right? So what the preseason prior was which which like I said is a pretty small right now what we get from this season's data Which is big and then what we get from the markets, which is a pretty powerful predictor and So, you know, you can kind of make your judgment about which one applies the most And and it's just a tool that I use to help find games. Yeah So we've seen this this number move. It's Memphis minus six How far would that number need to move for you to have confidence in SMU because it could still move further Is there a spot where you think that you'd actually be willing to pull the trigger on SMU? Yeah, I mean, I'd have to go back and look at injuries, but but I think like six six and a half Like I would definitely lean towards that Just just based on what the numbers are saying, okay Any other bets to stand out to you as being advantageous on the board for week 10 a Fandle sports book Yeah, there's one I really like Jim, but I'm gonna save that for covering the future Oh good tease. Man, you can tell you do radio Ed's a pro here. I like it. We're gonna get into covering the future in just one second But anything else you want to add in about your bottle before we close up shop for this segment? Yeah, absolutely. There's one thing I wanted to say because I was you know We came into the season wondering about Oklahoma's defense. Yeah, it's just a unit that was kind of atrocious last year Came into the season and lost their best player in the secondary to start The offense has been rolling, but what exactly were we supposed to think of this this defense? Well, they're actually 18th in the nation in adjusted success rate. So I thought that was pretty high But you know that is supposed to be the number that's supposed to project better going forward They're a little bit worse by adjusted yards per play 28th, but 28th is an excellent number compared to where they were last year, right? So the numbers suggest and you know, I know they lost to Kansas State last week but the numbers suggest is this is a stronger Oklahoma team than even last year and We will see, you know, how they you know, whether they can make the plot often and what kind of competition They can give to the top teams in the country I'm guessing that okla or that that Kansas State game will probably have a stink on them for a bit because your defensive numbers are Fairly high on them. I guess like higher than we would expect especially based on the Kansas State game given that it was a high profile loss Do you think that would present a buying window for Oklahoma? Obviously depends on the number So it very much depends on the number, but is that a spot where you would be looking to potentially buy into them down the road? Buy into Oklahoma. Yeah Potentially, I mean it was a fluke game, right? Like I'm looking at it They had Oklahoma 9.4 yards per play. Yeah Kansas State at 5.8. It's kind of hard to lose a game When you're that much more efficient than your opponent, right? That that takes, you know, it doesn't happen often I should hopefully tell you but I but I but I can't but right like how often that actually happens But it's got to be pretty rare. So yeah a little fluky You know as far as the playoff picture is concerned. I don't think it really hurts them too much I mean you have zero margin for error. I guess going in the future you need to win your conference championship game It would help if you won out and you know, don't trip up against an Iowa State But But yeah, we'll see I don't know what the market is gonna say about Oklahoma But it's definitely something that I will be watching and they have a really good schedule going ahead They're gonna have chances to prove themselves So I would agree that they're not done from a playoff perspective yet And it'll be fun to see what they can do they get it's kind of like a covering the spread bowl against Iowa State I would say and then Baylor is the week after that. So that's gonna be a fun one, too That we will definitely discuss on the podcast So that'll wrap up covering the present where I take a quick second and we'll come back and take a finally get into What Ed wants for covering the future as well Covering the future All right before we dive into that number that Ed likes week number 10 Ed and I always preach searching for the best value in betting on games and look no further than the new odds Comparison our engineers have developed over at number fire calm odds fire is a premier odds comparison Experience across major bookmakers in the regulated u.s. Market compare odds quickly identify the best value and even Examine first-party fan dual data all in one place never settle always get the best odds Check out the experience for free now on number fire or at odds fire calm gambling problem call 1-800 Gambler all right Ed. I got to let you put your radio experience to good use here You teased it brilliantly. So what number do you like here for week 10 in college football? yeah, so I'm gonna stay in the big 12 and I really like Kansas State plus six and a half and the story is kind of all about success rate and How it very much favors Kansas State? So just for example, you know the 33rd and success adjusts success rate on offense Significantly better than the 77th. They are and in adjusted yards per play and it just means that you know This this team is much better at staying ahead of schedule than they are at big breaking big plays but if you're successful you'll eventually get those big plays and Expect that unit to be better and then