 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network It is a massive day in major league baseball because today is the opening day of all four Divisional series across major league baseball. It's gonna be a delight We're gonna break things down from a strikeout prop perspective with Rob Friedman pitching Ninja getting his thoughts on today's games And we'll take our first look at week six to get you set for the NFL as well This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire.com My name is Jim Saunders. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire com joined here once again by Rob Friedman Check him out on Twitter at pitching Ninja. He is on MLB. He's on Fox Nessin and peacock and Rob. It's the opening day of the divisional series I feel like you've got to be jacked right now. How you doing? I am jacked It's the morning though Like I'm just getting around to getting ready for the games getting psyched up gradually because I don't want to peek But the problem is the game started one like you don't got a lot of time to ramp up like It's the Braves in a minute Lana, I've got I know but if I if I if I get too fired up now I'll be petered out by one and certainly by the whatever the late game is Yeah, 937 p.m. Eastern is the the Dodgers Padres game. I'm I'm old man Like that's 937 is when I start to prepare for bed typically so they're pushing it this year Oh, yeah, totally agree and and like they don't understand like how tough this is for me like I so one one to midnight is 11 hours of you Chopping up, you know clips at least not like 16 games one at once You get some commercial breaks and stuff like that in there, but like that's all that's all stretched out schedule I should consider things over there. It is. It's tough being me You know watching all these games and putting them on social media and stuff like yeah Everybody out there feel sorry for me. I think they consider the gifts guys like let's go. Come on Let's let's I mean you you do stuff for MOB like I just put in the word, you know I just say hey by the way Consider the ninja at some times. Yeah, the problem is then they'll do them all at one time and that's worse for me Like it's definitely worse because I'll be sitting there going. Oh my god Like I have to flip between screens like no matter what I'm gonna wine And I shouldn't wine because I get to watch baseball all day and there's nothing better than that So I'm excited. It's gonna be a great day of of baseball and let's go. So let's talk about it Let's talk about that great day of baseball We're talking about your pitching props for today in a second But first of all to talk to you because strikeout props are always lower this time of year It's in part because like you're facing good teams and they grind out at bats But also pitch counts are tough to pin down That's the issue I've been having is I get very nervous about betting K props this time of year because it's hard to know It seems like it's kind of a mentality thing though both by the team and the pitcher So what are you kind of using to judge? How long do you think a guy will go in a game when you're making these strikeout recommendations? That is a great Point and a lot of times it's a balance like I I like a pitcher who's been there a pitcher That that's a horse with a bullpen that they kind of want to make sure they don't overextend early So it's like you have to guess and all the best guess is like this is tough and You know for folks out there Yeah I watch a lot of baseball and a lot of baseball like I probably watch more pitchers than anybody Around yeah, and it doesn't mean you're gonna be right because there's so many variables and this is one big one like there are teams That just don't K They grind out at bats. I thought the I mean I thought the Mets had some great at bats in the last series I think you know Cleveland's always got got a good approach at the plate That doesn't mean anything if they're facing a Pitcher that's still going at them But it's something you have to keep in mind and and and also do teams want to get to hand it off to the bullpen early Get a win or they're gonna ride their horse and say yeah I think it's just point to keep in mind as you open up Fandall Sportsbook you check out the strikeout numbers They're gonna feel low when you look at them But that's for a reason and that's because of the things you just mentioned So just keep that in mind when you look at them. Don't just you know make sure you keep that in mind So let's open up the board for you Rob when you look at the Pitching props available for today at Fandall Sportsbook, which ones do you feel confident in based on the combination of factors? We just discussed. Yeah based on the combination of factors I'm going Garrett Cole six K's or more and then I'm gonna do a same game parlay with furlander for seven K's or more And Logan Gilbert for four K's or more and I think that all those guys are Horses, you know, we've seen these guys go deep in games throughout the year Cole went like 120 pitches at one point verlander We know he can go deep hasn't done it a ton this year But I think that was in part because they had October in mind for him I want to start things off here with verlander facing over the Mariners That's a that's a pretty tough lineup But I think that the the the big thing there is Especially the second half of the year