 Okay, very good morning to everyone Monday 22nd of July. I hope you had a great weekend as per usual Monday morning So a look ahead for the entire week not just for the session ahead I'm going to run through a couple of thoughts on the key data speeches and earnings actually that are coming out this week and then we're going to Have a look from Sam's perspective from technical Analysis what type of levels and setups is he looking out for the broader market movement for the week ahead? So I'm going to go straight into things and look at this calendar and for any of those who do need Preparation for the week ahead certainly for me this starts on a Sunday night when I start basically putting this calendar together This calendar a bit different from what you'd see I guess on normal Kind of regular Websites that you get for free where it's just economic data because in this calendar that I put together I put in economic data, but I also put in major political events So on Tuesday we'll be looking out for the very much expected Confirmation of Boris Johnson becoming new conservative leader I also include in there the major corporate earnings coming out So as you can see we've got the lights of Boeing Facebook Amazon alphabet all the big Guns are coming out and earning season really does heat up this week much more busy than than the previous week And then also I include on there just other Small points whether there's market holidays whether it's quadruple witching all these types of things as well So do keep an eye out for that I normally tweet it on Sunday evening for those interested But yeah, I'm looking at this week ahead Monday pretty slow going. This is nearly always the case really Generally Monday and Fridays tend to be the most quiet particularly when earning seasons underway very much peaks on a Wednesday Thursday normally So yeah Tuesday we're going to everything in too much detail because we're going to talk through each each point As I go through a selection of kind of different web pages, but you get the Tory announcement on Tuesday With that the Tory leadership ballot closes this evening. This is the 160,000 odd grassroot members who've been voting over the last two weeks and Very much expected Boris to win if he didn't That would be a massive surprise Reports over the weekend of course suggesting that he's most likely going to take Jeremy Hunt out of being the foreign secretary And an easier reason now is because of his poor dealing and how he could have really done a better job with this Iran situation a lot of people criticising him because he's too focused on the Tory race and not on the on his job in that respect and also Not my words, but Boris apparently he said he's treated him like a wanker and so therefore he wants to get rid of him Again, not my words the words of your future Prime Minister But looking further forward to Wednesday Wednesday Very interesting actually from the European point of view We've got the ECB interest rate decision coming up later in the week on Thursday and All eyes are on any potential future tweaks to forward guidance Not expecting here the ECB to take any drastic measures like cutting the deposit rate by 10 basis points this week but what we are looking for are a couple of data points leading up into that decision So you get the French-German eurozone manufacturing service PMIs the preliminary readings on Wednesday morning You then get the German iPhone business climate And I actually think that's quite quite an important figure this time around if you think about it the manufacturing sector definitely evident in the the German PMI data of late in the last several months has been in heavy contraction and Although it seems to have bottomed out. It obviously is a very good barometer now These soft-looking forward indicators of how the companies feel about their The economic conditions in the next six months ahead that could be quite interested in interesting in order to determine The type of potential language and how quickly the ECB might need to act So yeah, some interesting data eurozone coming out Wednesday And then Thursday morning as the prelude if you like for the actual main event, which is going to be that press conference Because again, we're not expecting too much to happen at this meeting But more about the forward guidance for then do they cut and most Wall Street analysts are expecting September for that to to come and a growing chorus of Wall Street banks Expecting quantitative easing to restart in the eurozone as well before the year is out Then on Friday from a data point of view we get the US GDP This would be the advanced reading for the second quarter. So again particularly interesting Could that be the kind of nail in the coffin for all the feds going to go 25 or 50 and actually on that note? Let me just transition my screen Briefly so I can get up the page of the Fed watch Let's see where we're at in terms of market pricing and the short end in the federal funds futures We are now only 24.5 percent for a 50 basis point rate hike So you remember the briefing that we gave on Thursday that number was pretty much 50 50 But you remember as per what we were