 The following is a presentation of TFNN The power trading hour with your host David white Call now call free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618 now David white Welcome all another excellent edition of the power trading hour Yeah, I forgot something Uh, yes, it's 50 off Karl Marx dolls today Uh during this show just uh just to remind you if you get the drift It's a deep joke today Uh 877-927-6648 Uh Well, what do we have going on? I think the big news happened to this morning about 10 a.m And we'll get a chart up here Earnings were pretty good We had somebody do something that is incredibly rare And that is uh go on one of the shows. I think it was CNBC could have been bloomberg or one of the other ones Uh didn't have a chance to watch it uh, but uh There's nothing like uh having a day where Hey, you're a little weak opening up already And the next thing you do is go on the media and tell everybody you're engaged in what's going to be a price war Intel basically saying it's going to cut and slash the price of its processors To compete more against AMD It's also going to uh Be incredibly aggressive on pricing. Uh its new video card line And is its video card is going to be as good as AMD's are Uh, uh Nvidia is probably not But the market's pretty pretty good about firing first and asking questions later Eventually Intel could if they stick with it Be uh be the spoiler for both of these but if you're wondering what Gut shot them earlier in the day and brought the market back a bit that was it Of course, uh that happened about the same time as the NASDAQ rolled back over fairly hard Uh and including the s&p 500 as yesterday I said that uh tops come in when everybody When the shorts can't short anymore, uh this morning's pop hire Saw a lot of people just get out of the way didn't see a lot of people shorting The news came in and that's when you start seeing these big moves lower Now does that mean that the bottom falls out before friday? Probably not my guess though is that the sell is in If you were brave enough to pull the trigger this morning The only thing I did was get out of my long position And uh decided to go short on it. Um after this news And make some of that ill gotten, uh cash come back I don't think we're done though Uh if uh you listen to uh when I have Tim Ward on every once in a while big fan of saying uh of uh, you know the highs generally are Shortable highs generally come on maybe wednesdays and fridays Uh and make you sweat all the weekend if it happens on a friday Um that actually came from some stuff where I did a test that was back in the 2000s But that is still fairly good So i'm just going to say that uh if you're short you probably stay short I wouldn't be adding a new position here Short right now. I think you could go sideways. Apple's probably going to be okay Will it make everybody forget the fact that uh that uh Intel is going to drop the baby Ruth in the punch bowl for high profit Uh desktop processors and video cards Probably not But You know, maybe you can get a bounce. Maybe you got too much short positions in it But going into a weekend you're already down five six seven percent on nvidia and AMD for the day It's tough to think that a lot of people throw themselves in front of that In front of that locomotive As I said, the best thing to do is go ahead and flip to the other side. I don't do um day trades uh per se in the newsletter. I'm looking for a bigger trend mostly because uh If you're just day trading, I mean literally in and out the same day Um, there's kind of too much lag for a newsletter to try to capture that And accurately occasionally i'll try options on expiration day and that kind of You have to kind of know that you know you get out. You don't wait for me kind of things But uh, certainly, uh AMD probably going to hit 100. I thought maybe today got down to 103 and kind of backed up a little bit here, but um Tomorrow 100 could be um already in a cell I'm suspecting that some of the bigger ETFs like arc and those folks Uh are Whether it's gonna it's true or not. It doesn't really matter They're going to continue to go after them after this bounce But we have the can as I said before we have I was waiting for uh the the Sign that the market went up and and the shorts couldn't pull the trigger most of them couldn't pull the trigger yet again um Does that mean that we instantly go down? No Does that mean that a high is probably in more than likely? Nothing works 100 in the market But certainly when that came in then intel news came out Pretty good sign that no matter what happens. There's going to be people throwing cold water On everything coming out in the near future. My guess is that there probably still some funds that are having some problems Um, my guess is that uh, you're swimming with the sharks Uh on wall street and they probably smell some blood in the water. So probably a lot of uh More negative news coming out. I think there can't be anything more negative than the response to gold It's down 30 uh 37 40 Since that suggests that it could all go all the way back to 1600 now And it seems almost impossible The only time I've seen this before is in the deflationary uh environments And what if we did see um a big change? And