 What's up navigation traders welcome to this week's video update today's Friday, January 31st We're gonna review all of our trade alerts all of our positions Exclusively for pro members before we do. Let's check out the community and talk about who got caught being hot This week goes to our friend Tim Weiss Tim's a pretty experienced trader. I've had a had the pleasure of Commersating with Tim about his experience and as I mentioned here in the post kind of surprising we had never recognized him for his contributions to the community but Finally got you in here Tim So thanks for all of your engagement all of your comments and suggestions and trade ideas and answer another questions Congrats Tim. You got caught being hot If we go to the alerts Kind of a wild ride actually, let's go to the platform first looking at the S&P 500 I mean we we gapped down First we had that big down day last Friday, and then we gapped down on Monday with the coronavirus scare and then Tuesday we ripped higher and then we dip back down on Thursday, but but by the end of the day we had ripped higher Specifically at the end of the day on the news of the Amazon earnings announcement and then today things just fell apart S&P's down over 62 Dow down 563 Nasdaq down over 200 in the Russell down 30. So Big move now Going forward my thoughts going forward. I mean I just I don't think that we just rebound and rip higher from here I think I think that we're gonna see some significant more downside maybe break under these these lows here kind of that 3075 level now how quickly does that happen? I don't know do we does that actually even happen? Of course, nobody knows But that's my thoughts. I mean, I think we probably If we don't just you know sink lower pretty quick I think I think we look at kind of a little bit Kind of a consolidation or maybe a little bit of an up move and then we continue to roll over. So that's my thoughts and And we'll see what happens. Let's jump into the alerts and I'll get a little bit more detail and specific about some of the other positions Starting with didn't opening trade and SPX put on a new iron duck with 14 days. We did that on Monday So if we take a look at SPX, we've got two ducks in here Took one off earlier this week booked a beak profit Here's this one that expires on the last day of trading is the 10th expiration is on the 11th Price is hanging out right here just inside the beak and Then the other one is in our duck head. It's so if this one kind of stays steady for us We got a potential for a duck head. Obviously if it continues lower, we're gonna need to bail on that one But we'll see what happens Potential 610 max profit on that one and then those expire on the 6th. So into next week Next trade opening trade in XBI So just dipping in dipping our toe in selling some premium and some of these underlines that we haven't seen High implied high implied volatility and for quite a while. This one being XBI. So if we take a look at XBI What you will see here is Price is still pretty dead centered You know, we got to move up and then back down so we're pretty centered got a little bit of profit Just waiting for some more theta 2 to K and XBI XBI Next trade rolling adjusting trade in DE so we went ahead and rolled this one out from Feb out to March We were in a position where we were over 50% of max profit And so we went ahead and just roll this out to extend duration keep that short delta in our portfolio and Look for potentially some more downside So if we look at DE you can see it's down about a percent and a half today We've gained another hundred and thirty seven ish hundred and thirty nine bucks since the roll So just again holding this for some more short delta exposure And speaking of our short delta were after the move down today We're only at about one to one on our short delta versus our theta. So Of course, we put on the the bunker trade as well But we need a you know, we'll need a huge move in there and I'll talk about that here in a second Next trade opening trade In Apple so we put on an earnings iron duck in Apple at that point I had three days to expiration and I'm gonna go ahead and jump ahead to that closing trade Just to just to tie that one together. So right here the very next day on the 29th We closed that out and booked a beak profit on that on that quick earnings trade Next trade was a an opening trade in Delta airlines now we don't do this very often. We don't just buy puts but Just kind of I wanted to add a little bit more short delta with the whole coronavirus scare You know, I figured airlines would would be one of the things that get gets hit the worst What's interesting about this is if we look at Delta now DAL You know, the market's down 2% right the S&P but Delta Airlines is only down a little over 2% So I would have thought That that Delta would have been down a way much more than the market But in this case, you know, we're still in a profitable situation up about 286 bucks We're gonna hold this see if we can get some more downside action in it The other thing is Delta came out today and announced that they were canceling all flights All Chinese flights and so again, I thought this would be down a little bit more But it is, you know still down a decent amount But I figured it would have would dropped even more on that news and in comparison with the rest of the markets, but Anyway, that's where we're at in Delta Next trade opening trade in Vic. So this is where we you know, we released our