 Hi, my name is Liam Rowe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 calm and welcome to this week's supply and demand forex and gold fundamental and Technical analysis if you're new to the channel a warm welcome to you and if you are returning an equally warm welcome to you and Please don't forget to like subscribe and share with your trading colleagues on social media if you find the content that I provide every week Interesting and useful. I've been getting a lot of feedback from traders and again, thank you for You know your feedback on my videos and I will continue to deliver quality content that helps you to navigate the you know the world of Forex both from a fundamental and technical analysis perspective because the trading 180. It's not one or the other It's a combination of both to make the best trading decisions so we apply fundamental analysis to really establish our directional bias overall and then apply technical analysis supply and demand strategies and liquidity hunt strategies stop hunting that to time trade entries established profit targets and general risk management, so let's get into the Forecaster guests for this week in their economic calendar. I should say for this week and Monday 4th of April We've really the most important news For the currencies that we trade anyway are you know, we've got balance of trade for for Germany Tuesday we've got the RBA interest rate decision. It's expected to be held But a rising interest hiking interest rates is expected within the next maybe six months Also, by the second quarter, so that's generally positive for the RBA For the Australian dollar balance of trade, which is always worth a watch as well because it affects gross domestic products manufacturing for the US the We've got now FMC minutes on Wednesday as well as definitely be kingly watched So that obviously gives us an insight into how the Fed Federal Reserve was thinking About their decisions to potentially hike rates and what you know, they will be doing going forward We'll get into that As we get into the charts Thursday will be balance of trade again for the Australian dollar and Again a positive balance of trade is always good for the for the economy and on Friday. We've got What we got stability review consumer confidence and unemployment rate for for Canada again Canada I think the forecast is for a consensus matter of fact It's for lower of unemployment The trading economics forecast their own forecast is for it to pretty much stay the same But evil way you should have lower unemployment, which is again always good for an economy and as long as the economic Situation is is looking good then You know, you should have a stronger currency if the central bank is still looking to hike rates Anyways, let's get into the technicals and a bit more in-depth fundamentals and let's start off as we always do every week on the dollar index and the dollar index You know as dollar overall has been a buy for me. It's been a buy for a very long time And daughter index is just a measure of daughter strength against various currencies like the Euro the yen and the and the pounds so What we've had here I was marking this out last week. We did have prices come Down into this zone here. I wasn't too keen that this was going to be a Strong level of demand, but it did turn out that you know the buyers of definitely as far as you know Fair auction is concerned and when you see prices move sideways like this, you know, it's not it's not a Consolidation or anything like that. That's the wrong term really It's known as an auction and a fair auction that that buyers are looking to buy around here and sellers I think that this is expensive here and this is fair value right in between that but but this is an auction and It's auctioning fairly at the moment so the the dollar is valued between 99 44 and 97 71 so At the moment, I think the dollar is is definitely still a buy especially when you have You know the Fed Keeping a weary eye on bond yield curves while signaling hikes are still on track, right? So If you don't know about bond yields, basically Just from a simple perspective If the yield curve is rising as in the two-year yield is lower than the ten-year yield then That's a good sign for the economy and if you have an inverted yield curve meaning that the two-year Short-term yields are higher in percentage wise than the ten-year Yield then that's an inverted curve and at the moment it's funny because we were looking at this on Wednesday in our group call Bond yields and we were saying that the bond yields had flattened We've noticed that had flattened as well meaning that the two-year and the ten-year pretty much, you know the same When it comes to when it comes to the yield curve in in or yield percentage So and again, so that's a potentially worrying signal For the economy as bond traders, you know, we're not necessarily confident in the growth of the economy in the in the long term anyway, so It says an inversion of a key part of the yield curve has caught the attention of some of the Federal Reserve But officials show no sign of ditching plans to keep raising rates interest rates to get inflation under control Really, they can't So it says the two-year yield briefly exceeded the ten-year right as I was saying on Tuesday for the first time since 2019 inverting yet another segment of the Treasury curve and reinforcing the view that rate hikes made cause a recession and Then the spread later went back to being slightly positive on the day on Tuesday and remain so on Wednesday So just because there is an inverted yield curve doesn't mean that it you know You know the the economy will definitely go back into recession Although it has been quite accurate and it doesn't even mean that it's gonna go into it straight away, right? It means that there is a you know There is a signal there and sometimes a yield curve can be inverted for a very long time I think the last time a yield curve the yield