 Hello and welcome to NewsClick. You're watching our live coverage of the 2021 Assembly Elections, the four states in one union territory that went to the polls in April. The results are slowly trickling out. Still a bit of time to go before the final results are out, of course, but the early trends are in and most of the results in most of the states, it's pretty clear what's going to happen. Of course, these results are coming out at a very difficult time for the country. You've seen the rise in COVID-19 cases yesterday. The numbers were slightly short of four lakh day before yesterday. We had over four lakh cases. The daily deaths in the range of 3,500 to 3,600, a very horrifying situation. Still across the country, desperate please, taking place for oxygen, desperate please, taking place for beds, hospital beds with ventilators, ICU beds, and we are seeing a definite collapse in the health system in many parts of the country. Posts a lot of questions to us as a country. Elections, of course, part of our democracy, something that takes place at regular intervals, something that's very essential, but the COVID-19 crisis has posed many more questions about our democracy as well, and its structures, its institutions, and what we should be doing to preserve it. So it's in this context, of course, that we're going to be talking about the results. We'll talk also about the pandemic in some of these states. Today we're joined by two very special guests, senior journalist Paranjay Guwathakritha and Basha Singh, and we're going to be looking at what the trends show us as of now. So like Basha and Paranjay, thank you so much for joining us. We are slightly delayed from our original schedule, of course, but the results that have come in so far seem to indicate very clear trends. I'll just quickly go through what's been happening right now. We'll start with West Bengal, of course, where defying all the exit polls, the Tamil Congress is looking towards achieving a quite substantial victory. Most indications place it at, it's going to get over probably more than 200 seats. It got 211 seats in the last election. This time it looks like it's going to get over 200 seats. Definitely it could be 205, 210, 200. The BJP is in the mid-80s, which again, there was a lot of speculation that there was going to be a very close margin. Maybe the predictions, whether it would be five to 10 seats, the difference, and now look where we are. So that's Bengal. In the state of Tamil Nadu, things have pretty much gone according to what the polls predicted, what most observers on the ground predicted. The ADMK and the DMK, the two major parties, they've pretty much switched from last time, the DMK looking to establish a very comfortable majority and form the government while the ADMK, with whom the BJP was aligned, is trailing substantially. Again, in Kerala, as most people had predicted, the LDF set to form the government again, probably getting in the range of somewhere between 85 to 90 seats in the 140 member legislative assembly. The Congress led UDF trailing despite this, of course, breaking the record. We'll talk about that, of course, of both parties coming to power. And in Assam, again, this time, of course, the BJP is in a comfortable position. In the state of Pusheri also, the NDA is likely to form the government. So this is where we are at. I think we'll go probably go state by state before we take a look at the larger picture, maybe. Both Paranjoy Bhasha closely, you've been following the elections. Paranjoy, I'll start with you and Bengal. So quick from what we have right now, what do the key trends seem to be as far as the Bengal results are concerned? Okay, a little while ago, about an hour ago, I put out on the social media, two unanswered questions. Two questions I have. Not at that time. One hour ago. Will the Trinomult Congress get over 200 seats in the assembly? The assembly, the legislative assembly of West Bengal has 294 seats. The halfway mark is 148. Right now, I think it's clear that the Trinomult Congress is getting over 200 seats. The question is, will it get over 205 or 210 seats? This is very, very clear. The second question was an hour ago. The number of BJP, the number of BJP members in West Bengal will be less than 100? That is, will Prashant Kishore have to find a new job or not? Because Prashant Kishore himself said that if the party is going to get over 100 seats, I will leave my job as a political advisor. So it seems that today, Prashant Kishore has to cut two cakes, one for the DM and one for the Trinomult. No problem. But at this time, it seems that the number of BJP will be less than 100, for sure. Will it get over 80 or 80 or 90? We know that there is hope till evening. But this is very important, that the BJP repeatedly says that this is my victory. Because 5 years ago, I had 3 BJP members. Now, they will say that they will win. They will definitely say that Virodi Dal is the biggest Virodi Dal in West Bengal, because the Congress and the Virodi Dal did not get over. So, there is one more question. Many people are asking the same question. Will Mamata Banerjee win from Nandi Gram? We will find out till evening or night. But at this time, it seems to me that Nandi Gram has two parts. In one place, there are a lot of Muslims and we have seen clearly that they voted for the PMC Trinomult Congress. So, we will tell you at this time. But it seems to me that Mamata Banerjee will win from Nandi Gram. And then they will say that our