 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Pretty interesting slate of games coming up in week number 11 I hope that Thursday night was not a harbinger of things to come because that was not as fun as expected But still some pretty good stuff on the docket for the rest of this week We're gonna talk some player props across week 11 by bringing on JJ Zachary's in Picking his brain on this weekend slain and getting you ready for week number 11 This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for a Fandall research joined here as I have every Friday by JJ Zachary So check him out on Twitter at late round QB find his work at late round commony late round fantasy football podcast and JJ Typically, we begin by talking about Thursday night and honestly We pretended didn't happen. Can we is that okay? It's pretty depressing man pretty depressing Yeah, Mark Andrews now out for the season Joe burrow. We still don't know what's going on with him at the time of this recording But doesn't sound super great It's I've seen some reports that maybe it could just be like a one to two week kind of heel thing and then just a pain tolerance issue But there's also surgery on the table and you know after last it's game You got to look at Cincinnati too and say is this the team that they're really gonna risk Joe burrow's few You know, I don't know anything about the injury But you know, you have to start questioning those types of things in a really tight AFC playoff race with a lot of good teams You know, is this is this what's gonna happen? And really now you're looking at the Steelers and all of a sudden they get Dorian Thompson Robinson this weekend and then they might get a Joe burrow list bangles So maybe eight and three potentially potential. It's crazy. It's crazy to think about Yeah, that's bananas and like it's it sucks because like we talked so much about how fun the AFC is and suddenly we might have a Playoff of no Josh Allen, which is a bummer because I like watching Josh Allen might have a playoff with no Joe burrow potentially and that's not to speak ill of the other guys Like I like watching Tua and stuff like that But it would be a bummer to miss out on two of the more fun quarterbacks in the league And we I was kind of like, you know, you look at the standings You're like, oh there might be a shot that either the bangles or bills with the playoffs But now it's like they might both miss given how tough the bill schedule is. So I don't know I'm just bummed. I I need Lamar to stay healthy a little bit of scare there last night, too Like, you know, it's just I need to need these fun quarterbacks. We can't lose all of them before the playoffs get here Yeah, I mean, I haven't done the research on it But it at least feels like subjectively that we've just seen more quarterback injuries than ever this year Like it just feels that way like we're just seeing complete just just disastrous situations happening for these franchises Well, I have a super flex league where I thought I was destroyed because I only had two starters to begin And those were Jalen Hurts and Anthony Richardson and I was like, oh man, like I lost Richardson. This seems pretty good But it's like, you know, new viable quarterbacks keep popping up and it's like, okay, you got Will Leviss now You know, you got some other guys, you know, you got DTR in case he pops up So it's like it's weird that the attrition rate at quarterback this year It's been pretty tough. We're gonna talk about some fun things week 11. We're talking about the Dallas Cowboys They're shifting philosophy how to handle stuff like that when teams are making a pretty conscious switch To play football a bit differently. We'll talk about player props JJ likes for week 11 as well But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast tomorrow morning Tom Vecchio will break down Sunday night football between the Vikings and the Broncos That'll be up on the covering the spread podcast feed Saturday morning It'll also be up on a fan dual TV plus get fandal TV plus go to fandal calm slash watch and log in with your fandal account Or download the fandal TV plus app on Apple TV Amazon fire and Roku as well Let's begin things JJ by talking about those Dallas Cowboys because over the past three weeks since their bi-week They've leaned fully into the past and it's been a very different team than what they were earlier on and that obviously matters a lot When it comes to trying to project expectations for teams like this How quickly do you want to react to shifts in philosophy like that when it seems like the team is doing it pretty consciously? Yeah, and it's not just that they're doing it consciously. It's that they're effective in doing. Yeah, right That's one of the big things and I talked about this a little bit with like the Falcons on my podcast and in the Bijan Robinson usage and we saw that switch last week with Robinson Obviously, they have a buy this week, but that we saw that switch last week because when teams are losing and things aren't working They're gonna try to shift things and change things to make sure something does work And if