 Week 11 was defined by big performances from big-time stars, not just Jonathan Taylor, but also Austin Eckler going off in the Sunday night game. We had Devonte Adam, Justin Jefferson doing work in that Minnesota versus Green Bay game, big-time performances, big-time players. We're going to recap what that means going forward for DFS. Take a quick look at the Thanksgiving slate. Take a quick look at the Week 12 main slate as well and get you set for this week of NFL DFS. Welcome on into the Heat Shack Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network in NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sottis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Joined here as always by Brandon Gadoula. He is the managing editor of NumberFire.com. Brandon, Week 11 was an interesting one for sure. How are you doing today? I'd be doing better if I had more Jonathan Taylor. I had some, not enough. I had some Justin Jefferson, not enough. It's kind of the story of the week outside of the fact that a lot of the chalk busted. And as someone who doesn't typically play a lot of chalk, I did kind of play the chalk this week with Jeff Wilson, AJ Dillon, and just everyone in that Chiefs and Cowboys game, which that could have gone a little bit better. Yeah, I definitely could have. I think that the good thing was, I had Jonathan Taylor in the right spots. It wasn't like I had like 40%, but I had him in the right spots. And like we had talked about him on Thursday and talked about the bill's defense and stuff like that and how they were susceptible against, you know, better offenses. And we thought the quotes were that. So I did use him in like my highest dollar single entry contest. And it was a terrible lineup. I had, I think, DAC. I had CD-LAM. I had Jeff Wilson, like just a wretched lineup, but it's still cashed because Jonathan Taylor scored like half the points. And I think that there are two things that are, that we can take away from that is, one, mistake erasers matter a lot. You want guys with the upside in every key spot because like they can, they can give you a lot more wiggle room to be stupid, which I was. But also don't treat single entry as if you need to use the same lineup in every one, kind of give yourself more wiggle room. And like, this is something that's kind of known. We've only talked a lot in the podcast about where if you're doing single entry, I would use different lineups across single entry. So you're giving yourself effectively multiple entries across different contests. And I think that that's something that, that I do a lot, but we never talked about. I don't think on the show because we just don't talk a lot about overall strategy a ton. But I think that like, if I just won lineup this week out of God, Dalvin over JT for that one lineup, but because I had multiple single entry teams, I'm able to go with JT and one, of course, stacked with Emmanuel Sanders didn't really do much. But like, I think that's the key takeaway is not just the mistake erasers, but also when you're doing single entry and doing multiple ones, treated as if it's still very much a tournament ask lineup. And if you're doing multiple use different lineups effectively. Yeah, I would assume and I'm guilty of this as well, where you kind of build your best lineup and you play that as your like, you know, your, what would be your cash? Your, yeah, what you would consider your cash game lineup, your default lineup, you put, you plug that into single entry lineups. And I still think there's a case for that because you're literally building the best lineup you think you can make. So long as you're baking in, into your like head to head lineup, some form of ceiling, if you're looking only at like, where the odds this guy gets me, whatever value threshold I'm looking for, maybe most likely nothing else. And I'm good with that. I'd never build a lineup like that anyway. So it depends on how you view a cash game lineup. But yeah, I'm with you. I was really into the bigger like multi entry tournaments in years past this year. I've shifted away like my interest into the single entries, the three entries. And all it takes is being a little bit different, not outrageously different. Jonathan Taylor was not some off the wall play. We talked about his viability and it's not like we were the only people who would have liked Jonathan Taylor. But the other thing too is like, if you didn't have Jonathan Taylor, and this is a really bad example because he put up over 50 Fandall points, like, let's say he put up 30 and it was like, oh, he had a great game. Justin Jefferson had a big game. These guys weren't that popular overall. So if you're playing a single entry and Jonathan Taylor's five percent rostered, yes, you're lagging behind us five percent, but you don't have to make up that gap on everyone tens of thousands of lineups if you're in a massive, massive tournament. And there's a lot of appeal for massive tournaments. And I love those two. But I'm just particularly drawn, but it's probably related to my success. But yeah, maybe we can talk some off season strategy for once. Oh, all right. I'll be down for that for sure. JT was six percent in the Sunday million. Those numbers up on numberfire.com can find that over there. We'll plug for our stuff up there. And I think that was about what we expected. I would guess for that. So I think that that was baseline. We'll talk about what that means, what his performance means and more in just one second. But first, Fandall and EA Sports are teaming up to give you a one-of-a-kind fantasy contest this Thanksgiving, introducing the Madden NFL 22 Thanksgiving game sim on Tuesday, November 23rd. That's tomorrow could say that way instead tomorrow. Fandall run a simulated Madden game previewing the Thanksgiving matchup between the Cowboys and the Raiders. And you can get into the action and compete for your share of cash prizes. Simply construct your best five player roster while staying under the salary cap and make sure to tune into the live stream on YouTube, Facebook or Twitch to watch as the game unfolds. If your team finishes as one of the highest scoring teams in the contest, you will be eligible to win a share of a $25,000 prize pool for more details as Fandall.com or download the Fandall fantasy app. Eligibility restrictions apply. Let's check out the week 11 headlines over here. I know you have a helper up for the Madden sim, right? Is that what you're going to say? Yeah, we were already plugging number fire stuff. I figured I'd throw that out there. It's a good website. So you can go there and find a lot of good stuff including Brandon's helper for the Madden sim, which is tomorrow, not Tuesday, November 23rd. How do you say that? It's tomorrow. It's tomorrow. It's tomorrow. People listening on Tuesday are like, shut up, Jim. Anyway, a headliner for this week was the big performances by the running back, Jonathan Taylor and Austin Eckler. We'll start things off here with Taylor. Because I think he's a tier above Eckler and his performance was pretty stupid. He went bananas and it means that he's, I think in the conversation for being the RB one, even with Christian McCaffrey being fully back, Taylor had 204 yards in scrimmage. That is his second time getting 200 or more this year. It was his fourth time with 150 plus. That's 15 fan dual points on yardage alone four times this year. He also had 11 out of 14 red zone chances, which is in line with what he's been doing all year. So neutral matchup, Christian McCaffrey versus Jonathan Taylor, who you got right now. Oh, boy. I love the touchdown equity that Jonathan Taylor provides with his amazing red zone workload. And as much as we're not particular fans of Jonathan Taylor's quarterback, it's a pretty overall better spot than what McCaffrey has. And Christian McCaffrey always has and still looks like he's able to thrive despite or I guess in spite, I think they're literally the same thing in spite of a situation. Taylor is phenomenal and is in a pretty good offense. And then once they get into the red zone, they just give him the ball. That's like, you can't ask for a whole lot more. I'm kind of getting shades of like a Todd Gurley role where it's like, okay, we're inside the 10. We're just going to give it to Todd Gurley and he's going to eventually just score. Jonathan Taylor has 62% of the Colts red zone opportunities over his past five games. That's just phenomenal. You can't really ask for a whole lot more from a player who is able to run for 150 plus yards, have multiple touchdown upside, not just because the Flux are big plays, but because of his literal opportunities from inside the 10, inside the five. He's also getting some targets, which I like 38243. It's like, if you gave me that with Derek Henry in years past or like this year, it's like, hey, we know he's got the potential for 150 plus on the ground with 20 plus carries. He's going to get the ball near the goal line, give him some yardage juice out of the backfield. Like that's really difficult to pass up. So I don't know where I am with he versus McCaffrey. I think I'd probably have to put Taylor just a tinge above due to everything I said and really coming down to the offense and potential game script. But boy, I really, I really turned around on Jonathan Taylor. Yeah, I mean, like his role changed. So it's not, it's fair that you, you know, were not assigned in previous, his role actively changed. Like they, his snap rate was in between 45 and 55% each of the first five games. It has not been below 60% sets. It's been 80% each of the past two games. So he had a role change in there, which is good. But like, let me just read off these red zone shares for the past couple of games. 