Subhindo Adhikari, the traitor with us is like Mir Jaafar. But understand, for some reason, Mamata Banerjee loses. There are so many questions. This is a personality-oriented party. There is no one else other than Mamata Banerjee. There is no other tall leader in the Trinomult Congress. So, what would happen if, hypothetically, Mamata Banerjee loses her seat in Nandi Gram? I repeat, I don't think she is going to lose. But if she loses, and you must remember, she did not deliberately contest from two seats. She could have contested from Bhavanipur or somewhere. Why didn't she do it? She must be regaining her decision. No, I'm not so sure about that. Let's wait and watch. It's early days. But what I have to say is that if Mamata Banerjee loses from Nandi Gram, then she will be the chief minister. Why? The law of our country is six months in front of her. And there are many ways that she will give her seat and Mamata Banerjee will win in six months. So, in the coming days, it has become clear that the chief minister of Prashchim Mangal will take Mamata Banerjee for the third time. She is going to be 65-67 years old. So, she will actually be the first woman chief minister with this kind of a long... She is the only woman chief minister in India at present, but she will have this kind of record. Jyoti Basu's record was of course different as was Gekonga Phang and Pawan Chang Ling, but I won't get into that. So, I could talk a lot about Bengal, but these are my... The way I anticipate what will happen in the next few hours. Absolutely. Or Prashan Ji, what a surprise. DMKB were expecting the biggest sweep. Right, actually. Pawan Ji will come back to Tamil Nadu, of course. Before that, I just wanted to quickly go to Basha, who was in Bengal, reporting on quite a bit of the process as well. So, Basha, this was considered by many as the best chance for the BJP because they had invested a huge amount of money. The election was eight phases. The Prime Minister and the Home Minister were rallying throughout the state. There was quite a bit of effort spent to actually bring people from the Tamil Nadu Congress. A lot of those defectors seem to be kind of losing or trailing. So, based on your inputs and the Tamil Nadu has definitely held to its southern base and it has actually even gone beyond its traditional base as well. But based on your analysis, how do you see the kind of response that people had to those who had left with the Mool come to the BJP and the kind of attitude that people had for the BJP there? Yeah. I think what I see Prashant was the undercurrent which the national media was not able to read. They were not willing to read. If you see the whole election, the reporting was just based, focused on Nandigram Singur and some of the constituencies which were highly reported during the whole election phases. And it was definitely one of the toughest election in West Bengal, one of the toughest election. And whatever is the result, definitely Mamta Benerji right now has emerged that she has the capacity to fight back the whole team of BJP RSS and different organizations of the right-wing organizations. So she has emerged as a very different kind of a leader. Right now if you see the kind of energy and money and propaganda and the media, everything was in favor of BJP, the whole campaign. But the best part was, and I think that which held Mamta that the way BJP has made endures, definitely we are going to sit and we are going to analyze Prime Minister Narendra Modi visit to West Bengal because what I was reading right now that the impact on the Mathuva Samaj, the constancy is wise and everything is coming out and there's a BJP is a huge gain. We should consider that they have focused on some communities. He went all the way to West Bengal when I was there in Bengal. I was watching his campaign from Bangladesh the kind of WhatsApp message and they have set the network. You find first time BJP got so much foot soldiers where they have taken the whole TMC chunk. I was in Nandigram. Nandigram if Mamta was not camping for last three days which she decided in the end it would have been a very difficult thing. But what I feel about the results so far that finally the federal structure and the regional parties have asserted back be it even in the Puducherry it's not BJP it's the regional party which they have taken up and Congress was nowhere in the fight even in the Assam Congress left the fight at the last moment when I was in Guwahati even in the Congress leadership there was a huge split otherwise people were there to vote against and we should remember that that's the only state where the EVM machines were taken by the BJP it was reported in the media and especially in the West Bengal it was a very difficult different kind of fight where the whole prestige of Bengali civilization what Bengal stands for and the BJP and I think in the last three phases it would have been very difficult for the BJP to stand initially they were able to make this perception and the urban middle class voter the whole people who were supporting and at the same time many among the Dalit voters BJP was able to make deep inroads into it I have interviewed the Panna Pramoks I have went to the Valmiki Busties I have went to the Dalit Busties even in the Ahablasi the first part for the Mamta the poor thought that she worked and it was very good for the BJP that they have taken all the goons so basically it was the goons of PMC which brought a bad name to Mamta they thought