you look at Dallas things weren't really working that well and they've been a lot better over the last few weeks You know airing it out a little bit more The one thing I will say though is that a lot of the drop-back over-expected numbers and such they're not They're not match up specific per se, right? They're more so this is what we typically see in these scenarios And this is how pass-heavy this team is in this given scenario And if you look at their three games that they've played over the last three weeks where this change has occurred You know last week it was fairly neutral depending on the source You're looking at for for drop-back over-expected It wasn't like as insane the week before that was Philadelphia and Philadelphia is a past funnel, right? Philadelphia is a team where you absolutely should be passing it You know, they're one of the best teams if not the best team against the run and they've been Oddly one of the worst teams against the pass when last year just wasn't that way at all I mean that the secondary is fine But so like that's been an issue for Philly and teams are attacking them in that way and even the Rams to some degree I mean to some degree we see, you know a little bit more of that funnel It's not, you know, it's definitely not like as extreme as the Eagles But I do think that you know, we should at least take it with a grain of salt to some degree here with with Dallas But with that being said it's working. They're doing well You know, this is a this is gonna be really interesting this weekend with Carolina because teams have you know Carolina has been a little bit better against the run of late But teams have attacked them on the ground a little bit more So I think that's gonna be pretty telling but I do think that in even in a small sample We're working on small samples to begin with in football And so I do think you have to be reactive when you're projecting and say yeah This Dallas team probably be more passive than they were back in like week two week three. Yeah, you were talking about the Eagles I believe they face the highest rate of passes on early downs this year. Yeah, they're at 68% pass right up first downs against them Carolina has faced a 43.9% pass rate, which is the lowest in football. So yeah, they've gone from one extreme to the other like they're still gonna probably be Pass heavy, but will they be as pass heavy? I probably wouldn't expect that personally in the future Let's talk about some fluid situations entering this week JJ You're looking across the league which situations that are in flux right now. Are you monitoring for one props are posted there? Yeah, one is definitely the Minnesota backfield now right now Alexander Madison has not been officially ruled out He had a limited practice yesterday on Thursday. We're recording this on Friday And so, you know a lot of times though We've seen that occur with players who are concussed where they got some some of these limited practices Practices in but they didn't clear concussion protocol in time for that game on Sunday And so I'm not I'm not optimistic that that's gonna happen And so if that doesn't happen just be ready that I think Ty Chandler Is gonna see the majority of the backfield work You know last week after Alexander Madison was concussed and you and I had talked about this gym And you sent over some data about how Ty Chandler versus Ken a Ken a one-woo. Yeah, I think that's the the correct I dug through 250 pages of the Vikings media guidebook to find that yeah I was had the wrong one I think it was yeah You and I are like the only people who care this deeply about pronouncing these names, right? But I at least I mean I guess you probably want your entire life with people saying your last name wrong to some degree and mine People definitely did that with mine So I you know I have to pay a little give a little love to these guys But last week without Alexander Madison Chandler out snapped one with 13 to 3 After that injury I expect Chandler from like a projection standpoint of Madison's out Probably see like 70% of the backfield work now. He's not like this bell cow type back He wasn't even that necessarily throughout college He's more of this like like one of his top comps for me with my prospect model was Elijah Mitchell And so I think that's sort of what we're looking at here where Mitchell was great in the right scheme But we know that you know He hasn't been able to stay as healthy and that might have to do with just size and the way they use them and all That kind of stuff So I'm not necessarily expecting Ty Chandler to see 90% of the team's backfield work I do think that Wanwu could be involved in some way. I don't know if Miles Gaskin is going to be active I know that they just got him off or ended up getting him back Um, you know, and so maybe something will happen there But I do think Ty Chandler will still be, you know, sort of the the biggest beneficiary of this of this Alexander Madison concussion Um another situation to monitor the Houston wide receivers. This is really it's so strange But we haven't seen their big four wide receivers. So that's Nico