11 out of 14 this week, eight out of nine last week, seven to 12, three of nine slacking six of nine, four out of four, six out of six. Like it's absurd. And when you combine that with a better overall offense, I'm going to take that over Christian McCaffrey. And that's not again, that's not a disrespect to McCaffrey. It's because Jonathan Taylor is one of the best offensive lines of football. Christian McCaffrey has one of the worst. And Cam played well and I like Cam, but I would probably, like if I had, if I needed to generate touchdown drives for one game, I'd probably go Wenz right now over Cam. I don't know. That was not a lot of conviction in that statement. I know that's the, although I'm pretty sure the Colts have a pretty easy schedule too, which is not like a, we don't need to take a season long view, but I don't think we'll have a whole lot of spots where they're in bad situations. Right. So I think that he's RB one right now. And I feel okay saying that. And we can use them in tough spots. Like the bills had been the best rush defensive football so far this year and they just man handle them. So I think that matters a lot. We had talked about how they could be beaten, but like, you know, beaten by the right circumstances and the Colts are all those right circumstances. There were some short fields, which, but that's part of a range of outcomes for running back. You also got to factor in the opposing quarterback or anyway. So quickly, it's fine. We're going to say Taylor 1A over, would you say 1A1B or 1 and 2? Okay. No, 1A1B. McCaffrey's too good to make him a 2. So then name a salary, a main slate salary. Ten. Ten thousand for Taylor and how far is the gap over McCaffrey? Nine eight for McCaffrey. Okay. Two hundred dollars. Taylor's nine eight. McCaffrey's nine seven. Okay. That's very fair. The Colts are facing, I haven't familiarized Tampa Bay, right? Colts, yeah, they're hosting Tampa Bay. Carolina doesn't go. They might be able to move the ball there too. And Carolina gets Miami. So yeah. Yeah. I think Vita Vita has a big one to track there. They like, that's a big duty missing inside for Tampa Bay. So watch Saquon Barkley tonight and see what the Giants offensive line does and then multiply that by like six and that could be what you can expect out of the, the Colts there. We had Austin Neckler last night with four touchdowns of his own kind of sneaking in after the big JT game. Let's talk about him too though. Eckler had 11 carries and seven targets for 140 or 15 yards. He had six out of 10 chances inside the red zone for those were actually targets, which is pretty fun. That brings the red zone share for the season for Eckler up to 35.7%, which is okay. He's out. He's now averaging 97.8 yards and strength per game. So between the two, I'm far more skeptical of Eckler. I think he's actually closer to like the Zeke tier than the Taylor tier. What about you? Where are you at on Austin Neckler right now? Yeah. So I don't have specifically relevant samples like Jim always does with running backs. I tend to just grab like a past five weeks to kind of get a vibe for certain things, which I'm sure drives Jim absolutely crazy. But over the past five weeks, so four games for Eckler, he's at 25.5 adjusted opportunities per game, which is carries plus double your targets because on average, a target on Fandall for running back is worth twice as many Fandall points as a carry. So that's why we do that credit to Jim on that one. So 25.5 there, that ranks him ninth among all running backs, I guess eighth because Henry's out. Taylor's at 29.2. It's a pretty sizable gap there. And yeah, you mentioned like the Zeke tier, Zeke's at 21.3 in that span. So Eckler is kind of at the, I would say top of the second tier, depending on how many of the backs you view as top tier backs, but it's probably Taylor McCaffrey tier one, right? Nobody else would really make that. Nope, I agree. So I think, well, then if that's the case, Eckler's probably like mid tier two. Yeah, because Najee's probably up there, Dalvin. Like Dalvin versus Eckler, I'd probably go Dalvin as well. Yeah, I would too. Najee provided that he's all good to go, which should be. He came back in, so he should be fine. So it's like, look, I don't want to overreact to touchdown conversions. That's not really what I'm reacting to with Jonathan Taylor. I'm reacting to the conversion on what is very obviously forcing him the ball. I don't think that's going to be the case with Eckler. So like in a weird way, sometimes when I see performances like this for running backs, I get a little bit out on them because regressions coming unless the role is so different. And again, it's really like that's what's drawn me in with Jonathan Taylor. Yeah. They get Denver next week. The Chargers do and that's not super enticing either. So we'll see on that one. But I would say it's probably like Najee, Dalvin, Eckler in that second tier ball parking. I think that's probably where I'd be right now. Let's move now to the injury discussion from week number 11. The big one is CDLAM suffering a concussion at the end of the first half of the Cowboys and being ruled out. Dak really struggled in this game negative 0.29 passing at expected points per drop back. And the poopy thing is that Lance probably going to miss Thursday as well. Amara Cooper will miss Thursday too because of the COVID-19 positive. If we look at the second half targets, which will be the team they've got for Thursday. Cedric Wilson led a seven targets. Zeke had four. Michael Gallop had three. He had a lot of targets in the first half. I'm guessing it was Kansas City just like trying to lock him down in that second half. My Dalton Schultz had three. Tony Power had two. Malik Turner two. So we're going to talk a lot about the Cowboys tomorrow on the Thanksgiving podcast. Actually, I probably should have mentioned that we have the Thanksgiving podcast tomorrow in the week 12 preview Wednesday. What a terrible host. Anyway, Thanksgiving podcast Tuesday at 10 a.m. The week 12 preview Wednesday at 10 a.m. both in the financial YouTube page and on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Go subscribe anyway. So Kellan Moore has three days to game plan with no Cooper and no lamb. Where are we out in this Cowboys offense entering Thanksgiving versus Las Vegas? So I was watching that one because I was taking notes late on Sunday writing up a helper for Number Fire, which is a place where we have content if nobody's mentioned that yet today. And I was wondering what the what the total would be what the spread would be. Fando Sportsbook took down the total and the spread, but Dallas is still a seven point favorite. The total is still 51, which is virtually where it was with the lamb injury. So maybe there's something we don't know about, but the books haven't really overreacted too much to that news, which is kind of telling I'm again, I don't know how deep we want to get into this team because we'll cover them in depth tomorrow or Tuesday, November 23rd. But boy, that's that's really putting a damper on my Thanksgiving slate outlook. But with Wilson and Gallup and Schultz, I still feel pretty confident that this team will be relevant on the Thursday slate. So yeah, yeah, I think it's one top offense on the Thursday slate, which is upsetting. I think it might be enough where I go buffalo though. I don't know, man. Let me see here. So I can look at my projected offensive efficiency. So before entering this past week and bumping down Dallas for the injuries, they would have been first in the entire league for this week. Oops. Buffalo would have been 14th before the Indy game. Who else is on Thanksgiving? Wow, what a bad slate. This is fun. Yeah, we get Vegas. 17th. Well, Detroit before entering in Tim Boyle, great Jared Goff somehow. Detroit would have been 30th, Chicago had been 29th. So Dallas, I think we'll still be number one. But like, so Dak in the games where he's been missing at least one of the key receivers is at 0.21, passing that expected points per dropback. I think that what I'm expecting is that they almost just go run heavy because like we've shown that they can do that and like they might just bully ball the Raiders this entire game, which they can do. The Raiders are just kind of mid-level against running backs too. Yeah, Nixon was good against them this week. I think that Wilson would be the two. Wilson would probably be the two, right? Right now, Cedric Wilson. Like within this offense? Yeah. Like so you're saying. Would it be him or Schultz? Wait, wait, are you saying pass catchers or like we want to play Zeke first? No, no, no, no, sorry. Pass catchers. So exclude Zeke. So then Gallop 1, Wilson 2. Wilson or Schultz? I would go Wilson because we have a pretty decent tight end slate. Yeah. Darren Waller, TJ Hawkinson, depending on, although he at least got targeted. I'll give him that much. So he's not Donald. Adam Troutman, Dawson Knox, potentially Cole Comet. If we really want to get weird. Yeah. It's, it's rough. We'll talk more about that Thursday, but it is a downgrade for this team for sure. But Cedric Wilson, the big benefactor, I think from, in terms of like how he adjusts him relative to where he was at before. Do you have another question? I thought you did. You looked like you had a question. No. If anything I was going to say, you mentioned Dallas, because I was going to say this and then we said we were going to talk about it later. So. Go ahead. Dallas's implied team total is going to be 29 points at the current spread and over under Buffalo 25.25. So that's a pretty sizable gap. So we'll have to figure out popularity and all that jazz. Oh boy. We get, we get four of the six teams with implied team totals of 22 and a half or lower. So I tweeted back on November 8th that the Thanksgiving slate not being bad. Since then we've had injuries to Justin Fields, Avalon, Camara, CD Lam, Jared Goff, and Mark Cooper got the Rona. Josh Allen. I mean, took off the Scooby-Doo mask and revealed himself to be Josh Allen. So like, you know, it's, it's weird. Anyway, let's talk about the other team that has a key injury. Did the other Josh Allen like steal like quarterback Josh Allen's like identity or something? No, you space jammed him. You stole his talent. Space jammed him. Yeah. Yeah. I know what you're saying. Justin Fields left early. The rib injury didn't return. It sounds like it's not a broken rib, but it's bruised and that can still hurt. Andy Dalton went 11 of 23 in relief, but actually played well from an efficiency perspective, 0.31 passing that expected points per dropback. He threw Darnamoonie 11 times through DeMarco's good