curve was inverted Before a recession hit I think it must have been about a year and a half nearly two years or something like that So doesn't mean that yeah because we're inverted all of a sudden we're going into a recession Not at all But also as well. Oh wrong one. I did have another story. Sorry. It was here The story the video was that the Fed has has to accelerate tightening And this is black rocks Rosenberg in a black rock or one of the or if not the biggest Hedge funds or had they have a lot of I think have trillions under management and again These guys are coming out saying that the Federal Reserve have to Tighten meaning hike rates then that generally is supportive for the dollar Does that mean that you know, it's going to be supported for the dollar every single day or every single week? No, of course not because you know the market is an auction So, you know traders have to buy and sell for cheap and that can take some time But in general you should see a higher a Higher dollar in the same way that you know for this week the dollar, you know came down, right? Doesn't mean that you know the dollar was weak does just means that the smart money who understand You know talk about you know you go on YouTube and people talk about smart money concepts But don't actually understand or don't even mention fundamentals crazy How can you be smart money? You don't you know mention fundamental analysis, but you know smart money We're buying right. This is cheap. This is definitely cheap This was you know cheap and then prices eventually went higher in the weeks and months ahead. So If You know just because this week, you know, we I'm looking to buy the dollar doesn't mean that I'm saying that the dollar's gonna go higher You know prices, you know If the market wants to buy the dollar for a cheaper price Then that's what it's exactly what it's going to do just because it pulls back from you know A week or two or even a month or so doesn't mean that the dollar you know is the fundamentals don't work It just means that you know smart money are looking to buy as long as the fundamentals are still the same Anyways, my bias again is to the upside. So Looking at the dollar index. It's just looking at levels for confidence, right? If price do the price does come down to the The 97 area then the dollar's definitely gonna be a Bargain down there and I do want the dollar to come down even if it goes higher That's fine. And then it pulls back and then allows me to get involved in you know Any kind of dollar buying on any of the crosses and that's really my My bias at the moment for dollar buys Now looking at the dollar yen and the dollar yen again still really hasn't come down There was a high a high that prices made Last week and that was the Monday. So Demand so we had yeah, so we had on the Monday prices, you know Shot up then we came back down into that higher high I'm sorry high a low area and then Demand reacted there. So then it's the case of going down into a lower time frame Whether you want to go down into the one hour or two hour or five hour Or whatever it is that you want to trade and then look for potential buy trades me personally I wasn't I still think this is an expensive area. I Was saying to the guys in the group that I'm not keen necessarily on buying At the highs although if you do if you if anyone did see an opportunity as long as you've got enough upside potential Meaning that let's say you went down to the lower time frame and this was you know Your entry was somewhere around, you know here as long as you've got enough upside potential before you get to the to the highs That's a decent trade right if you do but who knows where you're you know the or your Personal entry would have been a way your stoplosses, but just wherever it is as long as you've got enough upside potential That's the main thing But personally I wanted I do want it to come back down to a level That is a bit cheaper for more comfortable also as well I do look at moving averages which are actually moving fair value and Personally, I try not to take it any interest intraday trades in demand zones unless we have Price come down to at least a monthly fair value. So Prices is still above that monthly fair value and any if prices above a moving fair value then in fact It is you know expensive right because if this is fair value anything above that is going to be expensive. So That's just my opinion, of course So I'm looking for if if prices can come down it might not but if it does then I'll start to look for a buy trade And again with the yen looking at the yen This was an interesting article how Japan's yen lost its mojo as a safe haven and one of the things with Fundamental analysis as well, right and the people really kind of struggle with is that you have correlations that can you know last historically, right and There are there are periods where that can change every single risk event has to be evaluated differently and doesn't mean that it has lost its mojo all You know I'm all together right because we can't think in terms of absolutes, but What it does mean in that in this environment in this scenario with the Ukraine and Russia It hasn't been acting like as a as a safe haven asset, right? And there are several reasons for that one being fundamental analysis in So far as you know monetary policy, right? So There was some interesting There's an interesting paragraph which kind of summarizes this It says this is it right so it says it says by contrast the Federal Reserve is preparing to boost its short-term policy rate Right so interest rates as much as half a percentage point It's point in May and unveiled a runoff in its bond portfolio the divergent path, right? So divergence meaning, you know one currency Yeah, one central bank is looking to high grades and the other is not yeah So if you understand that in a straight fight the US dollar You know is doing what it can and the Federal Reserve is doing what it can to strengthen