that was uh, maybe the energy prices for some reason that I do not fathom now Take a giant plunge Uh, the inflation instantly goes away The fed has higher rates and they pulled the money out of the bond market all at once um You know, there are some things that could go on out here. Um, like I said, uh When facts change, you know, what is it? Keane said when the facts change, I changed my mind also. What do you do, sir? Because someone said, hey, you changed your mind. Hey Uh, we have that ability And the capability and the right to do that as traders things will change the stories will change So, yeah, um, could we see a hundred dollars on amd today? Uh, I wouldn't put it out the out of the realm of possibility um, you know, we saw those rolling auctions, um and The bounce out of the that move We had the opportunity to hold it today needed to be about 4400 I knew we were probably going to bounce up there Yesterday, I put that out in an update to my subscribers and that was that yesterday's move was overdone We also had one of the highest short rates Of all time Yesterday going into the flows that almost always leads to a bounce Doesn't mean the direction of the market changes does mean though that the shorts will probably be Uh, squeezed out before the turn does come We'll be back in a minute and we've got lots of stuff to talk about today Are you grinding in the market? 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So you have nothing to risk Level the playing field with the task profile scanner, which you can find under the services tab at tfnn.com Sign up today Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis And it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com And tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv live every market day from 8 30 a.m To 4 p.m. Eastern for free Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different shows with expert hosts To help you make the right moves with your money watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel And become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors At 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 I'm going to bypass history today. Nothing the interest happened Just kidding. I had somebody ask me a question and I said I'd answer on here today Uh, what is zero trust in computer security? um I've talked about this before The idea was before that you had this big computer You had castle walls all around it and you just assume the castle wall is going to keep everybody out once they got in There's nothing to stop them. Everybody's on the wall. Nobody's inside next to the king And that's the way that both hardware and software have been used Once you're inside the castle the idea was that you're one of us and so you should be okay And once someone got in and snuck in then they could just mingle with all the other What are the what are the people that lived inside a castle called? I don't know I'm sure that that the castle dwellers Although I bet there's a probably a better name for them. Um, are just thought to be a loyal subjects of the king Anyway, uh zero trust is not a technology. It's a strategy And that's why it's kind of hard to invest in I went after one company that was doing it early on And most of the bigger companies really did not In adopt it as quickly as I thought they might we made some money on the trades Uh, but eventually kind of went away and it split I can't even remember the name of the company now Maybe I'm blocking it out because I thought that they had was one of those companies that had an enormous amount of Opportunity and didn't I mean did a little bit but did not do it Um Arthur what's the name of that company? If he's listening, I'll think of that. I want to say fire or something I'm blocking it out now. Anyway, this the strategy is never trust always verify doesn't matter if you're calling in or outside You need to be treated the exact same way Um, there's no there's no higher level of trust inside the castle walls and outside of it Uh implement a lease privilege That you actually need to get the job done, which means that you don't come in and automatically get uh upgraded If you come in you just need to look at something Uh, you don't get uh, you don't get uh rights to everything And uh, lastly always assume you've got a breach going on And you've got a team already set up to handle it go back and figure out how to Fix what's broken if they broke anything why they were in the system But a hard one to actually invest in But uh, many people around the many companies are slowly Moving to the idea of castle or from the idea castle walls to the zero trust thing But that uh is why it's been kind of tough to get Uh a uh good idea on where the play is for these companies that uh are in hack 877-97-6648 Uh other things uh, as we said, uh, we had a selling climax Uh, generally doesn't mean the market's done Just means that it's done for a little bit We talked about that earlier this week We were waiting for the market to kind of turn around go back up give us the kind of thing I know it's been a long time. It's been What since uh 2009 that we really had any kind of market that could be Declared the kind of bear market that we've already seen in the last week