 Good morning and welcome to the weekly market update with me at David Madden. Today's date is Monday the 15th of March 2021 and the time has just gone 11.06 GMT and it's been a fairly positive start to the European trading session. We've seen small small gains being racked up on the major stock markets in Europe. It's essentially a continuation of the kind overall positive moves that we've seen in stock markets in the last few days. At the back end of last week, President Biden signed off on the US relief package worth $1.9 trillion which includes stimulus checks of $1,400. So Americans are going to be receiving those quite quickly. That's been the main driver of the stock market of stocks recently. Also adding to that is the kind of wider recovery story. The view that countries around the world are rolling out their vaccine packages rather vaccine packages with that is a belief that we're edging towards economies opening up in the next few weeks and months ahead of us. There's no going to great rush when that will happen but if the overall the process is heading in the right direction. Overnight, we had some broadly speaking well received economic indicators out of China. The latest industrial production figures and also retail sales figures for the kind of combined two months of January of February came in but not only did they show large growth, they also came in better than expected. There was some mild disappointment in there. The fixed asset investment reading was very strong but it came in below expectations but overall it was well received. It can add to the overall recovery story. China had some pretty brutal and strict lockdowns which really impacted the economy last year but we're seeing a fairly decent recovery in particular on the retail sales front because even though the manufacturing sector which some of it is state owned or state influenced that set of rebound retail sales was notably weak or underperforming in comparison to other aspects of the economy so people were questioning are people individuals in China not that not that confident and is that why they're not spending the whole lot but the latest retail sales figures were well received. So as always what I'll do with my video I'll run through the week ahead first of all and then I go through the major markets indices currencies and commodities. So starting off on the weekend article which could be found on our website under cfcmarkets.com under insights and then under latest news and analysis so as I mentioned via the China the retail sales figures out of China were well received. Looking ahead to tomorrow Greg's the well-known baker famous for their sausage rolls they have there in the UK they have their numbers coming out. US retail sales will also be posted tomorrow and keep in mind we have very strong reading for the January report showed growth of 5.3%. At the very back end of 2020 there was a $900 billion stimulus package in the US it seems that influenced the figure. People are going to be wondering what's the what's the February reading going to look like are we going to see a continuation of the optimism by US consumers. Sticking with the American theme we have the Federal Reserve how they're announcing their industry decision on Wednesday no change to policy is expected but traders will be listening out for is what does the Federal Reserve make of the relatively high when they move to the upside in US government bond deals. The US tenured yield is currently north of 1.63%. It has been moving higher recently a rise in yields tends to be a tends to tends to mean that that the bond markets are factoring in higher growth and inflation and with that that can lead to higher interest rates but the Federal Reserve got no attention of increasing rates anytime soon but if bond needs continue to rise it may force the Federal Reserve to look at altering their language sooner than anticipated so keep an eye out for that. On speaking with you going to send a bank theme the Bank of England how their industry decision on Thursday no exchange no change is expected there it's likely that we're going to hear about how the possibility or it's like we're going to hear that negative interest rates are a possibility and the banks in the UK are preparing for it but it seems less likely seems really unlikely that negative interest rates are going to be actually introduced. On Thursday we have third quarter numbers coming off of FedEx this is very much a kind of a delivery and logistic story online shopping has absolutely boomed in the past 12 months with that we've seen particularly on the kind of retail side of the business we've seen FedEx really do well because it's a delivery business. Nike well-known brand they have their third quarter numbers coming out on Thursday also on Thursday a Caddo one of the companies which did very well out of the lockdowns it saw a surge in activity. The share price has been cooling though in recent weeks because traders are making a rotating out of stocks that did well during the lockdown such as in this case the online delivery supermarket company but they've been rotating back into stocks in the kind of hospitality and retail sector which I'll touch on in a second. Williams Sonoma have Q4 numbers coming out anything to do with the household goods and furniture and what not has actually done quite well in the past year just because of lockdowns people have been effectively forced to stay indoors but with that people are kind of sprucing up their own homes. Jenny Weatherspoons their share price their first half figures are coming out on Friday the actual numbers themselves are going to be probably more likely by bleak given the severe lockdown given the how business has been restricted you know back to the ground to a halt because the lockdowns what people are going to be listening off for is how well financed the business is and how how much the business is gearing up for the reopen at some point in the next few weeks and months we're going to have an easing of restrictions here in the UK pubs that often beer gardens will be allowed to open up and then in April and then going forward from there the plan is for England anyways to for like the pubs and restaurants should be operating restriction free in late June so people are going to be wondering how well set where the spoons are prepared for that and I mentioned a moment ago a cattle share price has been drifting low recently because people have been rotating sometimes they've been rotating away from you know so-called lockdown stock stocks that did well amid the type restrictions and whereas in the flip side the likes of JD Weatherspoons share price and Greg share price have been performing relatively well recently because people are looking at the companies going they stand to benefit you know three months six months down the line when hopefully we are living in a restriction free economy and lastly by the way we have the UK public finances so I'll see that the debt the massive amounts of debt have been racked up because of the furlough scheme and all the various different support schemes designed to help the economy in this very challenging time starting off with the first 200 to the big indices as I like to do so the foot 200 hit a hit an 11 month high in January it cooled into early February and since down to broadly been pushing higher it's comfortably above this this blue line here the 50 movie average which comes to play at 6,656 while the whole