 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman, call now, toll-free at 1-877-927-6648. Good morning, everyone, Basil Chapman here on this beautiful bright lovely day here in the Boston area. We're looking at the Dow down 45, Monday the 8th of May, getting well into that month, had a pretty spectacular move on Wednesday, on Friday. Look at this. This is, you remember the techniques that I was using, let me just go right here, straight to it, and I'll do this with the nine-period moving average. Look, the Dow is down 40 at 30,632. And one of the things we were looking at is that nine-period moving average turning negative, it took a long time. What I looked for was an M-shaped pattern, but that M-shaped pattern did exactly what we wanted, and the Dow fell sharply and had a spectacular runner on Friday. But you see that it's still S at the nine-period, it's still under the 14, which means that there's still overhead resistance. But wait a minute. Look at the S&P using the same technique, simple technique. One day negative, and the next thing we know crosses positive, the nine-period moving average, but it doesn't do that very often. And if it does do that, I'm just scrolling back here, look how many times I've done that. Not very often, we went through this on Friday, right there, it's the same characteristic that I was looking for where we did not continue down, still we turned up. And you can just go back, I'm scrolling to the daily chart, the big thick gray line is the closing price of the S&P, low and behold, not even there, I'm trying to find it. So I've got to be really careful, the only time it's done it to the downside was way back in January of 2020, right there, January 2022, 11th of January, it went from a short, a very quick short to a very quick buy, and then a very quick turn down to pink, and then it continued on its way down. So it's a process, it's always a process, and in this particular instance what we are looking at is, the QQQ didn't even get that far, it didn't even cross negative, it is still holding positively, and you can see it had a one day reversal and then went right back to L, meaning long, but I'm beginning to see signs of some deterioration, and it's become so selective, although in a sense Friday turned into a fairly broad rally, it was a broad rally against the backdrop of being led by spectacular move of, look at meta, Facebook, look at that huge move up, and it got the 9 period moving average to deflect higher without going pink back around the end of April, it's still green, but you can see the prices starting to wear down, if you're looking at a Microsoft, same thing, very good move, it went one day green to red, so to pink, and then back to L green, so I'm looking at this as a process, what I said to subscribers, I would not be surprised if we are looking at a rectangle formation, and a rectangle formation will give us a very good clue this week to say, and this we've got in the Dow, which is a rectangle between the 34,000, 5,600 area, and the 33,000, I'd even go as far as to say 32,500, so it's stuck within this range, and you can keep doing that for a little while as everything gets repaired, now wait a minute, let's just go to gold and look at the same technique now, gold has a spiral to the upside with a leg D in the Chapman Methodology, D is where other things can happen, it's a leg F in the weekly chart, it's a leg, a brand new leg, great leg A in the monthly chart, but here's the issue, then if you look at this, look at the higher highs in gold, it's made higher highs, and that's very impressive, now look at this, if I draw in a resistance line, Chapman Wave, inside track, repellent zone, in the gold, you're right here, you're right here in the resistance area, so I'm looking at this and I'm saying, all right, I'm trying to put the package together for my subscribers to my opening call, we'll still call on from the October lows and the down, the three times longer, we've had a trading position, we've had a trading position, the short side and the S&P, the day after the high was made, we took profits on Friday, this is going to be very interesting, you remember that, I like to look at inside track repellent zones, so let's just use this as a template, so here's gold, and remember what we're looking at is, within the inside track repellent and propellent zones, there is a rising wedge narrowing, and we saw that, I drew it very distinctly in the S&P, look there it is in the daily, look this is the same chart, it has higher highs that keep hitting a resistance level, higher lows that keep hitting a support level, look at the dow, it's the same thing, here we go, look at this, there's that rising pennant flag, it's a tapering pennant flag, pulls back and gets hit right there at the resistance area, so I'm trying to put charts together and I'm saying wait a minute, if the financials had a really strong session on Friday, pulling back some today, was that a one-off, was KRE, the XLF up 6 cents at 32.39, in this