in the same thing on defense. They're 20 second and adjusted success rate on defense much better than the 72nd that they rank in adjusted yards per play so Kansas State is one of those teams that gets a significant bump, you know in my system when when when I add in the success rate Now it's kind of the opposite for Kansas So when you look at the rush offense, this is kind of comical They're 21st when an adjusted yards per carry but 80th in success rate And so that means you're you're a boom and bust type of running game They have a pretty talented star and pookal Williams. That's the running back there Was much more efficient last year in terms of yards per carry, but it seems like this year is either, you know going for a big play or You know getting stuffed So, you know Kansas has been better on offense and in looking into this game It was really interesting to look at the story of a quarterback Carter Stanley So he's been with the program two years They played three different quarterbacks last year one of which was Stanley and he was pretty good He played in the Oklahoma State game completed 75% of his passes six yards per pass attempt But the coaching staff decided to bench him the the next game anyways after a couple passes so and They weren't good on offense last year. So You know the guy stuck it out. He's there that coaching staff is not less miles has come in Less miles is not exactly known as a quarterback whisper, right But you know the Kansas, you know the path the the pass offenses has been pretty decent. So And then Kansas on defense, you know, they look like the ultimate bend, but don't break type defense They're 117th by success rate But a better 70th by adjusted yards per play. So maybe they're playing to the talents of their defense You know, the numbers really like Kansas State At minus six and a half. What did I say plus six and a half? I keep making that mistake Really want plus six and a half, but I know I'm not gonna get that Hey, look at our spires if you can get plus six and a half somewhere else. You never know but I've said it multiple times today So like no Kansas State minus six and a half it is wrong in my notes And and it's the kind of game that that I'm interested to watch and you know if Kansas is going to win this game Or if they're going to cover They need to kind of break big plays, right? They need to kind of live above and beyond what their success rate numbers say and if if Kansas State can kind of keep it Can kind of prevent those big plays And perhaps break off one of their own They should they should be able to cover in this game. And you know, I mean just just program-wise like yes, Kansas is improved But they're still not You know, they're still on the bottom end of power five teams Kansas State has been a lot better this year I think it makes sense just from a program perspective as well So it's convergence of one team on offense that is due for positive aggression and one team on defense that is due For negative regression Messing up here is interesting given that you would think Kansas State would be overvalued by the markets coming off a big win but right if the You know yards per play numbers aren't saying that they should be, you know heavy favorites It makes sense then that the markets would lean this way. So Kansas State minus six and a half lean here I think it's I like having these numbers. We can know which teams are due for aggression going forward Yeah, absolutely, and I think it's an interesting perspective for Kansas as well, right because they get the win against Texas Tech Last week they they pushed Texas to the brink which is Seems like a pretty good result. I mean, we've talked a lot about how bad Texas is second area is and then They had a game against Oklahoma where they were in the game for the game the whole first half. Yeah. Yeah, it was weird It was weird. I mean, look, I think this program is better I mean, I think less miles hasn't been the right direction. I think it's a long road until they're a respectable football program But even with all those things considered, I think you gotta like decide on Kansas State in this one You know, I think too is that Oklahoma game them keeping it close maybe taint you the way people view about them too because you know, they did keep it close the whole game But the final score is still 45 to 20 and Ken Pomeroy has always talked about how Two halves of data is better than one So the final score probably more indicative there So I think I think that makes a lot of sense to go with Kansas State minus six and a half from my cover in the future on how about Baylor and I've been interested in their numbers pretty much all year and I kind of want to hear what your numbers say about them too But I like them minus 18 at home against West Virginia. It's a big number But I'm not sure it's big enough because Baylor ranks 12th if you go to the power ink and check out the public-facing rankings Baylor is 12th there West Virginia is 77th And West Virginia as a whole is actually worse than Northwestern based on your numbers partly because Northwestern's defense is good, but That's not a good indicator if you're worse than Northwestern because they're terrible If you look at number fires numbers to kind of back that up the Baylor is 14th West Virginia 77th there So on the same page is the power rank and part of this is that Baylor should put up points against West Virginia's defense I kind of like Charlie Brewer this year But it's also I just think that West Virginia is gonna have