or two They tend to uh come very briefly and very succinctly to begin with Um, I put that back up here Uh as we look at intel anyway, uh intel already has uh 60. Oh, let's update that. I bet it's 70 million shares now uh intel Yeah, 66 million shares into a 41 million share low already, uh Uh, probably not going to get any better and Remind me to talk about how apple and intel were late going back to 1987 on this subject Anyway, um, I wanted to show this because I showed it twice once before I left for christmas vacation And once now where's it at? There it is And we talked about it john john paul rod rig on transport geography.org has this chart Uh, it's been around for I think 20 years now. I remember seeing it for a long time I said this is the most important chart that you need to know Where you're at in the market And yesterday I and this morning, I think was the top of the return to normal Uh, this chart outlines in broad outlines where you need to think you are Uh to trade, uh the markets uh now the one thing that happens is That there's another thing that I haven't talked about called the rule of alternation I've brought it up from time to time any kind of trading strategy there's generally a At least a pebble of truth that you can use into the future and one of the ones for, uh What is it prector steel? is a thing called the rule of alternation and it tends to work enough that you should think about it and that is If you get a real sharp straight move down You tend to get a violent, uh, kind of move back up. That's kind of hard to figure Uh, and then each leg will have kind of a different character as it goes on Traditionally they're from the return to normal. I'm showing now back to the pit of despair and princess bride dear Uh Is a uh capitulation phase that capitulation phase generally is not just straight down It is a complex, uh Takes two steps down three steps backwards two steps forward two steps down At this point if you are bearish The way to generally make money is just sit on your hands And it's going to take a lot because you're going to have a lot more like you had in the last Uh two days where you drove it up to 44 50 Gave it all up in a day drove it back to what 44 20 or something today gave it all up, um Then you come down here and it doesn't break And you're going okay that is I'm going to cover And generally that isn't the way to do it if you believe that you're in that return to normal Uh down to fear and capitulation Phase and which means that the market's going to come back Uh and probably break through the mean growth level going back 50 years And then you're going to come back up If you want to go back to the charts and look at this It is the three months or four months Or five months I think five months before uh the uh Before uh march fifth of 2009 Uh because that was one of my biggest wins of all time and I don't know if I'm ever going to get a position Quite like that again Uh, but that's when um on march fifth I bought four companies all of them had tested the previous lows on 10 percent of the volume They had several times before and there were stocks that I Most people just would never ever think of Uh, I didn't know what was going to go up in the market But I knew that at 10 of the previous low 10 1 out of 10 million shares couldn't get 100 000 shares down at the low I knew those were the ones to go after uh See what is it the canadian solar? I'll think of the rest of them, but uh, you know Until you find some kind of low where we get significantly lighter quality And I mean something ridiculously like that If probably if I'm right Uh looking at that two steps forward three steps back one step forward three steps back Uh going forward. We'll be back in a minute. Are you having fun trading the markets? 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No I think a lot of this has to do with computers There's a thing in machine learning called optimal brain damage and um kind of Everything has kind of an allegory in computer science machine learning artificial intelligence uh, but the one in this one is that uh You don't want to get stuck for too long On a uh on a path either up or down in the markets So that you should only remember a certain amount of stuff and then forget everything else and So i'm going to say that most of this Uh have been uh, or most of the stuff that we've seen these wide swings in our day Our computer is pushing around the market. I don't think the robin hood traders are fast enough It takes a lot of mental dexterity to follow as hard as these things have gone but You know what else can you say? Uh, but no I You know at the piece at pace or rapidity You would have to have everybody marching uh in uh block step I kind of like the uh guys in the 300 going. Huh? I like that movie That gladiator Jimmy All I can think is that line from uh airplane now Jimmy have you watched any movies about gladiators? um but anyway Certainly one of the things you should think about anyway Uh, oh, I wanted to get back to the yes. Thank you, uh, ron Who uh brought up uh in the video more about why i'm comparing intel to uh macintosh in 1987 And that is when they kicked steve jobs out of uh That he said the the thing to do to be long term successful in