 This is covering the spread part of the Fanduil podcast network We have four games in the NBA tonight three of which could be elimination games One of which is a series tied 2-2, which has been a lot of fun a lot of injury news there We're gonna break down all four of those games with Brandon Goodula of number fire getting his read on those four NBA games and talking about the Mexico open on the PGA tour Welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the Fanduil podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonness. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire Joined here as mentioned by Brandon. Goodula check him out on Twitter at goodula 13 find his work over at number fire calm Brandon For separate NBA playoff games for tonight. How you doing today? Uh good. I was a little confused. You said that the like The Kings Warriors series was good. Lot of injuries like you rolled it together and I was like no I said it's a good series and there are a lot of injuries. Hopefully those were separate enough There's some intrigue around De'Aaron Fox. Is he doubtful? Is he not who can say not I? Yeah, it just it caught me by surprise a little bit, but I also have had Only one coffee today, so I need about seven more and then I'll be That'll be up. It's your baseline number for coffee. So the thing is like what is a cup of coffee to you? I mean, this is a cup of coffee to me This is my thermos is if you're watching YouTube, you can see the thermos. Yeah, so like I have like what I think It's probably like a double mug of like what's actual Okay, like I think that design Just like some okay I thought it was like a something I should have as I weirdly lick my with my tongue out. Anyway, um, I Ranked mug and I could have brought that out. I should have Matt Power rank. What the power rank? It's a powering mug or coffee mug. Oh, I didn't why didn't hear what you said I've got a powering mug a northwestern mug a Chicago L map mug Which will be very useful once you move there So like, you know just didn't know if you had any of fun fun mugs. He wanted to share. We're along with your fun hats I I like to bust one out for Christmas. So look my wife is very good with the design. So we have a lot of Minimalistic, I mean, we don't have a whole lot like we're not a whole lot on the counters anything like that So our mugs tend to be just sort of of white with a little bit of pop Got some ones with some wolves on them, which is cool But I think my favorite one is when I bust out For Christmas, it just says this girl loves Christmas. It's a big big green mug And I I do use it on the stream, but you've never caught attention to it that I know so okay I'm you know on the lookout I don't know why you can find that to just Christmas that seems rude to the people again again It's festive and we're not gonna leave that out What you know that on the coffee bar is it because you're worried about the cats causing mischief and destroying a beautiful mug. No, it's because It's green I'm gonna buy you a mug next time that I win the bobble hat No, I like head-to-head competition, which might never happen again next time I win I will force you to buy yourself a mug a fun mug as opposed to you buy me a hat or bobble head whichever Way the the winds may be blowing We're in twins act because the wolves got eliminated last night and I deeply deeply care about wolves basketball as you obviously know Gotta focus on the twins of their first series win against the Yankees since I was 10 So, you know, we'll roll with that instead for today We're gonna dive into some potential elimination games for tonight get you ready for the NBA and talk some PGA toward the Mexico Open John Rom Tony Finau in that field and pretty much nobody else We'll talk about all that later on the first a reminder To make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast or NFL draft prop betting preview with Dr. Ed Feng went up yesterday afternoon breaking down Ed Saber bets for this year's draft talking about the Will Leviss Reddit weird stuff All that in the same feed here on covering the spread and up on the Fandall YouTube page If you like what you hear hit the thumbs up on YouTube Also subscribe to the Fandall YouTube page or give us a five star rating over on Apple the NBA playoffs are here And you can get in on the action right from first tip with Fandall right now All customers can get a no sweat same game parlay every weekend when you bet the NBA playoffs That's right Just place a three-plus leg same game parlay or same game parlay plus in any NBA playoff game You'll get bonus bets back if you don't win There's no better place to bet all the playoff action than Fandall America's number one sportsbook head to the Fandall app and get a no sweat same game parlay every week into the NBA playoff Fandall official sports betting partner of the NBA Must be 21 plus and president select states Fandall is offering online sports Wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC Bonus issued is non with trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Com slash RG in Massachusetts. Hope is here gambling helpline ma.org or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in Massachusetts in New York 1877 8 hope and wire text open Y in New York or Arizona 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 Or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1 800 9 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1 800 5 2 2 4700 or in Kansas KS gambling help calm Louisiana is 1 8 7 7 7 770 stop in Maryland MD gambling help org and in West Virginia