 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network The next four days are gonna be awesome Friday We got the women's final four Saturday the men's final four Sunday the women's championship And then Monday the men finish things off to round out this tournament season here to break it all down and preview The final four for both the men's and the women's tournaments is Dr. Ed Fang We're gonna talk to Ed get his read on the women's side of things talk about that you converse Iowa matchup break down the men's side and let you know where Ed is seeing value over at Fandall sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as mentioned by Dr. Ed Fang find his work at the Power Inc.com check him out on Twitter at the Power Inc. As well Ed It is a delight to get you back on the show here today. How you doing? I'm doing great really looking forward to the final four and some pretty awesome basketball action and Yeah, we'll see you know We got you con on both sides and I think they're an interesting team to talk about and he stayed on both sides too So it's gonna be a pretty fun final four to discuss But I have not talked to you since the brackets came out and we had that show on Monday after that But how's attorney been for you so far? Turn has been good. I mean I've been more kind of invested in Props that I've been giving out to my members and those have been going pretty well So pretty happy about that as far as the bracket stuff goes I mean obviously you con was kind of your small pool favorites chalky thing and that's looked pretty good so far I think their biggest, you know, the biggest enemy is complacency And it you know, it'll be interesting with the men just because like look if they if they really have to beat Alabama and North Carolina Yeah, I mean NC State to win the championship I mean clearly they are dynasty. They won back-to-back, but I would be very disappointed We're actually the case. I want to see them play at least a Purdue, right So but but I don't know I guess I guess playing NC State would be good for brackets Yeah Some big spreads for both the men's games We'll talk about those in a second first We'll talk to Ed about his thoughts and women's tournament and get you ready for Friday here on the show But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You can find us on Apple podcast Spotify anywhere else you find your podcast just search for covering the spread hit subscribe You like what you hear leave us a five star rating on Apple podcast or Spotify You can also find this show every weekday on the Fandall YouTube page and on Fandall T Plus if your bracket is busted Don't sweat it because Fandall lets you bet on every game of the tournament You're betting on an upset trying to bet on a total anything like that time to go dancing in America's number one sports book Right now new customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets your first five dollar bet wins That's 200 bucks if your first five dollar bet wins you bet on spreads money lines Totals whatever it may be just visit Fandall comm and bet on college hoops until they cut down the nets for good Must be 21 plus and president select states Fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas star casino LLC first online real money wager Only ten dollar first deposit required Bonus issued is now a trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat see terms at sports book Fandall comm gambling problem call 1-800 gambler over the Fandall comm slash RG in Colorado Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, North Carolina and Vermont call 1-800 next step or text next step to 5334 2 in Arizona 1-888-789-7777 Or visit ccpg.org slash shag Connecticut 1-800 9 with an Indiana 1-800-522-4700 visit chaos gambling health.com in Kansas 1-877-770 stop in Louisiana visit md gambling health at Oregon, Maryland 1-800 gambler net in West Virginia 1-800-522 4700 in Wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or call 100 327 5050 For 24 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877 8 hope and why or text open Y in New York And let's begin things here by talking about the women's side of things which begins on Friday night with the two final four games there you said you've been building out numbers for the women's tournament So I know you've done numbers based stuff for a lot of different sports So I'm sure you have the process pretty refined by now What that process look like specifically for women's college basketball? I Think for every sport you have to do what's necessary. You know it in some sense is not There's not a ton of women's college basketball analytics out there for hoop stats does some really nice stuff I've tried to feature their work in my newsletter. I think they do a really good job But you know a lot of their stuff is behind a paywall and and for good reason, you know, they're trying to build a business over there I've been getting more interested in women's college basketball I think there have been a number of exciting matchups over the last couple years that have really caught the interest The supposedly ESPN ratings have been up a hundred percent this year over last year Which is pretty good and I think it's because the games are pretty good and it's pretty good ball so I I did this mostly because I cared and I wanted to have some numbers and I basically applied my ranking algorithm and made some team rankings. This is what I do on the site This is what most of the public rankings on my site that you can check out are based on I