 Okay, we have our full complement of panelists, so let's get underway without further ado. My name is Richard Downey. I'm Deputy Director with the Africa Programme here. Welcome to the second panel on the Nigerian security situation around the elections. The focus of this second panel is really to hear from some of the prominent civil society leaders in Nigeria who we've invited over to Washington and to hear about some of the grassroots efforts underway to prevent or militate against electoral violence during the run-up to the polls, during the polling itself, and also in a very high-risk period in the immediate aftermath of polling. So we're going to hear some analysis from our guests about specific flashpoint regions of the country. Also have them flag some of the risk factors around the planning and execution of the elections. We also want to hear how they view the roles and responsibilities of some of the other key actors who have a role in providing peaceful, secure environment for these elections, including the federal government, state and local governments, the security forces of the state, political parties, their candidates and the media. Several of our panelists spoke to those points as well. We have a great set of panelists. You have their bios, so I won't go through them, but just suffice to say we'll start this morning with Chinedo Nwagu, a Buja-based program manager of the Clean Foundation, an NGO working to promote public safety, security and accessible justice. Chon Bagu, we'll go next. He's a Nigeria country director of Search for Common Ground, working to end conflict and build sustainable peace in Nigeria. Awal Ibrahim Musa, aka Raf Samjani, as you'll see from his bio, wears many, many hats, but for the purposes of this morning, he's executive director of the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Center, SISLAC, working to strengthen links between African civil society and legislatures. Finally, on my immediate right, we'll hear from Minemo Samyama, who's a country director of Stakeholder Democracy Network, which is an international NGO working on governance, environmental and security dynamics in the Niger Delta. I've asked all of our guests to speak just for 10 minutes or so. Our time has compressed somewhat, and we want to allow plenty of time for interaction with the audience. So, let's start with Chinedo. Over to you. Thank you very much. Thanks so much. I would want to say a big thank you to the organizers, and then good morning, or what is it, afternoon? It's almost five o'clock in Nigeria now, so good afternoon, friends, colleagues. There's a saying in my place, the Igbo people of the Southeast Nigeria, that Okama Kachik, Eugini, before Chijie, and I'll translate. It means it's better to look for the black goats in the afternoon or when it's still daytime, before night comes, and then it disappears with the times. And I think that's where we are in Nigeria now. The 2015 elections is just seven months away, and we have an opportunity to find the black goats while it is still daytime. For me, it's a great year with a great opportunity, and I would want to, we've heard the first panel talk about the security challenges, and for us, the idea basically is to put on the table some ideas we think might serve as mitigating factors to deal with some of the threats that have been identified. I've tried to structure some of these things for what the federal government would do, what INEC should do, what the National Assembly and State Government, International Community and Civil Society, and I'll try and stick to that. I think I should start with, well, a bit of the overflow issue of the insurgency. And I would not belive it too much. Like it's been said in the first panel, it is a national threat. Those of us that live in Abuja have had the experience of sending messages to those in Midugri about the fortnight and saying, sorry, we heard there were fresh attacks. I hope you and your family are safe. And then two weeks after the same people are sending messages to you, sorry, we heard there were attacks in Abuja. I hope yourself and your family are safe. So it's not just limited to a particular section of people. The threat affects every single one of us. And it's something we should deal with going into 2015. For those of us that are from Southern Nigeria that are still, you know, perhaps consoling ourselves that it's another problem. It's not. We've heard of arrests in Abuja State. We've heard of, well, a failed bomb attempt in Oweri. And then Lagos, there's been a buzz or two. In fact, there's a recent video claiming that, you know, the Lagos incident was related to it. So the problem is spreading. And we had a chance to contain it a few years ago. We didn't. We still have a chance to contain it now before we go into the 2015 elections. And like Gibo said earlier, the challenges that for 2015 elections, the security conditions are quite exceptional, like he mentioned. And so it's not like the 2011 elections. And for 2011 elections, we got it right, but we didn't actually. We made improvements on our previous elections. It was better than 2007, 2003, and definitely 1999. But for 2015, we can't just afford to get it right, to just make improvements. We should get it right because the times are peculiar. And the demands for these elections are quite different from everything we've had before. And one of the ways we could start perhaps taking steps forward would be to prosecute electoral offenders. As long as impunity continues to thrive, as long as there are no consequences for misconduct, people would continue to do all manner of things and get away with it. And yes, INEC has, you know, said it's prosecuting a few people. But the question is, who are these people? The old man in the village who perhaps registered twice, has son-in-law, you know, who did the same thing. We need them to fry the big fish. That's the best way of sending a message across to all that are involved that were serious about not condoning such things in our policy. I think also part of what has been thrown up by the insurgency is the fact that the number of internally displaced persons in Nigeria is quite alarming. And if something, if it continues at this rate, we would overwhelm Cameroon Nijeshad. And if it moves down south, Bennett, Ghana and the rest of them might also go. UN Office for Humanitarian Affairs recently released a report that put the figures at 15.5 million of persons affected by the crisis in Northern Nigeria. The people in the internally displaced persons are about 650,000. Now, that's significant. How we manage that going into the 25th elections also would impact on the elections because whether you like it or not, if we don't take care of their welfare, they will feel disconnected from the society and if they feel disconnected from the society, they provide a ready ground for recruitment. So we must be able to bridge that gap and stop that from happening. Also something I was mentioned earlier, I think it's the proliferation of small arms. We have arms everywhere. It's just everywhere. We have people who shouldn't have it. Having this conversation in America is quite interesting. Anyway, I think it's something we should deal with and I'll put it in context for you. Yes, like was said in the first panel, after the kitty election, there was no incident. Good and well. Same could be said about a do-and-do elections. But we were in those states after the elections. The morning's wedding results were announced. People shot in the air in celebration. And the question is, those arms were in the states the day before. What if the elections had gone the other way? What would those same guns that were being shot in jubilation be used for? And so we should take that into consideration going to 2015 if we don't mop up the small arms in the states and perhaps tighten our borders a