saying, you know We still as a desk believe that the Fed will cut rates, but by 25 not 50 And just given the comments that we had from Bullard is the most dovish He was basically saying that now is not the time for 50 25 more appropriate We also had the New York Fed official spokeswoman come out to correct the likes of Williams Comments which fired up that expectation a 50 basis point saying well That was actually not meant to be specifically commenting on the meeting coming up at the end of the month So I think reality is kicking in a little bit markets reflecting that and I guess the US GDP figure Depending on how strong or weak could definitely influence that figure Remember the Fed go into their so-called blackout period in the next day or so That doesn't mean though that if this number was to remain up at the 30 40 percent I definitely think then you could have the likelihood of Fed Sources come out and they'll look to clarify the situation because the Fed won't want to be cutting Say 25 basis points and then the market reacts in a hawkish way Which kind of goes against the whole essence of what they're trying to do to support the economy So do look out for that All right before I get on I'll leave earnings for the second because a couple of other things I can point out on that front Let's go into the news flow And this really is the dominant news team from the weekend because overall market open I just quickly go to the broader asset class mix things are pretty quiet actually the dollars basically flat That's mimicked in both major currency pairs euro dollar and cable gold flat T-notes and buns pretty much the same real standout here Of course is WTI crude oil up about 60 cents trading 56 37 here down at the bottom for the moment And really this is the main headline from the weekend This came late Friday, so if I show you the graphic of what exactly's been happening This of course is the straights of Hamoos or the straight of Hamoos I should say and two weeks after the British Navy seized an Iranian tanker in Gibraltar Iran said it had captured on Friday the Sterner Imperio a British flagged oil tanker en route to Saudi Arabia So you can see here. This is that very narrow passage Which is the key choke point of the seaborn traffic of global crude in the world as it was Moving in the regular direction it then veered off course and moved into Iranian waters And so this is the latest in obviously a long running episode of events this goes all the way back to About six weeks ago when two oil tankers were damaged in a suspect attack near the entrance to the Persian Gulf The US blamed Iran Tehran denied that no then we had the drone shot down. We've had tankers seized We've had tankers escorted to safety by the Royal Navy from a BP operated tanker about 10 days ago so tensions definitely are still very high in this region and obviously this is a such a Specific area that could have a supply shock of a very large magnitude if there's something let's say military engagement of US or western forces with that is Iran a miscalculation with the management of some of these situations things can escalate rapidly So definitely encourage you guys as the week goes ahead There's no role set Meetings or anything like that to be on the lookout for but just general headline market I think will be quite sensitive to developments in that region will continue to do so The UK for the moment seeking a more diplomatic Resolution and I would foresee that being the general status quo for now or not unless Iran takes some sort of more aggressive More military based stance and then of course the UK and the US Predominantly led by those two nations would need to take a coordinated response But you have seen those two Western countries now more looking to align themselves to deal with this situation Elsewhere for oil. This is another headline Libya oil output at its lowest in five months So basically Libyan oil production has dropped to about one million barrels per day What we've seen is a force Mijur at the Shirara field in southwestern Libya. It's the largest in the country It's removed 290,000 barrels per day of crude off the Libyan Kind of production line and that that brings it down to sub one million roughly the lowest in five months Definitely need to keep an eye On oil this week from that's the supply side from the demand side One other thing to be aware of we do have the not just trade war updates and we will get on to that and the next story But also the IMF release. I believe their latest world global growth outlook And obviously that was subject to quite severe downgrades back in April So it'd be interesting to see whether or not that that kind of stokes any demand side considerations But at the moment there's a lot of supply risk Let's say on the table is keeping this latest bottoming in prices on the trade war front This is the latest some Chinese companies are seeking new purchases of US agricultural products according to the official Xinhua news agency on Sunday citing the authorities Basically a lot of Chinese firms have asked the government whether or not that they can drop tariffs so that they can buy US goods this scene is a positive