 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire Dot-com it is college football bowl season We're gonna break down where you can find some betting value at the biggest bowls of the 2019 2020 season with Ed Going through his numbers over at the power egg.com. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com joined here as always by the aforementioned Dr. Ed Fang you can find his work over at the power egg.com and find him on Twitter at the power egg Ed Happy Bowl season to you. How are you doing today? I'm doing great. This week has been super fun because I get to talk about bowls with people like you I've been doing kind of a daily series on my own podcast where I just get to talk about various aspects of bowls Last week was a lot of time Through the tedious details of going through each of these bowl games and writing out my bowl report You know which which I mean I enjoy doing it, but not as much as talking about these games afterwards So, yeah, I'm in a really good spot this week pump to accept pump to talk about some bowl games and Yeah, we got a lot of good stuff on the like big-time bowl memories because for me I always remember I I was like sitting in I think it was my mom's basements, which is very stereotypical for a guy who does Fantasy sports betting and podcasting stuff. Anyway, it was it was true. I was in my mom's basements I was watching Baylor in their bowl game and RG3 had like One of the most disgusting performances. I've seen in my entire life. I was against Washington You know, I think he didn't he like a stat line there wasn't like discussing or anything, but like the game itself 67 to 56 That was the Alamo bowl back in 2011 Like I just remember watching that entire game and it being like this just joyous experience Any bowls specifically stand out to you. Yeah, I mean the the Statue of Liberty Boise State, Oklahoma Bowl game definitely stands out to me I think my wife and I had just bought a new TV. Yeah, which was like pretty awesome back in 2008 I think it was it just moved me. It was a 2005 Because we had just moved to San Francisco got this new TV and then there was like the most amazing game ever Yeah, it was after the 2006 season, but it was in 2017 January 1st. Yeah So yeah, I mean that was definitely a memory USC versus Texas the Vince Young Reggie Bush laterally For a formal game was definitely up there as well. Yeah, I think that like we could talk about good games I just prefer really bad games that are really entertaining We're actually gonna talk about the cheese at bowl later on I think that last year's cheese at bowl was also wildly entertaining but for like Different reasons because it was one of the most hideous games that I've ever seen played in history of like the universe So bowl season can be beautiful in multiple respects It can be beautiful because it's so bad too and it gets underway very soon We're gonna break it all down and how you can bet bowl season here in just one second at first a quick reminder to make Sure you subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast because tomorrow We're gonna have an NFL preview of week 7 or week 16 with with Edward e-gross as well breaking down his favorite bets of the week So make sure you subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Apple podcast Spotify stitcher You name it you can find us there and while you're there Please leave a rating and review as well There is no covering the past for today because there are no things to wrap up from last week But before we dive in here to Covering the present and taking a look at these bowl games and how add bets bowl games I want to remind you that if you want to get in on the action Check out the Fandals sportsbook and place your first bed today if you lose Fandals will give you a refund of up to five hundred dollars in psych credit visit sportsbook.fandals.com for more details terms and conditions apply Must be twenty one plus and physically present in New Jersey, Pennsylvania or West Virginia or Indiana gambling problem call 1-800 gambler. Let's pause now and dive into this bull season and let us know where Ed sees some betting value for this year Covering the present Already Ed bull season as mentioned is coming up right around the corner and you actually released an entire bowl report Over at the power rank and you sent me a copy and I'm slipping through it It's a lot of work that it went into this thing How long does that actually like take to prepare just like from a preparation perspective? Yeah, I don't really want to talk about it Bring you back to the dark days. I Mean there's 40 games 39 games 39 games enough and I essentially go through each one I look for injuries and player absences try to get that Try to figure out match ups, you know If a team has a particularly good defense or particularly good offense try to mention that as well Try to look at the location of every game. There's actually two teams that are playing on in their home stadium You know, it's a little bit different with bowl games That's still only maybe like a quasi home kind of thing, but like I mean, I think it's important to know that So yeah, just go through all those things and write up a couple paragraphs Maybe a couple sentences to depending on on what the situations are. Oh quarterbacks Yeah, if it's if a team played multiple quarterbacks over the season I kind of wanted the context of that whether they dropped off whether they got better, you know For example, Quentin Quentin Dormity at Central Michigan came back and their offense got a lot better Big part of their run to almost winning the Mac championship game So so things like that things that you want to pay attention to if you're a better things that can kind of change your prediction and Yeah, so yeah, that was a lot of last week and finished it up. I guess Monday was everything got got put together Still still get that ball reporter over at the powering now. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, it's still up there Okay, perfect. So you can find that over at the powering comm this thing includes like like Ed said it has his numbers on every game For the bull season. It also has like a ranking of Confidence if you're playing on ESPN, I believe they have like confidence numbers for each game based on how, you know likely you think that team is to win that game and You actually sprinkle in some stuff too that we talked about a lot from Arch Madness where you can see how often the public is picking team X and If your numbers give them lower odds of winning that's spot to be contrarian I think that I wouldn't have thought of that process for this It makes a ton of sense for like for like a bracket, but it also makes sense that it would go here It's something I would have thought of personally Yeah, I know and it's interesting too because it really matters what type of pool you get into You actually can't be contrarian in a pool in which every game is worth the same, right? Because you can't change the variance of results So you have to the only way you can change the variance of your results is to mess with the confidence points And so those are the type of pools that that you want to be in and I talk about it Actually, I mean there's a there's a there's a big post on my site where I talk about that From a couple years back still applies But but yeah, no all the fun of March madness. We get to do that during bull season, too It's just like a little preview a little warm-up for March And definitely good to get us back in the swing of things for that So again check that out over at the power ranked calm But from a betting perspective, I think that the bull season is very interesting because it's kind of fluid You know, we've always got it changing and not knowing if guys are gonna play it They're gonna sit out there was news just this week that Georgia's gonna be that both They're starting tackles for this game and we've had this happen for a couple years And I think Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette kind of keyed this off and got a couple years of data now We'll agree your last year. Do you think that books are doing a good enough job of accounting for these absences? Or can we still get a bit of an edge if we're paying attention to who will or will not be playing? Yeah, I mean, I think you have to go on a case-by-case basis, you know We'll talk about Alabama, you know, their top corner is not playing If you watched a lot of Alabama games and you know how well like whoever's gonna replace him is You know, everybody got us has told me about how saving gets all his guys ready You won't see a drop-off like you saw with Texas the secondary when they had a bunch of injuries You know, if you've what I haven't watched enough Alabama games to to make that assessment, but if you have I definitely think there's There's an edge there, you know, Michigan's got some really good receivers So I think you go with a case-by-case basis, you know If it's some some linebacker that doesn't have NFL potential then, you know It probably shouldn't be much of an adjustment If it's a first-round cornerback pick And you know, Michigan's bringing in NFL talent at receivers that that could matter Yeah, absolutely. I think that with the Georgia example We're gonna talk about Georgia versus Baylor in a little bit when it's both starting offensive tackles That's very difficult for me to ignore because both those dudes carry like, you know first-round equity From an NFL draft perspective sounds like Deandre Swift It sounds like he's gonna play He isn't officially like I don't think he said officially that he is but I will believe that When I see it. This guy has bum shoulder got two carries in the SEC championship game Is probably a pretty high pick in the NFL draft I don't I don't think he play I don't think he plays in this game Well, I don't know why he would either because Baylor is a good defense, you know, like they don't have a reputation for being a good defense, but they're not bad They're a physical defense, right? Like they like to slam guys on the ground Like if you've seen any of their games, right? And part two is if you were a running back running behind an offensive line that is lacking to elite, you know tackles You know collegiate tackles Probably not gonna be a good showcase for your draft stock. So Like Deandre Swift might you might want to consider potentially sitting this one out Again, I don't think he's officially announced yet, but those two guys have so Keep abreast of these things and like try to know I guess to try to be ahead of these things too If you think there's really good chance that someone's gonna say they're not gonna go We saw that that line move for Georgia already a point with the announcement that their tackles We're gonna, you know, skip this game. So try to be ahead of things when you can but ed That's that's not the easiest task by any means Yeah, it's not. I mean, you know, Georgia probably has a couple five stars back in up those tackles. So Um, yeah, so definitely an area where if you do your homework, you can you can potentially get an edge Absolutely, and it's it's definitely It's there's a lot of wheels in motion here But there are major upsides to being aware of the effects of that What are some other factors that help you when you're trying to spot inefficient lines for bowl games? Because I think that we talked about this a little bit last week, but there are definitely The the the difference in schedules for these teams is going to be wider than it is during the regular season Is that one of the big things you look at when trying to find inefficient lines? Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I mean the number, you know, my numbers kind of speak for themselves because I mean the one thing I'm very confident about is the way I just restrained the schedule You can definitely see that If if there's an sec team going against an acc team You know, probably my numbers are going to be on the side of the sec team Against the spread. There's actually one example where an acc team is favorite to to actually win the game outright But that's something that you can just kind of get from the numbers I think something else that I that I try to do in the report and I try to look at for teams You know A team that has gotten perhaps lucky in one-score games For example, like baler. They were five and no in one-score games Heading late into the season. You can see that when they struggled a bunch I think that west virginia game that we talked about and then they You know, and then they lost two one-score games to Oklahoma to to kind of end their season But still they were five and two in one-score games and that's something like can that team like that be overrated Those are the things to kind of look for