little bit. We would have problems in our hands. Moving on to perhaps INEC, the equity state, the equity issue has come up several years. And yes, we applaud them for equity. They got a few things right in equity, not just because there was 20,000 police officers, not because the agencies coordinated themselves. All of that played an important part. But I think the most important thing is INEC was able to get its act together somewhat. And I would give you an example. In the do-and-do election, we were there also. The state capital, Akure, by 2 o'clock in some polling units, materials had not arrived. And if it's a place where the opposition, a place that's a stronghold for a particular candidate, the impression people get is they have refused to give us materials so they could undermine their elections here. And when you have that happening in different locations, it creates potential for conflict. But that didn't happen in equity. So materials arrived on time. The INEC staff, they were trained properly. So you didn't have all the logistic challenges that you had had in eight previous elections before equity. Equity is the ninth staggered election we've had since 2011. Oshun, which is happening next month, August 9th, will be the 10th. So we've had several rehearsals. They seem to have corrected it in equity. We're hoping they would get it right again in Oshun, not just so we can pat ourselves on the back, but because he sends a message to the populace that, yes, we can manage the 2015 elections. And that's more those of confidence is imperative for 1,000 whatever tensions or whatever prehensions people have going into the 2015 elections. National Assembly, I will just drop this and I'm sure Raf Sanjani will touch on it. The electoral act still needs to be tidied up before the elections. And also we need to see increased supervision of security spending for elections. But let me not overflog those issues. Moving down to the states, something interesting we found out is why historically in Nigeria conflict is usually centered around presidential and perhaps gubernatorial elections. But that seems to be changing for 2015. I'm not saying the tension wouldn't be there for the presidential. Certainly it's still there. But for 2015 election, a lot of tension from our own findings also going around the states where governors have served out two terms and are due for retirement. Oh well, they're due to leave office. And it seems that their retirement plan is to move to the Senate. So the governor is leaving the state house and wants to move to the Senate. And that means he has to unseat a serving senator without necessarily giving the person the key to the government house. And so this is playing out in several states. A quibomb, you know, Abya state and all the rest of them. Now while that on the surface doesn't look like oh it's not a big deal, the governor can do that. When you go further down, what you find out is within every state there are three senatorial districts. Now we've had 1999 to 2007, you know, in Nigeria somehow we count, we believe some everybody should be in office for eight years. So they count 1999 to 2007 and in 2007 to 2015. So in most states, each of the, each senatorial district has had a chance of producing a governor. So for example, in Abya state, the center, I'm just giving an example. So Abya senatorial district, Abya central district has produced a governor. The southern senatorial district has produced a governor and now the northern senatorial district is saying it's our turn. So when you take this tension and add that of the governor wanting to retire to the Senate without necessarily moving the Senate or to the government house and it becomes a clash then you have a particularly volatile issue on your hand. And we're seeing that play out in several states, not just one or two. You know, and I think it's something we should look at managing properly within the states. Also, in terms of intrapati politics, we heard in the first session that for the first time we are having a major opposition. So the competition is steeped both at the federal level and at the state level. And we are seeing defections and counter defections within the states. Those state house of assembly is having a crisis now because of such issues. So unless we're able to deal with that at the state level it becomes a problem. My time is almost up. There's also the issue of vigilante groups. A lot of states, Nigeria has not formally adopted state policing, but a lot of states are just recruiting vigilante groups. They are untrained, they are armed. There are no guidelines governing their conduct and unless we're able to deal with that and create a regulatory framework for them would possibly have states that have armed militia going into 2015 elections. Trying to tidy things up, I would just touch on two things. First is the opportunities are still there. If we are going to prosecute electoral offenders and also deal with a lot of sacred challenges we'll have and we must deal with electoral justice which means our courts will be functioning and then we must continue to invest in the security and justice sector reforms. Unfortunately, given the big scenario we have in Nigeria and the problems we don't see commensurate funding or attention going in those directions. So it's a bit of an irony that yes we recognize that the injustice issues are there, the justice crisis is there, the security crisis is there but then the justice sector and security sector reforms are somebody else's deal with those ones. Now lastly civil society engagement. It's important we continue to have conversations like this. My organization for example does an election, free election security analysis. Basically looking at across the states and looking at what are the issues and bringing these things to public light so that we can have conversations about them going forward. And I think it's a kind of conversation we need to have going forward until 2015 elections because it helps in creating civic awareness and letting people know what the real issues are because a lot of things get swept under the carpet with all the drama happening in the country. So it's important we continue to have that civic engagement and have civil society engage both the secret agencies and the government. I would want to sum up by using a saying one sum up from my place that and I think Cheney Chavain in his last book there was a country quoted it that unless we know where the rain started beating us it would be very difficult to realize when we get dry. I think pretty much Nigeria knows where the rain started and I'm hoping we'll be dry soon. Thank you very much. Thank you very much Cheney. Thank you. Can I return next to Charm please for his remarks? Thank you. Let me just make some comments about the context. I think Jibo identified about three security threats to Nigeria which is a banditry in the northwest, Boko Haram in the northeast and the national violence in North Central. There is a fourth and a fifth one. I think that there is the whole issue of Fulani in Nigeria. Most of the attacks in the North Central area and part of the North are usually said to be done by headsmen and this idea is that these headsmen have become a target and I'm saying that the Fulani are in the whole of West Africa and part of Central Africa and they are massively deployed in Nigeria and something very serious happened in the first week of April. The federal government sent troops to attack Fulani settlements in four states. In Plato State, in Keduna, Southern Keduna in Nasra State and in Beno State. Now, no justification, we just assumed that they are supposed to be the people attacking communities. No process, no legal or any other process was undertaken to identify this and we found that soldiers just went to communities and were asking, are you Fulani? We are