 The following is a presentation of TFNN trading hour with your host David White Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-445-1044 Now David White And welcome all to another exciting edition of the power trading hour. That's what it is. Yeah, that's what it is. And of course I'm your friendly and happy and squeezibly soft host who always comes to you at this time. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. And what do we have? Well, we're off 22-23 points on the S&P cash. We got down to 27-22 earlier in the morning. A lot of people ran to get out of positions and options, which made us bounce by about, I'm going to say 14 points or so. Maybe 12 points. Since then we've retreated from down about minus 11 to down about 24. We're a little higher than that. We've been playing around in this range. There is no volume up. There is no volume down. Someone is controlling the horizontal. They're controlling the vertical. They control it all. You know that show. Let me know the reference. You can email me at pat at tfnn.com. So we don't have a lot. Again, a little bit of a pullback on the dollar today, but still holding that 97 level, which it broke out from yesterday. Oil, of course, was down a great deal more up a little bit. The Baker Hughes numbers were out. This is when I think you can make a little extra money in the market if you know a little bit about it for oil. And that is that we're going from the winter to summer formulations where pretty much over the next two or three weeks. And a lot of people will look at those numbers and other numbers and even a tightening market and think, aha, the next bull move for the for crude is on. Well, the truth of the matter is, is they stock a little extra oil up. They stock a little bit extra gasoline to sell, but it is got kind of a bullish bearish for a bullish bias for a few weeks. As that as they turn off the refineries, do a lot of the maintenance, change the formulation and get it back on track. And sometimes they leave it off a few extra days to get the price going up. But for the most part, that falls apart fairly quickly by the first of May. So there's a little bit of organic reasons for the market to be just a little firmer. There certainly isn't a lot. Now, when you look at the rig count, you'll see that they're way down. Well, if you can't pump the oil to a refinery, then there is that it's probably a good time to shut your oil rig down. Do all the big maintenance that you need to do. Let people take vacations that can and then come back on in a couple of weeks, which is generally what happens. So you'll probably see next week, the Baker Hughes numbers also having a little bit of the rigs shut down both in Canada and in the United States. But you'll see those numbers generally come right back in mid April. So just be aware of that. Gold's up about 13 bucks. And you can kind of make a case for that in that a lot of people have not been very bearish on the general market. So they kind of stepped back. But you're kind of there. You're up 13 bucks at $1,300. And the real test of the pudding will be on Monday and what gold it does. Did they just buy it because oil was still low? And it's now the go-to on the weekend? Or did they buy it because they think it's going up next week? Well, you'll know that on Monday. But certainly the market's weak. I see absolutely nothing in here that says that I should cover my shorts. When you look at the put call ratio, I did it noon and then one. Maybe I'll take a look at it during the break again too. Basically one for one, one put for one call. And that just tells you that there's not a predilection for anybody thinking that the market can go lower. That's generally where you want to be short. The reason why, if it does go down, it's probably going to go down very quickly without a lot of people to be natural buyers on the way down. So as we kind of toy around 20 points lower on the S&P, we're off 155 on the Dow and the NASDAQ's off 50. But again, the question is what's going to happen on Monday to make buyers come in? It's just been one of these things where there's been very few sellers, but even fewer buyers. The dip buyers who have been rewarded for a while have now gotten punched in the nose a few times. So they're not really wanting to jump in. And with no sign of capitulation, none of the big guys are coming in either. In fact, most of the orders that when I was looking at the market earlier were much more of the smaller variety. There weren't the big blocks coming through today that you normally see when the big guys are getting out of the market. And that continues to go back into the thesis that I've had for, well, I guess this week started talking about on Monday. And that is five or six states have confiscatory rates on taxes with the new tax policy. They don't get to write those off in those very sketchy socialist leaning states in the country. So they're going to have to come up with all that cash, which is about 8% probably that they don't get to write off. So especially a lot of people in the Northeast, California, in my opinion, got to raise cash to pay all the standard state taxes that they would have been able to write off before. And I think that's just enough. And if you're probably a big man on Wall Street, what do you do? You know they're selling. You know it's going to be over soon. You probably just sit back. You have no reason to jump in now. Whatever you got, maybe it's not that big of a pullback. You just sit back, let him sell, let him sell, let him sell. But it's fairly consistent and fairly small. Now, maybe something else happens in the market decides to take another leg down. But at this