Chapman Wave falling x formation, lower highs and much lower lows, but wait a minute, I spoke about this on KRE, this is S&P Regional Banking ETF, I'm pulling charts, I'm going to come right back to those charts, and we're looking at, I'll look at gold once more, but there was a potential for a Chapman Wave price of volume climax on Friday, so on Thursday, and the the requisite pop above the gap down high, the following session, and a close above it, that was important, it's in a sector that's been under duress, under extreme duress, is this really the low in the KRE, that's going to say for 28 days, it's not going to take out the 34.52, lower 4 on the 4th of May, well I prefer technically to see three gaps, three big candles down with two big gaps, we got one gap, so this has got part of the requisite, this other thing I haven't really back tested enough charts to say really should be three big big candles with two gaps to the downside with the volume climax low, that spirals to the upside immediately, so all I can say is just I'm going empirically on my knowledge that I have so far, but I haven't done a statistical count, so what I can say is I'm watching this closely because if the regional banks can finally find some support, there's a chance that the GDX and gold, maybe even silver, really holds well because of other factors, other big economic factors, but as a financial crisis that part of it could be eased for a little while before the next big bank crisis, I don't know this is the way I'm looking at it, so now let's go back to the charts, so I looked at gold and I said this rising wedge formation and it's a narrowing wedge, it says very simply that if gold takes out 1973 support in the next week and a half on a closing basis, it's kind of done for this phase, just for this phase, and that would be that perhaps going to see the financials in this effort a pretty well-deserved recovery phase for at least a little bit, three to five weeks maybe, I'll be back in a moment, down's down, 55 S&B's down. 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Internationally at 727-873-7618. Hi, folks. So, we're back and talking patterns. The rectangle pattern means you can stay in this rectangle. It's a large rectangle that's becoming a narrow one in the down the weekly chart. You can stay in this range a lot longer than your patients looking at the S&P. I'm watching this very closely because if the nine-period moving average, if you get it to flip back to negative, you'd have to see the S&P below 4,000 and 80, probably 75. That'll probably turn it back to negative. And I would not be surprised if this would be what we're seeing is a rotation, a testing of the strength that we saw to see whether or not the flip to the upside on Friday has sustainability because normally you would get at least a good part, if not 30 percent, maybe even 50 percent of the last hour and a half's rally on, in this case, on Friday. You'd give back some of that. I still see some buying, but it's tentative buying now today. If we gapped up and right now the Dow was up 230, the S&P was up about 58 or 60 points, I'd say, you know what? That was a very significant turn, at least for the very short term. Right now I think it's an effort. The market is vulnerable at this particular point to sudden news stories that come out, that impact, and then you get covering on the short side or you get buying on the short side, more shorting. So at this particular point, here's the pattern where we went to the rising wedge, this is the narrowing wedge formation, pennant, and what happened was we went under it, now we're back in it. Look at the S&P, look at the Dow. The Dow went under it and now is being repelled at exactly the point that was the form of support, now it's resistance. Now I want you to just do this IWM. It had tried a rally, now it's down 70 cents and 177, now it's so interesting. The iShares, the Russell 2000, I mentioned this in my video for subscribers, my Aolong video, this is besides the webinar that I did, but my Aolong video on Saturday as an overview, I mentioned that I had just a slew, in fact I didn't even remember seeing as many, when the oil service stocks were moving, I saw this, but I had 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11. About 23 very low-price stocks, streamers, underneath $10, flashed over the last couple of days. Hey, I mean that's really, I mean here's one, I think I mentioned it the other day, Alec, this is Alec Tor Therapeutics for neurodegenerative diseases, it's spectacular, and you wouldn't expect on that that it would still go even higher. Look at this, it popped today from Friday's 740s to today's $7.51 cents, it hit 7.71. So a lot of these things, and they're telling me that money is trying to find its way into areas that have the potential, like the micro biotech stocks, some of them really took a clobbering over the last couple of weeks, now trying to come back, but it's really interesting. So all right, enough with that, what I wanted to