 It's time for the Lawn Jean Chronoscope, a television journal of the important issues of the hour brought to you every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, a presentation of the Lawn Jean Wittner Watch Company, maker of Lawn Jean, the world's most honored watch, and Wittner, distinguished companion to the world-honored Lawn Jean. Good evening. This is Frank Knight. May I introduce our co-editors for this edition of the Lawn Jean Chronoscope? From the CBS television news staff, Larry LaSere and Winston Bridette. Our distinguished guest for this evening is the Honorable Walter Williams, under Secretary of Commerce. Mr. Williams, you've been a teacher, a successful businessman, the chairman for the Committee of Economic Development, and now under Secretary of Commerce. What do you think is the nation's economic health on this first day of the new year, sir? Well, I wonder if, Larry, before we consider the condition of the economic health of the country today, if it wouldn't be worthwhile for it to go back a little while and see where we have been on this economic road. If we, it may help you get perspective. If you remember, like in 1939, the war broke out in Europe. That caused us to become active here. Then, of course, as France was about to fall in Europe, we had a very exciting time of building up our own defenses. Then came our own participation in the war itself. Then, following that, after the war was over, we had all this pent-up accumulation of shortages together with a lot of money that had been made by our wage earners, and so we had an active period of time then. Then following that, we had the Korean War. The result is that from 1939 to 1953, we've had 13 or 14 years of rather continuous boom times. Now, that gives you an idea of where we have been, and I think perhaps that may help to give us a starting point as we consider where we are now and where we're going to go from here. Mr. Williams, the Korean armistice is now a feta complete and accomplished fact. Where do you think the nation's economy is right now? Well, I think as we take a look at the conditions that prevail today, we might, there again, think in terms of short-range and long-range. If we think in terms of long-range, it's easier because I think when we think in terms of the population growth of our country, we're gaining at the rate of about 28 million people in per decade, and think of the buying requirements that all those people mean, the houses, the clothes, and the food and everything else, that stimulates the imagination as to the kind of an economy we're going to have. And then in terms of our technological development, I think that few Americans really appreciate the tremendous gains that are taking place technologically. I have in my hand here a little gadget which I asked Dr. Aston, who is the head of the National Bureau of Standards down in Washington, part of our Department of Commerce the other day, what that little gadget would mean economically to our country, let's say over the next 10 years. And he said billions of dollars. Now I've got time to go into that tonight, but the point is this is what is called a wafer stack, sometimes referred to as ticker toy. And it's a shortcut in terms of electronic development which will have the effect of cutting costs and speeding up production. Now then, when we think in terms of technological development and our population gains, I think nobody can come to any other conclusion, but that over the long-range period we've got a tremendous gain in store for us and our standard of living for our American people is going to be higher and higher a year by year. Well, Mr. Williams, what about the short-range? It's often harder to predict the short-range, but what's the economic outlook for this year, 1954? Yeah, first. Now then, short-range, I think we would have to, as we try objectively, to see what has happened in the last few months. Then we get some forecast perhaps as to what may be expected. There are some of the barometers that have looked not so good. I think that perhaps one of the best ways to analyze the condition that we've been passing through is to look back about a year. Beginning the early part of this year, we found ourselves with inventories constantly going up at an accelerating rate. But at the same time, we found sales rather steadily going down. That has gone on for a good part of this year. Well, as long as you have that kind of a gap developing, of course, you are bound to have a certain amount of readjustment. Now, the encouraging thing about that is that within the last two months, October and November, to be precise, we found sales taking a turn upward. And we found this inventory accumulation turning downward. And I think that all of us who are interested in these matters are going to watch what happens with respect to the Christmas sales, with a great deal of interest, because that will have a great deal of bearing, I think, on what the next few months are going to be. Mr. Williams, do you think then that 1954 is going to be a period of readjustment or adjustment? I think we have already had readjustment. One of the barometers which I think is particularly interesting is the barometer known as the length of the work week. Now actually, the length of the work week has been coming down for almost a solid 12 months. During the 48-49 adjustment period, it came down for a period of 12 months before it turned back up again. Now, this time it began last December, actually, and has been going down steadily almost ever since. Some have said, well, that's a matter of changing from an over time economy to a normal time economy. Now, it's true it puts less money in the pockets of our workers, but it also is true that it cuts costs, because the first thing that an employer does when there's a little slackening is to cut out over time. That means the cost of producing is merchandise. Mr. Williams, how do you account for the fact that the cost of living index is creeping up and yet there has been a fall in farm food prices? Well, I want to keep this on a nonpartisan basis if I can, but when you ask about this price curve, it necessitates taking a look at conditions which prevailed before January 20th and conditions which have prevailed since January 20th. Now, actually, there were about $81 billion worth