as well Like teams that aren't as good as their record suggests Maybe like a wake force or something like that as well Or maybe aren't as bad as the record suggests I was reading through your bowl preview You can talk about Iowa State a team that we have talked about a lot On this podcast and if you look at their record a seven and five you'd be like Why on earth were jim and ed talking about this team in the pre-season as being like a good team? But I think you said there were two and five in one-score games, which is probably not sustainable Right exactly. I mean, I mean, you know, and honestly, they really should have beaten northern Iowa about more than than one score which which they did as well But yeah, I mean, that's a that's a perfect example what we're talking about That Notre Dame game might be one of the better games In this bull docket, I'm pretty excited about that Brock Purdy is the real deal I believe in his ability to throw the football And interestingly like Iowa State's defensive numbers have kind of gotten better towards the tail end of the season as well And that's kind of where they made their bread and butter last year too was with the defense Brock Purdy was awesome too, but like the defense was kind of the I would say the key to them really doing what they did last year So seeing them improve throughout the year is interesting Purdy didn't have like a great year by any means But I still I like you believe in the talent there and think that's eventually over a larger sample That's going to win out. So definitely an interesting one there for sure But let's dive into the citrus bowl here at we got your Michigan against Alabama And I always like talking to you about Michigan because I love your level of insight into this team And it's an interesting one here because the narrative around this game is that Alabama May not care all that much because they're finally not in the playoff They also don't have to uh, you mentioned the corner back is sitting out And So it's hard to quantify I guess How much a team is going to care does that impact you willing this to bet this game? Give me that there are some intangibles that the numbers may not be able to capture necessarily Yeah, I mean we kind of we can kind of guess at some of those things right So, you know, my numbers say that Alabama should win by about 12 11.8 points Um, I think you need an obvious adjustment Since Tua is not going to be playing in this game You can get a sense for what that adjustment should be from the Auburn game So my number said that Alabama should win by seven The closing market was three and a half points. Uh, so Tua to Mack Jones is about three and a half points seems reasonable to me Um But you know this market this market values at seven So that's another one and a half points and you know, you can probably talk yourself into that because of the absences Um Trayvon digs is the cornerback that I mentioned earlier He's going to be out. Terrell Lewis is a past rusher that's had six sacks 11 and a half tackles for loss and also remember Alabama lost three of their starters on the front in the front seven Earlier this year as well. It hasn't been the same defense I I don't want to bet this game I think the markets are going to be able to do a better job with these injury assessments than I am I think Alabama by seven is fair Um might lean towards michigan just because I feel like they're not missing anybody and Uh, and you know, they have a lot to prove after after kind of a disappointing game against Ohio State disappointing beginning of the season Um, so yeah, I mean lots to consider in this game and and it should be a good one on new year's day And that was interesting too because michigan I think came out together and said that they were on the same page as it pertained to Whether or not they'd be sitting out this game and it seems like everyone is on board they'll be playing this game And I think that that would give me more faith in backing them I agree with you where I don't want to I don't actually want to bet this game Because I think that the line is pretty efficient. They're accounting for those those factors really well But it seems like michigan is taking this game pretty seriously right now At least based on reading the tea leaves and the way that they've been talking about this game Yeah, yeah, we'll see. I mean, you know, they they kind of came out pretty flat last year against Florida So it's not out of the question that they would do that Um, a couple other things to think about I'm from the alabama perspective I mean they have definitely had some poor bowl showings when they weren't in the championship game There's a game against utah and there was also a game where they lost to oklahoma in the sugar bowl As well. I mean, it's you know, I think you can count on one hand The number of years in the last decade that alabama hasn't been playing in the title game. So Um, also, I don't think we're done with bama players not playing in this game. Okay Uh, I mean, I actually made a list of projected first and second round Players for alabama Um, I only looked at one mock draft, but did you know, I mean, it was it was a list of eight guys So, um, you know, one of them is jerry judy. He said he's definitely playing So, you know props to him for doing that But I I don't know if we've seen the last of alabama players sitting out this game And I think that that's important too because when you look at mac jones One of the reasons why you can still project him to be decently efficient is because of the people around him So if you lose one of those three Disgusting wide receivers, that's pretty impactful. If you lose, uh, their tackle who is projected to be a first round pick too That's pretty impactful and there's a lot of fragility there when it comes to michigan's or to alabama's side So if you feel a bit better about the michigan side than we do You would be wise to bet it now Before that news comes out again, we think this is a pretty efficient line at alabama minus seven Total is 59. We think that's pretty efficient but If you have A further inclination towards michigan, maybe you like what the offense did in the second half of the year and you want to buy into that It'd probably be wise to do so before we get further announcements about alabama Which is something that we could still see anything else. Do you have on this ed game on this