the market Uh would be to go down the same road that um that Microsoft did which it it just licensed operating system But they would do it a little bit differently and that would be they'd have to approve Uh The uh machines that did it they just wouldn't like clones have it. They let other big manufacturers make them and take the low margin hardware build and take uh the high margin software development part of it and Man, you would have think uh thought he started uh Going off with serrat syndrome and uh attacking every um uh person of uh any color whatsoever even transfer apparent folks But if you wondered why steve jobs got kicked out of Apple that is the reason why it was a bridge too far To let anybody in the investment world not out easily and they thought that if they Can him brought in uh, what's his name scully from uh Pepsi Uh to take over that would be it. So they kicked him out put in somebody that Knew a lot about business but didn't know much about computers And of course that went on for a while Uh being a caretaker, but a lot of times, um these people if they have a lot of money invested Because they did in apple The only thing that they're worried about is not the long term viability of your company But uh the return of their money Uh fairly quickly before they can try something else. They didn't bet on apple Having and changing its model midstream. They wanted none of that chance So, uh, they candy got him out the door That was it and of course you wonder what if they wouldn't have done that if they would have taken the long term if that would have happened What i'm going to tell you is That wall street hates it. It hates it with a passion. It doesn't like any company changing its model Even if uh intel decides to come back in six months and raise prices on its desktop processors It does not like a price war It hurts everybody in the market. I'm surprised that he still hadn't been fired by the end of the day Because most people in technology that have talked about lowering margins That's a bridge too far, but uh hadn't happened yet But uh when you're wondering about why apple took such a dive You earnings were that not bad? No, they're just say hey We we look forward we're dropping our margins to get market share back Uh, we gave that up by not being competitive And now we're going to be competitive, but you know what it's going to do it's going to absolutely Beat that bottom line Most people I talk about it from time to time, but if you've never been in retail sales margin Is uh exactly what keeps you from going bankrupt It doesn't matter whether you're selling computers selling anything else a lot of people think well if you can make if you can Make something for a dollar and sell it for a buck fifty Then you got to be okay The problem is that's not the way it works The way it works is if you are selling it for a dollar 70 And you start taking a dollar 50 Wall street assumes that you're going to be down to a buck 25 or a buck 20 Um, I've had this Siri for a long time. It's uh ended up serving me well but uh Just go in and ask any lawyer of any type That you want to do anything Just you want to say something nice They'll tell you no you don't do that literally A lawyer will never tell you really most times. I guess maybe Uh criminal lawyers are different, but if you're saying should I sign this contract? Absolutely not because if something comes back at them guess who you blame you charge the money They don't want to be in that position You go into a uh, and this is the other side of that you go into a doctor He asked you how much you drink you say you have one beer before you go to bed every night He's going to assume that you have six beers the night and you're alcoholic You can't be trust you you can't tell the truth to a doctor and you can't ask permission from an attorney and Those are kind of some parables that you should look at when these big guys and wall street are buying and selling stocks how they think They think like a doctor if you're telling them a little lower And if you ask permission, they'll always say no to anything new They don't want it They bet on the horse that they bought when they got uh into your company and bought 10 million shares They don't want that story changing. They're going to wait and see what happens. This is the big guys The smaller guys, maybe the story's good. Maybe it's not wall street assumes That you are telling them that you're drinking one beer at night and That you're telling them that they know they just know Drinking six beer aging alcoholic. We'll be back after Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area? Including the surrounding st. 