holds above that metric is likely at the broad rougher trend is going to continue should that be the case we're going to be looking at targeting the the highs that were posted in in early January at 6,957 and a movie on that could put us on track up towards 7000 big the big psychology number I moved to the downside could find support from this yellow line here the waterly movie average now comes to play at 64 64 68 is that too far away from the the lows of late February and then if you go below that we're going to head back down toward this zone here the lows of early February just north of 6300 of that metric also isn't too far away from the lows of isn't a million miles away from the lows of late November in around 6248 we've seen record highs in the DAX recently which really kind of indicates just how positive said to me it is DAX is in quite a decent position so the market DAX has a racked up all-time highs recently we're called to be above its 50 movie average well above that if we continue to press on higher from here because we're currently trading on 14,526 moves on higher up here our traders we'll be looking out for that the next big number will be 15,000 should we see move to the downside we could head back down towards 14,100 we saw a bit of resistance in that general area on the way up and even if you go below that we get back head back down towards 14,000 itself and then below that this blue line here the 50 movie average in a 13,985 and knows how active nice the support in early March and if a metric has been of importance in the past it makes it more likely it'll be of importance in the future I'm turning our attention now to the Dow Jones respecting you know a record a record new all-time high to be set in the Dow Jones today once cash trading it's underway we're currently predicting it to open just south of 32,900 if you continue to move on higher from here we could be looking at targeting 33,000 any move to the downside in the Dow Jones could take us back down towards 32,000 and the move below that could take us back down towards the lows of mid-February in around 31,744 and below that we could be heading back down towards the 50 movie average this blue line here at 31,268 looking now over on the currency markets turning off Eurodollar so it was only only recently we saw Eurodollar fall last very recently we saw Eurodollar fall to its lowest level since November but since then it has been moving higher and we can see here that we had a fairly decent move to the upside it's turning over on itself yet again so I got me wondering is this just a is this move to the upside just a rebound from the kind of the negative trend that's been in place since early January is the market going to turn over on itself yet again if that is the case is it going to head back down towards the lows of the lows of last week in around the lows of last week in on one spot 1835 which isn't too far away from the kind of the 118 metric in here also keep in mind the tuner to moving averages is in that zone as well in a one spot 1832 so keep an eye for one spot 1835 down to around one spot 18 but keep mind the overall trend for months and months has been very much to the upside so we're also could be at at a crucial point we could be at a point where if we do manage to move on higher from here and we take out the highs of last week we could be looking at retaking the 180 moving average here in a one spot 2038 notice how nicely it acted as support back in early February a move beyond that could take us up towards the fifth and moving average in a one spot 2094 and if you get and notice how it that acted as nicely as persistence in the middle of February so should we go beyond that metric we could then be looking heading up towards the late February highs in a one spot 2242 looking now at the pound versus the US dollar so the pound is held up far better than the euro against against the dollar even though the dollar in recent months has been reasonably strong so its highest level in you know over two and a half years going on a three-year high was set in late in late February since then we've had a move to the downside but we are moving higher again we're comfortably above this blue line here of the fifth and moving average in a one spot 3793 while we hold above that metric it's likely that the broad roper trend is going to continue a move higher from here could see us back up towards one spot 40 north going north of 140 you can then be looking heading towards the highs that were seen in late February what are your highs of one spot 4241 if you do have a decent break below the fifth and moving average this blue line here it could take us back down towards the one on the moving average we can see you're actually nicely support back in early November the one on the moving average comes in at one spot 3546 and come on to commodities now before we finish up starting off with the gold market so we mentioned a moment ago how broadly speaking the US dollar as it's going to be gold is trading US dollars a stronger US dollar has put pressure on gold recently conversely a weaker US dollar has given gold an assistance and bounce so it was only last week we saw gold fall back to a level last seen in June so we're talking multi-model lows that were set there we had a fairly bullish candle last Tuesday on the on the 9th but since then we've seen a bit of a wobble we haven't we haven't we're well off the lows of last week we haven't made huge progress to the upside so while we hold above the lows of last week it's likely we could see the market you know continue to rebound we could be heading back up towards the 1760 area up beyond that could take us up towards 1800 and then beyond that again could take us to this blue line here the fifth and moving average in the 18807 once again it acts nicely as resistance in early February if in the other hand if the market does manage to turn over on the top again we could be looking at retesting the lows of last week and then below that we could be looking at heading back down towards 1670 and then if you had below that we could then be looking head down towards 1600 and lastly I come out of the oil market Brent crude oil has been in decent decent shape recently it ties in with the wider recovery story if economies are going to be going to be less restricted in the in the weeks and months ahead the view is that the demand for oil is going to increase on the flip side of that you know and also tying in with that OPEC plus I've been keeping the output relatively restrained and with that that's also adding to the upward upward dam the upward price action so we must do long ago we were at its highest level in well over a year on oil it hasn't retested the recent highs but it's still caught to be above now the low scene at the beginning of the month if you continue to move on higher from here we could be looking you know heading back up towards the highest scene this day last week and then a move beyond that could take this up towards 75 spot 71 that the highest level that was seen that was last seen in August sorry rather April 2019 any move to the downside in the oil market likely find support back in around the kind of 65 zone down towards 62 spot 18 and even if you go below that we could then be likely heading back down towards the 50 moving averages blue line here which is just south of in around 60 spot 92 that's all from this week thank you for listening have a great training week and good luck