do is go back to the story, just say, look in the GDX, the GDX is up 7 cents right now, 3547, when you've had this kind of a move and you've made the cup formation, what I like to do is to assess the vertical technicals, when it makes the left side high, the cup formation, and then the right side high, and all it says is if the technicals are weaker, you can pull back, it doesn't say, oh my god, now you're going to crash, it just says, watch out for a pullback, if you take out the trough, the cup low, you can go a lot lower, and from a move like this, you can actually go quite a bit lower if you close below that, but if you're holding steady, you can go from a cup formation to a double U formation, that's how the letter W comes from, it's two Us stuck together, it's funny that I mentioned that, because it took me forever to actually realize that that's what a W was, I'm sure somewhere I'd be told, but I just said W, but now I say W and I'm thinking, ah, two Us, and that's what we're looking at, the chances of a little bifocals there, you've got your cup, you've got your second cup, we'll see if that's going to hold, but it is holding extremely well, if you look at Silver SI, Silver did the same thing, it didn't take out the left, I think it did by a fraction, let me just double check, it might have done it by a couple of pennies, so the high that was made on the 14th of April, this is the continuous contract, at 26.44 had a high less than a month later of 20, yeah that's a 24.40, if I can read the John thing, 43, by pennies it failed to take that out, so you've got yourself a little potential cup formation or a failure pattern, unless it starts to trade, if Silver, there's a continuous contract, actually starts to trade at 26.68 in that area, 26.68 and touches 27.15 this week, I will be very impressed and say, you know what, that weekly chart with all the technicals, the stochastic study at 85%, the MACD good, the 9 period over the 14, you're just saying that for the month of April, this month of May, there's a really good chance for the first time that Silver continuous contract in the monthly chart is going to hold above the inside track repellent zone, it went above it last month, but it didn't hold, it closed just on the line and now it's holding above it, so this is a very important moment in just on a purely technical basis, the other aspect I wanted to talk about is the dollar is holding steady, it's really stuck in a sideways trading band, it's not a very particularly strong weekly pattern or monthly pattern, it looks like it wants to go even lower, but if the dollar trading at 101.14 down 8 ticks right now is able to get to the 101, it doesn't have to close, it just has to touch 101.68, 101.72 and all of a sudden you've got yourself a pattern that says the MACD could deflect higher, the stochastic which is very weak at 30%, on balance volume is still very weak, it has a chance to repair some damage and modestly move up, I don't see a big move into the 103s, not at this particular point, it might change in another couple of days, but those signs aren't there yet, but it can hold steady and holding steady is quite good, but the trouble is look at the euro, the euro is trading just walking the nine-period moving average, slips under the 14, uses that as a spring board and then closes over and over and over again above the green line, it's trading at 1.102, up 0.00105 and this is the weekly chart, the weekly chart is just holding steady at the most recent highs, very good action and the monthly chart as in a leg B, and if you look at the USDJPY, this is the yen, the Japanese yen currency pair, you'll see that it did exactly what we were looking at recently, about a month ago, I drew this in and I said there's a chance that you could get a rally to the 137.91 high of March and it would take until, and I drew in the Chapman Wave Cup formation with the inside wedge target resistance line, the left side, right side price time match to a particular candle, which was not the lower, the trough, it was moved over to the right to a particular candle and it's said by the 2nd of May, it should try for the 137.91 level and what did it do? It went to 137.77 and then turned down, so yes it listed by a fraction but it went right to the door and then turned around and now it's holding the 200-period moving average at 134.93, up 0.09, I'll be right back, down's down, 92. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious timer of the year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing at number two for the year, an amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability newsletter. Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's market newsletter, Mastering Probability and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. 