 how everybody ate a swing GM with X trades and today I'm going over my weekend review. So the main thing I want to cover is my outlook on the markets and kind of how to prepare for the next three months. You know we just had our quarterly options expiration day on Friday and this is a good time to kind of game plan for the next three months and kind of see what will happen. So the first thing I'm going to be looking at is spy and I'm actually you know pretty bearish on the markets right now. You saw a big change of character candle here on 9 10 21. As you could see we had a nice huge big down day with volume and we've seen continued volume and we started actually moving sideways. If you look at almost all these other corrections they've been very steep V shaped sort of corrections. If you go even all the way back to you know the beginning since you know the 2020 low you've had very steep corrections to you know usually start off you know this time we're actually moving sideways. So this is a pretty big change of character and you can even look all the way back you know before 2020. The corrections are usually steep. They're very rarely start off in a sideways manner after the change of character candle and we can you know give countless examples see where you know we usually start off going downwards and then we consolidate. You can even do go the same way back 2018 we start downwards. We could solidify for a little bit but then continue downwards. It's very rare that we kind of see this sort of sideways movement and when we do it kind of signifies to me that there's a change in the shift in the markets and we kind of have to keep notice of that. The second thing is that we clear all these notes. The 50 SMA you know as of recently has been a very good indication of you know kind of a lower boilager band for this rally. So as long as we hold the 50 SMA we've been pretty good. But as you could see really since October we really have not had much follow-through below the 50 SMA and when we do get follow-through below there it almost always touches the 100 SMA and from here that would be a drop to around 430 to another you know 2%. We can even go back to you know prior 2020. As you could see when the 50 SMA holds we usually you know continue a nice bullish rally but when it breaks we usually you know attempt to go for that 100 SMA and there's you know plenty of examples of this. Also we start to have the moving averages the 8 and the 20 SMA starting to roll over as you could see for a lot of these you know quicker steeper V bottom corrections we don't see those moving averages crossovers. That's another sign. The third thing is there's a catalyst and there's a reason to move the markets down. We've had the situation in China with one of the major real estate companies collapsing. This would be kind of the equivalent of the Lehman Brothers situation happening in America and we also have the options expiration to kind of allow these market movers to reposition themselves in preparation for this downside. For example we saw a similar thing in the steel sector around March if you look at stocks like NUE if I turn back my notes you could see look you know NUE STLD. These are really very very much above average volume readings that you would see maybe once a year maybe twice a year and it kind of shows you that the market movers are ready to kind of reposition themselves in a way to allow for upside. So we're kind of seeing that similar action occur in the spy as well. So I think there's some decent chance we at least test 431 but you know there's very good support down here at 423. If the markets do decide to kind of fake us out and move upwards the stocks I'd be targeting is you know Dash stocks like Apple you know sectors like you know CLOU and if we move over to the heat map we can kind of see a large variety of leading sectors for example coal if you look at something like you know BTU see that this is a stock I'd rather buy it looks like a very sharp pullback but relative to you know these other pullbacks you know when a stock rallies this much you're going to see 30% pullbacks instead of your usual 5 to 10% through the spy. So I think 1407 is a very very good support level if we hit it I think it's a pretty low risk opportunity we can look at sectors like aluminum even sectors like you know gambling has been pretty strong relative to the past you know month or two so this is a very good free tool to kind of give you leading sectors that you know might outperform the market if we do see another rally another tool you can use is looking at FFTY this is the IBD ETF and stocks within this ETF are examples like UPST and we could take a further look of the toldings stocks like TASC these stocks are just very very much outperforming the market DLO you know ZIM even really like stocks like ZS these continuously outperform the market and they're going to be a lot safer in my opinion to kind of find the next set of these even something like Crocs then you know looking in the industrial sector something like XLE, XLF these are the sectors are going to want to short if we do see that downside I'm leaning towards that you kind of want to see stocks that have double top have references to go to the downside have been lagging the market for kind of the past five to six months these are going to be a lot easier in my opinion to short than these leadership stocks a lot of times when we do see these corrections we could see these kind of you know sort of outperform or kind of start moving sideways like we see here with UPST instead of moving downwards as for example you saw spy kind of move downwards you know around 2% but UPST has actually risen around 16% from the bottom of this range so these are examples of stocks outperforming and this is where your money is going to want to be if we do see that upwards move on this playing the levels and you can usually a quick way to identify these stocks is that they continuously hold the SMA so stocks like Lowe's during this kind of rally you know COST you know continuously holds the SMA you know BJ's very very similar look here these stocks are you know leading the markets and where my money wants to be other sectors I like is uranium I'm very very high in uranium I think it's a little overextended here but I do see a lot of long term potential I think DNN is at least going to $2 that's been my call out for a long time now stocks like UEC PLAF these are great stocks within the sector that you know show leadership that I you know personally own that I think will have continued upside I've been averaging up on these names because I see this pullback as an opportunity to kind of further invest in these names at discount I would not recommend really going for these stocks right now if you don't already have a position I would try to wait for maybe a 20 SMA retest ideally we see a little consolidation while the market's correct 20 SMA catches up and then these stocks rally another 20 30 percent if you're looking for more value based names I like GDX here as long as it holds this yellow line of 30 64 we you know put the fibs on we could see that this this is a pretty good fib level here and it's been a very long-term support resistance it was a resistance for a long time and now we're back testing this area with good support we're also forming a triple bottom here and we did form a nice lower wick so as long as we hold this I'm pretty bullish if we do see a breakdown though I think it is a pretty good short candidate especially if spy continues to see downside if we get follow through below this 50 SMA I would think that GDX is a good candidate short so that's kind of my quick thoughts and summary on the market to do a quick recap if we see follow through down from the 50 SMA I would be bearish and looking for those double top reference top setups if we do turn around here and end up being bullish I'd be looking at the leaders FFTY you can look at the heat map on ycoff.com these should give you a good understanding of the stocks and most likely we'll lead the market if you look at QQQ quickly a 3075 breaks this is a very good support level here at 369 it lines up with a 50 SMA and is old resistance from there though the next really good support level is 342 and that's around a 7% correction again we could see the same concept here instead of moving down we've kind of had more of a flat or distribution range forming as you could see a lot of these other corrections that you usually start with a pretty steep correction you can go all the way back to you know August of 2020 same sort of concept a lot of the corrections ended up starting with steep downwards corrections same thing here in May can even say the same thing here in August of 2019 these are usually the typical characteristics you see in these corrections so when we see price action differing from the norm these are things you should be taking notes on and you know keeping an eye on it really just playing the levels and have a game plan like I kind of just explained with this video that's kind of what I'm looking at the last thing I quickly forgot to cover is the DJ 20 these are the transports and usually or an indication that you know downside is coming when these stocks usually start lagging the markets we usually do see in some sort of correction and these kind of have been lagging since May and this is a very very key support level here with the year date anchor view op in purple the yellow support level here and the yellow sma signifying the 200 simple moving average a break of this support would be pretty bearish I think we would at least test 13676 if not we're definitely going to go below 13,000 most likely within this purple rectangle so those are kind of my thoughts for the markets I hope you guys enjoyed I hope you guys have learned and good luck in the next trading week