 Okay, hello everybody. I'm assuming you can still see the screen and see myself and hear me. If all that's working okay, I think it should be, then we can proceed. If there are any errors that you're seeing here, obviously let me know and I'll rectify them. So if we just shoot through this risk warning, we can get on with the webinar. Any questions at all? Just feel free to send me a message through the chat or the Q&A window. Actually, I'll bring up that Q&A window. Okay, well, I had quite a big sell-off last week, not so much in the UK 100, one of the better performing indices globally actually, but definitely in Europe and we've seen a bit of a snapback today. Now, there isn't really anything in the way of economic data today. There is fairly sparse amounts of data for the majority of the week. We do have German ZDW tomorrow, so that could be one of the big drivers in terms of pushing the euro around. We're attempting to put a base into the euro at the moment and could also be a driver of further gains in the Germany 30. If we do pull up the Germany 30, well, we're talking about this. This is a four-hour chart, but if we go to the daily chart, so this is what we're looking at here. We broke this rising trend line. I'd highlighted this inside day. We had a breakthrough there and then just a couple of days of falling off a cliff and we found some support, not altogether unsurprisingly, around as March 26th low. The question now is, are we done with this correction? Are we maintaining inside the range? Maybe there'll be some selling opportunities towards the top of the range again, but are we going to get up there? There was a couple of catalysts at the end of last week. One was a change in regulations in China over the Chinese equity trading and I guess the other big one really was just concerns that the Greece are just getting closer and closer to a default. The Greek concern is an ongoing one and we're going to fluctuate between less and more concern and it's difficult to pivot your trades around that. You've got to be aware of some of the events going on. The big one for this week is on Friday with the Eurogroup meeting. The German finance minister has essentially already said that he doesn't expect any resolution there, so that would certainly be a positive surprise if there was, but he's probably saying that for good reason. My feeling is that this sell-off last week was more, even though it had some specific triggers, I would say it was more of a sort of post-ECB profit-taking. There was a lot of buying into that meeting and it didn't really produce anything particularly spectacular. Excuse me, I'm just going to phone call here. For that reason, I think we're getting some sell-off here. Off the back of that, it's hard to tell whether this is going to be the end. For me, a pivotal point is if we do scroll down to this four-hour chart, which I originally had it on, this was kind of the first leg lower. We had a bit of a kind of consolidation moved higher briefly before dropping off a cliff again, and that's just around this kind of pivotal 12k round number. So I think there's a good chart that we can push back up to 12,000, but that will be a kind of decision point. It does correspond with the moving average here on the shorter-term chart. So I think if we push beyond this peak, I don't know if it's a daily peak or not, but it's basically in and around this 12, 15, 12, 20-type area. Above there, we're probably looking good to test the top of the range again into 12, 300. But for me, this is going to be an interesting one from the sort of breakdown area here up to the high. We'll have to see what markets do in that vicinity. Any signs to sort of false break above and then closing below or just kind of rolling over with some kind of chart pattern or indicator rolling over. That could be a sign that we've got another leg to go on the downside. We did mention the UK 100 being one of the better performing indices. I think part of that has been that interest rates look like they're going to stay low for quite a while in the UK. And we'll have some more insight on that on Wednesday when we have the Bank of England minutes. The embassy minutes are probably going to remain 9-0. The data hasn't massively shifted from the times at which they were voting 7-2 and those two dissenters pulled back. Probably not enough really to imply that they should be voting for a rate hike again. So that would indicate that probably we're looking well past, obviously at this point, well past the election and could well be 2016 by the time we see a rate hike in the UK. So that's generally a good thing for equity markets and I think that's part of why we should find some support at this weekly demand area. So if you just see how I've drawn that, it's basically where we broke out big time about this weekly peak. There's a chance we could come down to test it and if we see more specifically on the daily chart, at the top of this demand area is the 50% retracement and then this rising trend line which did get broken here. So obviously there's going to be different ways of drawing it. You could lower it to draw through that peak but if we keep it around where it is, we see a pretty sharp drop down to 6-8-50. That's going to be a right about this 61.8% retracement and this rising trend line. So we may not even get down there but a couple of levels to be aware of should we get down there. Now I highlighted in a brief chart highlight video this particular pattern here and this is just something to be, we had a rising trend line and similar to what happened here really is you get a push above the trend line. A few people will be buying on the breakout of the high which can often work, sometimes it just doesn't