 Hey everybody, what's going on? I am Greg Sussman joined today by Jim Sonis of FanDuel who's here to break down week 16 from a DFS perspective. What's happening, Jim? Yeah, it's a pretty interesting slate going on here, Greg, because we've got a couple of games that mean quite a bit, but most of those games are not on the main slate. So we're kind of trying to dig here to try to find teams with motivation and try to win in week 16, which is not the easiest task by any means, but still I think some pretty fun plays on the board. So I'm all right, how you doing? I'm doing well, man. We got championships to play for. We have a lot of money to play for this weekend and I need your help, so let's break it down. Let's begin with a team that has everything to play for. It's a playoff game this week between Dallas and Philly, and you, not surprisingly, are in on Dak Prescott and pairing them up with Michael Gallup. I struggled last week for Michael Gallup, but facing the Philly secondary, no one loses to the Philly secondary. Philly, Philly, indeed, Dak Prescott. Michael Gallup, your first stack this week. Yeah, right before we started recording, there was a report that apparently Dak Prescott has a messed up shoulder. So keep an eye on that throughout this week. If he's able to get into full practice on Friday, I think it is full steam ahead with this stack because he apparently played through that shoulder injury the entire second half on Sunday and didn't look that bad. So right now I feel pretty good about Dak, but it's worth keeping an eye on as week goes along. And this is a team, like you said, that has a lot on the line. They're facing the Philadelphia Eagles and that secondary has gotten torched pretty much all year long. Now the question here is do you go with Michael Gallup or do you go Amari Cooper? And I love Amari Cooper. He is an amazing talent. I think he's in a very good spot this week as well, but Michael Gallup is cheaper. He has $6,500. He leads the team in targets and air yards since their buy week. And he's $6,500 against this Eagles defense. So if I'm rolling out multiple tournament lines with Dak Prescott, I am going to make sure I get some Amari Cooper because the Cooper always, I think among all the receivers and the slate, is gonna be among the top guys from an upside perspective. Michael Gallup is a little bit cheaper. He has $6,500, helps offset the salary of Dak Prescott at least a little bit. And I think that's pretty attractive. Dak is $8,000. I want my quarterbacks to be in gains where there's something in the line that that is the case with Dak here. So I think that it makes a lot of sense to pair these two together in a game where they desperately need a win. Again, keep an eye on the injury report throughout this week. Make sure that Dak's shoulder is okay. But if it is, I think that he is arguably one of the best quarterbacks on this slate. And I want to pair him most often with Michael Gallup. Absolutely. As long as Dak Prescott's shoulder is okay. Pairing of Michael Gallup, one of his favorite receivers, obviously all season long, makes plenty of sense. He gets a beat up and brutal Eagle Secondary. Good spot here on Sunday for Dallas to get the job done. Up next, we go to Seattle, who was also playing for something here this week, trying to get that number one overall seed potentially in the NFC. Chris Carson, the Seattle defense, has been one of your favorite pairings this season. How come you're going back to the well against Arizona? Yeah, I definitely think you can go with the Seahawks passing game here. If you expect Collin Murray to put points in the board, which he could because he's been good against some good defense this year, specifically San Francisco and Seattle is a step below that. So there is a path to using the Seahawks passing offense, but there is a lot of safety in this Seahawks rushing offense because we know what they want to do. They want to run the football and they should be able to on Sunday. They are double digit favorites. The Cardinals are a bottom 10 team against the Rush this year based on number fires metrics. They're in 20th there. So bottom 12 team. I mean they should be able to run the ball efficiently and Chris Carson with no Rashad Penney is basically a different player. Last week, 76% of the snaps, he had 24 carries along with two targets and that workload goes up for Chris Carson whenever there is no Rashad Penney who will obviously not be playing this week yet. He is $8,200. I think that when you bake in the fact that Rashad Penney will not play, that's a very palatable salary for Chris Carson. The Seahawks defense is $4,400 and like I said, they haven't been great this year. They're ranked 14th against the pass, 13th overall based on number fires metrics. They've been very average and they have a lot of injuries right now but what we get here is them as 10 point favorites against a team that wants to throw the football and Kyler Murray I think his biggest fault this year as a quarterback has been a willingness to accept sacks behind a bad offensive line. So I think the upside for the Seahawks defense there, they've got a pretty good floor as well and if they do well, Chris Carson should do well also. So a good correlation here between Chris Carson and his defense and I think this is the safest way for getting exposure to the Seahawks team. For Arizona, the question becomes can they put points on the board? Russell Wilson is in a fantastic matchup here this week against the secondary for Arizona that hasn't been good either but if you don't think Arizona can hang in the game, we once again go back to Seattle's defense and we go back to Chris Carson. Rashad Penney is out which means Carson's gonna do what he does. He's 20 carries at least, 100 yards at least, one touchdown at least. Chris Carson set to dominate once again against Arizona on Sunday. Our next stack, Jim, brings us to the Miami Dolphins, a team that's played hard despite their record this year. We went to them last week, of course, against the New York Giants, didn't work out all too well but now facing Cincinnati, it fits Patrick and you're pairing them with your boy, a guy that's made a lot of money here over the last couple of weeks. Savante