take margin of victory in every game and I Adjust for schedule with with my algorithm and so the strength of this is is going to be able to you know Look at women's basketball and see that. Okay. Well, you played in a good conference And so you're gonna get bumped up a little bit this other team didn't so much and and they might get moved down a little bit and You know, it's been a really it's been an interesting tool I'm really looking forward to kind of digging in more Next season when there's more teams to kind of think about right now We have four eight, you know eight when I started messing with this on Monday and it was a matter of scraping together just the score results and having that database and then applying code that I've had around for a while so pretty simple process and Yeah, excited to kind of think about it some more and look at the predictions It's very relatable to be like I enjoyed watching this so I built a model around it That's the reason I have an F1 model is because I was watching drag to survive with my wife and it was like hey, this might be fun to bet on and You know, you kind of want a rooting interest in some of these things and so it's a very relatable experience here You say that was the reason why you did it and like watching the games on Monday They were insanely hyped and then they lived up to it. So I feel like that's why it's got this appeal Where it's not just like okay We know people want this but also like I'm just objectively enjoying it And I kind of want to be more informed as a viewer as I tune in Exactly. I feel the exact same way. I was you got all the headlines on Monday night and for good reason with the matchups and just the rematch of the title game Yukon USC was a better basketball game. It was an incredible basketball game and I like I actually couldn't turn it off I wanted to go to bed, but right Until I finally pulled away I think I think I turned it off for like a minute to go or something like that But it was just really good basketball You kind of women play about six players and it's kind of a problem when three of those players have two fouls in the first half Right, and you know, you kind of have to adjust to that Yeah, I mean it was it was great Yeah, a lot of fun. So let's talk about both those games Starting things off with the first game on Friday night. That is NC State taking on South Carolina South Carolina still undefeated They are an 11 and a half point favorite here and obviously with all the the talk around Caitlyn Clark Paige Beckers juju Watkins, etc Haven't talked a lot about the team that's been the favorite to win for pretty much the entire year So South Carolina 11 and a half point favorite here at what are your numbers saying about this one? Right, so I mean I have South Carolina by about nine and a half. I'm not suggesting going out in bed and NC State and You know second Carolina certainly been the best team. They're undefeated in my numbers They are six points clear of the second best team, which is Iowa. So you know, I Anyway, you put it like this team is is the best in the nation It's a little bit of a surprise I was talking to Aaron bars alive this morning He runs her hoops that's and he made the point that the South Carolina team isn't as good as the one last year Like the one last year was was rated even higher than the one this year They that version of the South Carolina team lost to Iowa in the final four They lost I think four of their top contributors on that team last year. They came into this season They were actually only six in the preseason AP poll still very solid, but they weren't first You know LSU was first and and I think there's a little bit of recency bias there because they were you know, they were They had just won a national championship And actually you I think you con was second, but they were six right? So this is a little bit unexpected that the South Carolina team has done this well Even if it's not quite as good as what the team last year has done So is there a little chink in the armor, I don't know maybe they do shoot almost 40% from three on offense That is very good and possibly unsustainably good So that might be something to to look out for if they can continue to shoot that well But clearly the best team I think is a testament to dawn's daily who has done a great job and really has built powerhouse program We actually talked here in Ann Arbor a couple weeks ago about her Possibly taking the men's basketball job It was never going to happen But it was fun to talk about and I think it just shows you the kind of respect that she demands in the basketball world Whether it's women or men She's done an incredible job with this team fully expect them to win this game And then I guess get a get a little more competition to the file Now you referenced the preseason rankings and you've done a lot of research on the men's side that has shown that Those are predictive when it comes to turning time because it shows talent and obviously It's tough to say hey ed go back and look is this predictive in the women's side too But that's something you care about is that something you You factor in is like a factor in your mind when looking at these games the fact that you know You kind of highly rated coming in south carolina in this game. Maybe not as highly rated there Yeah, uh, yeah for sure. I definitely consider it You know and and I try to say, you know, this might be this might be the jink in the arm Or they're they're probably not as talented as the team that had a year ago