one five times. If we look at the numbers overall this year, Dalton's passing that expected points per dropback is 0.10, whereas Fields at negative 0.15. I think the key thing that I saw here is that Dalton threw deep whereas he did not earlier on this year, because like if you had given me Mooney on Thursday without seeing Dalton throw deep, I would have been a bit more skeptical, but now I'm like, okay, I'm kind of receptive to this because Dalton did show willingness to push it down field. So how would Dalton starting impact your view of the Bears entering Thanksgiving? I would love Darnamoonie. I'm probably going to have to love him anyway just because of the state of receivers that's a little bit shaky for that slate. I'm not saying it's terrible. We have the Bills, so we have like sort of secondary options among receivers there, but the 48% target share for Mooney comes with a lot of downfield work, and he's been really their guy lately anyway. I have a note on Deontay Johnson, but off the top of my head, I think three guys over the past five weeks have a target share of 30% or higher. Since week six, it's Cooper Cup at 31%, Darnamoonie's at 30%, and so is Deontay Johnson. I know that you have to factor in volume there, but if you're going to get like 35% of even a low volume offense on a three game slate, that's very appealing, especially with some downfield juice. So that's the biggest thing I'm looking at for this week is how I would view Darnamoonie. Yeah. I don't know. I kind of wanted to use Fields in this game, so I'm a little fond about that. I think that like it's a slight bump up for those guys, a slump up up for Mooney, a slight bump up for David Montgomery. If you didn't love Justin Fields and you saw a court... Right, but like negative 0.15 includes like all the bad stuff. Like he had a really good game against Pittsburgh, that's a tough team, really good game against, or not a really good game against San Francisco, you know, tougher defense and lines are not. So like I had seen improvement. I'm okay factoring that in for a rookie who's pretty young. So like I'm not looking at full season data as much for Fields as I am, like begging in for the fact that he's gotten better as he has gone along. Okay. I can pull up some... Do you have a week where you think Fields really started showing you some stuff? I mean like I don't want you to like look at it because like it's more like a feel-based thing. Yeah, no, I get it. Cause like he was facing Pittsburgh. Yeah, but I can adjust for that. All right. Since week six... No, not week six. I'm just grabbing samples here. So week eight, week eight on. Give me the adjusted numbers for Justin Fields. Adjusted EPA per dropback is from next-gen stats, EPA model. Zero EPA per dropback minus 0.01. So basically playing two expectation since week eight. So that's in your favor because before that, boy, he was not close to expectation even a little bit. But he's a rookie. So you expect him pretty much to do that. No, I get that. I get that. Yeah. So I think it's like a slight upgrade for Dalton to be in there versus Fields. I'm still bummed because I don't think I want to use Dalton and I would have used Fields. So I think it's a bummer more than anything. But like, you know, slap a bump from Montgomery and slap a bump from Mooney. Yeah. It feels like that's like a two touchdown first quarter for Andy Dalton coming when I like, I can't really talk myself into using them. Yep. AJ Brown and Marcus Johnson were both banged up for the Titans. Brown got hurt, left, came back in, left again. Johnson ruled out early, didn't come back. Led to a lot of stats for Desvits. Patrick, he had six targets. Three of those were actually deep. But the problem is that the offense was hideous. Ryan Tannehill averaged negative 0.10, passing net expected points for Drop Back. He said negative 0.03 without Derek Henry. RBS do matter. How worried are you about this Titans offense right now? I mean, it's kind of a simple question because I'm worried enough for I'm not going to play them. And I was already only looking at AJ Brown anyway, even in like this really good potential matchup in a spot where they should have, you know, played from ahead, been efficient. That basically the same case I made for the 49ers this week. Like, oh, they should, they might have some concerns, but they should play efficiently and that's good for DFS. I don't really feel that with the Titans here. This is not going to help by any means. Yeah. Their backfields a mess. Dantro Hilliard was the guy for them this week, played over 60% of snaps, had 10 targets. We thought it might be Deontay Forman. He and Adrian Peterson are just run only options. So there's nobody in his offense. If you take AJ Brown off the field, that I would even consider for like minimum salary. Yeah. I think that like if we're talking about guys to monitor here, it would be Fitzpatrick because like, we know what Nick Westbrook Akinae is. It's not usable for DFS. Fitzpatrick actually did get some downfield targets. He got drafted for a reason. He got cut for a reason too. So like there is that to consider, but like he got drafted. Like that's worth something. So I don't know. I'm not going to use him, but like I'll keep an eye on him. I hope AJ Brown's healthy because like, I don't want this offense to be totally dust, but also it's kind of weird the offense collapse when Derek Henry leaves. Also, maybe they should have used Derek Henry more and Marcus Mario is there. Maybe Marcus Mario wouldn't have sucked as well. Anyway. Michael Carter left with an ankle injury. He did not return for the Jets. Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman both played about a third of the snaps. So likely a two man committee on a bad offense versus a three man committee. They're relevant for season long, but not DFS. Do you agree or can we move on? I think we, I think I agree. We just move on from here. Okay. Miles Sanders returned for the Eagles played 46% of the snaps. Jordan Howard left earlier the knee injury. Sanders set a season high with 16 rush attempts. Top 70 yards and scrimmage to the first time since week one. He had some issues in this game and probably would have had worse numbers had Howard not gotten hurt. We hate committees branded, but there is a chance that Sanders role expands as he gets further removed from the injury. And they're actually running the football now whereas they were not previously. So what is your interest level on Jordan Howard? Sorry. Miles Sanders right now grim, grim Freudian slip. Yeah. I mean, my view on him is just like, I'm going to monitor the situation. That's really all I can say because I'm not there enough where I would actively target Miles Sanders on a full DFS slate at this point. I'm trying to pull up there since week seven. I have this filtered a little bit. So I got a vamp for one second. Non-garbage time stat since week seven, which is when we really saw a shift from them. Their pass rates 39%. League average is 58%. They're the only team below 47%. And again, that looks at your passes and, passes and rushes only whenever you're pre snap win probabilities between 20 and 80%. So when the game is winnable, they don't want to throw the ball. That helps. But not throwing the ball doesn't really make me feel like the efficiency is coming. Yeah. Unless you're an extremely efficient offense, like rushing offense, which they have been. But this is like, we can nitpick here, but like this feels like Ravens of old, which I mentioned last week. Like I'm not really looking to play committee backs even in run heavy offenses that might be efficient, especially with Jalen Hertz being a, you know, it's like Lamar Jackson. It's a goal line too. Sometimes just. I think the Ravens comp is a really good one. And like last week, does that make Miles Sanders like JK Dobbins? And we were really itchy to use JK Dobbins, right? Yeah, like that's kind of the vibe I'm getting from here where the, well, he could get 18 carries, one, two targets. You get a hundred yards and a touchdown and not burn you for not using him. And he can get vultured at the goal line, especially if Jordan Howard does come back because we don't know that, but also Jalen Hertz phenomenal at the goal line too. So wait and see approach. If they deviate to where Sanders gets a larger share, cool for right now. No, like we're okay. Waiting just because like sharing work, not getting passing game volume and could give altered by his own quarterback with three rushing touchdowns this past week. So yes, that is a legit concern. Imagine thinking six weeks ago that Jamal Agnew getting her would be noteworthy. It is. He heard his hip and left early for the Jaguars. It's a Jag. So might not matter. Marvin Jones did lead with six targets. Marv is generally the one guy targetable for DFS. So are you tempted by Marv now that 60% of the targets are up for grabs with Jamal Agnew being potentially missing time? I've wanted to be in on Marv all season, but he's got one game. So you had 25% of the targets in week 11. He's got one game with greater than 25% of the targets and four games with at least 20% of the targets. So I thought that I thought early on this might be that one of the teams that I could just be like, you know what, they're going to be trailing. I can bring it back with Marvin Jones. He's going to be in the low 6,000s every single week, but he's going to have high end upside. We haven't seen that. I don't think it's enough for me to want to chase Marv, but it would depend on the salary because we've been very low on value at receiver. So I would say if he's below 6,000, I would consider it if he's like 64 or 62 or something. I still don't think I can get there. What about you? I think if he's like 56, I'll be tempted because they're facing Atlanta and that's like a good match. If he's 59, that's fine. It's because of Thanksgiving. We only have two teams on by. We have only two teams on by with the Cardinals and Chiefs. But I know with the Thanksgiving slate, we got a 10 game main slate. So that just takes potentially two to four teams out of conversation for value. So we'll do our salary scroll, but Marv might be one of