Fulani, they kill you. This is the government. And I'm saying that Boko Haram will be a child's play if the present threat faced by Fulani is pushed further in the sense that the Fulani are suffering from cattle theft, they are suffering from inter-communal attacks and now more and more they are losing their cattle and therefore are being left in a situation of desperation to defend their way of life. And I'm saying that if something is not done very urgently, what this will mean is that the new Boko Haram is being created which will have to fight across Central and Northern Nigeria for their life. I think that this is very important. The second one, of course, is the issue of the Niger Delta. I will leave most of it to Mr. Senyama because he will do more justice to it because of the fact that there is likely to be an end to the Amnesty program in the Niger Delta. And now with 2015, we see an increasing emergence of call groups. These call groups are aming and they are sponsored by politicians. I suspect that the situation we are facing may be like 2003 when these militants became really were supported by politicians to become a major threat to Nigerian security. I think it is important to keep that in the public view because otherwise we will be taken by surprise. The second point I think is I don't accept the claim that Nigeria will never collapse. I think that we are giving much to fate. I think that from what is happening we have never had a situation as bad as we have today because when you go to rural Nigeria they simply do not believe that the government exists or it has anything to do with them. Most people in the north is in Central Nigeria most of the north as I know it and even in the Niger Delta don't feel the presence of government. We cannot say that we are safe when for the past three months Boko Haram has just been killing people on a daily basis and there is no response. There is simply no response as far as the people in the northeast, in southern Borno and northern parts of Adamawa they do not see the security forces they have not felt their impact and the issue is who are these guys who are bombing other cities in Nigeria? Are they Boko Haram or something else? We just assume that they are Boko Haram and yet we know that Boko Haram has been cornered on the corridor to the Kemerunia mountains so who are these guys who are exploding these IEDs? I have not had any credible analysis to show me who they are and what are their motivations? When we just say they are Boko Haram it can mean anything is it urban cells of Boko Haram that are doing this or who? And therefore we still are waiting for something to happen because we don't even understand why they are bombing particular places and who is behind them and I think that that is important because how do we know that they could not be used against the elections? Now, as such for Common Ground we have been engaged in both the Niger Delta we were engaged with the Amnesty Program from the beginning then we moved into work from what we call reintegration of ex militants from the community point of view and this was to build capacity at the community level to be able to receive ex militants on their own terms because the government's approach was simply a paying system to ex militants which was becoming very resentful for members of communities who thought that some of these guys why should they be paid when they have done a lot of damage to their communities and that program had been very well implemented and received by the communities because the communities were going to acquire some level of power to manage their own space now for the elections we have a second phase of that program and we are covering four states in the Niger Delta I think the importance of that is that we don't think that what is happening at the top where politicians government security people are busy discussing issues that they do nothing about that what will save Nigeria and save these elections if communities are able to manage their space effectively in a way that they can prevent abuses of the electoral process and reduce the violence we've created democracy spaces at this community where they discuss issues we've created a media system in this community where they can discuss and share information and we hope that we will use it in the elections to strengthen these community structures to be able to respond to be able to repel violence to be able to refuse abuses I think that this is very very important for us particular in the Niger Delta because the Niger Delta has had a history of violence of abuses of the electoral process and if we can reduce that we think that the election will become more credible in the north central in the north central Nigeria we've also been working on that because there have been violence in Platos there for 14 years which means that communities are beginning to get used to violence and therefore will not be surprised if the elections are characterized by violence or I think that people should not give up because it is critical to have some changes which will give people some hope and so we are implementing what we call both a security and a peace architecture both at the state level and at the local level where we are integrating both security and traditional security systems which mean that we are bringing the military the police to work with communities to identify early warning system to identify mechanism to respond to violence and to respond to security. In the north east we've just opened an office and we are starting to do an assessment of the impact of the violence on livelihoods on groups, on families and we are looking at this is a great opportunity we've been working before in the north east looking at security violence or reducing human rights abuses by security forces we've seen that we've got quite some support and cooperation by the security forces and we are taking it to the community level to make sure that there is some level of understanding between the security forces and communities and that communities know where to report incidences of human rights now we are moving into the north east proper which is Medugri and we are trying to cover the state where there is emergency and our hope is that is to really first and foremost to give voice to communities because so far the only voices you hear are voices of government and that of Boko Haram and we think that that is not good enough the people, particularly after the Chibok girls, we've seen some steering by communities trying to express their views about the situation and trying to organize the Nigerian security force cannot cover the whole country cannot provide security all over Nigeria as presently which means there is need to give some role to communities themselves because what the state has concentrated is to create physical security roadblocks roadblocks have been totally useless they have not provided any security to anybody apart from violating the dignity and the self respect of people and we are saying that why can't we provide communities to create a security system that they have a role to play because we believe that that would give them additional psychological sense of safety if they have a hand in securing their environment I think that that is critical and to conclude let me say that to secure the elections one, Aenec must become consistent we've known that we know what he does because some of the success in the Kitanko were they delivered or by accident why did he decide that there will be no election in the north in the first place, what were the analysis how did he come back by that now he has changed which means integrity is at stake the chairman is not being consistent we want to know why did he take that decision and I think that to secure the election is Aenec must be seen to be a partner to the citizens to secure and make sure that the