Um, so definitely something I consider. I mean, we know the wisdom of crowds works pretty well Like I haven't gone back and checked how well Um, you know that model is done and predicting tournament winners, but my guess is that It would do pretty well Okay, so I just show in some value in NC state but not leaping to take it at least as of right now Let's stop with the second game here, of course This is the big one. It is ucon taking on iowa right now at fangirl sports book iowa Favorit by two and a half. So pretty tight spread here any value sent out to you in this game? Yeah, I like ucon so, uh, I was working on my newsletter last year and I wanted to put something about the you know the women and and the tournament and uh, I I go over and I look at her hoops that and They have you know, I think they had ucon third behind uh, south carolina and then Iowa I was like, oh great, right and you go and look at the markets and It was it was kind of interesting by by the time the newsletter came out on You know, I wrote it on friday and ucon was like 12 to 1 to win and that just seemed off Um, especially since south carolina's on the other side of the bracket So they couldn't meet until the final and then you know south carolina and I guess south carolina moved on so that by the time I wrote by the time the newsletter got published You know, they were up to like 16 or 17 to 1 and I was like, ah, this is fantastic You know, I felt pretty good that they were gonna take care of business against duke and Yeah, so anyways, I bet that I put in the newsletter. I bet it I was pretty excited about it because I thought they were pretty good odds And then monday, so they beat duke, uh, I don't think they look great But they kind of pulled away uh from from that duke team and then monday I started running my own numbers and when when I did that like I was like, oh crap Like, you know, they were there. I think they were sixth Right. And so my string to schedule adjustment said that okay, maybe ucon wasn't as good as You know at least her who stat had those women part of the part of the uh, the markets really liked uh, ucon against usc I think they were a two and a half or three and a half point favorite. So that was good I had, you know, ucon by like a point or something like that And I think part of the story there is just the trajectory of the team You know, they were very highly considered in the preseason. They lost one of the top players Two injury. They've had a bunch of other injuries to that team Most of the losses happened earlier in the season. So, um When I was running the numbers, I kind of ran everything at the end of every month just to check Make sure what was going on and what you've seen is ucon go from the teens up to sixth on monday and now up to fifth So my numbers do like ucon. They do see the strength. Um, they may be underestimating a little bit in the sense that This team might be playing better now than they were a couple months ago Page beckers is definitely the star and we have to remember two years ago. She was a much more Well-regarded name than katlyn clark, right She tore acl wasn't able to play last season has been working her way back this season um And and I and I think she's probably gotten better as she's played more games She's averaging about 21 and a half points per game, which is not super impressive But uh, you know, when you look at our points prop, it's like 26 and a half and that kind of makes sense So with ucon, uh, they I've I've watched some ucon games right in the past right because it's, you know Our yama and you know, do you see kind of you see them in final four in the national championship game? and you From what I remember like they're always big. They're always athletic and they're always well coached and from watching two games of this ucon team like There's there's no difference. They're big. They're athletic and they're well coached um Iowa on the other hand we we all know about katlyn clark. She's amazing um But you know, they're not the best on defense the reports of that lsu game where Both teams were scoring essentially on every single possession Uh, when you look at some of the stuff that her hoops dad is doing, uh, you know, iowa's defense I think is in the 20s Definitely the best offense in the nation So anyways my number makes, uh Iowa one point favorite in this I I do think there's value in ucon I mean, I haven't personally bet it because I do have that future I think I probably will uh, I like ucon plus two and a half. I think this is going to be super tight super amazing game I simply think I think ucon's just good enough on defense You know katlyn clark was able to get a lot of shots off against lsu because they had a five seven guard Trying to guard her and she just shot over her And this made no sense at all She won't katlyn clark won't have the same ease Against ucon because their guards are taller And and I think ucon plays better defense. So I I do like ucon here There's four games on friday and saturday for the semifinals of of these college basketball tournaments. This is by far the best matchup By far. Yeah, so this late game on oh, it starts at 8 30 great. I should maybe get to sleep after that Um, well, it's 9 30 eastern. I got the central time. Oh central. Dang it. Jim I got you messing with you. I got super excited there. Yep. I got your hopes up. Sorry about that But the ucon team is fascinating because we had justin carter who does right for her hoop stats on Before the tournament and he was talking about how they