 Welcome to Tick Mill weekly market outlook for week commencing the 17th of August with me, Patrick Munnerley. The US is heading into next week. Look for the dollar to be driven by two factors. I think there could be supply pressures felt with the 20-year US Treasury auction on Wednesday. This could see US yields back up over 20 basis points, for example US 10-year up to 0.9% over the coming weeks. That could tempt some money out of the equity markets. Secondly, what the Fed does at its September meeting will be key. Minutes of the July FFMC meeting are released on Wednesday and any suggestion of impending average inflation targeting or yield curve control could be dull negative. In addition, the market will be looking at the new music following the US-China phase one trade deal review which took place on Saturday. Indications are that neither side wants the deal to unravel although today Sunday President Trump has been talking about putting a time limit on a TikTok deal and whether or not Alibaba should be allowed to trade in America. Also on the US calendar is housing data. This should be strong given low mortgage rates and strong mortgage applications. Housing data for the time being should support the V-shaped scenario price into cyclical assets. From a technical perspective, the dollar continues to correct. We seem to be from a fractal perspective tracking the last correction we saw back at the beginning of June here. You can see similarities. So whilst we hold above this 9270 support area, I'm still looking for 9450 as the area where I've been looking to re-engage on the short side in terms of the dollar. However, if we do take out 9270 on a closing basis bearing in mind the RSI statistic is starting to roll over and we didn't really get any divergence on that last meaningful low and tested the trend line at 9250, then any follow-through below 9270 early in the week would suggest that the correction has terminated now and that we will be certainly down retesting trend line support now coming in around the 92 area with the monthly S1 down at 9150. After a week of consolidation, the euro dollar price action will rely on the FOMC minutes presenting enough dovish excitement to keep US real yields under pressure. From the euro side of the equation, this week's highlights will be Friday's release of the flash eurozone PMIs. These have rebounded impressively and could well enjoy a further uptick in the August release. September may be a less encouraging picture, a second wave cases increase on the continent and renewed restrictions are considered. A slightly more difficult bond market environment may warn of widening in the BTP bund spread, which would be a euro negative, yet I think that the carry trade story is well insulated in Europe at the moment. Euro excess liquidity is the ECB stands close to 3 trillion euros, suggesting that any BTP sell-off should be short lived. From a technical perspective, looking at the euro dollar continued to correct holding above this 117, as that area continues to attract buyers, then I think we can get a move up to test this pivotal 120. I discussed in this week's live analysis session the significant optionality that is building at that 120 level, and if we do get a close through 120, the lack of optionality above the 120 level could prove fuel for a move higher as we head into the back end of the year. But for now, looking for this 117 area to hold if it does, then we get the move up to 120. If we take out 117, then we look for the test of the monthly pivot and the monthly VWAP back to 116.20. Sterling has been trading at tight range in spite of recent insights from both the BOE and the second quarter GDP data. UK data in the week ahead will see July CPI, August PMIs and July retail sales data. The activity data should support the recovery narrative, even though the outlook may start to deteriorate into September as higher joblessness starts to come through. Also in focus will be the next round of UK EU trade talks, and despite some optimistic tweets at the back end of last week in advance of the meeting, markets expect liquid progress being made on key sticking points such as state aid etc. From a technical perspective though, the Sterling has been continuing to trade just below this descending trend line resistance coming in at the 130-150 area, but holding bids back to 130. As it does so, I see the potential for another leg higher to complete a cycle here, which would see us uptesting into 134-135 area for potentially pulling back. Caviar is, obviously, if we take out 130 on a closing basis, then I look for a move back initially to test 128.60, the monthly pivot. If we fail to find sufficient bids in the market there, then I think we can retest this ascending trend line support down to 126.90. Steeper yield curves in a reflationary environment would typically see the yen underperform on the crosses and the dolly yen trade higher. The Treasury sell-off could briefly push dolly yen over 107 in the week ahead. Incidentally, Japanese buying of foreign bonds does seem to be running at a high rate of about 1 trillion yen per week. Let's see whether that lasts. Local data sees Japanese second quarter GDP. There is the potential for a minus 5% print, quarter over quarter. Slightly better than the market though, I doubt that the data will have much impact. We also see Japanese July export data. Japan's exports seem to suffer more than Korea's, and a recovery in the July would provide some encouraging signals about the external environment. From a technical perspective, a Friday dolly yen failed to put a print above 107. We did get a key reversal plan. We didn't take out the monthly VWAP at 106.26, which would have certainly encouraged bearish positions. For now, pullback potentially to test the 106 area again would set up a three-wave push into this 108 symmetry swing objective versus this low that we put in at the 104.20. However, if we do see follow-through selling early in the week and we fail to find support at 106, then I can see us back into that 105.30 area. Finally, in Australia, the Aussie dollar has held marginally below the 72 handle as the Antipodeans lagged other procyclicals this week, and despite a quite encouraging set of jobs data in Australia, attention remains on the virus lockdown developments in the country. Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of Australia and Governor Low highlighted how the big second virus wave in Victoria has likely erased the recovery effort in other parts of the country. He also discussed negative rates in a parliamentary testimony, but said those are extremely unlikely. Traders will look into the RVA August policy meeting minutes next week to track any signs of a shift in the bank's stance, but I doubt the release will bring much surprise to the market. From a technical perspective, Australian Dollar held the ascending trend line support area, which is forming an ending diagonal pattern here now. If we see follow-through buying into the early parts of the week through 71.75, I'm looking now for a test of this 73 ascending trend line resistance area. Given the significant divergence we're starting to see develop here, I would look for reversal patterns at the 73 handle to set short positions, certainly looking for a retest of the monthly pivot back down to the 70.50 area. That concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing 17 August. As always, be sure to join me on Thursday at 1pm UK time for my weekly live analysis session. Thanks very much and have a great week.