 The start of the MLB DFS season has been a good one for me and I hope it has been the same for you. But I think this week, week number three or two and a half, whatever you wanna call it is the one where we really start to hit our stride because for each pitcher we'll see this week, we've already seen them probably twice so far, maybe minimum of once. And we know, are they the same as they were? Have they made tangible changes? Are those changes good or bad? We can get a read on that. We can also get a read on which guys have made swing changes and things like that. So we've actually got good data but maybe the market hasn't fully reacted to that data yet. So I'm pretty pumped about this week in general and I think that we begin things off with a pretty fun slate on Monday. We got decent pitching options. I think you've got a handful of guys you could put at the top, some solid stacks as well. So it's a fun one. We're gonna break it all down and get you ready for tonight's slate in MLB DFS. Welcome on into the solo shot. That's right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Saunders. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire here to break down Monday's eight game main slate with lock set for 7, 10 PM Eastern for today. So the six PM games, not in the main slate on FanDuel. So keep that in mind as we run through things for today. When looking across those eight games, only one game has a temperature outside of a 15 degree range between like 56 and 71. That one exception is the Brewers and the Diamondbacks in Arizona. It is 91 degrees there, the roof is open. Chasefield does this fantastic thing where they will list out roof information ahead of time and the roof is open for today. It's good for offense. I'm not sure I will get there personally, at least not for offense. I think both are one offense struggles and the other team is a very good pitcher starting. So I might not get there for offense, but it is noteworthy that the best hitting conditions for tonight are in Arizona for the Brewers and the Diamondbacks. We'll dive into the pitching preview with stacks and more in just one second. But first, a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed, wherever you get your podcast. We have the No More Daily ISO. We do have the solo shot here every weekday, breaking down MLB DFS, UFC for select events via Austin Swame and PGA back once again this week for the RBC Heritage Open. Get all those by subscribing to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed, wherever you get your podcast. Also, if you like what you hear, do not forget to give us a five star rating. We appreciate those of you who have done so as well. The solo shot also up over on the Fandal YouTube page for those of you who want to watch it in video form or some reason we appreciate those of you who have done so for sure. Grand slams, no hitters and double plays are back and there is no better place to get in on the MLB action than Fandal America's number one sports book. That's because right now new customers can step up to the plate when they no sweat first bet up to $1,000. Sign up, place your first bet and get up to $1,000 back in bonus bets if you don't win. So don't miss your chance to get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 when you join Fandal today. Fandal official partner of Major League Baseball must be 21 plus and president select states first online real money wager, only $10 deposit required, refund issued is non with throttle bonus bets that expire in 14 days. Restrictions apply, see full terms at fandal.com slash sports book. Fandal is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC. Gambling problem, call 1-800-Gambler or visit fandal.com slash RG in Arizona 1-800 next step or text next step to 533-42 in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpeg.org slash chat in Indiana 1-800-9 with it and at Wyoming in Kansas 1-800-522-4700 or in Kansas KSGamblingHealth.com Louisiana is 1-877-770 stop in Maryland mdgamblinghealth.org in New York 1-877-8 hope and wire text open Y in West Virginia go to 1-800-gambler.net Pitching preview for this Monday main slate Julio Arias is the highest salary pitcher on Fandal. He comes in at a salary of $10,900 followed by Luis Castillo at 10-5. Max Scherzer's down to 10-1. Graham Ashcraft is 98. You got Logan Webb against the Dodgers at 96. You Darvish is 93. With Zach Gallin, Wade Miley, Bryce Elder and Stephen Matz as the others at $8,000 or higher. Now I do think there are a healthy number of guys you could put at the top for pitching for tonight. I feel good about going with Julio Arias personally. He's my favorite of the bunch, but there are some other routes you could take here for sure. Arias is facing the Giants who have a 99 WRC plus versus lefties on their current active roster since the start of last year with a 26% strikeout rate. And that to me is