and you get a false breakout. Here it can find that it wasn't just a high but it was also a rising trend line and so then we've got this shooting star reversal pattern and so a couple of indicators together implying that we're in for a pullback and then we've got a pretty similar pattern here where we pushed above and then with quite a long wick and then close below the trend line again and I did highlight in that video and then we've got to sell off the next day. That in combination with this DRSI not being able to make a new eye whereas obviously the price did. Again, confluence of a few different signs that the market's getting a bit overdone but we're still above these moving averages so you just have to be, if you are going against this daily trend you just have to be aware that probably your profit targets need to be a little shorter because you're going with the major trend and you're expecting new eyes to be made. We covered German and UK indices assuming everything's all technically fine but I've not heard any word otherwise. Let's switch over to US markets. Minimal US data this week. It's been sort of Chinese data in a way that's been driving US markets along with earnings data obviously and we've got a pretty huge week of earnings so that could be pretty significant. The Apple Watch released on Friday. Sorry, some numbers on how many have been sold released on Friday and durable goods data on Friday. Before that it may be China, HSBC, Flash, PMI, a manufacturing PMI. On Thursday there could be a driver and again the Euro group and that sort of general Greek theme could play into US markets but I think probably before then it could be the performance of some of the industrial giants particularly those internationally exposed with the US dollar and the performance of energy related stocks which I don't think many are being reported this week could be the drivers of markets with minimal economic data. Just looking at this, it's a similar picture in a way to the other charts and then we had that big sell off particularly. In the US markets it wasn't really a week of selling. It was really just Friday where we just fell off the cliff and the official Dow Jones goes down about 250 points which was quite a big sell off and so I think here the test could be again just the sort of breakdown area but it had this in itself it's quite a significant pattern. I'm not a gigantic fan of stop orders in terms of entering the market but that's certainly a trading strategy here where you have two equal lows and then you're looking for a breakthrough and if you had had a sell stop down here obviously selling it down and maybe taking profit at these at here doing alright. Obviously having come that far trying the same strategy again at these lows would have not yielded such good results and you closed higher. So to be cognizant as to where we are this had the support of a declining channel. So again this will probably be kind of key areas to look at this about 18,020 and then we could be in for a retest at the bottom of this downslaping channel or the sort of 17,600 type area which is where the market has been holding above over the last couple of tests. Okay I'm hearing the battery light in my headpiece so I'm going to switch to the other receiver and head this technical problem off before it becomes a natural problem. Okay so you should all be hearing me on the handset if you can't then obviously let me know. So I think we've covered broadly covered equities here let's switch to FX. I'll start briefly with this is something I'll highlight as a couple of times this is one of the less frequently traded pairs but something to be aware of and I think it fits in line with a sort of general question of the US dollar and where we currently are. Okay thanks for the confirmation apparently I'm still being heard that's good. So here this is a weekly chart so a longer term prospect but we've seen basically a double bottom now on the top of that false breakouts this was a good example here where we pushed higher but didn't close the week above that that key technical level. So you've had two lows there you've break down two lows pretty much formed here and then this we're bumping up this level a bunch of times false break but last week we closed above. Now we had a big old week last week now we could just push straight higher from here but there's charts of a little bit of a pullback so that's what I've done here is I've basically drawn the Fibonacci on this weekly candlestick after this breakout from this double bottom pattern and see if there is a fate if the pattern does fail which of course it's entirely possible it can then at least maybe we've got a lower risk entry somewhere within this candlestick. So here's a shooting star type pattern at the top here we're getting a little bit of a sell off today in the New Zealand dollar and so this is something I was looking at maybe the breakout from this candle that would be the 61.8% retracement you see the low from this candle happens to be the 50% and you can see this big area that we were looking at which is basically 76 but actually more specifically like 76-20 or was it 30? Yeah about 20 that would be the 38.2 so that's actually the most important level but it's also the shallowest retracement and then obviously this I would argue is perhaps if we get down there it's significant but just less likelihood of getting down there but should we do you know you're taking less risk potentially if you've got a stop-loss below the lows the only reason I sort of talk about the stop-loss below the lows is because if we do break down there then it would be suggestive of more of a downtrend and typically you don't want to be buying within a downtrend and depending