 Ladies and gentlemen welcome back to another edition of toffee TV USA I am your co-host James Boyman with my good friend and other co-host Ryan Williams today We're gonna be talking about a polarizing topic at the moment in the Everton fan base and that is the bench Left-back Luca Dean. There's been a lot made of Rafa's decision to sideline one of our previously considered star players and Some of the narratives that have been going around that he's out of form that he's a bang average left back in the Premier League We're gonna try to provide some objective numbers as we tend to do over here at the American toffee podcast and See if that really holds up to scrutiny and whether or not it's really true We'll also then talk about what could be next could the move make sense for Everton for the player Etc etc, but we will try to look at it with a data Focus and we're gonna start with looking at trying to understand This is something Ryan talks about very often and something we talk about often on the show Why we use data in the first place and why it's important to use it in Conjunction with the proverbial eye test which we hear a lot about yeah There's always this conflict for some reason between the eye test to some people and the stats test for lack of a better term all data does is provide you different information more information and That's all it is. It's useful. So so number one in terms of conflict there usually isn't a conflict Normally what you're observing is reflected in the stats and the stats represent actual events That people are either tracking or that are derived from Full-motion video stuff where you're just lifting data off the screen But I think one misnomer is no analyst out there that works in data would ever tell you that the numbers are it It never tells the whole story and we all know that so this idea that oh you only make your opinions informed by stats I don't know who you're talking about because truly no analyst that works with numbers that they all know the limitation of it So that that's a misnomer from the get-go I think sometimes when people see stats or they see a number and it seems to conflict with What they believe sometimes it's just a matter of using the wrong stats because people say well the stats aren't good That's a bad stat stats are bad. They don't tell you the real story. Well, which stats are you talking about? So if all you're using are goals and assists assist is a terrible stat I might add because it's contingent upon someone else finishing a ball We could tap it to someone and they knock it in from 40 yards and assist it really doesn't Really get to the heart of what you're trying to measure You know sometimes that's not relevant like in Luca Dean's case. We wouldn't measure him by goals He very rarely is an opportunity to score let alone taking shots That's just not not a useful measure for that That type of player, you know, so so I think that's a misnomer a lot of people are like well look at his numbers He doesn't show any output Well, you're using maybe not the best stats to measure output But at least you're acknowledging the stats provide some sort of objective reality. So that's the whole point You know stats don't ever tell the whole story. No analyst thinks that so you're not arguing with anyone by saying that But if you're if you're willing to use stats, I think it's important to pick and choose and understand the ones that Measure stuff that's more appropriate For the position now, there's also bias right James. I mean, that's a big part of of sometimes You know, maybe it's just lack of analytical thought process behind it But certainly bias plays a role in everything even the best analyst has some Yeah, everyone everyone has bias and I think it's kind of hard for maybe people to realize but There's like two dozen different kinds of biases that people can hold And it's really important to avoid those biases and be aware of them when you're trying to analyze Any type of information whether it's football related life related it can be anything One of the big ones is confirmation bias where you have your opinion And so you selectively choose points that back up what you already think and ignore the ones that might contradict what you think And again, there's dozens, but one big thing is recency bias or You know a bias towards forgetting the past and only only going off the most recent information And then another one that people are subject to I think when they're watching A football match is the big events, right? You remember the big impactful events Such as in Luca Dean's case getting burned by Max Aaron's in the Norwich game or getting burned by Jordan Henderson Against in the Darby you remember those things and they stick clearly in your mind. And so you think You use those moments to form a larger opinion about the player And in doing so you forget maybe the half dozen times Luca Dean stuffed most silla in the Darby Or the number of times you bottle the player and you just in the course of watching a match You're not watching one player through the whole the whole thing And that's where I think there's some flaws To the eye test again, we're not and those could all get mixed in together too Exactly and I mean, I you know sometimes confirmation bias a real dangerous one But you mix them all together you're gonna have some so it's important to kind of Recognize those things as well. You know, I think another thing though, too Is is the eye test a lot of people don't realize the