the key. A big boost facing a team with a strikeout rate that high. Now Arias has always been a good real life pitcher but that hasn't always crossed over to DFS because he wasn't a big strikeout guy. The strikeouts through two starts have been there so far this year. He has a new cutter that he has been throwing and it's not a big pitch for him. About a 12% usage rate so far. But on that pitch, he has a 28.6% whiff rate which is his highest of any pitch per baseball savant. So right now Arias's screen strike rate is decently low at 10.2%. But I do think there is room for upward movement if he gains confidence in that pitch and starts throwing it a bit more. Two really good starts for Arias so far. He has gone six innings in both, six strikeouts in both with two total earned runs. They did come against softer opponents and they were both at home but the Giants will whiff which gives Arias a very clear path upside here. I don't think it's bad if you wanna deviate because Arias is on the road, might have some regression in the strikeout mark based on the swing and strike rates but Arias is my top guy personally. I feel pretty good about him and will put him at the top of my list for today. The one guy I would consider potentially putting him above him, I think that in the same tier as Arias is Luis Castillo. Castillo's $10,500. Similar to where Arias he is on the road, he's also facing a mediocre offense with a decent strikeout rate. He's facing the Cubs, Castillo is. They have a 97 WRC plus against Arias, they 23% strikeout rate and that's a team that I think Castillo can probably handle. Castillo so far in his two starts is look great. He has allowed only three hits across 11 and two thirds innings, 12 strikeouts, two walks. What we've seen from Castillo in his first two starts is increased forcing fastball usage, a change he flashed toward the end of last year. His 48% usage on that fastball last week was his highest since July 14th. If we look at the nine start sample for Castillo since he started throwing that force in fastball more, he has a 3.03 skill interactive ERA with a 29% strikeout rate. Castillo went 99 pitches last time out. He is a bit of a psycho in that regard. He will go well above a hundred when he's fully stretched out which it kind of seems like he is right now. I have Castillo projected at 7.5 strikeouts which is a very good number and it's better than Arias. So I'm gonna put Castillo a bit lower because he has had some hard contact issues in this time with more forcing fastballs but both these guys to me are in the same tier. So to me, it's Arias one Castillo two but they're kind of a more of a 1A, 1B situation then I must have this guy at the top and I must have this guy ranked second. Other guys at $9,000 or lower, I think we need to rank exact gallon highest that's despite some struggles to open this year and despite the fact it is a good park for pitching for tonight in Arizona. In the two starts for gallon, he has gone 10 and two thirds innings with nine runs allowed, which is not ideal. He has 10 strikeouts compared to four walks. That's not great either but it's important to keep in mind that both those matches for gallon were very, very tough. One was on the road against the pod or both were on the road. One is against the Padres, one against the Dodgers. He gets the Brewers tonight who are a good offense. They have a 109 WRC plus against righties. So they're also good but they do have a 24% strikeout rate versus righties which does help things for gallon a decent amount. That is good for gallons upside even if the floor believes something to be desired. I don't see any issues with gallons velocity in those first two starts. He hasn't changed. He has changed his pitch mix a bit as cutter being more like a true slider this year than it was a cutter. I'll throw more change ups but I don't think those are bad alterations from what he was doing previously. So I think once we get gallon in a matchup with a non-lead offense, so probably be pretty good. I'm waiting to get him a ride here and see how it goes but I do want to make sure I'm lower on him than Arias and Castillo. I think that to me, it's Arias and Castillo in their own tier. I would probably go Scherzer over gallon as well but we'll talk more about Scherzer and things to watch. There are reasons why I'm not more itchy to buy low on him than I currently am. So again, Arias one, Castillo two, gallon the top value as a pitching options for today. Let's dig into the stacks and it does feel kind of bad to keep picking on Patrick Corbin because he's struggling and it feels bad to like pile on there but I just don't think we can avoid stacking against him until he gives us a reason not to do so. I'll be stacking against him tonight and that means stacking the angels here. And that's a tough thing for Corbin because he's had a pretty rough draw. Some tough opponents, the