go to 1 800 gambler net Let's dig in now to the first game in the NBA for tonight printed That is the nicks at the Cavaliers the nicks of a chance to close this one out But the Cavaliers are five and a half point from favorites total is two oh two and a half when you look at this game What stands out to you from a betting perspective? Yeah, super slow series 90.1 possessions per game for these teams under a hundred points per game for each side on average No more than a hundred seven points scored by a single team in this series only the nets and 76ers were planted at a slower pace And Cleveland, you know down three to one despite having a better effective field goal percentage Then the nicks both are pretty low quite low but That's an important number and it is a little bit interesting to see the gap there of like three percentage points in favor of Cleveland despite their status as Trailing in the series the nicks are just doing a really good job on the offensive glass You know cabs doing a pretty solid job themselves, but Nick's even better there and that's kind of been one of the differences and turnover rate for Cleveland a little bit higher Then you'd like to see as well for most of these games, but my you know If you look at like the underlying data use the four factors to kind of figure out like what expected scores should be The series has been a little bit closer than the actual point totals have been New York Averaging a four-point point differential, but should be about 1.3. So still favors The nicks again pace is bad here. We know that scoring is low shooting has been bad, but If we're being honest here We're kind of I don't want to say we're due for an over but the shooting and The slow pace has really brought down the total at 202 and a half to such a point that The over is very much in play. We're looking at sort of outlier actually low shooting So anything a little bit more substantial than that the cabs really got to be Locked in we tend to see some some better performances from you know the role players at home I think that they'll get some scoring help here I do have this spread at 6.2 in favor of the cabs So I would be fine with that, but I kind of prefer the over even though this this series has felt Like a blast from the past They're really you know 2000 pick your favorite low scoring arrow, whatever it is But yeah, I kind of think that the over makes a lot of sense and if you're into it I would say calves You know minus five and a half, but I Would probably rather just take the money line at that rate because I think it's a pretty close number Compared to what my model says. Yeah, the total in this game as you mentioned is at 202 and a half The over is minus 110 now you use the word do and I think that that can be a Word that is often misused a lot of times where you're kind of talking about regression. That's what you're talking about You'll see the word do used in situations where Maybe a team hasn't done something for a while, but it's for legitimate reasons here You're just on the regression and so I like when I hear the word do my ears like vomit But like I think in the way that you're using you're talking about regression in terms of shots falling because like they're not as bad offensively as they played so far in the series, correct these two teams Yeah, and I mean like they're generally like solid defensive teams If not, you know really good defensive teams, but the Cavaliers right now Leading the playoffs in the bad sense in turnover rate Don't love that if that gets scaled back if the shooting gets a little bit better because we're already lingering close to Enough points here where we're gonna get an over So at a certain point teams just aren't gonna shoot as bad every single game So I think with a little bit of a little bit better You know Ball control not turning the ball over so much for Cleveland not shooting at complete like bottom of the playoffs for both teams Basically, that's all we're looking at. I'm not saying this game is gonna be scoring 240 and be you know 75 75 at halftime anything like that, but This is it makes a lot of sense mathematically and it does feel You know in my notes, I say it's gonna be tough to kind of root for the over here But I think that makes makes the most sense for this game alternate point total over highest we can give us 228 and a half Sorry, I was looking for your 240 couldn't quite get there I think we'll need about seven over times for that, but no, I think it really comes down to like just having shooting there that is not complete Completely terrible basically. Yeah, okay So Brandon does like the over there two or two and a half Maybe not the alt over a 240, but hey, you know, we can we can drain at least Second game for tonight is the Lakers at the Grizzlies Lakers took a three to one a series lead on Monday night, but they're now four point underdogs on the road against the Grizzlies total here is two 21 and a half Brandon looking at this game for game number five. Who do you see coming out on top? Coming out on top Because I'm focused on the total here for this, okay, what do you see at the time? Well, I just wasn't prepared I was prepared to roll in to to to so to my overview. So I actually have The Grizzlies the thing is the spread I have it for exactly so okay throw that right out Not interested there. Love a good efficient line. I do think I do think that the Grizzlies I just want to make sure that I was a consistent with like what my number said here But yeah, I do think that that the Grizzlies We'll get this one But I think there's a lot