of, shall we say, COD items, which had been committed for by Congresses one, two, and three years back, going out of the Korean incident for the purchase of airplanes and aircraft carriers and tanks and all the rest of it. But at the time that Congress made those commitments, no appropriations were made, and those appropriations have to be made and are being made now as those items become completed and they're laid on our doorstep as COD items for payment. For now then, that $81 billion, the two peak years for payout are in 1954 and 1955. And until we absorb those items, we have had to pump in deficit financing and we're still having deficit financing. Those factors all have to do with the price level. But I think the particularly significant thing is, and it's a point I'd like to drive home with emphasis, is that as a result of the teamwork by Congress on the one hand and the administration, 13 billions of dollars of what they call budget expenditure requests were cut from the request level of the preceding administration. Now then, as you cut those things, those expenditures down, and we finally get to the point where we are having more nearly a balanced budget, and in terms, in turn, we are having monetary policies and debt management policies which are being pursued by the present administration, then you will have the price level come under control, and it is true that while it is still inching up slightly, the main reason for that is that rentals, medical services, and transportation items have lagged. Actually, food prices, the index of food prices is less than it was a year ago. What about the farmers this year, Mr. Williams, what is their prospect economic outlook? If you will look at the chart for farmers prices, you will find that his prices began to drop. He hit the peak in about November or December of 1951. That's two and a half, three years ago. Now, during this year, there has still been a drop, but the drop has only been two or three percent, and there was about an 18 percent drop in the two years prior. Now, those prices seem to have pretty well leveled up. So, the purchasing power of the farmer, I think, may pretty reasonably be expected to be pretty stable this coming year. On top of that, as you know, the farmer, the Agriculture Advisory Commission is bringing into its report, and I'm dead sure that the recommendations of that committee, no doubt most of which will be enacted into law by Congress, will mean stability and considerable benefit for the farming. What about the possibilities of a recession in 1954 and the latter part of it? Why do you say the latter part of it? Because you said we're still pumping out a lot of money into the economy from previous administration. Well, let's get this straight. It isn't just a matter of what government does. It's a matter of what a lot of the rest of us do. Now, actually, it is interesting to note that, and I think one of the most encouraging things is that plant and equipment investment, which ran at a high level during 1953, is projected for this coming year now, 1954, at an actual, for the first quarter. The figure of our member is 27.96 billions of dollars, 27.96, practically 28 billions of dollars. That is less than the third quarter was, but it's actually considerably higher than it was the first quarter of a year ago. Now, if businessmen and those who have to do with the controlling of plant and equipment investment keep that up, that has nothing to do with government, you see. Then that makes a great contribution towards keeping our economy rolling. Well, as a final question, Mr. Williams, as Undersecretary of Commerce, can you give any advice to the average citizen on how to keep his own economic situation healthy in 1954? Well, I think that the individual has perhaps more of an opportunity to contribute to the stability of the economy than maybe he realizes. Because in our kind of an economy where the individual doesn't have to work from dawn to dark just barely to keep a certain amount of food in his stomach, but he has the power of discretionary spending, if he keeps that consumer spigot running, then the retailer, the wholesaler, the jobber right back to the factory, everybody's kept busy. And in that way he contributes very much towards helping to keep our economy sound. Well, thank you very much, Mr. Williams. It's been a pleasure to have you here tonight. The opinions you've heard our speakers express tonight have been entirely their own. The editorial board for this edition of the Lone Gene Chronoscope was Larry LeSir and Winston Burdette. Our distinguished guest was the Honorable Walter Williams, Undersecretary of Commerce. Did you follow any of the bold games on television today? Now if so, you may be interested to know that this year, as for years past, all of the major post-season football championship games, the Rose Bowl, the Rice Bowl, the Orange Bowl, and all the others were officially timed by Lone Gene Watches, like this high-precision Lone Gene Chronograph. You might ask why? Why is Lone Gene so generally used for official timing in championship sports? Now the answer is the great accuracy and the complete dependability which is inbuilt into every Lone Gene Watch. And just so, all Lone Gene Watches are engineered and manufactured to provide the greater accuracy and longer life for which Lone Gene Watches are world-famous. So when next you need a watch, either for yourself or as an important gift, remember these facts. And remember, too, that you may buy and own or proudly give a Lone Gene Watch for as little as 7150. Lone Gene, the world's most honored watch, the world's most honored gift, premier product of the Lone Gene Witner Watch Company since 1866, maker of watches of the highest character. We invite you to join us every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday evening at this same time for the Lone Gene Chronoscope, a television journal of the important issues of the hour, broadcast on behalf of Lone Gene, the world's most honored watch, and Witner, distinguished companion to the world-honored Lone Gene. This is Frank Knight reminding you that Lone Gene and Witner Watches are sold and service from coast to coast by more than 4,000 leading jewelers who proudly display this emblem, Agency for Lone Gene Witner Watches. This is the CBS Television Network.