verlander turned into a higher strikeout pitcher than he was the first half What led to that search for him, you know, that's a great question. It's hard to tell I just thought he looked very very sharp and locked in probably wanted to drive home the Cy Young Award Maybe was yeah, yeah being healthy coming back saying this is the stretch run I'm gonna I want to carry this team to the World Series. I you know, I'm in a Cy Young race I want to win that he wants to win everything and that's Verlator in this like that's why I feel good about that number is he's been really sharp and Dude is a competitor and I know he just wants to show his stuff in this game And he's shown that stuff throughout the entire year. We know what Max or what just a legend. Yeah, he's a legend He's been fantastic And I think that that side of the game. It's easy to have a lot of faith in there now Logan Gilbert not as proven in the postseason, but I'm actually on board with you I was gonna ask you about Logan Gilbert in the alternate market for him to get five plus strikeouts is plus 172 You've got him at four plus, which is minus 140 right now at Bandual sports book part of the reason why the counterpoint to mine is that the Seattle bullpen is sick and You could see a case where they're like, okay, we don't want him going too far in games But Gilbert, I mean, I don't care about like, you know, what he did against the Astros in the regular season He was sick. He was very good in those matches. That doesn't hurt things and also it seemed like recently Kind of a little bit more strikeout juice. He's got that competitive nature So I got on and because of the way he pitched down the stretch and having faith in him in this matchup What put you on Gilbert for today? I think a lot of it's that so what I was torn for torn by with with Gilbert is The line between getting keyed up and wanting to dominate and getting too key Yeah, and and like he he is talk about a competitor that dude breaks out a whole different personality when he's on the bomb And sometimes it works out really well and other times, you know If you can get over keyed up and I'm I'm hoping that he's been through this season enough that he knows exactly how Hype he needs to get. Yeah, but yeah, he absolutely can you know can can Kay a bunch of folks He can touch, you know upper 90s with his fastball and and when he's pitch when he's on He's he's tough. So yeah, like It's a crap shoot like I was wondering the same thing That's why I was a little bit lower with the 4ks on him because he could you know, he could K7 or 8 You don't know and and the bullpen. Yeah, and the bullpen things loaded So do you want to hand it off or did I want to make sure if you shoot it all at once? You know, do you have that bullpen later in the series? Maybe you want to let him go a little longer, right? It's a tough balance for sure And I think that that's that's a concern with him But I think that I have faith in the pitcher and it's the other factors that could give you pause But I think that's why I was on Gilbert person. Let's talk about Garrett Cole You mentioned that that Guardians team how disciplined they are with having good played appearances and making sure they are Making that pitcher work. They're putting the ball in play. They've got a lot of guys with a contact type profile What does Garrett Cole do that better positions him to get strikeouts against that lineup? What most guys do to me it's a combination of his experience. So he is your horse. He is an elite pitcher in the major leagues I know he's up and down sometimes with you know performance stuff But I know he wants it too. Yeah, and having a guy like that to lead off set the tone He knows how important that is he is a pitcher that even if you're trying to make contact he throws so hard and has such good stuff. I don't know that it matters and You know, that's the flips I like it could be Cleveland Just they try to grind out at bats the whole game, but is that going to be effective against, you know, 99 100? It might not be I mean it's not to be effective against I care like you said There can be times where let's some home runs and stuff like that But even in those games the strikeouts are typically still there So the before the three leg parlay for Rob here Logan Gilbert four plus strikeouts individual leg there minus 140 Justin Verlander seven plus strikeouts individual leg there plus 118 Then Cole six plus strikeouts minus 172 for a combined three leg parlay of plus 468 over at fangirls sportsbook and Rob, I think even if these don't hit we're still winners We get to watch Justin Verlander. We get to watch Garrett Cole. We get to watch Max Freed on the bump today So that's a that's a good day of baseball and I'm excited to see how it all goes And we just get to talk baseball so we're winners automatically like just doing this we're winners I could I golly more. I could not agree more That is Rob Freeman check him out on Twitter at pitching ninja find his work at MLB Fox Nessun and peacock Rob enjoy today get some coffee breaks in you know get some food in you at some points to to try to marathon this whole thing and Looking forward to talking to you again some pointer in this postseason. Well, it's been great as always Yeah, I'm cooking ribs during the game. So this should be fun. Yeah, good day. Okay That'll help with making it 11 hours and