 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network It is time to close out the week on a high note And I think we're gonna do exactly that for today by talking to Austin Cass That's an English Premier League soccer breaking down match week 26 and where he sees value at Fandall sports book Then I'll talk some NASCAR in Atlanta and let you know where my model sees value over at Fandall sports book This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research Joined here as mentioned by Austin Cass check him out on Twitter Austin Cass He is a senior editor for us at Fandall research Austin. Happy Friday to you. How you doing today? I'm doing really well. How are you Jim? I am delightful getting more APL back in our lives once again here just eight matches for this weekend as opposed to the typical 10 So we'll have to get you back on it next week. I think there are matches again next week So we'll run it back then to to get the full allotment But how things gone for you post NFL you've been able to Fill the void of no football with having other football in there. How are things gone so far? It's been good. Yeah, obviously this is this is a good time for soccer Champions League has restarted Kind of hitting the home stretch and I usually start getting into college basketball a lot right now But I'm an IU fan, so I'm not really getting super into it this year This feels like the big 10 in general isn't that good. Sorry, and the Northwestern is good No, they're part of the reason the big 10's not I think they're a decent amount worse than they were last year It's hasn't really shown up necessarily as of yet But yeah, and then, you know, you've got me in the NASCAR So I'm going to race last weekend. So that's a good time to get in to NASCAR right now You are in a NASCAR your kids are in a NASCAR. So we are spreading the good word slowly Across the entire globe. We're not done yet, by the way with that, but we're we're working on it for sure We're gonna talk to Austin about EPL Matt week 26 Let you know where he sees value for this week at Fandall Sportsbook and as mentioned I'll close things out by talking about NASCAR In Atlanta my favorite bets for this week But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We're here every weekday Monday through Friday breaking down everything from EPL to NASCAR To basketball hockey etc etc all right here in the same fee me some NFL combine betting next week potentially who can say That'll be all in the feed for covering the spread But also as we discussed yesterday the daily ISO at Tom Vecchio is now a hybrid of betting and daily fantasy show as well Each weekday Tom will go through his favorite player props for the NBA So if you want some player props that Tom likes across Friday check out the daily ISO at Tom Vecchio by searching for Fandall research podcast wherever you get your podcast Now awesome. Let's take a look here at match week 26 as I mentioned eight matches coming up for this weekend Let's begin things with the more traditional market bets anything stand out to use being values right now at Fandall Sportsbook Yeah, so that very first match there crystal palace and Burnley For casuals probably a match. They're not gonna care about at all But it's actually a huge match at the bottom of the table And then the double chance market I like Burnley and draw which was minus 130 last time I saw it Burnley are in danger of being relegated. It looks like it's at minus 125 Burnley are in danger of being relegated and kind of being set adrift at the bottom of the table If they want to climb out of the bottom three, this is a great opportunity for them to pick up some points And even just a draw would be huge And crystal palace are in 15th and they're one of the sides that Could get sucked down into the bottom three and they're heading in the wrong direction right now One of the big reasons for optimism for me is that crystal palace is without its two best players Which we say and as any guys we've talked about before With those two they're probably a pretty safe like lower to mid table team without them I think they're one of the worst teams in the league and they really lose a lot of their attacking punch Burnley's coming out of a brutal stretch of their season in terms of their schedule Over their last eight matches in all competitions six have been Against the what's called like traditional big six clubs The two that were against non big six teams Burnley got a draw on each match And despite the tough slate Burnley have totaled at least one point. I'll expect the goals per fbrs model and five of their last six matches So they're showing a little juice here lately I think they made some additions in the January transfer window that are going to help them out I don't hate Burnley to win But I'm opting for the Burnley and draw bet because if this batch is tied in the second half We'll probably see crystal palace get very defensive and play for the draw because the point isn't a bad result at all for them Given where they are on the table As you mentioned right now at that market is minus 135 for Burnley and draw on the double chance market if Andal sports book we were betting against crystal palace This past week with everton and they did get a draw there So as you mentioned a very good result for them But you sent me the xg data from that game and it looks like that one one draw for crystal palace may have been a bit misleading Yeah, for sure. I can't recall the exact numbers. Um, I think it was like 1.9 to like Maybe right around one 1.91 to 0.73 ever to win an xg