development in that China very much wants to get Dialogue ongoing and wants to follow this up with the confirmation that they aren't As the US would suggest playing around with not committing as per the G20 to the purchasing of agricultural goods So they want tariffs dropped by the government so they can be allowed to do so and that to be followed up with further Face-to-face talks so this isn't really a groundbreaking development But shows that there's enough political will here at the top level in Beijing in order to bring the US back To the table and get dialogue back on the way again The rest are very much political updates not so much market movers, but things to be aware of as I said We're looking out for Boris Johnson's confirmation By really tomorrow morning. We should know there's no set time yet for that result But hopefully by this time when I do the briefing we should know very much I mean the bookies I haven't looked in the last week or so, but we're up at like 96 percent Probability that Boris would win probably similar amount. So if hunt wins Stranger things have happened, of course, but that would be a massive surprise You'd be looking for quite an aggressive short-term Rally in the pound on the back of elimination of the more hard Brexit no deal character that is Boris Johnson But again, I'm not stressed that that's an incredibly low probability But worth considering if that were to materialize that result in a big shock For the pound the other thing that's been at the weekend the Justice Minister and the Chancellor The latter Philip Hammond same third resign once Boris Johnson gets confirmed. I don't think that really comes as a surprise Hammond very much a Supporter of the remain I don't think it's really been he's been that shy of that him putting the economic consequence He'll just want to go out On his own terms rather than be forced out by Johnson when he becomes Prime Minister elsewhere Spain You might get a couple of headlines about Spain this week definitely plays second fiddle if you like to Italy But gone but not forgotten and certainly due to return to the headlines this week because Spain's acting Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez goes back to Parliament today seeking backing for his bid to form a government now if you remember His Socialist Party won the most seats in a general election, but that was three months ago There still isn't actually a working government in Spain They fell short then about a quarter ago of an absolute majority and to win this vote this week Sanchez needs support from Podemos a left-wing rival and backing from other groups So kind of forming this this coalition government in order for him to then govern And to continue on as we are at the moment failure to do so might mean then that we go back to more elections in Spain I can't remember how many we've had now pretty much if we do it would be what four in four years something like that So yeah, definitely worth considering because likely it is you might see some yield movement in Spain Over the course of this week the actual talks if I quickly scroll down So Sanchez is addressing Parliament today The first vote is not until Tuesday But then actually there's a second vote happening on Thursday and that's when we should look to get the results From there forward whether or not Spain is going to need further elections to sort out some kind of political leadership or structure Doesn't stop there Italy Salvini still not a happy man at the moment This comes as Salvini and Domayo who We're at this very interesting time at the moment Italian politics and whether or not this this kind of forced Coalition through the hung Parliament we saw in Italy is going to Stay stay the course We've seen Salvini obviously putting immigration right at the the main Center of his political agenda has led to quite an increase in popularity And therefore whether or not that this existing coalition can survive So the two leaders here of the five star in the league They're meeting on Tuesday to meet on the future of the Italian government This comes as Salvini has had a couple of pop shots at France and Germany In regards to this very issue of immigration So definitely worth keeping an eye there and then finally on the political front just so you're aware Japan Shinsa Abe the Prime Minister of Japan's ruling coalition won their sixth straight national election victory Overnight in Sunday's upper house election fell short of the supermajority This very much as expected though This hasn't really caused a reaction local assets from overnight I'd be looking for the yen to be more based in terms of an intraday movement on the back of Sentiment based on the broader market rather than that soul story One of the things here it means that the sales tax hike still likely to go ahead in October in Japan And it's also there's been some talk about Abe potentially now looking for secure a fourth term Having them already changed their political rules for him to serve in this current third one And he soon to become the longest-serving Prime Minister in Japan Final thing for the week is this corporate earnings There are 144 S&P 500 companies reporting