 For the first time in what seems like forever, we have 13 games on this week's main at Daily Fantasy Football, so as a result, I think we've got good plays at each position in most salary tiers, question mark, and it's kind of enticing. I feel like this is one of the more fun slates we've had in a bit. Might not be the best games, might not be the highest totals, but I'm pretty jazzed about this week. We're going to break down which guys we are jazzed about, break down our priorities among the studs, where we're seeing value and much more to get you set for week 17 over on FanDuel.com. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Numberfire. That's right here on the FanDuel podcast network and Numberfire.com. My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for Numberfire.com. Joined here as always by Brendan Gedula. He is the senior managing editor of Numberfire.com, brain in week 17, coming in hot. And I think that like I said, pretty fun plays across the board. How are you doing today? I'm good and I'm better because of your optimism. You basically said like we got plays at all different salaries. If the games are bad, some other negative things, but overall you were able to spin it as a positive. So that makes me feel a lot better. So thank you. Are you disagreeing with the sentiment that this is a fun slate? I think it's a good slate. Okay, but I feel better because I sometimes like my worry when I'm like, when I feel good about a slate is that I'm overconfident in the value plays because that can happen. It has happened with me in the past for sure. And I could see that being true this week too. I could see myself being a bit too high on some of these guys. But the fact that you also think it's an okay slate, it says to me that it's not just me being overconfident in these guys. They might actually be legitimately decent plays. Yeah, I mean, it's gonna like, I mean, the slates always start with quarterback to a degree. Like if you don't have sure fires, high ceiling guys at quarterback, it's a very different setup. This week, we have a few names that, you know, could do big things, but maybe not as many. And usually we are, you know, allocating a lot of salary to quarterback. If we're going to go away from that, and we have values, that can be a little bit scary because then I will sort of like double de prioritize the studs at certain positions. So, you know, it's just a little bit different. I think it's a, not really a heat check slate as like 2022 heat checks late fall. It's more of like a 2019-ish, maybe before rushing quarterbacks became as prevalent as they were because, you know, we don't have a whole lot in that regard for this week, which means we can use guys in good game environments who may not be blazing it. Jared golf, not a blazer, but I think probably a guy we both don't mind for blazer. Yes, trailblazer in my heart. But we're going to break that down golf, break down why we think he's an option, break down that game, because it's, I think the best game on the slate by a pretty decent margin and get you set for week 17 in just one second. But first, a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts. Not only will we have a show next week on Thursday to preview week 18. We will also be here throughout the post. He's right here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed and live on the Fandal YouTube page. Go search for the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts. Check out the Fandal YouTube page as well. And while you're there, if you like what you hear, leave us a rating and review looking to get more out of the NFL this season. Well, now is the perfect time to download Fandal America's number one sports book because new customers getting no sweat first bed up to $1,000. That's free bets back. 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Gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit fandal.com slash RG in Arizona 1-800-NEXT-SEP or text NEXT-SEPTIFI 3342 in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1-800-NEXT-SEPTIFI 3042 in Kansas NY OMING 1-800-522-4700 and in KansasKSGamblingHealth.com in Louisiana 1-877-770-STOP in Maryland MDGamblingHealth.org in New York 1-877-8 hope and wire text hope and why and in West Virginia 1-800-GAMBLER.net. Let's dig into the slate over here for week number 17 and Brandon to me I think the standout theme of this slate is that I actually have somewhat reliable value plays I think at least at running back receiver and tight end and that allows me to take a very top heavy approach where I can jam in Christian McCaffrey and Justin Jefferson in the same lineup and buddy do I want to. So to me the key for this slate is I'm going to be a bit more top heavy a bit more stars and scrubs you than I have been of late what is your overall overview over over over of this late well overall Jim if I'm speaking in terms of overallness while wearing overalls no okay too far yeah I think I'm sticking on like that quarterback conversation where you know we have I think at least specifically with Justin Fields and Mahomes in like a tough