 The Global Cyber Threat Environment, Module 4 Understanding the Russian Mindset Objectives Once you have completed the readings, lecture, activity, and assessment, you will be able to describe how Russia's vast open landmass and few natural defenses have affected Russia's strategic development, describe the important historical differences between Western development and Russia's development, and how these differences contributed to the adversarial relationship that exists today between the two. Welcome to Global Cyber Threat Environment, Module 4. The title of this module is Understanding the Russian Mindset and will be given by our guest lecturer, Dr. Hubert Van Thul. Dr. Van Thul is a professor and former chair of the History Department at Augusta University. Originally from the Netherlands, Dr. Van Thul completed his BA from the University of Montevallo and his JD from Duke University and his PhD from Texas A&M University. He is the author of five books on various aspects of military history and his current interests include the Versailles negotiations of 1919, Irish studies, and the history of modern Russia. Almost 80 years ago, Winston Churchill described Russia as a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. Well, it may not be quite as bad as that, but for many of us in the West, particularly in the U.S., the actions of Russia sometimes seem very difficult for us to understand. What I am going to do is to explain to you the basis of Russian strategy and then give you some explanations of why that strategy is the way it is. Here is the basic statement. Russia has what I call an offensive-defensive mentality. It engages in offensive operations, whether it's with tanks or through cyberattacks, in order to improve its defensive position. What I would like to begin with is to give you four major considerations why the Russian way of thinking is this particular way. The first of these major considerations is the military geography of Russia. Russia is mostly a flat, plain, hence it has relatively indefensible borders. We are blessed with two large oceans, which is why there was no successful attack on the continental United States between the War of 1812 and 9-11. Now many people will tell you that Russia benefits militarily from the harshness of its winters, but that is a much overstated factor. Because if Russia has to rely on its climate for defense, that means the war is already taking place in Russia and it is just as cold on the Russian side of the front as it is on the invaders. While part of its military geography, Russia has engaged ever since the 14th century in a struggle to control its borderlands. The Russians have had to wage war against invading Mongols and Turks, coming from the southeast and the south, and from the west the Germans, the Poles, the Swedes, and the Lithuanians. I would like to give you one example of this that is very relevant to modern American strategy. The Baltic region, composed today of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, was known back in the Middle Ages as Livonia. In the 16th century, the infamous Russian Tsar Ivan the Terrible fought a 20-year war to try to conquer Livonia and failed. In the early 1700s, Peter the Great managed to annex the entire region into the Russian Empire. In 1918, as World War I ended, these three countries managed to break out of the Russian Empire. In 1940, however, they were re-annexed by Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin. They were then taken away from the Soviet Union in 1941 by the invading Nazis, but in 1945 Stalin once again reconquered the Baltic region. In 1991, as the Soviet Union collapsed, the independence of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia was recognized once again. Why is this relevant to us? Because all three of these countries are now members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, which means, should Russia once again attempt to extend its influence in this borderland, the United States and other NATO members would be immediately involved. The second major consideration to explain Russia's outlook is its military history. In every century in modern and medieval history, Russia has faced invasions. I have already told you about a number of these. The most important one that has influenced Russian thinking was the conflict that they know as the Great Patriotic War. This was part of World War II. Consider for a moment how much World War II means to us, and how much emphasis there is in the American way of thinking on Pearl Harbor and avoiding another Pearl Harbor. We lost about 3,000 people in Pearl Harbor. The Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union in the Great Patriotic War cost the Soviet Union some 26 million lives, most of them Russian. This of course is war on a scale which we are not familiar with, and it shapes every aspect of the Russian outlook on the rest of the world, right up to today. A third major consideration is that Russia in many ways is separate from the West. Yes, it is a Western country. Peter the Great insisted that it become Western, but it is separated in a couple of different ways. First, the historical development of Russia is different from other Western countries. For