this week so as you can imagine one of the busiest weeks that we'll get and There are 10 of the 30 down Jones industrial average components also reporting this week So do be very mindful of these particularly the ones pre-market when we're trading in the UK European Hours the major highlights include nothing really too much for today on Monday, but Tuesday Coca-Cola biogen Visa but really Wednesday it starts to heat up because you get the Dow's largest component Boeing report You also got AT&T the bellwether caterpillar also just given there The goods and services that they sell for the appetite for global growth prospects going forward You can also overlay that with the IMF report coming out the day before be interested to see People's overall optimism or pessimism about growth conditions going forward globally You've also got Facebook aftermarket alongside Tesla coming on Wednesday and in Thursday You get the big tech giants aftermarket Amazon alphabet You also got the chip maker Intel pre-market 3m another big Dow component and in Friday Morpher sentiment based Twitter and then you get McDonald's also reporting so plenty of Corporate earnings as well to keep on your radar Whenever I'm about on the desk, I'll look to share All the timings and the expectations on the EPS revenues and etc In the morning as well to make life easier for you guys. So, yeah, that is the week ahead So, yeah, there's a couple of European earnings as well. If you're trading the FTSE Don't forget you've got Glaxo reporting on Wednesday looking at the cat Quran or French and German stocks you've got Total reporting on Thursday. Deutsche Bank obviously Deutsche could report on Thursday That'd be an interesting one. Obviously it's going through this very Substantial restructuring process. I think pretty baked into their price the fact that we're looking for relatively disappointing numbers We've also got quite a lot of Auto manufacturers coming out US stateside Ford motor, but from then Europe Daimler Volkswagen Companies of which have been issuing multiple profit warnings just given as well the severity of the fallout of trade wars not just from the US But from Brexit as well So, yeah Should be an interesting week Okay, that's it for me. Gonna hand you over to Sam And I wish you a very good week ahead. Thanks very much guys Hi guys, and good morning. We all had a good weekend. We'll have a quick look over The currencies to start with this in a bit of dollar strength has come in over the last few moments The the pound in particular is coming off its higher levels Which were around the pivot and you can see that's coming to the lower point of the day quite a bit of support around today's s1 Well, we had a bit of a pullback on the 18th back on Thursday. Gonna be a tricky one I would say over the next Well next couple of sessions for the pound obviously with the announcement of what is the most looking like to be Boris Might be just a bit choppy in price action build up to that However, obviously would be marking up at s1 level and also from the upside as well You can see just the highs over the last two days and of course today as well getting lower as well So just getting squeezed in from the upside. So it might be that later on today at some point or in the week We can get a bit of a push above that level There as well. You can see this trend line from last week while choppy on Friday did break and then act as decent resistance Early hours this morning. So we still have that on there starting from the low of the 17th And then from the high of Thursday Friday Price to skit and squeezed in from the upside so a couple key points certainly from a an intraday perspective here To bring in around the s1 and then up towards what are currently on the futures is looking around 125 60 Which obviously is quite a fair way away for now But that's somewhere I'll be be looking up to the upside and then if we S1 was to break fruit. You see a bit of a bit of an area of resistance So it could offer a bit of support around 124 81 where we had a high of the morning on the 18th as well But pound is under a bit of pressure the euro Looking here longer time friends, but it's on a 240. You can just see the importance of this support level Just going back over the last few weeks really back into the middle part of June really solid level support Starting you know, we could argue on the third of June and then in the middle as well So really keeping a closer eye on that can we get a you know closed Even a 240 candle but the daily close below this level and you'd imagine a drift back down towards those lows that we had on the 23rd and the 30th of June would come relatively quickly to the upside I know it's a fair way away now, but you can see that new range that we Just made after breaking through there on the fifth around 113 36 and a half give or take a few Ticks either way. You've almost got this new range So just to be aware of that if we were to have a push higher you would want that side of it to break But at the moment the the euro dollar does seem that whenever it does want to push higher There's always a decent move lower So just keeping a close eye on that bottom end