on paper matchup two guys who can still break the slate open and as much as we love Jared Goff you know he has the ability if everything falls the right way to match one of those games once you account for salary but a lot of this comes down to how confident I am in uh going with a value quarterback because there are some names on the list that have not been on the list for a while someone like an Aaron Rodgers even potentially that scored 20 fatal points yet this year right so like if you're playing as someone like an Aaron Rodgers who's gonna who's gonna rate out generally well and like a projections model from like a point per dollar standpoint if you're gonna do that you're still betting against at least two guys who can you know put up 30 pretty easily so I think a lot of it comes down to how I'm starting my lineups with quarterback and uh how heavily you know like let's say I'm even building 10 lineups how many of those are Mahomes and Fields and if I'm if I got like seven or eight of them does it even make sense to differentiate and get like sprinkles of good guys probably does but that's just not usually how I play so I think I'm really stuck on like Mahomes and Fields versus the Field yeah and those two guys are capable like you said of 30 to 40 points and that's that's unique for this lake because not a lot of guys here can do that the the difference is we're betting against two guys this week as opposed to betting against five because there's no Josh Allen no Joe Burrow um I don't know I mean Dak at times can be in that discussion he was really good last week uh Herbert can be in that discussion so we have a lot of these like slate breakers off the slate which means we have more flexibility to use guys who might not typically have a ceiling so Trevor Lawrence not a huge runner but if he's good to go this week you know he could be in that discussion um you know if you want to talk yourself into Kirk Cousins you can potentially um do that as well golf isn't that discussion and that's a different setup than we typically have at quarterback where we're just trying to jam in guys who can pound you for 30 you might not need 30 this week which is a big deviation from the typical setup yeah and if like I would say probably this is what week 17 for 12 13 of the 16 weeks so far I've been trying to allocate at least 8000 or more yeah quarterback correct you know and the 8000 to 76 is a small thing but 9000 to like 74 73 something like that that's very different and that's going to be just a different setup than I'm used to so I think that that's for sure uh my my slate my overall slate overall overview so maybe you can use the value plays we'll discuss at running back and wide receiver to get two fields in the home to get those slate breakers in your lineup um maybe that's what where we wind up settling in for this week let's dig into the injuries though and part of the reason why we don't have a lot of high upside rushing quarterbacks here is because it seems like Jillian Hurts likely to sit for a second consecutive game which means garter menshew will start he's going to be starting though without lane johnson lane johnson is uh he has a core injury soon to set out the rest of the regular season a j brown limited wednesday with a knee injury mild sanders didn't practice because of a knee injury we'll talk about the eagles in the trends section yes I thought I changed that but I did we still got that there in that same game chris a lot they returned to a limited session following his hamstring injury without him last week the saints played a rotation at wide receiver but that was also in massive massive wins they didn't prioritize the guys who can block at wide receiver there I don't think Keith Kirkwood you know is getting snaps over a sheet jahid in a normal setup but any interest in the saints offense against the eagles this week it's the saints actually I think have a shot at the playoffs so I could be wrong about uh holy um I don't I'd probably get there and stat I think like we're gonna have to answer that question of are we taking imperfect stacks this week or we're trying to find the best like singular value plays usually for us we're forcing in stacks as best we can I don't know how much I'm going to stack up this game yeah so I guess it depends on how we feel about the other side and I guess maybe we can revisit this once you give us a trend yeah I think that there are some guys who could be like somewhat interesting the saints but there's no one I'm like dying to use a lot of days been lower upside for a while now which is his point Rashid Shahid I've used at times but hasn't had more than five targets in a game yet 56 isn't bad for a guy who can burn um so I don't hate that but the saints do have a three percent shot at the playoffs still so they could still make it they could still win the nsc south I believe um which is nuts but um yeah so it's there are considerations there but as mentioned we have 13 games I'm not sure if that one is going to wind up being a big needle with me Teddy Bridgewater likely to start for the Dolphins this