 Hi, my name is Leon Roe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com We're welcome to this week's supply and demand forex and gold fundamental and technical analysis Please like subscribe and share if you find the content that I provide every week Useful and thank you for all of the other kind comments on my videos I will try and get back to you all as soon as I can and just a quick reminder I guess of the trading 180 process. We use both fundamental and technical analysis to really Choose and make the best trading decisions. It's not one versus the other We use the best of both so applying fundamental analysis to establish our overall directional bias Medium to long-term and then apply technical strategies supply and demand strategies to time Trade entries risk management and establish profits. So let's get into the coming week and In the week ahead zoom out a little bit She didn't mean zoom in a little bit, right? I'm trading economics. So we've got trouble in equity markets. This synopsis. I guess May not be over with investors looking for further clues on the course of the Fed's monetary policy and Monitoring earning results from big retailers. So stock markets been setting off recently a bit of risk-off sentiment coming into the market I see coming into the market. It's really been a risk-off environment When you think about, you know, Ukraine, Russia, you know conflict Inflation, you know is a risk-off event as well so Lots of risk often and now the stock market is is selling off so retail sales housing day are in speeches by Several Fed officials will take center stage in the US elsewhere the inflation Rates for UK Canada and Japan will be closely watched. So again, you know high inflation for pretty much everywhere The US in the US traders will keep a close eye on speeches from several Fed officials including the appearance of Fed chair Powell at the Wall Street Journal conference Also retail sales are expected to show a consumer spending picked up in April while fresh figures for industrial production that New York Empire State Manufacturing Index and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will probably point to a slowdown in the industrial sector So I think there's going to be a slowdown and pretty much In every country Every country is facing You know contraction or potential recessions Especially, you know the likes of Europe And the UK even more so than the US Elsewhere in America, it will be interesting To follow Canada's consumer and producer inflation and GDP growth figures For Colombia not really following Colombia, Chile or Peru It will be a busy week in the UK with several indicators providing an update on the British economy economic performance Consumer inflation surged to 9.1% last month, which would be the biggest rate on record since at least 1991 The unemployment rate is seen steady at three year lows at 3.8% while wage growth probably remained elevated in other signs consumer living standards is squeezing so Europe and and the Europe. Sorry, Europe and the UK are Really kind of going into the stagflation phase where they've got high inflation and contraction in the contraction phase I guess of the economic business cycle GDP cycle, so You know, there are problems major problems everywhere, but even more so I think in Europe in the UK Regardless of whether central banks are hiking rates. Meanwhile traders will follow the Bank of England monetary policy report hearing are a sorry in front of the treasury committee on Monday We've governed the Bailey in attendance elsewhere in Europe Russia expected to Release GDP figures traders will also keep an eye on European Commission's fresh spring forecast And that's going to be important because it just tells us what the central bank are thinking and what their, you know Monetary policy plans are From a speech from President Christine Lagarde in Darmstadt, Germany Could provide further clues on the central bank's plans to fight inflation, right? Euro area second estimate for GDP growth final CPI figures consumer confidence and trade data So that's always that's all going to be important. So Germany also produces prices France unemployment rate for quarter one and Italy trade balance Japan GDP And inflation data are due So the the Japanese economy is seen contracting 0.4% in the first three months 2022 after grand 1.1% in the previous quarter Lightly weighed down by the impact of public health restrictions to curb Omicron on private spending and exports And there's China and Australia right the jobless rate is likely to Lightly declined to fresh record lows. So that's going to be good in april For them additionally the nation holds federal elections So you've got local elections elsewhere, Thailand and the Philippines, right? So some decent market moving news especially in somewhere like In the uk And I wouldn't say Europe so much because it's second quarter estimates because the first quarter estimates are already out So let's see what happens in the week ahead So starting off on the dollar index dollar index just a measure of dollar strength against the major currencies Like the euro the pound and the yen and I've got last week's analysis on here Um, I'm getting waiting for a bit of a pullback Because ultimately you don't really want to be buying the dollar at highs and i'm buying the dollar at highs This isn't financial advice. I'm buying. I'm still bullish on