having ribs on the ribs available to you. Totally. Alrighty. Thank you, Rob Enjoy the baseball for today Alrighty, that was Rob Freeman check him out on Twitter at pitching ninja and watch some fantastic gifts and some fantastic Baseball throughout the day for today. We're gonna break down my first look at NFL week number six here in just one second But first quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts You of course are an Apple podcast Spotify Stitcher Google podcasts You name it you can find us there and while you're there if you like what you hear Leave us a rating and review as well Twisted tea and fangal join force to bring you a one-of-a-kind contest series It gives you a chance to compete for your share of thousands of dollars in site credit introducing twisted tea is college football picks a Sports betting focused contest series that's entirely free to play the contest is simple Each college football game will be assigned money line a spread and total markets with assigned points to each market All you have to do is make six selections based on those three markets and their points for each correct Selection you made that the end of the day your score ranks among the best in the contest You will be eligible for your share of site credit head to fangal.com Twisted tea picks and make your picks and reminder Please drink Responsibly let's dig in here to NFL week number seven week number seven Who kind of jump ahead week number six here and break down where my numbers are showing value Across fangal sports book one of these is one that has been a bit on the move Throughout this morning as potentially a reaction to last night That is a cheese taste facing off against the Buffalo Bills and right now over at fangal You can't get the cheese plus three that is minus one fourteen I'm showing value there, but also I think I'd kind of rather go with the cheese money line that's plus one thirty right now at fangal sports book and I want that My numbers actually the chief should be favored in this game by one point four nine points so four point four nine points deviant what the market says and That is my model that can that combines a preseason prior with what teams have done so far this year I'm also running alter alternate model right now that does look at just 2022 It's not my betting model, but it's one that I want to look at to kind of judge. Okay Am I underreacting to what we've seen so far this year by that model the bills should be favored That's fair because they're the best in football based on that 2020 only model But it's only by point two one points and that's what gives me more faith in going with the cheese money line Once again at plus one thirty obviously the cheese just played a huge game on monday night They had to you know press for that entire game Whereas the bills got to coast for like the final three quarters of sunday now they go to kent city I think that those factors do favor the bills Do they favor them enough to get this money line to plus one thirty and make me feel good about Backing the bills in this one. No, I want to go with the chiefs here both my models aligned and saying the chiefs are undervalued So to me the first bet I'm locking in week number six will be the cheese money line Plus one thirty against the bills in that game in kent city We could see that number could keep on moving because it was plus one eighteen this morning Um, so you could see more movement, but honestly if you want the plus three, I'd probably get that now I there's no chance. I don't think we get three and a half Maybe hold off you want the money line, but personally plus one thirty. I'm ready to fire and we'll take that there I think that is Further than it should have gone based on what we've seen so far from these two teams another money line At like four this week is actually on another island game That is the thursday night game Potentially the grossest game the entire week that is the commanders at the bears and the commander's money line right now Is plus 104 and I will be willing to take that right now on the commander side of plus 104 obviously Bad vibes that the commanders right now. We saw that ron Rivera press conference yesterday talking about how The quarterback was the reasoning their team had had struggled But my number said the commanders favored by 1.56 in this game. The spread is at one point I want the money line here to get the commanders at plus 104 And if I again turn to that 2022 only model so focusing on The commanders this year with karsten wenz that says they should be favored by 1.4 points And again, they're underdogs in this game slight dogs, but dogs nonetheless so similar to the cheese one The betting model that I use the one that combines a prior with what we've seen so far this year It says the commander should be favored and the 2022 only model says they should be favored as well So again, I like it when those two were in agreement. I'm not leaning a ton on the 2022 only model It's kind of more of a check with me kind of thing to make sure I'm not overreacting to or underreacting to certain stuff And when they bolt the line, I will take that So commanders plus 104 the bears won around the football but the commanders pretty good against that rank They rank third against the rush based on my number. So They should be pretty able to Keep the bears very good rushing offense