Collins tank del Noah Brown Robert Woods We haven't seen them all healthy in a given week since week one and in week one It was before we knew what tank del was about right like we saw him in the preseason We were optimistic that he could be good But they weren't using him, you know in the role that they're using him in now And so, you know entering this week if all of them are hypothetically healthy How is this going to play out now? I will say Noah Brown is now hurt as well So we could just see a very easy to project situation where you got Nico Collins and tank del playing on the perimeter Playing two wide sets Robert Woods plays a slot I think that if Noah Brown plays what we might see and this is more just from a You know football and projection standpoint and how I'm sort of looking at the situation I think we might see Del and Nico play the most of the four and then see a little bit more of a rotation out of the slot With Noah Brown and Robert Woods, but I do think that if all four are healthy We're probably not going to see like a 95 percent snap share from from any individual wide receiver from that group Which is a little unfortunate from like a projection standpoint a ceiling standpoint But keep that in mind because you might want to hit unders then as a result and then The last situation to monitor is the lion's backfield Last week we saw they kind of rotated their running backs by drive. You know, we saw jameer gibbs Have some nice sustained drives and then david montgomery ended up playing fewer snaps With some of that had to do with the fact that he had a 75 yard touchdown and that one drive was one play long Um, but but even still I do think that moving forward What we're looking at here is a split backfield where jameer gibbs and montgomery Maybe you know, maybe montgomery sees a little bit more work on the ground gibbs is going to see the receiving work I mean this past week from a route participation standpoint gibbs had a 64 percent route participation Uh david montgomery was at 27 percent. So it's pretty dramatic there And then I still think that david montgomery's probably the goal line guy more so than gibbs There was a report not even a report. It was gibbs going on amen ross st. Brown's podcast I believe and he said that uh, there was that where gibbs had that drive They're moving on the field and he did a lot of work to get to the goal line David montgomery checked himself out so that jameer gibbs could go and score a touchdown So I do think that we're looking at montgomery still being the goal line guy Uh, I don't think this is like a 50-50 thing at the goal line So keep that in mind whenever you're looking at like touchdown props and stuff But overall, I mean it's a good backfield in general like both these guys are going to get theirs But I do think that you know gibbs is more of the pass catcher Montgomery the goal line guy the bruiser and that's sort of what we saw last week So if it's 60 40 montgomery for the goal line stuff if we just assume that you know bump it towards his direction What percentage is it this week against the bears? Because it's revenge game. Yeah, and gamble if anyone's going to care about our revenge game. It's that guy Is it is it 115 percent montgomery negative 15 percent gibbs? How we skewing there? Yeah, I mean look, I think that we're going to see a situation where montgomery sees 90 of that goal line work I really I really think that um, you know, he's he's just going to be that guy more So I would even I would even say more than 60 40 movement I would I would maybe say like a 70 30 type situation between the two even though gibbs converted I mean, let's be real like montgomery was stuffed at the goal line last week gibbs was the one who was converting So maybe that changes things But it does seem like they have their obvious roles and this is what we projected entering the season gym Like this is what we thought was really going to play out How it was going to play out where gibbs had these really nice target shares with being used as a receiver Obviously electric with a ball in his hands But then montgomery's sort of the grinder the bruiser and it wouldn't surprise me in a more potential positive game script this week in chicago Uh, if they just lean on montgomery a little bit more because that's the role that he plays in the offense And going back to what you said about dalis like if it's working why change it and like with the lion's backfield It is working. So no reason to change it. It looked awesome last week So it tougher match this week, but uh, I think that I agree with your assessment of how the backfield should break down Let's take a look at some yardage props across week 11 jj. Where are you seeing value right now there? Yeah, I should have checked this before the show as usual because I do these the night before usually but Trey mcbryde gym his line on fandals 55 and a half receiving yards when I locked it in Um, I think that that this is too low of a line. This is actually three yards higher at a lot of other books Um, but Trey mcbryde has been on absolutely. Is this still 51 and a half or is it higher 