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Why We Don't Have Flying Cars, Yet

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Uploaded on Jan 29, 2010

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Predictive Innovation analysis of Flying Cars and the next natural big innovation for ground based cars. One of the biggest reasons we still don't have flying cars is the the least satisfied Outcome has been ignored. Car makers have focused on the wrong things, thus causing delays in progress.

http://markproffitt.com/books/
http://www.predictiveinnovation.com/

The report and book this video is based on has been proven correct. Many of the predictions have already occurred but there are still important points to be learned from this analysis.

News:
GM to Introduce Hands-Free Driving in Cadillac Model
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09...

Top five self-parking cars
http://motorburn.com/2012/06/top-five...

http://smartdrivingcar.com/
Mercedes-Benz S 500 Intelligent Drive Autonomous Car Self Driving Car
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47Y8Oi...

Robotic flying vehicles used for small packages in areas without roads. http://youtu.be/9yEl0-bCA9M

High-precision high-speed motor controls. New possibilities for robotics http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pH-l7c...

http://nissannews.com/en-US/nissan/us...

4000 mph automated ground cars (there are other Alternative for doing this)
http://www.dailytech.com/Elon+Musks+P...

Terrafugia still hasn't shipped Transition but is now working on automated vehicle
http://www.xconomy.com/boston/2013/05...

http://www.engadget.com/2013/04/07/te...

Mavrick crashes near school
http://jalopnik.com/experimental-flyi...

Notes:
Terrafugia Transition is not a flying car. Directly from their website It is a roadable aircraft. The reason it isn't a flying car is it doesn't better satisfy the outcomes customers require from a car. It is too small. too expensive, too inconvenient, too dangerous for the average car driver to use the way they use a car. Additionally, all of the components that make the Terrafugia safer are technology that has been around on ground based cars for decades. The video was posted in 2010 and is based on a book published in 2009 which was based on an industry report presented in 2004. Self-driving cars have been on the roads for years. In 2011 Volvo XC60 with City Safe automatic braking sold 68% more cars in the USA than Chevy Volt, 12,932 units. Toyota has autopark http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BqrlN8...
Subaru has EyeSight http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8MMhN9...

Standford offers a 7 week undergraduate class teaching how to program a self-driving car CS-373, not even a senior level class. So everything occurred precisely as predicted.

Safety ratios:
The video clearly states cars have become safer in a crash. The video also points out there are millions of injuries in addition to deaths. And the bigger point is any accident causes damage to something. That is reducing the ability to make other improvements.

There is only a loose connection between miles driven and the number of accidents. In fact the more miles a person drives the less likely they are to have an accident. Air bags and other ways of making crashes safer doesn't address the core problem, there are a lot of crashes. That is what needs to be fixed to get the big increases in safety cars need. Automation is the only way to do that and it also increases efficiency, speed, and comfort.

Example:
Road fatalities per 100,000 inhabitants per year
Road fatalities per 100,000 motor vehicles
Road fatalities per 1 billion vehicle-km
Ireland 4.06 __ 7.44 __ 4.9
United Kingdom 3.59 __ 7 __ 5.7
Germany 4.5 __ 7.2 __ 7.2
Canada 9.2 __ 13 __ 8.2
USA 12.3 __ 15 __ 8.5
Austria 8.2 __12 __ 8.9

Even though the USA has a lot more deaths per car it is not much more per miles driven and the ratios are reversed for Ireland and UK. No strong correlations between miles and number of cars and fatalities.

The main problem for safety in cars is a single point of failure, the human. Automation can easily have multiple layers of redundancy. Just 6 layers of rather poor technology that is only 80% reliable would have a total reliability of (1-0.80)^6 = 99.9936%. That is 6.4 per 100,000 more than 2 times as reliable as cars driven by humans in Canada, USA, and Austria.

Any comment about population growth or claim that Terrefugia is a flying car will be deleted because it ignored the facts and misses the point. Please don't waste people's time.

Any insults (even if you also have a good point) will be deleted. Be polite and logical.

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