 The UK is in the middle of a transformational journey to becoming a net zero nation. This is a critical period where action to reduce emissions must speed up and emissions must fall across a wider range of sectors. In this year's progress report to Parliament, the Climate Change Committee has assessed the progress government has made so far on this journey. As you heard from Chris just now, we're increasing our focus on monitoring action taking place on the ground. Territorial greenhouse gas emissions, those produced within the UK's borders, as well as the UK's share of emissions from international aviation and shipping, have almost halved in the last three decades. Within the next three, we need to get territorial emissions to net zero and the scale of the challenge is increasing. Consumption emissions, those emitted as a result of goods and services consumed in the UK, irrespective of where in the world the emissions occur, have only started to fall in the last ten years and are still higher than the UK's territorial emissions. All of this has happened while the UK's GDP has continued to grow. Emissions in GDP saw a dip in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and both partially rebounded last year. The fall in 2020 emissions, which were 13% lower than in 2019, came predominantly from travel restrictions during the pandemic. There were also smaller reductions in the electricity and fuel supply and manufacturing and construction sectors, for example through reduced manufacturing output. Emissions from buildings, after adjusting to account for a particularly mild winter, rose in 2020 because there was an increase in home working. In 2021, emissions only partially rebounded and were still 10% lower than in 2019. They remained particularly low in the aviation sector as travel restrictions were still in place. So, where do we go from here? Last year, the UK government published its net zero strategy, a fairly comprehensive document outlining illustrative scenarios of how the UK economy could look in 2050 with net zero emissions. With a more detailed emissions pathway up to 2037, which is the end of the sixth carbon budget period. Going forward, the rate of emissions reduction needs to speed up with a reduction of more than 70% on pre-pandemic levels required by 2037. So, emissions reduction needs to speed up and it needs to start happening in a wider range of sectors. Most of the progress so far has been in the electricity supply sector, largely because of the phase out of coal and the ramping up of renewables. But this is the behind the scenes sector, where change can happen largely without affecting people's lives. Today, the largest emitting sectors are surface transport, mostly cars and buildings, mostly heating our homes with significant contributions from other sectors across the economy. The government's ambition for sectorial emissions reduction is backed by ambitious targets outlined in the net zero strategy. These are pretty much aligned with the CCC's advice. This includes a full illo carbon electricity supply by 2035, the end of sales of conventional fossil-fuelled cars and vans by 2030, at least 600,000 heat pump installations per year by 2028, 5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year removed from the atmosphere using engineered techniques by 2030 and 30,000 hectares per year of a new tree planting by 2025. There's a lot to do. Let's compare the government's pathway with the CCC's recommendations. The balance of emissions reductions needed across sectors generally agree well. This snapshot comparing the government's pathway with the CCC pathway in 2035 shows that the government expects higher emissions in the fuel supply sector, which is due to relatively unambitious emissions savings in the production of North Sea oil and gas. This is balanced by lower emissions in buildings, but the UK's leaky buildings are particularly difficult to decarbonise and the government has made some risky choices here. It's relying on a market-based approach to drive down the cost of electric heat pumps in order to increase installations by more than a factor of 10 in the next six years. Plans for tackling home energy efficiency are really lacking. This is particularly short-sighted given current spiralling fuel prices. In fact, across the economy, the government has made a choice to rely heavily on innovation and technology, for example in engineered greenhouse gas removals and low-carbon aviation and agriculture. There are very limited plans for improving efficiency and reducing demand. There are no plans to tackle growing demand for flights, limited detail on targets for reducing car usage and no plans to encourage a shift to low-carbon and healthy diets. All of this goes against the CCC's recommendations. We believe this is a risky choice and one that misses the opportunity to maximise the many co-benefits to people's lives, such as more comfortable homes, less air pollution, more active lifestyles and healthier diets. Government should be making contingency plans now to reduce this risk. Nonetheless, this is the choice the government has made and so we monitor progress against its own policies and plans. In our 2021 progress report, we assessed the government's plans for the required emissions reduction with respect to business as usual for the following 15 years. Only