elections are free and fair unless that consistency is maintained people are going to assume that he will allow the PDP to steer the elections it's very very important the second issue is there have always been the tendency when the elections are coming people say people will attack there will be violence and therefore use it as an excuse to militarize the elections and militarizing the elections means you provide an opportunity for the military and police forces to participate in stealing the vote or undermining the opposition from its activities we must be careful in encouraging that you know there is violence therefore militarize the whole place bring out tanks I don't see the problem of the Nigerian election is no more about snatching ballot boxes it's about changing the figures and as a civil society person when I am observing the election I want to have access to the coalition center the military and police will block me and they will change the figures there and manipulate the system this is what we should be dealing with it is not about snatching ballot boxes it has gone beyond that now the other third issue is the whole issue that a lot of people have been displaced both in the north east and north central Nigeria will they vote where will they vote INEC is here to give us an answer to that these people want to participate in the election but they are not where they register for the elections so what is going to happen to them we've seen the role of IDPs in the violence in plateau state people who left plateau state to Bauchi are the main people who come to attack because they have a grievance and I am saying that if you have a lot of IDPs who are not able to vote how do we guarantee that they will stay peaceful how do we guarantee that they will accept what is happening and then the last issue let me just say that a lot of arms are entering Nigeria nobody has talked about it these arms are not coming for hunting they are not going to use it to just hunt bats and bush meat these guns are going to be used against other Nigerians because of the elections and we have to do something to make sure that these arms are not used and how do you make sure we've always blamed the youth the youth are not in the politics because the age the age barrier has made sure that youth cannot even get into the politics properly so what do you want them to do they have no jobs they have no hope and yet we blame them that they are the ones who are doing the bidding of the politicians so instead of blaming the youth we should look for those who are responsible for what the youth are doing thank you let's turn now to Afsa Jani let me join others to also thank the organizers even though my coming was like a crash one because I was not originally supposed to be here somebody was supposed to be here and for some logistic and with that issue he was not able to make it and I was in the years for other things we just launched a report on bidding on peacekeeping operation the role of the military and army in terms of human rights abuses while in the peacekeeping so I got know about the program and I was contacted to also be part of this program anyway thank you for inviting me well in addition to what has been said General Tombago as we call him has already provided the space for me so what I would do is just to add a little as a matter of fact there are many threats that we are actually facing one of the threats that I think we should be thinking about we should be worried about is also the absence of electoral framework that will guarantee people's you know bought as we are today now we did not even have the Electoral Act amendment passed by the National Assembly you have how many months the election so with what are you going to even do the election the National Assembly has not done the amendment and even after they do that we know how the previous election happens you know money was not even provided by the National Assembly we have to you know and since like in particular how to address series of press conferences you know all the National Assembly and they comment to provide resources for annex to conduct you know election so you have a situation where if the citizens did not have electoral framework that they can believe in that they can actually trust on that can also lead to threat to you know violence you know in Nigeria so I think we should also be concerned with that the second you know threat that I think is very very important is the artificial poverty disempowerment you know by the politicians on the youths a lot of Nigerians youths whether in the north, whether where there is Boko Haram where there is you know Boko Haram you have army of youth that are completely unemployed that are just waiting for anybody to give them as small as maybe two dollars to kill if you give them and you say this is what I want they are going to do that and nobody is doing anything to you know engage them in a positive way politicians and some of the reckless government official they are ready to hire them to give them you know substance that can make them intoxicated and then they go and do all sorts of things we have them plenty and nobody is actually doing anything even within the political parties that are supposed to do voter education and political parties are not engaging on the electorate to educate them even on the you know on the election and also the need to have peaceful you know election for me that is also a big problem another area which I think you know it is also a threat to the 2015 is the absent of level playing field or rather imposition from the political parties across you know you have this good fatherism that is very very strong is still happening and it will happen already some parties have determined who is going to be the governor who is going to be the House of Rep who is going to be the senator that is also a serious problem leading to the bigger you know trouble I will not touch on those other areas that people have talked about another area which I think is also a serious problem is militarization of the election the whole Nigerian security policies put together police, army, customs and all of them there are no more than 1.5 and you have you have over at least 160 million Nigerians so in response to the Honorable Commissioner that he said that it is the large number of security that will guarantee maybe you know non-balance of election I wonder if you have you know put together all the security policies custom, police, army immigration all of them there are not more than 1.5 million and you have 160 million how are you going to apply that I don't think that is going to be you know a solution so over relying on the security agencies to do that I don't think it is enough and it will give some honest you know you know voters that will want to come and do that because when you see you know the presence of the police the army like they have done in Hikiti was helicopter they had helicopter you know so it is a big problem so what did we what are we proposing for us you know in civil society and in SISLAG in particular we think it is important in response to the 2015 we should you know be proactive in terms of early warning you know response mechanism in most times it is only one it happens then you see us during the last minutes thing no proper planning no proper you know mechanism to ensure that you know we respond to the issues before they get you know bad I think also we need to also ensure that we have a network or sub network of civil society for electoral security I think the election is too important just to leave it to the security agencies especially when you do not have well you know and much of them not you know really trained you know time to clean that and consistent on training the security personnel for election I think another you know intervention which we think will be very very