and it could see a further push down having a look at the Intro day just have a look at some of the key levels up towards the pivot You can imagine there'd be some decent resistance around that However, just having a look to see What's going on this morning? Yeah, that dollar showed just coming in a touch again And you can see from the low that we had back on Friday whether there'd be enough volume for this You can see we're just contained from this morning and then again just around 730. So worth keeping a You know monitor what happens around this trend Speaking of trend lines and more longer term here the Aussie dollar which had a bit of a break The end of well during last week, I should say Only to close back down below finished above last night. So starting here and so make this chart bit smaller from 2018 that high Just up here top left. You can see that came through Got the third test back on the on the 5th of July and we are now back above that area So worth again marking that up to see what happens now. We've got really a You know properly confirmed break So keeping a watch on this trend line how we finish the day, of course will be important To see if we can actually get a push higher and then to the upside Well, we didn't quite make it but the previous low that we had on the 23rd 20 where 23rd of April just a bit higher around 7105 on the futures Looks like a good resistance level and obviously got the 70 handle just below the trend line for now The yen I saw read in the chat was talking about the The yen on the daily and that's certainly One to have marked up as we can see we're just starting to come back down to test some of these But lower trend lines and certainly on the 240 time frame which I was put on now You can see how well that's been respected a couple of false breaks if you like I know this trend line isn't exactly perfect. Let's get that on a bit better there But you can see the importance of this and if that was to have a bit of a break lower Then I wouldn't be too surprised to see a faster move down to some of these levels that we had back on the 16th the 11th and again the 9th Gold similar in that there is a nice trend line. That's been forming Over the last well, I'll put this on the 15 minute. So you can see here going back to Pivots on the end of last week See just starting to get squeezed in from the the downside We know how quickly gold can move on these trend line breaks So that's something I'd have marked up and then to the upside really the top end of this range From Friday evening around seven o'clock to this morning I'd only really be looking to to get involved if we were to come to these areas at 14 29 or 14 30 And then this trend line as well to the upside if we were to get through there The pivot is a nice point or just above there By six cent or so you can see the breakdown from Friday previous low pivot Looks like a quite good area break of the trend line Obviously would be looking to target the low of Friday before it gets a bit more serious down to towards the levels that we had Back on the low the 18th around 14 15 point six equities and The pound would be once I just be cautious today And well expertise for the week as well. So we're burning is coming out before and after The cash market open. I just be I just be on edge as such. I wouldn't really looking to hold positions for too long You can see this morning. We have pushed higher after in a decent down move on Friday The pivot has acted as resistance a couple of times Obviously that remains important level the key one to the upside for the week Where I feel a bit more comfortable going long should we say around 29 92 Quite a key point where we had support then resistance back on Friday But for now just fading to make, you know, that low from the back end of this range You can see starting at 29 74 and then the lower end of that around 70 which was the low of the 10th high of the morning of the 7th and then where we touched late on Friday evening as well. So perhaps a new smaller type of range here between 70 and 92 Where it might be a bit safer looking at this in the afternoon after some of the earnings have come out You can see we are just trending high. I'm not the greatest trending line But it might be opportunity wise later for a break of that or looking to see what happens around this pivot Area and I'll see even then blowing this down You can see 29 85 and a half would be a key point as well So just to go over that calendar one more time from today relatively quiet just looking on that on the data front It remains to be seen If we can get any further leaks regarding, you know, the Boris Johnson Situation it looks like it's pretty much nailed on as ampersand in the high 90 percent So we'll obviously know this this time tomorrow and then tomorrow onwards is where it gets slightly more interesting Tuesday Wednesday Thursday, you can see quite big as busy on the data front as usual Any questions, please do let us know we'll get the the strategy report out Before midday as well. So any questions even regarding that, please do let us know But if I don't speak too soon, I hope you'll have a good trading day and great week ahead