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That's seven two seven three two nine 83 22 call us today The technology around us is changing every day with so much happening It can seem impossible to keep up with all the information David white's investment newsletter the technology insider is designed to give you all the information you need to understand the technology That shapes today's markets and tomorrow's future David white has made his living staying on the cutting edge of technology His weekly newsletter will give you specific recommendations for value tech stocks As well as entry prices target prices and stops to set for each trade Dave delivers his weekly newsletters every friday with updates throughout the week You can get the technology insider at tfnn.com for only 37 dollars and 50 cents Sign up for david's newsletter the technology insider and get an inside look at everything the technology sector has to offer Try it risk-free today with our 30-day money back guarantee tfnn educating investors Are china a shares hot or not? If you trade china a shares now may be time to take a closer look Trade chau or chad Directions daily csi 300 china a share bull and bear etf's china a shares in either direction Visit direction investments.com today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus Please contact direction shares at eight six six four seven six seven five two three The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk Including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four-side fund services llc Don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day Go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv That's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv As we return, uh, we got a lot of stuff You'll go to the den got any questions on data dog um You had your first test pretty good test Down here, uh What is that uh august? September october november december august fifth He thanks uh 1.7 or excuse me 11.7 million shares back on that august fifth date. It tested it with uh 7.4 um You know fairly light volume Um, it went to exactly as I talk about how many times where you uh want to use the art of the charts for looking for these double uh Double uh gaps and it almost comes in right in very close back here. Um You bounced you had some decent volume I think the company's pretty good But I think you probably get one more test down there Uh, you see it at about three million shares probably means the rest of the market's tested too Uh, I had some stocks that I loved And wanted to be in and i'm out of because I fear the next uh Move down which could be to 400 excuse me 4 000 on the s and p And you know when we look back at it will the line be a straight line down? Yeah If you stand back about 10 feet, but it'll be probably a little rough as I said earlier But even great companies are going to have problems in this leg now Does it start instantly today? No Uh, but I do think it starts probably tomorrow's close Uh Okay 877 9276648. Oh, yeah, I posted that part of kentucky fried movie probably the best movie of all time Although it will offend everyone Uh, it is uh, it came out the same year that saturday night live came on and the The guy that made animal house and airplane and all of those guys were all involved Uh, but uh, you know, is it a low budget? Yeah, but it is especially historically absolutely Uh, I laughed so hard in the theater. I threw up in 1976 or 77 when I saw it I remember laughing that hard and if you're a man of a certain age or a woman It is hysterical all I could think about was someone someone said something in the den is a scene Where I posted it in the den where they Where they're ripping off or making fun of spoofing enter the dragon And there's so many little things in that thing that if you knew the uh Knew the history of its time that are hysterical But uh from argon energy the ad about recycling Recycling the oil from combs of young kids and uh other folks just a ton of stuff that uh, is it there 877-927-6648, uh lary pezzavento In the bullpen warming up for tom at three o'clock and uh, I think that's it. Uh What else do we have here? We got another question Okay Okay, you missed my question according to the robin hood retail weekly option of buying this recent trend to retail Uh day trading large volumes of weekly operation causing big moves in the market And futures due to option market makers taking the other side and hedging No, I think it is uh All computer-based high frequency trading right now that are causing that we had those big moves the reason why If your uh belief was true You would see that hedging in the dark pool numbers And as I said normally you have about 36 37 38 percent Uh of the trades are in a dark pool so they can avoid those high frequency bozos Siphoning off money When they do their trades, uh, mostly they're going to be in that So if you think it's retail traders doing a great big deal in that market, that's true But the opposite is true also, which is that you would see a lot more action by the guys in the dark pool You are not seeing it. You saw a lot of the folks Uh over the last four or five six days pull back And most of the volume was in the retail trader So there wasn't that many people doing the opposite side of that If they were a lot of it had to do probably with high frequency traders so Most of the people we see the big hedge funds just can't move that much now They have some kind of model and they have a computer that implements that model uh, but uh Most of these guys have just given up On fighting the high frequency traders But one thing you can't do as a retail trader is avoid them Uh, I think interactive brokers may be the only broker that allows you Uh access to that But you uh, it's different than paying a fee Um, if you pay a fee, I think you can