eye test doesn't tell you everything either does it No, the eye test is of course, we're all watching the match. We want to enjoy watching the match No one is gonna say don't watch the match and just go look at numbers and expect to get a realistic picture of what happened That's how traditionally the game has been consumed But it doesn't tell the whole story because in order to really get a full picture of to answer a question such as Is Luca Dean a good left back? You would have to watch Just Luca Dean in every match for the full time. He's on the pitch And make note of every single action that he makes while he's playing Is he getting up and down? Most people aren't doing that. I'm certainly not doing it when I'm watching the match live I'm watching I'm watching the ball a lot of the time or I'm watching the movement of the entire defensive back line I'm not just watching one player because that's just a bizarre way to consume football Not always that entertaining. It's not that in a star who we call It's not what the average person does let's put it that way Of course And the other thing you would have to do if you're looking at is Luca Dean a good player is you would have to then watch Not only all his matches But every other match by every other left back in the Premier League And figure out some way to compare those by some measure You could use the eye test But again by the time you're on the third or fourth match of watching, you know Joe Concello, you're gonna forget half of the actions that Luca Dean made in the third match of the season So it just it's impossible for people to retain All of that information and oftentimes even to consume it all and so that's why we use Stats because they measure these things for us to support things that we can observe when we're actually watching live It's just more information that helps it helps give you the context sometimes, you know And and sometimes you can see what you think you observe And if it's ratified with the stats normally you're like, yeah, I feel pretty good about things Yeah, the one thing too that I get all the time is You know watch the games football is not played on a spreadsheet That's the one that I have to admit irks me a little bit because it's just it's an insult I mean, we're not neanderthals now. I believe we've evolved to the point in You know as human beings our race is capable of Watching a game and in my case I recognize I'm not normal But I tend to watch the matches two or three times at least you are not and take lots of notes And all sorts of things like that, but then I'll go and look at the data I it takes me five ten minutes to look at the data It takes me a lot longer to watch the matches So there's nothing I'm not incapable as a human of using my eyes and it's just this kind of a silly Silly idea like I would just do both like there's nothing prohibiting me from doing that as a human being So that one irks me a little bit. I have to admit so but that's a silly argument I mean, so anyway, that that's the point. Maybe that was unnecessary to go in the background But we thought it was important that we're going to try and we always try to do this on the american toffee podcast To be objective and look we all feelings. We're all passionate. You know, I get it So all right, let's apply some of those standards and you know viewers keep us honest and listeners please As many of you normally do and let's talk first about lucadine's performance this year We'll get to next year in a second. Let's just talk about this year In particular it seems some people really still don't believe that he's definitely in a different role Yeah, and this is something we've covered extensively on the american toffee podcast But it's been covered also by others adam jones from the liverpool echo Came out with an article in november quoting lucadine himself Where he said the manager asked me to be more of a defender this season to stay back a bit more and keep a better balance for the team Then sometimes I can drive forwards, but only when it's right for the team My first job is to defend. I am a left back if the manager asked me to defend 99% of the time I would defend 99% of the time So he goes on to say, you know, this is for the good of the team, etc. etc but being predominantly a defensive player is Not how lucadine has always been used since he's been in an everton shirt people will remember or should remember quite well how Critical he was to our offense when he first arrived His ability to get forward his ability to cross his ability to be dangerous in the final third His passing ability all these things which we'll talk about coming up But it's certainly a much much different role for dean being asked to Defend and there's a reason for that and it has to do with the larger tactical plan That rafa benites has has implemented an everton and I think it's Probably not the wisest thing in the world to attack more in the right through colman or towns and whatever else is out there Rather than dean and I think that's a very logical assumption And I think dean's probably a little ticked about it probably doesn't make a lot of sense to him But it's true if you think about it too, it's almost worse It's one thing for him to defend more just by the nature of the role in the tactics. Look at the players around him I mean typically we're setting up especially when graze off to the left. They're pretty much in a free role So if they're kind of free that that gets them more exposed I think a