useful is the democratic you know oversight of the security through accountability mechanism all those you know security you know agency I mean agent that were involved in rigging or aid rigging or intimidating or you know using you know to escort a particular you know candidate or a particular politician I think they should be you know responsible for the act they have done because in so doing that they are also creating a bridge of security I can understand why if you are contesting election with other people then 10 policemen will be following you with armed with everything already are intimidating the opponent I think that you know has to stop medium and streaming for effective education you know and advocacy reporting I think it is very very you know important that we you know engage the media for responsible also reporting you know because that like it has been said you know it can also lead to some of the you know balance that you know people are seeing but more importantly I think the absent of good governance is the main thing but only every state whether in the north whether in the south they are very few states where you can actually see that government exist apart from looting and stealing outright looting and stealing you don't see none nothing and that is why it is a do or die so if you continue with that there's no way you can actually guarantee any you know peaceful election and even after the election as long as corruption looting and stealing is the main reason for coming to power you will disempower the people money that is meant for providing you know water electricity education health it will be taken it's only in Nigeria that 20 billion dollars will disappear and the country did not shake and nothing happened and it's okay it's normal that is just one sector it's only in Nigeria that 1.7 trillion will be given as a waiver by just one super minister and the country need money for water electricity for school it's too much I think we should just be honest enough to see that we contribute you know towards resolving this problem I am happy that international conference and I've seen how the politicians are not ready to allow Nigeria to move forward and we try you know with little with our little present there we try to battle them but it's not easy but to continue with the support of like minds of Professor Gamberi who is always encouraging the youth and the civil society they were able to push certain things but it was not easy even at that it was not easy so I just want to say that the threat to 2015 there are a lot of issues there are a lot of factors and I have not seen that preparation that the government has made guarantee in Nigeria and even not in Nigeria that there's going to be free and fair election the president has continuously said that he'll live in one man one boat but you know when it come to action it is a different thing altogether it's just like the issue of corruption you know I mean corruption as far as some of the Nigerian official are concerned there's no corruption in Nigeria and yet all these billions are disappearing every day and nobody has been punished you can imagine the subsidy scandal the oil subsidy so with all the people that have stolen that billions I mean trillion of NERA nobody has gone to jail and nobody has returned one cobble to today with all the shouting that we are doing sometimes I don't even know whether you know we should just we should just surrender but I think the thing is just too much the amount of money is being stolen in Nigeria on daily basis if America experience that I think it will collapse so Nigeria I don't know I think it's magic the magic I don't know why it's coming but honestly speaking we have a serious problem there's no need to underpin or to over exaggerate but I think we need every support to ensure that the country you know survive beyond the election and that is why you know this issue of good governance productive and positive at the key center we don't utilize the potential of Nigerians especially the youth we only utilize the only utilize the youth potential for negative sin in other places youth are utilized for positive sin but in our own case it's only for either electoral balance or religious balance or communal balance bad things not really I mean this is not really good for us as a nation we can grow in that manner so I want to join others because to say that yes we need every support in Nigeria to ensure that we have this full election I think the whole Boko Haram sin and many other group of Malaysia because the Boko Haram were located has been overblown so something is going to be done or it's happening but I think there are other Malaysia that are also working for the 2015 to come and the whole country they will render the whole country so I think it is important that we all put our hands together to ensure that we have a fair electoral system that Nigerians can believe in that when you lose the election you know you have lost the election when you won nobody should change the election in the previous election people were declared winners in Abuja they lost where the election happened but in Abuja, Abuja declare them winners so if we continue with that kind of electoral system there is no way you can prevent possible violence and tension in the country thank you thank you very much indeed finally Enemo let's hear from your perspective good afternoon Hal this is my second time of coming to the United States to be part of this CSIS engagements I was here with Professor Jega and I did share some views then I will repeat some of them but the first thing I would like to say is that the south south of Nigeria is actually known to have had a long history of political violence I think everyone here is very much aware of the fact that you've had some conflicts in the 90 delta region that's where I'm based that's where I do my work some observers are concerned that the revival of militancy in the 90 delta may become a factor in 2015 I hope not I don't think so however let me mention that from all indications the core issues that led to the 90 delta conflict have not been resolved or dealt with the poverty the lack of employment lack of socioeconomic development and yet to be resolved very very strong sense of injustice in the region is still palpable and it is freely expressed some ex militants is true are threatening to unleash violence if president Jonathan was not allowed to contest for his second term but it is also important to note that the Jonathan presidency is one of the reasons why there is relative peace in the 90 delta region since the declaration of the amnesty program feelings are still running high quite high about how some Northern politicians are conniving with Islamic fundamentalists and terrorists to make the country ungovernable for president Jonathan the Boko Aram insurgency is considered as a deliberate plot by some disgruntled modern politicians to disrupt and destroy his transformation agenda and punish him for daring to contest the 2011 elections and maybe even the 2015 election and these are strong perceptions that exist in the region amongst the population there it is also true that there is oil theft bunkering activities are increasing significantly leading to a loss of over 191 billion Naira what of revenues in the first quarter of 2013 alone the figures vary the cocktail of increase in oil theft colossal oil revenues and the answer of some of you know individuals with questionable characters the availability of public arms in the region because not all the arms were mopped up during the Amnesty program all this is quite worrying and of course in addition the heavy military presence and active participation connivance, collusion of the security forces in oil theft and bunkering activities in the region is also a major issue and of course as we approach 2015 some people are concerned