 This is covering the spread part of the fandom podcast network After how good the semi-finals were in college football We were due for a clunker last night and we got exactly that 65 to 7 the final score I turned it off before halftime, which I feel like was a good decision on my part So we're gonna turn the page forward and talk about something else literally anything else for today We're talking about some NBA and some PGA been bringing on Brandon Back on the show to talk about both those things We're having a more of an NBA focus as we get into the NFL postseason We talk about NBA at least twice a week throughout the postseason and then hopefully more after that as well I'll talk to Brandon Tom Vecchio beyond tomorrow talk about NBA as well And also talk some golf Brandon happy Tuesday to you. How you doing? Oh? Yeah, I'm good. I was talking to you making a joke I About that national championship game. I think I was trying to find our slack messages I think I said it was gonna be like 28 three at halftime. Yeah, you were off You under sold George and you should be ashamed of yourself. Yeah, I mean, I tried but you know, hey, it is what it is The second that Stetson doesn't have like that like 20-yard touchdown is like, oh, no Yeah, it's not gonna be fun. But hey, you know either way Congrats to Georgia Congrats TCU for making it there like obviously it's not the way you wanted to go But great season by them happy for our friend of the show Parker for a stats of war on Twitter for I think having a great year having a lot of fun Hopefully watching all that but we're gonna break down What Brandon sees across the NBA for tonight break down that talk about his NBA process and more to get you said For today's slate of NBA But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You can find us on Apple podcast spotify stitcher Google podcasts, etc. Etc. You can find us there by searching for covering the spread Hit subscribe anything like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well All we also have our wild card first look posted. I broke down what my numbers say about wild card weekend Spots from scenes of value. There is a money line spread in the total in there and then one more spread I will likely lock in later on this week that is up on the covering the spread podcast feed and Over on the Fandall YouTube page looking to get more out of the NFL this season Well, now is the perfect time to download Fandall America's number one sportsbook because new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 that's free bets back if your first bet doesn't win Just download the Fandall sportsbook app It is safe secure and super easy to use then you can bet on everything from the money line to touchdown scores to over under Yars plus Fandall even lets you combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with a same game parlay So don't miss out on your chance to get a no sweat first bet up to one a thousand dollars in free bets When you join Fandall make every moment more with Fandall an official sports betting partner of the NFL Must be 21 plus and president select states first online real money wager only Refund issued is not with trouble free bets that expired 14 days Restrictions apply see terms that sportsbook. Fandall calm gambling problem call 1-800 gambler over the Fandall comm slash RG in Arizona 1-800 XF or text next step to 5334 to in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 Or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1-800 9 with it and Kansas and Wyoming 1-800 5 to 2 4700 and in Kansas KS gambling health comm in Louisiana 1-8777 770 stop in Maryland MD gambling health org in New York 1-8778 open wire text open Y or in West Virginia 1-800 gambler dot net Let's dig into the NBA for tonight before we do that though Brandon this is the first time we've had you on to talk about the NBA on this show So I wanted to dig in primarily to your process and let people know What steps do you go through before filling out a bet slip for the NBA? So what does your individual process look like for betting NBA? Yeah, so the like the crux of how I project out games Look like the sort of bones or like the nuts and bolts not that surprising I'm just inputting offensive and defensive ratings or points per 100 possessions for and against for a team Into a matchup and then tweaking those with adjustments Based on things like you know, home court advantage rest stuff like that So basically you take a team's efficiency stats compare them to their opponents And then it should tell you what the final score should be I do this all just in spreadsheet I'm sure there's a lot of software that people a lot smarter than me could use but For me a spreadsheet does the trick So, you know, that's pretty straightforward But as with most models it really comes down to a few things one Which inputs do you use? That's really step one. That's kind of a long one. Lots can go into it Do you use a team's full season stats for NBA? Do you look at the past five games 10 games? How are you adjusting for opponents faced? There's Obviously no single answer or else there would just be one one NBA model that existed And obviously, we know that that's not the case, but these are the types of questions that you need to answer for me What I would assume I do differently than most is I don't really look at any sort of like Five game 10 game splits anymore. I just let injuries do the heavy lifting Taking a page out of your playbook in terms of finding relevant samples across all sports You know, it's super important to be looking at injuries because in the NBA Obviously you have five players in the floor at all times taking one player out of that rotation 20% of the lineup obviously some players are worth even more than that 20% and so like You know, you can't just be taking These static samples or full season numbers. Obviously, you know That can be tricky to figure out where I go to help with that is pbpstats.com It has a wowie