Parker, he's extended the contract, he's gotten paid and now let's see if he can get us paid this weekend. Yeah, he came back into a really good role last week, he was coming out of that concussion. You know, we didn't know early in the week if he was going to play but he did play and he played really well in that game with seven targets and a lot of those targets were downfield. Right, that's Patrick, he's very happy to feed his guys downfield and he's been feeding Devante Parker consistently since Preston Williams got hurt. If you exclude that game where Devante Parker left early with the concussion in the game since Preston Williams' injury, Parker has 25% of the overall targets which is very good but he also has 50% of the deep targets which is just a massive number especially for a guy on a team where they will throw deep and who has been good from a production perspective this year and he's been pulling in those deep targets as well and Parker because I don't think many people used him coming off that concussion, his salary has come back down to $6,900. That is a really good number for someone who has been as good as he has been this year and is getting the usage that Parker has gotten. Ryan Fitzpatrick, $7,400. He is kind of expensive given that there are other more viable quarterbacks who are not that far apart but to Fitzpatrick's credit, he's been very good recently. He has at least 30 rushing yards in three of the past four games and we've seen him chuck it deep and that is good for a quarterback as well. So I have a little bit of concern here given the Bengals defense has showed some life recently and we'll talk more about that in the next stack but I still think that it's justifiable to go at the Dolphins in tournaments. I think that Parker is a cash game option. I don't think Fitzpatrick is but I think that both these guys are options for cash games. This game features two defenses that are certainly not great even though the Bengals have been improving and it could shoot out. We've seen both these teams at least trying of late. So I am very okay with going at the Dolphins as long as it is not in a cash game setting because again, the Bengals defense has been a little bit more kicky recently. So I am okay with avoiding them in cash games. For tournaments, I think that Fitzpatrick and Parker do make a lot of sense. Vance Parker did step back into that monster role as Ryan Fitzpatrick's number one wide receiver. He's shown how talented he truly is this year all season long with Miami. Ryan Fitzpatrick will go to his favorite wide receiver repetitively or we hope on Sunday. So it's a good stack in a game where neither defense is really good which is why we also wanna go to Cincinnati and in particular Joe Mixing. Joe Mixing's actually been really good over the past month and we know the offensive line struggles. We know that Cincinnati's rarely in games but their defense, they've also kind of stepped up. Not saying they're good, but they've stepped up enough that Joe Mixing's been able to really help us fantasy owners but you also like their defense here. Well, you like Ryan Fitzpatrick and Devonte Parker and the Bengals defense. How does that work? That is the nature of Ryan Fitzpatrick. He can be, he can give it and he can take it the way in a hurry. And this Bengals defense as we alluded to before has been kind of interesting recently. I've had a lot of players facing them in DFS like William Darnold, Baker Mayfield and a lot of those guys have underperformed. Over the past five games, this defense has allowed 17, 16, 6, 21 and 28 points over their past five games. So from a point perspective, they've been good. Now they faced a lot of bad offenses in that time but Ryan Fitzpatrick can occasionally turn into a pumpkin as well. So I think that it's still worth noting that they've been pretty good and they are $3,800 against a quarterback who will occasionally turn the ball over. So I think that's why the Bengals defense is in play even while saying that I could also be okay with the Miami Dolphins offense. Joe Nixon shouldn't be as hard of a sell. He is $7,800 but his snap rate spiked back in week 10 when they turned things over to Ryan Finley. And since that time, Nixon has been awesome. He has averaged 21.7 carries and 2.8 targets per game. His efficiency has increased since Courtney Glenn came back to this team back in week 12. It's a four game sample. Nixon has actually been a very good rusher in those four games and he's gotten massive volume. When you put that up against the Dolphins defense that has been terrible all year long, their offense has been good, but the defense has definitely not taken a step forward. I think that that's really interesting. Joe Nixon is a cash game play at $7,800. I don't think this defense is because they are on the road. I believe that they're slight underdogs. I think they're a one point dog last time I looked and that's not what we want from a defense. But there is a path to a good game from this defense. So I like them for tournaments and I like Nixon for tournaments but I think he is also very much in play for cash games as well. In cash games, Nixon should get the job done but like you said, with Bangles defense, Ryan Fitzpatrick give it and take it. It's basically James Winston before he was James Winston. Ryan Fitzpatrick's been doing this a long time. You know what you're getting from Ryan Fitzpatrick? A gunslinging wheel and dealing son of a gun. That is Ryan Fitzpatrick and that's why we like him in DFS and the Bangles defense as well. Up next, we go to Atlanta and Devonte Freeman paired with the Falcons defense. Falcons are in a good spot and if you think they're going to dominate, well, put Devonte Freeman in there. You go to the Falcons defense just like we're doing with Cincinnati, just like we're doing with Seattle here, Jim. Yeah, they really are in a good spot. As you mentioned, it's actually been getting better too because this game opened with a six and a half point spread. It is now at seven points on Fandal's sports book and I don't think that's wrong. I don't think that's wrong by any means. This Falcons team, despite being out of the playoff hunt, has played hard recently and this Jaguars team outside