were like the toughest team for him to figure out because They were well rated by her hoop stats. Um, assy peabody. I know had them I think they were two entering the tournament like number two overall Entering the tournament. But what did happen was when they faced good teams, they got crushed the entire regular season So there was this dynamic of the numbers love them But they keep getting destroyed by good teams But then you watch them that usc game and usc was a onesie. They're a good team They look really good there. So I think that it kind of alleviates those concerns about what they've done against high level competition and says, okay This team's legit and I feel like that allows you to have more faith in your numbers And if your numbers say I will buy one I feel like that's got to give you some confidence given that it's possible your numbers may be selling ucon a bit shorty Yeah, I read justin's preview before the the early date and uh, I was I was looking at that and I think a lot of those games happened earlier in the year Right. So they're adjusting to the injury injuries basically I think they're adjusting to who they have and they know they have six players and They're probably not going to run and gun simply because there's not a lot of subs and You know those women are going to play a lot of minutes and they've adjusted to that You know on a per possession basis I mean this team looks legit. I mean they play great basketball All right, Ed likes ucon plus two and a half taking on Iowa for that banger of a game on friday night Let's look over to the men's side here and talk about the first game on saturday night That is going to be a pretty fun one got nc state taking on per due nc state trying to keep that cinderella run going zack edian per due 9 and a half point favorites here ed What are your numbers saying about this game can nc state keep that cinderella run going? So nc state is fascinating because they have uh been on this run But uh, I did some work on upsets, uh, you know, uh a couple years ago And what I found is that when teams have upsets like you're getting some positive variants both on three point offense and three point defense The three point defense is certainly what is happening for nc state here if you go um I think they lost the last five games of the regular season If you look at the start of the uh, the acc tournament They won five straight games to win that another four straight games In the nc double a tournament they're, uh allowing 28.3 percent from three I mean that's like houston level Like defense right and this is just not a team that should sustain that Um, also if you take out the louisville game, which is the first one out of there It goes and louisville made over half their threes that drops 26.2 percent. So 26.2 percent in the last eight games It's it's just it's just unsustainable. Um, just a quick note like, you know, I've been doing a lot of these uh You know what like just to just to kind of estimate what has been going on more recently with either teams or players and I've been trying really hard to like Not not like cherry pick where I start like looking at these numbers So I definitely wanted to say okay, let's start at the beginning of the acc tournament and not just throw out the louisville game Right like I'm trying to say okay, let's look at 10 games because I don't want to bias like where I stop looking at stuff to to get um You know particular numbers that I that I want to pull out so But you know, I think the end of the regular season is a good demarcation point Like the start of conference play is a good good place to start looking at whether a player's stats have changed Um, and you know, I think in general when you're analyzing stuff you want to do that as opposed to say Oh, well, this guy's been great for 12.69 games, right? right And not any good before that right because you're cherry picking a little bit so My uh, my model has this game as produced by 11. I think there's value against Uh, uh against nc state. Um, I thought there was value Uh with duke in the semi-final in the elite eight massively wrong on that. I think there's value for Purdue here Um, I think they do win. I think I think there should be at least a double digit spread. We'll see if it gets there Uh, but uh, I think Purdue does move on unless something crazy happens Now we've talked a lot about three point defense before and how the Having a lower three point percentage against in terms of like actual shots made can be kind of flukey Whereas it's preventing three points being taken. That's a more sticky thing And I feel like for nc state you're looking at a nine game sample there I feel like we can disregard three or we can Downplay three point defense across an entire season. So when it's three point defense across a nine game sample is even smaller I feel like that has to make you feel even better about The idea of regression coming towards this team and that they're not being especially skilled that somehow Making three pointers, you know, it's at three point defense Yeah, I don't think they're particular skilled at three point defense I mean, you know, I mean does that mean Purdue's gonna shoot great? No, uh, Purdue is also like by I think they're if not the best they're definitely one of the best in terms of making three pointers Um, that that has definitely been uh, something that they've been particularly good at. I know at one point They were over 40 percent, which is incredible. You expect a little bit of regression there Um as