such threats could get worse but my point is that we shouldn't worry too much about the elections elections will come and go we civil society operating the region we are more concerned about the medium term and the long term the problems of the 90 delta region could be dealt with and some of us think that there is a window of opportunity for all sorts of stakeholders to come engage and try to deal with some of the core issues that created that enabling environment for this militancy to flourish the problems lie there not the elections and if we don't deal with these core issues which I mentioned earlier then at some point there will be a resurgence of militancy problems in the 90 delta region I'm glad that some people are doing some things we partner with working in the 90 delta region to resolve some of these problems changing mindsets we are also currently partnering with the american state department in the 90 delta region again to change mindsets change the narrative from violence to non-violence approach to resolving some of these problems early days but we are hopeful we are confident that we will be able to resolve some of these problems because today we are supposed to be talking about strategies to prevent and mitigate violence I'm going to just go to some bullet points and take off a few one I think we need adequate security both equipment and personnel to be deployed to the coastal communities in the 90 delta region by that I mean the creeks during elections every time we repeat the same thing it doesn't happen international observers don't go to the creeks we can go to the creeks we want to go to the creeks so give us the means to go to the creeks to monitor and observe elections in the creeks a lot of elections in the 90 delta are won from votes well votes from the creeks so you can stay in the urban centers and see everything fine but when the votes from the creeks come in everything changes happen in delta, happen in Biasa and will happen again probably so I think we should watch what is going on in the creeks of the 90 delta there should be some sort of mechanism to disband some of the cult groups in the 90 delta the Biasa state government somehow grappled with it and seems to have been resolved somehow in Biasa in river state it's really bad the presence of these groups in river state is already over hitting the polity it is acknowledged that some of the politicians or political parties are actually collaborating, partnering with these cult groups and these cult groups are known to be harmed and this is a very important issue I said this the last time I repeated training of journalists on conflict sensitive reporting the manner the media has been reporting is likely to report political conflict as implications for violence a cost re-examination of newspapers reveals high levels of sensationalism which if left or moderated will contribute to violence yes it is true they should be trained on reporting of political conflicts to mitigate risks of their reports becoming triggers for violence we should educate the politicians the utterances of some of the politicians to their supporters or against opponents could be considered as a declaration of war such individuals that instigate conflict and promote violence must be called to order by their parties or sanctioned by the electoral agencies sustained funding by both the federal electoral agencies international donors agencies and NGOs on voters education again after every election we repeat the same thing voters must be educated and it must be done in a sustained manner we are just seven months to the elections and we want to be right there in the local communities engaging with them and trying to change mindset but that's not happening often times funding for some of these electoral activities come some months to the election and then by then it's too late you can't do much I'm not joking but we should reduce the remuneration for politicians they end too much money in Nigeria Nigeria politicians end huge salaries with additional side benefits which make politics very attractive as a profession and sometimes you know they are sometimes very desperate to win elections by any means necessary politics as practice in Nigeria is about power and self enrichment and rarely about service to community or society the ever widening gap between the politicians and the populace should be bridged by reducing their huge earnings I don't know if they are going to allow that to happen but something should be done about it economic empowerment when Nigerians are economically empowered they will not deem it necessary to sell their votes for 500 or 1000 Naira it is poverty that is pushing the average Nigerian to sell their votes and also young men who are gainfully employed might not find it interesting to go and die as a political tug for some political party or some politician so as we grapple with the issues of elections raising living standards in Nigeria generally will go a long way in reducing violence during elections of course an effective and non-partisan INEC is key for delivering free fair and credible elections they have done well, they are trying equity wasn't bad at all we sent an 8 man team to go and monitor the elections in equity and the reports we received were quite encouraging of course you cannot compare in the context of a general elections but we have to give credit where credit is to you the reports were really very good about the equity elections but even that elections are here has been contested in the courts now the Hamnesty program some of us had strong reservations about it including yours truly but it's worked so far three and a half years of relative peace in the 90 delta some people have been giving stipends not to make trouble orders have been sent for training abroad and you know in all sorts of countries but there are concerns some of these young men have already been trained and they are coming back where are the jobs and there are also concerns that this Hamnesty program might crawl to one hand towards 2015 it would be a mistake it's working find some way to replace it look at changing the format but it is something that has contributed to relative peace in the 90 delta so it should not be discarded not yet anyway until we find something some replacement finally I would like to say that the 90 delta region is at the crossroad we've had over three years of relative peace in the 90 delta and people are hopeful yes there is hope some of this hope emanates from the fact that President Jonathan is from the 90 delta region but people are also getting the solution people are complaining that how can you have a president from the 90 delta and the east west road the major federal road in the region is not completed yet people are not really seeing changes in their daily lives and at some point this hope will turn into the solution will turn into frustration and then we should all be worried about the 90 delta probably going back to another circle of violence but as far as I'm concerned there won't be really serious violence as a result of these 2015 elections but please I strongly believe that there's still a window of opportunity there is relative peace in the 90 delta people are coming into the 90 delta I I know you've been there and several other people do come to the 90 delta today it's not it's not the place that people used to say it's a wash with kidnappers and all sorts of criminal activities and all that and finally let me say that in a state like BIELSA state it's not as peaceful as even Lagos state and that message is not getting across to the international community yet people still see the 90 delta as a conflict zone and it's a no-go area what the 90 delta needs today is investment investment from the private sector change those travel advisory laws and allow people to go and invest in the 90 delta and that's it