game ed? Um No, I mean, I think we covered covered most of it. Um, I think you know kind of from the fan perspective You know, this is this is an opportunity from michigan Yeah, when they first announced the bowl game. I was kind of like, oh that kind of that's kind of a bummer But given the circumstances given that alabama doesn't have Their starting quarterback and five stars on defense Um, this is a real opportunity for michigan So they you know, they may may take advantage of it And you kind of don't want to go into the off season with a really bad taste in your mouth So a lot of motivation there from michigan. I think that's at least impactful Uh, but inefficient line overall. Let's move now to the rose ball We got organ versus wisconsin near wisconsin two and a half point favorite The total is 51 points and organ coming off a huge win against a very good utah team But we've been pretty into wisconsin uh relative to markets ed you had them In the big 10 championship game or your numbers like them How do you see this game playing out with two teams that I think are have been interesting from a betting perspective pretty much the entire year long Yeah, I mean my numbers really think that wisconsin is better on both sides of the ball When I look at adjusted success rate, they're sixth on offense second on defense And that's really propelled me to like them against minnesota late in the season That and the fact that I don't I thought the markets in minnesota a little bit overrated Yeah, um, when you look at when you look at organ, they're 23rd on offense and 14th on defense The defense got off to a torrid start. Uh was pretty much Was was really good for a while then struggled a little bit later in the season And um, the offense is pretty good with jesson herbert. So, uh, my numbers like organ Sorry wisconsin by three points in this game. So that suggests two and a half is is pretty efficient um, so, you know, no opinion on the side there and um, I haven't thought much about the total But my number is actually at 57, which is quite a bit larger than uh, than than what the market is. Um So It might be a thing where it should be a little bit lower Just probably because wisconsin's defense looked worse by yards per play Which is actually what goes into my totals model right now and not success rate. So a little bit caution there, but Um, but yeah, it should it should be a good game This is a rose ball game and people players don't set out the rose ball for whatever reason Good marketing over 100 years Of of calling it the granddaddy of them all So you don't have that to think about I think both these teams will be pretty pumped to be there Which will not be the case in the sugar bowl, which we'll which we'll talk about next So, yeah, I mean the rose ball definitely has some mystique and for good reason If you've never been there, it's on new year's day in pasadena. It's that 330. I guess it's Uh, whatever the time 530 eastern, I think Yeah, 530 eastern and the sun sets over the rose bowl During the second half of the game. It's a it's a pretty perfect environment great environment for football I've been I've been lucky enough to go three times. Oh, okay. I was gonna ask you then, okay Yeah, so I saw stanford get beat by wisconsin in the ron danier Oh, yeah Then saw stanford beat wisconsin Well one year and then uh get get upset by michigan state a couple years after that Yeah, I would love to go into that game mostly because I have always lived in very cold weather parts of the country and the thought of going to Uh, california in january sounds pretty sweet to me Uh, but I think the scheme is also interesting from like a an evaluation perspective because Justin herbert is going to be draped out. He is draped eligible He will be in the draft this year and a lot of my work over a number of fire revolves around evaluating quarterback prospects And I still have no idea what to think of jesson herbert because we got this very large sample on this guy You know nfl scouts seem to love him but the numbers are I don't want to say I feel like mediocre is is kind of like a negative word But I feel like they're aggressively mediocre like they're aggressively good. They're not great They're aggressively good is the way that I would do them his adjusted yards per attempt 9.2. That's not bad Uh, but his yards per attempt 8.2. That's not huge Uh, and those numbers do matter when evaluating quarterbacks experience matters a lot age matters a lot too So it's not the only factor but like I still don't know what to think about this guy and seeing him against a really good defense again Because at utah very good too. So seeing another sample of him against a good defense is impactful Yeah, but let's talk about that utah game. I mean he was not the reason they won. You're right. Yes No, but I but I felt like utah had their bad game on defense, right? They got gashed by a lot of big plays I mean something that hadn't happened. Uh, we know there's kind of a lot of randomness and In big plays from from the research that bill connelly has done Couple of like pretty nasty break just busted coverages in the secondary So, you know, there's a couple, you know, this and this is why pff is good because they'll grade like they You know, he had a touchdown throw Which was not the hardest throw but the guy was wide open and just you know You know went 30 yards for a touchdown. So, um, you know, they they clearly had a good performance against utah in that game I don't think that necessarily makes me believe that jesson herbert Should be a top pick even though he he might be A lot of the numbers are yeah aggressively average. I think that's a good way of putting it and you always I mean i'm always a little he's had a pretty good year He's exceeded my expectations this year But I think you always get a little nervous with a quarterback prospect when the first thing out of a scouts mouth is He's six six and a great athlete I was like, yeah, but what about his you know, what about his accuracy? Yeah, tell me about his accuracy because that's the first thing and then you know If he's got a cannon for an arm and he's six six and a good athlete That's obviously important in the modern nfl as well Right and a good arm is good But if that good arm doesn't translate to good production, then what's the point? I guess it's always been kind of my perspective on it. I know that like