the dollar. Although I do see the upside potential um waning for now, um, and I'm actually short on the actual dollar as well On for the dollar CAD but against everything else. I'm pretty bullish on the dollar um, but um But yeah, so we've got uh over on bullish on the dollar and uh last week was waiting for really prices to see if they could pull back a little bit But obviously didn't kept going higher But now that presents an opportunity and when I say pullback, I wasn't really looking to trade the us The the dollar index just use it as a confluence I guess so any pullbacks into a demand zone That would be really what you want to do it in look for, you know, demand zones or maybe the dollar yen dollar swiss if you're looking to buy those currencies, right But overall I'm bullish on the dollar The us dollar, but um, I have got open the position on the dollar CAD Short and that's for uh for several reasons that I share with the private group And in fact talking about the private group, I know a lot of people have been asking When the enrollment date is and so uh get full access to the supply and demand course content as well as the fundamental analysis And the enrollment really opens on the 6th of june and closes on the 10th. So there's a small window You know to to to join up and I like to keep the group fairly Small and limited not open to to everybody as everyone can then get the best And I can kind of focus the group So it will be open only for a limited time for about five days from the 6th to the 10th of june And you can watch this video as well tells you all about the The the course as well as the discord group and what exactly I do and to get traders getting the results That they hope to get so getting back to the the charts And getting back in fact to the to some fundamental analysis and the federal reserve Feds daily says strong economy can tolerate 50 basis point hikes and that is really key because Although inflation is you know going higher and central banks are hiking the key difference is understanding which economies can Tolerate I guess or accommodate a Hike because if you're hiking And your economy is not doing so well You could make you know the economy worse because you're making borrowing costs and lending costs expensive For businesses you were trying to go trying to grow so All central banks have this problem, but some more so than others and the federal reserve Bank of san francisco president mary daily Backed raising rates by half a percentage point at each of the central banks next two meetings adding She'd like to see financial conditions tighten fur for so Going up in 50 basis point increments to me makes quite a bit of sense And there's no reason right now that I see the economy to pause On doing that in the next couple of meetings daily said in an interview Thursday with bloomberg news. So you know that really kind of confirms You know what we say what we teach against him with when it comes to economics And understanding the the relationship between inflation Interest rates and gdp, right? Because that's what the banks are looking at in you know making their decision as to whether they should hike hold or cut rates now So for me, they're still on the hiking path But also as well the fact that they their economy can still or they think the economy can still You know support rate hikes Makes the dollar, you know a still a potential buy even though You know the dollar may pull back this week or next week or whenever it pulls back. It's going to pull back He just makes it, you know, for me buying opportunities at these areas. Nobody knows exactly which level we're going to turn around from But what we do know is that it was the dollar was a bargain here, right? And they made higher highs so potentially it could be another bargain At the 102s and then these areas here, of course, we're looking at confluence on other dollar crosses anyways going on to the dollar yen And the dollar yen has pulled back a little bit again. This was last week's Analysis so it's pulled back into the demand zone into that 28 round number I think I was saying that last week from the 28 round number to maybe the 27 should be really a potential buying opportunities Which there was and and so let's see what happens here. I do think though The yen could jump from based off of risk off sentiment, although it hasn't acted as a risk off currency So far, let's see what happens Coming into this week. There's been we've been reading a few bank analysis from The likes of you know MUFG for example That are talking about Potential yen gaining some strength, but overall I do think the dollar is still a buy against the The yen is just looking at pullback opportunities If you've missed that one, maybe a deeper pullback if we can get one down to the 127s would be a really nice buying opportunity If you are looking to potentially buy the the yen If you are looking to buy the yen then Any probably moves up towards that 131 is going to be decent down to the 128s So we are just like we're entering into, you know, the auction phase What many may know and is is arranging, you know, market state an agreement between the valuation of the dollar yen exchange rate between 131 is expensive at the moment and one to 127 anyway 126 Nines are considered, you know, a bargain so we could see prices come down and that could be a nice buying opportunity But my game I bias is to the the