tool, which is with or without you That's what that stands for. I'm gonna let you look up team splits for both when players were in the game or not So basically whether they were active or not, you know binary or whether they were on the floor or not now you don't look at like Even like even within this it's tricky because like you can't just look at on-off splits And that's traditionally what's mostly available because players aren't playing 48 minutes a night So you can't just look at a team, you know, the Portland Trailblazers with Damian Lillard on the floor for 48 minutes. That's not gonna get your you know in the right ballpark either. So This is like a subjective like there's a subjectivity angle to this for which splits I use and It can vary team to team Based on how large a split is sometimes you want to look at it, you know a situation where someone's out But there's only been one or two games where a player has actually been out So then you try to figure out, you know, what do I do with him in terms of whether he was on the floor off the floor? everything like that and I mean Like I feel like I laid out the fact that like the nuts and bolts of this pretty simple But then you have to figure out who is worthy of looking like is the eighth man the sixth man in a rotation Someone who's not that relevant that player is out. Does that make sense to shorten a sample to look at that? Maybe sometimes not sometimes and this is the part that is all and in having talked to you About your NFL model I know that there's a lot of you know tweaks that you make that other people might not make on how you value things So it's really, you know, it's a simple thing But then you have to figure out how to put the data in there that you trust and then from there You know, you have to answer the question of like, okay, you figure out I think this team's gonna have a 115 offensive rating. I think that's a relevant offensive rating They're playing a team with a 105 defensive rating. How do you get there? Like what do you would how do you project their? Expected offensive rating is it? Averaging is it scaling to a league average? Whatever? Personally, I do the league average thing. I think that works better for me How do you scale for travel rest all that stuff? So, I mean, and that probably sounds like a bit much but honestly An NBA model is a lot easier than a golf model and I started with the golf model So it feels a bit simple and you know for anyone who's interested in doing any of this any of this work Maybe I made it sound a little bit too complicated with like the the inner-out stuff But you can find how to like build a basic model on YouTube and then from there It's just up to you to input what you think the numbers you're gonna look like for that given night So yeah, I think that's a that's about my process. I'm digging through injury reports And then putting the numbers I think make the most sense for a particular matchup for that night I think the key point you made there was looking at The on-off stats based on whether the player was active because that is a big difference than on-off splits Like you were saying and I think that that's kind of worth digging into a bit more when you go to PvP stats comm Is there defaults where it's based on if the player is active or is that a true on-off split? Or how do you if people want to duplicate your process just rip off your stuff? Basically? How do they hypothetically for me? How do they get it to where it is based on when that player is active? So I have a lot of stuff bookmarked. I basically have because I'm doing this every day for every team And if you go to PvP stats comm big shout out to them This is a free resource that I'm at right now and I have no no paid account at all. It's great So I believe it's under on-off at the top of the page and then to Wowie It gives you basically a blank slate to go through and you can fill out the team That you're looking for whether it's regular season. How many starters are on the floor? You know what quarter it is the leverage tool. I do use I factor out low level low leverage possessions I should have mentioned that But then from there you just input, you know your player filters, you know Is Joe L&B'd he's you know questionable for tonight's slate Put him in you know after you select the Sixers Do you want him do you want to see you know action with him playing in the game? Not playing in the game on off all that kind of stuff. You can combine that and then You know you just click get team stats For me I changed to 100 possessions instead of totals that I can see the net ratings easily and then you have some good data There that you can look at and while we're given some some love to this site They have a thing called shot quality if you scroll over once you actually get some stats uploaded Shot quality is basically an expected effective field goal percentage You can look at that number and see you know for teams at a point five one in terms of expected shot quality But they have a you know point five five actual effective field goal percentage They're either overperforming or maybe they're just a good team That's a question you can ask and maybe scale back or scale up manually, but there's a lot you can do And again to simplify everything Building in it like the boat the structure of an enemy model is super easy But as we all know it's about the inputs that you that you determine are the most impactful now One other thing I wanted to dig into you quickly is with the trade deadline a month away And the all-star break a little more than the month away We're gonna see some guys missing time who we're gonna see a lot of guys missing time But like maybe players have missed a lot of time so far so you mentioned Deciding how to weigh a small sample active versus inactive split versus the on-off splits when you have a smaller sample like that Is it like a are you doing that kind of just based on you know guts? Based on what you think that