we've seen josh alan You know improve a lot this year, but it's still not good and like I feel like that's good That's kind of the mistake that uh candy made so in the the I always like I always think there's value in watching players I'm very much a data guy first and foremost, but I think there's value in watching players I am more desperate to watch players where I deviate from consensus And I think I deviate a bit from consensus on Justin Herbert So I think I really want to watch this game see how he does against another good defense because I still don't have a firm grasp on what to think about this guy But the lines here pretty efficient uh with wisconsin to an half point favorite Let's move now to that sugar bowl after the announcements this week with georgia They are now a six and a half point favorite over baler. The total is down to 41 It was 41 and a half prior to that We also still don't really know about charlie brewer's availability going into this game They actually played pretty well without him and the big to a wealth championship So how are you viewing this game that because there's a lot of moving pieces here between the baler quarterback situation All the georgia guys potentially setting it. There's a lot to juggle here Yeah, I'm still angry at the the baler third string quarterback for busting those two big plays and Yep, not in oklahoma cover the nine or whatever points that I that I need in that game I'm personally not going to make too much of those two big plays Um, I think the backup was not very good if I remember right Um, he got like effectively benched right and then they moved to the third stringer. Yeah Yeah, so and the third stringer was a true freshman or something like that I mean, I think it's one of these things like a program like baler like and and they're you know I think they should be pretty excited to be in a new year six bowl I think they'll they'll get I think brewer is probably going to play unless there's something really wrong with him um But this is the sugar bowl, uh, two of georgia's best defensive players decided not to play last year They lost by 14 points, which you know, wasn't just the defense's fault Like the offense didn't show up for pretty much the first time one of the first times last season Uh, remember that was a pretty potent offense by jake from last year. That has not really been the case this year Uh, and it's just interesting, you know, you when you come into the season and you say hey quarterback's back Sure, they lost their top three receivers, but it's georgia. They recruit. Well, um, you know, you just reload and you go Yeah, that didn't really happen this year. Um, they they weren't they weren't explosive at all Even though they were pretty good 13th and am I just success rate on offense? Um, so Oh, can I read my favorite part of the report? Yeah And this is before the news today, uh georgia had two players skip a new year's six bowl game last season And I wonder if top prospects like all kinds of tackle Andrew thomas and running back deandre swift might do the same. So thomas has already announced So, um, and and I just I don't know swift had two carries in the sec title game like what I mean, I mean, I guess he's had a month to heal the shoulder Get ready. So Um, yeah, we'll see. I mean, I think obviously like these absences, you know, are there more absences? From georgia that that could potentially, uh, you know hurt them even more We shall see. Um, so and and you gotta you gotta remember like I think georgia came into this year thinking they were a playoff team I think they thought they were a playoff team and you know until the sec title game where where they obviously were not as good As lsu in that game, uh, a little bit of disappointment In that performance baler is going to be is going to be pretty pumped to be in this game I think that the thing that's more Confusing about georgia's offense not being all that impressive this year is that They did lose nfl talent and that always matters like if you are undrafted and you go away That matters, but it's not like they had like first round picks who who left as a wider series michael hardman, uh left obviously a major speed component there But he was not a focal point in their offense by any means, uh from a you know, like a market share perspective Riley Ridley, I believe went on dratchity. He's actually gotten some on with the bears recently Uh, but like he was not a high end prospect terry godwin another guy who's in the nfl But like kind of like a practice squad type dude. Isaac nada. Uh, they're tight end. I think he's with alliance still I believe he played a couple snaps, uh like last week. So like there are four guys who are currently At least tangentially on nfl rosters right now and that matters But I think that I was with you where I was willing to Discount it quite a bit because it's not like these guys were first round picks now hardman went in the second round That was weird, uh because he wasn't projecting anywhere near there. It was the terry kill situation going on But I was willing to discount it too And I think that it's been hard for me to like abandon my prior on jake from because I went into this year Thinking pretty highly of him his yards per attempt as a true freshman was 9.0 It was 9.0 last year too. He was not this dink and dunk conservative type quarterback There were tendencies in there that you know, we've seen kind of fleshed out this year But my prior on jake from is that he's pretty freaking good and it's been really hard for me to to divorce myself from that take Yeah, and you and you saw them come out against lsu and throw the ball down the field and the receivers dropped passes Um, so I'm with you on from I think he's good. I mean, I think he you know evolved very quick as a freshman From dink and dunk to someone that was you know, throwing some pretty long passes against Alabama in the title game And uh Yeah, we'll see. I mean it You know, I mean again like my numbers have liked over on this Georgia team for for a long for for a long part of the year because they kind of expect Um, Georgia to be what we expected them on offense. It hasn't happened I thought it might happen against lsu. Uh, it didn't maybe it'll happen against baler Although I think baler's defense is very good and very physical But do you have a feeling of the spread here at six and a half points? Um, I mean