point, I don't see a lot of change from my earlier prediction that we're that really support comes in about 2650. We did have some very good volume on the way down, but not kind of blowout volume. We haven't had anything out there that says people are worried about lower prices. And guess what? That makes me worry about lower prices. So I'll go through that. We'll go through some charts today. You can give me call at 877-927-6648. You can email me at path at tfnn.com. And of course you can always put a message in the den. But other than that, it's just kind of quiet first segment. We're just going to breeze on in the Friday's close here today. I'll be with Tom O'Brien at 3.30. We'll be talking about some stuff. I wrote a big article today in The Tech Insider about bubbles and euphoria. And maybe we'll touch about that on that with Tom at 3.30. Be back in a minute. I shall return. 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Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. Well, let's get a little history done and then we'll move on and keep moving on. On this day in 1983 IBM introduces the IBM Personal Computer XT which stands for Extended Technology for a price of $49.95. Sounds cheap. It features an Intel 8088 processor with a 10 megabyte hard drive, eight expansion slots, a serial port, a 128 kilobyte RAM, 40 kilobyte ROM, a keyboard, and a one-sided or one double-sided 360 kilobyte floppy drive. Wow. Sounds like some power there. I remember when these came out I was wholly unimpressed. Certainly an Apple II for the price or a Commodore 64. If you added all the stuff on it was far more capable at the time and the only reason to spend that kind of money there was some software, business software, but not available on the other platforms and that was about it. And of course without software, your hardware is nothing but a big pile of hardware. But on this day in 1983 the IBM PC was born and it bored me. It was many years before I really got into IBM PCs after that. Again, we're just hanging out here minus 20 on the S&P Gash. Not much happening as we started the show off today. As we said, volume's okay. We're up about 4.4 billion shares. It's going to be a little lighter today. Options continue to show that the market wants lower prices next week. At that it's just going to slow pullback. At least I've learned to wait until the last five to ten minutes of the day to actually characterize the day. But we've tried to push up. We didn't have any power. Tried to push down. Didn't have any power. I suspect Monday will now be it. We don't have much in the way of earnings. I think it's Thursday before we have the next company of any size whatsoever Thursday night before we have the next earnings. And of course the last news bit we had was 8.30 this morning and there's not much coming next week either. So the trend I think is your friend right now which is down slowly. But everything I look at says that you probably should not see a low before maybe mid next week. Now maybe it just hangs around here. Maybe it goes down to my target of 2650. I just don't see any reason to cover and not a lot of reasons to go along this market. But maybe a surprise will come. We'll be back with Tom O'Brien at 3.30 to talk technology and for the rest of the show. It's time to actually bring up some charts and take a look at what's going on. Yes. All these new fangled PCs are just fads. My Commodore 64 was fine. What else do we have? First question out the day is Microsoft. Do I see anything else for Microsoft? And pretty much the same thing that is that it went up tested the previous high with short five million shares. The real thing and continues to be it is the incredibly light energy off the December 26th blow up to these retests of previous highs. In the case of Microsoft it was that December 3rd high of 1342 with 35 million shares got tested with 29. So you were six million shares short. You can just see the kind of slope all the way down for volume. And you had a little bit more volume yesterday with 25.3 million shares today just about and we're going to call it 14 million shares. But my guess is that we're going to continue down probably have one big day that's maybe around maybe minus 50 on the S&P cash. And that's going to set the low and the dip buyers will return. Anyway, sitting at 2730 on the S&P cash. Let's go ahead and look at some of the other stocks that we were looking at before this week. We'll go and do a retrospective maybe of last week. And let's look at the fourth to do carbonite. We talked about this one being one of the few stocks that actually tested the previous lows on lighter volume. You've got the February 8th low at 2235 with 4 million shares 4.4 actually got into it with 1.5. And you bounce back into the trading range very light volume today. If you got the cash in this one probably time to come out it's probably going to consolidate for a little while. But it did exactly what it was supposed to do, which is when challenging a previous low on extremely light volume, you're going to get an instant bounce out of it. Wycoff called it a special name. What did he call it again? Senior moment. It was a bounce with out preparation, except this one actually was, but you still need some consolidation. I want to see how GWPH did. It went up and tested its previous high back on September 27th. That was one 7965 did with that with 2.3 million shares March 4th. You spiked it with 1 million shares back into the trading range as a great deal of these are support comes in probably another couple of bucks lower into this gap. You will gap up with a 2.4 million shares on the downside today. You've got 173,000. If you were