new strategy Vicks bunker or the portfolio bunker trade in this case in Vic So we put this on with 139 days to expiration and We will exit when we get down to about 60 days to expiration. So if you haven't seen the bunker class Make sure you do so. Otherwise, this won't really make sense But and we got a couple of questions because obviously with the S&P's down 60 The Vicks was up about 20 ish percent. Let me see where it closed at Let's see, where's my Vicks? Vicks yeah up 21% So if we look at that from where we put it on, I mean Yeah, I mean in in kind of a short-term nature position I mean that that's that's a little bit of a spike But that's that's not what we're talking about and that's and we're not gonna see a bunch of profits In fact, let's go to like more like a One-year chart you can see that's nothing. I mean, we're still only at 18 on the Vicks I mean, that's not a spike when we talk about spike where this where this bunker can really kick in We're talking about major spikes, you know up up here, you know, based on from where we put it on So if we take a look at the trade We did a five contract trades as you can see prices hanging out right here So we really need to get out here, you know 25 26 27 to it for to really start kicking in and remember in the class We talked about we compared it to iron condors We compared it to using the Vicks as a hedge against short strangles and iron ducks And remember when you put those on especially right now I mean you're gonna have a big buffer to the downside And so what the Vicks bunker is here to do is to really kick in beyond that downside buffer that you have in those positions and So and I mentioned this I think it might have been in the Q&A part of the class But somebody asked about how does this? How does this affect the amount of short Delta that we keep in our portfolio? And the answer is we still keep short Delta positions, right? We still need some of those short call verticals long puts, you know those different downside Pieces to give us kind of that short-term benefit of a move like this because this is really for that big move that big spike in Vicks That big downdraft in the market You know not just a little blip like we saw today You're not gonna see a bunch of profit in these in that case. We need a we need a pretty big move For this to for this to kick in so it doesn't replace our short Delta. It just gives us more of that tail tail protection in the case of a major move Next trade closing trade in Tesla. So we closed out our reverse iron duck in Tesla they announced earnings and price was kind of sitting in our duckhead and so we didn't want to In that position, we didn't want to hold that through earnings because we were we were already into the duckhead So we just went ahead and close that out and then the next trade here is we put a new one on so we basically just took One off reposition this thing And had it started with the price in that beak area like we like to start Now what happened in Tesla? Well Tesla had a big move higher remember. This was a reverse iron duck TSLA and So, you know price moved well Outside the expected move at this jump here now the overnight. Let's look at the interday because that really tells the story, right? You know so here's here's overnight and by the time the markets opened it was all the way back down into the duckhead You know, so that's why you've got to let these things play out I got a lot of emails a lot of posts in the community is like oh, we're dead You know this thing's blowing through our break even we're gonna lose all this money You know first of all if if you're that nervous Then that risk is too big for your account, right? So if I mean we only did one contract and so, you know, it's not like you could get any smaller on this trade but if if you are losing sleep and Nervous about, you know a trade going against you you've got to think about that before you put the trade on Okay, if the trade goes against us, we are going to stay mechanical. That's what the mechanics are in place for But in this case It it it dropped that back down into our range and it popped up a little bit We ended up we ended up just getting out of this for about 50% of max profit booked about 330 bucks on the trade but you know You got it you got to stay mechanical and you've got a position size correctly I can't stress that enough if it's freaking you out Then that means it's just too big for you Next trade closing trade SPX so we had an iron one of our we had a third iron duck in SPX those options just expired booked a big profit of 125 on that trade Then we had an opening trade in SMH. So implied volatilities spiked up in SMH You can see at this point now it's at 85 So it's spiked even more than it was when we put this on And it's moved down slightly. So prices hanging out right here still well within our range Just waiting for some time to pass in that one We did an opening trade in Amazon So we did a an earnings iron duck in Amazon and then we woke up this morning or actually after the market closed last night And an Amazon exploded. So let's take a look again at the overnight of Amazon Is that really Tell some of the story you can see on the daily chart the big gap up and then it kind of Faded back down during the day, but if we look at the intraday, you know, here's here's the big spike And it got it all the way up to 21 33 I mean that's a pretty massive move especially for a stock that size they just blew away the earnings estimates