 That's rubbish! Hello! I've got 20 minutes to talk about the entire future. Let's crack on. What do I do? I run a consultancy called We Do Things Differently, and we are a cultural change consultancy. We help people to change their culture so they can make the world more sustainable than Justin. All of the people who work for this company are independent successful artists, writers or performers. We believe that Stevie Wonder knows as much about cultural change as McKinssey. Ac mae'n ddweud oherwydd rydyn ni'n gweithio'r llwyf. Felly, mae'r ffwrdd yma, ac mae'r llwyf yn rhaid i'r gwaith. Felly, mae'n ddweud o'r ffutur, mae'n ddweud o'r technolig. Douglas Adams yn ystod, mae'n ddweud o'r technolig. Mae'r technolig yn fwy o'r bobl yn ymddangos, ac mae'n ddweud o'r technolig, mae'n ddweud o'r sefydl. Mae'n sefydl. Mae'r texstyn, mae'r lle. Mae'n ddweud o'r technolig, mae'n ddweud o'r technolig chyflwy similarity May Hold. Mae'n ddweud o'r technolig o'r gwahbwn yn rhaideth wiriau i bwysig o-wg g öncellfa toppedl o bobl. Mae'rój MeatLage 3540 chainsc, ac mae'n ddweud bod bod yn deawadau bod arall. Mae'n eich gen tudwn diwrl â literность phenny deadfynu, ac mae Mobyl Phone Gwynادd, ei bod ni gilydd mynd gwn coffd Gongol Swath neu Fobeidinn.unkwn senogi deille, erain widefynu. Mae'n ddweud oherwydd i gwyllul neu mae'n gwaith mae'r technolig mewn gwir er ôl. For my generation that's things like 3D television and Twitter. I have friends who are literally furious that Twitter even exists. Now, by the way, just so we know my Twitter handle is not optimist on 2. Okay, just if you wanted to... Now whilst that is quite funny it's also, I think, unwittingly profound because in the work that we do we often find that the people who decide the strategic direction of an organisation, or a government, or family, or a school, a roedd y cwrwm yn ffamol yw'r rhaid i'r gael. A ydi gael fwybod y wahanol am y dyma yn gweithio. A dyma'r adrodd i'r cyrraedd ystod yn gwybod ymgyrch. Rwy'n meddwl i wirwch ar y cyfrifau newid yn ymgyrch yn ei ddau. Mae oedd yn rhoi wneud o'r cyfrifau. A rydw i'n meddwl i'r adrodd i'r cyfrifau newid yn ymgyrch. Mae'r adrodd i'r cyfrifau newid yn ymgyrch yn ymgyrch yn ymgyrch, o'r dechau gyda'r llomos. Ac rwy'n rhaid i'r database a chygofnodd y dwylo'n hi'r geneddwyd gynhau'r yn cymryd iawn, roi'r dylai ni'r sefydlion fod maen nhw, yn gwybod yn awrau hwn i'r dylai gwneud genedliadau. Rydyn ni'n meddwl gynhau'r coswmol o'r chwanes Mhau Rhysgol ac mae'r bobl yna gweithio hwnnw sy'n meddwl cael eu'r geni이가on, rydyn ni'n meddwl yn dweud. Rydyn ni'n meddwl uch camino'r rysgiau sefydlu ac mae'n gwrs hynny i ddechrau'r cyfrwynt iawn. Cysyfio'r cyfrwynt iawn o'r Llyfrgellau i Gwyrdegol yma. Ond, mae'r NHS yn cyfrwynt iawn gwyrdegol ac yn y cyfrwynt iawn, ym 40 yma i gyfrwynt iawn o'r cyfrwynt iawn cyfrwynt iawn. Mae nhw'n gwybod gyda'u dros. Mae'r genetig ddechrau'r cyfrwynt iawn o'r cyfrwynt iawn yw'r cyfrwynt iawn. A hynny'n gwybod ar gyfer y cyfrwynt iawn. Mae'n gwybod cyfrwynt iawn. Saethau ar gyfer, mae'r linei'r hyfflor ffr sunnog. Ieith wnaeth y cyflightoedd yn bwynt, pan wedi greu mynd i'r Bwysigol, yn rhanio'r ysg!!! Mae'r pwysig hon! new technology. We're seeing that everywhere now. The gap between what we do and what we could do is getting ever wider, not just in the healthcare, but in the way we govern ourselves, in the way we educate our children, in the way we run our corporations, which is indeed, I think, what this conference is all about. I was recently asked to react to the Davos summit, the world's most boring summit, never go. One of the things that was quoted at that summit quite a lot was this report from McKinsey, where they quoted a CEO saying technology is changing five times faster than management. I asked, what do I think about that? I said, I think it's wrong. I think technology is accelerating five times faster than management. But it's always been that way. Technology has always been speeding up. This is a distribution graph shows you how long it takes 25% of the American population to adopt a new technology from its inception. 