my number says georgia by eight. I'm I don't know if that's the right way to lean Uh, that's before all the the guy sitting out is factored into so probably pretty efficient right six and a half Probably, okay. Let's move on to a couple other bowls here because we'll go ahead Oh, I was gonna say we'll get to we'll get to a game in which I think the line is vastly non-efficient Uh, in covering the future. So okay, we're we're gonna talk about that one later Any other bowls you'd like to highlight where your number shows some value for this season Yeah, I mean I want to talk about usc versus iowa and I want to talk about it in terms of your bowl pool and thinking contrarian because 73 of brackets have picked iowa over usc And just kind of zoom back and just think about iowa usc and then think about 73 of people picking iowa Yeah, um, this doesn't really make sense to me And it kind of goes to show you, you know It gets pretty bad when the public's trying to pick bowl games, especially some of these I mean these these are two power five teams that people know a lot about um Usually when you have this type of like, you know, kind of inefficiency and what people are picking It's because of record, but they kind of had similar records this year The guy was nine and three and usc was eight and four or something like that So anyways, this is this is an opportunity for you to get ahead in your bowl pool. So My numbers say that iowa has a 52 chance to win So the idea with contrarian strategies, if you're in a pool With more than 30 people you would say all right I'm going to pick usc And I'm going to lower the expected number of points that I'm going to get in this pool But I'll take it because I'm going to give this game a lot of confidence points And I'm essentially going to increase the variance of my results So if usc wins they cash in on the 48% win probability I'm going to get a ton of points that not a lot of other people in my pool are going to get And I think there's really good reason to think Um that usc can win this game not not just because of the numbers like their offense has been Really good. They were eighth in my adjusted success rate and that is with uh, not with the starter jt daniels who got hurt um In the first game of the year USC's defense has been terrible. Uh, there's 79 in my adjusted success rate but You know good enough to save clay help this job. So um And you know, Iowa just not particularly exciting on either side of the ball Uh by my adjusted success rate their 40th on offense 29th on defense I mean, I could very well see usc winning this game. It's in san diego a little bit closer to home So, uh, that that's an interesting game for me Yeah, and I think that For me, I'm guessing Is it is the negative sentiment around usc Due to the clay help clay helton stuff because there was I think it was I don't want to say there was a An outlet a major outlet that reported that he was fired at one point and then obviously came back You know, he was never fired. There was an erroneous report. Is that stink around them? Is that's what causing the public to gravitate so heavily towards Iowa? I don't know. I mean what what is so exciting about this Iowa team? Uh, you know like I mean what gets you fired up about Iowa? I mean Nate Stanley's an okay quarterback. Um I don't know like a jamp. Vanessa is good. Um, he's good Tristan worse is gonna play uh, they've both committed to that but michael pitton's gonna play for usc, too so this is a pretty like This is a pretty You know locked or loaded game and it seems like most of the big guys are gonna be playing It's just hard for me to Figure out why I guess there's been some stink around usc for a while now So maybe like they become like the anti public team, uh, like the the non-dallas cowboys for some reason, but I don't know. It's interesting. I don't really I don't really get it What if you're in a small pool head? Uh, let's say you're in a small pool just your family You know, you got five to ten people Would you still be inclined to try to increase the variance there or you just going straight up in a pool of that size? No, I would I would just go straight up Use my numbers Uh, a couple options there. Uh, you can get My points based numbers if you start up for my email newsletter So that's an easy way to fill out your confidence points there Or you can get my member numbers if if you buy the the bull report Or become a member of my site. So that'll help you out there Yeah, so keeping keeping in mind the the size of the pool What's something ed wrote about in his book, uh, how to win your march madness bracket Which I still have in my desk over here somewhere. Um, let's find out before march But he wrote about in his book. It's a great strategy both for that and for this So kind of like we said a good warm-up for march We're going to dive into another game here in just one second But first Ed and I always preach searching for the best value when betting on games Well, look no further than the new odds comparison our engineers have developed over at number fire dot com Odds fire is a premier odds comparison experience across major bookmakers in the regulated u.s. Market Never settle always get the best odds compare odds quickly identify the best value and even examine first party fan dual data all in one place Check out the experience for free now on number fire or at odds fire dot com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Covering the future All right, let's close out the bowl discussion here with covering the future and ed Last year, like I said the cheese at bowl was one for the ages I remember They had a graphic up during the game where they had changed it to cheese Int bowl because I think that there are more Interceptions than there were completions. I believe I'm trying to remember The specifics of it because this is a glorious game that deserves to be Memorialized statue should be made about the cheese at bowl and this year We get a pretty interesting match between washington state and air force. What do your numbers say about this game? Yeah, I find this game super interesting. I mean washington state came into the season with You know like pre season top 25 height You can understand that they had a tremendous year in 2018 They were 11 and 2 Maybe a little bit inflated record because they were 4 and 1 and 1 score games Which is something that I look for But