the more appealing value plays among receivers. So that's kind of where I am with him. Yeah. You might be right. I hope you're not. You might be right though. I really hope you're not. We haven't had value receivers on 12 weeks lately. I know. It's a bummer. So let's move now to role changes from week number 11. Talk about Cam Newton played every snap at quarterback for the Panthers, which was cool to see. He was 21 of 27 for a buck 89 and two touchdowns in his two games with Carolina. Cam is at 0.12 passing that expected points for drop back with a 59% passing success rate. 12 carries for 60 yards and two touchdowns in that time. They ran one play from inside the 10. It was a passing touchdown to DJ Moore inside the 10 to pass two games. Newton has two passes for two touchdowns and a one out of five carries. They were pretty run heavy in this game. Early down first half passer was 41%. So how do you view Cam and his impact on this offense after seeing him as a starter for a full game here? I mean, overall it's up from. From PJ Walker and Sam Darnold. Yeah. For sure. I want to make that part very clear. I still never liked to target teams where they can just have like run heavy tendencies. It's just never, it's not the recipe for me, for big DFS production, even for running backs, because if your team throws the ball a lot and efficiently, then you get into red zone chances. And that's where I mean, look, carries from the 40 or the, if you want to look at it from a 100 yards standpoint carries from like the 65 yard line away from the goal line. If you're not really worth anything extra, running back carries only get added value closer to the goal line and really like inside the 10. So that's what you want for running backs. You want efficient offenses that run the ball or that throw the ball plenty. So that's still going to hold me back on this offense. But like, I wanted to caveat it with the fact that like, I'm way more into this offense now, I'm still not necessarily going to get there to like DJ more, unless the salary remains low. And even then I'd be worried about the pass rate. So they get Miami. As we mentioned next week, what salary would you be looking for for DJ more to be interested? Realistically like 67, I think, like nobody's ever in that. Like, I feel like nobody, Fandle might like sign some agreement where nobody can be like 64 and like 68 this year. They put T Higgins there this week, which forced me to use him and I'm mad about it. Like very bad. Is it just one time I talk myself into that fake player? Is it just me or like, wasn't that the, hasn't that historically been like the range where like, we played all of our receivers? Like, like 62 to 68, the guys who are like, we're just a little bit under salary for like, with good roles who didn't produce. I think that's gone. It was Corey Davis this week. Yeah. That's not what we're looking for at that range. Yeah. DJ more is $6,700. That's fair. That's what I said, man. Yeah, that's cool. That's good stuff. Yeah. What about Cam? Enough there for you to get into camera now? Um, so they're going to be on that 10 game slate, trying to find their, they're on the road, one point spread. I mean, every team seems to have a bad implied team total next week. Um, I could get there depending on that salary. So what salary are you thinking for Newton? And then I'll give my thoughts. So I saw it and I'm disgusted. Is it like, I looked at other quarterbacks and I, this is the most awful quarterbacks late that I've ever seen in my entire life. That's terrible. Based on that, then I would assume he's got to be like 79. If that was your reaction, 8,000 baby. I don't know if I'm quite there yet. Of course, we'll do our salary scroll and get a better feel for quarterback, but if implied team totals are low, um, no home team has an implied team total above 25 and a half. And the only road team that's there is Tampa Bay. Yuck. Um, I am not excited about that slate. It's, that's bad. I have to watch the taste out of my mouth because I'm just like shocked at how bad quarterback is. I think like with Cam, I'm not crossing him off, but I'm not actively seeking him out at that high of a salary. I can, I would only cross him off. I'm only not crossing off because such a bad slate for quarterback. Otherwise I would probably cross him off. I have to reserve my thoughts for the salary scroll, but I think at least off to bump him up a little bit for what will be the best Jersey game of the week. Panthers, dolphins. Yeah. No, I kind of like, is this a stupid? Is it stupid to like the Seahawks jerseys? I don't like them. Okay. I like them back when I was like 15. I'm still a 15 year old though. So like I kind of 15 year old with a head of a 48 year old. They should go back to the like the Kelly Green. No. Look at that. Stop that. Stop it. I would, if I continue. Kelly Green is so boring. Ugh. What's wrong with you? Anyway, as if Devo Samuel was not mind boggling enough. He had eight carries this week. Continue with the role changes. 79 yards in a touchdown because he's also the best running back in football in addition to being the best receiver. He had just two targets on 22 routes because he was a running back from the game. So it's a weird as F role. So like how do we, how is this to value him in this spot right now? That I don't know because anytime you could get guaranteed work from a receiver, you want to take it, especially from a player as good as Devo where you get in the ball and he just can can make things happen. But you also don't. I mean, are we, are we considering the fact that he's going to get eight to 10 carries every game? I think it depends on Eli Mitchell. If Eli Mitchell is back, I would expect it to be closer to like two or three. So also targets. So also we're looking at basically 10 yards a carry in a touchdown on those eight carries. Sustainable. For him. Thank you. So I just struggled with that because I still want, and I don't have the, this is poetry, but I don't have his downfield targets pulled up at this point for this week. He had one actually. Like, I don't know what his receiving workload looked like because I was too drawn into the rush. Yeah. So he had two total targets. He had the only deep target. He had two targets. Because Jimmy went through deep. I hate this team. I hated so much. His ADOT was 27.5 yards. Sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry. His ADOT was 13.8. He had 27.5 yards. Okay. So how do I value that? I sincerely think he bumped that down. Like from what his early season role was. I would wrap it up for sure. Like, and to the point where I don't know if I can really justify Debo if I'm paying sort of top salary and his, I don't know what a salary will be because he did score. They're facing Minnesota next week, which is not a bad game. Name that salary on Debo. This is going to be like a sound bite one. But assuming that he has a role similar to this next week, like Eli Mitchell's out and we think that he might be more used as a running back, maybe get like a minimal target workload because we did see like Brandon IU had seven targets. It wasn't that they did not throw the ball at all. It was that Debo wasn't really a wide receiver so much as IU, although Debo did run 92% of their routes, but like they use them differently. Given that, I would say like 69. I would say like 7,000. It's like about the same. If Mitchell were to play, I would say Debo is more like 72, 73, just because like the target has got bumped down with IU being more relevant and kill being back. Yeah. He's 8,000 though. Geez, oh man. I don't think I can touch that. This is not like there's no value in this, but a Debo rush attempt has been worth 0.5 expected points per carry this year, which is like would be the best per drop back number in football. So maybe Debo should be a running back. Question mark. That's wild. Imagine if you were on the couch for a few people like, oh my gosh, Zeke is terrible. Debo is the best thing that's ever happened, not factoring in the way they're used. Anyway, different tangent. Other thing worth noting here in case Eli Mitchell does miss is that Jeff Wilson had 19 carries and two targets, 58% snap rate. He almost scored a touchdown, but Garoppolo sucks and missed him. He was wide open. But also like the role was not that good. So like he could have done better, but like the role is kind of just okay. Lost a lot of work to Debo. Lost some work obviously to like use check and guys like that. You check at two targets, trace sermon ads and carries too. So I would say I'm lower on Jeff Wilson now than I was. What about you? This one hurts because I lock buttoned Jeff Wilson. The, I'm going to call him the X. I'm past V lookup. I'm onto the X lookup, but he's the X lookup ruiner because he goes by Jeffrey Wilson, Jeffrey Wilson Jr. Jeff Wilson sometimes. So it's not that he goes by that. It's just how he's lifted. But this, that's hurts me to say, but my expected Vandal points model had him at 15.2 yesterday. So that comes around like 12, had he caught the touchdown? Yeah. He also that next play had a rush to came up short. And they, for whatever reason, like we're throwing fades to who is it? Trent Williams or something like. That's one of the best tackles in football. That's more concerning. I think the workload was honestly fine. I don't know. I'd have to look deeper at his snap rate in the first half or like his workload just in the first half cause Trace sermon came in and played some sermon got some work in the first half too. I was pretty surprised by that. But I mean, so here's the thing. That's what the 49ers do. Yeah. They're similar to the Ravens in that like they don't really play anyone. Well, no, the difference is I didn't expect sermon to get any work because they've shown they don't trust him at all. And that factored into my expectations for Jeff Wilson because they didn't think they would use sermon because they've been so like college and hand like literally said, like I'm not changing his role in a press conference is weak because he's like hates him. And cause Shannon is a perpetual liar. And I should have known, hey, like expect sermon to play more than he's played the entire year now. So like, I think, I don't know. I hope you like Mitchell comes back so I can just ignore them again. So Wilson had 14 first half rush attempts and he had ended with 19 sermon at four. Wilson had two first half targets sermon had one. So I do have in the first half. Five for 47 and a touchdown. Yeah. So Wilson had like 60% the rush attempts. 