lawn this year has been down right reckless and rafio benites has convinced He's more of the sitting midfielder as opposed to decoris who's getting up the pitch more And he's been reckless and and leaving the back line very much exposed. We talk you constantly call the gap You know the space we're leaving between the back lines and dean is having to deal with that Another reason why is michael keen is not that comfortable Stepping up as the center half. So all of these things in in conjunction leave lucadine on an island very often So it's not just the role. It's also the players Around him and I think it's very obvious this is happening through the eye test But the stats also give you a little bit of feedback too. So if just look at him Some of these things are definitely going to affect the way he attacks going forward So number one he was taking off set pieces in week four In corners, which I think was a slap in the face and I'm sure he took it that way It's not like he's being replaced with thomas rodriguez here as we said in the first half So yeah, I probably a little ticked about that if I in him But look he's only taken two corners since week four. So that's going to affect naturally Your overarching production if you're not savvy enough to say, oh, well, he's getting a lot of open play chances versus Set these chances because you get to pick and choose who takes them beyond that too. Just look at his touches. I mean he's I think he's only had More than one or zero touches in the penalty area in only two games this year last year in 30 games He played he did that in 13. So they're way down. He's at like 1.3 last year to 1.15 His touches in the attacking third down or down by a couple as well. So I think it's very obvious and you look at the numbers that You know, he's not attacking as often and it's tactical and I think also people remember last year This is maybe a bit of a recency bias. He didn't get into the box a single time the last five matches because You know, carlo is being very pragmatic and I think that was totally reasonable So I think sometimes people are forgetting about That but okay, this stuff is affecting the offensive production. We know it's down because of his role But then okay, he's defending more So one thing we've heard a lot. I've heard a lot of people say out, especially in social media is this claim that lucadine is a poor defender Yeah, I've seen it plenty. I mean people have said he's a bank average defender. He gets beaten constantly One-on-one versus the dribble. He's a shell of his former self what he was when he first arrived a lot of these statements that Um, frankly, I haven't really noticed watching the matches. Yes I remember the moments like I mentioned earlier when he got rinsed by max errands or he got beat Once or twice in a match and maybe those led to goals and and that's Important to remember and those were pivotal moments and matches But I don't remember every duel lucadine has been in this season And I certainly don't remember the percentage that he's won Which is why it's so important that we measure these things and we have people who Closely analyze the data keep track of all of that and then you can get a better picture Well, because it's also relative to the other people in the position. So I sent out a series of tweets A week or so ago to try and put things in perspective because I'm observing nothing about him that makes him a bad defensive left back In fact, I think it's crazy It's a testament to his ability that he can attack the way he could and yet actually play in a role like he is Right now, especially considering the people around him. So first week Set of of left backs in the Premier League with over 450 minutes. And again, this is a week ago Dean's averaging 11.85 successful defensive actions with a 66 percent dual wind rate All right, so defensive duels are tackles, you know, any sort of engagement whatsoever And I and I wrote guess how many other players can say that the answer Zero And the point I'm trying to make is again, there's context behind that But that's not insignificant. It says something I think but again, there is context, right James Yeah, of course, there's context, but It shows you that guys who are playing left back In those two metrics Defensive actions, he's winning a bunch almost 12 a mat. Yeah Or 12 per 90 I should say and a 66 percent dual wind rate and that is far and away Much higher than anyone else in the Premier League in his peer group. So to say he's a poor defender Well, if you believe that then you also have to believe that almost everyone else is worse than him I mean, certainly in that metric, but it's not just that metric and that was the point I was trying to make So so let's tack on to it next week Top 20 in the Premier League and interceptions Top five in tackles one in the final third And he's already, you know, his aerial numbers have always been outstanding No, no one's obviously ever gonna say he's bad. The air is a left back He's one of the best in the league. So so even beyond that So the idea that he's being beat on the dribble a ton. I've seen that. I mean, that's a stat in a metric The people specifically track He's third in the Premier League in tackles versus the dribbles And so you're thinking, well, yeah, he's just having a lot of tackles because he's being attacked Was fifth in win percentage So what are you talking about? So the numbers indicate not only is he not a bad defender He's one of the best defenders in the league