well. So but you know, I mean even if they hit 38 39 37 percent Um, they should You know, they should be able they should be able to win this game. Uh, this is this is like, you know North Carolina state is is a pretty big Cinderella and uh It should end here Well, Zach Eadie against DJ Burns be fun regardless and it does like Purdue minus nine and a half Second game of the night is Alabama taking on Yukon and Yukon has steamrolled so far So they're fair by 11 and a half in this one Ed. What are you seeing in this one with Yukon being a heavy favorite? Right. My numbers have Yukon by 11 It's just you know what like I wrote before the start of the tournament It's just really hard to poke holes at this Yukon team like they're really good. They're really good on both sides of the ball You look at the four fact four factors on offense shooting rebounding turnovers, you know, preventing turnovers and Um Getting the line like they're good at everything like I think they're top 50 and everything So they're really good on defense. Uh, when you look at Alabama's implied team total, it's, uh, it's 19 percent below their season average So that's how much respect the markets are giving towards Yukon's defense um Look, I mean Yukon's been so dominant, right like it Even if it's the final four or you kind of worry about, you know, possibly a letdown I kind of doubt it. They really have some good players. Donovan Klingon has been amazing. Um I mean, they they just they figured out a way to play really well Dan Hurley's done a great job there Alabama is a good team on offense. They shoot a lot of threes and so there's there's There's there's certainly a path for them to to pull this upset But they are not very strong on on defense and this has definitely been the knock on them And it it's somewhat hilarious that Nate Oates had the best team in college basketball a year ago Had top mba prospect Brandon Miller That was a team that was really good on the defensive side of the ball and they've losing the round of 32 And this year you come into the tournament. Oh, damn. It doesn't play any defense And here they are in the final four, right Crazy, yeah, I mean, I I don't really have an opinion on the spread. I mean, um I wouldn't necessarily bet the spread but uh, but I think Yukon moves on and uh, hopefully we get a Yukon Purdue final that I think should be pretty entertaining With uh, Donovan Klingon versus Zach Edie That'll be good If we do get that match up fangirl sportsbook does have hypothetical lines posted that one would be Yukon by five and a half that they were to face Purdue And I don't know if you got a chance to look at these ed But any thoughts are in the hypothetical lines posted over fangirl sportsbook Yeah, I'd make it about four Yukon minus four. I I have zero interest in betting against Yukon. Yeah zero Oh my god 15 and a half Yeah And she said alabama's four and a half. There we go. It's uh, it's a tight one Yeah, I mean dude if al if alabama You know, I mean it was kind of interesting watching that bracket, right like because alabama was Not favored. I mean they weren't favored to be UNC in the in the sweet 16, right? Right They they they win that game and then they're favored against Clemson to make a final four and then they got the job done so basketball is funny and uh You know, I mean, I have a lot of respect for nato. So I think he's doing a great job down there You know, you you don't think of alabama as basketball school by any stretch, but he He builds competitive teams every year and this is this year is the is the best example of that yet Yeah, absolutely. Okay. So Ed is liking on the women's side Yukon plus two and a half taking on iowa and then the men's side Purdue minus nine and a half For their matchup with nc state That's all that we have here for today on covering the spread But Ed, you've been busy over the power bank. Hopefully a break for you coming up soon What's going on for you at the power bank and on the football analytic show? I had a great conversation with erin bar bars lie He is the founder of her hoop stats. We talked about the women's final four We actually have more time talking about a story. Uh, he's mit grad stanford grad He worked for the philadelphia 76ers. He was the director of analytics there Worked for a number of different nba teams. So we talked about that and then we talked about a lot of other things as well So that was a great conversation It is up at the football analytics show podcast and then i'm writing my newsletter I'll have another five no good saturday. Uh, we're if you're looking to get some action down on the weekend That is a free resource for you. It gives you a chance to check out some of my work So you can check that out at the power rank dot com Did you overlap with erin at stanford at all or no? I think maybe a year. He was there before me Okay, so they didn't know each other there. Yeah, that's cool. We'll check that out on the football analytics show Sign up for the newsletter over at the power rank dot com as well and find ed on twitter at the power rank I'm on twitter at jim sanis. You can also follow fandor research on twitter at fandor research tomorrow. We're talking some baseball. We're talking Epl, uh, we're gonna talk some NASCAR as well And of course, uh, talk about some the national championship on monday So make sure subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to eat your bets across tonight and enjoy the final four this weekend This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network