trouble scoring points here quarterback Austin Kendall got banged up in their game Against Iowa State He did play against Oklahoma wasn't particularly good there He had just 5.9 yards per attempt and they have had a bye week to get him healthy But even for the full season before that injury his adjusted yards per attempt is 6.0, which is not good Charlie Brewer is a 10.1 on the other side It's a big improvement from where he was last year at 7.7 and 7.9 the year before So I think that the quarterback advantage is major in favor of Baylor here number fire Projects West Virginia to score just 14 points here That would mean that Baylor would need to score 32 points to cover minus 18 I think that given how good Brewer has been and how bad this West Virginia Virginia defense is I think they should get to that Especially when you look at what Baylor has done Against better defense if you look at Fandall Sportsbook right now 84% of the money is on Baylor So I would say that it's wise to grab this number before it gets any wider it open at 17 and a half It's still 17 and a half at some books So probably okay to do some price shopping there But I think Baylor minus 18 is advantageous here at but what do your numbers say about Baylor because Other places are pretty into them is adjusted success rate also in on this Baylor team Yeah, I mean I think all my numbers are in on this Baylor team. I mean they've moved up significantly. They're actually 15th In my in my member rankings that I do my member of predictions on and that's that's higher than they were this preseason You pointed to all the reasons the offense has been has been really good and West Virginia You know has dropped and you know, they obviously weren't gonna be the same team without will Greer but You know new coaching staff a lot of issues going on there Like I mentioned before like, you know, I break things down into preseason component market component And then data based on this year the database on this year certainly likes Baylor 20 they like him to win by 24 points in this game That needs to be blended in with the other stuff which puts it pretty close. Yeah, to you know What the market has but you know, if you believe that this year's data means the most for these teams And I think you can definitely make that argument Then that suggests that taking taking the points with Baylor, okay? So Baylor minus 18 and Kansas State minus six and a half the two bets here on covering the future for this week That's gonna wrap up today show but once again, we're back tomorrow with dr. Eric eager a pro football focus to get you set for week 9 of the NFL would talk with Eric about college football last time Getting some NFL takes out there this time subscribe to covering the spread to make sure you get that and while you're there Please leave a rating and review as well those help us out a ton Thank you to those of you who have left ratings over the past couple of weeks Those are very very helpful. So thank you to those of you who have done so already and we know you have your email newsletter going out tomorrow Where can people get that? Yeah, I'm at the the power rank calm. That is my site for better Football predictions through data and analytics and then I had Kevin Cole of her football focus on the podcast this week Kevin is a great person to talk to because he tends to always be right about things So we had a pretty long conversation, but not not long. We had we had a good conversation about the NFL Aaron Rogers Whether a quarterback should always try to minimize their interception rate And then some some Bayesian Analysis he did on NFL quarterbacks, which was pretty cool. He's been doing this for a while But now he's got access to all the p of f grades, right? so It's just another way of looking at that Kevin's one of those guys who I always make sure to read his tweets because he's a very intelligent person and He used to write for number fire and I was sad because he left us But it was because he got a full-time job and I'm like, oh, that's like awesome Like I like it when good people get jobs, but I'm like, oh, man. It was so cool to have him writing for number fire Yeah, I'll have to check that out. I love Kevin's work and those sound like topics He would know a lot about so I'm pretty good to check that out That's a football analytic show to hear what Kevin and Jim you gotta have a lot of time to get through all the Kevin's tweets too Oh, yeah Out there, which is great. I can't see I I can't say I read all of it like a lot of it shows up in my timeline Right, but it's like, you know, it's like kind of deep too. Oh, I just want something entertaining on Twitter It's like sometimes you get to Kevin's tweets are like All right, maybe later Yeah Well be sure to check that out the football analytics show you can find all of Ed's numbers We talked about today by going to the power rank and becoming a member there Also some public phasing stuff as well at the power I can find Ed on Twitter at the power rank I am at Jim Sonnis J I M S a N and ES You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to Calvin Theobald as always for producing for today and keeping us on the air for a video perspective. Thank you Cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in for this edition of covering the spread getting You said for week 10 of college football. Good luck with those bets We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to get you set for NFL This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network