 Hey guys, it's Nate, AKA The Foot Accountant. Welcome back to the channel. I know I didn't have an upload last night, but I want to make one today before the content drop, just talking about some theoretical things with this game and what is going on. Looking back at Black Friday and how I think it might be similar to team of the year and just asking the question, which everybody thinks the answer is yes, but will the market rise after team of the year? I think we have to look at it instead of just the market as a whole. We have to look at it in specific areas because after Black Friday, there was a lot of cards that dropped shortly after that we felt we're going to continue to rise back up to a price that they were earlier in the game. So especially with gold cards, I just want to take a look today at some graphs and kind of start the thinking process of how I think this market is going to react post team of the year. Now, of course, the content right now with FIFA 21 headliners team two is a bit slow after Monday. We'll see what comes today on Tuesday. But I think the content being a bit slow is making me think about this sort of stuff. So this is my point that I want to make, right? We all remember what happened with Neymar and Bape and a lot of the gold cards in this game, the very meta gold cards. So Black Friday came, these guys had been panic sold for a couple weeks before this. You can see Neymar was 1.13 million coins dropped all the way down to around a million coins. So just about 150,000 coins right before Black Friday started. And then on that day of Black Friday, he actually was a mill. And he did not really rebound after that. But we all remember what happened the week of team the group stage. This Neymar went from 960 K all the way down to 800,000 coins. And if you remember that one Saturday morning, it was reminiscent of that team of the season crash back in FIFA 20, where people just kept undercutting and undercutting and literally Neymar dropped 100,000 coins in a span of two hours on the market because people were just like, yes, this market's going lower. And everybody told everybody else to just keep selling and undercutting because it was going to go lower and lower. And we had a huge, huge day of sell off right here. It happened with him Bape as well. You can see this is team of the year and Bape actually rebounded slightly. He went from 1.35 to 1.41. So he went up like 50, 60 K, not really that much. But then again, he went from 1.3 mil all the way down to 1.15. So he went down 200 K on that weekend market crash as well. So we had a slight Black Friday rise with a lot of this stuff. And then it just has continued to drop. And it's honestly crazy how much the stuff has dropped this year, whether it's Neymar or on Bape or other gold cards that are in this game. It's honestly insane how much this stuff has really dropped off so far this year. And what I really think it is, is that EA has up the pack weight for these cards. I remember doing it on the stream, the Twitch livestream a couple of weeks ago. I asked the chat, I said, hey, like how many of you guys have packed a Neymar, Ronaldo, Messi, or Mbappe this year in FIFA? And the response was unbelievable. So many people have packed these high tier gold cards or like the UCL blue version of these cards already in this game. And that's why I'm a bit scared for their price rise after Black Friday. Now let's take a look at last year, right? Because what happened last year? What happened in FIFA 19 post team of the year? Sorry, not Black Friday, but post team of the year. Now you can see a massive rise on Neymar last year. He went from 650 K all the way to 800,000 coins. And this is where a time last year during team of the year where Neymar did not have any special cards out. Well, I think he did have special cards, but he didn't have a team of the year. So he was not out of packs. And in FIFA 19, he did go out of packs. He went from 600, 590,000 coins. That's Black Friday. He went from 566 K all the way up to 610 K. So not a huge rise really after team of the year in FIFA 19 as well. So I'm just kind of curious with how low some of these cards are this year. Like last year, Neymar's gold card, which it's glitching out on the card showing me right now. But Neymar's gold card was still, you know, it rose back to 800,000 coins this year with just the amount of people that have packed Neymar. I know it's a very hyped card. Yes, he could go out of packs, but I really don't think that he goes back even close to 850 or 1000 coins or more. And I still feel like this card has room to drop because the amount of panic selling that we saw here with that amount of supply that these gold cards have, I would really be surprised if this guy really rebounded up a huge amount because I just don't know how much desire there is for people to go out and buy a guy like Neymar or Mbappe or Messi. This year, we have the cheapest Messi card we've literally ever had. Messi is the cheapest he has ever been in FIFA. He's 300k for this stage of the year. Messi has never been this cheap. The guy started off at a million coins and has never looked back since. He's just continued to drop. So it's kind of crazy with these gold cards and how supplied they are this year. But for the rest of the market, I feel pretty confident if it's a meta card that is very usable. Like I was taking a look at some of these Team of the Groups Age cards from last year, wrote to the finals from last year. I mean, check this out, right? Of course, the wrote to the finals are live items. So they're going to get thought about in the beginnings of February and into later that month when they're going to be upgraded. But take a look at Goretzka here, right? 600,000 coins during Team of the Year rebounds the 7.82 by the end of the month. So maybe, you know, four to five weeks after and then he continues to go higher, of course, as Bayern were doing very well in the Champions League. Now, what's going to be different about wrote to the final this year, if we invest in these for a rise post Team of the Year is that we're going to have to get on them really, really fast and really, really quick because those games in February are about a month away, I believe it's like mid February when we have Champions League games again. And those games are going to be like if Team of the Year is in two weeks, then those games are going to be two to three weeks after Team of the Year. So it's going to be a hard and fast rise. I think these wrote to the finals, when that panic selling does hit a point that it gets too low, it's going to shoot back up right away because these are going to be cards a lot of people want to buy post Team of the Year. So I just want to keep that in mind. But then other out of pack specials, not even live items, right? Team of the Groups, they just take a look at De Bruyne during Team of the Year. Of course, last year, he had a pretty sick 98 rated Team of the Year card that got a lot of hype. If people weren't able to afford that KDB, this was one that they went