Braves, the Rays. Now the angels, that's a really rough draw to start the year. So he struggled but like that's not a fun way to go things. The angels, I think it's a bit underrated how good this team could be against lefties this year. They rebuilt their lineup and I think that they project as a team that will obliterate lefties this year. If you look at their current active roster, since the start of last year, they have a 128 WRC plus with a 208 ISO that is an absurd number, easily the best on the slate in both categories. When you have an offense with Shohei Otani, Mike Trout and Taylor Warden, you add in Hunter Ren for a brand injury, that can happen. Corbin in those first two starts, 5.08 skill interactive Yarae, 13% strikeout rates, 51% hard hit rates. I really don't think there's any need to overthink this. We should probably just go here and figure out the rest later on. So I think to me Corbin remains a key target for stacks and a key guy we can feel good about stacking against until we get an incentive not to do so. The big names here are obvious, talked about a lot of them earlier on but Lokenohopp is another guy we need to have on our radar. He has already hit three home runs so far this year. He hit for a ton of power across double A last year, puts the ball in the air, doesn't strike out, he'll slap some bags. So it is a tough adjustment to go from double A to the majors, but he hasn't looked overwhelmed so far. I think that's pretty impressive. His salary has risen, he's $2,900 for tonight but I think he needs to be firmly in the mix. If he starts again, he's a catcher so he may not but he should be in there. The angels have a lot of good teams, a lot of good contenders for this crown but make sure you have Lokenohopp in there if he does wind up being in the lineup for tonight. Our second stack is gonna head out to Coors Field. We got the Cardinals and the Rockies there. Steven Matz for the Cardinals. I like Matz, a decent amount. We'll talk about that in the things to watch section. Cardinals facing Armand Marquez and I do like Marquez. We talked about him plenty here on the show but I think the Cardinals are a good stack regardless. Marquez making his first Coors start this year but last week against the Dodgers on the road and let him three home runs. He hasn't been awful from a peripheral's perspective but he also has not been lights out and now he's facing a team where I think it kind of need to be lights out to shut them down in Denver. The Cardinals have a 119 WRC plus against Reides. They have a low strike hour which means they're gonna put the ball in play and that you can do damage with that alone at Coors Field. So no, Marquez is not a bad pitcher but he's also not an ace he's facing a very good offense at Coors Field where the temperature is high enough for us treated as mostly regular Coors night, 70 degrees at first pitch. That's enough to make the Cardinals a very good stack in my mind and I will be on them for tonight. Now the Cardinals, most of their studs are Reides are a Nato, Goltzman, et cetera. I do think we wanna get the lefties a bump up here because the ground body for Marquez does go down when he's facing lefty. So take your baseline against Reides and give a boost up to Brandon Donovan, Alec Burleson, Nolan Gorman, give them a boost up where they typically would be. You're not gonna prefer them over the righties but it does help them a healthy amount. I think Donovan specifically given the swing changes he has made, I think they're recently legit. So I do wanna go with him $3,700. I think that's a very fair number to get to him. Burleson I think his salary is pretty low. Yeah, 32 for Burleson as well. So both those guys to me deserve to be focal points within our Cardinal stacks for tonight. There are a decent number of contending teams for this third slot for stacking behind the Angels and the Cardinals. I have the Rockies on the other side of this game. I don't have them as the third stack but you've got them there as a consideration. You have the Royals against Andrew Heaney and his bad at ball issues. I think both those are very good stacks. I am gonna put the Mariners slightly above them though but put them in this third slot. So the Mariners my number three stack behind the Cardinals and the Angels for today. Mariners facing Drew Smiley in Chicago. Smiley is similar to Heaney in that he lets up a lot of dangerous bad at balls but with Smiley it comes a fewer strikeouts than what you get with Andrew Heaney which is a good thing for us in terms of stacking. Smiley in his first start kept his cutter usage low which is something we've seen him doing now across his past eight starts. In that time Smiley has a 19% strikeout rate while letting up a 45% fly ball rate. He's led up just six home runs in eight games which is not terrible but there have been some single game blow-ups. Smiley led up