14 of 23 that would be 55 somewhere around there. 61% Okay. Yeah. That's not ideal for 5,000. I don't regret it. No, I don't regret it either. I'm saying I'm not using going forward. Yeah. So I mean, they're on the main slate. They have to be the salary for for Wilson. If we assume no, you lie, Mitchell. 63. So 58. Okay. So the mega chalk with paired with the bad results wasn't enough. Okay. I would maybe again, we'll have to do the salary scroll. Look at a more holistic view. I think the workload was at least promising enough at 58 in what should be a good game, one of the best games of the week from early assumptions here. Low enough where I would not cross them off. Yes. I agree. Clyde Edwards E-Lair returned and played a, I would say decent role given he just came off IR. He played 46% of the snaps, but led the team with 12 carries. Also had two targets turned that into 76 yards. Darrell Williams was still involved, but CH's role could expand as he gets further moved from the injury. They have a buy this week. Coming out of the buy, would you consider CH as like an assumption that his role expands or that's going to depend wholly on his salary because he's been one of the most salary sensitive or salary dependent plays since he joined the Chiefs for me. It's whenever you get him at, you know, like 64, 63 one week and the game is awesome and you're like, okay, he can get there. But if that creeps up close to 7000 then even with losing some of some key running backs right now, I can't quite get there because the 7000 range has been pretty decent for running back lately. So yeah, I think that that one's going to come down just to the salary because I don't think his role is going to be massively different than what Clyde Edwards E-Lair's ceiling has been. Like 65 ish, do you think is probably appropriate? I would say that. Yeah. And anything much above that, I couldn't anticipate many spots where I would play him. I agree. Jamal Williams returned this week for the Lions and DeAndre Swift played 72% of the snaps. Handled 14 out of 23 running back carries. He had four to five targets. So that was that. Tim Boyle played and he was terrible. So slight downgrade for the role for DeAndre Swift. Big downgrade for the quarterback. How confident are you about DeAndre Swift entering Thursday on a short slate? So is golf out for Thursday? For sure. Yes. Likely. That's what Shafter said. Yeah. That's what it seemed like. So I mean the snap rate was about the same as what we've seen from Swift with Jamal. It's been about a 70-30 split. It came down from 93% whenever Swift said all of his career highs with no context needed, I guess. But in overtime, no less. But the offensive efficiency is extremely bad. Tim Boyle was at a negative 0.37 past net expected points per dropback. I don't think there are many in number fires database for a full season that really compared to that. I think one comes to mind, but I'm not going to say it for Jim's sake. Jared Goff is a rookie. I think he was like a minus 0.44. I think it might be exactly that number. Okay. But again, it's a one-game sample for him, but I don't think there's a whole lot of reason to believe that he'll bounce back up. Yeah, yeah. And in an extremely meaningful way. It can't really stay that low, but I don't think it'll get to the point where it's relevant. So that really hurts Swift. Now, he did produce still, which you like to see. But boy, from a process standpoint, that's tough. Again, though 130-plus yards rushing the past two games, that's still going to keep a salary high for Thanksgiving. We won't play name that salary unless you really want to for the game site, just because it's kind of strange. I have no idea what to say for a salary, though, because it's such a great workload, even with William Zeenback in such a terrible offense. Like, that's tough. I won't compare him to D-Ernest. Wolf. Just for anyone who doesn't know, I didn't like this game a lot. But under the assumption Nick Chubb would have been out, I didn't like this game. It was a joke about the offense. Throw and shot to Baker Mayfield. Bad offense. Way to the original. Troll. I think that it's a pretty big downgrade for Swift, both to have Jamal, and to have really bad quarterback play. Now, Jamal on over on D-Ernest, I don't think it's going to be a good game. Jamal over on YouTube asked why wouldn't they just play David Blau? That might not be worse. That's potential. You're not going to project them at negative .37, passing unexpected points for dropback. Maybe there's room for upside if it's Blau. I've not dug back into what Blau's done previously in spot duty. Was it last year he played on Thanksgiving? I think it was two years ago. Stafford had 16 injuries last year and played through all of them. I think it was two years ago. All the Thanksgiving slates blend together for me. They do. It wouldn't be worse if they went Blau. At least there's that. I don't know. That's the kind of stuff we can't really assume. I would just have to think I'd have to assume that with 130 plus rushing yards in consecutive games that's going to keep Swift salary higher than what we would feel comfortable with. So we're going to have to come down to like is he going to overperform once more or do we try to let people kind of go there and assume that that will regress back to normal. Swift or Zeke for you? I think that's Zeke, especially with the injuries too. So we're going to come down Dallas's defense. Sorry, their offense. It's still way higher than what we're expecting from Detroit. It's a little vindication for me as a former golf truth though. It could always be worth Detroit. It could always be worse. Some of the Patriots backfield with Damien Harris back. It was a committee again. Shocker. Harris did lead in snaps at 41%. But Ramondres Evenson led in carries. He had 12 compared to Harris's 10. First half carries favored Harris 5 to 3. Harris also had a first half target. So I think Ramondres playing well enough where he's not going to go away, which means at best well, no, I don't know. I think that based on assumptions, this is a three-person committee where Bolden still gets some passing game work. Stevenson gets a little bit of passing game work and some carries and I don't want to target that type of committee. What about you? Yeah, that's going to be a no for me dog. This is the type of backfield that you don't really play in DFS. The path to a ceiling becomes so, so narrow and that path for Damien Harris is still there. But it's literally an efficient rushing day with kind of walking into touchdowns and that's not what I'm banking on. I know I love Matt Jones in this offense, but like it's a fine offense. It's not like earth shattering. So I think that Harris will be a little bit more beloved within this offense than I would view him as. Matt Jones this year is a 0.07 passing that expected points per drop back for comparison to a tongue of Iloa is that I'm going to guess 0.13 I'm pulling it up 0.17 So two is that almost double or he is double Matt Jones like people have got a little out over the skis on all Mac here and even a Damien Harris is efficient. If he's efficient on 11 carries, it doesn't matter. So like I think this team sucks. It's kind of like Hunter Henry basically. Yeah, he's just been overperforming so much. Yeah. I was almost going to make this just a thing to monitor. He did kind of hold off Johnny Smith. Their market shares have actually been really similar lately even in the red zone. But it's been like Hunter Henry catching all the touchdowns. I think it was 17 to 6 in routes and a run heavy script this week. But yeah, Matt Jones is underperformed expectation if you adjust for his opponent's face. So like again, I think that my perception of this is not as high as other people's. Yep. Matt Breida got some work for the bills this past week and made it a 3-man committee. Devin Singletary loaded a 37% snap rate and a negative script. Breida played 32% and Zach Moss played 30%. Breida didn't play a lot in the first half. Did play a lot in the second half. So we generally just cross them off but they play Thanksgiving. Small slate. Rough. Can you consider any of them even on a slate? I say no. I don't think so. Good. Let's move on. Let's move on then. He actually cashed in with a 75 yard touchdown too. If we look at the full games with Aaron Rodgers, Devontae Adams leads with 34% of the team's targets. MBS is at 18%. MBS has 42% of the deep targets with Devontae at 33%. Is that high enough Brandon where you shift the way you view MBS or is he still very boomer busty with the busty outweighing the boomy? Okay. Sorry. That was just the three podcasts. That was a classic gym. So the bust potential is high for virtually every receiver even studs who get a higher target share. The difference with MBS as I would view him historically is he's a high eight dot receiver which for me means he's going to get you two to three targets with a high eight on those and that's not enough. Even if you sell yourself on the fact that he cashes in on one of those for a long touchdown give him a 60 yard touchdown and that's all he does. That's not really enough even at a value salary like build around because the probability of that is very low. So he's moving more into like a high air yards receiver where if you give him volume with still a high eight dot even if that eight dot regresses back closer to the position average of around 10.7 that's a good workload especially within this offense. So it's all coming down to volume here. I'm a little bit nervous still that he would fall back to like a two to three target workload but I would say that's the case for every non-elite receiver anyway. So I might as well play him within a good offense. So that's kind of where I am with MBS definitely viewing this as a positive trend. He had