 Green Sink Tech Hawaii, thank you for joining us. Do we have a distinguished guest today or what? We have David Vogel, a data driver, a hedge fund manager, and environmentalist, and it's all pretty mind-boggling. He is the winner of a health-related competition, one nationwide. He is the winner of $500,000 for another data-driven competition, and before he became a hedge fund manager and philanthropist, he was in the health field, again, driving data such that he was able to predict the outbreak and the outcome of diseases far better than the medical profession could do in their normal, traditional way. So welcome, David. I'm kind of overwhelmed here. Thank you, Howard. So let's talk first about hedge fund managers, some of us, and we think hedge fund managers, but it turns out, you assure me that there are good guy hedge fund managers exemplified by yourself, and with your money you have established a fund, or a foundation. Please describe your foundation for you. So the foundation is called Vogel Foundation. My wife and I started in 2014, and our main focus is environmental causes, trying to leverage off of our data-driven skills to raise awareness for global warming and what we're doing to our environment. And as I understand it, when you're giving away money, you give to certain organizations, and if I understand data-driving now, you are predicting which of the environmental organizations or other entities give you the biggest bang for the buck in terms of reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Is that a good summary? Yes, it's a good summary. So let's get to the first slide. We've got all kinds of wonderful things to cover here. Okay, and next, oh yeah, this is important. Data proves, you know there's been some controversy, is global warming related to man's activities. There's certain highly placed figures who would have you not believe that. David's numbers are not based on theory, they are based on data, data David. So next slide please. So global warming business is not a recent thing, you want to explain a little bit of this? Exactly. I mean, a lot of people who may not want you to believe in global warming say it's a new science, scientists are not sure. My main point here is this is a 200-year-old science that people knew that carbon dioxide was a greenhouse gas and produced and trapped heat for 200 years. And right after the industrial revolution there were physicists doing predictions that were very consistent with predictions today that doubling CO2 in the atmosphere will raise temperatures by around 10 degrees Fahrenheit and guess what, we're about halfway there. Yep, yep, we're there. Okay, let's look at the next slide. So these predictions happened before the Wright brothers started flying airplanes. Exactly. And this is an analogy, I mean if you don't want to believe in climate science then you shouldn't believe that airplanes would fly, they might just fall out of the sky if the physicists don't know what they're doing. And our next slide will illustrate this. So what happens to CO2? It hits the Earth's atmosphere, tries to bounce back up but instead of going out into the cool universe, it gets trapped. Exactly and that's just a chemical property of carbon dioxide that certain frequencies of light end up bouncing around and generating a lot of heat. And for those of us who need an illustration, we need to think back only to Hawaii was it three years ago, we had the miserable, miserable spell of weather and my surfing friends told me that the ocean was five degrees warmer than usual and we had hurricanes coming at us at a mile a minute from the Gulf of Mexico. So anybody who doubted, unfortunately, that may be a harbinger of things to come. All right, I mean that's one of the big, big threats and we might think one or two degrees, well we'll feel a little bit warmer, no big deal, but one or two degrees per hurricane is the difference, a hurricane strengthening or weakening. Yep, there's the tipping point. So if we could have the next slide, okay, now this is something I cannot explain. Well, I guess to calculate that the carbon dioxide increases our man-made, you gotta know how many molecules are there on the atmosphere and you can figure that out just by weighing the air with a standard barometer and we know that the earth is about 500 trillion, trillion square meters and so we know how many molecules of air there are and from that we know what kind of concentrations we're creating. And you, the audience will be quizzed on this after this. Absolutely. And E, E means? And that means followed by 23 zeros. Yep, yep, that's right. Or 44 zeros, so there's one followed by 44 zeros molecules in the atmosphere. Suffice to say a lot of molecules and you're measuring, you're such a data cruncher that you're able to measure all of this. All right, and interesting, you can calculate that with a spreadsheet in high school level math and chemistry. I didn't learn that in high school. So let's go to the next slide here. And so we know that one followed by 38 zeros is one part per million, that many molecules one part per million. And so when you look at this graph, this is our current year here. This is the last five