a small proportion, the green bit of the chart, was covered by credible plans. The majority, the orange bit carrying significant associated risk and as you can see, there's a fair amount in red with completely insufficient plans. With the publication of the net zero strategy, things have improved considerably this year. There's a much higher proportion of green and the proportion with significant risk or insufficient plans has halved. But there is still a long way to go before we can have confidence in delivery. When we present this in terms of what is needed to meet the UK's near and medium term targets shown here as purple lines, we see that the risk increases with time. If delivered in full, the pathways published by the government would slightly outperform all the targets up to the sixth carbon budget in the mid 2030s. However, when assessing the emissions reduction needed to meet the sixth carbon budget, though there is a large chunk with credible plans around a quarter has some associated risks, around a third has significant associated risk and 5% of the emissions reduction required has completely insufficient plans which is essentially a policy gap. When we break this down by sector in 2035, we see that almost all the credible plans are in the surface transport and electricity supply sectors. As I showed earlier, we've already seen good progress in electricity supply emissions. So it's encouraging to see significant progress in another sector, transport, which more directly affects people's lives. On the other hand, there are significant risks associated with almost all other sectors. We're particularly worried about improving poor energy efficiency of homes and lack of any detailed plans for agriculture and land use. Nonetheless, this is the first year we have a full overarching strategy from the government to assess. Our focus is shifting to tracking more than 300 indicators of progress going well beyond just looking at emissions reduction. This helps to identify areas of success and areas where progress is insufficient and more action is needed. Increasingly, this is where we think we need to focus, assessing the changes happening on the ground so we can say whether we really are on track to net zero. Here's a snapshot of some priority indicators. There's a lot of white, meaning it's too early to say if sufficient progress is being made. That is appropriate given the net zero strategy only came out last year and we expect the colours to fill in in the coming years. More of a problem is the grey, where there is currently insufficient information to judge progress. We hope these will also be coloured in in the coming years and preferably with green. Of those where we have been able to judge, there are some really encouraging signs of progress, most notably in the rate of electric vehicle sales. Both the government and the CCC have ambitious milestones for the ramp-up of electric car sales in the next 15 years. And we can see that actual sales have recently started to surpass this. Earlier indications of the available models and public attitudes are also looking good. Costs have come down and the market is really starting to take off. Deployment of renewable electricity is also progressing really well, backed by a strong pipeline of future projects. Meat consumption is decreasing at an encouraging rate, but this is not due to any specific policy choices. Government should act now to capitalise on the public's momentum here to ensure things stay on track. Beyond this, we are already seeing areas of serious concern. Our indicators for new tree planting and for woodland and peatland restoration are significantly off track, as are home efficiency improvements. This chart shows historical data for different types of home insulation, which was doing okay up to 2012, but has since decreased as the government started to scale down schemes to support action in this area. Rates are now really low and well below where they need to be. We need to see a significant ramp-up in the next five years. Urgent action is required and current spiralling fuel prices makes us even more time-critical. Unfortunately, improving home energy efficiency is one of the gaps that I referred to earlier. Government needs to get its act together here. So, what next? We have over 300 recommendations for the various UK government departments setting out what needs to happen now. 37 of these are priority recommendations summarised here. The recommendations include the development of contingency plans in case delivery slips. Government should also set out who is responsible for each part of the transition and value the role of local initiatives. We want to see detailed sectorial plans where these are lacking, most notably for agriculture and land use, as well as a strategy for effective public engagement, which would include a comprehensive public energy advice service. There are plenty of other things too that will help to smooth the journey to net zero and ensure the UK is ready to face the impacts of a changing climate. Overall, we have seen some areas of good progress in the past year, but we are concerned about the risky approach the government has chosen. If our recommendations are acted on in the next year, we expect to see much of this risk reduced and plenty of green throughout our charts and indicators in 2023.