 international relations capsule for the Shankar IAS Academy. Today our topic is India's vaccine diplomacy. We are now going through one of the most difficult times in India's history with the second wave of COVID-19 running through India. The figures are staggering that India has now reached the topmost position among all the countries in the world in terms of daily infections and deaths. We witnessed this sometime ago in the United States, in UK and in several European countries. We were aghast at what was happening in those countries but fortunately our first wave was less virulent and less lethal than the second one. So we looked at the situation and it looked manageable because India is considered the pharmacy of the world in the production of pharmaceuticals, particularly vaccines and other medicines which have been used for the coronavirus disease were available to us and we believed at one time in early 2021 that we have flattened the curve as it were and India was well on its way to full recovery. In fact, Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the Davos Conference, the World Economic Forum with certain pride about India's achievements. He said that there were predictions of doom that India would have the largest infections in the world. There will be many, many deaths etc but he said with some satisfaction that India has crossed that stage and we are well on our way to recovery. Right from the beginning, India had believed in international cooperation in fighting the COVID. When the United Nations fails to set up any kind of arrangement to deal with it, that is the Security Council was not even able to meet to discuss this issue. India had tried various other international arrangements like SARC, like G20, like other regional organizations etc and pledged certain commitments to all of them. In this general field of comfort we had about our adequacy of our hospitals, our stocks of medicines and when the vaccine started coming up towards the end of 2020, we thought we are also really comfortable with that. So we had taken a comprehensive international view rather than a narrow domestic view. So without making a realistic projection of what could happen to India, India began starting what is called a vaccine diplomacy. As you know this happened pandemic hit us or the pandemic was already in progress when the Chinese aggression took place. So we at that time had thought that we might decouple our requirements for various things from China as an economic measure to persuade China to withdraw from Indian territory or at least to come to terms with discussions about this aspect. So we banned certain things, reduced some investments. In other words, we are trying to reduce our dependence on China on many supply chains. That was then when the Chinese announced that they had virtually recovered from the COVID situation in China and that they had the vaccines and the medicines available to them to give to others also. We in that state of competition with China felt that this was one way of since we are known as the pharmacy of the world, this was one way of using our soft power as it were to compete with China. This was not the main objective was not competition with China. But we had a sense of confidence that we could supply the requirements of the world even after having met our requirements. And therefore we saw a large number of medicines and vaccines being gifted to many countries around the world. In India had donated or given away about three lakhs cases of vaccines and 6.6 million doses of vaccines to 95 countries. Out of this 10 million was grants, 20 million was part of a global Powax arrangement and 36 million is commercial exports. And it was at this point in time when we were sealing a sense of comfort, not only that and also that we could help the other countries of the world through a soft power arrangement. All this was done and suddenly we are confronted with the second wave of the coronavirus. Then suddenly we discovered that we did not project our requirements of the future taking into account a possibility of a second wave. This was an error of judgment, a kind of optimism that we could deal with the situation and be helpful to the world. So it was basically humanitarian but at the same time also there was an element of a soft power competition with China. It is then that it came about that we had two major deficiencies. When we started giving vaccines to our own people in a very concentrated manner to various ages, groups of people, a massive campaign started. We discovered that we did not have enough vaccine even for ourselves. So we had to suddenly stop exports. Of course, the world understood that because your requirements are more. But stopping exports alone did not mean the crisis because we know that day in and day out we are seeing corona patients outside on the street, outside the hospital, sitting in cars and people trying to give them oxygen. And we also had to stop the massive vaccination program because there was not enough stocks for the future. So we started rushing. We started asking our own company, the two companies that produce vaccine to multiply their production. And we tried to get as much vaccine from other countries, United States first and Russia and some from Europe. So the vaccine supplier or the medicine supplier of the world became for the need, the need for us to have supplies from other countries became very essential. And this is where the government of India has come to be criticized initially by the opposition. But now there is a real hue and cry regardless of political affiliations of lack of planning and overall confidence. Of course, the defense of the government is that the second wave was not expected. But we had seen the second wave and also mutations of the virus in many countries, particularly the UK. The second wave was much more dangerous and much more grave in the UK. But we did not think that this would happen to us. And therefore we did not make enough. So two things we need very badly, oxygen and vaccines. So we made a general appeal. We have a policy of not seeking assistance from abroad when we have natural calamities. So far with that has been the policy. But this was a grave situation and an emergency. And therefore we made it known to the world that we would welcome assistance, particularly in vaccines and oxygen and several other medicines and gloves. So this has been considered a failure on the part of the government. Our first expectation was from the United States. But even after this became very grave, there was not much of a communication from the United States. For almost about a week after the gravity of the situation became evident, the United States government did not even make a statement of support or readiness to help. Then apparently, this is not confirmed, our National Security Advisor contacted the American, his American counterpart and explained the very serious situation that is taking place. And then immediately, President Biden made a statement on our on his behalf, a statement was made that the requirements of United States of vaccine are so great that they may not be in a position to supply vaccines to India. And after that, there was a conversation between our Prime Minister and President Biden. And then he pledged several things, relief materials, etc. But in the case of vaccines, he said, we have a problem because there is a particular law in the United States, which prohibits export of vital material like vaccines under some defense act of the United States. And he added by saying that more than sending these vaccines outside, it is more crucial for me to vaccinate my own citizens because these viruses cannot be limited to one particular country. So vaccinating American citizens is as important as exporting vaccines to other countries. Because if we don't control the situation in the US, the situation in India cannot be controlled. This is a fact. So he expressed certain helplessness, which came as a big surprise to us. There were other countries also exporting, China had exported about 80 million doses to 60 countries. European Union had exported 113.5 million doses to 43 countries. And then there was also a plan among the quad countries to have a separate vaccine program according to which the money would come from the Japanese. The production facilities will be that of India. The technology will be from the United States and Australia will help with logistics. And that program has already begun, but it will take time for this to materialize. So it became very important for us to get immediate supplies and the supplies have begun coming in. From the United States, vaccines are not coming. But they have said that they would be able to give equipment and machinery necessary for manufacturing the vaccines and components and vaccines themselves will take some time. So this has created a very serious emergency. And most people are blaming the government for undue hurry in engaging in vaccine diplomacy. The discontinuance of the export has created more problems than before because those countries had also started vaccination campaigns and they were demanding more and more vaccines from India. And we are now completely stopped. So it appears to us that this vaccine diplomacy of India was counterproductive. But now there is no point in sharing blame or accusing the government of lack of clarity or lack of studies, etc. But everybody has to work hard to rescue the situation. The two production companies have been given huge advances, 3000 crores or 6000 crores immediately increase their production. But that does not happen over that. They are even seeking to manufacture some of the vaccines outside, according to some reports. So a huge demand has come. There is a huge incline particularly in Delhi. The situation is very grave. The deaths are increasing day by day and the infections are also breaking record levels. So the government of India is in the dark as it were for not anticipating this kind of a situation. The government explanation was not very convincing. Like the foreign minister said that if we did not export medicines etc to other countries, why should they export anything to us? True. Trade of course this is important to meet each other's needs and that is how you engage in international cooperation. But in this exceptional situation, when Indians are dying in hundreds for want of vaccines or want of oxygen or want of hospital facilities, what is important for us is to meet our own requirements as was demonstrated by Mr. Biden himself. Because even though he is committed to India bilaterally and also through the Quad, there is a program which is in progress but he presented a practical problems for us and spoke almost like Trump when he used to talk about America first. So their approach of an America first in the matter of relief goods and vaccines has created this crisis situation in India. Of course we are doing everything possible that vaccine has already arrived from Russia, Sputnik vaccine, Taiwan we have bought some and even from China there are offers of assistance. I don't know whether we have actually accepted but I don't think that we will have any reservation from getting anywhere from anywhere which we are able to buy or to receive as gifts and at the same time our obligation that we have taken for ourselves in supporting and giving vaccine to these countries have also become very urgent. And it was also surprising that we had anticipated a kind of normalcy by April and May. There were visits planned, international visits planned by the Prime Minister himself. There were several visits being planned for foreign visitors, dignitaries visiting India. All this had to be cancelled and this vaccine, Mi3 which was launched for neighboring countries also came to a complete halt. China of course tried to exploit the situation. So, they called the conference of South Asian nations foreign ministers to discuss the needs of these countries, South Asian nations to their requirements and to give them whatever support was possible. Before they said that India would also be welcome to participate but I don't think India participated in it. But there was a subtle signal to the South Asian countries that India may not be able to help you and therefore you have to come to us for your support etc. So, China seems to have gained a little in this process but for us now it is not a matter of soft power, it's a matter of urgent need of the vaccines. So, there is this criticism of whatever we have done in this area and the only assurance that the government is giving is that whatever has happened has happened but we are taking all measures necessary and the response of the world is certainly encouraging. But the argument that if we had not given to other countries, we would not have got from them does not seem to be right because in a humanitarian situation of this kind and when we make requests, people do not immediately check whether we have been helpful to them. If they can afford and their situation permits it, they will certainly provide help and that is the practice around the world. Now, one country which has come up with a very practical idea is Japan. They have started a waxing initiative and as a part of the Quad initiative. So, Japan is basically providing the funding to other Quad countries to increase their production and supply. So, having given away about 66 million tons of vaccine, we are now seeking to get as much of vaccine as possible for ourselves. So, the criticism is that India perhaps pursued a strategic waxing dependency to counter Chinese influence and that's also part of the criticism that we are facing. So, global health is a matter of universal value and importance and the mistake that we made in not assessing our requirements for the contingency of second way has been the diplomatic failure or planning failure of India. So, this was sometime I think this will be a blot on our government particularly because thousands of people are dying but everything is being done to rectify this and maybe in a few weeks or in a few months we'll probably have enough oxygen and enough waxing for the whole country. So, whether this has been a diplomatic failure or a health failure or lack of planning, India has in fact suffered an image, a loss of India's image as the pharmacy of the world. One thing which perhaps we did not take into account was though we were exporting large quantities of generic medicines and many other medicines at low cost to the developing world, we were importing as much as 60 to 70% of the components of our pharmaceutical industry from China. So, when we wanted to at the time of the incursion, when we wanted to cut off our dependence on China, one of the factors which came up at that time was that so much of these machinery, sorry, the pharmaceuticals had to be created, had to be manufactured with components from China and may have happened at that time, we had unwittingly reduced our import of these components without realizing that the corona situation is going to be so grave. So, it is not just a health emergency for us now. This is an emergency allegedly created by lack of vision and lack of planning. Of course, the Prime Minister is being criticized, but there is no immediate solution that he can find. But we can expect and hope is that the international assistance will come in due course, even before the situation gets much worse because it is supposed to peak by the middle of me. And after that, maybe it will be more manageable. So, our crisis situation, the high health crisis situation has become a diplomatic crisis situation also. And the American position, the Chinese position, the Russian position are all different on this issue and something has to be worked out. In my opinion, this is all because the United Nations was incapacitated because this is an issue which has no borders. All these can happen anytime, anywhere. So, if only we had an international mission guided by the UN Security Council, these things would not have happened. We don't even know what the requirements of those countries to whom we sent vaccines. There was also some vaccine hesitancy. Even in India, as you know, in the initial stages, people were not willing to receive the vaccine. Originally, there was concern about CoV Shield, which had not reached the final stage of testing before it was released. And the Congress party openly opposed the use of CoV Shield. Covaxin and CoV Shield, of course, as you all know, it is the Zeneca vaccine, which was developed in collaboration with Oxford University, but they were manufactured in India. So, there was some suspicion about CoV Shield. Then Covaxin, which is entirely Indian, there was also some suspicion on CoV Shield, there were some cases of blood clots and etc. And Covaxin not having completed its trials. And when the vaccination started in India, we used CoV Shield, which was imported and also manufactured here, and then Covaxin entirely manufactured here. But it has turned out now that Covaxin is apparently more powerful, more immune-creating than CoV Shield. But the consumers, the patients or the people themselves have no choice if this matters. But it all depends on what stocks we have and what stocks we'll be taking in the future. But certainly, since this corona virus is not going away, the stepping up of production will have to continue till a stage is reached when we are sure that no new mutation has taken place and also no next wave will not appear. But as of now, there's a totally uncertain situation which poses an existential threat to humanity as a whole. So, we have to think beyond diplomacy, we have to think beyond borders and all countries are together. And now India is taking the lead. Initially, we did more as a multilateral effort, more as a humanitarian effort. But now it is all the more urgent for us because it is a need for India itself. And like President Biden said, for a country like India to vaccinate themselves is as important for India as for the rest of the world. So, we have to look out for hope. Of course, we all hope for the best. But if you look at the situation today, it will be very frustrated. And that is the reason why there is this criticism that vaccine diplomacy has not succeeded. That is something that we can debate and pleasure in the history of the pandemic. But as of today, our need is to use all our diplomacy, all our friendship and influence in the international community to get as much of these equipment and components and vaccines themselves from the rest of the world. And that is what our diplomacy is now directed at. So, let's hope it works out for the sake of human population and also for the sake of humanity as a whole. Thank you.