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I think it's got a little resistance here. It's holding okay. More importantly, the monthly looks just horrible, the weekly looks terrible and the data is doing very nicely considering that it was at 750 just recently. It popped up to the 1150 area, doji candle to peak D making low lows and low highs. Yeah, I'd just be real careful with this. I don't have to tell you because you use options all the time, GT, but I would just say make sure that it doesn't close suddenly below 10, even 1015. Closes on 1015 is just going to be back in the stock range, but a very short-term pop sets fine. Another question I had was going to look at FXI, FXI. Now, this is going to be interesting because I know that you're basing your XPEV a little bit on the action of the iShares China large cap ETF, which is up 16 cents at 28.82, is playing catch up, had a good session Friday, had a gap up today, of course overseas trading, says a gap up, hit 29.01, now 28.82. I think that this is telling me that it is in play, but it is in play in a smaller range and that the lowercase H successfully held the left side low in the weekly chart. And now I'm looking at a potential H pattern that goes to a lowercase M-shaped formation. So that says, like XPEV, it could also bounce, but it's more, actually, it's a little bit, in a way, it's a little bit better pattern than the XPEV, but I'm just looking at it and say, okay, if you're long, I don't know if you are, but if you're looking at this as a play to the upside, there's the inside track repellent zone, the falling X formation as well, and all I can say is, if FXI trading at 28.81 is able, by Wednesday or even Thursday, without closing under 28.50, if it's able to get to 29.65, just 64 percent above today's high, I would say that's good action. That's suggesting that, yes, there is some buying going on here, but that buying is all within the containment area. Question I had about what was a DXJ, DXJ. Why am I forgetting DXJ is? Oh, I had this all notated once upon a time. This is the WT, oh, oh, oh, I was talking about WT. This is the WT, this is the Wisdom Tree, I believe, Japan, oh, isn't that a coincidence, Japan Holdings Equity Fund. So look at this peak, and let me just do this live here. So this is very interesting. This is the monthly chart, peak A, peak B. All I'm doing is counting each successively higher peak, peak D. Now the question is, is this an instant restart? No, it's not. Is this a new high? Hard to tell. It could be within pennies. So the eye of 63.29 in September of last year, or two years ago, 37, and you had 29. Yeah, so that's E and F. Oh, this is really interesting. Oh, thank you for bringing this up. E, F pulls back, pulls back for one month. And then the next month just continues on its ways. If nothing had happened, this is like a related instant restart, but you never get them. D is the only place I talk about Chapman Wave instant restarts. A, B, oh, this is so interesting. Thank you for bringing this to my attention. This is 73.34, 73.29, and there's your leg D, the Chapman Wave methodology. We're always looking for a buy signal to go to at least, go to a buy mode that's going to go to at least four higher peaks. It's after that that anything can happen. So it's already achieved this second buy mode in the monthly chart. Oh, this is so interesting. I'm looking at this now. Now I have to open, I open a chart as much as I can as far back because I want to pick the lowest, most identifiable load. That's when you can do your wave count. So this goes A, B, and I'm going in the weekly chart. There's another A because it's lower than that. But as your starting point, so I'll put an up arrow right here. And it's walking the 9-period moving average, just once for one bar, two bars. It went pink and then went back to green. Oh, this is so fantastic. B right there, and then a little mini A right there. This is the reason why I start from the low bar. Every peak gets counted. And now look what happened. We go C1, C2, and a brand new buy signal right here. Oh, what a nice chart. And what is this again? This is the Japan Holding Equity Fund. And I don't know what to have in it. I wouldn't know because I don't follow the Japanese stocks. Well, I'll follow some, but I'll follow them in the context of the US market. Okay, interesting. So now what we've got is I'm just going to join. When I can see lines that I can join, I join them. Look at that. Oh, my goodness. Look at that. Is that not a chat wave inside track? A repellent zone right there? Look at that. Going back to 2021. This is the high that was made late March, early April. And look at this beautiful, look at this. Like that. And then I join. Beautiful bull formation with rising highs and rising lows. Let's get out of the weekly chart and see we are. Thank you so much. That's really good. Now we're going to go to the low to 200-period moving average. March the 13th or so. And then it goes peak A. Oh, this is something worth watching. Now I'm not sure I would get a position in this because it's a slow mover, but it's really moving up with higher highs and higher lows. But what I am interested in and very interested in in fact is that it's