their currency Whereas the Japanese yen is not looking to do anything right then The dollar should really be the one to buy hence the reason why You have Trending markets for example, right? This is not some stupid Elliot wave You know prediction nonsense. This is you know what the smart money are really looking at and looking at Elliot waves They're looking at fundamental analysis To predicts and forecast where they think the value of the dollar yen is But also as well So there was a divergence there, right? and It says it's down more than 5% since the start of 2022 compared with other currencies again comparison Including the euro the yen hasn't fed quite so poorly Even so the measuring when measuring it against the basket of units of trading partners It's fading a look and clearly be seen and there was something else that it was in here That I thought was interesting It says the yen's failure to rise in a risk-off environment Indicates the increasing influence of commodity prices and ensuring terms of trade stock, right? It says Toru Sasaki head of Japan market research at JP Morgan and Chase wrote in a recent note The vicious cycle between a deteriorating trade balance and falling yen may have started and also as well You have to realize that traders and investors want a return on assets, right? The yen The yen is Is in negative negative yields, right? I think his mind is zero point one, right negative interest rate pretend Right, whereas commodity currencies, which are commodities going higher in price the likes of Canada the The New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar have all got positive Interest rates, right? So if you're gonna put your money into somewhere, yes safe haven wise We know what typically happens, but with comprising commodity prices and that affecting obviously Commodity currencies and their yield That's also a factor as well, right? It's like why will I keep that? You know your money in in a safe haven asset when typically there's an opportunity I'll say typically but there is an opportunity this time around in this risk-off environment to actually make some money by just Holding commodity currencies and commodities going higher, right? So with all that being said Again, it doesn't mean that the yen is no longer a safe haven asset But if you understand where money is going typically then fine brilliant But every single risk-off environment has to be evaluated differently, right? You can't just come out and say well the internet says this and the internet says that It's that's not that's not how you know, it works It works maybe, you know on the surface and to the layman, but you really have to understand Advanced fundamental analysis and that's what I'm here to do When it comes to you know, trading Being a trading mentor not just necessarily on on YouTube, but but with my with my discord group And for those of you who do want who are interested in joining the group Literally, it's gonna be Enrollment closes today the 2nd of April I think around about 8 p.m. London time And if you do want to get involved in that then In in in joining the group and be a mentor by me and understand really advanced fundamental risk sentiment and Supply and demand concepts because what I show on here, for example is a quite quite the basics of a supply and demand If you want to know really I take your take your trading to the next level then You know, basically you have until today. So the dollar yen The dollar yen for me is a continued buy also as well. I think our Our spreadsheet as well which has shows strength divergences and convergences the dollar yen is is again one of the top currencies base and quote currency So you've got one two and three is a typically the stronger currencies and six sevens and eight typically the weaker currencies now Also, there's a caveat to that because you also have to understand the currency value cycle and Why a currency that is ranked one two and three is likely to continue? appreciating yeah, or We have situations where a currency that is ranked one two and three does devalue right because an expensive currency can actually hurt a an economy and Currencies move in cycles right so nothing stays strong forever in the same way that a currency that is, you know ranked six seven or eight Right, which typically could be weak doesn't always stay weak, right? Yes, we understand that it's ranked on the spreadsheet at six seven and eight But we also have to do our due diligence and understand that you know six seven and eight can also mean a currency revaluation where things are changing in the economy and In fact a six seven or eight ranked currency can actually be a great buying opportunity Because this would be where a currency is undervalued So what we're looking at is really understanding divergences and potentially convergence type trades. So yes at the moment on For more fundamental analysis, the dollar is going to continue to appreciate whereas the currency The yen is continuing to Devaluing comparison. So again, this is all the stuff that you would get and understand in real time To make the best currency trading decisions if you join my mentoring group and discord group anyways getting back to the charts Moving on to the dollar Swiss dollar Swiss and dollar Swiss has come down and came down Earlier in the week, there was a nice buying opportunity there I know some traders made some money last week. I think that's last week Friday Going long there took some profit and then we had a bit of a pullback, right? bit of a pullback now from a Daily demands on perspective. I'm looking for prices really to come down to this area here I do like that as a as a buy trade again want to be a buyer of the Dollar and over the Swiss Frank now again, we are still in the risk of the environment the yet That's right. The Swiss Frank actually is doing pretty is doing okay. I should say out of the Two safe haven currencies the Swiss Frank Doing all right, but they're