 Good morning and welcome to the week ahead video with me at dinner madam Today's date is Friday the 3rd of January 2020 and the time has just gone 1120 GMT And I'm looking ahead to next week, which is Monday the 6th of the Friday the 10th of January Before we talk about the big events of next week Let's first talk about the events of the last few days. That's the first few days of the new trading year So we had a big sell-off in European equity markets this morning We're also seeing a pointing and lower start for the US markets as well on the back of the news from overnight that air strikes carried out by the United States have assassinated or killed a senior Iranian military officer in Iraq And this is really upset the other cart in terms of tensions in the Middle East. We've seen the price of all Shoot higher. We've seen global equities Fall on the back of it like some of the old classics Things like the quality plays such as gold is doing well as is the Japanese. Yes The traders are clearly very decisively in risk of mode But this comes personal on the blue But second of all on the back of a fairly positive start to the year 2020 Yesterday was the first trading day of the new of the new trading year and also the trading decade What we saw what we saw a decent move higher in your in Asian European and US markets And that was driven by the up to continued optimism in relation to US China But also we've heard from the China Central Bank who stated that early next week They're going to lower the reserve requirement ratio and this probably going to be a massive Impact on lending in China bonuses, but as it shows the Chinese authorities are there to assist the economy so The news in the last In the last 12 hours of 18 hours about the US airstrikes in Iraq has really given traders an excuse to actually get out Get out of equities. They were coming from a fairly lofty position to begin with And now we're seeing very much cash being being funneled out of stocks and into the Japanese yen Gold and also all of those that had a major move to the upside just over fears that there's going to be some sort of retaliation from Iran where that may or may not happen that could lead to disruption in the kind of global energy market or Logistics in that part of the world as we have seen a major move to the upside in the oil market Now what I do is I think a quick look at how markets have been fairing the major year Major global stock markets take a look at the pound as well, and then I run through the big events of next week So as you can see here tickets at the wider view We've seen a decent move to the upside in the first hundred between Early October running it to the end of last year at the back end of December. We saw the first hundred hit a level last seen Since July so it's in a fairly polished polished run We have seen a bit of a move to the downside Today in line of what's going on with Iran So in the near term if we do see any further downward pressure You might head back to this old here seven thousand four to the seventy or perhaps even down to kind of seven thousand four hundred but you know, we really would need to see a major kind of Wrist between the US and Iran before we have you know, we have a prolonged sustained sell-off in this bit of competition It'd be something that kind of lasts for a number of days I should that be the case we might see the wider upper trend to continue because it's been a place for some time now I should be seeing a scenario where the market Cams calms down and we see the market pushing higher We could really get retesting the late July high now just north of seven thousand seven hundred and thirty I should we go beyond that we could be looking at our economy this old here in around seven thousand just shy of seven thousand eight hundred But if you do have a fairly size move to the downside We could see the the rocket head back down towards this red line here the truth a moving average and that comes to play at seventy three forty five I Take a look what's going over and over in Germany, you know keep mind In mid-December in December we saw the German market hit it twenty three months higher So the stocks the German market wasn't very lofty position. We've seen quite an aggressive move to the downside today Which is and this candle here looks to be very much very much a very very bearish candle We could be looking at a very bearish engulfing here But keep mind despite the fact we've had a large sell-off We're still managed to hold above this blue line here the fifth any moving average and that comes to play at Thirteen thousand one hundred forty so if you could hold above that as a possibility that the wider upper trained upper trend Might be sustained and should that be the case And if you look to retest the recent highs and then go beyond that We could be looked potentially looking at heading up towards this area here at thirteen thousand six hundred But if you do if contentions between the US and around continued to kind of rumble on We could see further pressure take us back below the fifth removing average And should that be the case? We could head down towards the kind of psychological important 13,000 mark And if you go below that we could head back down toward this area here in around 12,900 I take a look what's going on with the S&P 500 You know keep mind be at the S&P 500 yesterday and yet another all-time high and today's candle is quite bearish We could look in a very engulfing you Things finish up on today's trading session So if we do manage to get a press on lower from here in the near term We could be lucky heading back down towards 3,200 as big you know big psychological number and we go below that we could be like me heading back down towards this is old here in around 3,400 and 80 but you know I said the wider trend has been to the upside. So should we kind of retest should we retake the recent high in around 3,261 we could then be looking at You know continuing on the kind of wider of a trend of 3,270 80 90 so one and so forth I'll also take a look at what's going on at the British Pound We've had a seen a rebound in the US dollar in the last couple of days keep mind the back end of back into December The dollar index was basically at a five month low So we've seen a bit of a rebound in the US dollar and with that we've seen downward pressure in the British Pound So starting to get a terrific a terrific run between September in true December But then since then we obviously had a fairly sizable Correction changes that were happening to your lock-in some profits that were made on the British Pound first US dollar We can see here that there they're about the manage to kind of rocket held above kind of 129 It's a bit below the fifth of the moving average, but we're still above that metric now I know we've seen we've got a couple of negative days But this could potentially just be a short-term pullback given that we've had a rally in late December So the kind of wider upper trend does continue and we take out the racing high in at 130 to one spot 32 84 We can have been looking at you towards kind of 135 zone It's only really if you're going to take out get this zone here of a 50 moving average Which comes to play at one spot 29 84 down to one spot 29 It's only really going to have a size break below 129 could then we begin to get worried And should that be the case we could really get a back down toward this red line here Which is the tour the moving average and that comes to play in one spot 2690 Now in terms of the big events to keep I afford next week Early already on next week We have the the final reading of flash services PMI from Spain Italy France Germany the UK and the US On Tuesday very next early next week on the 7th. We have the the Eurozone CPI reading that's going to be close close you watch seeing as demand in the Eurozone has been fairly weak recently Any sign of things picking up will be welcomed by the ECB We have first quarter figures from Walgreens boots Alliance on Friday on Friday This is the 10th. We have the all-important US non-farm payroll figures Keep in mind last month's numbers was very impressive report the unemployment rate fell back to a 50 year low The headline figure come to be topped expectations and earnings were decent our summer I'm respecting a fairly good numbers from this report as well I'm respecting the headline figure to be a similar region of 166,000 the unemployment rate is tip the whole study at 3.5% and wages are expected to be 3.1% So keep an eye for non-farm payroll support Speaking of which it is worth remembering noting a my colleague a micro fuses would be calling a live webinar event Next week for non-farm payrolls. If you go to insights and go to web webinars and events You'll find this the sign up page right here that begins at 1315 GMT next week And lastly next week. We also have the Canadian jobs support So keep an eye for what's going on over in Canada too because Canadian numbers often get overlooked By the by the US numbers. Well, that's all for me this week. Thank you very much