and check and that gives me faith in plugging them at plus 104 against chicago So cheese plus 130 bears plus 104 the other one is uh one. I am delighted to get to talk about and that is betting against a team that has Giving me a lot of extra gray hairs so far this year. Uh, that's the arizona cardinals I finally get to bet against them that money line for seattle on the opposing side of that game Is plus 120 So we're getting seattle here as Home underdogs against an arizona team that has been Dysfunctional so far this year now. I do have a downgrade in seattle For rashad penny being out Obviously, you don't see a lot of running backs who truly truly moved the needle penny has been that like his rushing efficiency Has been off the charts both last year in this year. So not having rashad penny in this game Does negatively impact seattle for me But kenneth walker Very good Early down back based on what you showed in michigan state had a huge touchdown run last week I think it is partly infrastructure in seattle penny was great But like they have a good infrastructure in place. It's still allowed them to be good even with no rashad penny. So I think the offense will still be fine. Uh, the priors Model that I have here does favor seattle by point three oh points in this game So plus 120 in the money line it has moved. So I would get this one now if you want to bet it Because I think that it is moving towards seattle's direction the 2022 only model heavily favors seattle here. So Again alignment between those two. So I will go to seattle plus 120 against arizona And I would get that one now because I think that one will continue to shift towards The seahawks in this game one other one i'm I'm gonna do but i'm less confident in than the other ones is a cowboy's money line at plus 190 Against the eagles. I've got the cowboys at 37.7 percent to win this game. They're implied odds are 34.5 percent but that's what the cowboys being Moderately, I think that I'm kind of low on them in my numbers, but still showing a bit of value here. I've been hesitant to React to cooper rush playing. Well, obviously that could play. Uh, I don't I'm based on what I've heard this morning Based on what I've read. I don't think he's gonna play But like, you know, there's a shot he could play and that'd be an upgrade for sure but I'm assuming right now cooper rush would be the quarterback here and Obviously sunday was not a result of cooper rush didn't play that great the offense enough to do a whole lot to win that game I've been hesitant to top the cowboys in my number So I think that what I have for dallas right now is a fairly conservative estimation of what their offense will be Under cooper rush against this eagles eagles defense But i'm still showing a bit of value on their money line at plus 190 so if you were asking me to to Rattle off my level of confidence in each of these money lines I would say the cowboys are last still willing to do it, but they are last for me I would say seattle's probably the one I had the most confidence in uh plus 120 against arizona I would say cheese plus 130 against the bills is next up uh, uh, and then uh I go commanders thirst because it's hard to have a lot of faith in a team quarterback by karson wenz so My favorite bet so far this week is seattle plus 120 I would go to the cheese next plus 130 against bills or plus plus three if you want to go that route instead Then the commanders plus 104 and then the cowboys Plus 190 against the eagles. I took it but I understand if you don't want to go that route because It's hard to justify betting against the eagles with how they've been playing so far this year There are some other spots where i'm showing value, but i'm not going to bet it at least as of now I'm showing value in the steward's money line plus 300 against the bucks lesson learned not a huge gap I'm not gonna Go at that one there. So i'm passing at the steward's right now I'm showing value of the patriots plus three in their game against cleveland I kind of want to see what mac jones status is because I'm not sure how big of a downgrade I would make it to be bailey zappy for this game, but I kind of want to have more clarity in the situation I think of the ones that i'm not betting yet That's the one that i'm most willing to bite on later on this week depending where the markets go so holding off For where that one is right now On the patriots plus three against the browns. I've shown value in the panthers money line at plus 385 against the rams I have a downgrade in there for pj walker, but like also wolf um I get the rams have not looked good, but yikes, uh yikes buddy. I've had Bad selection this year if I look at all the the money lines are my numbers have shown value I've you know, it's uh a decent roi But I haven't taken a lot of the ones that have had the best returns. Maybe this is one where i'm like Okay, I can't bet this and it winds up cashing. I don't care. I I don't want I don't want to bet this carolina team right now on the money line plus 385 I will pass there the final one where i'm showing value that i'm not betting right now is the giant's money line at Plus 190 against ravens the reason i'm not going here is I think that my model is a bit too low on the ravens It's not a huge gap between what my numbers have and what the market has So that's why i'm a bit hesitant there now the 2022 