you could have definitely talked yourself into the sense that mike leach had figured it out of washington state He had averaged four wins in his first three years there and then he had averaged over nine wins in the last four years at washington state So you could think that they were consistently going to win eight to nine games Be a top 25 ish team every year and that's basically what mike leach did at texas tech well, then this season happened and They didn't do so well. They went six and six so they barely made the bowl game here The offense was brilliant. My adjusted success rate. They were fourth in the nation Not shocking given what mike leach Normally does but the defense completely cratered. They were terrible And I think they moved up to to get to 89th in my adjusted success rate for the season So now they're playing air force and this is a team that got no votes in the pre season ap poll And when I did my numbers they were 70th, but they've had a tremendous season they've been 10 and 2 And when I look at numbers from this season, so I look at points Success rate yards per play put them together according to ways that I think are most predictive Air force is 29th in the nation. So that's pretty good. However, that's actually still one spot behind Washington state so Washington state is still the better team even if you just take the data from this season A lot of that's obviously propelled by the offense a lot of that is strength of schedule adjustments pack 12 versus mountain west so If you made, you know, if they would have played in the first game of the year on a neutral site, you know Washington state would have been a big favorite, but even after all the data from the current season The number is still like Washington state Also, I mentioned those preseason polls because that's still a powerful predictor at this point in the year A higher-ranked team in the previous and polls won over 58 percent of bowl games Which is pretty remarkable given the fact that they have no data from the current season So last I checked air force was a three-point favorite. I think that's kind of insane I'll take Washington state plus three And that is still the number at vandal sportsbook right now Washington state plus three and I think part of the reason why You know, you could I think that the rebuttal to Washington states and maybe ignoring their preseason things is saying well gardener minchew is better than we thought I don't know if that's necessarily true. If you look at gardener minchew's efficiency numbers in the NFL this year He's right above mitral trebisky and we don't talk about gardener minchew the same way we talk about mitral trebisky Partly because of expect. I mean I wasn't tired of his expectations Trebisky the second overall pick Minchew is a mid-round guy, but at the end of the day. It's not as if he is Some elite nfl star in the making. He's he's fine You know, he's he's an okay quarterback who can pass as a starter when he needs to But when you look at your your numbers and see how good the offense was I think that's A pretty resounding rebuttal To the thought that we should toss out all preseason data on Washington state because gardener minchew was a bigger factor That expected those numbers seem to prove that these numbers are are legitimate Yeah, for sure. I mean, I I think they're you know, I mean you can kind of always trust Washington state on offense Yeah, I don't know if there's a year that you you couldn't Now if you take Washington state plus three and air force gets up a couple touchdowns Which could be possible given how bad their defense is You know, you might hate me for a while, but I think the offense I mean, I think by you know by the time you you end up playing the full game Washington state is going to be there and I think I mean I think they can win this game outright And there are a lot of teams that cannot make up a deficit Washington state is one that definitely can So I think that's uh reassuring if they do happen to fall behind from my cover in the future I want to talk about a non college football thing because fendall sports book Just released the odds of the 2020 nascar cup series championship and for the Daytona 500 and I have a lot of very personal takes on these which you can ask me about if you like nascar But I'm gonna limit it to just one here limit my enthusiasm And it's a number that stood out to me as being kind of jarring But that's chris busher at 75 to 1 to win the Daytona 500 and One of the key things with nascar as you move to a new season is you have to account For drivers moving into new equipment because busher Is one of the guys with the new ride for 2020 He is going back to roush fenway racing He was a development guy there back in the day Now going to be a full-time driver there in the cup series and that puts him back into ford And ford's have been pretty dominant at pack racing tracks recently Whereas busher has been in a Chevy in much worse equipment But this is a car specifically That is done well at this track type. It used to be ricky stenhouse jr's ride stenhouse jr Is 20 to 1 because he's been good on pack racing tracks He won the daytona or he won the july daytona race back in 2017 He's led a bunch of laps on this track type And that's largely because stenhouse is good on this track type But it also means that his equipment can play here and busher also a pretty good driver at daytona He was fifth at daytona in both of the 2018 races He was tenth in 2017 as well. So we have a driver Who was good on this track type when he was in really bad equipment? He is now in much better equipment and he's 75 to 1 to win the daytona 500 He has longer odds than the dude who does not currently have a ride for 2020 in daniel hemrick So i want to take advantage of guys who are moving into better equipment as the season changes You know other big benefactors of equipment changes are matt de benedetto got col custer Tyler retic, but all three of those guys are 50 to 1 are shorter and deep inedetto is 32 to 1 I don't think that's a terrible number honestly, but busher is 75 to 1 He allows you to take advantage of the changes in equipment and get some pretty long odds to boot I think that if I were Personally making a number for busher I've not done it my model yet because there's still some You know guys like daniel swarez who are potentially in flux for this year I would think he