thank you thank you we have 20 minutes before lunch shows up let's open the floor without further ado to questions please introduce yourself and let's have questions rather than statements so we can get as many in as possible the gentleman over there had his hand up first so let's start with him my name is Andrew my question is to the panel there was no mention of diaspora voters and the overwhelming number of Nigerians outside Nigeria are from the south and middle belt and overwhelmingly Christians first not allowing these Nigerians in the diaspora to vote effectively disenfranchises millions of Nigerians and then at the same time Nigeria relies on the remittance of these diasporas for their foreign exchange and amounting to billions of dollars every year now question for you do you think that allowing Nigerians in the diaspora to vote may counterbalance the propensity for electoral violence in Nigeria because until the diaspora votes which will be millions accounted winners cannot effectively be declared thank you let's take a question from this side now the lady at the front there good afternoon everyone my name is Vivian Anugo I just completed my masters in international development well clearly security is a threat for the 2015 elections but I do think that there are about 167 million mobile phones in Nigeria and of course millions of Nigerian diaspora I'm just wondering has any individual civil society organization or a group of organizations considered using mobile phone technology to conduct mock elections that's used as an app or text messaging to conduct surveys and do you see challenges and opportunities in that and if indeed you do take it into consideration would you please include none of the above as an option in the survey thank you okay and let's take the other lady just there as well I wanted to follow up actually on your last point which was about private sector development and I think one of the other speakers mentioned the tendency for insecurity when you have a lot of unemployed youth or people without opportunity or investment in the future so both in the Niger Delta and in some of the rest of areas up north what do you think it would take to really bring about sustainable private sector investment there okay thanks well those three questions have a certain come together quite nicely so let's three potential violence instability mitigators if you will diaspora, the diaspora the diaspora, the power of technology mobile phones and the power of the private sector who wants to address that let's start with Raf Sanjani well I think there has been of recent there has been agitation of diaspora to be allowed to participate in the election in Nigeria and I think also I've been one person that I've been also personally also championing that cause but the problem we had is that until recently the diaspora themselves they have never organized themselves in a manner that they can actually advocate and push for that they only talk in a conference like this and if you continue to talk here nothing nobody is going to listen to you you know over there so you need to go back to Nigeria or have representatives from Nigeria where the thing is happening like for example during the at the national conference you know there's a representative you know from the diaspora he has been pushing the thing but without even proper educating and enlightening of the even the members to understand the importance of why diaspora should be part of it because even those who are in Nigeria they are not able to vote not a close of people who are there the annex did not have the financial and manpower to conduct any election you know outside Nigeria even within Nigeria you have not been able to have any serious thing happening so I think you know in principle I personally believe that the diaspora should be given the you know opportunity to do that and you know we should actually agitate for that to happen but I am not seeing that happening immediately that's part of the resolution that we even have at the national conference in principle we agree that the diaspora is such important that they must be really you know they are allowed to participate in the electoral process in Nigeria but it cannot happen with 2015 election because the annex and the government has not prepared for that and like I said it's only of reason that the diaspora themselves have realized that they have lost they are not really you know there is total disconnect and I think it is important that they have realized that they need to be connected now in the past most of the some of the diaspora people would do respect they think that Nigeria they have left Nigeria and to help with the people over there but some of them now are now beginning to realize that it is important that they are actually they play the role you know that they are supposed to play at least even if it is just to be able to vote somebody that they consider useful so I think there are a lot of challenges that you know will have to contend with but I think in principle I totally agree that diaspora people should be you know allowed to participate and this must be part of the electoral reform process which for now it is not you know near there at all because you are just talking here in America you need to go back to Nigeria find allies and make sure that that is done because it's politics and you have to really make sure that you know your views are actually you know the mainstream in that otherwise a politician you know will not even bother with their but here because you may not be able to manipulate or you will not be able to do what they want you know so it's a big struggle it's a power and you don't get power just on the platter of gold so you have to make sure you do that. Thank you. Who else wants to address some of the other two questions about technology private sector? Nemo, Chom? Yep, I will do Thank you. I think there are some fundamental things that need to change one is of course the general perception that a region like the 90 sector is still unsafe prone to violence and expatriates are kidnapped you know it's not happening anymore it's not been happening for the past three and a half years. So I think that some of these accepted notions that the region is prone to violence should change and of course the different countries across the world should encourage that by changing some of their travel advice. That's one. Number two, I think that the Nigerian state itself, not just the federal government but also the state government should build better infrastructure, basic infrastructure. The electricity provision of electricity good roads for you to be able to transport your goods if you go there to set up an industry and Nigerians who are quite highly educated because Nigerians value education I strongly believe do have the workforce for any investor that would like to go and invest in Nigeria. It is also true that the Nigerian state has put in place some incentives even tax breaks in some states and you know facilities for people to be able to repatriate their profits. So I think it's probably a question of information. If you really are interested invested in Nigeria then you should go and get the information from the Nigerian embassy for example there are opportunities and I know personally that was from the amount of the minister of trade and industry actually that a lot of investors are going into Nigeria today because Nigeria, we were told is today the biggest economy in Africa. Right? Let me say the issue of diaspora. I think that unless INEC is able to conduct free and fair elections consistently it's difficult for them to add the diaspora. This is very very important because they are still wumbling and stumbling and that every time you bring issues of adding responsibility to INEC people will say can they cope? So I'm sure that if the diaspora can put