upsides any pullbacks of buying opportunities and potentially We've got a nice demand zone down here way down at the 121s I think that's going to be a very nice buy if it can get down there anytime soon Moving on to the dollar Swiss dollar Swiss has made parity right made one One dollar equals one frank and And so dollars literally just increase in strength again, you can understand why fundamentally The Swiss National Bank lagging way behind in monetary policy and this is pretty much what happens, right? This is what happens when you understand fundamental analysis You know, you get, you know, this start to happen, you know, trending markets So it's a case of just understanding where you want to be a buyer again, just pullbacks into zones I would prefer a bigger discount if prices can come down to the 98 to 97 areas I think that for me isn't is a nicer zone But if you do want to get, you know, long up here, just understand that you are getting long at an expensive area Looking at some some moving averages what is known as moving averages, but actually it's moving fair value To understand where fair value is because you never want to look to buy at, you know, an expensive area, right? So moving averages are actually moving fair value and we've got the monthly moving fair value Which is what I like to look at to give give the context of, you know If I'm buying in an expensive area if I'm buying for at least fair value or a bargain, right? So we've got the moving fair value Lying up around that 97 43 to 97 One area for the monthly moving fair value So I'm looking for really I think for me the bigger pullback down to this area here We can get that and look for buying opportunity But if again if you are looking at getting short on the on the The dollar swiss We are up into I guess some zones, but I'm going to ignore that because this is these are zones from like 2019. So Not really too keen on trading 2019 zones. Whatever happened three years ago Two and a half three years ago is not going to be the thing that drives prices to the downside putting a shift in maybe some sort of sentiment or profit taking may but I'm not really interested in in in in the in those older zones Looking towards the dollar CAD And the dollar CAD we're looking at this zone here and Managed to get in on an intraday trade matter of fact to stop hunt But that's beyond the scope of this video Uh, there was And there is a zone from way back when but wasn't really trading looking to trade that a lot of the guys We were looking at this area here as a as a nice stop hunt and finally it actually played out, you know As we expected there was an intraday Move which just happened to coincide with a bit of a long-term supply zone, but uh, yeah trades are doing Okay, so far With with potential, you know projections around at least this one to eight to one to six area To the downside, you know within the next coming weeks and months So let's see what happens with with this trade The canadian dollar I think is is a decent area a decent currency Against the the dollar if the dollar is going to weaken against any currency It's probably going to be you know, the the canadian dollar is going to be the top choice At the moment if you are looking for any kind of long trades and continuing to buy the dollar Then again starting from the one to eight forties is going to be where you want to get long That's a decent area of of demand to look for long trades Moving on to the new zealand dollar US dollar and commodity currencies Are suffering a little bit especially the um the australian dollar and the um and the new zealand dollar against the us dollar So again last week's analysis we were looking at you know pull backs into zones if you wanted to get you know Short on this currency pair buying the us dollar from a risk-off perspective against the New zealand dollar obviously prices didn't come back But they did create some more Uh supply so we've got supply there as well So any pull backs into those supply zones and then going down into again some sort of intraday time frame If that's what you want to do then that would be uh actually quite decent For potential short again, I would probably prefer You know the the second zone around this 0.645 to 0.655 area to look for any kind of uh Any kind of uh Short trades if I was looking to take this. I'm not it's not really on my list of things to take Um british pound us dollar again We've been calling this for a while now if you go back through my past videos We're saying the path of these resistances to the downside and I still can think it is there is actually hidden supply Right here Zoom in a bit. We've got hidden supply here, but it's quite it's at an expensive area So I'm not too keen on it if anything I'm probably looking for price to come up to the 126 is 125 126 is for for a potential short This is starting to look more like a bargain now for the us dollar and um looking at the pound. Let's go to the UK economy so recently We've had a gdp fall in the uk from zero fell 0.1 in march as cost of living crisis hit And the quarterly growth slowed to 0.8 in quarter one So lots of issues Stagflation issues going on in the uk And we also have as well The bank of england is told to Told more rate hikes needed as inflation harder to tame. So the central bank have a massive problem Slowing growth but higher inflation. So an increase in savings and fixed mortgages