in that game Yeah, that kind of sums up everton season really so far, but uh, yeah, they really got battered that game and We're very fortunate to score the goal that they scored and only give up on goals So, yeah, they're heading in the wrong direction until they get alisa and as a back there They're going to be in a lot of trouble. They've probably given themselves enough cushion here where they won't be relegated but I would think from bernley's perspective, they're going to view this as a game that they can win and that Obviously where bernley's at right now getting three points would be massive for them. So I think They're going to be going all out. This is basically going to be a cup final for bernley and palace They're going to have some nerves about man, if we lose this game What we can find ourselves in a bad place here. So Yeah, I kind of like bernley's chances here this weekend sneaky fun match too given all that is on the line for Both clubs right now. So austin likes bernley and draw the double chance market minus 135 meaning The result would be a win if bernley wins or if this is a draw on saturday Any of the traditional market bets you like across match week 26 here austin So i'm going to jump all the way to the last game of the match week because it's on monday west ham and brentford Uh, the the bees i'm like i like brentford to win in this match. It's plus 170 um The bees are going to have the rest disadvantage after they just played midweek, uh Against manchester city and that's that's a legit concern for me, especially An exhausting match against city where they're kind of running around without the ball for most of the game Although they they played pretty well. It was just a 1-0 result, but uh By the xg numbers brentford have been much better team this year Uh, the bees have an xg differential of plus 2.7 And they've done that despite not having their best player evan tony until just recently Uh, uh west ham's xg differential is negative 12.6. That's actually 16th So they're very fortunate to be ninth in the table and of late they started to get the results that they've deserved all along They haven't won a match since december 28th They just lost on xg 2.8 to 0.5 at nottingham forest last time out And they lost at brentford uh three two earlier this season And that was a brentford team without tony like I said Uh brentford have lost four of their past five pictures, but uh four of those losses came to man city Who they actually played twice kind of a funky thing with the schedule? Uh liverpool and tottenham So it's been a really tough stretch for them But since they've returned they've won both of their uh since tony's return. Sorry They've won both of their two matches against non big six sides And I think they should actually be slight favorites here against west ham So i'm happy to roll the dice on brentford at plus 170 That is plus 170 as you mentioned uh for brentford taking on west ham now They are on the road here for this match up taking on west ham Did you give any consideration to checking out the double chance market for this one as well? Because brentford in draw is minus 195. So you're paying a lot to get the draw in there as well, but Was that ever a consideration for you or is the plus 170 just a bit too much to pass up? Um, I thought about it and I looked at it and I kind of had the same reaction as you did when you saw that It was minus 195. Yeah, um the tino bet market would I almost talked myself into that But you're obviously gonna you pay for it there too, right? It's not as much but The more I looked at things the more I thought I think brentford's gonna win the game And so that plus 170 number is pretty appealing to me Okay, that's for the brentford money line. Austin did mention the tino bet market That is plus 102 for brentford there, which means if it is a draw You would get your stake back for that specific bet So the two traditional market bets austin is on in this weekend Burley and draw minus 135 in the double chance market is a take on crystal palace and then brentford to win plus 170 Taking on west ham. What about player approach? Any of those stand out to you as things stand right now Yeah, so i'm gonna Stay with the scorer assist market that i like so much and i'm going to go to the new castle at arsenal match That's at three o'clock on saturday So there's no getting up early to make sure this guy plays but on ian vakao sokata scorer assist He handles penalties For arsenal and the majority of their corners So that gives him several extra outs in this market for the year. He's got 12 goals and seven assists So 19 combined goals plus assist in 24 starts He's on fire at the moment, too. He has seven goals and one assist across his last six league We're really saw a defensive team a year ago, but they've fallen apart on d this season with injuries playing a big part in that They've actually conceded the fourth most ex g in the league Arsenal are at minus 290 to go over one and a half goals So they're expected to score and create chances and i like sokata's odds of Getting in with a goer assist there and this Minus 130 35 numbers a pretty good number for a player who takes penalties and handles a lot of corners So minus 135 as you mentioned for sokata to score or assist in the arsenal versus new castle match Is this one where you do want to wait again before lineups come out? I'd be out at two o'clock eastern on saturday, or are you okay locking that one in now? I'm okay doing it now because sokata typically plays almost every game and plays every minute of every