telling me that in some some countries, certain sectors are doing extremely well. You cannot rule out that this is a sector rotation and as a sector rotation, it's a sector rotation within countries and yes, Japan. So let me just look at the Nike Nike. This is not Nike. This is Nikai NK. Continuous contract. I haven't updated it for a while. Yeah, look at that. Peak A, peak B, peak C. And then it takes a long. Is that the low? Yep, that's the low. And then it goes under it. Peak A, peak B, peak leg C. Okay. So Japan is doing very nicely. The Nikai is doing very nice. I'm so pleased I saw that. That's really important to know. And I'll be back in a moment, DHHJ, but I didn't actually get any story on the DHHJ what to look at. So we'll be back. We're looking at the DHHJ, Japan holdings. I'll be right back. That was down. The gold report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The gold report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers, consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the dollar, bonds, the South African RAND, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations. The gold report. New subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's gold report newsletter now at TFNN.com. CBC. Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. 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An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four Side Fund Services, LLC. Probably an inverse in many ways and we're looking at it going to higher highs, in fact, all-time high. So this is going to be really important. Thank you for bringing to my attention because I'm looking at this and I'm saying if I'm correct in this drawing of the trend line, simple trend line that anybody can draw, you just take a ruler, everyone has that on your trading platform, and you take the outer wicks, the highs, and then you go in about three-sixteenths of an inch or to the body of some of the candles, and that just says that if this closes on a weekly basis, it's a 73-28 down a penny right now. A closing over 70, I'll have to make it higher, 74, 73, and it takes a little while to move a point. So if it closes above, I'm going to be a little bit brazen, I'm going to say let's go further out, 76.10. If it closes above 76.10, I suspect we're looking at a general weaker American market for a while if this is the relationship that I'm looking at right now, but in the meantime, based on the Nikai, also doing very nicely, looks not unsimilar. This is saying that Japan right now is finally seeing a very big, a very long-term consolidation all the way from 2021 back about January, February, and yet we are almost at that same level of 29,000 in the futures, 29,015, just stuck, and I can, I've been seeing this pattern more and more, where overall there's a cut formation, even though they're one or two little pops above the left side high, the pattern itself says, except for one spike to the downside, it's mostly higher lows and higher highs, but then it gets to the strong 30,000. So if the Nikai, together with the DXJ, if the DXJ is trading at 30,170 at any point, in this case I'm going to say at any point can hold there for a week, anytime in May, that would be a really good action. Okay, now let's go back to a couple of things. Question came in about, let me just do this. Yeah, there it is. I'm going to look at, what was the question? I think you had a couple of stocks, some of them are PCT. So PCT, very interesting. This is pure cycle tech, I think we looked at it a couple of times over the last week or so, recycles contaminants into pure polypropylene, and I'd say this is really strong. There's a big rectangle formation in the dating. If it breaks above it, that's going to be very good action. Today it did, it broke above the 200-period moving average. PCT is the symbol, trading at 7.53 up 28 cents right now in leg D, but the MACD is good, the stochastic is at 86%. The on-balance volume is a little overbought, a good little overbought. The 90s way above the 40, and the prices were even above the 200. So far, this is really good action. This is in play, but it looks to me on a very short-term basis. It needs to hold $6.80, $6.80 this week. If there's a pullback below that, that's a problem. If it actually has even an eye blink push into the 7.76 area, another 20 cents above this, it's starting to turn the 200-period moving average of the 7.20s into some kind of a support. Wouldn't that be something? All right, next question came in. So I'm getting my updated email, I believe. I've got some people that I can see quite nicely have sent emails. The last couple of days have been a little fuzzy because Comcast did a whole bunch of things that I had to get updated, and not all of it is as smooth as it was before, but I'm not sure if this is current or not. I'm not sure did Nvidia come out with earnings, or they still to come out with earnings. It's down a dollar at $2.85, had a fabulous rate. Look at this weekly, the Chapman Wave Cup and ladle