of that late stretch against Oakland really has not. So I think it makes sense that they are heavy favorites here and that bodes well for Devonte Freeman Devonte Freeman did not do much in that game against San Francisco. So this is kind of gone overlooked but he did get a role change in week number 15. In that game Devonte Freeman played 79% of the snaps. That was his second highest mark of the entire season. If we look at Devonte Freeman since coming back from his ankle injury or from his injury, his foot injury, he's out at 15.3 carries and 4.0 targets per game. His snap rate has been at least 66.7% in all of those games as well and that's good when he's $6,200 at home as a seven point favorite against a defense that has kind of given up hope. They ranked 30th against the rush right now based on number fire schedule, adjusted metrics. So great matchup at home, pretty big favorite, not a bad role. I kind of think Devonte Freeman makes a lot of sense and if Devonte Freeman does well this defense should do well also. They've had some blips on the radar but I think overall they've definitely carried over most of the gains that they made coming out of their buy with that change in the play callers on the defensive side of things. They've still been pretty good as we saw against that 49ers offense. So I think even though the Falcons are $4,400, I am still interested in them at home against Jacksonville. Gardner-Minshew doesn't tend to throw a deep ball that often that should increase the floor for this defense and we also know that the Jaguars can occasionally give up on games and nail it in and turn the ball over too. So I think that this Terry makes a lot of sense I think that Freeman is a more attractive part of this one but if he does well, the defense should do well too. So I think it makes sense to pair them together in tournaments as well. There you go, the options for this stack. Endless cash games, tournaments, do what you gotta do. Devonte Freeman and the Falcons in a good spot like Jim mentioned with a spread according to the Fandal Sportsbook has gone up over the last couple of days. The Falcons have played better having the big win in San Francisco last week. You know, this may be the end of the Dan Quinn era but his team is playing hard for him and that includes Devonte Freeman who even found the end zone a couple of weeks back. How about that? Devonte Freeman and the Falcons defense, a fine stack choice on Sunday. Our final stack is a game that, well, doesn't really mean much about anything. It's Denver and the Detroit Lions and you're going with the home team. It's Drew Locke, pair with his buddy, Cortland Sutton. It didn't work in the snow in Kansas City. Why will it work now at home against Detroit? Because they're at home against Detroit. I always wanna go at the Detroit Lions defense with the way they played, especially since the Quandre digs trade. Defense has been really bad. They now ranked 26th against the pass for the full season based on number of fires metrics and yeah, Drew Locke was not good against Kansas City and I'm not gonna blame that on the snow because Patrick Mahomes played really well in that game. Drew Locke does not get a pass because of the snow there but he can get a pass because of the matchup. The Chiefs actually ranked fifth against the passes year based on number of fires metrics whereas again, the Lions are 26. So you put Locke at home against a bad pass defense and good things can happen. He tore up the Texans. The Texans have been a better pass defense this year than the Lions. They ranked 22nd against the pass. So I think that Drew Locke, his efficiency is not gonna be where it was, those first two games against the Chargers and the Texans, but it doesn't have to be. He has still been an improvement over Brandon Allen and Joe Flacco, which is great for Cortland Sutton. He has $7,100. He has had 70 or more receiving yards in two of Locke's three starts so far this year despite facing Casey Hayward in one of those games which makes me feel better about him seeing Darius Slay this weekend. Even in that game against Hayward, Sutton was really good. He had a couple of touchdowns there and the three games Locke has started. We had see Sutton with 24% of the team's overall targets and 33% of the deep targets. So he's getting a lot of work. He's getting high leverage work. He is converting that into yardage. I think that bodes well for him here at $7,100 in a spot where I wouldn't expect all that many people to go his way given how bad the total is for this game. I think that should help us get Drew Locke and Cortland Sutton at a bit lower ownership and given what they showed those first two games I am inclined to take advantage of that. Locke has been a definitive upgrade over the other guys a quarterback here for the Broncos. That's good for Sutton, but it's also good for Drew Locke in a plus matchup at home. So disappointing output last week can't make too many excuses without an outside of the matchup but it's a much better spot this time and I wanna go back to Locke and Sutton with that situation being a lot better. The weather's certainly gonna be better. The defense certainly gonna be worse. That's what's good for Denver and Drew Locke and Cortland Sutton. Hopefully taking advantage of Detroit's week, week secondary, we've taken advantage of them before. We're in a good spot here this week and you're right, not a lot of people are gonna go there. So in the tournament, it's sneaky and hopefully productive for you in the game. Not a lot of people are going to be targeting. Drew Locke and Cortland Sutton are final stack here of the week. Not a final time we're talking DFS. We're gonna do it again tomorrow with some of the undervalued and overlooked players for this week. Wanna get a preview here, Jim? Yeah, it's gonna be interesting for sure but I think that there is a very interesting wide receiver in Christian Kirk who has not been that kind to us recently but Greg, we're gonna go back to the well tomorrow. Why not give it one more try once again? Why not one more time with Christian Kirk? For Jimmy Saunders, I am Greg Sussman. Thanks so much for watching the Fandal Hurry Up. Have a great night and we'll see you back here tomorrow.