 Welcome to the Tick Mill Weekly Market Outlook for a week commencing the 27th of June with me, Patrick Mundey. We start the week with the focus shifting to the ECB Forum being held in Cintra, Portugal. Runs from Monday through to the 29th of June. Focus is really going to be on any discussions of the new anti-fragmentation tool and particularly the market will be looking forward to Lagarde's speech on Tuesday at 7am GMT, 9am Central European Time. And on Wednesday we get a panel discussion with the Bank of England's Bailey, Bank of International Settlements' Carstens and Feds Powell will join Lagarde for a policy panel. In terms of data in the US next week, we are looking for Mundey's May Durable Goods Orders, looking for a 0.1% print there, supply issues are an ongoing headwind. Then we move to May Penling Home Sales, looking for a negative 3.5% print. Demand is calling amid the higher rate environment. We also get the June Dallas Fed Index, manufacturer is concerned with elevated cost pressures there so looking for a weak print. Then we move to Tuesday, May Wholesale Inventories. Inventory levels vary considerably across the economy at the moment. Then we get the April FHA house prices. Price momentum is expected to show some slowing as rates begin to take effect. We then get June Consumer Confidence Index, looking for a pullback there and 100 print. Inflation worries offsetting the labour market strength. We also get June Richmond Fed Index, labour and material shortages are a key concern there so looking for a weaker print. And then moving into Wednesday, we're going to get Q1 GDP, the final print there, looking for a negative 1.4% print. Small upper revision expected in the final estimates. We also then have Fed Chair Powell speaking at the UCB Forum on Wednesday. Nesta and Bullard will also be speaking. Heading into Thursday, we're looking at May Personal Income in the US, looking for a 0.5% print there, purchasing power is an ongoing concern as households run down their savings. We also get personal spending, looking for a 0.4% print there. Then we get the May PCE deflator, looking for a positive 0.7% print there. PCE inflation looks to have crested price pressures to slowly abate throughout the remainder of 2022. We also get initial jobless claims, obviously looking for a low print there, last time out 229,000. Then we get June, Chicago PMI looking for a 58.8% there, lower than the last print of 60.3% concerns around supply issues, obviously remain the focus. Then we round out the week in the US with global manufacturing PMIs, final estimate for the month looking 52.4%. May construction spending, 0.5% print there, activity supported by home building strength. We round out the week in the US with the ISM manufacturing, looking for a 55.4%. The bus momentum is still up in manufacturing. Then moving to the charts in terms of the dollar index here on the weekly scale. We're tracking this five-wave sequence. We're ultimately looking for a move up to test above 106 with the yearly R3, 106.37. Got some nice momentum divergence developing here. So on the daily timeframe, I'm looking for us to trade in an ending wage pattern here. So whilst we hold the projected support, 103.40s, we can have final push-up into 106.30s to 106.50s. From there, I'm going to be watching the bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side, initially tugging the move back down below 104. Moving to the Eurozone, and in terms of data, obviously, we have that ECB annual forum commencing on Monday. On Wednesday, we get June economic confidence. Russia, Ukraine still clouding out that their elevated prices are the chief concern for households in terms of consumer and economic confidence, which will be released on Wednesday. Thursday, we get May unemployment in the Eurozone, looking for a 6.7-cent print there, tight labor market laying the foundation for potential wage growth in the Eurozone. And then we round out the week with the global manufacturing PMI, final estimate for the month, looking 52 there. We also get June's CPI, looking for an 8.3-cent there. Price pressures are intensifying and broadening in the Eurozone. So from a technical perspective, the Eurodollar, we were looking for tests of this 106.20, the descending trendline resistance and the monthly pivot there. Didn't get it, we had a consolidation, another inside week for the Eurozone, so we are consolidating. Really remains the same in terms of the technical perspective here. Whilst we hold below that trendline and the pivots at the 106.20s, 106.30s, the pressure will build on the downside, looking for a break of the prior cycle lows through 103.50. The next downside objective is 102.40. At this stage, it will take a close through the pivot on the daily timeframe to suggest this double bottom it will hold, and then we'd be targeting and move up into range resistance 107.80s, and then if we get through there, up into the trend channel resistance 109.19. Moving to the UK, in terms of data, our focus moves to the back end of the week. Thursday, UK Q1 GDP, final print, looking for a 0.8-cent Q1 gains to be followed by an abrupt slowing in the UK. We also get June nationwide house prices, demand softening as rate hikes take effect. And then we round up the data in the UK on Friday, where we get the manufacturing PMIs, final estimate for the market, looking for 53.4, and main net mortgage lending, 4.1 billion last time, rising rates of slow economy has likely start weighing on lending in the UK. So from a technical perspective, sterling dollar, we've got that really nice reversal from our target zone of 120, down that nearly S3, 1.19.50s. Haven't really seen any meaningful follow-through. We consolidated last week inside the upper range of that weekly rejection candle. So last week, if we can continue to hold support at the 1.21.50s, we'll look for further consolidation and an ultimate break through the trend channel resistance here. And then move up into the high-volume nodes, 1.25.20s. However, if we lose that 1.21.50 on a closing basis, that'll be a bearish development. And we look for a retest of the prior cycle lows, and move down to test into or below 1.18 as the next downside objective. Moving to Japan. Pretty light on the data calendar early in the week. We look to Thursday, where we get main industrial production, looking for a negative 0.3% print there, still working through major supply issues in the economy. And then we finish the week on Friday with the second quarter tank and large manufacturing index. Last time, printed 14, looking for a 13, as business conditions are mixed, giving on the supply issues. And we finish up with the June-Nikai manufacturing PMI, 52.7 final print for the month. From a technical perspective, we are looking for the dollar yen to test into the projected wedge resistance here, 1.37.50s. From there, we watch for bearish momentum to be maintained, but for bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side to take out the wedge support here through the 1.33.19s. And we look for a move initially back to 1.31.30. At this stage, any close back through the support here at 1.33... Sorry, 1.33.60s, 1.33.50s would engage gain on the short side, targeting similarly that 1.31.30s as the first objective on the downside. Rounding things out down under in Australia, we are looking at data, starting really on Wednesday with May retail sales, 0.3% print there, lots of momentum in part, a rotation away from retail. And then we move to Thursday with May private sector credit, looking for a 0.6% print there. It's set to slow as rates rise and following an oversize rise in the April print, we get Q2 job vacancies. Job vacancies are plenty, limited labour supply, as is the situation globally at the moment. And then we round out the week down under with June core logic home value index, looking for a negative 0.7% print there, last time at negative 0.3%. Down turn is underway as the RBA begins a tightening cycle in May. From a technical perspective, the Aussie dollar is sitting right up the pivotal support here, 6860s, a nice reversal on Friday, but held the pivot. If we can get through there, I would anticipate we get a move up into test range resistance, 7070 area, as long as we hold there and get rejected. Ultimately, we're looking for a move down to test the 6640s, which is the quality objective on the weekly scale here. Any move that sees a close early in the week through that 6840s, I want to be on the short side, targeting for a test of that 6640s. And then from there, we'll see we can get a bullish reversal pattern to develop. And I would be looking to reverse short positions, taking aim at the high volume nodes at just below the 72 handle. As always, trainers, plan the trade, trade the plan, and most importantly, manage your risk. Until next week, thanks very much.