 It gives me great pleasure to be here. It's actually not the first time that I've been here at the invitation of the International Institute for European Affairs. In fact, I was here a few years ago. When they first contacted me, and I said, it's the International Institute of European Affairs, I said, well, I'm not going to be able to provide you much material for study seeing as I am a married man. Obviously, I now know all about what the great work that you do. And thank you also to the ESB for putting this magnificent show on in this historic hall. What I thought I could do is talk not so much about financing techniques, because we've just got too much knowledge here among my fellow panelists. But I'll talk a little bit about how much money is flowing and some of the issues that investors ask me about. There'll be a bit of overlap with the morning, but it's a slightly different perspective in terms of financiability of some of these solutions. So when I last came here to Dublin, it was actually 2012. And one of the things that we do at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, we track how much money flows. And it's good to get an idea of the scale. So the scale is about $300 billion a year, flowing into clean energy solutions of all sorts. That's renewable energy, energy efficiency, carbon capture, power storage, all the bit that financers that investors can identify. It's about a third of a trillion dollars every year, so a trillion dollars every three years. And that there you can see is the rate at which it grew. And you can see it grew very consistently. 2004 through till 2008, when the financial crisis hit, then it took off again. You remember the green stimulus programs that were launched in country after country, they sort of cut in after 2008, 2009, and off it went again. And at the time also, when I was last here, this was the big news story was cylindrum. I mean, we were just going into the second round of the fiscal crisis, particularly in Europe, and also the shakeout, particularly in the solar industry around the world. And that was the situation when I was last here. So since then, what has happened, and that's the same chart there, and you can see that we had two bad years for the volume of investment. Two down years since 2011, 2012 and 13 were down. And 2014, just last year for the first time in three years, a turnaround and more money was flowing. Now, one of the other things that was going on during this period, of course, was the dramatic cost reduction of essentially all clean energy solutions. Solar but also wind and even the energy efficiency solutions and demand management and smart meters, all the things we heard about this morning were becoming cheaper. And so one of the questions is, well, when the volume of investment went down, to what extent was it volume that went down and to what extent was it price that went down? And the answer is, it was mainly, not all, but mainly about price. It was the cost reductions that drove the reductions in invested dollars. And what we've actually seen is that the volume has gone up almost continuously throughout. And then by 2014, that increased volume as the prices stabilized more or less, that volume started to increase again. And that's where we are today. Now, it's not the same around the world. And one of the lessons is we track every single deal whether it's a venture capital deal or whether it's a debt deal or a project financing, what we see is that this sector of ours is very dependent on macroeconomics. So that is the situation in the US and you can see it's all about on again, off again policy. It's about the macroeconomics. It's about the electoral cycles. You can see it there. That's Latin America. What you can see there is it used to be about ethanol in Brazil and now it's wind in Brazil and Chile and so on, but also solar in Chile and Mexico. But you can see that it's still a relatively modest market. The Middle East coming alive as a market. We're talking about going from almost nothing to sort of 10, 12 billion dollars a year there. But then this is the big story, of course, Asia just powering ahead as an investment location for clean energy going from the third largest region in the world to the largest. And I would say almost the dominant region led by China but also Japan post Fukushima, India, but we also see Thailand. We see countries really across Asia providing this very steady growth. And a lot of it is to do with the sort of cheap money that the central banks have been providing and so on. And then there is Europe. And you can really see the impact of that, especially the second fiscal crisis. The volume of investment in Europe has halved since its peak. It was the leading region. We grew up in this industry believing that what Europe did, everybody would follow. And then as of 2009, sorry, 2011, that is no longer the case. And now you see it has halved. And Europe is in many ways the troubled region of the world. We've seen the boom bust cycle in Spain with retroactive cuts. We've seen Italy a year later retroactive cuts making it very difficult to finance clean energy in Southern Europe. We've seen also, even in Germany, the energy vendor, this enormous surge of investment has also fallen away. And funnily enough, the UK in many ways seen as a laggard in clean energy because of some of the statements of not so much from the government but around the government, the anti-wind, anti-clean energy statements. Nevertheless, the UK is one of the healthiest European markets for clean energy. Now, this is a very different period from 2012. I mean, this was earlier this year. It looks like a still from Sound of Music remake. It's obviously not. I also don't really quite understand. It's the G7, but there's nine of them. And I'm very bothered, I must say, by the gender balance there. There's only one woman and, you know, this is really, you know, it's one of the things that I work on in this industry a lot is trying to address these issues. But that's the G7. And they are saying 40 to 70% cut in emissions by mid-century. Now, these are the leaders of the major economies in the world. And they are talking about decarbonisation. So