six short targets on Sunday. It's pretty good. He's kind of shifting into like a Manny Sanders type role and we targeted Manny right at least at $5,800 this week didn't work out but I was okay going there. I would say like $56, $58 is an appropriate seller for MBS. Do you agree? Yeah, he's $56. I think that's a great salary. Maybe we will have some other options. MBS or Marvin Jones? MBS. Yeah. Yeah. We'll leave that there. Eric Ebron really ate into Pat Fryermuth's role last night. Fryermuth played 55% of the snaps and Ebron is at 46%. Fryermuth ran a route on less than half the team's drop backs. He still had seven targets and a touchdown but I'm probably going to be avoiding Fryermuth in DFS at the time being. Do you agree? I mean we can only nitpick so much at tight end. We won't have Travis Kelsey. We won't have Zach Hertz next week. We'll have six teams on Thursday so it'll depend on the slate. I don't think I'm quite into soft territory but definitely not someone who I'm viewing as trending up at this point. It would need to be a really bad slate for me to use him. I think is where I'm at. It might be. It might be. Yeah, that's true. Let's move into the situations to monitor other notes you had from this week. Brandon, what stood out to you? Brandon Ayuk, something I've been monitoring. He led the 49ers with seven targets 85 yards and a touchdown over the past three games with George Kittle back. Both Ayuk and Kittle have a 25% target share. Debo's down at 21%. I know Debo had a role change this week specifically tied to Eli Mitchell's injury but Debo's been trending back down with Ayuk trending up. I think Ayuk is quite interesting. I named him as a love on the Thursday show which is not like a pat on the back but I've liked him enough before this week and I think this week made it even better for me. Mike Williams had a big touchdown on Sunday night that we'll all remember but he had a 15% target share. He had fewer deep targets than Keenan Allen 3-5. This is now 3-2 out of the 5. This is now 5 straight games with a target share below 20%. I comp him to any take your pick of the 2020 Indianapolis Colts because we were always on, did anyone have a 20% target share in this game? And they rarely did and that's kind of where Mike Williams is, which is terrible. You see as Justin Herbert is his quarterback. Yes. Do you want a 17% target share from any player? Unless it's like MBS at 56? Okay. So that's where we are with Mike Williams and as much as you want to explain away like what's going on or that it'll get better it's been getting worse since the beginning of the season. Deontay Johnson has a 30% target share since week 6 and that makes him one of three active receivers with a rate that high Cooper cups at 31% and again Darno Amuni at 30%. This is more of a I'd liked Deontay but I think I was always too low on Deontay I think his role is a lot better than I give him credit for so I'm kind of turning myself around on Deontay. Looks like you want to say something. He finally topped 100 yards the first time since week 2. That's good. Yeah, that's kind of the thing but I don't know. He sent me 100 dollars like that's actually a fair salary. That's a good salary. That's his imperfections. Yeah. Okay. And then I mentioned this already but Deontra was the Titan's back so I don't think we can look at this back for it at all and find any DFS value. Thank goodness. One less back field to consider I am in. As far as stuff that stood out to me in the first game off the COVID list Nick Chubb had 22 carries. He also 2 targets including a 5 yard receiving touchdown not bumping him up yet but like you know that wasn't bad for sure. In general we like to ignore the Baltimore backfield but Deontay Freeman kind of had an okay day on Sunday. He had 16 carries and 6 targets and he had 80 total yards. He had 2 out of 5 red zone chances. I'm not very yet but I'm at least keeping an eye on him right now. Yeah I would say Baltimore they've morphed into now a 2 back committee with Latavius and Freeman instead of a 3 back committee Tyson Williams played some special teams but didn't play on offense at all so you give me that you're bumping Freeman up into like from a 40% cap of snaps to like 60% and I had some stat where like they've given one back in a single game like better than a 65% snap rate since like 2016 it's crazy if he's up there it's at least worth considering maybe on some smaller slates. He's look decent too so that doesn't hurt. He has. Yeah. In the 3 games with touchdown Trevor Symmian starting probably to change the nickname. Adam Troutman leads with 19% of the team's targets. He also had 2 deep targets Sunday after having 2 of the entire year before this as long as the salary stays low I can consider him in the right spots and Thursday maybe the right spot so Troutman at least on the radar for me Josh Jacobs quietly had good passing game usage not just on Sunday but also recently he had 7 targets Sunday he now has at least 4 each of his past 3 games it just hasn't mattered because the offense has been so dysfunctional without Henry Ruggs so I think it's worth noting especially the small slate of coming that he's getting passing game work and I don't mind that so keeping on Josh Jacobs and T Higgins is fake he disappointed in the one week he was glad to kind of trust him I had like 18% it wasn't like a lot but like I had stayed away the entire year until now and then I gave in and then he was terrible he had 3 targets, Tyler Boyd at 8 Jamar Chase at 6 so I'm pretending he doesn't exist because he doesn't but even more the T Higgins guy are you also with me in just pretending that he's not there T Higgins was the type of play where you have a certain amount of salary left and you cannot get back up but you also and that's like that has some value this year I think the process leading you to T Higgins that game could have had a lot more potential that offense put up points I still think that T Higgins was viable but he wasn't really a lock button play either he was just kind of he was there I'll move to philosophical changes and we noticed this past week but the second straight week Washington was super run heavy they had 9 passes to 15 rushes on early downs in the first half Antonio Gibson was on the bench for a bit he had a fumble couldn't tell if he was hurt or if he was being benched for the fumble but still finished with 19 carries for 95 yards I'm still not even on Gibson but it's also worth noting this lowers me on Terry McLauren if they're going to be so run heavy so how is this altering your view of Gibson, McLauren, etc on this Washington offense it is there an etc that's fair you're right it's been Terry McLauren or not and most likely most often it's been not I still think this is reason to say not to Terry but name a salary for me for Terry McLauren 52 I don't know I'm kidding they must have a prime time game next week they're facing Seattle that's a Monday night game woof why we flex that game to a buy for both teams instead I like my Monday night back let's pretend that game is not happening so Terry has 8 and 7 targets in the 2 run heavy games 7 the game before that he was hurt for part of the game last week he had that shoulder injury but like I don't know like 63 I know that'll be too low but I mean it's based on the team trends and everything it's like he's phenomenal he's one of my favorite receivers I can get him on a good team that would be fun he's the new Allen Robinson I'm just glad I don't have to worry about him maybe we'll learn more for them on Monday we're not going to speaking to the Seahawks they play Monday night they're also trying to establish it what a bad game there was talk during the week of Pete Carroll saying hey we gotta run the ball more and they did they run from the first half they were at 13 passes and 6 rushes last week so I have been okay with Lockett and Metcalf I used them again this week I'm still going to be okay with them because the target shares are so good and the talent is so good and Lockett was good this week but like it decreases my willingness slash excitement to chase them not totally out but it does increase my hesitance what about you I sincerely have no ulterior motive explain to me the difference then between Tyler Lockett and Terry McCormack one is a good quarterback except he's playing bad yes like poor quarterback play right now and they want to run the ball so like to you is it just the potential for Russ and by extension do you just view Tyler Lockett as maybe better than Terry yes and yes it felt like a natural follow up after the conversation we just had I put McCormack to 63 I put Lockett I think 68 is still appropriate for him so it's not a huge gap I mean the thing is I'm with you but for anyone listening and sometimes I've pointed out that there are some things in your process that seem to be a little different from what I've learned from you and I just wanted to reach it what's the one this week Nick Chubb was good so I was right I'm gonna take the so okay did you give up okay that's good I mean if Yarnis Johnson is now just Nick Chubb he's better when there's no Nick Chubb yeah he's better you would have had 160 yards as opposed to 120 any other philosophical changes for you no I pulled pace numbers I pulled pass rate numbers at this point we've seen a lot of teams kind of lock into what they're doing for the most part we've seen some like up and down blips in teams with recent stuff but that's really about it yeah the jets are still pass heavy back Wilson might be back this weekend Houston actually we should probably talk about Elijah Moore I missed him my bad he actually played most of the snaps this week which hadn't been happening previously like his salary is a bit too high at 64 but I'm not as often as I was previously he set a 21% target to the Cory Davis being back I'm not like rushing to use him but I'm also not out 64 is kind of high where do you see Elijah Moore at that salary um so he played 85% of snaps back on week one and then 77% a week two and then like leading into this this game it's been like 60 and then 80% this week he almost speaking of like the T Higgins range he was almost the guy just kind of