not looking to high crates any time soon. So for me any pullbacks of buying opportunities But if you do want to get short on that currency pair and maybe bought by my Buy more into a risk-off currency, which the Swiss Frank is acting as at the moment Then this supplies on the 19 free round number is a decent area to look for Sell trades on that currency pale though I wouldn't recommend and this isn't financial advice But if I'm buying a Swiss Frank, it's definitely not going to be against the US dollar Moving on to the dollar CAD And again to currency pairs that are you know where the central banks are hiking rates So for me, it's a more of a difficult trade The Canadian dollar has benefited From rising commodity prices, but for me, I'm really not interested in this currency pair But there is a buying opportunity if you think that the US dollar is a buy and think you think that's going to be cheap for the US dollar if you think that the Canadian dollar is a is a buy. In fact, there is a supply zone right on top of that demand zone Right there and there is a sell opportunity within that Within that supply zone, I would you know break down that zone One of the ways to break down that zone is to use support and resistance again It's not necessarily one supplier demand or support and resistance. We use all the tools available for various reasons and I think that within that zone Probably be the one two five six Area again, you just zoom down into a lower time frame and see if that's if that's a decent zone that you want to get Involved in me personally, I'm not looking at this currency pair. It's not on my list New Zealand dollar Again similar to the the dollar CAD where you have two Strong currencies I'm not looking to get involved with their last week prices did come down into that zone and then bounced, you know to the upside for me again, it's just really if you think that you know the US dollar is a buy then you're looking at getting short within that supply zone And if you think that the New Zealand dollar is a buy then you're looking at getting, you know Long in that demand zone, but for me again fundamentally not really interested in this currency pair That's all at a pound dollar and the pound dollar again. I was saying a couple weeks ago I do think that the par for the resistance is still to the downside Hence why that demand zone from last week, you know just didn't hold And I was also saying that I think prices will go into a fair value Watching between this high and this low so that's what they're you know zooming in That's what pretty much we're seeing at the moment again to central banks that can to high crates Although the pound I think is coming up to potentially being a sell And this is really due to Recent sharp price rises pushing millions in the UK towards over and up poverty overnight And in April chill has descended on Britain with warnings of ice snow and immediate spike in the cost of living the cost of living is is is a problem, right because if People generally are worried about the cost of living and can't afford to go out and spend then that could Usually leads to Problems in the economy, right? So What you're seeing is you know a central bank which is hiking rates, but the economy may actually suffer and looks to suffer if if the The The cost of living it keeps going higher because of energy prices. So I think at the moment I was saying last week and in the previous weeks that I was Very cautious on buying the pound. I was still a buyer of the pound But I said in the group that I wanted to just Take a smaller position. In fact, let me see if I can find that analysis Right, so here was my analysis and this was on the 25th of Friday the 25th of March And I said hi everyone. So here are my most recent thoughts on the pound in the short term I think the pound is still a buy Is it the best buy I wouldn't put ahead of the dollar the New Zealand the CAD or even Australia at the moment Australian dollar and That's due to rising potential Stagflation this year, of course stagflation could happen to most if not all economies But with the UK economy I have been reading more articles recently that the economy could hit be hit sooner rather than later Yes, the Bank of England is on the hiking cycle which should support Should give support to the to the pound by keep I'm keeping a keen eye on continued rising inflation which can Have the effect of hurting the economy with stagflation, right? So if the rumor starts that indicates the UK is headed for stagflation Then my bias towards the pound will change currently the pound Swiss has come down to an interesting level Which now looks like a stop hunt Da da da da and I was talking about the cost of living due to higher prices, right? So I talked about cost of living and then we get the cost of living Article right which then brings stagflation scenario more into focus just to reiterate I still think the pound is a buy against the Swiss in the end at the moment But my usual position size is going to be reduced on pound long trades until positive signs of the UK economic growth emerge Now again going back to You know the UK right and how much you know the gas cost this for me isn't positive news So for me, I think from now I'm changing my bias on the pound I don't know if I'm gonna Set it at the moment, but I think the pound potentially I'm you know is not on my list of things to buy or sell it might be a sell probably but I want to see the other data and And that but I'm probably leaning towards now, you know my bias being a sell trade So in fact if that is the case Then really and truly Then for me it's going to be you know looking for pullbacks on that Pound dollar and looking for a resell trade there or a sell trade up into the and up into that supply zone There around the one three freeze one three three fifties Euro dollar right euro dollar and This was it's been a nice trade so far a lot of guys got in short on a stop hunt around here and Yes