and then it and then it continued to fade into the close today, so But we had that no risk to the upside. So that was good and we booked a We booked this profit. So by the time you're watching this, this will be gone But basically we booked 182 bucks. I just cleaned out that big profit. So just letting that expire Next trade Was a closing adjusting trade in natty gas So so this one was a little bit different than we normally do because I I was I was I was considering rolling this one out But we started looking at the strikes and kind of evaluating the strikes in natty gas when you click on that gas And go to the trade tab to kind of show you what I mean And let's go to the continuous contract. So we get all the expirations so we're gonna roll this out to the I think it was 55 day 55 day cycle and We're the a this the three put that we had is getting really deep in the money, you know And so and these and these deltas at this point just aren't aren't really correct. And so Basically the bottom line was the we weren't really gonna get a credit to roll this thing And so we went ahead and just closed this one out. You can see, you know, even now I mean the markets closed but I mean look at these these deltas are just a little bit goofy, you know It goes from from 30 to 40 to 50 65 all the way up to 112 that that's just you know That's just a little bit goofy and the end of the liquidity in them was wasn't as good So we just went ahead and closed that one out now We still have our other short strangle, which we will probably adjust next week It's hanging out right here on the break even is where prices and so we will probably Unless we get a big bounce higher We will probably roll these calls down to about the 30 delta and we will roll this out to the next expiration And continue to manage now if implied volatility pops its head back up again in UNG When we did this it was about 49 on the IV percentile now it's a 54 so Somewhere around here if it's somewhere around here What we will potentially re-enter and add back into this So we'll have two sets of short strangles and just trying to work our way back to profits Overall in that gas so that's the plan there in the existing one We'll roll down the calls and roll out to the next cycle and then maybe even potentially add a new centered short strangle So that's the plan in Natty Next trade rolling adjusting trade in ZB. So we had that Adjusted strangles just into a into a 161 straddle got down to 21 days to expiration So we rolled out to the cycle with 56 kept the strikes the same I did have a question on this in the community So I just let me kind of readdress that real quick as well. The question was why did we stay with that? 161 strike and here's the reason remember if price moves out of our range and There's very little value left in the untested side, which if it moved up though it'd be the put side, right? And so if you If that's the case we are going to roll the puts up If it moves if price were to move down Then we're going to roll the calls down and continue to collect that credit in this case You know our strikes at 161 price when we rolled this was closer to 162 And so if you look at the if you look at the strikes here You know at the point now it's at the 35 delta, but at that point we wrote it was at the 38 So remember we're typically going to roll up or down to about the 30 delta Well, we don't want to we don't want to roll backwards You know it would be you know in this case where if we're down here like the three delta We would roll up to the about the 30 delta Well, we're already at the 35 and so for that for that reason. That's why we just Kept the 161 we don't want to we don't want to roll down Because we're then we're going to collect less credit it we may not get a credit a net credit on the overall roll So that's that's the reason for positioning it around that 161 and just keeping it there. So hopefully that makes sense Next trade was a closing trade in Tesla. So that was our earnings reverse iron duck that we closed out this afternoon And this was one where you know, sometimes we'll hold this closer to expiration I actually had meetings this afternoon. So I wasn't able to To monitor it as closely as I wanted so we actually closed this one out a little bit early And it actually was a benefit because if we look at Tesla Go to the charts and Check out the intraday move you can see, you know Here's here's kind of where we took it off somewhere around in In this area here and it did, you know rip higher the next the rest of the day So we actually would have given away that profit that we ended up booking. So No skill there. Not that I knew it was gonna go up or anything like that But we got we got lucky and we're able to book a decent little profit on that one Next trade was a closing trade in Amazon and by the way, let me let me read just Tesla a little bit When you get down to a situation where you're in the last day of trading And and very small the gamma is very high, right this a small market movement can either Benefit you or take away your profits I want I want you trade hackers to really take ownership and and use your own discretion on where to exit those now I posted it in the community this morning and said, you know, will be closing today Please use your own discretion then right before I closed it out I posted again in the community saying hey, you know, here's a situation I'm gonna go ahead and book this pretty quick because I can't watch it for the