decarbonisation, shifting to a low-carbon economy, is not now the stuff of tree huggers. It's not the stuff of a few entrepreneurs, just Elon Musk and Tony Fidel of Nest and a few others, or specialist utility. This is now very, very mainstream. And I'm sure, I don't need to, I'm sure you will have heard and followed the encyclical put out by the Pope. And it actually talks about energy at a level of detail, which is, I suspect, not been done before in an encyclical, let's put it this way. It talks about there's an urgent need to develop sources of renewable energy. The encyclical also talks about the need for improved technologies of power storage. I actually don't know how you say that in Latin, but I'm very glad that somebody does. And I was expecting and hoping that there'd be a section on demand management, but I don't need to be in any way flippant. This is an incredibly important development that this industry of energy in which we all work is now seen as perhaps it's part of the problem, but there are also the solutions. The solutions are there, they are clear, and there is consensus, growing consensus, that they will roll out, not in niches, but across the board. It is a transition. And it is a transition. I've been saying so for over a decade. I'm delighted that Tesla is now not in the electric vehicle business, they're in the transition business. It makes me feel not quite as lonely as I was in 2004, but with transitions comes volatility because what you've essentially got is new solutions, new technologies, new players competing for market share. Transitions don't happen at macro levels, transitions happen when a customer decides they're gonna buy their first electric vehicle, or they're going to install a nest, or they're going to switch energy provider to a new arrival on a green tariff. There are millions of these micro stories of competition and it is volatile because the market gets very mixed signals. And so equity analysts don't quite know what to think and who's winning and so these are very difficult times in which to get clear price signals in commodities, in equities, difficult for policymakers to make policy. They are told very conflicting stories by the winners and the losers in the transition. So the main reason why there's the transition is not because of the G7 or because of any statement, it's not because of climate change and what's happening in Paris that's driving it. What is actually driving at the heart this transition is the experience curve. It's the fact that clean energy technologies get cheaper and cheaper over time, they are not resource constrained. And we've seen this here, you've got obviously solar, you can see that's the silicon solar experience curve, the price of solar power has dropped 99% since the 1970s, it's dropped 80% in the last four years and what's very clear from these curves is they're not going to stop, they're not going to stop, there's no reason to believe that something that has got cheaper like that same with flat screen TV, same with every technology if it's not resource constrained and volume grows and Emery Lovings of course talked about this as well, the price is going to continue to come down. You don't need to be able to read all of this because there'll be copies of these slides available but if you look across a range of clean energy solutions now, that's the green bar across the middle, they can be built not always but in the right location with the right customer demand for their resulting energy they can be built as cheaply as coal and gas and nuclear even from existing nuclear power stations let alone these very expensive new ones that are being proposed. The cheapest project that we've seen in solar, $58 per megawatt hour 5.8 US cents, that was a project unsubsidized, this is unsubsidized 5.8 US cents per kilowatt hour in Dubai that is cheaper than you could generate electricity from gas in Dubai. So if you have a central, if you've got a air conditioning demand in the Gulf this proves that solar is your cheapest solution to meet it. This is very different from when I was last here in 2012. And wind, the cheapest unsubsidized wind that we know about is $37 per megawatt hour, 3.7 US cents, it's about two and a half UK pence per kilowatt hour. These of course are big wind farms in the Great Plains, fabulous wind and the demand there to buy every unit, there's no curtailment and so on. But that, if you are looking to build new capacity of electricity anywhere in the world, that is the cheapest source you'll find, wind. Try telling that to journalists in the UK that wind can be the cheapest source of supply, they simply won't believe you, but there are people buying this, there are utilities buying wind at two cents, post subsidy, 3.7 cents, pre subsidy as we speak. And those prices are available in Brazil, they're available in India, I don't know about where exactly Australia sits relative to this, but the best wind farms are the cheapest source of new electricity anywhere in the world. That is what's driving the heart of the transition. We do a huge modeling exercise called the New Energy Outlook, the IEA, the International Energy Agency does the World Energy Outlook, WEO, we do NEO, partly because we've watched the Matrix films. And what it says is that if you look forward to 2040, there'll be $12 trillion spent on generating capacity for electricity, of which over 60%, two thirds of it in fact will be renewable, will be wind and solar, not because of support, climate action or whatever, but because it's going to make economic sense. And of course it's intermittent, but if you think about buying electricity at three and four cents per kilowatt hour, you have a huge budget to deal with the intermittency. You can buy your batteries, you can do your demand response and so on because the basic energy you're buying is so cheap. Warren Buffett pouring money into it, billions and billions, he actually had to be helped by an aide who told him, excuse me, Mr. Buffett, it's 15 billion so far, he said, nevermind, we're gonna keep doing that as far as the eye can see. What he's doing is borrowing cheap, investing in the assets, the wind farms, the solar plants, they're providing