was like well I can't get back up anywhere like I'm there's it just doesn't it's not possible there's only so much salary to go around and I almost clicked on him at 59 so he was in that conversation I don't think that would you say 64 is what he was well he is this week 59 or whatever 59 this past week so that's not like a big enough change where I'm like would not be able to consider him especially with an increase in snap rate he's also good um so he might wind up being someone who like I rostered depending on how my lineup works out next week I agree I wouldn't be shocked when we scrolled you want to start with Thanksgiving or the main slate um probably makes sense that we start with Thanksgiving right I don't want to look at it okay we'll do we can do the main slate then no let's do let's do Thanksgiving let's get out of the way let's start quarterback so Josh Allen is 88 Dak Prescott 82 and the next one is Derek Carr at 74 I might have to use 80 Dalton I hate it 72 um yeah so I think Josh Allen given Dak Prescott's teammate injuries just has to be the number one quarterback even though we have concerns with them you still have Dak number one mm-hmm okay so again it's those two and a clear tier above and that's a very very like easy thing to say I'm not saying but I'll run the numbers and I'll see how likely it is that those guys are the top scorers at the position that kind of stuff or at least surpass certain marks the big discrepancy is going to be the frequency of slates that I simulate where other quarterbacks can get like to 25 Vandal points because if Josh Allen puts up 30 or Dak puts up 30 and even the value guys get you like 18 20 that even with accounting for salary that might not necessarily be enough to overcome so other thing is um if Allen and Prescott don't come up like there's only two guys who can burn you so if either if they both fail which is possible then there's a wiggle room that's the yeah so that's the you gotta the probability of that that happening which I'll post floor ceiling simulations in some range of outcome numbers where do you post that it's a website called numberfire.com we have other content as well thank you for bringing that up for the first time you're welcome running back Alvin Camara is 9000 if he plays was 9000 either way so David Montgomery to 75 I still think he's a guy I want to be in on the play but that's higher than I was expecting um the role was decent the production wasn't yeah that's a good recipe for playing him on Thanksgiving I got three game slate yeah ZKD Swift at 8000 or Montgomery at 75 if Boyle plays Montgomery if golf plays I probably go Swift yeah okay Mark Ingram if Camara can't go at $6600 he might be the biggest focal points on the slate he would be I think at Salar he would be the RB1 of that right I think I agree yeah because it drops off after him it drops off a lot to MVP candidate Tony Pollard at 59 yeah if we don't have we're not going to have any running backs from Buffalo so realistically we got Zeke let's assume Camara's out Zeke, Swift, Montgomery, Jacobs, Ingram we got five backs we considered would you consider Tony Pollard um I think I'd have to sell myself on a run heavy script and then by extension not play Dak as much yeah and just say they're going to feature both running backs Dak's not going to do a whole lot it's within Pollard's range of outcomes to be like in the optimal so maybe I think he'll be much more popular than his optimal odds are agreed, agreed let's move to Wide Receiver nobody so Stefan Diggs is 83 next two receivers are CD Land and Mara Cooper probably not going to play and then it's Darnell Mooney at $6800 the one who stands out to me is Michael Gallup at $65 he might be close like in every lineup type guy I could see that um I think if I get Andy Dalton I might have that sounds dumb Mooney or Gallup that's what I was going to say I might trust the market share not on these two guys I love them both let me bait you I would never bet against Michael Gallup fair enough Hunter Renfro at $62 not the type of play I usually go for but oh it's like the Adrian Peterson Thanksgiving where you have like two touchdowns oh gosh that's so gross Trayquan Smith 59 has been he's got 21% of the targets in the past two games without Camara it's actually tied with Mark Ingram to lead the team so Bill's secondary receivers are interesting and I'm saying secondary because I think that Cole Beasley is also in this discussion he's been really banged up and that has led to a decrease in his role um did have five targets this past week but with Marshawn Latimer playing well and I'd assume he'd be on Stefan Diggs that does not mean don't use Stefan Diggs but it does free up some additional targets for the secondary guys which would mean some more for Manny some more for Beasley I think that makes them interesting a 58-57 to me at least it does for sure especially with the Latimer situation and we've seen Stefan Diggs be just kind of a kind of like a 1A among a three headed receiver trio that has changed the past two games but it wouldn't surprise me if Diggs gets a 20% target share and they spread the ball out a little bit more to the other options some with you there I think this Buffalo New Orleans game might have it's very easily going to be number two for everybody but I might just be a little bit more contrarian and try to put that first we'll talk more about that uh on Tuesday November 23rd thank you Marcus Callaway's got a lot of downfield targets yeah he'd be in place Cedric Wilson 56 I think is going to be like we're probably not going to need those salary savings but I'll take them and we'll talk more about like slate strategy and how much salary feel comfortable leaving on the table which honestly probably as much as we want because like you're going to get to the point where like do I play Darno Mooney or Stefan Diggs like do I have that much salary left a lot of people will just click on Stefan Diggs if they can get there and I'm not saying I like Darno Mooney more than Stefan Diggs straight up but it's a game theory situation on a three game slate if Goff were to play Josh Reynolds led the lions and routes run at 22 this past week he had three targets did not catch any of them also all downfield yeah so like you know again we're not going to need the salary savings but he probably the lions top receiver not top past catcher but top receiver uh so that's that uh tight end we're probably going to be on waller locks we're probably the salary to get there right yeah I think the conversation will then have to be waller versus the field and Stiggs uh Stefan Diggs versus the field like what gap is bigger yeah probably still Stefan Diggs for like sheer and upside but we have notable names we've got Hawkinson Schultz Dawson Knox Adam Trotman it's not it's I don't think it's shaping up to be a week where we get a tight end in the 4000 range that we can know so we're going to need to allocate some salary to tight end yeah the bills did run some screens for Dawson Knox as we can get 10 targets maybe he's also in that like discussion of like benefiting from maybe one or two targets leaving Stefan Diggs due to Marshawn Lattimore and going elsewhere maybe he's in that discussion too he might be the assuming we get Tim Boyle he might be the the tight end to for me behind waller Tim or Schultz I think Schultz might be a hair higher for me potentially I would assume Schultz just has more popularity but it's early fair enough ready to go to the main slate yes I am okay starting off the quarterback gross Jalen Hurts ooh you weren't lying highest salaried quarterback for week number 12 on the main slate 8400 he has 24 23 17 14 pass attempts maxed out at 178 passing yards the past four games of course the reason that we love Jalen Hurts is the rushing he's got at least seven carries in those past four games when they've become more run heavy at least 55 rushing yards in all four of those games so like that's the appeal for Hurts but even with that rushing and here's the thing I say this a lot like the dual threat quarterbacks have to be a dual threat quarterback like Cam Newton to me he's not really a dual threat quarterback because he doesn't have the passing even with those rushing yards Hurts has 30.78 Fandal points because he scored three times on the ground 19.62 16.68 and 11.22 like if you throw the ball if you only throw 450 yards that's not necessarily enough unless you're running for like 100 plus and guaranteed touchdown. Hurts getting 30 this week was the first time he scored 30 all year and he had three rushing touchdowns wild, wild so keep that in mind. I think Brady at 82 is far more appealing facing Indy on the road in a dome that's good people may be afraid of targeting Indy because they just shut down the powerful bills but the powerful bills are not powerful so doesn't bother me too much I think Brady stands out there the Rams Green Bay game is interesting but like not I don't know I know that Roger's lit up the Viking thousand a dome he was kind of hurt with his toe I probably wouldn't get there I don't think yeah Stafford at 77 is somewhat appealing but he's also playing outdoors on the road is there like a Matthew Stafford non Thanksgiving revenge game or is he like or is he like is there a hangover because he gets like to eat turkey for once who could say who can say I'll think about that though it's a good question this is Joe Burrow 71 if make up it's Patrick and T.J. Waugh can't play again I could talk myself into that is this will sound how it sounds but what's the difference between this at this specific point to Rod Taylor and Jim and her I well just hurts runs a lot more yeah twice that's fair that's why it yeah I just yeah I don't got a lot from this geez oh man Ryan T.A. Nail has been really bad Matt Ryan is my guy but he's been hey man the long-term sample is actually quite good he was awful this past week he was awful the week before too okay three of the past four he's been bad let's go to running back JT is 98 CMC 97 as you said before both very fair Dalvin Cook is 81 why is his salary going down he had 22 carries and 4 targets this week um probably I don't know what it's just like