46 years for electricity, just seven for the World Wide Web. There's two and a half times as many Americans when the World Wide Web arrives. This makes perfect sense because each technology provides a platform for the other technology to build upon. You can't have the World Wide Web before electricity doesn't work that way around. The other thing I love about this graph is even though I got it from the National Intelligence Council in America, they spelled television wrong. One of the things, the most obvious way that we've seen this massive leap forward in technology and how it changes our lives is, of course, through the increasing power of computing per dollar. Right back from Babbage, we've had this exponential growth in computing power per dollar. In fact, we've had a billion fold increase in computing power since 1965, which is a surprising thought, except we're not surprised by it. We just accept the fact that our mobile phones have more processing power in them than the Apollo space program. I'm surprised. We're not more surprised. Quite frankly, I think it's quite surprising, but we're not surprised about it, which is in itself surprising. One of the things that what I love about this is things happen that previously seemed impossible, and then we begin to accept them. Five years ago, the idea of a car that drove itself would have seemed pretty ridiculous. Most people have gone, no, technology can't do that. That involves value judgments. It's very human. It couldn't get something to drive a car. It's ridiculous. Anyway, I just want to show you a little of the clip of some guys getting into a driverless car at a conference in America here again. The Hans team will never believe this. Oh my goodness. Go. Is the right word. Holy shit. Holy shit. There's no fucking hands on that wheel. Oh my god. What? It's driving itself. Anyway, you can find it on YouTube. Now, I was introduced to that clip by a man called Salam Ishmael at the Singularity University. Salam said this brilliant thing about it. He said, what you can hear there is the sound of new technology hitting somebody's brain and changing the way they think forever. Now, those people will never think about a car in the same way again. So I've gone from something that's impossible to something that's a change into a motion to something that's going to legislation by January in the UK to allow these things onto the roads. So this is from something impossible to legislation. Now I've been working with some insurance companies and they're wondering what to do about this because what happens in this situation where one of these is a driverless car or both of them? So on the one hand they're going, well this is very bad for our business because we insure drivers. If there are no drivers, what's going to happen to our business model? On the other hand they're thinking well actually maybe it's a good thing because it turns out that human beings are shit at driving cars. We are terrible at it and the reason I know this is because when the blackberry messenger system went down in Abu Dhabi for a weekend, the crash rate went down by 40% because nobody was texting while they were driving. So on the other hand it might be, oh great. So maybe we'll have less claim so maybe that's a good thing. So this is an example of how you get technology moving very quickly into the mind, into legislation and then actually changing the way business can work which offers huge opportunities and huge threats as well. It's another example of what's happening of course is the plummeting cost of genome sequencing. $100 million a sequence of genome in 2001, $1,000 today, $1,000. So that's outstripping Moore's law, the computing law by a factor of four since 2008 which means the $1 human genome is going to be here by the end of the decade and the $1 human genome will be here by the end of the next. Which could change everything about medicine. You can start to do really interesting things like when it gets that cheap you can sequence individual cells from the same patient and compare them. It's been possible to think about even a few years ago and now we can actually do that. It's been done in a few studies so I'm going to show you a pretty upsetting picture. This is a PET scan. Pretty much all the black blobs on that scan except for the kidney shape one between the legs are tumours. This is a dead man walking. It's a melanoma that's gone inside him and infected all his organs. Now his doctors sequenced two cells from him, one that was cancerous, one that was healthy and compared them. They were able to see at the genetic level what the cancer was doing to him because every cancer was individual to the patient. They worked out there was an experimental drug that would target the proteins that were being generated by the cancerous cell. It wasn't approved yet but this guy has got nothing to lose. He is going to die so they give it to him. This is the scan 15 days later. It's not science fiction. What you're looking at there is the programming of somebody out of their cancer at a genetic level. This is quite interesting stuff that suddenly means things are changing. Technology is changing things quite dramatically. Not only are we reading genomes, we're writing them. We now have technology that will change, for instance, an E. coli bacteria, eat to carbon dioxide, eat water and excrete crude oil. I'll just say that again. Eat carbon dioxide, eat water, excrete crude oil. This stuff is already happening. These are four companies that do this and there's about another 25 that I'm keeping an eye on. People say we should ban genetically modified organisms. I don't know. Should we? I mean, in some cases, very bad. Other places, pretty interesting. By the way, all of the insulin that diabetics have is genetically modified. I was actually with the anti-GMR activist the other day who was a diabetic and I explained this to them and now they're still sat there wondering what to think. These people at the moment are getting their CO2 from the fossil fuel industry and big tankers. I sit on the advisory board of this. This is Virgin Earth Challenge. $25 million prize put up by Sir Richard for anybody who can take carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in an environmentally sustainable way and make a profit while they're doing it. 1,600 applications to the prize, most of them from mad people in sheds. We're down to 11 finalists and I was doing some consulting work with Audi. We introduced Audi to the prize and now Audi have done a deal with Climbworks, one of our finalists, to take carbon dioxide out of the air and turn it into fuel for Audi cars and they're building a pilot plant right now in Switzerland. The Solar Fuels Institute are going to gather researchers from all over the world to create basically this, which is something that uses artificial photosynthesis to make petrol in your back garden from the sky. They can already do it. It's very expensive at the moment but it's dropping exponentially in price. One of their best guesses is that the first commercial products will hit in niche markets early in the next decade. They also sit on the fuels and transport committee at the Institute of Mechanical Engineers and that's our best guess as well when we're having a pint and they're discussing it to be official. What does this do to the world? Just an example. We don't get any of that, which is nice. Don't get any of this, which is much better. Regardless of what you think about politics, there's a lot of cash. I got that from the Treasury so it's almost certainly a lie. That's how much we spent doing that. Could we have spent that money better, do you think? Like on anything else, like on anything else. Education, pensionist tips, researching new kinds of fuel. That's just a very extreme example of the gap between what we could do and what we do do and how technology allows us to do things that actually we don't do because we're still thinking in old institutional ways. This is what's happened to the cost of solar power. Again, showing an exponential drop in price. The fossil fuel industry will tell you that solar power only produces 1% of energy needs and therefore it's a sideshow. This tells you one of two things about the fossil fuel lobby. They're either stupid or disingenuous. I will leave you to guess which. It's doubling, okay? So if it's 1%, how many doublings do 100%? That's six and a half. This is not me saying this. This is the fossil fuel industry saying this. Actually this is a report they recently wrote about solar power. This is the executive summary. I was just in Brazil looking at new systems of governance. This is a hacked energy grid. In a few years time these people are going to have their own solar power that will change the entire economy of the favela at favela and by extension the nation of Brazil. This is the green tea coalition. These are greens and tea party members coming together to form coalitions to fight corporate America to battle their utilities saying you can't have solar power on your roof. You know the world is changing when basically left leaning, you know, Hessian wearing, you know, sandal, tree huggers, sandal wearing tree huggers are partnering with gun-toting, right wing, crazy, you know, evolution denying evangelists to fight corporate America. You know that things have changed. This is just an example of what's happened recently. This company supported by National Research Labs has come up with a way to increase the throughput of solar power by 100% and half the cost. This is what Deutsche Bank is saying that solar electricity will be cheaper than the average electricity bill in 47 US states by 2016. We don't have an energy crisis. We have an energy conversion crisis and we may be about to solve it. And all of our politics and all of our economics is the economics and politics of energy. So think about what's going to happen when we have energy too cheap to meet it. Manufacturing revolution, the cutting edge of 3D printing is quite interesting. These are 3D printed car parts, 3D printed body parts. These ladies come up with a way to make 3D printed cosmetics. She worked out that actually what most cosmetics are is the same kind of paste, you know, whatever's in a lipstick or foundation is pretty much the same. But what you buy is the colour. And she's worked out that all the colours that you might buy from, you know, Chanel or whatever are already in your inkjet printer. So she's combining those two technologies. Fantastic. I was doing some work with Condé Nast and Vogue magazine recently. It's a horrible shitty magazine with an awful way of thinking about the world. And I told them so. But they're also a bit worried about, you know, about what will happen to their advertising revenues if this stuff starts happening. These people are printing 3D printed body parts. So proto organs that they can test drugs on. And the guy who runs this company said, give me 10 years, I'll print you the human heart. Not the one you have now, but something better. 3D printed dresses and the most important company you've never heard of, NanoScribe, NanoScribe, 3D print on the nano scale that's just 80,000 times smaller than the human hair. The first thing they printed was this replica spaceship from the not very successful science fiction movie Wing Commander. This tells you quite a lot about the people who work at NanoScribe. Then they start printing scaffolds for holding cells and now they're printing on the nano scale components for microchips. And they're printing those components in less than two minutes each. What this points to is a world sometime in our future, and I won't say when, where 3D printers will be able to print all of the components necessary to make 3D printers. At which point, most of the assumptions, especially if you combine it with the energy revolution, of industrial capitalism fall away. We need to think about things differently. You have to imagine a world where your mobile phone never runs out of power because the solar panel is so good where that mobile phone can give you a blood test and based on that blood test you can download a drug and print it at home. Already happening. This is going to be released next year. It's a phone where the screen is a solar panel. You can already attach a blood test to your iPhone and they're combining into single devices. There's even a prize for it. Yes, it's called the Tri-Corder Prize. And these two chaps have basically machines that will assemble pharmaceuticals. By the time your kids are your age, they will be able to print their own drugs at home. There is a parenting challenge for you. Right now they're hanging out with places like this and they're hacking their own fuel. This is where Bill Gates and Steve Jobs of New Biotech Revolution are hanging out. Along with a generation of bioterrorists we have no idea what to do with digital. I'm afraid which everybody talks about was the cocktail sausage before dinner. It was the trailer. Digital is old. The same level of democratisation and power that we've seen in the digital world is coming to the physical world through programmable biology, programmable matter and energy to cheap to meter. This is the industrial revolution times 100. It's going to change the definition of wealth. Because when the person on the average wage has a 3D printer that prints a 3D printer and energy to cheap to meter, your ability to influence him because of the money in your bank account has kind of eroded. And so the really smart billionaires I work with are realised that they want to still maintain their influence in the world. They better start showing some moral leadership. They better increase their social capital, which is why conferences like this are so important. Because smart people have been to realise if they want to have any influence in the world that's coming, they better start saying interesting things about climate change, social justice and poverty. Most companies won't be able to manage it because as Upton Sinclair said it's difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it, which is most of us. Don't believe me? Who remembers them? Anybody remember them? A few of you. They all disappeared. So who's next if they don't get it? These people. Which means, as John Sidney Brown says, nearly every social and technical and business infrastructure we have can't survive. Morning. To which my answer is thank God because the systems we have are a bit shit. You may have noticed. A political system, this is Hansard's every year does a report on the English political system and basically says every year, oh my God it's got worse and we didn't think it could. A disengaged and disillusioned public. It gets to the point where Jeremy Paxman agrees with Russell Brandt that neither of them vote because they both think the system is broken and they both agree with PJ O'Rourke who said don't vote, it just encourages the bastards. We have an energy system that can't keep pace with demand and is visiting on an environmental crisis of unprecedented proportions. We have a financial system that is completely subject to systemic risk and completely out of step with most people's perceptions of value. My favourite example is this, this is my friend Jules, I met him when I was six years old, he's still my best friend. He has three degrees, he's a paramedic, we've paid him 30,000 pounds of years. The Hornby, the XCO of HBOSS are colossal failure by hit the Banking Standards Commission's opinion and we've paid him 2 million pounds a year. Saves lives, arsol. Saves lives, arsol. Saves lives, arsol. This is a report from Patence Suckdeff, ex-Deutsch Bank guy who's trying to work out how much we're extracting from the environment in terms of financial value that at some point we're going to have to pay back because as Gaylord Nelson said the environment, sorry the economy is a wholly owned subsidiary of the environment, how much are we taking from the environment and not putting back about 4.7 trillion a year. We have a workplaces where, according to the annual Gallup Survey, about 87% of people are not engaged with their jobs. How do we get to that? 87% of people. Most people, probably not at this conference, but most people at the places where we all work don't give a shit. We have a sick care system, not a healthcare system, one of my favourite reports out recently from the Health Foundation and the NHS, hospitals more dangerous than bungee jumping. And we have an education system which is not teaching our children about the future that's coming, it's teaching them about the past they've had. This is what a classroom looks like in 1895, this is what a classroom looks like today, fantastic. But these changes are coming whether we like it or not which is why conferences like this are so important because hopefully we're going to start thinking about this thing and because the future's up for grabs and maybe we can use these big changes that are coming to do something useful and important and just and humane. And it is definitely coming when my clients say I don't want to think about that because it affects my business and my salary doesn't really pay me to think about that. I always quote Philip K. Dick who said reality is that which when you stop believing it doesn't go away. There isn't a record company executive anywhere in the world right now that doesn't want to wake up tomorrow morning and find out the internet had just been a bad dream. But reality is that which when you stop thinking about it doesn't go away. And these technologies, the deprediting and cheap treat renewables and synthetic biology are coming whether we like it or not and if you don't understand these things you can end up having difficult times. I was recently talking to a whole bunch of petroleum people which was very weird but I basically said to them if you don't understand what's happening with renewables you're going to end up like Detroit. This is a street in Detroit on Street View in 2009, 2011, 2013. This is a city that didn't understand that this industry was changing. Now here's the thing, most people say they want to innovate don't they? Who wants to innovate? Everybody right, don't know me. All my clients come to me and go we want to innovate, we really do. We really want to innovate and what I've realised is that nobody really wants to innovate or very few people. What they want is innovation wash which is the appearance of innovating without changing a bloody thing. It's getting McKinsey to come in and rewrite your company manual with the word creativity in it and charging you 300 grand and not changing anything. I work with lots of, do we do a lot of work in education? I'm always told that we're innovating in education. They're really innovating. It's amazing what they've done in the last 150 years. Why culture each strategy for breakfast? We know this. We can all know this stuff but if the culture of your organisation isn't there to embrace sustainability and humanity and justice and you really think about the culture of your company or the place that you work then nothing will change. If you look at the digital revolution as a trailer for instance it wasn't invented by the incumbents because the incumbents didn't have the right culture. Why was PayPal not invented by a bank? It's not like I didn't have the expertise to do it, it just didn't have the right culture and think about it in the right way. And Skype was invented by two guys in a flat in Talan Estonia. Why wasn't it invented by BT? The world is Darwinian in the end for everybody including corporations and governments. It's not the fittest that survive, it's the most agile. That's why conferences like this are important because we are hopefully increasing our agility by thinking about these things in important and interesting ways. So where