week with Tua Tango by Loa back in concussion protocol they're facing the Patriots defense very tough opponent there so with Teddy starting are you out on Tyree Kill, Jalen Waddle and the running backs here for the Dolphins I don't love the situation I also don't love the salaries specifically for the receivers I know I'm smart enough to know uh that Tyree Kill and Jalen Waddle can still flamethrower any situation uh that they're in just because of how good they are but when we're talking about like priority plays not necessarily seeing how Tyree and Waddle are the true priority plays at receiver this week and yeah there's 13 games yeah a lot of them are still imperfect and we're gonna have to kind of do some stuff that doesn't make us feel great but you couldn't really pay me to stack the Patriots on the other side so I think that also is gonna factor in or I'm just gonna be lower on this situation as a whole would you consider Jeffrey Wilson or Jeff I don't know whatever it goes by um Jeff Wilson Jr. yeah sorry that's but shouldn't it be Jeffrey if you have the junior in there shouldn't it be Jeff anyway um yeah can you do that can you like I think you do whatever you want but I actually don't know how it works uh but he's his salary is $6,000 uh a 60 snap rate last week but just nine carries and two targets I think given it's a backup quarterback it's a very tough defense I don't want to chase a bad situation for a low salary so that's why I'm probably not there but didn't want to at least ask you about it yeah I mean he had a hundred percent of the red zone carries but it was just two last week I don't know how many red zone plays they'll run in this spot it feels like every Patriots game my model is in total for this game at 36 and it's it's at 41 and a half so I like the under despite it being low yeah I was gonna say it just feels like every Patriots game in perpetuity unless they score a defensive touchdown even then it might go under but so I just and and for you like no no Tyreek no no wattle I can't not in the not a 13 games late yeah uh the Raiders benching Derek Carr for Jared Siddham this week um they're facing the 49ers so facing the 49ers defense backup quarterback high salaries can we just say no to Devontae Addison Josh Jacobs this week I can say no to Devontae easily you should say no to Josh Jacobs too I'm not gonna I'm not gonna say yes okay I'm not gonna say yes to Josh Jacobs but it does feel like one of those one of the situations where there's like not a whole lot of justification to play Josh Jacobs unless you say they're gonna lean on him yeah I've done this twice I guess people I shouldn't have drawn attention to it but they're gonna like lean on Josh Jacobs and therefore he's a good play but I think he's not a good play because of the offensive expectations so I'm out but it does feel like he's gonna put up like 28 there was also some wording this week they were saying they want to give the young guys some looks and that was regarding Derek Carr Jared Siddham but Josh Jacobs is a free agent they probably want to get a look at Zemir White at some point I'm not saying they're gonna bench Josh Jacobs but I wouldn't be shocked if his snap rate scales back to like 60% to get a read on Zemir White there so I'm out on both those guys Mike White gonna start for the Jets this week after getting his rib injury clear they're facing Seattle it's a must-win game for the Jets how does having White start alter your view of the Jets in this game once again it comes down to how much I want to stack the other side like I'm really trying to find the games that I can talk myself into both sides of um sounds like maybe we'll get Tyler Lockett he's able to like catch the ball without pain if we can get Lockett at 6000 a much more open uh to try to force in some Jets Garrett Wilson 73 we know like at his at the peak his workload can be well worth that so I think like that's interesting just don't see a whole lot of other ways that I'm gonna get exposure here so who in this game is playable outside of Garrett Wilson Kenneth Walker potentially at a lower salary Metcalf and then maybe Lockett well I think that's a lot of guys honestly yeah it is but there's only one jet in that right but that one Jets pretty good I also think that we've been we've been lower on Wilson for a while now I think with his salary back down to 73 and with further confirmation that his role is sick I'm really receptive to him as 73 the one issue I have is not sure how often I'll be in this range because I want to get to Jefferson if I use Jefferson and Christian McCaffrey I will not be in this range I need to be at like the the DJ shark level uh the Romeo Dobbs level Jelani Woods level uh versus living here so it kind of does come at the expense of Jefferson but I'm not going to have Jefferson every lineup so in the lines where I don't have him I think Wilson grades out really well I do like Kenneth Walker the third um at 67 because even with the injury last week he still had 100 plus yards in scrimmage he played well I know he wasn't he didn't look healthy but he played