last couple hours of the market and So and I said again, please use your discretion on when you want to close and I and you've got to do that because There's no magic. I don't know what the market's gonna do Nobody knows what the market's gonna do and so, you know, anytime you anytime we get to a point where we have You know, we're in a very kind of the last day of trading and and a small market movement can either make or break That trade you've got to use your discretion. Don't don't wait for the alert. That's not what this is about This is about making decisions, you know, 90% of what we do is very mechanical But there's that 10% that is subjective that you've got to take an assumption that you've got to take ownership on and that That's one of those situations. So hopefully everybody did well in that one and Then lastly closing trade in Amazon I mentioned we just we just let those options expire and booked big profit there So let's go to the other positions and see what we've got going on Starting with oil now the markets are closed here, but this is well within range We're down a little bit not as much as it's showing here showing we're down about 800 bucks. That's not correct These options are closed But still well within range, but implied volatility is spiking so that kind of pushed our P&L lying down and So just waiting for some time to pass in oil We've got this long put vertical in ES that we've been holding for short Delta prices hanging out right inside the range after that Big down move today. So just holding this for some more short Delta exposure in gold We've still got these two different pieces here. We've got the short call vertical again markets are closed So this is gonna look a little bit goofy on the analyze tab, but Just need a little bit of downside in gold to get back into range We've got a lot of time here still 25 days to expiration on that and you know, we'll hold this all the way potentially to expiration week Because it's defined risk. We can't get assigned on futures So we're just gonna we're just gonna hold on to that and then we've got another piece Which is a full iron condor and we click on that and that's right here So yeah, just we could use a slight down move but pretty pretty well in range here And once we get to about you know, 30 40% of max profit will look to to book Book profits in here again with the markets closed where we don't have that much profit in this trade yet It's a little bit lower than that but we will look to potentially book profits next week If if we get the IV contraction that would help that I mentioned Natty gas Mentioned ZB wheat. So we've got this iron condor and wheat prices hanging out right here Just waiting playing the waiting game and wheat Apple finally got a little down move. How about them apples down a little over 4%? Still not back into range on this one because it was so far out, but if we take a look at a chart of Apple Biggest significant down move that we've seen in quite some time. So that's that's good for the that's good for the trade there Amazon I mentioned Delta Airlines. I mentioned John Deere. I mentioned DIA We've got these still got these two sets of short call verticals in DIA One of which is in Fed. You can see prices hanging out right here inside the range And then the other is right here out in March and we've got some, you know some profit since that role Just holding that again for some more short Delta FXI we put on this short strangle And prices moved lower since then. This is the Chinese large cap prices hanging out right here I looked at potentially adding another Centered strangle around this thing, but figured I'd wait till Monday, you know, if we get some additional follow-through I don't want to add too early So we might potentially add to this one in FXI we look at the chart Obviously implied volatility super high in there And so we'll see what happens in FXI obviously if it bounces higher We'll just continue to keep this trade that we have on if it continues lower. We may look to add to it IWM So this one I was looking at towards the end of the day of potentially Rolling because we are over 50% of max profit, but again, I just figured I'd give it a little bit more time Give it over the weekend if we get a little bit of follow-through then we'll do it on Monday Or even if we bounce higher a little bit, we might potentially just roll this out This one is in Feb, so we just roll this out to March Squeeze up our strikes a little bit collect that credit and continue to keep that short Delta in our portfolio Netflix we've got this reverse duck on and so prices hanging out right here just inside the duck head hopefully prices can stay somewhat stable and Just kind of in this range and look to book a duck head later this later next week in Netflix QQQ we've got similar to DIA. We've got these two sets of short call verticals prices hanging out right here in our Feb One and then the one in March Prices even deeper, so we've got a little bit of profit on that one. I Mention SMH SPX I mentioned SPY We've got this short call vertical here prices just inside range there So just holding that for some more short Delta. I mentioned the VIX Mention XBI and then lastly XLK This long put vertical again a short Delta play price outside the range still just waiting You know for some potentially some more downside to benefit that So that is all the alerts. Those are all the positions. Everybody. Have a great weekend. We'll talk to you next week