55 and a half? Oh, okay. Okay. Well, then it's it rose a bit since I since I checked it out But here's the thing jim. I'm still going higher with that number I still think that it's a it's a number that you can you can pound the over Uh, mcbryde mcbryde has been on fire without zack earth's over the last three games He's seen target shares of 39 percent 25 percent and 29 percent which is unheard of at the tight end position It's literally better than like a travis kelsey. Uh, and the crazy thing is is that this isn't like a tendency thing He's done this with three different quarterbacks Like this isn't just like oh this quarterback likes to target their tight end. No, he's done with three separate quarterbacks at this point So I think it's a scheme thing alongside a talent thing Now he's hit the over this number still even if you look at 55 and a half He's been way over that number in two of his last three games The one game where he wasn't over was against cleveland And I think that the line that we're seeing is sort of like an average and aggregate of those three But if you look at what cleveland's done against tight ends this year They've allowed 80 receiving yards to tight ends all tight ends all season long outside of mark andrew Which is insane. It's it's 80 total. We're talking like 12 yards per game Among those tight ends that we're seeing against cleveland. So you look at this matchup against houston They're first in the nfl and adjusted target share allowed the tight ends So teams when facing the texans are targeting their tight ends at a higher rate I think tray mcbride smashes this week Like there's a very real chance that he has another amazing game So I like the over there another one that I like brice hall His receiving line is 27 and a half receiving yards and I like the over on that one as well He started seeing a higher row participation about four games ago So he's played four games in a row now worth at least a 40 percent row participation in each game And he smashed this over as a result and three of those four games should be a negative game script And there's no michael carter anymore and I I know that that might seem seem like it doesn't matter But he was Kind of except for last week last week we saw shift and the way they use their two minute They're running backs in the two minute offense brice hall played 73 percent of their two minutes naps last week But there was a lot lower before that so what that means is that you're going to feel a lot more comfortable You know betting and over like this because his role is going to be a little bit more secure with michael carter no longer there Buffalo also ranks third and adjusted target here allowed to to running backs So teams are throwing the ball to their running backs a little bit higher a higher rate Against buffalo than other teams and there's a potential for a negative game script here too Where the where the jets are going to be forced to throw the ball a bit So I like that over of 27 and a half. Is it still 27 and a half? Am I still good there? It is yep So you are all good with that one and the 55 and a half was minus 114 for train Mcbride It is also minus 114 for breeze hall I think that honestly the michael carter thing does matter a lot like you you you talked about that but like I think people can sometimes undersell the importance of guys who are sucking up a pretty good percentage of the snaps and carter was doing exactly that and Carter didn't get a lot of work But if you're a zack wilson or if you're in a fanny'll hack it Are you more likely to have a dump off to michael carter? Or a dump off to breeze hall hall likely earn a larger target share in Those snaps than what carter was doing. So even though carter himself wasn't getting a lot of work I don't think that should mean Don't expect breeze to get a lot of work if he's the guy getting those snaps instead Yeah, and look these lines are efficient, right? Like we know that these lines are are good And so you need those small edges to really find ways to like like Even if it's only an extra four or five yards from a projection standpoint That could be all the difference in him hitting the over Yeah, looking at uh, I want to see if they have a rushing plus receiving up for breeze as well But it's not up yet, but I think that's also a pretty enticing one Given the injuries buffalos defense has had and stuff like that. Um, I think both those are in play for breeze hall What about touchdown bets? What you seeing there for week 11 JJ? I feel like regression is going to hit me at some point with these with these any time touchdown bets But I got two of them for you. The first one's dj more at plus 175. Uh, that's over on fandall Justin fields should be back this week. It sounds like the lions are a top five Are the lions have allowed a top five pass rate and all of football this year because number one It's really hard to run on them, but number two, they're a good team So teams are trailing against the lions pretty frequently more hasn't scored since that crazy thursday night game Against washington where he went absolutely bonkers and had three, uh, receiving touchdowns Um, but detroit, you know as a as a pass defense They're below average and passing epa per drop back allowed So I think the combination of some regression may be coming Uh favorable regression just in fields being back I think that that plays into dj more being a pretty good bet at plus 175 Is an anytime touchdown score and then this next one is over on on draft kings Because the juice is a little bit better But chris godwin is plus 300 as an anytime touchdown score. I'm going back to godwin jim Uh, look if you look at this slate There aren't many teams that you feel confident are going to score a lot of touchdowns this week, right? And so you can go after like the san francisco players and such that's fine Uh, but I just didn't find that their numbers were as intriguing as going with these longer odds at plus 300 with a guy like godwin Here's the thing with godwin. He's currently tied for fourth in the nfl and targets within the opponent's 10 yard line He has seven of them mike evans who's scoring a touchdown seemingly every week has four targets within the 10 So chris godwin has almost doubled up mike evans in terms of targets in that green zone area This is likely a pass heavy script for for tampa bay. Uh, you know, they're playing san francisco They're at 11 and a half point underdog So we will likely see a pass heavier script Um, and like I said, obviously the team total here is why the number is as low as it is or as as good as it is From an odds perspective, um, but I do think that that godwin is a prime regression candidate He's seeing enough work in his offense consistently He's really just gotten pretty unlucky at scoring touchdowns. And if tampa bay Maybe scores two this week I do think that that odds are in godwin's favor that he could get one of them And I did take the over in this game I think that it should be a game where we see a decent amount of passing Uh, the buccaneers are very good against the rush Which could force the 49ers to be a bit more pass heavy than they typically are and You know, bucks are probably gonna play from behind I know that san francisco's defense has not been as stout against the rush recently But they still faced a 63 percent pass rate on early downs so far this year, which is second behind philadelphia So part of that's game script, but like game script should also be that way in this game So back to old reliable chris godwin Three to one you can find out there plus 260 at vandal sportsbook for chris godwin I feel like he's already No, wait, he taught he paid off for us on a thursday night game. Wasn't it? It was so we hadn't even talked about him like right, right We've got to come through for us now like he owes us, right? Yeah, he owes us because we weren't able to do the show for that one. Yeah I I don't I feel like so you talked about regression for your touchdown bets with how good they've been this year I feel like it can't come yet because the universe owes you on chris godwin So next week the regression well, I guess we won't have you next week. It's Thanksgiving But like week after maybe then we'll get the universe regression We'll welcome it. We need the godwin one first. I think what's really interesting too Just as an aside is that it, you know, whenever I do the touchdown stuff I'm obviously looking at prime regression candidates. I'm looking at expected touchdowns versus how many touchdowns players had I'm kind of starting there and then comparing that to the players odds, right? Yeah, and so just from like a process standpoint and every week I'm like, man, tony pollard's number has got to be good Like like it like it's got to be at like plus 150 plus two, you know, two to one odds or something like that And every time it's like this week against carolina, which obviously smashed spot like hypothetically tony pollard should dominate this week, but it's still like minus 130 like it's still But but a player like godwin continues to have these really really strong enticing odds So i'm just going to keep going back to them. It's a length into minus 115 for pollard Little little more intriguing a little tempting. I'm not doing it, but you know I need it for I will benefit because I'll use them in dfs So if he if he goes off I'll benefit that way instead That is JJ Zacharias and make sure you check him out on twitter at late round qb find his work at late round Dot com and the late round fantasy football podcast JJ. Thank you once again as always I will not talk to you next week. So I have a fantastic Thanksgiving as well. We'll talk to you again in two weeks You too, Jim. Thanks. Alrighty big. Thank you once again to JJ Zacharias And again if you want his thoughts on season long fantasy check out the late round fantasy football podcast and late round Dot com as well Score early this nfl season with fandal america's number one sports book right now new customers Get $150 and bonus bets with any winning $5 moneyline bet. 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Good luck to you with your bets We'll talk to you once again monday. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network