on how you're viewing this pattern technically the pattern could be okay until the bottom again for maybe a triple bottom but I would say through that low negates really the pattern just the breakout really being a true one so I just have something to look out for there on the New Zealand dollar and another big one which again less frequently traded is a dollar CAD this has been a pretty big support level for quite a while now but really for the bulk of this year this 2350s held up and we broke through it on Wednesday got a follow-through Thursday little pop on Friday and that's getting followed through a bit so with the idea of support becomes resistance this is an area to look at these lows here could get up to there again but I would say this 2350 is kind of the big one that we saw the breakdown through it's going to depend a lot we're talking about the Canadian dollar it's going to depend a lot on the price of oil because you'll notice that we'll look at it in a minute but the break out of the trading range in oil higher is corresponding to this break in the Canadian dollar higher i.e. the US dollar lower because of Canada's energy exports the Canadian economy is pretty reliant on oil so higher oil prices are typically good for Canada now looking at the euro now we're basically in a trading range I mean this is kind of pretty tricky trading anywhere other than just at the edge of the range now you can see that we did find some support at the 106 round number and we had a little more of kind of bullish and golfing pattern here and that's been enough to push us up to the 21 day moving average and then we're just getting a sell-off at the average no particular other technical cause I would say and this euro sell-off today I mean again, Greece is a big concern but I think maybe the big one will be ZDW tomorrow that could be a cause for us to push up towards the top of the range should that come in better as expected and we've also got the EU flash PMIs this week so they've generally been doing a bit better recently so if we're seeing a continuation in this improvement in the eurozone economy then I think that should be good for the euro even though DCB basically said they wouldn't be finishing the program early I think everyone sort of secretly knows that there's a good chance they could end the program early should inflation get back to target and should the economy be looking a lot stronger it doesn't look that likely at this point but still it's something to be aware of and if data gets better there's less and that's reason to be shorting the euro move over to cable we do have UK retail sales on Thursday and again obviously the MPC minutes now this has been a sort of pretty kind of tricky market to trade as well because we had this break low and we did actually get a modest close to this previous low but then a kind of long wick and then a big old bullish candle taking its right higher back into the range again and we've gone through right to the top and we've got a false breakout at the top above 150 and now we're trading lower below this shooting style pattern so it's sort of looking like a false breakout and I move back into the range but if you do flip back to the weekly chart you can see this is quite a strong looking candle it is strictly speaking a bullish and golfing candle although the prior week was massive so you could argue that's impressive that it engulfed what was already quite a large week previously but it only just kind of pipped it at the top so again if you're sort of viewing this as your sort of main trading catalyst this bullish and golfing candlestick for potential counter-trend trade then you'd be looking at again that weekly candlestick and some potential areas down here so here you can see the fib levels and that's 61.8% retracement fits alongside this low which doesn't look so prominent on the 4-hour chart but you can see on the daily chart it's pretty big all these closes and opens and closes here and then really these three candlesticks here proved to be quite a good level so a dip down to there we'll have to again it's in the middle of the range so having an order there would get you the best entry but it would be risky because there is a chance that we just push straight to the bottom of the range again but you know watching how we technically set up in terms of indicators and candle patterns I think is worthwhile in around this one sort of 47-50 tub area I'll cover dollar yen quickly but really there's not much to be said it's in this same range and it's broken this rising trendline for what it's worth and this was quite an important level in terms of the number of touches it got and in amongst this range round numbers are proving quite prominent so if this break lower follows through down to 117 I think that could be more like 117-20 that could be where it's based it out again excuse me let's just have a look at commodities copper maybe not one of the most common ones they went dwindle too long but we're getting a pretty hefty sell off here and you can see this is kind of one of those setups to be aware of because we had a big reversal on that day and it's basically made it to the top of that candle and sold off and if we stay where we are quite a big bullish engulfing candle stick for the day so on the opposite end there's a similar pattern down here which is a hammer rather than this shooting star here so should the price get down to this level be aware of potentially a similar reaction there is this rising trendline two touches and price moved above it up here so not proving actually technically viable valid just yet but perhaps this RSI support that's hit sort of one, two, three, fourish times in combination with that trendline could