is what the numbers say now again There's context But this is comparing him to everyone in the league some of these numbers So if it'd be one thing if it was just a volume based metric But the rates are no joke and they've always been pretty solid. They're just up a little bit this year So the numbers certainly indicate he's a very good defensive left back. So Look, I don't observe anything different. He does make mistakes like everyone else does But if you watch a lot of football, I mean, it's tough to defend 1v1 Especially against the players in the Premier League And you know, for me, I'm not seeing it. And I think the numbers support it as well. So so, okay That's this year. All right different role Production is outrageous. Let's talk about last year because I feel like there's been Some feedback from some other people that he had a good first half and a poor second half Yeah, there's there's this weird thing that's happened where people The narrative started I think right around when the falling out with Rafa began that He's been out of form this season and that's why he's been bench. He's been bang average all this sort of stuff and somehow now People are saying he's been poor for the better part of two seasons And I honestly don't know where that came from because we've been At one point we had to like check ourselves on the American Tuffy podcast Because we rarely talked about how good Lucadine consistently was just because he had set the standards so high for himself That even when he was a little below that, you know, he was still very very good running It was like a running joke on the pot right so I'm not having anyone say that he's been poor for two two plus years even Some saying three plus years, which is just lunacy to me I won't I won't have it and I don't think there's anyone that can provide any evidence other than naming individual plays that Don't really mean anything when you add context to them that support that opinion frank Yeah, so so let's take a step back and say okay Maybe some of the people saying this are not completely insane There must be some reason why they think that all right and and I I think they're wrong and we could say that they're wrong and that's fine, but Being the American Tuffy podcast as we are Taking a step back is there some reasons and and I have to admit there are some indicators That if you're kind of lazy and this goes back to some of the bias, you know focusing on certain types of stats Or or recency bias that might indicate Someone thinks that he had a better first half Yeah, so if you look at you break it out he played 30 matches for us last season You break it out straight down the middle first 15 versus second 15 The first thing that will stick out is that in the first 15 matches he played he had six assists in the second 15 He only had one so someone would look at that And without looking any deeper say well He wasn't nearly as creative in the second half as he was in the first because he had six times more assists in the First half, but he's digging a little deeper. You start looking at some of those other numbers and It turns out that This is a good illustration of why assist isn't great because you're so dependent on Like he could have been firing in just as many creative passes and it turns out he was His shot created actions in the second half or much higher. He had 40 versus 30 His expected assists 2.9 versus 2.4 He had more progressive passes 58 to 50 A higher xg So the numbers just start to add up and again one of these things in isolation could be Just a fluke or something, but in all together they start to paint a pretty convincing picture Yeah, it just goes back again to bias. So we remember big events I mean Dominic Calver-Lewin was on fire last year at the beginning of the year and he was finishing everything So that's part of it And yeah, so you remember the big goals the assists and because At the end of the year we started tailing off people maybe forget about the performance On the first half or because those big events are happening Maybe people missed them, but that's pretty obvious. I mean And expect that's why I expected assists is just such a better metric You know because it measures the quality of the chance and essence you created For the other person and just shot created actions as a volume stat And it's very obvious and it's not like I mean There he had more passes in the first half and we had more of the ball Yeah, I mean dribbles were way up As well I mean he had like twice as many attempts in that second half if we're doing the 15 games for the 15 games at like 73 percent I mean he was dribbling like a maniac because he had to because we were relying on him to try and create more And so look, I think he was simply more creative in the second half But I think the metrics indicate that and the six assists were really just a byproduct of luck May I really think that's all it was you could say well the quality is not there Well, I mean the numbers seem to say very much something different And sometimes people associate overall Form of a club With the individuals so you know when people are playing not so well around you It doesn't mean necessarily that dean is at fault. It could be other people as well But again, it's a fluid game. I I get that we're just saying Objectively speaking the numbers don't tell that picture at all. He was every bit is creative in the second half So let's talk about defense a little bit. So look his volume was higher in the second