player is worth. Are you kind of utilizing that as kind of a crutch? Manually deciding where to put things or how do you handle those small samples because we'll see a lot of them in the very near future So early in the season The the research I've come across says that a line-up sample Will sort of stabilize around 500 possessions, which I think sort of makes sense. It's roughly five games worth of data So I regressed things out toward a league average if a sample is below 500 possessions and typically That happens earlier in the year one great thing about the NBA is that it's Very predictable once you know what it like who's in who's out that kind of stuff. It's pretty predictable But at this point in the season most samples I'm looking at do you have at least 500 possessions? So I don't worry too much But if I see a small sample or I see something weird like for example, I mentioned Joe Allen bead You know, he's questionable. They actually have better splits in games With and bead out but James Harden and Tyrese maxi active then with all three active in terms of net rating and like That seems wrong long-term and you don't just want to plug that in blindly and say well They're they're kind of a bad team with those three active. It's not really the case Right, so there's just that amount of like, you know, I think you said the gut feel there is a big part of that Yeah, for me for sure I mean some of the NFL like I'm not gonna upgrade the 49ers or downgrade them if Jimmy Garoppolo comes back I'm just because Brock Purdy played well like logically you would think Garoppolo would be an upgrade still So I think that there is always going to be an element of trusting your gut with that stuff Now let's spin this forward and talk about tonight We do have a couple of nationally televised games tonight We got the thunder at the heat and the Suns at the Warriors on tonight's slate both those games sporting One of them I guess sporting a pretty lofty spread with the Suns and the Warriors What are you seeing with those two games specifically in case one of people want to bet them as they're watching them for tonight? Yes, I feel like this is a great practical Explanation of what I go through because these games are pretty littered with Injury reports any game with the heat is has a pretty lengthy injury report But on the thunder are without Alexei Pukasevsky Jeremiah Roberts and Earl they're two impactful players, but not like on the level of a shade Gilders Alexander or Josh Giddy I mean SGA's got a usage rate over 32% Giddies near the top of the league and touches per game Notably like Pukasevsky has pretty terrible on-off splits not that Josh Giddies are great But that stuff does matter the heat like game after game have their entire roster on the injury report So they're honestly a team I try to ignore when I can you know, I do write content And if I find that I mean like step one for me is to figure out which key players are questionable And then just not look at those games unless I have to write You know if I can't find some more valuable information Then I'll look at things with and without those guys and figure out what the right play is there But you know NBA betting is kind of a volume game and there are a lot of opportunities to look past these like these teams But you know for tonight, you know natural television you wanted you wanted some action sometimes And you should always only you know Make make you know take action wherever you feel good And we'll we'll get to that point whether I actually feel good or not about this But they list a Tyler hero BAM at a bio is questionable Kyle always out Caleb Martin not as important But he's also out sorry Caleb in there listening, but so if I run the game without or with hero and at a bio active I really see this is like a no-action situation. It's really efficient. I Have the spread in the over under off by just point four points Yeah, which would be a lean toward the heat to cover into the over, but they're not bets that I would make They've yet to play a game with Jimmy Butler, but without a whole trio of Lowry hero and at a bio This is one of those spots where like okay, maybe look at games with Butler, but those three off the floor You're gonna see some possessions with Butler off the floor in that sample as well But Jimmy bothers not gonna play 48 minutes Tonight soap, you know that I think that that's so valuable again I'd see no value on the over under but I would actually view the thunder as favorites by decent margins So if we get news that those guys are all out, I would lean And I would actually take some action in a small action on the thunder to cover if In when we get that information for the Warriors and Suns the Suns have Been a weird team. They've been you know, they've had stints with him without Devin Booker. He's currently out I've often found them to be overrated because they're pretty bad team Without him, but even with Chris Paul and DeAndre eight and I think it's one of those spots where like The name value is still there for those guys, but their splits are not actually good and Devin Booker Is what makes that team flow the Warriors just got Andrew Wiggins back played? I think 19 minutes They're lifting listing Steph Curry is questionable, but I've seen on Twitter from a B reporter these probable So if you use their recent split, you're gonna be way off base because you're making games with with no Wiggins and Curry Two very impactful players, especially Curry on these guys have basically been out since like mid-December So, you know, that's a perfect example of the kind of thing that you're facing each and every day whenever you're looking at You know betting the NBA, so I can't really get behind the 10 point spread Mm-hmm. I wouldn't imagine that Curry and Wiggins play their full minutes if they're favored by this much You know DeAndre eight and might sit as well like the Suns are all completely they can be toast So I'm not really seeing a whole lot