only model which I think is Is a better judge Of the ravens and then my priors model that one does still show value in the giant said plus 190, but um, you know So both my numbers my models do align and saying the giants are value here I don't quite feel good enough about it though to actually fire. So I'll hold off there. So the ones i'm i'm officially recommending for today Are the chiefs plus 130 money line commanders money line plus 104 the seahawks money line plus 120 and the cowboys money line Plus 190 against eagles less confident in that one But still one i am willing to ride with here on tuesday, of course We'll have more thoughts on this week six sleigh, which is a really fun one coming up on thursday Their full betting breakdown and then on friday while jg's accuracy on talk player props as well Let's now dig into our recap of last week as we do each and every week here on covering the spread Starting the college side and had a couple I think that is uh found them on twitter at power rank Couple bets on tcu kansas and it depends on when you got those because when we talked it was tcu minus seven The total was 68 and a half. I had like tcu minus seven and the over at 68 and a half I was actually able to get tcu minus six and a half after we spoke. Uh, I believe they got that on late wednesday it was six and a half It did get to seven and a half at one point So clearly once it got six and a half money came in on tcu Once it got seven and a half money came in on kansas and it went back to seven and it closed there Total closed at 70 and a half So I cashed tcu minus six and a half because they finished at seven exactly ed pushed on minus seven I feel pretty lucky to win that one with jill and daniels getting banged up. Um Obviously they still played very well without him. Um, and you know, it wasn't lighting things up there so I feel pretty lucky to have cashed that bet but uh Still a nice read by ed there ed got the over at 68 and a half to finish with 69 So hopefully you got there before that total got up to 70 and a half to get the over on that one But at 68 and a half ed got that one and then had the push on tcu minus seven if you got a six and a half You got the win there as well Uh, but overall I think a pretty good day for add on the college side of things On the nfl side pretty mixed week for me the stupid cardinals finally paid off I got them a plus five and a half They did cover that they lost by three and I said on tuesday The reason I was going with the cardinals plus five and a half as opposed to the money line was because I didn't want to risk cliff kingsbury Messing up my money with a laking decision Turns out it was kyler murray. I had to worry about not cliff kingsbury But hey didn't worry that much as long as they didn't go to ot and give up a touchdown I was going to be okay, and that's how things played out. They missed the field goal So did get the cardinals plus five and a half I pushed on the vikings minus seven, but I also had them in a two leg teaser with the bucks That was the bug the vikings minus one bucks minus two and a half We talked on tuesday the vikings one by seven bucks one by five That was minus 134 for the two leg teaser That went pretty well there Obviously they didn't play as well as I thought they might but Still, uh, that's why we do teasers every now and then again They're not a huge part for me just because I need to have value in both sides Uh, it's in tb only to bet it but um, that one did work out there I had the bangles plus 150 on the money line So I actually did like zack taylor going for the touchdown on fourth down I thought that that was the best route to potentially winning that game I seem to be alone in that which is fine, uh, but As someone who won the bangles to win based on my betting interest. I actually thought it was an okay decision So personally, I was on board with it didn't work out. They didn't cover plus three did not get the money line for me Uh, but I still feel good about the way they played that game. I still feel good about the bet It didn't quite cash on that one. I had the dolphin's money line at minus 178 That was pretty dead early with the teddy bridge water injury the jets played well against the dolphin's defense too so honestly, even if teddy hadn't gotten hurt, I'm not sure if I would have won that bet but You know circumstances out of the out of the control there I don't think it was a bad bet. I don't think I deserved to win it Even if teddy had been healthy, but I didn't win it either way On thursday, I had a couple bets here on the show. We were talking with ryan I had a stealers money line at plus 640 close at plus 610, but closing line value. Don't pay the bills with the way that game Went down. They got toast. That's why I didn't want the spread at plus 14 because I knew that a A romp was well within the range of outcomes I think that the money line was the preferred way to go there. Um, didn't cash either way, but I still think that the The unwillingness to bet the spread I feel good about spending the money line, you know closing on value et cetera, et cetera, but whatever that one is how it was other one. I had a thursday was the chargers I said thursday I wanted to wait and so after kina now and got ruled out and myles garrett was ruled a to bet that one because I thought there would be movement towards the Browns after that