dying to get into this one, certainly looks like you're not going to find any better support or risk reward for GW pharmaceuticals. The only legal marijuana company. What else do we have out here? We were tracking these railroad companies because they've been coming up on rather light volume Kansas City Southern did pull back today. Volumes in the range, but you had three tests on lighter volume of the January 18th high at 111.09. You're pulling back today on 800,000 shares, so not a lot of volume quite yet. L I L a. Yeah, down just a tick, but I don't know if there's anything other tested the previous high of November 8 of $20 and 1 cent was 740,000 shares got into it with 280,000 shares. You're back into the trading range. Let's look at Splunk real quick. And we'll look at Target and see how it did Splunk was probably the worst offender. It was the worst offender of going through a previous high with light volume. It got up to 14370 as it blew through the September 4th high at 130. That had 3 million shares. You had like nothing on the early part of the 1st of March. And all the volume 7.2 million shares came in as a cell. That's continued on down to the 1957 low that we saw today. We finally back on that right around that 120. Will you back? A path of least resistance is David White's daily trading newsletter. And if you're looking for active trading ideas, then now's a perfect time for a 30 day free trial to this powerful daily trading advisory service. David uses his years of trading experience to offer his subscribers his trading ideas each morning in his path of least resistance newsletter. Using a combination of equity trades along with options, David keeps his subscribers up to date with all pertinent market information with intraday afternoon updates when warranted. 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Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Somebody in the den is talking about dropping a bunch of punch cards as they walk down the stairs. And it was kind of funny because generally what you would do is you draw kind of like an X on the end of them and on the side so you could kind of figure out where they went in the deck if you ever did that. But man, I always made sure that I had a box or something so that there was a zero chance of dropping them after I dropped my first load of them. And even that I was very lucky that I think they were only about six inches tall but always a hoot to drop punch cards because they've got to be in order. But you only do that once. Now it's pretty much a breeze. Yeah, $5 a trade. Anyway, we're talking about Splunk when we came back. Some of these have kind of come back to support levels. There may be a little bit more though. Target of course came out with earnings popped a little higher but it never got out of its trading gap that goes back to the 20th of November. That had 21 million shares. You got 8 million shares on March 6 and now it's back in here. So it may be bullish but it doesn't matter how bullish it is right now. You're not getting the volume and you're not holding previous highs in the market for a great deal of stocks. Tiffany's. Another one of these that had come back up to its big gap down. That gap down happened on the 28th of November with a little over 10 million shares. You got into that on March 1 with 1.44 million shares. I mean you just knew with that light of volume you just weren't going to get much. Now you haven't had a particularly great pullback on a lot of these. And what you generally get if these things are going to fall apart is a little push higher. You get above the nine day average and then the next tick down below the nine day and all hell breaks loose. So we're not to that point yet. So you've got to keep an eye on it. We're off 16 points on the S&P cash now. Having a little bit of push up here into the close so far. But we'll see what the close brings. What else do we have XLU. One a little far with that one XLU. And that's kind of interesting in that very light energy on the way up off that December 26 low. It's got into this December 13 high 5717 got to 5771. I hasn't really pulled back any close back below that 5771 though would be a fairly decent cell signal here at 5733. Now the utilities of course kind of a place to go when you're kind of scared about the future. Because of course they'll probably always be there. But at the same time they tend to come back. They just tend to come back less. And the idea there is you know if you've got to be 100% invested because you're a fund you can get into something like utilities or add cash there and have your 100% long. But try to outperform the market by coming back less which is generally what that's all about. Let's go ahead and look at some of the other ones we were talking about a little bit farther back. Let's go back to the 27th. Nike was testing at its high back then. We were talking about how these stocks were breaking with very little volume and what's happened since then. On Nike was that December 21st high at 8582 14 million shares. You got into it was 6 million shares on the 8th and it's rotated right back down into the trading range. Again not a ton of energy off the top so far but certainly no real gusto to go break out those previous highs. NXPI is kind of stuck. You know what I didn't look at that we talked about I wanted to look at was restoration hardware. I haven't talked about that one for a while. The only reason I didn't short this thing because it was one of the best looking shorts out there was the fact that this thing has like 20 or 30% short interest in it. Didn't seem to matter to restoration hardware. It went through its December 4th high at 