But I am not sure Uh eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight email me at path at tfnn.com Okay, uh, what else do we have out here more? All of garden is sending me warm feelings this winter Although it's warmed up here today. I was able to go out without my jacket on Uh, let's see what else we have here in the emails Okay Oh, yes, I had not played it and I'm going to do it. We got two minutes. That's enough time Uh, I'll do it. Well, yeah, I'll do it now and then I'll answer g7's question in the den We talked, uh, maybe a week or 10 days ago about making long range predictions Uh, if uh, you watch joe rogan's podcast from yesterday The first 10 15 minutes is all about why most of these models are going to break long term Why you should watch them more in a short term? I brought up, uh, instance, uh, jeff instance Who's kind of the godfather of machine learning artificial intelligence and his speech, but I think now I don't have enough time now I ran out. I'm doing the lead up, but uh, maybe I'll play that tomorrow Or maybe in the next one. Let's take a look at the smh's here Uh, when I start a short here on the smh's no My guess is there going to be a lot of phony upgrades You got apple coming out after the bell tonight My guess is if you wanted to start a short position It's either going to be on the close tomorrow Or it's going to be sunday night futures fun time Uh, I particularly don't want to sweat it. I'm going to make take the easier trade And probably wait till sunday night and see what's going on But uh, yeah, I You if you've got to do an equity and your only option is Pulling a a squeeze out, um Would be whether is this going to break? It's very tough to see with intel and the rest of these things headed lower Uh, there's anything better going to happen out here. I suspect that we're probably going to see amd and intel Continue to sell into the close out here, although they had a little bit of a bounce But uh, no, I think maybe you hope a little bit higher tomorrow to pull the trigger Uh, the easier safer bet doesn't mean it's going to happen. Just wait till sunday night try to be back Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis And it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv Live every market day from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern for free Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different shows with expert hosts To help you make the right moves with your money Watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel and become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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That's 877-518-9190 Catch Tom O'Brien professional trader and educator founder of TFNN also a special guest on CNBC Tom will bisect and dissect the markets the Tom O'Brien show next on TFNN As we get ready to close the day out. I didn't want to uh play this a little bit from uh Jeff Hinton He spells it with a g he's one of those jeffs Jeffrey Hinton um he's kind of the godfather of Of machine learning, but I brought this up and read it last week But I'll want to play it again in this final video I was tempted to make some predictions about the future of research on neural networks Instead i'm going to explain to you why it would be extremely foolish to try and make any long-term predictions I'm going to try and explain why we can't predict the long-term future by using an analogy Imagine you're driving a car at night and you're looking at the tail lights of the car in front The number of photons that you receive from the tail lights of the car in front falls off as 1 over d squared Where d is the distance to the car in front? That's assuming that the air is clear, but now suppose there's fog over short ranges The number of photons you get from the tail lights in front of you still falls off as 1 over d squared Because over a short range the fog hardly absorbs any light But for large distances it falls off as e to the minus d and that's because fog has an exponential effect Fog absorbs a certain fraction of the photons per unit distance So for small distances fog looks very transparent, but for large distances it looks very opaque So the car in front of us becomes completely invisible at a distance at which our short range model the 1 over d squared model Predicts it will be very visible that causes people to drive into the back of cars in fog It kills people the development of technology is also typically exponential So over the short term things appear to change fairly slowly and it's easy to predict progress All of us for example can probably make quite good guesses about what will be in the iphone 6 But in the longer run our perception of the future hits a wall just like with fog So the long-term future machine learning and neural nets is really a total mystery We've no idea what's going to happen in 30 years time There's just no way to predict it from what we know now because we're going to get exponential progress So that was him I think in 2016 maybe I don't know it's been a long time ago since I took that close Hang on for lary pezzavento sitting in for the great one tom o brian So when you can not when you have to we'll see you here tomorrow same bat channel same bat time