prices broke through the the supply zone, but again our advanced strategies and understanding, you know stop hunts this was a stop hunt up here and prices actually have Made that a very profitable trade, you know to the downside a lot of traders got in around this area here The one sixteen what I got in at one six one one so one point one one six six and one point one One seven on on for some reason on the on the oanda broker It doesn't look like it's actually in it's not in the in a supply zone But if you go on to something like FXCM in fact that is in fact There was a supply zone here to get short and other traders got involved in this Profitable trade so far and if you take into account pretty much what's happening with the dollar and the euro What should happen? I'm not saying it's gonna happen this week, but you know We should see a lower euro dollar right and what compounds that euro dollar sell is The fact that the euro inflation right tops estimates to hit new records So that's what happened I think it was on was it what date was that maybe the Friday? Yeah, it was sorry the Friday It's April 1st euro zone inflation Accelerates to another all-time high as Russia's invasion of Ukraine roiled global supply chains and Provided a fresh driver for already soaring energy costs and when you have high inflation, but The euro zone will struggle to avoid a temporary drop in GDP growth The euro zone is recovery is likely to come to a standstill on the back of the fallout From the war in Ukraine a multiple a multitude of adverse shocks is set to push inflation to 6% in 2022 And for the time being the ECB will normalize itself will So it will limit itself to normalizing its monetary policy stopping QE in the third quarter and A first rate hike in the fourth now I don't know whether that is even possible now simply because And this was basically on the 31st of March the day before the inflation reading came out obviously Now will the with the central bank look to high crates I'm not so sure because again of this Stagflation potential the economy may not be able to support another or a rate hike, right? So for me a lot of uncertainty around the the euro and More more certainty around the dollar, right? So for me again part of these resistance is generally to the downside So with that being said We've got yeah, that's really the you know where the bias is if prices come up this week then for me Still looking for for sales, right because this could just be literally another liquidity hunt To the upside and then just looking looking for that downside potential But if you do want to get long on the the euro for whatever reason then you also have a demand zone right there So that's going to be a decent demand zone for you to get involved in that 109 Area or 110 just above that 110s. Yeah, so so there's that you've got the Australian dollar US dollar Again for me not necessarily the best trade to take I'm not really interested in this pair But technically you've got a nice area to look for short trades If you haven't already and then that would be a decent long trade If you're looking for to buy the Australian dollar versus the US dollar commodity price is still going, you know I guess maybe stabilizing going a bit higher You know, that's a decent buy trade, but again, I'm not buying you Australian dollar against the US dollar Aussie yen, this is something that I am looking to do been looking to get involved in this trade for a while But just this is again at a very expensive area that has been the demand zone Prices have kind of spiked through it, but Held again, I don't think there's going to be a trade in this for me for a while Again going back to really some moving fair value where way below that moving fair value. So let's see what happens And for me, that's an expensive area not looking to buy an expensive areas Is there a chance to potentially go short? You can if you want to there is a supply zone right on top of the of that supply and demand zone In fact, I'm not going to really draw on there I'd rather wait for prices to continue falling and proving that that that area is a stronger area of supply before you know looking for a pullback into that zone to get short and Finally gold so gold Again, there are several reasons to buy gold The one thing against gold is that you know the dollar is looking to strengthen and I think once The dollar stops strengthening Potentially because there is going to be a time Where the dollar will generally start to pull back or if there are you know general generally concerns around the US economy then I think the gold is definitely going to be a buy I think it's still a buy now to be fair any pullbacks of buying opportunities I'd rather be a buyer of gold and sell then selling is this you know a lot more down for it Then they're not going for it, right? But if you are looking to get short in that area, then there's supply But for me, I think again, it's between really this this fair value-watching between this one 1966 at the moment and 1892 so It's gold being traded fairly between that those two prices and let's see what happens anything outside of that could be seen as a Bargain or an expensive area, but but yeah, that's pretty much it for this week and again just a quick reminder that the Mentoring supply and demand and fundamental analysis mentoring is coming to a close Today so today depending on when you're watching it second of April And this is going to be your last chance for a while again I like to keep the group small and again a warm welcome to those of you who have joined and Yeah, let's I'm gonna try and get you to where you want to be with your trading It's gonna take hard work and dedication. Nothing is easy. Nothing is simple, especially, you know trading You're in one of the hardest environments most difficult environments in the world to be successful at and But it does take dedication as all skills anyways guys take care and I'll see you in the next video