well still so I think that he's interesting you mentioned Lockett he was at the Seahawks walkthrough yesterday catching footballs and doing stuff fish listeners did not practice but I think it's encouraging he was doing that the Seahawks are also the team I would say most willing to use guys without practice they are very open to that which makes sense I mean they've got a lot of guys banged up but Lockett's salary got bumped down to 6000 I think because they were expecting him to sit we don't want to use receivers against the jets typically but 6000 for a guy with his workload and his talent is intriguing Kenneth Walker and Noah Phant also didn't practice on Wednesday they played through their injuries last week so I expect they'll be good to go but if Lockett gets cleared with that salary being where it is are you in this week yeah he's a love for me at 6000 assuming he plays matchups can only do so much you know like Matt you can downgrade guys from Matchup but don't cross them off and I think that in order to not like Lockett at 6000 you have to be like a cross-off and I can't get there yeah and like just contextualize what a 6000 receiver is on Fandle generally right Tyler Lockett not 100% in a bad matchup still better than a lot of those options so right I like that also Garrett Wilson in games with Mike White 112 yards per game 122 air yards per game 24% target share 6.3 downfield targets per game which is six in one of them I know because I have 16 plus air yards on the downfield he had six of those in one of the games the games with since Elijah Moore's role scale backup and Corey Davis has been active Wilson has a 28% target share 42% of the deep targets and 28% inside the red zone that is a really sick workload for 73 so I can kind of even like a consolation prize for if I can't get to Jefferson kind of I know it's a huge salary difference but like if I want to jam in McCaffrey and Saquon maybe I can get back to Wilson but he is I think he's really enticing I think Lockett is very enticing I do like Kenneth Walker the third probably not going to decay because that salary is high enough where it's like a little bit more of a question but I think this game is intriguing for sure to say the least Lamar Jackson missed another practice Wednesday with his knee injury seems like he's probably going to sit again against the Steelers they're starting Tyler Huntley I should also mention that this this game is on the main slate despite being Sunday night because the slate was published before they flexed that game to Sunday night so Rams Chargers not on the main slate whereas Steelers Ravens is so want to make that clear while we're talking about this game I'm assuming we can cross off the Ravens if Huntley plays again do you agree yeah I mean no receivers above 6000 Mark Ganges down to 63 I'm not playing JK Dobbins the top side is just too low with that against that Steelers defense yeah I think the the pitch for Dobbins would have been if his workload were expanding but it's not so I think that you can cross him off pretty comfortably and that one I do like to see what's defense though on the other side of that game Cole McCoy is clear to concussion protocol he will start for the Cardinals this weekend the Falcons it's a road game but it's indoors against a pretty bad defense so how does McCoy starting all three of you at James Conner Deandre Hopkins Marquis Brown and the rest um I I kind of like I don't know we'll probably talk about James Conner like here and there throughout the show as he fits in within the larger context of the running back slate but 90 97% snap rate last week this seems not afraid to lean on him very clearly they getting rid of running backs and we're like it's it's clear that they like James Conner well enough his yardage upside is one thing that has always sort of been a hindrance for us and now it's not quite as much of an issue 120 yards last week I think he's a good play I don't know if he is a better play at salary than like Travis ETN for 300 less against the Texans but it's almost like a why not both and the reason that it's why not both is because of Christian McCaffrey yeah that's true and I think a little bit lower on Conner because the salary is high if he were still low seven thousands it'd be intriguing but I like you said I like ETN more um despite how often he has scorned us um I like Brian Robinson more to lower salary I like Isaiah no should I admit publicly I like Isaiah Pacheco again yeah sure let's do it um I like him again so it's harder for me to prioritize James Conner 8000 when I have alternatives lower it's not an anti-James Conner things like you said the workload is awesome productivity's been there which is not the case previously but back of quarterback you know that that kind of thing all working against him now I don't think this game is bad I could consider a Deandre Hopkins Drake London stack I do like London but it's just hard to see I mean Colt McCoy is fine but it's hard to see us getting burned for not using cardinals despite the matchup with McCoy being starter for that one Greg Delsich