weakened transmission former government government advisor says higher rate Says higher rates needed for longer So um, again, the bank of england is being warned. It may have to hike interest rates higher than investors expect Even as the risk of recession mounts, right in the in part because it has lost so much of its power To control inflation. So again issues problems. Um, just because central banks are hiking rates Um, doesn't make it um always 100% positive typically it does But there are nuances that you have to be aware of and one of them is also the fact that The economy has to be able to support those, uh, rate hikes and if they can't or if they seem not to then for me I think the currency is either you don't trade it or it's a sell. So, um, that's where my my my my, um Bias is and will continue to be for now Looking at the euro dollar. So euro dollar, um, there was talks of actually parity going from one dollar to one euro um Within, you know, it's not being ruled out basically. So prices could actually go down to Around another three 400 pips, uh from here Um, the euro Looking at this technically Let me just delete some of the uh, see the analysis again We was looking for you know pullbacks to look for short trades. So, you know, our directional bias is is is correct But it's just, you know, the uh, the euro at the moment is it's weak in comparison to the dollar And uh, you just see in prices really just continue to, you know, move to the downside So any pullbacks into supply zones if you can get them, I think of the first opportunities to look for, um Sell a shorting opportunities on the euro dollar although they're, um, I think the euro will be a buy at some point if Uh, two triggers really if there are, you know, really good data coming out as far as GDP is concerned and also, um if the russia ukraine tensions, uh ease up and uh de-escalate so that could be a great, uh, euro driver but for now the path Uh, of the resistance is still to the downside fundamentally. So any pullbacks into these areas, I think the 108s to 109s are going to be decent In the short term you're looking at the 105 50s to one 650s as uh as potential short trades Um So, yeah, that's where we are with the euro Looking at your euro some euro fundamentals Um legard joins ECB officials in signaling july and rate liftoff So ECB president says hike may happen weeks after QE concludes quantitative easing and uh elderson nagle and philoroy show rising support for july move and um Yeah, so so pretty pretty much, you know, the the central bank, um, right out. Um, they're on board when it comes to Where am I now? Sorry. I'm going over the place. Here we go. Um, they're on board when it comes to Hiking rates, but that's only to probably stop the the euro going weaker and uh, or depreciating and devaluing simply because When um, when a currency devalues then inflation goes higher So they have to do something about the you know, the euro devaluing So hiking rates is basically being forced upon them. So, um, it's dependent on whether the market believes that, you know They're going to have sustained rate hikes and whether it's going to do Do things or do good things for the economy or whether the economy is going to suffer because of rate hikes. So I think, um, Again, uh, for me, the power for these are distances to the downside. The euro is going to be way more affected. Um, uh economically then, uh, then the us so For me again short bias Looking at the ozzy dollar the ozzy dollar, um in a risk-off environment The australian dollar doesn't do too well, especially against the us dollar and so again last week We were looking at some sort of pull backs if you could get it, but obviously the sentiment has been quite strong Uh Last week So again, just looking at where we can potentially get involved or if you want to get involved I'm not really looking to trade this currency pair, you know, I think right now up into that 70 cent area I think that's going to be a nice technical analysis support area. Um, and anywhere probably within this, uh 71 area to 72 and again just break down the zone. I think when you're looking at, um Potential uh areas to look for short trade so you can see here. That's where you have An area of support and resistance which can be used within supply and demand as confidence. So that one, um That 0.699 Uh 0.770 round number. I think it might be decent or just above it. I think it's going to be decent for a potential Um Short trade if you want to continue to buy the us dollar and buy the australian dollar the australian dollar Is it a buy if you zoom out, um, I think you'd have to really wait for proof of value meaning You'd have to wait for prices to really prove that there is strong demand and then a pullback Before getting long but for now, um, I think the australian dollar is probably weaker against the us dollar Aussie yen Aussie yen again risk off sentiment coming into the play and we've seen, um The yen finally start to act like a a risk off currency that it typically does So, uh, that there was no demand But we are starting to get demand to come in and if again this prices start to move higher Um, then any kind of pull back into that demand zone would be decent the nearest demand zone at the moment If you want to be a buyer of the australian dollar, which I am a buyer of the australian dollar, um It's going to be down here Down at the 85 50s. So, um, no buy trades For now until prices even come down to that area or they create a demand zone and then pull back because that would be really where Demands that will actually is from here to here would be the way the demand zone is so, um Let's see what happens there if you're looking at getting short on this currency Buying the the japanese yen then nearest supply zone is going to be up around the 92 30s to 94s before looking at getting short and Finally gold and gold again gold has not been acting like a um a A safe haven Currency says gold strange behavior shows it's no haven right this year. Um, there's been a lot of um Um De-couplings from what typically, you know tends to happen. Um, you've seen it in the uh swiss franc japanese yen and also Now more recently in gold and it says lately the precious metal is adding to portfolio volatility moving with the broader markets instead of against them. So That's uh, you know something that is uh A bit strange, but again, they're you know markets aren't 100 percent always You know Certain correlations aren't always 100 percent Um, there are reasons for it. I personally believe that this is again a more of a bigger liquidity hunt um, and uh, the big money is really looking to buy gold for cheaper levels And manipulating the market. Um, gold is the most confusing of all commodities Says kitko right now and here's why so It says it says it um, it doesn't seem to want to react to anything outside the us dollar And that's been going on for a solid year and a half says la forge The bad news is bad news and the good news is bad news It doesn't seem to matter gold reached a point where people just don't love it anymore. Um Don't love it no matter what the fundamentals are They'd rather go play and do uh other things bitcoin could be one of them this period doesn't have to last Which is key, but that's where gold is today, which makes things hard to explain So looking at you know a gold chart, right? It might seem like oh my days. What the hell is happening? You know, um gold typically goes higher or should be high especially when you think about you know risk of inflation problems economy is going into um And going into potential recessions and you know talk like that. Yeah gold is doing the opposite So for me, I've seen this happen and play out many many times before Um, I get an example of this matter of fact. Give me an example of this was during um co vid. So if you go back to 2020 demand Zone there, right? It was during this period here where What, you know, we had march 2020 right and then the federal reserve announced quantitative easing the world was in lockdown yet the markets for a few days or a week or two Um actually went to the downside But it was the smart money taking out all the liquidity and buying right gold for very very cheap And then look what happened right prices went to new all-time highs. So You consider what's going on now and you consider the strange moves of gold It's not, you know, it's not unbelievable to think that in fact the smart money Who know what's happening in or potentially going to happen in the next or forecasting anyway in the next, you know, three to six months You know for talking about if you do believe in the fact that you know The world is going into, you know global recessions food shortages, etc It makes all the sense in the world for the smart money to keep buying right To keep buying for cheaper rather than Um Gold, you know going going higher and it makes all the sense again because a lot of traders who believe Who typically find um, you know gold to be you know go higher should go higher in this what are they doing if they're buying Yeah, they're pressing buy that provides liquidity for anyone who wants to do what sell But so that you know, if anyone does want to sell they're making money in a short term But also as well if you're if you're buying at certain levels, right Your stop loss order is a sell order Right, so it allows The again financial institutions to buy for cheaper when you get triggered. That's forced selling and you're forced to sell to the buyer so You know, there's liquidity all underneath all down here if everyone's going long generally retail traders and even other You know institution phase to go in long But the really really smart money with deep pockets. I think personally are looking at Are accumulating at these areas here And but let's see what happens overall, right? But again, my bias is still to the long side, especially when that dollar and if that dollar starts to come down I don't know if it's going to come down for now But if it does start to come down then, um, I do think that the uh, that gold is still a buy but For now it looks like we're seeing You know the market come down if you are looking at getting short on gold then we've got Actually, I'll just draw that here makes it more simpler, right? So we've got a nice buying opportunity So anyone who missed out on buying gold earlier this year at these prices can now Get involved in that trade as well now So again, nothing's changing in fact things are potentially getting worse So this does does start to look like more of a bargain opportunity But if you are looking to short gold in the 1840s is probably going to be the first area to look for any kind of short trades Anyways guys, um, that's it for this week. Uh, hope you have a great trading week and uh, take care And I speak to you all soon