should be closer to like 40 or so if you put deep inedetto at 32 I think that putting busher at 40 is should probably be better So when the gap is that large between about 40 to 1 and 75 to 1 I'm okay with locking up my bankroll for a couple of months. It's in mid-february. It's a two months and Plunging in on busher at 75 to 1. I would not expect him to close at 75 to 1 I think around 40 is more realistic there but I think it's just it's important to know that there are certain drivers changing equipment for 2020 And nascar and that's a major factor chris bush is one of the better factors and that is not being baked into his number And and I think that this is one of the more interesting things with nascar is like You know for college football dabbo sweeney is still going to be there You know we can change out all the the stuff but like with nascar A driver is not the same driver if he's in different equipment and like it's really interesting to me I think that's one of the parts I find fascinating about nascar is like You're literally a different driver if you're a different car, which is it's just wild. I mean, I love it. I love this time of year I mean, what's the variance in car? Big abilities big So let me think of an example here. Okay, so Matt di benedetto, let me pull up his numbers here in 2018 was with go-fast racing And it wasn't the best equipment. He went to levine family racing last year and the start of the year wasn't good But he eventually picked things up and If he got going on tracks that were less equipment focused, but it was really dramatic So in 2018 with go-fast racing matti benedetto his average finish was 27th out of 40 cars this year his average finish was 18.3 And he's not in his peak. He went from his age 26 to his age 27 season the peak for nascar is your age 39 season For some reason. It's just it's what it is But like the only change for him was his equipment and he improved nine spots in the running order And I find all that very fascinating. I think that that's kind of like a It's an inefficiency that people know about but don't account enough for like we talked about inefficiencies the bull games Like guys sitting out people account for it, but I think with nascar they don't account for it enough when their equipment changes Interesting. I mean, can't you just quantify how much better equipment a is than equipment b? Yeah, that's that's something I try to do I do a primer at the end of the or at the right before the regular season starts for a number of fire where I look at the average driver ratings for each driver within a team and try to bake up what that equipment is worth and Oh, man. I forgot his name here David smith of the athletic does a great job of accounting for equipment. He has it's peer Production and equate equal equipment ring We will try to get David Smith on at some point before the 2020 season starts But he quantifies equipment that way and it tries to take out the equipment look at just the driver and It's really interesting data. So it's uh, you can Quantify it, but I don't think sportsbooks care enough about nascar to do so which is fine. Okay with that Yeah, you should be okay with that Yeah, so we'll see how this goes. Uh, but I think that uh, Chris butchers interesting You can find those numbers for the 2020 championship and for the Daytona 500 now over at sportsbook.fanduel.com Ed we're about to bust into bowl season should be a whole lot of fun Absolutely Do you get time? I know it's busy time of year Do you get time to actually like sit down and watch these games or is life a bit too hectic for you this time of year? I mean eventually, you know, I mean things are busy up until when the bowls start Yeah, and then there's you know, there's kind of I mean still people like Like my stuff because you know, they're betting on games and stuff But you know, there's a big push until the bowl start 2 p.m On friday, which is geez only two days away from now. Um, and then after that try to recover a little bit Yeah, um, and then uh, yeah, we'll definitely be watching some simple ball on saturday Plus you got all the NFL games on saturday, too. Yeah, that's true. I just love the the Feeling of like wrapping presents like, you know, like hanging out And having a bowl game on and like the background. So like I may not be playing like paying like Intent attention to all these there's somewhere. I definitely want to for like NFL valuation purposes But like I just love being able to have it on the background. Uh, having this football on all the time It's it's really joyous. So we're about to get that cranky. Ed. I want to thank you for uh Spreading all of your info for today. Where can people find your stuff and get that bowl report one more time? Yeah, if you're interested in the bowl report, uh, these are my member numbers only time of year You can get my best college football numbers without becoming a member of the site You can go to the power rank net. That's a url that will take you to a page on my site where you can learn more Uh, also the option of becoming a member. Uh, if you do become a member before friday at 2 p.m I'm actually having a drawing for five copies of the logic of betting It's a book by edmiller and and matthew davidow a really good book with a lot of insights in there So gonna have a drawing i'm gonna send out books before uh before the new year for sure Probably next week So just an extra bonus if you do uh decide you want to become a member of the power rank before friday at 2 p.m And a potential christmas present for yourself as well Make sure you check out ed's podcast too about the bowl season by searching for the football analytics show as well Find ed on twitter at the power rank and all his work over at the power rank dot com I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow the fan dual podcast network At fan dual podcast swinging back in tomorrow with a week 17 or week 16 He keeps saying week 17 week 16 nfl preview with edward egross breaking down where he sees some value on that slate Big thank you to calvin thea balls running the video side of things here today Thank you cal is always for doing that and thank you to everyone for tuning in We'll talk to you again tomorrow to break down some nfl bets for this weekend But until then good luck with your bets. We'll talk to you again soon This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network