 Hello and welcome to NewsClick, where today we'll be discussing the situation in Syria, especially after the attack on Turkish troops on March 19th, which led to two soldiers being killed. The attack was reportedly carried out by sections affiliated to Al-Qaeda, which Turkey has been supporting. To talk more about this, we have with us Prabir Prokayas. Prabir, thank you for joining us. So one of the key aspects of this attack has been that it was carried out by groups, reportedly carried out by groups, which Turkey has been supporting all this while. And these groups have apparently been unhappy with the March 5th ceasefire, which was signed between Russia and Turkey, which also mandated that they would patrol the M4 highway. So at that point, we talked about how this could actually backfire on Turkey, and Turkey could be in a tough situation. The ceasefire itself could unravel. So are these attacks kind of indicative of that process happening? I think there are two aspects to it. What is that M4 highway was always critical for the Syrian government? And they had said that that was non-negotiable, that the M4 highway would be open to the Syrian government traffic. Now this was really what the battle last month was all about, how to make M5 and M4 free of militant disruption or militant control. And M5 is now completely within the Syrian government's control. M4 was something which they had to fight more if they had to take over that territory. And that was going to be difficult because it's also has, on one side Idlib, the other side Jishul Fugor, both of which are under the control of this Al Qaeda, Al Qaeda light, or some other forces which are working together. Now Turkey had given them protection, clearly. In the battle over M5, Turkey had protected them and also tried very hard to aid them by even striking Syrian government forces. So given this, something had to got to give because you remember, this was a long time agreement which had been made that M4 and M5, Turkey would guarantee that this would not be under the control of the militants. So the compromise this time was M4 would be jointly patrolled by both forces of the Russian government as well as the Turkish government. So the Turkey and Russian forces would ensure that M4 would be open to all traffic. This obviously was not something that liking of the forces inimical to the Syrian government. And particularly because this also means giving up control of Jishul Fugor, which is something which is still under the control of this forces. So I think that's the reason for the unhappiness. But at the same time, let's look at other picture. Can these rebels or this rebel forces, which are really Al Qaeda light, really hold out against Syrian government, Russian forces and Turkish forces? I don't think that's likely. So essentially they may say that they are not under the control of the Turkish government, which is true, but that they are not really a B team of the Turkish government, which is true. But at the same time, can this survive without Turkish protection is a big question. And I don't think Turkey will now give the protection and will try particularly after this to see that M4 highway is kept open. So I'm still hopeful that Turkey will abide by the agreement and ensure that M4 is kept open. Now what it means for the larger picture in Italy is not clear to me because this also allows Turkey an official position to move its forces into Idlib government, which is Syrian territory. So in some sense, it also allows for a greater role of Turkey within the Idlib government itself and not just a de facto supporting the rebel forces, but as a part of this agreement. So I think it's a double-edged sword as of now. But I do think that it also makes the position of the rebels increasingly untenable unless they completely come under the Turkish protection. But on the other hand, Turkey also has a bit of a Hobson's choice, so to speak. Because on the one hand, there is a refugee problem. And especially at this time of coronavirus with chaos in the government and a climate of general fear going on in society, this is an issue they have to deal with very strongly. On the other hand, any sort of lessening of what they see as pressure easily gives opportunities for the Syrian government to actually step up its offensive if it's permitted to. Well, you know, the refugee problem is a much bigger one, and these refugees do not really want to come back to Syria. They essentially are now looking as economic migrants, and they would like to migrate to Europe. With the coronavirus, as you said, fear what it is. I don't think there is any prospect now of this becoming a big issue. I think Turkey will have to control what it earlier was relaxed about letting the economic refugees enter Europe. I think that's not their likely scenario as of now. So I think that these things will go on the back burner for now. And as far as the Syrian government is concerned, which is the other major player in this situation right now, the ceasefire itself was seen as a possibility for the Syrian government to sort of reinforce its soldiers, take some time, maybe gather some reinforcements and prepare for the next round of an assault, preferably again with Russian Air Force assistance. So do you see that prospect panning out the next couple of months? If you see the map itself south of M4, you will see that becomes an isolated temporary for the militants. So that section is likely to fall to the Syrian government forces and they're mobilizing in that way. The other part is Jishul sugar. I think that's something also the Syrian government will probably take over. So that will leave Idlib and Idlib town to the Syrian Turkish border. That's the only territory which is still remain under militants control and under the protective umbrella of the Turkish forces. So we'll have to see how that pans out for the time being, Syria would like to focus now back probably after this M4 and M5 being free to like to focus back on its eastern border because that's something which also needs to be controlled. They still have American troops over there. There are still oil wells not under their control. Whatever oil is there in Syria is in that part. Then you have also the border with Turkey. So on the what is called the Kurdish side. So all of that I think is what their focus can go back once M4 and M5 are both firmly under the control or at least traffic being able to move in this part. And finally there's definitely the question of the Turkey, Russia are very tentative alliance that they're formed and we saw this earlier play out in the north also and now we're seeing this playing out here. But on the other hand of course the US has also been sort of trying to what do you call win Turkey back. So as far as Turkey is concerned is there a leeway for it to sort of negotiate with both the powers is there a possibility of them trying to say pivot back to NATO and the European alliance especially at this time. At this point it doesn't look like Turkey wants to pivot back to NATO. I think it's increasingly clear that Turkey is wants to play an independent role in the region. And it is willing to come to some understanding with Russians because they recognize that Russia is the only external power who can play some role in the region. And it doesn't think that the United States today has a long-term future in the region. And particularly as it's basic allies in the region are really the monarchies and they increasingly would have a hard time. And with the oil crisis the oil prices have been crashed. I don't think they look upon the United States as a major player now in the region. Thank you so much Praveen. That's all we have time for today.