prove enough but in the always good to check the larger timeframes this weekly candle stick here is part of why there's so many people keen to select this previous peak because that was our weekly supply zone and sold off pretty hard from there so this is quite significant low but it may even need a push right down to this low again that we just highlighted and a break of that rising trendline could similar a change in trend for copper oil has been as I mentioned previously so this is the pattern that I've had in place for a while and I first started talking about it at the breakout point here and I had basically the top of this supply area as the potential objective of this wedge so I think this is valid the fact that it connects these two here but being a bit more conservative about the height of the pattern just sort of using these last three or four rather than these lows over here and then just using the base of the wedge here using that as the height and then projecting that here tells me we could get up to about 58, 50 if you're talking sort of round numbers but we're getting a bit of a dip here and so number one is the area that we've broken out from the 54 in WTI was the big one that we broke above last week and that had been capping the trading range below that we have the peak that didn't quite get to 54 basically at 53 so there's 54 to 53 if you've been aggressive but I think if that gives way I mean if you think is yes we're seeing a breakout but if we just remind ourselves of the extent of the trend here it's going to take more than just a break of 54 to really alter people's sentiment on oil most people are still pretty bearish on oil and so if you get a pop up to 57 as we did you can see right on the round number of 57 people just had orders in there to sell and it may take the defense of these lows here it's better seen on the daily actually basically it's sort of higher high higher low, higher high, higher low and so rather than you know so far it's kind of been the highs that have been working I think maybe the high possibly wouldn't work this time and it may even take just because a lot of people will be looking at 54 that we broke from and expecting immediate bounce could happen of course but I think a lot of people could get flushed out with a move down towards 50 and if 50 holds again then maybe pushing up to the 58 we're coming into the end of the session here if you did have any questions definitely feel free to fire them through you can always extend it beyond the recording time now yep just have a look at Brent now this is perhaps a bit more telling now I've had this conveniently written driven this on here this is based on these levels over here I've had this on my chart for pretty much stints this set off you can see yes we broke 62 which was the big one in Brent but we didn't get too much higher and now we're coming off again you can see just how that level has been drawn it's basically just on there that's kind of where we broke down after that little pull higher that's where we broke down again and we've reacted from the top of it I think it was a bit of a paradigm shift the fact that we were able to get through these levels but again I think there's still a lot of people in there calling for 40 even gets as low as 20 dollar oil in Brents WTI so there are going to be some people looking at this as a nice bounce to sell off and we could get a move back down to 54 again before a push back up perhaps up to this the 72 level and this you know you will notice at the top of the supply area where we've got this bounce back also corresponds to the 38.2% level um Phil you're asking about um API you're talking about the um the CPI in Australia or the minutes from Australia well yeah I mean API has given a bit of a sort of pre-curse to the the Wednesday stats in terms of the inventories data but um that could be part of why we're we're seeing this trepidation at the peaks here is that there's a good chance that that was just a one off in the inventories and the API may call what's coming on Wednesday which is just another build up in US stocks really hard to tell I think there probably has been a slight shift in momentum in terms of US oil production the number of rigs has been seriously cut down and it's only a matter of time until that cutting the number of rigs feeds through to lower production but quite when that happens whether last week was just a sort of one off um it's entirely plausible that it was because we have seen numbers referring to the inventories data on Wednesday we've seen numbers around 5 million for a while um and so there's been 5 millions and then it's 10 million again so I would not be surprised if we saw API data on Tuesday and then the inventories on Wednesday indicating that there's just been another build up again and that would be the fundamental justification for selling back into the trading range and basically leading to a false breakout higher and maybe a false breakout lower in dollar CAD but oh yeah obviously pretty difficult to forecast um okay so did I look at gold? I did look at gold so I hope that's um I just saw that question on gold um so I think that's about us covered for this week um yes summary for the Euro we've got the PMIs and the ZEW tomorrow and then the one thing I didn't mention actually is the IFO, German IFO on Friday and then big culminate the week is we got durable goods in the US as long as the as well as the Euro group um potentially a big event but probably just nothing going to happen and um you know maybe more of the erection to the Euro group stuff will be come Monday when market's fully able to digest it uh thanks for tuning in and um I'll see you at uh see you at next week's webinar, thanks a lot