of value With the spread, but I do like the under because of the the anticipation that Curry and Wiggins may not have to play a full minutes allotment But even before I just assume that you know Golden State has a good defense This one should play a bit differently than they have in the past two matchups with you know Booker healthy The Suns without all those guys active. They play slower. They play more like an average team in turn Well, they're like below average or offensively, but above average defensively. That's an under friendly Situation so I would go with the under in this one. Yeah, that's a 228 right now Fandall sportsbook minus 110 on the under it is higher at Fandall than it is mother spots So if you want to bet the under on that game Fandall will likely be as of now at least Tuesday morning The best spot to get that we do have five other games on tonight's slates not a lot in those two games But what else is seeing on the board at Fandall for tonight? another Subjectivity situation that you could factor and we have a revenge. Oh, I'm in I don't know I don't need the rest of the analysis. What's the revenge here? Just can I bet revenge? What's the odds on revenge? Yeah, exactly 1000 Donovan Mitchell and the Cavs In Utah to face the jazz But I have used how to cover pretty easily it at There are four point underdogs. They're a pretty scrappy team. They have a good net rating They can score points, but I also like the over in this game They tend to allowing a lot of scoring in games in Utah games average 237 points Total is 226 and a half currently or was when I before we started recording 227 now So I don't have a tiny bit. I still like that You know two good offenses and a situation where there should be some points And then another game that's not super bogged down by like unpredictable injuries. I can deal with out tags like that's easy But the questionable tags are tougher. So a game without a whole lot of them For impactful players between Portland and Orlando Portland has had a lot of stints without Damian Lillard. He's a game changer His net rating is a plus 13 and a half if you look at the team with him without him That's super important Orlando in the midst of a road trip Portland returning from a road trip I have Portland to cover minus seven and a half. Yeah, it's seven and a half right now If you handle sportsbook and it all seven and a half elsewhere for that one as I'm gonna go ahead and just take now Following along being a great host and listening to you intently just so I can get my own selfish games Gains out of those. So the ones Brandon seeing right now He likes Portland minus seven and a half and that being likes jazz and calves over 227 jazz plus four you can still get that and then warrior sons under 228 the primary ones were brand is seeing value cross the NBA right now We'll brand it on throughout the offseason as well talk some more NBA, but also to talk some golf Let's talk about that right now and break down the Sony open in Hawaii That is the event for this weekend in the PGA there why like country club in Hawaii for this week and Obviously, that's gonna dictate a lot of things. So before we dig into the actual field What do we need to know about why like country club? Yeah, I mean, it's a week with like not a particularly Strong field, which is pretty common for the Sony open But it's the it's the type of course where irons and putting to get the birdies is what's important Not a single driving stat is vital You can actually kind of give some weight to driving accuracy if you want But you know, you need birdies seven of the past ten winners have been at least 20 under par None of them are super big hitters. I know reading lists of names There's not fun, but like just stick with me here. It's only 10. Was it really only nine? But Hideki Matsuyama, Kevin Naugh, Cameron Smith, Matt Kutcher, Patton Kezire, Justin Thomas, Fabian Gomez, Jimmy Walker, Back to Back and Russell Henley If you're following golf pretty heavily, you know that those are not guys that we load up on generally at courses that require distance It's gonna come down to again, you know, hitting fairways hitting greens and making putts Sometimes it really is that simple now That does lead to more volatility whenever we have more golfers who are You know, sometimes we have golfers who are sort of like disqualified from being In contention because they're not long enough. We don't have that so we have more golfers in the field who can contend Um, so a little bit more volatility This week, but I really think that there's a few a few good names at the top of the board that I still like And I'm excited about one in particular Okay, well, let's dig into that then you mentioned the volatility and that's why we're seeing longer odds here at the top Tom Kim is a favorite of annual sports book. He is 11 to 1. Sung J. M was 14 yesterday He is now 12. Uh, we got Jordan Smith at 15 to 1 Hideki Matsuyama 16 and Brian Harman 18 You mentioned there's someone you like you're the top of the odd sport Who is that and what puts you on them and any other outrides you like this week? I ask you like sick questions. I expect you to remember every single one Um, I like Tom Kim. I know I said it's volatile, but he's so good. He's really fun, but he's also just really good He's easily the best iron player in the field over the past 50 rounds According to data golf, uh, if there's a knock for me like on Kim's long-term output It's that he's not long off the tee. He is super accurate, but he's not long off the tee But that should work this week Uh, I could very easily envision Tom Kim's name at the top of that list that I just read off for 2023 of like Winner here another non-distance guy winning it in 2023. Yeah The irons are so good. He's a really good putter I think that it makes a lot of sense. So I'm in on Tom Kim Even at the top of the board at 11 to 1. I still see value there I like Brian Harman. He's not 18 to 1 on Fandall sports book