more pressure to help INEC to rise and to influence the the electoral act that the only way we can have that. The issue of mock elections I think that we in search for common ground are planning to do quite a number of innovative activities. Those who are familiar with search for common ground know that we have this global project called the team which is a fictional football team that raised issues and that we hope to introduce for the elections in Nigeria and what we are going to produce this soap and then we are going to go to the communities. We are going to use it to spark discussions and to conduct various kinds of activities including mock elections to be able to really get it to people that this is how the elections are going to take place how citizens should use the opportunity to make sure that their voices and their vote counts. This is very very important because we assume given the number of elections that have taken place that people know but there is so much uncertainty about every election they changed the electoral law there are few things that remain the same. So people are always thinking that there is a new thing in town if there is some consistency it means that we can then additionally enlighten and educate people bring functional education to them for them to understand what the election means as of now they do not see the importance of the elections because the election never changed their life it never contributes anything to their lives and that is why they sell the vote because you vote these politicians they do nothing for you next time they are coming back so you say okay at least let me get something out of it and that is critical unless something happens that the communities the citizens at the community level begin to understand that we are not so hopeless that we can change even community by community begin to change the nature of the elections begin to say that it will count for this little community the election will count and we are going to make sure that we get a change in policy and in project and activities that is going to take place here this is I think this is one way to move it because the elite for me you know they simply have no sense of responsibility at all levels whether it is government whether it is political parties whether it is traditional there is no sense of what is called responsibility that if you are trying to do something you should be seen to do it and therefore change will never come from there you just watch the campaigns you will find that no issues are discussed no promises are met so if there are no promises are met how can they be fulfilled so we have to generate the issues from below and make sure that they count in the elections we are just going to take one more quick round of questions before lunch so if you can keep your questions very brief and the answers very brief they will get the chance to have our lunch before the next panel and let's start with the YouTube the diaspora vote the assumption that the diaspora vote is largely Christian largely southern needs to be interrogated when you add the 5 million basically how some Muslims in the Sudan and they add another 2 million in the Zango communities in West Africa it changes the assumption Professor Gambara you wanted to say something as well just a clarification I was or I'm still chairman of the foreign national conference committee on foreign policy and diaspora and actually we did approve a vote for the diaspora because it's a constitutional right it's just the mechanics of exercising that right outside and Jibo is correct when people think of diaspora they think it's just the Nigerians in the diaspora and the West the Nigerians in Sudan in West Africa and some other parts outside of Nigeria are really quite huge in number and they don't fit into any new categories and then there are other cities from other diaspora who have been able to vote China I think Egyptians Indians it's possible to do this if there is a will to have it done working with our embassies and consulates all over the world so in principle and in reality yes but still a recommendation by the national conference up to the national assembly in order to put it into practice but it's been it's been done it's been recommended by the national conference but the actuality of it is still waiting for the work thank you Ambassador you wanted to say something briefly I decided I was going to talk today just listen that's why the father of the Jibo tried to provoke me he didn't quite succeed the only thing I just want to respond to him briefly is that it's not true that the government did not immediately act to the Jibo kidnapping the nature of the challenge dictated the nature of the response it had to be done the nature of the challenge was so that it had to be done covertly and when you do things covertly and you are not able to conclude it you don't rush to the press to see this what we have been doing we have not been able to get there that's part of it but the one that really made me to I felt like talking the issue of diaspora voting this government is the one that has shown so much most concern to diaspora ever I remember when the federal government created nine new universities I was instructed to look for three possible vice chancellor from the diaspora and if none of them were appointed including Professor Aloko they are all from these United States when the National Conference was going on they were giving instructions that the diaspora should be represented they conducted the elections translated one of them to be there and I expect him there is somebody who called my mother diaspora who is there him or her to be leading the struggle to ensure that the rise of the diaspora are respected and my good friend Professor Gambray was just telling me that it was proposed and so we mentioned this thing to Professor Jigar several times and he agreed in principle that diaspora should be diaspora should be part of the voting but we have to learn to vote before we can run now we are not really done, we are not really perfect about elections in Nigeria it takes so much of technology and so much complications to get the votes brought from all over the world and then we can't tell, we know what happens what happens there when you vote from overseas it's not an easy exercise to learn to vote before you can run let's get it right at home first and that's how we tell them but as a matter of policy and principle it will be agreed that the diaspora should be allowed to vote as soon as possible and feasible last one somebody asked about investment in Nigeria it's all a case of information since 2010 Nigeria's volume of trade in the US has grown more than 200% we are the largest trading part of the United States now there are so many US companies in power, in Greek infrastructures in Nigeria I am leaving this place to go and meet to go to a meeting I am arranging a meeting between two American investors who are going to Nigeria so we got so much of them and we are very happy in mission that's happening all you need to do is to come to us we give you all the incentives, all the packages I have so many invitations so they are talking about trade it's not because they haven't come to us you need that website, all the things are there the packages, the incentives they are there so Nigeria is open for investment we are the largest trading partner for the US in Africa we are the 29 largest economy in the world and the largest in Africa, thank you thank you very much Ambassador I'm afraid time is not on our side and we've run out and I don't want to eat too much into your lunchtime so it's 12.45 just past now there's a buffet lunch outside, please help yourselves and if you could reconvene back in here so we can resume again promptly at one o'clock but I want you all to join me in thanking our panelists here for great presentations