high yields relative to the risk and he's gonna do it as far as the eye can see. And we see companies doing this as well. It started with financial services companies, you remember HSBC and people like that saying, well, we're gonna go carbon zero and et cetera. Financial services companies don't use a lot of electricity or a lot of energy, but we saw then media and software companies, then retailers, fast moving consumer goods companies, manufacturers and now we see primary industry, Rio Tinto, Dow Chemical, they are not buying credits, they're not greenwashing, what they're doing is building renewable energy adjacent to their extractive facilities or adjacent to their plants. Why? Because it's cheaper than buying the electricity from the utility supplier via the grid. US and China, a historic pact that they signed in the run up to the climate negotiations. In that pact, China was going to stabilize its carbon emissions, US was gonna cut them, but a part of it that's not received nearly as much publicity is the 20% zero carbon electricity China has committed to produce by 2030. That additional zero carbon capacity that China has committed to build is about the same volume as the entire existing US grid. It'll be nuclear and renewables, but it'll be mainly renewables for economic reasons. Now the context, I said I'd talk a little bit about the context of this sort of energy plenty, the period we're in. I love this, this is from the economist of course, but we hear a lot about the US versus the shale, the unconventional extraction versus Saudi and I'll talk a little bit about that because of course the main question outside the clean energy space is what's gonna happen now to prices, that's the price of oil there. Are we gonna see a V with a rapid recovery or an L? Are we gonna be in a period of low costs? Because this matters a lot for the finance ability of your renewable energy facilities. It depends whether it's gas gonna be cheap, is gas gonna be expensive in vehicles, the Tesla is oil gonna be cheaper expensive. And most attention is paid to the production side, most analysts. So what do we see there? And we have a group that looks at the unconventional particularly gas extraction. And what you see is that same experience curve that works on solar is working on unconventional oil and gas. So you see drilling costs, lateral length, everything about what that industry does also becoming cheaper. Where analysts were saying the breakeven for a lot of the US unconventional oil was $80, $90, they're wrong. Because of learning and deflation in that industry, the breakevens are $50, $40, $60. There's a lot of oil available at those prices in the US and elsewhere. In terms of gas, that is the production per rig of gas. You can see a nine-fold increase between the years of 2009 and now. A nine-fold increase in the output per rig. This is a long-term cost deflationary trend. It's an L, not a V. If you look on the consumption side, and this is, we're talking here about automotive, we're talking US, you get very good statistics. What you see is consumption is also changing. That's the American dream. Everybody drives more, more miles per vehicle until about 2005. And it's not just a recession. It's kids don't get driving licenses. Citiescapes are changing. A gap to trend there, 10% in 10 years. And in terms of the vehicle efficiency, whether they're looking over their shoulder at Elon Musk or not, vehicles becoming much more efficient. And finally, of course, electric vehicles. This feels like a sort of Tesla day here, but let's be very clear. That is a graphic showing the installed base of vehicles. Entire vehicle fleet, cars, light trucks worldwide, and drawn to scale the electric vehicle fleet. So far, other than because car companies are looking to become more efficient to forestall the risk of a switch to electric, electric vehicles are irrelevant in the fleet so far. But guess what? Our old friend, the experience curve. On the bottom, the experience curve driving down battery costs, the Tesla, Gigafactory as well, of course, but also, by the way, Panasonic has a Gigafactory, GS-UASA, everybody's gonna have a Gigafactory. But compare that to the photovoltaic experience curve. 2007, for the first time, more silicon went into solar panels than into microchips. In 2013, more batteries went into cars than into mobile phones and computers and so on. But we've also got this issue. We've got air quality. 50% of the world's population lives in cities and this is what cities look like. Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Delhi, Cairo, Mexico City, San Paolo, Moscow, Hong Kong, Singapore, Los Angeles, Paris, it's not just the developing world. And I'm never quite sure because I'm on the board of Transport for London if I should show the next one. Don't know where that is. And what we see is these solutions. People are not going to put up with that. The wealthiest half of the world, which will become the wealthiest 60%, the wealthiest 70%, will not put up with living in those conditions. They will not, in London alone, 10,000 people a year are dying because of air pollution. Official statistics from the mayor's office. And it's worse if you think about the Delhi or Shanghai and so on. And there are solutions. We are in transportation now where the electricity system was 10 years ago. We see what the solution is. We don't know how they fit together. Some of them too expensive. There's lots of controversy, but we are definitely going to see a range of solutions, not all of which are particularly sensible or will catch on. But it could be anything from electric vehicles to car sharing. It could be the acid efficiency of Uber, which is a game changer, autonomous vehicles, changed streetscapes, electric trams, all sorts. We are going to see this transition and therefore this volatility also in the transportation sector. So I hope that I've proven my thesis that there is a transition. There is energy plenty. We've got all sorts of new solutions. And also an age of extreme volatility, which is something that I think I should at that point hand over because we have experts here who can explain how to deal with that. Thank you very much.