that the BJP is a washing machine and the the Suvendu Adhikari and the whole team will work like that but you see there was a sympathy there was a common person and especially among the women voter there was a huge sympathy huge sympathy that Mamta is fighting alone sister is fighting alone and you see this pride that she is moving on the wheelchair or the Khela Hobay this thing it was unimaginable that this cartoon became the biggest poster for Mamta that everybody was saying that no the whole commens of the Dilip Ghosh and the kind of language they used against Mamta was proving beneficial for Mamta so that just backed fire so I think that was a very important point and at the same time even in the Nandigram, Haldia Singhu there was a kind of a fear from both the sides that's what they are going to speak on the camera you find that this kind of a fear is unprecedented so much fear so much fear of what we are going to speak the people of Shubendu are sitting there in a very slow voice you see from the news click that we reported from the market from Nandigram four people said they said so slowly but from behind people are standing what are you saying they were hounding us that you should get out of here so this kind of machinery this kind of whole focus this also teaches that elections are going to be very tough the regional leaders who have a very strong footing very strong footing this is a very usual thing it's not a very good thing for Indian democracy but after that you are going to stand like this absolutely right I am just coming to you in a minute just wanted to raise Tamil Nadu also in this context because please I just want to add two or three points that Basha made which are very important the first thing that Basha said and this is what we are thinking that the people of Delhi the people of Madhya they don't want to see the women the women of Bengal have voted for Mamta the first thing like Basha said very very important I have not heard a lot of stories that in a family swami is voting for someone and his wife is voting for someone this was a widespread second thing I think that this Indian party their ego reached one place which is Luxaan Amit Shah said that we won 200 seats after that if you fall in 80 or 90 then you will say if we had 3 seats then we got 80 or 90 this is our victory but this perception this fight of perception and this psychological warfare and this war has lost to BJP in Bengal and the last thing that Basha said see the experience the experience of our country the experience of our country in the post-Mangal just now Basha said after going to Dhaka Modi ji went to a temple and you see the people of Madhya when the people in 2019 there was a big part with the Indian party there was not so much support but it became clear and the last point I understood today the election commission of India made a big mistake that 8 times 8 times the elections 8 phases never before it didn't happen from the 27th of March till the 29th of April 1 or 2 months and the last time when Mamta said this Covid 4 times the last 3 times it didn't happen so I think this indirectly has hurt the BJP and everyone said this election commission of India is it really a religious organization or should we work with freedom or should we help one party so this perception also in my opinion hurts the BJP and moving from Bengal where of course all the attention has been to 2 other very important states as well Tamil Nadu and Kerala which also in their own ways have bucked this trend of the BJP winning I'll start of course with Tamil Nadu first because a sheer number of seats it was an expected result but nonetheless it also shows a couple of things one being the fact that there is a strong importance for regional parties encountering the BJP's wave like you pointed out secondly a very strong alliance built between the DMK the Congress, the left parties the VCK together covering a large section and a large section of social and political ideologies and in fact both Tamil Nadu and Kerala also prominent for the fact that the opposition to the BJP has not just been electorate it has been social it has been ideological the most common example being the go back Modi hashtags that both these states have adopted each time the Prime Minister has come I'll start with Tamil Nadu where I think that after the 2016 results where the DMK suffered a bit of a shock defeat this time they've come back strongly Stalin establishing himself as a powerful leader and also as the leader of a coalition as well so how do you see these results especially in the context of the nationalist I'll start with you but we are slightly short on time so if you could quickly summarize how you see them because Basha has been there as well so we'll cover both you know I was expecting the DMK to do even better than this to me the little bit of a surprise is that the AI DMK and the alliance with the IMD did as well as they did so that for me was a surprise but I have no doubt whatsoever that it was a decisive victory it would be a decisive victory for the DMK but I was expecting the Dravidha Munne to come to do even better but it hasn't and for me we were expecting the LDF to do well but they've done incredibly well and it's broken a trend we've always seen the sea source situation happening in Kerala so as you pointed out with Pinarayi Vijayan with Stalin and with Mamta we have three very very prominent regional political leaders who are chief ministers who could actually mount