game And given where arson are at in the title race with liverpool and man city. They probably won't be arrested guys Very often especially against a pretty decent new castle team Okay, so austin is on bokeh yusaka at minus 135 to score or assist and that is one He is okay with locking in now and not waiting until lineups come out on saturday That is austin cast make sure you check him out on twitter at austin cast and find his work over at fan Do a research where he is a senior editor austin appreciate the time as always Enjoy the soccer and the NASCAR this weekend and we'll talk to you once again next week Sounds good. Thank you, Jim Alrighty, thank you as well austin again find us on twitter at austin cast We're going to talk some NASCAR in atlanta this weekend go through where i see value for the cup series and potentially Accident series there in just one second But first get buckets with your first bet on fan dual america's number one sports book right now New customers get 150 dollars in bonus bets with any winning five dollar bet That's 150 bucks if your bet wins better than all your favorite NBA players and teams with quick bets live same game parlays exclusive props and much more Just visit the fan dual app and shoot your shot fan dual official sportsbook partner of the nba must be 21 plus and president select states first online real mini wager only $10 first deposit required Bonus issued is non-controllable bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat see terms at sportsbook dot fan dual dot com Fan dual is offering online sports waging in kansas under an agreement with kansas star casino llc gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler over the fan dual dot com slash rg colorado iowa michigan new jersey ohio pennsylvania illinois kentucky tennessee virginia and vermont call 1 800 next step or text the next step to five three three four two in arizona 188 789 7777 or for the ccpg dot org slash jack connecticut 1809 with an indiana 1805 22 4700 or visit ksgaminghealth.com in kansas 18077 770 stop in louisiana visit md gambling health.org in maryland 180 gambler.net in west virginia 1805 222 1 700 in wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org Or call 100 327 50 50 for 24 7 support in massachusetts or call 1 8 770 hope and why our text open why in new york Let's shift focus now and talk about some nascar in atlanta We got the truck series infinity series and cup series in atlanta For this weekend so a triple header once again truck and excinity series on saturday with the cup series on sunday Luckily no rate in the forecast this time around Let's take a look here at the cup series odds at vandal sports book and try to identify some value there and What we saw in Daytona last week was hendrick motorsports a chevy team Sweeping the top two spots in the finishing order william byron first alex bowman second That could lead you to think chevy could do well again this week given that it's a very similar track where drafting does matter Once again, it's the same the super speedway package as well But at super speedway as always Finishes can be pretty deceiving and i think that's leaving us some value at fandall for this week They're actually a decent number of drivers who are values by my numbers to win this race You know at least slim values But i can get exposure to every single one of those drivers By just two bets at fandall sports book Those two bets are forward to win at plus 180 or bubble wallace to win at 20 to 1 Wallace is the only non ford driver on whom i'm showing value right now. Everyone else is a ford And that's why i want to bet him we'll start with ford first and Delve into why we want to go there that will circle back to wallace in just one second right now fandall sports book forward to win is plus 180 The implied odds are 35.7 percent there And we got a lot of guys showing value for me who are ford's joey legano is Um the favorite by my model. He is a value 12 to 1 at fandall sports book And almost every single steward house racing driver is a value two So i could swing it a long shot like one of those shr cars or I could just take the entire manufacturer to win at plus 180 forward Swept the front row and qualifying at datona. They also led 98 out of 200 laps in that race And that speed they showed there should matter more this weekend in atlanta Given that it's a bit more of an equipment center track than what we had in datona Two favorites for my model are joy legano and ryan blaney both those guys are ford's and when you combine all the fords together I've got ford winning this race 41 percent of the time the implied odds are 35.7 percent So a decent amount of value for me on ford to win So yeah, I could go with some individual guys here to win this race Uh, it's specifically looking at legano or the shr cars, but I'd rather go with just ford together plus 180 at fan dual sportsbook As being right now my favorite bet of the weekend in atlanta As mentioned the other driver showing value for me is bubble wallace individually at 20 to 1 And there are a couple reasons why I've got wallace pretty high in my model for this weekend wallace 5.8 percent to win here is implied odds at 20 to 1 or 4.8 percent and You look at wallace's track record in the cup series two career wins for him But those came on a super speedway and a mile and a half track and atlanta is a blend of both those track types It skews more towards super speedways at least in the cup series side of things And that's where wallace has recorded six out of 17 career top five finishes. One of those