He was 21, but I still think that that's uh, you know doable 11th and approach play among the field over the past 50 rounds 22nd and driving accuracy, which I know is not like a key stat for me, but I definitely don't dislike accurate drivers at this course He is ninth in stroke skiing teeter green over the past 50 rounds and he has six straight Top 25 finishes seven in his past eight starts golfing. Well should fit him well Um, I think he was third here five years ago, but don't quote me on that That one's just kind of something that popped into my head Uh, and then if you want someone a little bit longer odds, uh, Indra Putnam 55 to 1 on Fandall sports book He is top six in both short game stats So stroke skiing around the green and stroke skiing putting ranks 30th in approach play really like that combo here You can kind of look at Strokes gain minus off the tee, which I just call like stroke skiing fairway through green. He rates out really well there Um, just a perfect candidate for someone who's going to like upgrade an efficiency at a course like this runner up here in 2019 Uh, and those are the three outrides that I like the most for this week Yeah, brian harman finished fourth year back in 2018 I smiled when you mentioned putnam because he kind of popped to me yesterday And I was digging into uh, some of the numbers as we were doing research for our dfs show Putnam looked like he was over salaried based on his odds, but then he diggin It's like, oh, I think his odds might actually just be too long Um putnam right now as you mentioned is uh, 55 to 1 over at fandall sports But so tom kim and brian harman and your putnam the one's popping there as far as the non-outrides go Anybody sending out to you in those markets at fandall? um Just a lot of top 10s for me. I mean not a lot, but you know some I I still like putnam and harman for top 10s if you want to kind of safeguard or if you don't want to bet, uh, you know look, it's If you had called more cow last week, you thought you're gonna win Um for him to finish second and you didn't have any any top 10 or top five action like that's that's tough So sometimes even if i'm betting guys, I'll still protect with a top 10 Or in each way depending on where you are, but so again putnam and harman top 10s. I see value there Billy Horschel, uh, and these are just all guys who fit the course Billy Horschel top 10 Matt kutcher brandon todd mark hovered top 10s I can pull up those odds in a second because I forgot to write them down, but Those are all guys who make sense to me for top 10s here and they show value in my in my model for the week And that's the important thing there is because top 10 markets can sometimes get a little bit holdy That's not a word that actually exists, but i'm going to use it It's a little holdy the holding you're pretty high in those because they can hold you know hide the hold better But putnam right now is five to one to finish top 10 harman is plus 195 kutcher Is also five to one, uh, horschel. I did not look up yet Plus 360 okay, so horschel is plus 360 and then brendan todd another 700 Another staple of courses like this. Yeah seven to one cod's irons have also looked a little bit better recently Yeah, so I don't I don't think that's totally outrageous either But I think that those are all interesting and they fit the course like you said At least two of them putnam and Todd were guys who caught my attention yesterday and I was taking in some stuff So glad we're someone on the same page, which probably means we'll be having a lot of overlap in our dfs show later on today Well, I don't know if you'd be on mark hobert. He's uh, 11 to 1 to top 10 same as tom kim to win outright. So you know look you have You have top 10 markets for a reason Yeah, I'm shocked that there are that many top 10 Number showing value for you because typically at least for me It's hard to find value in those spots, but like again, you're running simulations So it's not like it's a oh, I can't bet the not right. I'll go here that that file process is flawed But you're using actual simulations, which gives me at least more confidence in like trying to back this stuff Yeah, we've talked about this, uh, you know off air with your You know really find a whole lot of You know find a lot of top 10 value in nascar, but I do tend to find it in in golf I think sometimes You know, there are like tiers of top 10 odds and sometimes I think that guys just get shuffled into like one tier of the next and I think that there's um a pretty decent, uh Pretty deep. I don't know. I find it The top 10s do well for me. So yeah Top 10s were good for that. You know that same experience Top 10s were good for me in nascar last year So I decided to completely retool the entire way I do top 10s Um, and I'm currently in the process of like going back to old races and making sure The new process works well And if there are too many guys showing value for top 10s I view that as being a red flag because I just get so annoyed with how much hold there is in the market but I think for this week specifically given that it is a you need kind of set up Um, I think that is encouraging to see the number of top 10s. Okay I feel like we got some pretty good stuff out there in the ether for this week Both for the nb8 tonight and for the sony open in hawaii. That has been brandon gedula Check him out on twitter at gedula 13 brandon. Thank you for your time for today And I will talk to you again later on talk some dfs for the sony open. Appreciate it Yes, sir. Good luck to everyone tonight and this week. Alrighty again, brandon is on twitter. I could do a 13 I am on twitter at jim saunas. We're back again tomorrow with more nba talking to tom of ecchio Getting his read on wins and I talk to the player props with tom as well That'll be a delight again wild card weekend preview is already up over on the covering the spread feed We'll talk to you all once again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network