years. You can see the bottom graph is 2011 and that's, those are the seasonal fluctuations. The natural fluctuations by season goes up and down because see every year it's increasing by a good three or so parts per million. That is impressive. This is just a five-year span and it's so, so measurable. It's just five years and it's very noticeable. And it's consistent as all heck also. That's right. Every year we're adding every year three parts per million to think those up. Well, let's go to the next slide. And so from the, just from numbers we know in the coal industry, we know, I mean this is published by the International Energy Agency, published by BP. This is how much coal we burn and just the standard calculation you can figure out that about two parts per million come right from coal. Counted for every molecule. Impressive. And here is oil. Same thing with oil. Take standard numbers, standard, known in the energy industry, 96 million barrels per day consumed, take the weight of carbon in there, multiply it out and you account for another one and a half parts per million. And just so the audience understands this is per day, not per year. Right, it's about 35 billion barrels per year. And one barrel is 42 gallons. We're talking unbelievably high numbers. And if we look at the next slide here, this is the previous one. And as you explained to me, this is, no, this is based, we just covered coal and oil, but there's a heck of a lot of other factors that account for the CO2 build up to, namely natural gas, the burning of wood, deforestation, because when the trees are cut down, they no longer absorb the CO2. So there's a lot more man-made carbon. And I just wanted to show how clear it was that this increase is 100% man-made. Okay. Oh, here's our good old monoloa data. Now, please, this is 800,000 years. Yes, so based on samples from ice cores, we can figure out that various periods of time over the last million years about what temperature it was and what the CO2 concentration was. And how in the world do we get that data? I envision us going to a huge, huge glacier in Greenland and just drilling down. Any idea how far down you have to drill to get this? I don't know exactly how far, but they've gone down far enough to go back to get samples from 800,000 years ago. Yeah, very impressive. So we see how carbon dioxide has fluctuated between about 180 and 300 parts per million until all this man-made. So the climate skeptics keep pointing out well, history shows that the CO2 levels go up and down, up and down, and that is absolutely true. But look at where that arrow is ending up right now. That's right. Natural fluctuations will move it slowly, maybe over 100 years, and Michael, up or down a few parts per million. But that, you can see, we're way off the charts. Yeah, yeah. And what's going on here? This is the correlation between CO2 and the temperatures. Right, so it's basically last graph zoomed in on the last 140 years. And you can see how CO2 concentration has gone up due to the fossil fuel burning and deforestation and how the temperature is going up. Now, there's always going to be a little bit of a lag because you create the problem with the CO2 and then it takes you over the years. The temperature will continue to go up. And just to, if you can go back to that slide, historically, what was it? The cotton gin or something was invented about 1790 or so, and that was the beginning of real fossil fuel burning. And then 1856, the oil well in Pennsylvania was discovered, and that led to a real dramatic increase in oil burning from then on. Meanwhile, coal was used for more and more and more applications. So by 1880, we'd already started to be pretty darned industrialized. And we've just gone gangbusters ever since then. It's just accelerating. And just to add, the one reason for the acceleration is that we in the industrialized world, Europe, Japan, America have kind of leveled off on our fossil fuel consumption. But what used to be the third world, notably India and China, are rapidly moving up, up, up, up by the hundreds of millions of people. They're going from bicycles to scooters, from scooters to cars. They're air conditioning. And that accounts for this more rapid acceleration. And on that cheery note, we need to take a break. Cold green, sink tech away. David Vogel, my distinguished guest, back in a minute. I'm Tim Appachaw, host for Moving Hawaii Forward, a show dedicated to transportation issues and traffic. We identify those areas where we do have problems in the state, but also the show is dedicated to trying to find solutions, not just detail our problems. So join me every other Tuesday on Moving Hawaii Forward. I'm Tim Appachaw. Thank you. Aloha. My name is Steven Philip Katz. I'm a licensed marriage and family therapist, and I'm the host of Shrink Wrap Hawaii, where I talk to other shrinks. Did you ever want to get your head shrunk? Well, this is the best place to come to pick one. I've been doing this. We must have 60 shows with a whole bunch of shrinks that you can look at. I'm here on Tuesdays at 3 o'clock every other Tuesday. I hope you are too. Aloha. Back, Howard Wigg. Cold green, sink tech away. My extremely distinguished