did come last week in datona Toyota overall was good there. They won both qualifying races didn't flex a ton of muscle during the race, but I thought they were overall in a good position to potentially When that race had denny hamlin not gotten caught up in a wreck wallace was actually a crash as well But again small sample for that just that one race Also a small sample with wallace in atlanta specifically because there his track record hasn't been that great But I think a lot has been due to bad luck He had one year where he had a mechanical issue pretty early on the race And I think he'll snap into place here eventually based on what he has done both a mile and a half And at super speedways So personally I am going to side with the model here. I'm going to go with both routes again If I do forward to win it plus 180 and then wallace to win a 20 to 1 That's going to get the exposure to every single driver Was an outright value by my model and I think that's the best route to playing things as of right now So my two favorite bets are wallace to win 20 to 1 and forward to win At plus 180 there was one matchup showing value earlier on. I do want to check to see where that's at right now Actually, still a values. Let's talk about it. Uh, the other bet I like for the cup series this week Is ryan blaney in a matchup against kyle arson. That's minus 112 now this violates one of the big Like big no-nose a super speedway betting where You're gonna have a hard time finding value in a matchup bet given how volatile These tracks are unless it's plus money. This is not a minus 112 implied odds there almost 53 percent so Typically i'm not going to do this But with this specific pairing i'm gonna do it blaney is awesome on pack tracks Multi-time winner recently larson sucks. He's honestly been terrible self-admitted terrible on pack tracks. So It's kind of just betting on blaney and having faith in that and fading larson here Which adds up to be for me to be enough to overcome the minus 112 My model has this at 57 percent And like I think that's probably pretty correct It does take advantage or take account Take into account the volatility of the track type the odds that both these guys could crash and this is based on Who crashes when that determines whether this bet wins? So it's accounting for that 57 percent there But the results are actually even more slanted towards blaney the cup series has run 13 races on Pack tracks during the next gen era and blaney has beaten larson in 10 of those 13 races So my model shows this as a value of 57 percent versus 53 implied the results say this is a value two and Like as I don't know like a tape bro for nascar I think that it's a value two because blaney is good larson sucks on this track type Hendrick has been good at alana, but Team penske won the other one that they did not win So I'm going to go blaney minus 112 over larson in this matchup betta fandall sportsbook So three cup series bets for me in the in uh in atlanta Blaney over larson minus 112 forward to win at plus 180 and then bubble loss to win at 20 to 1 On the Xenity series side of things is not a ton of value for me right now Austin hill does suck up a good amount of win equity for this one because It is a bit more predictable on the Xenity series side not running a super speedway package There is drafting involved, which is why hill is the justified favorite, but Not a lot of win equity all around I do show valiant rally herpes 12 to 1 I will say that fandall is higher on herpes than a lot of other sportsbooks are And I'm higher than fandall is which means I am well above market on herpes Which is always a little bit scary, but I know why the model is here and I generally do agree with it Herpes one of the mile and a half track last year could have won Daytona had he not had a I don't know questionable penalty. Let's say that that's on the late restart I thought he had a chance to win that one So it's a combination of I wouldn't say he's similar to bubble loss and that like you you want him on Mile and a half and super speedways, but I do tend to like herpes and super speedways He's pretty good in the draft. He's been getting a lot better in other track types, too So 12 to 1 is not bad. I will be honest I have herpes did 9.4 to win implied odds at 12 to 1 are 7.7 percent. So even at this Number where fandall is shorter than the market. I do still show value on herpes to win Should I I don't know because I'm above A book that is above market on this guy, but I understand why the model is there I've got hill at 18.9 percent to win. So not super far off plus 350 on him But I do think overall I'm okay with herpes that 12 to 1 you know Keep in mind that other books are longer than this because it does say that I am taking I am okay above market again a book that is above market on him, but personally, I think that The model is above him for a reason. So I do like herpes 12 to 1 to win on the XINITY series side of things as well That is all that we have here for today and this week on covering the spread I want to give a big thank you once again to austin cask for swinging by breaking down his thoughts on epl match week 26 Check out awesome on twitter at austin cask. I am on twitter at jim saunas You can find me on threads at jim dot saunas and check out fandall research on twitter at fandall research I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you your bets across this weekend We'll talk to you once again next week for five shows on the docket This has been covering the spread right here on the fandall podcast network