missed practice Wednesday with a hamstring injury and he seems legitimately questionable to miss this game we'll talk about the Broncos versus Chiefs in the bookmaker section the commanders will start Carson Wentz over Taylor Heineke this week Antonio Gibson missed practice Wednesday due to a foot and knee injuries and sounds like he could wind up sitting we'll talk about the commanders in the trend section Christian Watson missed practice Wednesday due to the hip injury suffered in week 16 he's day to day right now so could still want to play and we'll talk about them in the bookmaker section Damien Harris got in another limited session on Wednesday there was reportedly a shot he'd be active as an emergency only guy last week which means I bet he's probably going to play this week now that would you think should have Ramondra Stevenson not apply but Stevenson's salary is just $7,000 that's pretty low where would you be on Ramondrae if Harris does return given Ramondrae's forgiving salary yeah he was also limited in practice Ramondrae that is okay yeah um it's very intriguing it would be a lot more intriguing if we had like Tua and this game overall we could just load up on I would have oh boy this could be this could be one of those like that I really do that situations but I think I'd probably go with Brian Robinson over Ramondrae at salary if Harris is back and there's no Gibson so I don't dislike Ramon it just feels like really like we were itching to play Ramondrae now the salary is down but it is it's a different situation for both of them so I think I'd leave Robinson there and I don't necessarily think that I'll be rostering two of those guys in a lineup because I want a lot of McCaffrey and I'm probably gonna get like Connor and ETN as well so sure what are your thoughts here I feel like Ramondrae is probably a player I should be higher than I am you know those plays where you're like I should probably be higher on this guy he makes a lot of sense but I just I can't it's hard to get too jazzed it's probably like it's probably point chasing or like ant whatever what's the opposite of point chasing box score scouting I don't know whatever just I feel like I'm lower on him because he's had down games but I should probably be higher but the the reason why I struggle to get higher is because he's not as healthy as he was the beginning of the year he's had those injuries like you said he was limited in practice even though I did brush it off um limited in practice not as fully healthy right now Harris had a lot of rest probably gonna be good to go the offense not good I like under in this game it's also one of the spots where like with this team in particular you know they might have just been waiting for Harris to come back to like retaliate for Stevenson in that Raiders game I blame yeah I blame Jacoby more for that but that's different sure yeah yeah but like yeah I don't think they're silly enough to like bench Ramondrae for pure strong outright but maybe I don't think Bill Belichick would I would not be shocked at Matt Patricia would but yeah I feel like I should be higher on him but it's just tough you know he still gets a lot of passes like even if you look at the split after Harris returned following his first injury even those games 12.7 carries for Ramondrae per game eight targets per game 112.3 yards per game still had a very good role but you lose work and that's tough would you consider like Jeff Wilson for Ramondrae stack or do you know how to tie two running backs to this game I don't think I want to tie two players to this game more so than two running backs and like I'm not super high on Wilson so I should be higher on Ramondrae than I am but I'm probably not going to be super high this week unless I mean if if Stevenson if Harris sat again Ramondrae would be a great value seven thousand honestly so if if Harris somehow can't play I would say fire up Ramondrae at that point. Miko Harman is finally been cleared and he will return for the Chiefs this week it's the first time they've had everybody healthy in like a decade it seems like we'll talk about the Chiefs in the bookmaker section. Kylan Granson this practice Wednesday with an ankle injury he set out last week in Jelani Woods played 64% of the snaps the two games that Granson has missed Woods has a 23% target share so we typically don't want to tie our tight ends or anyone to Nick Foles led bad offenses but would you consider Woods at 47 if Granson sits? Or do you have to? What is the question? What do you mean do you have to? Like do you have to save that much salary this week at tight end? So you probably don't have to however I think it's a different discussion because typically when you're spending down to 47 a tight end you're doing so to save salary and you're using a guy whose best case scenario is 40 yards in the touchdown. Woods's best case scenario is like 90 yards in the touchdown. I think he actually has upside I think that's why it's a different discussion for him. Yeah that's true plus like if we go down from the from the top at tight end like Kelsey against