148 54 6.6 million shares with 664,000 shares. So a tenth of the volume you actually had 800,000 shares on the first. I rolled down the next day you really haven't had a lot of volume come in and again what you're looking for. If you want to expect the entire market is going to go to hell in a hand basket instead of just pull back a little here. If it just continues to pull back a little bit on light volume then you probably have a bounce coming. The worst thing if your long term bullish would be to go up a little bit go above the nine day average and then close quickly right below it. That's generally kind of the death knell a Joe Denopoli pattern that I've always liked. So we looked at that one. Let's look at SSO. This is a ultra S&P 500. We were looking at this just because it basically came up there with light energy actually had a little bit of volume as it attacked the high but didn't have anything in the way of volume on most of the way up. This one did kind of touch the nine day went spiked it on March 4 back down underneath. But again you're probably going to need a little bit more happening out here to get something going to do. We didn't and I did that one. Let's take a look at a and which is Aaron's rents. Another one that had tested its previous high of $56 and September 24 did so with 2.33 million shares got into it with 674,000 shares and of course lower today not a lot of juice either. But you know after 10 years of a bull market when in nine, eight years of a bull market was called that. What you do worry about is a market that comes up and doesn't come off with volume and discontinues to drop a little bit every day until lots of people are trapped at the highs. That's generally the death knell of a market for a while. Let's take a look at some of the other ones that was the 27th. I think let's go back here and look at the 28th. See what I had in here that I liked. Got a question already an email will go to that into it. I don't know what he wants about into it. So let's take a look. I mean you did this one did break out did so a little bit of a pull back. You got the sign of strength out here on the 22nd. You pulled back to it. Again, if the market would make any kind of low that is a very bullish pattern. You'd want ideally in a market is somewhat troubled to come back to this 231 or try to buy it as close as you could to the 231 October 3rd high. I guess that's about it. You're kind of close here. You may not get that 231, but unless the market starts looking a lot better, it is problematic. Do I think NIO is finding support? We'll talk about this one when we come right back. 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That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV for the latest market information. And we had a question from, let me get back to this. Where's he at here? Tomorrow from Seattle, NIO, which is an electronic vehicle manufacturer. I'm pretty sure they're based in China. They decided not to build a facility. They're about the third company this year that decided not to go ahead and start building EVs, mostly because the amazing crush coming out of big manufacturers with EV. Right now, most people don't know it, but the biggest manufacturer of electric vehicles is BMW. And there's a whole line that Volkswagen's coming out. They even have a Dune buggy that'll be out this year. And of course, Mercedes and Porsche. In fact, the Porsche, I think it's called a TACAN, T-A-Y-A-N. They planned 20,000 for the first run, the first year of their sports car, EV. And now they're going to have to double it. And I guess there is a little bit to why Tesla probably changed their marketing strategy to go downscale when some more well-known companies were pushing some sportier cars in a little bit. Anyway, NIO decided not to make their own manufacturing plant. This is where this thing gapped down on the sixth with heavy volume. The question is, do you think it's finding a support short-term? And man, I think this is a, for anybody outside the big five manufacturers, this is going to be a fairly tough year as almost all of them are going to have new vehicles. In fact, by the first quarter, the end of first quarter of 2020, there's supposed to be 110 new vehicles out. So if you wanted to buy an EV, there's probably not a little better time. If you're not looking at expensive EVs, then I think, at least from what I've seen so far, that Kona for Hyundai is the best deal at about $35,000. Compare it to the Tesla that has roll-up windows and rubber mats for carpets at the same price, certainly seems to be more well thought out, at least on the low end. Those cars are a little hard to get, but everybody that reviews them, I've seen one at the dealer's lot that they had down here a few weeks ago, and drove it up and down the street real quick. They didn't let us all have very long test drives. But if you're looking for that kind of car, it's not quite what I'm looking for. A big beefy truck or something that's like a Corvette. Either one of those I could drive. But for $35,000, not a bad-looking car. So NIO has got some neat-looking ideas. I just don't... I mean, I think this sector outside of the big guys is problematic. I like NIO better than a lot of the other ones. If you've already been selling your EVs for a while, you've lost your government dividend, which was a lot of times 10%. And now the newer cars like NIO coming in will still be able to get those 10%. That's why the Kona from Hyundai and some of these other ones that are just coming on seem to be such great deals. They've got that 10%, roughly 10%, depending on what it is, deal. So actually, the people that come late to the party are