guest, David Vogel. Number cruncher and environmentalist extraordinaire. Now, before we get into slides, you said you had a different take on what constitutes an environmentalist. We think of the normal one as being a tree hugger, but instead of hugging trees, you are... Well, it's kind of a misnomer because there's the idea that environmentalists care more about trees than about people. It's really the other way around. You could call me a peopleist because my goal is to create an environment that is supportive of humans driving. Not a world of natural disasters because the environment's always going to survive. It's survived for tens of millions of years. It's got your mass extinctions, so the environment's not really in danger. Mother nature can do very well without us. That's right. In fact, they can do much better without us. That's right. Exactly. So the environment is nothing to worry about. It's us to worry about. So really, all this environmental work is for people. And I might point out that it was last summer a sea coast town in Iraq, I believe it was, got up to 137 degrees, and because it's next to the sea, you had humidity thrown in. Utterly, totally unbearable. I don't know how these people survived. Right. I mean, we're seeing disasters worldwide, but even in our own country we're up to 350, 400 billion a year in damages from natural disasters, and it's just going up. Yeah. The latest palpable example being Phoenix, Arizona just a few years ago, the airplanes couldn't take off. Why couldn't airplanes take off because of heat? What's the deal there? Again, I don't know if it's expanded. But again, it has to do with denser air versus thinner air. Yeah. So anyway, let's move on to our next slide. And this is really fascinating. What in the world are all these little dots about here now? Okay. Well, on the x-axis going across, we've got the carbon dioxide concentration at various times in the last 800,000 years. So remember how I said we have all those data points and ice samples. And we also know at those periods of time what the average Earth's temperature was. And you can see this crazy strong correlation between carbon dioxide and the Earth's temperature. So that sort of the basis, the data-driven basis for predicting where temperatures would rise to if we stopped emitting any kind of additional carbon today. And so you can see those two possible projections on the right. So what's crazy is all the data points of the last 800,000 years fit between 180 and 280 parts per million on the left. And we don't have a data point for 400 parts per million, which is where we are today. So that gives you an idea of the magnitude of how much carbon we've pumped into the atmosphere and what kind of temperature increase we're looking at. And the six degrees, is that C or F? That is C. C. So center grade, so multiplied by about 2.2, and we get about 13, 14 degrees. Actually, it's closer to about 10 degrees Fahrenheit. But that's at the polar ice cap where the samples are taken. So you actually divide that in half. That's more of a five degree prediction over the whole. Okay, yep. Okay, and the next slide we'll be revealing. Here's something that brings all of this really home. I landed at Kennedy Airport in New York City the day after what was the big disaster that hit New York City? Sandy, Hurricane Sandy, yep. And the subways had utterly stopped. I stay right on Queens Boulevard where one of the major subway lines is, and it was eerily quiet, why the subway tunnels were flooded. And Wall Street had to close down for days and days, why Wall Street was flooded. And very often the electrical components are in the basement of the building, flooded. Excellent example of the effects of global warming. And that sort of gets us the thing why we don't put a price on the carbon, because we are causing global warming. We are eventually causing hundreds of billions in damages. So there really is a price that we pay that needs to be calculated into everything when we decide whether to go renewables or not. Yeah, and we'll get to that solution just in a very short while. But just recently we had what we call it the king tide here in Honolulu. It was the confluence, I think, of a full moon and a high tide anyway, and then the rise in ocean level. Right, I mean it adds up. I mean people don't see it as the immediate danger because it's just a few millimeters every year, but a few millimeters every single year adds up. And we've got a lot of places near sea level that are going to be greatly affected. Yeah, and there's a certain population in Honolulu. What's its name? Starts with a W, a Waikiki, yes. And as I understand it, we have to replenish the sand in Waikiki every year because the higher tides plus walls wash it all out there. So we're going to be seeing this with increasing frequency and an increasing intensity over the years here. And go to our next slide. That looks very familiar. This is New Orleans, I presume? Yes, and of course being a resident of Florida, I know hurricanes all too well. And having studied hurricanes for a bit, I know how they weaken when the water's a few degrees cooler and it's a few degrees warmer. So a few degrees is