six home runs last week. He led up a seven run game against the Cardinals too. Now the Mariners are not Cardinals ask against lefties where the Cardinals are like world beaters against lefties but the Mariners are very good. They have a 119 WRC plus with a 195 ISO. I think that's good enough to get us on them here. So I'm gonna rank the Mariners third behind the Angels and Cardinals as a result but I think again they're a very good stack it's not quite on that level for today. The Mariners are also pretty righty heavy up right now which helps here. I know in the past they've had a lot of lefties but this year they definitely do skew more righty heavier than they had previously and those righties can bang lefties. Tailscar Hernandez has a 398 ISO against lefties. This is the start of last year. That's an insane number and Hernandez's salary for tonight is $2,800. Oh my goodness, give me all that. Even AJ Pollock is a 321. I don't mind saying Hagerty has a value of $2,100 if you want some playing. I think he said six and seventh against two lefties so far this year so if Hagerty gets in there he's a value but Tailscar is 28, Pollock's salary is 28 as well. You can stack the Mariners pretty easily and if you want more flexibility to stack the Angels or stack Coors Field I think the Mariners are a good outlet for doing so. Again, Hagerty an option there. If you really want to save some salary here in order to spend up elsewhere. Things to watch for today. Let's talk a bit of Max Scherzer. I don't feel a huge need to buy low on him for tonight. His velocity was better last time out but let up so much hard contact and issue that he had last year too. He's facing the Padres who are a low strikeout, high walk team. I do like buying low on guys who are struggling if I think that they will turn things around and Scherzer probably will eventually but I don't think this is the spot to do so. So long-term sure I'm receptive but for tonight probably not on Max Scherzer personally. As far as the Coors Field game I'm not as high in the Rockies as the Cardinals but they are in play for stacking. They're facing Steven Matz who did struggle in his first start this year despite getting some strikeouts. He's had some hard contact issues in the past and had some hard contact issues there as well. We saw Matt said pretty poor results last year too. I think he's better than that personally which is why I'm not higher on the Rockies but I think that they're viable here for sure. So the Rockies probably not my number four stack for today. The other alternative stack I mentioned was the Royals facing Andrew Heaney who gets lots of strikeouts but didn't get a ton of those strikeouts in his first start this year. Let's up a lot of hard contact and a lot of fly balls. The strikeout potential means the Royals could flop but they could also go nuts. And I'm fine with that variance if it comes to the upside. Edward Olivares, huge power against lefties. We know he won him in there. The one guy to be lower on here is Frommel Reyes because the strikes out a lot and facing a high strikeout guy that might be kind of dicey but there is big power there too. So totally justifiable. So to me highest on the Angels followed by the Cardinals and the Mariners but the Rockies and the Royals other teams I would consider in terms of stacks for tonight. Dinger calls for today. The boring one is the one we alluded to earlier on Teosca Hernandez facing a lefty with almost a 400 ISO since the start of last year. I'm not turning that down. So the boring one will be Teosca Hernandez against Drew Smiley. The fun one, I am gonna go with Logan Ohop. Not sure if he'll play because again he's a catcher but he's been half to a hot start this year facing Patrick Corbin. You can get him as long as like plus 950 to Homer at some sports books. So I think that qualifies as fun. If he doesn't play, I'll go Donovan on the Cardinals. So backup call is Brandon Donovan. I know it's cheap to say course to you but his odds are also pretty long for betting for tonight. So homerun calls, Teosca Hernandez and Logan Ohop officially. And then if Ohop does not play pivot over to Donovan as the second homerun call. That is all that we have here for today on the solo shop. But we have a full complement of shows across this week, Monday through Friday, breaking down MLB DFS. So make sure you're subscribed wherever you get your podcasts. And if you like what you hear, leave us a five star rating if you wanna watch again. We are available on the Fando YouTube page as well. If you've got any questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the Fando podcast network at Fando podcast. Wanna thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your MLB DFS lineups for Monday. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down Tuesday's slate. This has been the solo shot right here on the Fando podcast network.