the Broncos 83 Kittle just scoring like like crazy 74 Hawkinson flamethrower and everyone last week 7000 I love Taysum Hill 68 probably not gonna play a whole lot of that like Mark Andrews 63 it's like there's probably not a whole lot of tangible upside at tight end so I think that does make Woods playable. Would you play Woods in your like primary best lineup you can build you think he's like on that level? If Granson sits I can almost guarantee he'll be in that lineup almost guaranteed the only changer would be like if I wound up going fields with like Komet like that'd be the only thing that would shift it I think. I think it's like a Komet versus Woods conversation there then. Yeah I agree that's the only thing that would change it for me is if I wanted to get Komet with like a Komet chart and just load up on studs which I could do but I might almost rather run fields by himself than pass up Woods honestly which is you know it might be dumb but I think the fact that he can be a needle mover at a low salary which is very very rare at tight end is intriguing me. I think Komet has he's got he's got some 70-yard games he's got some touchdown upside in this situation. Correct and that's why I including that discussion too because he's he's similar in that regard but both those guys I think are standout plays if Granson sits. Okay let's talk about that Bear is Lyons game and shifted the bookmaker section for this week highest total on the slate by a wide margin is that game in Detroit for the Lyons and the Bears 52.5 point total the Lyons are favored by five and a half the Lyons can still make the playoffs the Bears might be trying to get Justin Fields the quarterback rushing yardage record so a lot of times in the bookmaker section including games we'll talk about later on we might be hesitant for whatever reason. I'm having troubles being hesitant with this one don't see a lot of flaws what about you. Yeah not a lot of flaws if I had to nitpick something it's just the Bears viability outside of like Justin Fields yeah we have Cole Komet and that's all I feel great about yeah but Justin Fields by himself I'm willing to play I have Detroit 31st in rushing yards over expectation per carry allowed to quarterbacks from the next-gen stats model 30th in rushing success rate and 32nd in rushing EPA per carry allowed to quarterbacks seems like a good situation for Fields. I also like Jared Goff at you know a savings of a thousand there talk more about him later on but you know in a really good situation at home he's played well at home played well against defenses that are not particularly great love me some look we don't need to talk too much about how much we love DJ Chark but we also are an Amon Ross Saint Brown podcast of course I think like it's a there's enough here to be able to stack it it's a two quarterback game but it's also not like as much as I love the Jaguars they have like four pass catchers or like three pass catchers here it's like narrower and I like that yeah I always mess up this word Jared Goff is a biggest beneficiary correct not benefactor beneficiary yeah thank you this is why Brandon is the senior managing editor of numberfire.com and I'm merely not but with Goff I think he's the one guy who benefits most from the construct of this slate where you don't need a 30 burger to be viable. Goff comes in at $7400 he has been lighting it up in terms of yardage and he has shown like enough upside to feel like he can hang with Mahomes and Fields even if they don't like have a bad game so I do like Goff a lot in that regard $7400 if you use him it is very easy to get to a McCaffrey Jefferson lineup which I would like to do for this week because I like both those guys a lot so I think Goff is very in play DJ Chark is I know this is not a shock to anybody listening if you've been listening for the past month DJ Chark is among the best players in the slate at wide receiver he is salary $6000 is 90 plus yards and three of the past four games his overall target share is not good but Goff has just been amazing targeting Chark this year now playing indoors against a super banged up defense that checks a lot of boxes and Montrose and Brown salaries come down 82 but I think that's great I think that is very forgiving now the one thing I will mention is Deandre Swiss salary got jacked up I think because of this game it's 71 that's a little high probably won't get there and I'm also not chasing Shane Zilstra despite the Minnesota connection I can't quite get there for a native Minnesota I know so not going to the lines running backs I'm not going to Zilstra but I do think that commits great feels great no Montgomery or Herbert for me personally but I think everything else kind of just wheels up yeah um Montgomery at 75 I think it's just a bit much if Herbert weren't there I could do it yeah but oh for sure yeah but Herbert played enough to cut in to that workload now we could see a situation where like they do what the Panthers just did to the Lions and like but I think that would be fields and then split between the running backs not necessarily just