a challenge against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah and the juggernaut of the Bharti Janta Party and their belief in electoral autocracy one nation one war one nation you know all this appeals to hyper nationalism that the BJP is very good at I think it's put a break and that's very very important for Indian democracy Indian democracy and the politics of India the future the result of the election is very good in my opinion absolutely Basha you again you were in Tamil Nadu as well quickly insights regarding what were some of the inputs that you got from the people over there of course like we said it was an expected victory and both Tamil Nadu and Kerala were pioneers in various forms of welfareist people's participatory politics as well so did you see a reflection of that in the kind of margin that you are seeing today yeah Prasanth what was very important when we talk about Tamil Nadu and Kerala at one go and in reference to the West Bengal that you will find that there is a different kind of a politics which has its ground this is about the populistic politics where you have to talk about pro people agenda you have to sit you have to announce you have to make you have to talk about the rise you have to talk about the welfare schemes and the people expect you they make you accountable so that's a very important point which I felt that in Tamil Nadu though people were saying that AIDNK is able to regain because of many things I will we don't have time right now because of many things they are they were able to manage their anti-incumbency the kind of money has been floated for the central central government and especially Modi the way because I was in Madurai the same day when Modi was there the kind of announcement was made and here also you see that BJP is at the four places they were trying to make their base through the Jaggi Vasudev whole cult reclaiming the temples I was in many tribal villages and that was countered very strongly by Dravid politics what Dravid politics is how we have to save the and BJP is against Dravidian politics so BJP it was very difficult state definitely we know it's very difficult state but still the kind of anti-incumbency it was there in the beginning you find that finally they are able to gain and they are able to manage at the 80 seats that shows that they were able to defuse that kind of anti-incumbency which was there but Stalin has emerged as and he was there he was everywhere among the youth and among everyone though BJP was able to push this agenda that no we need a change only two politics so they were playing at multiple levels they were having as it is known they were trying to bring Rajnikarh for the longest time also yeah so that politics that multiple faces so they can divide they can factor the mandate but finally Tamil Nadu stood for the Dravidian politics and very strong against Modi that's we have to understand that's the only state where they are saying we don't want Modi very open thing which was there and at the same time you find that about the Kerala whole machinery they used against the CM of Kerala can you imagine that here one side Mamta is there here the whole administration Prachar everything is there and at the same time against one state which is a very small state in the resources but you find the kind of hunting they have been doing whole cases the ED thing everything even in the relief they tried their best from last two years you take out a single national disaster natural disaster there was a discrimination against Kerala so in that kind of a circumstances also Pinarai was able to succeed on his own agenda there was no dilution they don't compromise naikya na ideology na apni populistik jo ek janta tak pohchane ki baati covid se ladne ki baati usme ek alag model ke tor par they were able to stand so that shows that those leaders who are ideological committed who have ground jo janta se sede connect karte do rupe chawal agar bangal ke liye bahut important tha to Kerala me bhi jo relief work kiya jis tara se corona se ladhe lockdown me pressure sabdi hu nahi kiya ek alternative politics kiya tamil nadhu me bravid ideology bahut strong hai teriyar ko gali dene wale ko we will not accept so I think these three states kundicherry congress was not there in the fight BJP has taken I just went to the border of the kundicherry and we know how kind of sale purchase happened there so that's why you find the result in a different because there was no strong ground same thing in the Assam Assam people were angry people were ready to remove BJP but congress was not able to push till the boot the whole mechanism that you have to push and work till the end that has changed the scenario because in Assam there was anger I also want to highlight the fact of course in Kerala the current numbers show that the BJP which was really pushing for and was hoping to get many seats is now back to leading in just one seat which is the same as last time that is Ishtridharan in Palakar and even it's traditional lead constancy of Namam there trailing but also I just wanted to add to what Basha was saying in the sense that one of the interesting things about Kerala has been of course the relief work has been great the participatory nature of the relief has been great of course but also Kerala is innovated in terms of raising funds in the existing limitations in the federal limitations that's there and especially the formation of Kivbi and other financial instruments which