half for sure Tackles one were the same just using some basic numbers Interceptions were twice as high 17 versus 9 He had way more clearances 55 to 37. That's probably just because he's defending more So let's ignore volume numbers Tackle rates much higher 69 percent versus 53 percent pressure rates slightly less, but it's like 25.2 versus 26.2 So the point is There's certainly no statistical evidence on the defensive side that he was worse Because there'd be one thing if you saw higher volume and a lot in a lower win rate And probably what was happening is it's the same luka dean He was just up in the pitch more and making tackles higher in the pitch and I think that was true And those are normally a lower win rate and a lower percentage. So so anyway, all I'm saying is we look at those numbers and I mean, is there anything objective that we can look at james that would indicate his form has dropped At all from the first half to the second half Not that I can really see I think that's objective. I mean, I we're trying to be objective here and I think we were successful in doing that I like luka dean as a player, but i'm also not You know dug in on this idea that he's been great I just want to try to formulate an opinion With as much information as I can possibly get and the numbers tell me he's been quite good If they said otherwise, you know, we're not trying to Fit these numbers into this neat little box to fit a narrative It's just taking in them for what they're worth And this is what they say. So you can believe it. You cannot believe it. You can trust the eye test But we've been over why you may be uh, there may be some some blind spots when you try to do that And then you look at okay, so we're we're in this riff With rafa where he's been benched and he's supposedly sick and he may have faked sick. We don't know He hasn't really said anything. We talked about it But if he were to go If he was truly out of form and playing poorly Just signed a new contract Would all of these Quite good and wealthy clubs looking to compete for trophies and win the champions league and do all these sorts of things Would these be the type of clubs that you would think would want to Come in for him because we know there's a lot of players who have underperformed in an everton shirt And we've had some real problems over the last three or four seasons getting rid of those guys Boucadine doesn't seem like the type of player Who would be difficult to move in fact? It seems like he'd be pretty easy to move the question becomes What type of fee do you get for him and what's the plan when you try to replace one of your best? Players moving forward, but we talked about it a little bit ryan the in theory moving on one of your best players for a Big fee who's now 28 Could make sense because that's sort of the direction that everton need to go strategically to be run sustainably, right? Yeah, I think that's a wise decision in many cases Um, I think the circumstance around it is not ideal I don't think this is maybe the right time And those are things that we're going to explore in future episode on on toffee on the american toffee podcast And perhaps on toffee tv as well. But yeah, I mean look You know man city chelsea if these teams were interested in him, obviously he's okay Um, and most people at that age, maybe, you know, he wouldn't be quite as attractive due to that age But he's just simply that outstanding and his versatility is is Something that teams would want he can fit in a lot of different styles. That's another indicator Some of these teams play in different ways and they still want them Um, but yeah, I mean the bottom line is we just look we took an objective view Um, my eye test tells me he looks like the same darn player and just in general I mean really would it make that much sense where someone has been that elite a player for so long At age 28 that he suddenly lost a lot. I mean, yes, I agree that might be slightly on the down end for certain players But not for good players and not for elite players Normally they're able to sustain their their form much longer And like you said these teams wouldn't be after him if they if they didn't think that so look This is our take you can agree disagree love to get feedback and opinions But in our eyes, I think both of us agree that The eye test the numbers it all seems to sync up for me that lucadine is every bit the player as he was Last year the year before as far as we can tell and uh, hopefully these guys can get things ironed out And if he's got to go he's got to go But uh, we'll do some further analysis on that scenario how much we think we could get for him And his replacement on future episodes of the american toffee podcast Yeah, and again if you disagree if you want to sound off in the comments Absolutely, let us know you can reach out to us on twitter You can find all of our social media links at link tr dot ee slash us a toffee pod which will be in the description He can send us an email At american toffee at gmail.com. Let us know what you think we appreciate the feedback We appreciate the back and forth very much if you want to Join our discord. You can also do that. It's a great community We've got a lot of people in there who have a very well reasoned And we have some very thoughtful and intelligent conversations about everton. You can find that at invite dot gg slash atp Otherwise, we thank you very much for listening and watching. We hope you enjoyed it and until next time Up the toffees