the two running backs so yeah I think I'm lower on a Montgomery and then the reason probably that Jim even like mentioned Deandre Swift who has not been relevant for a while is did play 56% of the snaps 52% of the routes last week but just 14 adjusted opportunities four you know four carries five targets not enough there for me want to get to even in stacks and come from someone who loves Deandre Swift yeah so no swift for either of us but you know um that's okay uh you can make a goff commit shark if you use goff commit shark you can use McCaffrey and Jefferson and not use anyone lower than 61 or 6000 at the other spots or sorry 61 starting included included uh shark in there so it's a really fun lineup really fun build um yeah you asked before if Jelani Woods would be in my like one lineup I think that that goff is like 33% chance to be in that lineup for me with the other 67 mostly being fields yeah so like I think from that standpoint like I'm gonna probably just have commit is like my my main guy whether it's with goffer fields because the salary for commits low enough to bake in the the downside of being in a run heavy offense will you chase any of the other bears pass catchers vealous jones the downfield target and back to back games been getting a little bit more ramped up we saw Byron Pringle pop up for I mean he had the touchdown I guess I don't know if you can't say a good game uh Dante Pettis has I mean nine targets the past two games are you going to any of those guys or just sticking to commit I think I'm sticking to commit I don't know if the upside for any of these guys can they get you like 85 in a touchdown maybe figure like a 40-yard touchdown sure yeah but I'm not really playing guys based on that so yeah I'm out and again it's a question of do I need that savings this week I don't think I need that much if I'm open to playing jared goff at quarterback yeah I think vealous jones is the one I'd be most likely to consider that group but uh probably will not be going there okay let's move on the vikings and the packers packers are three point favorites here total is 48 and a half that opened at 46 and a half it has risen I'm a dummy uh weather green bay does look pretty good with the winds at just four miles per hour so it's a good game for stacking based on what the bookmakers are saying here but like I said I'm a dummy and I bet the under in this game um a lot of peace in this game outside of Jefferson are pretty scary how do you feel about packers versus vikings scary as in scary to roster or scary to fade um question marks in their median expectation with questionable ceilings so scary to roster okay I would agree with that this is a very different situation um this uh NFC north matchup it is not as good as the other one uh like there's so I thought you're talking about like in real football and I was like but sorry yeah you're good yeah I mean we don't I don't care about real they're watching the game of my life oh you can watch these yeah they're available what crazy um I think Jefferson is a true priority play this week his he's so good his workload so good this is basically you know similar to like a cooper cup situation uh from a year ago where he's got 16 16 15 11 11 targets um over his past five we know he's got yardage upside he's got touchdown upside I don't think he's he hasn't oh he scored twice um in the first game of the year against green bay coincidentally but that's his only multi touchdown ups or a multi touchdown game like he has games of like 150 yards and just a single touchdown if he gets a second one like he has he has one two three games where he has had 24 fandal points with no touchdowns how is that possible that's awesome how is that possible that's christian mccaffrey yeah that's that's I think like the cooper cup from last year comp fits because like cup became viable with how much volume he got and you know just the jefferson's very good at football and uh I think that needs to be factored in but yeah outside of that like I think my main question to you is and I'll and I'll pause because Jim's taken a sip from uh what looks like a very nice sturdy mug no free ads but home federal bank it's uh it's here in cassin minnesota you know uh how many quarterbacks is this game zero for me uh cousins is like one fourth of a quarterback okay I can't use rogers but I know like he said he probably does project well and that's fine um I can't push back on that but his best case scenario is they fall behind that's like ketchup but I don't want to use quarterbacks whose best case scenario is that they fall behind so then who in this game are you uh eager to roster outside of jefferson dalvin um dalvin cook at 83 if he winds up being an overlooked piece in this game I could be very interested and I also don't mind even it's a lot of salary I don't mind having dalvin in the same lineup as jefferson because both those guys could go off in the same game um then I do think like if you think that's an option don't you have to be more open to like the quarterbacks unless you think this is just like a 45 three route no I