a very big deal. Hurricane keeps strengthening and strengthening. We're going to be seeing category five hurricanes. That's a category five there. Hurricane five is the worst, and I don't think you can get any worse than that. Right, I don't think that one was even a five. And the cost to New Orleans alone must be billions and billions and billions and billions. And again, the scientists are saying that the ocean was a traditional absorber of the earth's heat. And it's kind of reaching a saturation point where it can absorb less and less and less. Have you heard that? Yes, because eventually the heat will be absorbed where it won't absorb anymore. So not only we're creating a problem with the ocean being warmer because of hurricane strengthening, CO2 in the water creates acidification. So it might have a problem with fish supply as well. Coral bleaching. That's right, coral be the bleaching. So because of the complicated nature of water currents, I don't think we know exactly how much heat it can absorb. But we are already seeing an acceleration of temperature increase. Yep, and accelerating again going faster and faster and faster. And regarding coral bleaching, coral is the seminal point or the petri dish of a lot of the ocean life. That's where it all begins, and then it spreads out from there. Correct. So you did in the coral, you did in the life, you did in the amount of fish in the ocean. That's right. So on that cheery note, let's go to one of our final slides and we'll talk about solutions. So my main point here is that I think first of all, public has to be aware that this is a problem. And is your foundation doing anything to spread the word? Well, by being on this show that's one thing, but we're trying our best to put the word out there. We'll probably post some information, calculations, but a lot of it's just... Is that on your website? It is on our website. Do you take out full-page ads on the New York Times or anything? No, we haven't done that. But trying to talk as much as we can with influential people to just get the message out there and once there's enough public awareness then we need policies that'll help. I know a lot of companies are working hard toward zero emissions, but I don't think that's enough. I think you need policy to help. And can you give some examples of policy? Well, I think here in Hawaii, for example, Hawaii is a good example, number one state in the U.S. for renewables. We're 26% renewable here in Hawaii. And so Governor Ige, I know, is very much behind. He set the goal to get to zero by a certain year. And don't forget or do remember efficiencies because that's my field. That's right. Now, in fact, Hawaii's electrical consumption in the residential area, the commercial area, and the industrial area are all going down despite the fact that our population is growing and more people are buying air conditioners and more people are buying 92-inch TVs and they're back to buying SUVs, but that's transportation. But despite all of those growth indicators, oh, and tourists, we're having 8.2 million tourists, they create some CO2 also. Despite all of that, our electrical consumption is going down. Yep. So definitely making progress, but 26% is the leader, but we need to get to 100%. Mm-hmm. And we need to wrap up, but innovation, what are you doing about innovation? Well, if we go to the innovation, one of the projects we fund is more efficient air conditioning. So research in that area. We also invest in some startup companies that are renewable based. Yeah, good research going there. And finally, we need to wrap up, but $140 a ton for CO2, carbon tax? Yeah. Yeah, that's my policy idea. And again, just an idea I came up with pays for the quantifies. If you can quantify the damages done by carbon dioxide, which is very difficult because it increases every year. It's not a flat amount. But if you, similarly, I guess a good analogy would be if I were to throw a bag of trash in your landfill, I would have to pay you a few bucks to use your landfills. Yeah, we can do, yeah. So if carbon dioxide is treated like trash and I can throw a bag of CO2 to the atmosphere, I gotta pay for it. And so it actually solves a lot of problems at once. And what about the concept? This is just my own of when you tax fossil fuel, you commensurately reduce income tax. That's true. You can solve a lot of problems. You can reduce income tax. You steer the economy toward renewable energy. And one nice thing about that amount is that $140 is actually lasting per barrel of oil that comes out to about $50 a barrel, which seems very, very high. But we actually paid more than that at one point. We certainly did. And the economy didn't collapse. So you could argue that this is market tested and very doable. And again, if you, my idea, reduce income tax, yeah, there is a trade off there. And finally, do we have any contact information for you? Yes, I can, there's information on our website, followfoundation.org. And you can contact our program director, Abigail Axelrod. There she is. And any questions? Welcome. Yeah. Okay, we got to wrap up. Thank you so much, David. This has been fascinating. Code Green, Think Tech, Hawaii. See you next time.