actually provides a possible model for other states as well to break some of the limitations of the restrictions imposed by the centre and the centre really went against or went behind Kerala for that reason so like you said Kerala again in terms of policies as well as relief measures in terms of participation to be quite a model and finally just we have about 3-4 minutes just finally wanted to go to Assam as well Parjav if you could quickly start with you Basha already mentioned that there was a very strong undercurrent of opposition but there was not just enough organisation and Assam of course playing a key role in the BJP's rise to power over the past few years we saw the CAA protests you know there were a lot of it was centred in Assam so how do we see Assam in the next few years as well look we have the Amit Shah of the northeast and that's Ramantha Biswas Parva he's all powerful money power worked certainly worked better in Assam than it did in Bengal that's very clear to me also yes the fragmentation of the opposition the fact that the congress and the others were not as powerful despite its alliance with the BPF and with the AIDUF it was not that effective but Prasad if you will give me a few minutes I want to end on I mean why is today so significant why why is today so important today's election of Vidhan Sabha is in four states and in a union territory why is it so important I want to end on this look I will show you the chronology of our Maninian Prime Minister if you like chronology then we will show you the chronology in May 2014 in February in 2015 the Amadwee party's government was in Delhi in 2016 in November after 3 months the Uttar Pradesh elections were won Vidhan Sabha elections again there was no effect on the Amadwee we have won we have won with our daughter-in-law let's move on after that I forgot to say a little back in 2015 after 5 years Nitesh Kumar went with them in May 2018 do you know how to buy and sell GST goods and services tax then in December 2018 Rajasthan Madhya Pradesh in three states BGP lost you know that then people came to elections in 2019 Balakot, Pulwama Shaheen Bagh after that lockdown in March 2020 Krishak Kandolan in Delhi then the Amadwee party came back then I think that today's Vidhan Sabha the result of Nizmachand in the coming 3 years in the next 3 years this Modi government will have a huge effect because the moment this covid pandemic started the second surge of the covid pandemic has coincided with what has happened in Bengal and Bengal is very very important but also what happened in Tamil Nadu and of course Assam so in my opinion today is the second of May with May I am not 100% sure but we can look back as a day which perhaps was a kind of a watershed period full of Narendra Modi government which is about to complete 7 years in power Absolutely Thank you so much for that insight we had a we are almost down though I know just one thing I want to say that whatever are the result and we are little hopeful about Bengal we know and Kerala and Tamil Nadu it was on the expected line but what I want to say that the danger line is very wide open in during these elections that we have to understand very closely deliberately the way election commission performed the way all the institution performed and surrendered that shows the real threat and at the same time the way BJP RSS and the whole Hindu nationalist forces tried to make the inroad in all the states in all those states which were so far very difficult for them they were able to make their inroads that we have to understand because we may be very happy that in Bengal finally Mamta is back Kerala finally left Tamil Nadu came to the path but we have to understand their strategy their kind of effort they are putting and how the opposition and the leaders in the ground because next years coming years are going to be very dangerous and at the same time the threat to the institution that we have made the way it is in the whole Dharashahi coming days are very worrying as a journalist I have felt this time first time such a big threat such a threat where it is very difficult to write, to report, to tweet there were few results they gave some respite that nothing works as we believe but they are working to make India into a different way and they are working very hard the opposition where strong they are able to hold but this hold depends on how the leaders operate on the ground system is not going to help the institutions they are almost almost done absolutely, thank you so much for joining us today so like we conclude we have quite a few challenges for the Kerala LDF of course the question of how to expand its welfare policies its pro people policies its participatory policies into something more structural Stalin is going to face quite a bit of challenges in making sure that he doesn't lose the goodwill that he has gained in this election and bring back the ADMK again Mamta of course has won convincingly a lot of problems a lot of allegations that she has to deal with and resolve and finally for Amit Shahan, Narendra Modi this election will it lead to any change in attitudes even in the short run a better engagement, more transparency regarding the COVID-19 crisis which is our number one demand right now all these questions remain we will be back in a few hours with another panel to discuss the implications for national politics once the final results are out thank you so much for joining us add news click and keep watching us thank you