going to have probably better prices for a while. Again, without building a plant and getting to scale, the question is, can you sell NIO to somebody else? And right now, I think all the big manufacturers already have their cars. If you could find a manufacturer that didn't have an EV in some level of production already, then I think maybe you could, but everybody I think I know of was out there that does have their own products already. So I don't think they're looking for anything over the board. The question is, and I was bringing up the other day with somebody I was talking to, before Ford, there were over 100 car companies. And I think it's kind of the same thing. It's going to take a little while to figure out who has the magic combination of the right product. But again, all these new companies are going to have that subsidy from the government. And the older EV companies, Prius, Tesla, are not going to have that anymore. So it actually opens the gate for other people coming in. Yeah. Okay. Just looking back here. And maybe somebody's playing it for a little bit of a pop. I just don't see much going on in there. We're on 14 points. We're back up where we found resistance before in the market. But we shall see. Okay. Oh, let's look at that. I have some more emails. Got into it. Got that. Got that. Okay. I think I got everything here. Vail, A-V-E-O. Pharmaceuticals. Yeah, this still hasn't given any signal. Let's see what else out here. We wanted to look at Vail. Somebody actually asked me about Vail a few weeks ago. And of course, the big problem is that this thing blew apart on earnings. And of course, it's got a huge lawsuit for a dam that busted. Or is that the other one? Can't remember now. But all these similar companies have kind of a cloud over their head. I don't see any reason to get involved in that cloud until it's all sorted out. But was it Vail or the other one that had the dam bust? I think somebody in the den probably can tell me. Yeah, tacky on. Okay. What else do we have out here? I don't see anything or reason to get in. And these things have too many legal issues at the moment. Let's see what else we have out here. Walgreens Boots Alliance. Didn't even make it back up to its previous high before it rolled over. These continue to be tough. Take a quick look at the IBB for Jackson. We're talking about this coming back to 104 for one of our callers. And he had the puts on it. And I thought there was probably a fairly good reason that it got back in to this area with about 105, 106. Certainly we're kind of there. You got kind of light volume on a Friday. But you got the options good for another week. I'd have to sit on my hands, I think. We'll be back in a minute. I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life. It's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share. If you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money, let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done, which is how to time the markets. I'm Steve Rhodes, author of Mastering Probability. And for the last 12 months, Timer Digest has been tracking my newsletter signals, which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the S&P 500 for the last 12, 6, and 3 months. Timer Digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for gold as well. The fact is, markets can be timed. And I'll teach you the exact set of tools that I use that has transformed me into one of the best at what I do. 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Using the Chapman Wave methodology along with other indicators, Basil Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter. Right now, you can get a two-week free trial to the opening call, Basil's daily trading newsletter, by visiting the front page of TFNN.com. Cancel at any time during that trial and pay absolutely nothing. Get your two-week free trial to Basil's newsletter, the opening call today by visiting TFNN.com. Tom O'Brien Show, next on TFNN. Hey, we're back. Having kind of a slow melt-up. We're now down just to 10 points on the S&P cash as we go into the weekend. Nasdaq off 29. Russell off 5. We have a little bit of a bounce here. Let's go ahead and take a look at some of the big names and see what we've got going on. Again, kind of making up a little bit of the gap down lower on Microsoft, got to 108.81. Again, today is options expiration. So don't be surprised that we pivot out on Microsoft at exactly 110 by the end of the day. Didn't look at Apple today, but it looked, yeah, we'll see how close Apple at the close comes to 170. It's a little higher than that. Now, let's see what it is. AAPL. Oh, it's going for 170-250. We'll see how close it gets to that, but there's a strike there. See how close it gets pushed to that. So you're kind of back into this trading range. And again, options expiration over today, the close. So maybe they pushed it down a little bit, now going to push it up a little bit. Now, Monday and Tuesday are options rollovers. And that's why I said that I think that the first time that you would have a viable bounce is going to be Wednesday, Monday. Going to have a push up or down. If that's up, it'll be down on Tuesday. If it's down on Monday, it'll be up on Tuesday. And Wednesday, you're going to get back into trading. But again, no volume up, no volume down in these markets. They just continue to drip down. You get some dip buyers. But again, we're still not closing up. Got about a little bit more than an hour to go. And we've seen big sellers come in at the very close before. Anyway, we'll see you Monday, same-bat channel, same-bat time. Sell when you can, not when you have to. And we'll see you with Tom O'Brien at 3.30.