example, two events that have profoundly influenced our way of thinking, the Reformation and the Enlightenment, did not come to Russia at all or came in a very different way than it did in the rest of the Western world. In addition, Russia is isolated from the West. Part of that is geographical. It historically was a difficult country to travel to, but also political. In the Soviet era, especially during the Cold War, it was exceedingly difficult for Westerners to gain access to much of Russia. The fourth major consideration, Russia has a long-standing hostility or at the very least suspicion toward the rest of the West, and I will give you two examples of this. During the Cold War, many Americans were convinced that the Soviet Union was going to attack us someday. But guess what? The Soviets were even more firmly convinced that we were going to attack them. Here is the evidence of that. The KGB, which was then the main Soviet security and espionage service, drove its agents in the United States absolutely nuts by demanding that they discover the exact date that the United States was planning to attack. These spies, of course, did their best to convince their masters in Moscow that there was no such date, but right up to the end, the KGB kept asking this question. Another example, when I was in Russia, I discovered that there was a significant conspiracy theory going around, that the United States was going to annex the Far East, the Russian Far East, which is centered on the port city of Vladivostok. I have no idea why we would want to do this, but of course, a conspiracy theory does not need a reason for it. In addition to these four major considerations, there are a few other things that you need to keep in mind when you are interpreting the Russian way of thinking. First of all, decentralization has been a disaster in much of Russian history. In the 1600s, in the early 20th century and the late 20th century, the collapse of Russian central government led to great suffering all throughout the country. Why do I mention this? Because it explains why so many Russians, ordinary Russians, prefer to have a strong central leadership. This is not irrational, and of course the current Russian leadership is taking significant advantage of this attitude. A second thing you need to keep in mind is the influence of the Russian Orthodox Church. Russia is essentially a one-church country, so what this Church has said and thought over the centuries is pretty important in forming the Russian way of thinking, and a couple of things that the Church has left behind. First, Russians tend to have a rather pessimistic view of human nature and its value, and many Russians have explained to me that that is why Russians have such a high tolerance of loss of life, be it in war or peacetime. Secondly, it has given Russia a somewhat messianic view of its country. It is not for nothing that the Russian national anthem contains the phrases, Holy Nation and Protected by God. To be fair to the Russians, they are not the only nation that thinks that God have given them a special role in world affairs. Thirdly, Russia is highly prone to ethnic tensions. Since the time of Peter the Great, so more than 300 years ago, only about 50% of Russia is composed of ethnic Russians. This creates frictions, and it also creates a tendency to try to impulse fairly strict security measures to keep those tensions from boiling over. In conclusion, I would like to leave you with two things. First, an illustration of the national attitude. In 1812, the French Emperor Napoleon invaded Russia. We all know, of course, that he was defeated. A lesser known story is that when some of his officers arrived at the mansion of the governor of Moscow province, they did not find a mansion at all. What they found was a burned up pile of rubble and ashes, and stuck to that pile was a letter from the governor of Moscow to the French, in which he informed them, this is all you will ever have of Russia. He had burned his own estate rather than let the French have it. Secondly, and finally, I began by talking about the offensive, defensive mentality of Russia, maintaining the offense to protect its defenses. Russia engages in its offensive behavior precisely to avoid disasters of this kind. Thank you. Quiz question one, true or false? Russia's desire for land and concept of the near abroad was mostly a result of its greedy insatiable leaders. A, true, B, false? The answer is B, false. Quiz question two, true or false? The Reformation and the Enlightenment affected the historical development of Russia and the West in decidedly similar ways. A, true, B, false? The answer is B, false. Activity using websites like the CIA's World Factbook, build a presentation about modern day Russia, include such facts as population, breakdown of ethnicities, and GDP. What industries and natural resources are most prominent in Russia's economy? Who are its largest trading partners? What type of government does Russia have? Who are the country's primary political power brokers? Include your assessment of what the future holds for Russia. Do you believe that Russia's current political system will continue to exist indefinitely? Or is the government weak and susceptible to revolution?