out and bought, right? So we went from 380,000 coins all the way up to 580,000. So a 200K rise. And then, of course, we got towards, you know, the beginnings of February. And then the market continues to just go off or go down because it's that time of the year. But if we look at special cards this year, and one of the reasons why I'm talking about this right now is because a lot of these cards are just flat low. A lot of people are not buying cards right now. And we're just, it's feeling like that timeframe before a big time promo comes out because people just don't want to buy stuff again because they know Team of the Year is coming. They don't know exactly when it's going to be, but they know it's coming. And they really just don't want to spend their coins and put their coins into a card that could continue to drop and could continue to go down. So you're seeing row to the finals that are down. You are seeing informs that are down. Literally everything in this game is kind of down right now. I mean, some stuff is still up a little bit, but even our guy, Jamie Vardy, record breaker who fluctuates so much, even this guy is down a decent amount, right? A very, very rare card in this game. He's 440,000 coins. This guy usually bounces between, wow, 410 for Jamie Vardy. So really, really low for that card right now. This guy usually is like 460, 470 on the weekends. Unless there's big content today, I might actually try to pick this up and to flip it because that's just really, really low. But that just shows you, even though that's a risky trade right now, that just shows you how not dead, I mean, almost dead. It's just kind of how people don't want to buy cards right now. And that's just the kind of sense that I'm getting, that's the vibe that I'm getting right now in this game. And I think it's probably going to continue for the rest of the week this week. Now, we'll talk about like Thursday flipping. And it depends on what content EA comes out with later this week on whether we see a market rise coming after this. But we might be thinking along the certain range of people are going to be spending less coins on cards. So maybe we'll look at that under 200K price range for like Thursday flips and stuff like that for this week. Because that is, you know, people, if people are not willing to spend big bucks on cards in this game, that would be something that they would go after in terms of the lower and cheaper cards that they need to fill and finish their team before they play weekend this weekend. So not a super long video. I do think the market's going to rise this year though. I think it's going to rise except for the goals. Again, as we look at some of these promo teams, and I haven't maybe maybe talked about this as much. I've just been talking about how this year has been different than last year. I still feel like it has to happen on a lot of cards, the meta meta cards out of pack specials. One thing to do right now is just kind of take note, right? Watch these cards when they get panic sold. Watch which ones rebound back quickly. Even on a normal panic selling type of day, right? Like this, the Taro Martinez doesn't have that much hype, right? He doesn't have that much hype. He's just been continually dropping. He doesn't bounce around that much. This Bernardo Silva freeze card. This could be a big time card during team of the year because he links to KDB and Bruno Fernandez. If both those cards get team of the years, this could be a card that rebounds very nicely, even though he's in the same position. Five star skills, good player and FIFA, and a rare card. Some of these freezes are very rare cards, but this again is a card that bounces around a ton because he has a lot of demand in this game. Even Alan St. Maxman, Usman Dambali, I still expect these cards to drop a bit more because I don't feel like they're at their lowest yet, especially like Amane or cards that are in the 1.5, 1 million plus range that are meta cards a lot of people like to use. I still think you'll see more dropping on those, even like I wrote to the final one, all of them. I still think you'll see prices go down on those because what happens a lot is when team of the year is actually coming out, people will see those new team of the year cards and they will sell their high valued and high priced cards to go and take some of those cards and replace them with team of the year, right? Like rule breaker Kane, who has maintained his price incredibly well all year. I mean, look at this graph, dude. He was 1.1 mil flat when he was in packs. He's reached a peak in early December of 1.3 million coins and he's kind of been chilling around the 1.1 to 1.2 range ever since. This card is like just a mainstay in terms of its price. I would expect a little bit of a drop from this card during team of the year because somebody might be wanting to sell the Harry Kane and buying something else like a team of the year striker or I just think you're going to see a little bit more sell off with this market in terms of the higher tier 1 million coin plus cards, icons, really big time out of pack specials. I still think you have a little bit of selling to go in those areas and the entire market as a whole. But I do feel like those cards also will be a good rebound and have good rebound potential post team of the year. So I just wanted to throw some caution in the wind. If you're going to buy Neymar this year during team of the year, obviously I think he still has a little bit further to go downwards in price as we do get closer to team of the year. But this guy being a 670,000 coin card right now, he's honestly pretty cheap the way it is. But again, that's just kind of what I mentioned with having so much supply in this game already. And I just don't know if cards like this, the Neymar and Bapé, Ronaldo, Messi, even like Kante, Gold, Van Dyke, Gold, Veran, Gold, I'm just not sure if they have a huge rise after team of the year because of all the supply the golds have gotten. But we'll definitely look at those out of packs cards. If you're going to buy a team during team of the year, the more out of pack special cards you can put into that team as maybe an investment, I guess you could say, the better off you'll probably be in the months after that. So that's kind of just the video I wanted to make thinking theoretically about this market and where I could see it going. I know we're still way away of team of the year. It still seems like it's crazy far away, but it's actually not too far. We're at least within like a week and a half time frame. So hopefully that comes soon because everybody's just kind of waiting for that right now. Like the stuff in FIFA, nobody really wants to do anything except get team of the year. So we're patiently waiting. And hopefully EA drops some nice content in between now and when team of the year actually comes. But if you enjoyed this video, smash the thumbs up on it, comment down below if you have questions, and sub if you are new. It's been Nate the Foot Accountant. Catch you guys later. Peace out.