popularity numbers were should have been should have been still under everything actually I don't actually know what I thought okay what else stands out to you Seguan 75 depending on the role he has Monday night um AJ Dillon went down to 69 I could see that just again it's not it's a lot of like results based stuff that has to factor and I would assume yeah so here's the thing though with quarterback being what it is we're going to have almost an extra thousand in salary from what we typically would allocate just because you and I play higher salary quarterbacks very very frequently yeah so it might be a by Wednesday at this point because it's Thanksgiving week it might be a week where I'm like trying to figure out how to get three of the superstar running backs in the lineup I hope so I miss those weeks with um but I still think AJ Dillon is very playable there yeah if if Johnson play it's supposed to be like a one to two week injury they have a buy coming upside bet they sit him but the 6000 range is extremely bleak there are two four six eight backs with the six in front of their salary I wouldn't play any of them aside from Dylan I would I would consider Mitchell if he's going to go but I'm not playing Damian Harris at 6000 they're not playing Miles Sanders at 61 right now Jeff Wilson is 58 which you had mentioned before totally fine especially seeing the 6000 range and how bad that is totally fine I'll just I'll mention this because I've seen him in some waiver wire recommendations Rex Burkhead at 57 had 18 carries but he was still out snapped by I know he was out snapped by David Johnson two straight weeks and this was after Burkhead had out snapped David Johnson so like he kind of had his chance and then the team went back to David Johnson a bit more so I would not like I think at this point in the year sometimes it's easy to be like hey this is like a waiver wire guy who's getting a lot of work and he's at a very low salary but I don't see that with Burkhead someone speaking to which we've written off the jets but Ty Johnson is 52 facing Houston if Michael Carter can't go is that low enough to interest you or no so this is like the thing I saw with this past week and I'm not saying like I nailed it because I kind of fell susceptible to it the workload between like and Peterson wasn't that different and Tevin Coleman was also very involved so you had the same number of snaps pretty much yeah so like what these are the types of things we warn about is like and Nick Bodin played snaps too on offense not just special teams I don't know who that is who's Nick Bodin so um Ty Johnson could be in a 50-50 share with Tevin Coleman and that's not enough within the Shets offense for me to want to get to Nick Bodin is a fullback I hope based on his athletic scores so okay so through two positions no real stud quarterbacks aside from Tom Brady really jumping out to us and then not a whole lot of value at running back with a lot of stud running backs to keep in mind okay moving to wide receiver Cooper Cup is 95 Justin Jefferson is 81 that can kind of point chase you me but I like that so I looked at Jefferson and I ended up playing him in my main lineup and I was like he hasn't really had big games he had one 20-point game entering this past week but he was just coming off an 11 target game with 3 yards but no touchdown so he still got to 18-point 4 and I was like well if we were to repeat that and actually score what you basically did and improved upon so I think I was a little bit low on Jefferson I was kind of begrudgingly putting him in my lineup but I think that I'm higher on Jefferson not because of the results but just because of the workload then the workload's been better they talked about getting the ball more and they have so I'll take that for sure um um other receivers who are of interest I would say Chris Godwin, Mike Evans assuming that Antonio Brown's thought maybe suspended I would say so that'll probably be a go-to stack for me Michael Piven is 66 might be a good week to pivot to the past catchers on Indy assuming that you know it's still an 8 even if Vita Veja is out it's still like a kind of a tough spot for sure so I wouldn't be opposed to Pittman but I would say you talked last week about how T.Y. Hilton impacts Pittman that still does stick out in my mind as being a concern there um I mean so he had what 5 targets this week that's 25% Hilton hasn't really downgraded him too much I think that Pittman at that salary is going to be um within that game too I think I could very easily see a top lineup for me just being Brady plus Godwin or Evans once I study that one a little bit more plus Pittman to bring it back Yup Pittman at 66 or Mike Williams at 66 that Denver game is not very appealing for Williams so probably Pittman due to game environment I'd go Pittman due to market share and game environment but so how many tweets will we see this week with Devontae Smith target shares and fire emojis on them without the context of he's averaged 6 targets to the past 5 games and actually would be lower if I made that a larger sample yeah um I'm sure you're thinking to make it look better by going past 5 games because he had 9 in the furthest back one of that sample um I think he almost caught another touchdown this week yes he's a very good football player they just don't throw this again I keep likening this offense to the Ravens of recent seasons I feel like he's got that Marquise Brown role of like 5 to 7 but like you know is it better enough do you want to build lineups around a guy who has to get 80 yards in a touchdown 6 targets or 5 targets versus someone who might be able to get there on 8, 9 targets at similar salaries yep exactly the fake player on the Bengals who is the number 2 receiver behind Jamar Chase is 62 doesn't matter Jerry and Judy 61 yeah I like Judy what are your thoughts on IU quickly because I like I've turned around on him a lot he's fine at 63 so it doesn't do anything to stand out but doesn't really lag behind either these guys? no I'd probably use him over to Montesmith okay so Judy is 61 Marv is 59 Cortland Sutton or Marv is a good question Sutton is 6,000 Guderius Tony is 56 depending on the role he has Monday night get behind that he'll either be the offense or just a guy yeah that's what he's been one or the other MDS is 56 Van Jefferson yet oh he's 54 I'm going to lose so much money on Van Jefferson this week so we do have some more value at receiver than typical we can actually load up at running back this week Chris Colm is 52 4 targets 5 targets it's dead your boy does fit Patrick's 5000 no so I would say between Van MDS potentially Guderius Tony depending on the role maybe Marv we've got a decent number of receivers in the 5000 range we got Judy in the low 6000 range Ayuk is there Lodge Moore is there we've got some dudes with lower salaries this might be a good week to spend up at running back it's going to be the recipe and then we'll flip over to tight end and see what we got there Kittle is 67 I can get behind that again he scored in three straight games and Kittle I don't think had scored in consecutive I think Rich Rebar tweeted this week that Kittle had never scored in consecutive games before last week and now he scored in three straights like the touchdown stuff's going to regress but also like you know it's got a good target share yeah but 67 is a good number it's a reasonable number Pitz at 66 Gronk at 55 I think we're going to have to side with Kittle there yes I would agree with that but that's not like 75 it's not 8000 so that helps us once more get back up to another stud running do I need to pretend how the Higbee doesn't exist too? yeah I'm going to learn how to write some sort of chrome extension and just send it to you so that you don't see Tyler Higbee in the player pool okay I don't see any like good lower salary tight ends Friar was kind of off the table I think Dan Arnold 51 I think people would just write him off after a no target game he ran 22 routes that was second on the team behind Marv at 27 but he wasn't paying off even before it's not a matter of like okay so there's I guess they didn't include him his recent game in the game because there's nothing he didn't play he's a fake player 11.28 and 10.8 50-100 the Falcons are trashed against tight ends if it takes me I'll try to remember this if I had to do a 2v2 of like Dan Arnold and like Jonathan Taylor versus George Kittle and A.G. Dillon I don't know if that'll work out but like that one's tempting Tyler Higbee or Dan Arnold Dan Arnold you wanna make that bet? okay good okay that is all that we have for this week after looking at the main slate terrible bet it's like that's a good place to end a note to future me looking at salaries for week 12 for the main slate? for the main slate I need to throw it back and think about lineups access to the GMMN superstars Jonathan Taylor Christian McCaffrey Najee Harris I can throw in there DALV Echolers in that conversation I like Joe Mixon a lot I probably won't rank him in that tier but this is our zone man this yeah note to future me to throw it back baby let's go back 2019 Vibes let's go Todd Gurley season let's go it's great I feel good about this slate now I feel terrible about Thanksgiving I'm gonna love it tomorrow then we talk on our Thanksgiving preview that is on at 10 a.m. on the Fandal YouTube page and up on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed after that also have our week 12 preview coming up on Wednesday also at 10 a.m. on the Fandal YouTube page and up on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed after that so make sure you are subscribed and leave a rating interview if you like what you're watching on YouTube right now A. Thank you B. Hit the like button hit subscribe to get notifications as we go live each and every day Brandon if people have questions for you on Twitter where can they find you there I'm at Godula 13 GDULA13 and I am at Jim Sonnis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today we'll talk to you once again tomorrow to get you set on Tuesday November 23 for the Thanksgiving Day Slate this has been heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire