 Hi everyone, Joe for Jasby's casebreaks.com got some more Ben Baller To do tonight 12 box pick your team at 10 all-card ship a lot of nice stuff here. So big thanks to big thanks to this group For making it happen. Appreciate it. You're on a Thursday. Delo With double last ball mode triple last ball mojo. So thanks to him for finishing this off Let's pop this case open Let's see what we got 12 boxes here pick your team 10 Good luck to everybody The game I want to watch This is the game Arizona State at UCLA. It's time to start getting into not only baseball mode, but college basketball mode Selection Sunday not this Sunday, but the Sunday after that Yeah, are we gonna find some supers in here? I hope so Yeah, one of one overs if you want to take the over we had set the line at three and a half The over is now probably two two plus two fifty although we are doing that dynasty a Little bit later. I mean there could be there could be two in there or two right there Maybe even three you says up 59 43 with ten minutes left in the game. I think if They win couple more games here pretty sure that They're looking at a number one seed in the tournament in the March Madness tournament not sure how They're how deep they could go but from my understandings or They're a cohesive team a lot of these guys have been playing together for three or four years But size is going to be an issue for them if they run into bigger team that's going to be Be a problem Yeah, that top dynasty stuff definitely bananas first box ripped open I remember just as a reminder the autos in here if you're far between we're not going to see more than one or two autos per case but The reason why everyone's doing this because we want to look for parallels like this Luis Robert to 99 That'll be for Chris parent and the White Sox and Roan to contrast to 75 for Steven in the Pirates There's Tony Santillan 14 out of 50. That's going to go to the Red Legs. That'll be for John Ronald Acuna junior riding low insert One of my favorites from this set Jacob de Grom to 99 for the Mets. That'll be for Ryan Harold not not his favorite player Here is Mike Trout 47 out of 50. She look at Mike Trout's 2022 numbers and if he if he wasn't out for like a month, I Feel like he would have been he would have been battling Aaron judge down the stretch 60 home runs on that that would have been I mean the Aaron judges chase For 60 plus was was amazing Imagine if there is two people and a star like Mike Trout And on that raise The last no did not happen Does Aaron judge hit 50 ever again? Yeah, I remember last summer Yeah, I remember last summer when people when trout was out for a little bit people were selling on Mike Trout I was like, I mean You can tell who the casuals are in the in the hobby or who or people who just can't stomach You know downturns in a market, I don't know how many I don't know how many people sold too early on trout So Aaron judge hit 52 his rookie year full season 2017 and then you know due to due to injuries and whatnot Only 27 his second year over 112 games 27 his third year third full season 102 games The next season was a pen it was the pandemic season then Then almost his first full healthy season 148 games as had 39 home runs and then it popped He popped off at 62 home runs last season Almost winning the Triple Crown I don't know. What does he do for an encore? I Say he gets about like 40 home runs, but I wonder if he would ever He would ever hit the He ever hits 50 or 60 even ever again Most exciting chase to beat a record. Are you saying of all time or like what? What I just would think would be a fun record To see being broken. I do do the fantasy Baseball Dilo. I only play only do one or two leagues, but the main one that I look at is Is a is a 16 team keeper league an auction league. It's a really really competitive one. It's pretty tough One the league once many years ago and have come a little close since But not recently Tristan with the Cubs gets the Ian Hap Yeah, you know initially I wasn't a huge fan of the auction draft But now I personally think that's the that's the That's the best way to play, you know, you just you just don't You just don't have the luck of the draft position to help you especially with like the NFL You don't have like the luxury of a draft position to just fall To have a player fall into your lap. Now. You're actually thinking Hey, who are the players that I think at Torkelson base by the way goes to Stephen Carney You guys are thinking You guys are thinking man who? Who do I really value and by how much I mean then you get some sort of a salary cap that you're trying to work around It gives you a little more GME kind of feeling nice who you Rodriguez die cut for the Mariners. That's going to go to Tristan Right. Yeah, and our keepers like they increase a little bit in value Their contract increases in value each season you keep them as well Yeah, I do think if there was a step that's all that's kind of what I was getting to Mike tower about About record chasing. Yeah, like It's imagine if you know, we saw how exciting the McGuire Sosa run was so imagine if Aaron judge had Mike trout chasing him eight out of 99 Bobby with junior Royals Jose Like that would be pretty exciting You know to see to see to see to To players. Yeah, I mean at the time It was extremely exciting. It was cool to see Aaron judge You know do his thing. It was amazing But if there was a second player involved, especially like Mike trout on the West Coast Aaron judge on the East Coast You know that would do you know like baseball would have loved it because you know Aaron judge would be playing on the East Coast Right, he'd hit a home run and then every be like all right time to watch time to watch the angels on the West Coast You know people staying up late seeing if Mike trout's gonna hit one if they're a trading home if they're trading homers back to back I think when it comes to individual records You almost always want to see multiple people like chasing it chance, you know the Dynamics for another sport to do it so similar like record chasing you mean As opposed if it's like basketball is a little weird just because there's so many points that are scored Like total points like it just seems kind of Kind of an almost like an arbitrary number It's like kind of like thinking about what the national debt is, you know, it's like, okay cool It's that number, but I have no context for that number But like baseball is unique in that you know the statistics are such that That almost in any era You know that if adding 300 Right, whether you're in the 1920s or the 2020s, you're like, yeah, that's pretty good If a batter can hit 300 throughout the season like we know those numbers those we know those numbers by heart 100 RBIs. Yeah, that's pretty good you know when you're talking about 30 40 doubles, you're like, yeah, that's good You know, you know what a 20 homer player is like, you know what a 30 homer player is like 40 homers 50 homers like you kind of see those You kind of see like those milestones that everyone kind of has ingrained in their heads in childhood So I think there's also history involved that that helps that as well And for the most part baseball hasn't really changed very much in its entire existence, whereas Fundamental parts of the game of basketball and football have changed like the forward pass in the football a three-point line and basketball you know like The baseball has pretty much been The same the same game. So that's why these records are kind of fun to chase And are so ingrained in our heads and hallowed in a way Yeah, like rushing title. I guess it's kind of a similar chase It's a similar vibe You don't think Gretzky's you don't think Gretzky's 92 goals in this season would ever be How close is how close is the next person gotten in the last in the last like 15 20 years? There's Ian Hap to 50 baseball Matt's thinking 92 will fall Brett Hall had 86. It's not oh and redemption nice You know him and as to 75 that'll be for the white socks. That's gonna go to Chris parent So the closest in recent memory was Was Ovi in 07 with 65? I feel like hmm That's the man saying that eventually it'll fall. I feel like there's more goals being scored in the NHL in general year over year right in the last 10-15 years There's Rangers edition of Isaiah kinder Falefa to 25 that'll be for Samuel and the Texas Rangers Alexander Wells to 99 for the O's it'll be for Daniel It's Alex Bregman eight out of 75 for the Astros. Yeah forever is forever ever Mark has the Astros is definitely a long time. I mean people didn't think cream Abdul-Jabbar's career points record ever ever fall And the brawn knocked that out What are some what are then what are some? Unbreakable records you think Across any sport Maybe leaning more baseball just because it is a baseball break. All right behind Seth beer Congratulations, someone is due to receive an Orge refractor parallel autograph of of Mike trout and The aim we were just talking about him That goes to Rob and the angels Congrats nice Yeah, that's true complete games Pitching complete games All those complete games records. That's that's those are never gonna fall Logan things Ricky Henderson stolen bases career stolen bases. Yeah, that probably is not That's not gonna fall anytime soon. You know the pitching has become so specialized now Relief pitchers coming in earlier and earlier Openers are happening too. Yeah, and so all those related right so like All the related stuff to that as well with fewer innings being pitched by it by starters, you know, I Think maybe like career like starting pitchers hitting like a 300 win mark 200 250 300 win win mark. I don't think you're gonna see a lot of that Like Calderon Calderon Jr.'s a consecutive game streak. I don't think I don't think that's going down What about hit streak? DiMaggio's hit streak. Is that going down in baseball? I feel like that. I mean, that's a crazy record, but I feel like that Could happen And I'm talking within a single season not not wraparound Red Fars 300 inception is ever being broken says Logan probably not You have to have a combination of a quarterback that can have the opportunity to throw that many interceptions So it should be kind of a crazy combo I guess if you if he I guess James Winston could probably do to keep blowing James Winston out there I feel like I Used to think that that hit streak would never happen You know the hit streak record would never be broken But now I'm starting to think Could it be? Oh easy Matt would Easy bread farve most in Bethel State funds. Is that right? Is that record never going? He's being a pretty litigious about that Matt. He might come after you might sue you Don't sue me bread. Yeah, don't don't sue don't sue Matt wood. Come on. He's not wrong. Don't sue me. Don't sue me Don't sue me Allegedly allegedly allegedly There's Brandon Lowe, Brandon Lowe that is Nate Lowe Brandon Lowe Tim and the Rays Trevor Larnock to 99 for the Twins. That's gonna be for Daniel Did the Buccaneers really lose 26 football games in a row? I Feel like there I feel like a team could beat that I feel like a team could do that Anthony Young's consecutive loss rate. How many how many? Was it 20 losses 18 losses something like that Pitcher Anthony Young I mean, that's just some bad luck. It was Mitch Hannigar and Jose Abreu to 10 Chris Perry and the White Sox But the thing is like I don't know How many of those win I we got to take a look at this at some point You got to investigate this Tristan with Mitch Hannigar to 75 and Spencer Torkelson to 50 Nice met Wood border design from the late 80s. That's gonna go to Stephen Carney and the Tigers Like he must have been pitching decently enough for them to keep rolling him out there But not well enough to get wins But well enough pitching well enough to get like decisions We've got to we've got to look at the Anthony Young game log Because it's like kind of like a weird It's just sort of a weird sort of thing. Well, I don't know if it was 20 in a row But it was like it was almost that bad. Yeah, he went two and 14 in 1992 and one and 16 in 1993 both with the the Mets But they gave him starts, you know what I mean like that's kind of the crazy part Although some of them were looks like some of them were in relief But I don't know the fact that they still gave him 121 innings in 1992 and 100 innings in 1993 Like it's just like they just kept rolling him out there 72 at a 99 Hoy Park Uh Pittsburgh that's gonna be for Stephen Stephen Carney. It's sort of like uh It's sort of like James Winston in the 30 30 club 30 touchdowns 30 interceptions like It's a weird anyone with that many interceptions Like you're never going to get to that many interceptions because when you're trending that way You're gonna you're gonna usually be benched as a qb, but when you're also matching that With touchdowns, I mean it gets weird. All right another box. It's a wraparound record But Chris Dave is going 54 consecutive at bats without a hit Yeah Doesn't LeBron have a bad set right set right. Yeah, guess what Matt would LeBron leads leads the NBA in career points Also leads the NBA in career turnovers I'm pretty sure he does. I'm pretty sure he has the record in career turnovers Which is kind of fun. I mean, I guess if you play in the league long enough You're gonna have some good records or have some bad records That'd be I feel like that's uh, that's a classic like Any like LeBron haters classic lines like yeah, well Yeah, it's not that impressive. He also leads the Leads the NBA All-time turnovers We're like, all right fair Chris Davis though that that's that's kind of a that's sort of a rough one I mean because Sometimes like that's that's just mental at that point, right We're like, you know hitters will say like Yeah, even the most confident there's be like, yeah, sometimes it creeps in your head you go over four you go over eight You start pressing then you think you're never going to be able to hit again And then then that just cascades and compounds So imagine going over whatever Chris Davis went at the end of the previous season Now think about the storyline as soon as spring training starts as soon as we get closer to opening day Hey, Chris every reporter every fan every player Take a you know like Gotta get a hit first day, right? You know like so the pressure to even get a hit the first day You know then then you're just that gets in your head Then you go over opening day over the second day over the series And then that just cascades and compounds ah That's that's got it. That's got to get in your head There's josh donaldson to 99 for the twins Chris davis, joey, gallaud, cody, bennett record drop-off. You want to throw yellets into that that group too? although You know as a former dodge former fan of you know a fan of cody bellinger I feel like injuries maybe kind of gone in the way But those other guys did any of those other guys chris davis, joey gallow. Did they carry injuries? I think they just dropped off That's for tim and the rays Eric ganye's Consecutive saves record. Yeah, yellow. I think it's injuries as well But this guy I think just got the opportunity. Maybe there were some injuries Maybe there were some injuries there as well, but There's mike trout blue Six out of 75 it's going to go nice with that auto Rob and the angels Matt manning goes to steven carney of the tigers 75 We got matt chadman for the a's a's addition to 50 84 consecutive saves It's a lot of saves that's That's at least that's what two seasons worth of saves Is jed laury to 75? Mike towers and what about what about 10 points in an hl game? Could that be broken? Jed laury to 75 and a freddy freeman die cut to 99 dodgers daniel Dilo thinks maybe like a leafs game or a oilers game Something like that. Yeah matt's thinking maybe like oilers You know some why I got like a wild 10-9 sort of game I mean that's like a You can't just get 10 points just goals wise right? I feel like I feel like you got to have a decent team around someone you can Where you can get the space for goals And there'll be other threats where you're going to pick up some assists And then you get that sort of sort of like that 10-9 and then the other team has to keep scoring Right so because for you to keep scoring. So yeah 10-9 game. That's where that's what it where it would be Be it's something like that a high scoring game There's gallo to 15 speaking of joey gallo yankees addition going to tristan Yeah, it'd be something like that right connor. Yeah connor mc david four goals six assists Yeah, I still you still have a dry side all as a teammate Yeah, that could be the one And you've you've seen how fast they can score like they can I've seen connor mc david score within like the first minute of the game or something like that So you can bang out those numbers pretty quickly if the conditions are just right you know like If that if that's if that net is looking like a soccer goal For connor mc david he's just kind of in that zone and then he runs into a team that's like in a bad slump You know a team where the where the Or the goal is just in a bad slump And the oilers don't like defending anyway, so they're they'll give up goals So connor will still have to keep pressing on offense. Yeah, that's the formula right there When are the oilers playing the coyotes When's the next oilers coyotes match? No, maybe the coyotes are not powerful enough offensively to keep pouring in goals Maybe just has to be kind of like a mid of 500 club 500 hockey teams Where the goalie's just just in a bad slump that week Because connor mc david finished out his career in edmonton, right? Yeah, it can't be a blow. You're right So it would have to be you have to where connor would still have to be aggressive Or the oilers team but it's up to be aggressive Imagine that it's straight to the king with marty mc sorely I mean, there would be a There would there would be some old oilers fans who would who would just Who would just drop dead? They they didn't think twice in their lifetime something like that could ever happen Some would drop dead It's jared kellanek to 99 You can get a reliable goal. I think he could stay but imagine mc david in a big market Yeah, imagine if like like Mike trout is on the angels, you know and You know and for for more veteran players, he's he's still consistently one of the And even his rookie cards, right still consistent one of the top top guys value-wise in the hobby Dodgers trade turn are going to deal Now imagine if If mike trout Was a yankee. Oh, there's the super Super super cabrion haze One of one steven carney with the pittsburgh pirates nice All aboard the big hit express We had said dilo set the one of one line at three and a half That's one Yeah, the over is now Down from over is now down from plus 250. It's now down to plus 120 If you're into that sort of thing is the under still like under three and a half minus 110 Thanks, grizzly bees I mean, I couldn't I couldn't have pulled this without steven carney buying the pirates I appreciate that eight out of 99 louise robert chris and the light socks All right, we got kyle schover for ed in the red socks 75 and another louise robert to 50 for chris and the light socks You put the oh, I see I see Under three and a half still minus 135 louise robert his his sort of knock is helped right because if he's healthy then If he's healthy then he could be He could potentially be a what a 30 30 guy He still has a lot of bases doesn't he still a lot of bases Is the ability to sell out of bases 2020 guy 30 30 guy maybe All right next box So we are but we are halfway through this break ladies done about another 30 40 minutes to go Rex thinks that they should change the draft so that way the garbage teams gets the best picks There should be a random aspect to it. That's exactly that's exactly how the draft works In most major american sports tracks the worst teams Will get the the the best picks So teams are the worst records will usually get the number one overall pick And then the best teams will get the low 30s the 30s picks Oh, you mean don't You think they should change the draft so that way garbage teams don't get them Wait, so what do you mean where where the garbage teams don't get the best picks Is you're saying the best teams should get the best picks? Or you just want completely random Random so that everyone has an evil shot at number one. Yeah, I think that's so entrenched in american sports I don't think it's gonna happen Just like promotion and relegation In soccer that that could never happen here in the united states hunter-green die cut But that's kind of like what the what the premier league does You know the english premier league just the best teams get the best players Is jackson co-art of 15 that might eliminate that might be that's right. That might be that might eliminate some tanking if If everyone if every team had an equal shot at the number one pick It's freddie freeman to 50 Is miguel kebrer to 75 miggy going to detroit steven And there's wander franco 34 out of 99 Nice ride and low insert Is jake berger to 25 and another wander franco not numbered Immanuel reverer to 75 That'll be for kansas city. That'll be for hosé The wander franco will be for the raised him with the numbered one and now the base Ride and low insert jake berger Going to chris and the white socks. That's the 25 Yeah, I do like that rexham story I haven't finished all the episodes of that but I've heard the idea floated the bottom four teams having to like a basketball having to play attorneys or anything to get the number one pick I have heard that something like that mba wants to have like a mid-season tournament um Kind of like a cup match in in like soccer and premier league soccer Which I kind of like I would why not just just get rid of the all-star game Just get rid of the mba all-star game I guess you can you can keep like the skills And the three-point shooting in the dunk contests like just keep that And then just have like two weeks Where the just have a two week mid-season break You know match happen going to the a's daniel have a two week mid-season break with the bottom four teams You know or or I guess Would you be able to do in the middle of the season? Maybe at the end of the season end of the season have the bottom four teams do a little tournament and that Which would kind of be cool imagine if you had because you know you hear the story all the time. It's like You know here's like the mba going into the playoffs and your superstars on the best teams are Are battling like a nagging ankle injury a sore hammy this and that You do the post you do the end of season tournament for the number one overalls pick Of the four worst teams or whatever have like a week week and a half tournament And then the winner of that tournament gets You know that you have your superstars they can rest before the playoffs and then we've got high quality playoffs All the teams are rested ready to go That don't have a 30 player home run derby. You know how long that would take Imagine 30 players in a home run derby field. Oh Can you tell by that that's the how long would that take the home run derby would like 10 players. I feel like takes all night It's like a three hour tv experience Yeah, I suppose we got rid of the all-star game. Yeah, the whole weekend would be the home run derby Yeah, the load management thing. That's not so it's not so good You know, I always had this crazy idea for the NBA. There's Javier Baez to 99 So what do they play they play 82 games? There's Jesse Winker to 10 What if The NBA every team Plays each other once home and away. How many games would that be? Premier League does that right? I can't math that If it's 30 teams right and you're with 29 times two because you're not playing yourself Is that 58 games? Or maybe 57 Because now you don't play each other twice. You don't play each other home. You don't play yourself away So that's a lot fewer than 82 games Then the expectation is Players better play every single game Right and since it's well, there's one home in a way think about how important like this is the one time Giannis is coming into town. You got to go to that game You know Hey, and you can advertise it. This is the one game one time. Giannis is coming into town Time to come out to the arena. Go watch Giannis and your home team Far fewer games every ball every basketball player every superstar better be playing all 58 of those games Oh, pito anzo Nice. It's going to go to ryan herald and the Mets. That's his Mets There you go, ryan Five out of 25 as well Yeah, I thought it was gonna be an out of five for a second, but it's out of 25. Still good. Still good. There he is. There you go, ryan Giancarlo Stanton to 99 Alec Minoa to 50. Yeah, that's one thing that I wish the That I wish would be a little more distinctive like the I think the out of five is a slightly more reddish color than that bronze-ish color Maybe next year Alec Minoa going to Toronto. That's for Dilo And Giancarlo Stanton for Tristan and the Yankees. That's to 99 So that's kind of like my crazy idea Right, so they so each team will only play like 57 58 games Add a couple of playoff teams and then you can still do the Do the week and a half where they do the little mini tournament between the four teams The four bottom teams before the playoff start then you know who has number one overall pick All right, so there's still some competitive basketball for the bad teams at the end of the year Super stars get rested even more right and then they go into the playoffs And hopefully we see A great product there 99 out of 99 wonder franco. There you go, Tim Nice die cut. The die cuts look cool this year I don't think they did the die cuts last year. Did they Sammy long for the Giants that's going to go to chris parent. That's to 75 So that's my crazy if I was commissioner Came for the day and I can change anything about the NBA I would just kind of do that And shorter season is good too. I mean, it's like 82 games is Is a long one And then there's no there's no back to backs You're you know that one team is coming to your town That one time a year You know, so now each individual regular season matchup becomes a little more intense It's fewer season fewer games to mess up, right? You know, you got to have You know, you got to be winning x amount of 60 every games. You want the number one seed or something like that It's a lot, you know, it's a little bit more challenging when there's fewer games Fewer opportunities to make up those losses to get more competitive regular season games It feels a little more nfl because it would just be like You know far fewer games just home in a way Right. Yeah, and get rid of the back to backs. You got more time in between You know, you build all these days in between And guess what? If you have 58 games and you're playing fewer games more practice time in between you're probably getting a cleaner product mba wise You know where you can make a mid-season adjustments in your game because you can you have more practice time Yeah, the spreads are crazy different like on a back-to-back you know, there's always that classic rule of thumb of like Player coming player in like dfs daily fantasy player coming off a back-to-back on an mba game They kind of fade those players So that's my idea Now why why it wouldn't happen? The owners don't want to lose those regular season games. Even if you give them more playoff games I mean, and I would just tell the owners you just charge more for those 58 games. There's fewer games. You just Divide up what you but I don't know. I think the owners want that want those regular season games So I don't think I think concessions unions too. I think that's a little tough concessions unions won't like that beers are already expensive enough And so ticket prices are one thing, but it's it's not there is there's like a cap on what What a human will spend on a beer at a ball game At some point there'll be a revolt So There's a bobby wit jr. That's going to go to the royals. That'll be for jose Baseball unders on getaway days midweek getaway days Yeah, I wonder how that will change With the with some of the timing rules Kind of don't mind that in the regular season, but I hope there'll be no clock In the postseason There's matt ulson to 15 That'll be for the a's d low luke williams to 75 for the fillies Uh, yeah, we got a petal anzo autograph out of 25 Here's one sodas 75 die cut for the gnats jeremy luke williams going to the fillies. That's for d low and his fighting fills That's to 75 It's one soto that one was numbered two Numbered as well in a julio rodriguez riding low not numbered but a cool insert Tristan with the mariners The one soto jeremy and the nationals One out of 50 nice got that cool die cut on the ride and low insert With baseball would I do it would we do we want to trim games in baseball? nice orange bobby wit jr 13 out of 25 nice That'll be for jose and the royals I wouldn't mind rolling back the number of regular season games to what it was in the 50s Something like that Is that nt case break gonna break tonight if it sells out? Yeah That's up to you that's up to you guys in the chat Not me though. If you sell it out, we'll do it. We got time for it Got time on the schedule All right die cut wander for tim And the wander franco for tim You ask one of those math people who do betting out of the rooms and he seemed to indicate that there's a small To see learn for lower scores on getaway days Yes, because the alms want to get out of there too. Absolutely Baseball betting believe it or not is especially if you're a baseball fan Like I am and you know the outside of my dodge is all I'll watch just a lot of baseball in general um and so You know So I'm going to watch these games. I may as well bet on them betting baseball is actually Is actually quite fun And it is the sport where a lot of and I'm not anywhere close to being a pro a professional sports better Sports gambler, but the pros say That that's where you can find The most edge and profits during a baseball season, you know in the nfl That's a that's a spread base game. So that's And those those lines are usually dialed in pretty pretty well By the by the books they're really good at making book with the nfl And there's a lot of parody In uh in the nfl too more than baseball and basketball basketball is another spread base sport. That's also really difficult to bet on Baseball is not that's just wins and losses and There's a lot of games 162 games every year and what? maximum 15 games a night, right? It's hard to end different starters every night. It's not like You know, it's not like my homes is You know my homes is playing every week, right? You know the main guy that touches the ball the most starters change every day You know offense is a may not but starters change every day even for the best teams So there's a lot of value on uh I mean, I've heard some people that this is not a It's not an easy rule, but Uh, it's not an easy rule, but um I think like if you bet on And you'd have to do it every single day to I think make it work But if you bet every single underdog in every baseball game throughout the entire season then um You may only win 30 percent of the time, but your return on investment would be plus I don't know about how much but you'd make a profit Right because it gains like that Three years ago Verlander switching with the Astros against the orio's orio's money line was like minus 400 and the o's one the o's were like plus 4 20 So for those of you not who are not familiar with this sort of stuff Minus 400 means you'd have to lay you'd have to pay 400 dollars just to win 100 dollars back Right now if you're if you've got even a little bit of business acumen you realize oh That doesn't sound very good I have to put 400 dollars down just to win 100 dollar That doesn't seem like a very it's not it's not a very big advantage. So You know when you see a number like that sometimes you just kind of auto bet it Maybe not with 100 bucks, but maybe like with 10 dollars, but like You know plus 4 20 means you only give the book 100 dollars to try to win 420 dollars back Now you're thinking oh, that's a much nicer return It is Now the likelihood of that happening Obviously diminishes you can even do the math at what What the implied win percentage is per whatever the money line is So I think at plus 4 20 that would imply the books are suggesting that The orio's are going to win 20 percent of the time But if you have a model that tells you if you have a betting model that says hey We think the orio's can win 35 percent at the time and that 25 percent is wrong Put a little money on the orio. Let's see what happens There's chas mccormick 23 out of 25 That's for houston and that spices up the game a little bit again as a baseball fan. I'm going to be watching these games anyway so If I'm going to watch Orioles astros on mlb.tv You know, why not bet the underdog and see what happens the hard part with baseball though And this happens to me every season like April may I'll be really into it You know, and I'll be I'll be cranking out grinding out numbers and Building formulas and studying up studying, uh, you know, whatever starters and numbers and crunch on it And then this just becomes a slog, you know, that means like it's like a whole other job and then you end up Not doing it as much and then But it's fun though It's jaren durand to 50 if you're into that sort of thing Well, maybe in previous seasons grizzled. He's not this year You have to ask if there's any real degenerates in you who bet no run first inning Uh I don't I I don't usually bet totals but, um There's trey manzine in 99 orials edition for daniel and jose abray to 75 white sox edition for chris parent I don't but I know that A lot of people do have some fun with that I see that with um with first quarter under In um in football. I know a lot of people like to bet that usually it's like it's nine and a half Sometimes 10 But usually teams don't really score a lot in the first quarter. I think there's some value in that Same with baseball like especially if you have good if you have like top I don't know top 20 starter Dilo and especially if there's top 20 starters facing each other Why not why not put a little bit on first run, you know, no inning no run first innings It's a 75 on that to tease I mean that it might be with two top 20 pitchers. It might be like minus 150 minus 120 maybe minus 125 on a on a first run First inning no run No run first inning that is But it can be a fun little sweat there was a I listened to like a number of like gambling podcasts and stuff like that and um There was one year in hockey for things for like some random team blackhawks or Maybe there's a few teams blackhawks or rangers, but it was consistently It was you could take first period unders And then you would be up like some ridiculous amount it would be like, you know, your roi would be plus 60 percent or something by by betting these teams first period First period unders and usually Under it's usually the line is like one and a half. I think for a first period goal total Yeah, home run. Yeah, home run bets are pretty fun. Do you deal Daniel? Do you do a baseball daily fantasy at all? I could never get that right I'm no good at daily fantasy in general, but I just can't I just can't get that especially with a full field of players I can usually like I can you know, I'll win every once in a while if I just do like Lakers daily fantasy just like Laker showdown Or like a Dodgers one like if it's Dodgers So-and-so showdown, you know, I've watched the Dodgers far more than any other teams. So Sort of easy to be like, oh, yeah, well I know the hitting tendency or something like that So I can do like a Dodgers Showdown Dodgers and another team kind of showdown lineup and I bet a dollar. I mean, maybe I'll get a dollar 25 dollar 50 back or something like that Very low stakes for me on daily fantasy But Getting home doing home run props You know, there's far more value. I feel like in that doing home run props There's Otani die cut Kettle Marta to 99 and Kevin Gossman to 75 Daniel, I don't know if you're a big reader Do you read? Are you do enjoy the reading? If so, I just dropped a link in the chat to a book that I enjoyed By Joe Peter X wall street guy who ended up You know Figuring out this algorithm for betting on baseball But it's called trading bases How a wall street trader made a fortune betting on baseball It came out 2014 ish. I don't know how much of that some of that info might be a little dated but But um, also, he's a Philly guy. He was he was so that you definitely have to read it. He was raised in westchester pa And uh was like, you know suffered the heartaches his bio says he suffered the heartaches of the 70s 1970s Philly being a 1970s Philly's fan So he's a Philly dude wall street guy I think the the book kind of mixes in a little bit of his own personal Biography which which is interesting. I think what happened is um Yeah, I think they got it on on audible. There's some numbers some math involved. There's math in the book so I I might Might even recommend the the paperback So I think there's some numbers and charts that might be a little more Uh a little easier to to look at on in book format Unless the audible has the pdf attachments for that uh john lester st. Louis matthew wood but the story is is that he Was a new york wall street guy He was walking down the street. He was crossing the street In like manhattan or something a car whips around And uh hits him breaks his leg and um And so I think I think he originally lives in san francisco, but he He broke his leg. He couldn't it was bad. It was so bad. He was holed up in his apartment for Months and couldn't even go back home. It couldn't get on a plane To go back home. So he was just So he was just there his family's back in san francisco. I mean they could visit but it was just like So a lot of pain And to to manage the pain he would watch west late night west coast baseball And then started using his wall street numbers background To uh to start hammering out formulas and stuff like that Forbidding on baseball Jorge with the potters and then kind of made essentially a baseball like hedge fund or something like that which initially didn't do well, but But then ended up making himself and his friends a lot of money There's kasey mysa 99, but it's a it's a really cool story Apparently he created a baseball hedge fund And had an astounding 41 return in his first year But yeah, it's a it's a good read Even even with the math. I think it's uh, he's a good writer. It's a pretty pretty breezy pretty breezy book and if you if you're already a d gen, you know, but A smarter d gen then you might want to check it out because there's some there's some principles that you can apply There he's big on are you familiar with the kelly criterion? Here's louise gill 20 out of 50 Yankees that's for tristan I think if you're if you're talking to enough d gens that that word will have come up I'm sure in some of your conversations All right. Nice Julio Rodriguez For tristan in seattle Final box coming up. Yeah, do some research on that. That's an interesting kelly criterion is interesting one. It's basically It's essentially a formula on which to I think finance folks use it But it's just to basically figure out Instead of betting set units, which is the recommended strategy If you're feeling a little friskier, you can use the kelly criterion to To calculate edges and then figure out how much you want to Play off that edge the example was if The orio's being plus 420 or whatever if that implies. I don't know if this is correct, but You like you can do the math on your own, but let's say for example the The the line is plus 420 and that implies a winning percentage by vegas as a 20% chance that the orio's will win right for example. I'm just making up numbers, but If you have a model, let's say you can even use espn's win prediction percentage or 538.com's win percentage thing And let's say Or fan graphs has win prob win percentages too. Take all those numbers together and let's say all those web searches saying it's You know orio's actually have a 35 percent chance at winning right which should be plus 300 Instead of plus 450 you can already see how big that edge is And then using the kelly criterion you can see how much you should bet So if there's no edge, you're not maybe maybe you pass on that game But if the edge is that big then you're betting bigger on that game So which is kind of a risky strategy if you think about it because You know, you're still talking about a bad team That's probably going to lose More times than they're not But if you hit Right, yeah, the bet size is always controversial No, it is but if you hit and you place the bigger bet on that on that risky play Okay, so that'll start start making up for the other other losses. So it's it's a Yeah, it's interesting It's worth looking up and and I think there's few a few other sports that that will really work Uh sports betting wise, but baseball is definitely one of them where you can apply that and get edges Just because there's so many data points for baseball and like fan graphs ESPN 538 there are a number of sites that just I just give you that information for free Stick with us daniel and I'm sure I'm sure once I start making official plays In the break schedule, there's a joe's picks tab And I'm sure that I'll that I'll re-explain all of this But for anybody who's just interested in this subject and not really not even you don't even have to be a gambler to enjoy The trading basis book. I'm not this is not an affiliate link. I don't uh I'm not getting paid to promote this book But it's just personally a good read that I enjoyed and I think even casual fans And casual bettors might get something out of it too Another wander franco No, I'm not a tout. Dilo call one at 1 800 jaspy picks joe jaspy is five and two on the week He'll give you one pick for free and for five dollars a day He'll give you his best bet of the week Baseball football basketball college basketball. He's a winner winner winner Don't buy picks ladies and gentlemen. Don't buy picks. Don't fall thankfully I I grew up with a number of other gamblers and and we quickly Learned horror stories and learned lessons of people who were like buy or call those tout services and they Tristan with the cubs And uh, yeah, just don't do it Mo I mean, I'm sure there's some that are that are fine But obviously they're touts because they're touting their service and more often than not I mean their bets aren't public You don't know what you don't know what the records are and no one's actually tracking these guys Because we're degenerates, right? We're not tracking the the the tout And saying no actually he was three and five last week not five and three But no one's actually doing that And there's a boba shed. That's boba shed going to daniel Here's jeff mcneil for the Mets. That's for ryan herald and the other thing is Some of the more shadier ones You'll call in And they'll give you they they basically split the difference on the pigs They'll tell half the callers this team half the callers another team. So that's why the other half You know then half the people be like no this tout service works. It's definitely the best Be smart folks. Don't fall into that trap. There's wander franco Maybe the only thing I pay for now in that in that world is uh, it's action network 65 is 75 lance lynch. Oh white talks chris parent. It's hilarious. How many times they say the number? Why is it hilarious rex? I'll tell you what rex before you make fun of that In the radio industry, especially in advertising, they tell you that um that the optimal times to repeat information Is three times to have that settle in uh, someone's head to remember the number Why do I do? That's why I say the website all the time Jasper's case breaks.com Where do you go for personal breaks at jasper's breaks on instagram live? That's at jasper's breaks on instagram Jason jasper at jasper's breaks on instagram.com Slash jasper's breaks at jasper's breaks But yeah, it's been scientifically At least the advertisers have said it's scientifically proven that that you have to That three times is the optimal number For information retention bobby with junior die cut That goes to the royals jose So it's not hilarious rex. It's smart It's marketing It's advertising That's how we get you to buy stuff Yeah, my my welcome to k jasper 105 point jasper playing nothing but the hits breaking nothing but the hits All right, nice break ladies and gentlemen got all that nice stuff. We've got the bobby wood jr to 25 The julio rodriguez inserts matt olson was to 15 Got the wander franco green die cut 99 out of 99 Autos are few and far between Peter lanzo auto is your auto five out of 25 nice low number there I think one of these was numbered. Yeah, that wander was numbered It's got the torkelson. Why about this? There was a second autograph. I forgot about it because it was a redemption mike trout autograph. That was pretty nice bobby wood jr green And the right the cabriona haze one of one almost forgot about that Great stuff ladies and good convo fun times fun break. Thanks for watching. Thanks for breaking with us I'm joe for jaspyscasewrakes.com. I'll see you next time for the next one. Bye. Bye