of interesting notes for this game The Lakers are holding the Grizzlies to a forty seven point seven effective field goal percentage They're at the Lakers are fifty one point five percent from the cells. So again towards the low end Other than that, it's pretty even in terms of the four factors and for that reason it's it's very likely that the The Lakers are somewhat underperformed in this series and they've been extremely good with LeBron James Anthony Davis and D'Angelo Russell all playing together eleven and two outright 94 against the spread so Might wonder like why I'm thinking the Grizzlies here. It's just kind of what the data says and frankly Game fives are historically good to the home team You know without looking at context of whether they're close-out games or the complete opposite here But yeah, it's it's a situation where we're gonna Again, we're not due for Desmond Mayn to shoot better, but he's he's under 30 percent from three on like 35 attempts He's a really good shooter. I think that ticks up This is a situation where the Grizzlies probably gonna come out come out strong But for me what stands out most is actually that total and I think it's the under for this game Averaging just two nineteen points per game and based on the four factors should be at like two fifteen point six per game The actual numbers based on like, okay, this is how good the Lakers have been with LeBron AD and D'Angelo Russell Factor that in to you know, the Grizzlies current health even that says that we should lean toward the under So I'm not really interested in who wins I I'm kind of on board with the Lakers kind of having this revival, but for me I think the right play here or my favorite play I should say at least is is the under so efficient spread at the Grizzlies minus four But Brandon does like the under two twenty one and a half minus one ten the number right that on that right now Over at Fandall sportsbook Third game for tonight is a heat at the box Of course, we got Jimmy Butler back in Wisconsin, which is kind of fun And he went bananas a couple nights ago to help the heat Overcome a massive deficit win that game outright and now they're up three to one But the spread here is eleven and a half in favor of the Bucks the total is two twenty and a half So Brandon my question for you is can Jimmy do it again or are the Bucks in line to cover a really big spread here? Yeah, it's always tough with these playoff games because You know, they're both they're both playoff teams Pays tends to be a little bit slower You feel like you know each team has the ability to you know punch and counter punch and to cover a big spread Is tough, but also it's not that uncommon to see these games that turn into blowouts and right now This could be one where you know Milwaukee gets ahead in Miami just kind of Throws in the towel and says we'll see you next game That's always tough, especially coming on and you know, there's reasons to think that based on like you said This basically being the Jimmy Butler series right now He looked completely well first of all phenomenal, but he looked You know pretty worn out by the end of that game It reminded me a bit of like classic LeBron with like the the terrible calves where Yeah, they're they're doing stuff, but if LeBron wasn't doing what he was doing This would be pretty abysmal Believe it or not has actually been the best Shooting series by effective field goal percentage combined in the playoffs not really what you may be think between these two but In games with the honest drew holiday and Chris Middleton Milwaukee's 19 and 8 just 12 and 5th 12 and 15 against the spread but Again, if you inject the current rotation data Account for the heat not having Tyler here. Oh that kind of stuff 11 and a half points is a lot. It was 11 I actually have this one at 13 and a half in favor of the Bucks. I kind of do fear the deer I think they'll come out Come out swinging Get get out ahead. You honest presumably a bit healthier than he was even last game Considering that home court advantage, you know that kind of stuff. I kind of do think that they cover because if If Miami doesn't get any help and Jimmy but I can't do it again That that last game would have been Kind of tough and you can remind me or correct me if this is incorrect But thinking back to that LeBron analogy back in the day with the calves they were willing to Kind of shut things down if it was not a close score Because of how hard he would go in the close games in my misremembering that but it does seem like Like if the score got out of hand like okay, let's let's look forward to game six stuff like that Because I feel like that's the way I remember those those teams Brother, I don't even remember what happened yesterday, but it does sound familiar As the world's most foremost NBA expert. I feel like I would know yeah, you clearly Yeah, that's why I'm always giving my own picks here on on the NBA side of things as always But yeah, 11 and a half and I'm assuming the 13-point spreader that you have does not account for the possibility of like They shut things down if it gets to be too out of a gap, correct Yeah, I don't really account for that, but I would I don't think anyone would be surprised if both The heat pushed the box to the brink. Mm-hmm, but also I don't think we'd be surprised if We're looking at like a 62 38 situation at halftime and it just doesn't really get much better than that So it's we talked about this with like when we talk football and talk about like which games are gonna be high Scoring or low scoring and we make the jokes