do we look? Maybe it's the island of Samso. Completely off grid, 4,000 people. What's happened to its economy do you think? Social networks for patients now directing their medical research. I've just been come back from India where I've been looking at open source drug discovery. First new drug for tuberculosis, gone into human trials after two years of open source development hasn't been a new drug for tuberculosis in 1963 before that. Online courses. But it is possible for big companies to do it and there are some interesting examples. So uni-leavers interest, this is Paul Paulman from uni-leavers. There's lots of things wrong with uni-leavers but he's trying to change that and he said he's still been in front of the confederation of British industry and said how much longer are we going to steal from our children's future? I'm going to halve uni-leavers for environmental footprint and I'm going to double our revenues. If you're a hedge fund I don't want your money. Interesting. People said he was crazy but it was up to their share price since he was announced. So you can get it. With strong leadership and big organisations it can happen. And now Paul is joined force with Sir Richard and a few other people to try and get that mindset into large companies. Whether they succeed or not and there's a lot of criticisms about how they're going about it. Whether they succeed or not is questionable but the fact that they're doing it means there is something in the water that we all get this. As Alistair Campbell said to me that public are demanding the efficiency of the private sector and the public sector and the social mandate of the public sector in the private sector and soon they will accept nothing less. The idea of this conference wouldn't have been around about ten years ago. So to finish off, the good, the bad, the ugly. The bad is that most of our organisations are not fit for purpose. The good is that we do have these wonderful tools to remake our world and the ugly is it's going to get messy because we're going through a revolution that will make the industrial revolution look like a storm in a teacup. If we thought about the digital revolution as a trailer it told us that we no longer had to just be passive consumers of information we could be publishers as well if we wanted to. And we understand that if it doesn't interact with us somehow it's broken. Well that's coming everywhere else. What does it mean? It means power is coming to us. And as Victor Frankel, sorry as Franklin Roosevelt, Franklin Roosevelt and Spider-Man said with power comes responsibility. And with mass power comes mass responsibility. Our governments won't be able to legislate for this kind of stuff. We'll have to do it in our hearts. Victor Frankel said when we erected a statue of liberty on the east coast we forgot to erect a statue of liberty, sorry a statue of responsibility on the west coast. What you're doing here at this conference I'm hoping is beginning to erect some statues of responsibility. It's a world where we become citizen and state. We cannot predict the future but we can make ourselves ready for it which is why I'm very happy to speak here today and open this conference. I don't know why you can't predict the future because you just can't predict the second, third or the fourth order effects of technology. Here's some great examples. Man will not fly for 50 years, Wilbur Wright, 1901. He was building an aeroplane at the time. Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? Henry Warner Warner Studio is 1927. You'd think he'd have an idea and of course the most famous one I think there's a world market for maybe five computers. This is the chairman of IBM. Now if these people can't get it right what chance do we have? What's interesting is that nobody laughed at those statements at the time. They all made perfect sense given the culture of the time and what was happening. So when you find yourself laughing at the idea of 3D printed drugs at home be careful because otherwise you might end up in a slide like this in 20 years' time. See the future and technology is just a mirror and it just asks us what kind of world we want. As we look into that mirror if we don't see a world of compassion and humanity and justice then we all better be prepared for the consequences. That's why this event is so important because it's asking us to look into that mirror. I'm going to finish with two quotes. Catherine the Great, great wind is blowing. It either gives you imagination or a headache. I hope my job this morning is to give you a little bit of both. Finally, ancient Chinese wisdom, when the winds of change blow some people build walls, some people build windmills. This is a room with windmills. I'm very happy to speak to you. Thank you for listening.