that did happen a money line was minus 120 saturday when I got that Spread was minus one and a half then as well Both those cashed uh barely But got a better price on the money line if you waited and a better number on the spread as well And if you had gotten it two and a half, which it was thursday would not have cash, which is why Getting a read on which way you think the markets will go is obviously very important and That's why I was willing to wait on the chargers there and uh take them later on So luckily I did because that did help me out quite a bit there then last night a split ticket for me I had josh jacob's over 18 and a half receiving yards and jerry mckinnon under 25 and a half rushing plus receiving he had 30 on one run. Um That was a very tilting run and then he looked good so they kept going him So Unders can be frustrating to sweat because you're like, okay, they could still burn me late in the game I'm winning this right now. Etc. Etc. But if they go over in the second quarter, who cares? So yeah, at least I lost that one early jacob's though that one He almost doubled that total so next week overall, I feel pretty good about the way things went I feel okay about the way my numbers are back testing I'm glad that I have this alternate model right now that I'm running with 2022 only numbers again Not betting based on that one but kind of using it as a check uh to see if I'm going the right direction with things And I think that will help us in the long run Ryan williams find him on twitter at ryanowns underscore underscore w great game last night to spend a profit week He was two and four on sunday, uh, but really sick monday for ryan He did miss on the derrick uh derrick car to throw a pick which is minus one or two miss the cheese minus seven and a half miss the cheese Teen total over 31 and a half, but uh, you also to anytime touchdown azea pacheco plus 210 But the big one hitting for ryan was travis kelsey to score twice at plus 600 He did it four times. So he doubled that one up He also cash patrick mahomes over two and a half passing touchdowns of plus 132 He had travis kelsey over six and a half receptions, which was minus 120 And kelsey got seven he had like 25 yards, but at seven catches so A two and four sunday for ryan, but a profitable week based on most of that kelsey double touchdown game And the mahomes over two and a half passing touchdowns the kelsey reception one. He also had the josh jacob's Receiving yardage number over 18 and a half So good week by ryan, especially on monday to close things out player props show on Friday jay jazak recent also talked about josh jacob's he had 154 yards rushing 39 receiving and a touchdown. So Any market you went to for josh jacob's buddy cashed. He was awesome in that one other one for jj was damian pierce He mentioned in in the situations to monitor. He had 99 yards rushing 14 yards receiving so The situations to target section has been a very good one to jj so far this year We talked about remando stevenson there earlier on this year. It's been a very good section So if you're listening on friday, I think that although we give like yardage and touchdown recommendations I'd listen those closely to the situations to target one because that's been a really good read by jj overall this year Uh, oh and two on touchdown bets and one for three on yardage bets alan robinson under 39 and a half receiving yards Did hit there a j dylan passing yardage and nick chubb receiving yardage AJ dylan receiving nick chubb receiving yardage both those numbers went under AJ didn't got a a roll reduction sunday. It seemed like they lean more on erin jones So didn't get the dylan one shoveling one target was early on He went under seven and a half receiving yards But the situations to target section been really good one to tune in to so far this year. So Hopefully you're able to get in on uh, josh shake ups and damian pierce taking vanjo and jj was saying on those We of course do have jj back once again this friday We got ed fang and ben stevens on tomorrow to talk some college football as well that show should be up Probably around 2 p.m. Eastern or so tomorrow Over on the covering the spread podcast feed and it'll be up on the fandal youtube page after that as well Thursday showed a preview week number six Ryan will be out for that because he has to unpack Just moving into his new apartment So while someone else there on thursday to help me break down Biggest games of this week get all those shows as they are posted by subscribing to covering the spread wherever You get your podcasts and also check out the fandal youtube page To get these as they go up there each and every week big Thank you once again to rob freeman for coming on not just today But all throughout this entire second half of the mlb season check out rob on twitter at pitching ninja Find his work at mlb fox neson and peacock and uh, see if we can get those strikeout props in for rob for today as well If you have any questions for me, I am on twitter at gymsonus J i m s a n n e s you can also follow the fandal podcast network at fandal podcast Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your mlb bets for today Good luck to you with your week six bets. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down some college football This has been covering the spread right here on the fandal podcast network