of like I just see that I see the overlay coming up half time Three nothing like this game's gonna like I can just envision it between two me three nothing in this game Would be sick. Yeah, but you know I see I Just kind of envision like that graphic with Kind of an 18 points gap like in the third quarter, right? But if Jimmy brings it then any brings it my any wins by 10. Yeah Pretty much. Yep. Okay, so Brandon does like the bucks minus 11 and a half That is minus 114 right now at fangirl sportsbook Final game of the night is the Warriors and the Kings that spread right now is one and a half in favor of the Warriors Total is two thirty four and a half that has ticked down a half point here in the past half an hour or so and deer and fox was doubtful But now it said he plans to play in this game. So Brandon, I know you love injury ambiguity So what's your read on this game Kings and Warriors? Yes, it's actually the toughest night of the night for me not just for the injury situation, but Just a series itself that that's tricky the the Warriors We know their road struggles, but that's kind of explainable to a degree by like three-point shooting Against them, which is not specifically in their control that kind of stuff So it's been a really weird split the Kings are like They're good, but you would also think for them to that they would be able to take advantage of a Warriors team without dream on green So it's kind of hard for me to get a feel for these teams, you know The Warriors at times been without, you know, Andrew Wiggins. It's just it's a it's a weird situation And now we throw in the the finger injury to deer and fox now In games with the Montess a bonus, but Fox off the floor, which doesn't even specifically Mean that subbonus was on the floor for all of these possessions just that he played in the game And Fox was not on the court Sacramento's been about as good As they were with Fox, I mean a little bit less Less strong, but the question is like is it you know, I don't I don't know what the The situation is I don't know how effective will be but you ask like well They're gonna actually be worse if he's trying to play through You know a finger injury on a shooting hand like and that make that skews things so It's kind of a tricky one And the series itself has been pretty tight overall in terms of the four factors Kind of pretty average overall that the kind of outlier here is just that Sacramento hasn't shot super well, but you know up tempo game for me Once I account for everything my model has this one is essentially is like a pick them So at that rate, I'm good taking the one and a half points for the home side here That's I think that the right play not overreacting to the injury The way that I think this one Comes back to get me is if if Fox is just completely ineffective and that Would you know then show that? You know with Fox on the floor not a hundred percent or like dealing with this injury that they're kind of a bad team So like that's kind of the main fear here, but I do think that taking the points is the right play That spread is one and a half right now total or one and a half the Number on that is minus one ten on the one and a half the money line for the Kings plus one or two If you have that as a toss-up, I think it does make sense to go with the points here Go with the plus one one and a half and minus one ten I think that is the preferred way to bet this one So the numbers brain and lecture tonight nixon cats over two or two and a half Lakers grizzlies under two twenty one and a half bucks minus eleven and a half and the Kings plus One and a half at minus one ten Let's talk now about the pga tour for this week not the biggest event But if we have brandon here, I might as well ask him about this event And it's also kind of fun as a thought experiment because there are only two like top end golfers in this field John rom is plus 260 tony finau plus 850 nobody else shorter than 19 to 1 So let's start things off with a rom and finau brandon Any value on those two guys given how much it drops off after them despite short numbers here So based on What I presume or specifically the the reactions to where the bets are coming in Like you would think that all the value is that these guys are just overvalued and that the value is on Everyone else because these odds are so short, but frankly, it's kind of the opposite Um My motto has rom at like plus 250, which is wild Uh, so he's actually like if you if you're cool with a plus 260 return I know jim says values value if you're if you're cool with that to win a full field event like sure rom one here last year by the way, we're not going to get like Too much into the specifics of the course, but uh from what we learned last year for uh, If you don't a viarta is distance helps sort of uh easy place to get up and down so rom fits He showed he showed up well at the heritage after winning the masters. So he clearly is not just like phoning it in Um, and then for tony finau my motto has him at at plus 700. So oh wow Some value there as well. Yeah, he's the better value, which i'm more okay with Then someone who's around like the the plus 260 mark, but Yeah, these two guys are actual values according to my model now part of that Is that they're really good putters too and so they are Going to perform Well long term in terms of just actual stroke skiing total numbers um but yeah, like I'm fine with both of them and I would also throw your boy windham clark into the mix At 19 to 1 as like a fair value and what we're seeing is What feels like two or three names that