breakout pattern. Oh, I love this pattern, but it's going from this gap. It's not a full breakout in terms of the larger cup formation. So let me just do this live. I can't do that to make the plumb line the low over there, but I'm going to go to the actual plumb line, which is the low, because we should be able to get right there. And this is the low right here. So I've got to move that one bar in. Now that becomes green, I read, and this becomes green. And it says, Nvidia has an exact price time plumb line low. Oh my, I love this. Isn't this so fascinating? Look at it. There's your plumb line. I made it a little earlier before using a particular candle, but now look at this. There's your plumb line from that low, the low of 108.12 back in October. And the left side high that I chose was the high of March, no April the first, the week of the first, 289.46 comes down to 108. I'd say that's a bit of a pullback here. The all-time high was, in fact, way back in November of 2021, 346.75. Yes, your Chapman Wave inside wedge, target, resistance line, it did that first gap peak beautifully. And now, wait, I should be getting some comments from my Nvidia appraiser. I'll be back to that in a moment. There it is. So that was it. That's your Chapman Wave inside wedge, target, repellent line right there, green. So this is the standard stuff I do all the time, every day, all the different charts if they need and that took us to the week of the 28th of April to get to the left side high of, what did I say it was, 289.46. Let me type that in to 289.46. Left side, right side, price-time match. And what did we go to on Friday? A day late arm, sorry it was a day late, and it went to the exact resistance line, dashed line of 290.38. Oh, less than a dollar away after a year and it's a year, April to April. After a year. Yep, after a year. So isn't that interesting? Now it's getting into the resistance area, but the technicals are still extremely strong and the stochastic is flat. Oh, that's right, our TFN analyst says, time to pump Nvidia. I don't pump anything. I'm telling you right now, I'm just looking at the chart and Nvidia had a really strong rally on Friday and today it's gone, pulled back, but now it's running quite nicely. I have to tell you this is a really good looking chart and it's one of the prime sources of the SMH is holding so well because some of those stocks in the SMH semiconductor index have done terribly. Advanced micro devices went all the way down to the 200-period moving average. Just from the recent month and a half in the 102th area, it pulls back to the 80s and now it's at 90.72. I need to see the SMHs do very well. I need to see the SMHs running and leading the market. Right now they're kind of lagging and sort of following the market. I'll be back in a moment, puzzle chapter. Oh, we've got one mistake to do. 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For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Of course we're back, so thank you very much for an explanation. The wisdom to see Japan hedged equity funds seeks to provide exposure to the Japanese equity market while hedging exposure to fluctuations between the US dollar and the yet. Hey, that explains exactly the chart that I'm looking at. Thank you. I was a little confused about some of the aspects, but now I'm not. I'm just typing this in here to help myself. I'll make it smaller sometime later. Look at this. I showed my subscribers this almost for weeks now. I've been looking at this WT. I spoke about this on Thursday and Friday. Wisdom Tree Inc. Exchange traded funds, fixed income, currencies, commodities, making a new recovery high as we speak. That is really important. What I'm looking at. Isn't that interesting? This is telling us about the market and it's looking at this market and saying, oh, what are you getting upset about? I'm making higher highs and mostly higher lows. The monthly chart is starting to improve. We'll look at this again tomorrow and do it in a little bit more detail. What I want you to do now is just to sum up a couple of questions. ASPN, I don't know if I've got time for that. This is real quickly ASPN. Here we go. ASPN something, I bet. Very strong move up. It's trading at $0.760 up $0.17. I would make the support that really needs to hold $0.720, $0.715 if it goes under. That's a problem, shorter term, but it is trying to rally. It's made a leg B. Today could be a peak B. It needs to get to $0.1855 by Wednesday to say this is not going to make one of those quick moves to the upside and then fail, it will continue. A question I got about Tesla. Tesla's moving quite nicely today. It's up $0.7717.83. It almost looks like, it doesn't look very much like the FXI fund that we were looking at a little earlier. This is holding well $0.165 is ready key support the next few days. I like what I'm seeing right now. I think just consolidating off the spectacularly, maybe another day of service consolidation, then if we make higher highs this week, that's very positive.