are completely overvalued and Everyone seems to be betting everyone else and that doesn't seem like the right play Mathematically, Tony finau is a great value and rom and windham clark are Pretty solid values themselves. So it sounds like the one you actually would be okay betting is finau plus a 50. Is that correct? Yes, okay. Well, I mean i'm not gonna talk anyone out of clark or rom and yeah Like that's just the reality of that but if i'm picking one it's finau but easily if if with me With I put a lot of trust in your numbers. Um, if I look at your numbers and see that rom is a value plus 260 I'm taking it because like he said values value, but Having finau's fair market at it was 12.5 to win. Um, it is implied as a plus 850 are Longer are like 10 and a half percent. I'm trying to you know, get this down. Um before I pull up the calculator But uh, plus 850 and pydons 10.5 percent nailed it first time. Um, if I can get Two percentage points of value. That's also a good one. So uh finau does seem like a good bet there but rom a value clark Like fair I think that that makes a lot of sense Would you take rom and finau or is that too much exposure to a market where only one guy can win for you? Uh, I'm fine with it. I think for me to feel Like justified betting John rom it's gonna be like a multi-unit bet and That's just kind of how I view it. Um, so I don't I don't mind it I'm more likely to go with finau potentially clark and then uh, there's two names at 65 to 1 who are interesting For potentially even like partial units just because there's so much win equity between Finau and rom basically 40 percent, but Our guy luke list oh 65 to 1 Uh and alex smally at 65 to 1 as well. I think those are uh, probably the two most interesting quote-unquote long shots Again, if the course plays like I did last year distance in t-degree and game is going to be beneficial And these guys have that the putting is not always there for them. And that's be sure about that partially a bold statement of luke list Partially why they're 65 to 1 in a field like this, but again You know, it's a it's a good course fit. And if the putting is somewhat reasonable here We could see them uh farewell. And of course, I'm always fine taking Taking my long shots with top tens as well just to sort of protect myself To some degree. Yeah, I think thinking about it from my perspective I would be okay doing fino and rom because like if you give me a NASCAR group, which is very different But you give me a NASCAR group out with six drivers in it and I show value on the guy at plus 260 and a guy at Plus 850 I would be okay taking bold even though I know only one guy can win that market It's not my preferred way to do things I tend to be very limited with outrides and stuff like that as a result because I don't want to have a lot of dead bets that are automatically dead, but I think I'd be okay with that but the considerations are brandon outside of rom and clark Are luke list and alex smally 65 to 1 and then uh, tony finna the firm bet there at plus 850 Any other markets catching your attention here for the mexico open? All right, joseph brandon that's a top 10 plus 410 Uh, I can pick up some distance for for him off the tee wedge games pretty good Uh, I think that that's a that's a good enough combo this week to be in contention and get it You know, it's it's not really like a scrambling kind of contest Um, but being able to get up and down uh or put it close from within 30 is never a bad thing So I like that for for bramble another top 10 Uh leah Hodges is plus 500 it was t6 at valero, uh, the texas open Top 20 at the honda and the genesis since mid february as well Is a much much much easier field Much easier than there was even last year So I think the path to upside is there and then uh, probably the first matchup bet I've ever given on on this show because I don't I just don't do a whole lot of matchups But uh our guy windham clark minus 134 over gary woodland very similar ball strikers right now Over the past 50 rounds woodland the better driver, but the short game much much better For windham clark in that sample. So I feel pretty good with that one and i'm trying to get better at acknowledging matchup bets, but It's something that i'm something that i'm still working on isn't that a wrestling thing? Acknowledge me. Is that a thing? Oh jim. I'm slowly trying to to pick it up. I'm slowly working on who is that Who is it? Yeah, who is the acknowledged me person roman reigns our travel chief? Okay windham reigns Acknowledge Windham clark, I think that's the takeaway here. So the ones brain and mentioned there Winding clark over gary woodland minus 134 leah Hodges top 10 5 to 1 and joseph branwood top 10 at plus 4 10 That's all we got here for today But I want to thank you once again brandon for swinging by breaking down your thoughts on nba and the pga Good luck to you with your bets across the nba for tonight. Have fun watching those games. Enjoy the mexico open We'll talk to you once again soon Thank you for having me on always uh always wanted to talk about the process of why it is that I like the stuff that I like And that's all we can control, baby Trust the process trust windham clark. There's only two tenants of sports betting in my opinion You can find brandon on twitter at kadula 13. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s We are back once again tomorrow to talk some more betting Looking forward to it. We'll get some nascar some formula one in there. We'll talk to you all that This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network