mean like yeah I probably should be accepted to cousins but that's why he's a 0.25 not a zero okay to me um dalvin james connor or etn at salary how do you rank them dalvin one etn two connor three what about you I'm probably going etn then dalvin connor price that's probably stupid to have etn there but I'll talk about this uh match up for etn in a bit yeah I like I do like dalvin a lot I will say too if watson christian watson can't go I would feel pretty okay about um romeo doves at 59 what why tell me what it's like erin rogers can't stand romeo doves it seems like I know he can't but he might have to because they need a win to make the playoffs um in the second half last week when watson was ruled out doves had three targets uh lasard led with five it was three out of 16 so like 18 target share but he played 85 percent of the second half snaps so I don't think you'll have a choice we know we've talked about the vikings and how high of an eight out they allow as a defense doves would be the primary beneficiary of that it's kind of always gets messed up on that beneficiary of that uh of a high eight odd doves why why do you hate alan lasard's like downfield potential because he shouldn't get down he does get downfield work but he shouldn't yeah but here's the saying jim just like a lot of people want to say and like predict what okay but when is he when is he when does he come through on that that's that's the issue he has not had a hundred more than 100 yards since week uh october 9th whatever week that was that doesn't mean he doesn't get down 85 once since then but should he the question is will he convert on it should dobs if he doesn't I don't know maybe not either but like I think he is better built to handle downfield work than lasard is like lasard had three downfield targets last week and had 60 yards I just want to make sure that we're not glossing over the fact that alan lasard does have a high a dot and gets downfield work but that's all I just want to make that that known so do you prefer to lasard at 62 or dobs at 59 I probably prefer lasard because I feel safer that he will get as many targets as he can handle and dobs will be an after like not an true afterthought and like that I think you can be an afterthought of Watson is out I'm saying he's going to be this the clear number two behind lasard and I might as well just play lasard yeah lasard 62 that's lower than he has been previously so that's a forgiving salary I can see that for sure um I didn't realize he's 62 um we didn't have our salary scroll on Monday yeah I've I did like the same Monday through Thursday process as I do to like get ready for a slate I just feel so far behind because we didn't do the recap show yeah and we didn't scroll through the salaries that's like I look at a salary and I forget it now but when we do the scroll I seem to remember it idiot we can change if we like I want to get a handle on like Romeo Dobbs like Jersey because like you just changed a couple of letters that could go from Dobbs to Cobb if we convince Aaron Rodgers that Romeo Dobbs is a Randall Cobb he's a better play so can we make him like 78 instead of 18 just to think he'll more he's more likely to throw it to a titan uh to David Bakhtiyar he's back off an appendectomy if like instead of seeing an 18 for Randall Cobb it's like 78 it's like oh that's there's Cobb there wouldn't be a 78 out on the route um yeah I think you're right can you do oh wait it's just skill position players who have more flexibility not uh with their numbers now what well they like they changed their couldn't offense the line more like number two well no like I want to see well that'd be that'd be sick but I know there's more flexibility for like certain players I thought yeah I thought maybe we could make a 78 work maybe we could look into that I don't think we can do 78 for them because they just report it's eligible every play but we can we can look into it at least um but I do think Lazar's probably the better play which stinks because he's not high upside yeah whatever uh anything else for you in this game any AJ Dillon uh anything like that or no I don't think so I agree what are the odds it burns me probably not that high but I do think that Cook is Cook is really fun I do like Jefferson and receptive to Lazard slash Dobbs if Watson can't go if Watson does go people probably won't be super high in him at 76 he gets he was getting peppered before he got hurt in that Dolphins game and I can see that being a fun game stack it would require me to pass over McCaffer which stinks but um I'd be into that at least uh if we wound up getting the chance to use him if he gets in a full practice by Friday which he might not but well I think that he's intriguing there let's move now to the Broncos of the Chiefs mostly just talk about the Chiefs side the Chiefs massive implied total of 20 and a half for the game of the Broncos second highest in the state behind uh Jared Goffs Detroit Lions love it uh total is 44 and a half Chiefs are figured by 12 and a half first time these two teams met the Chiefs dropped 34 points uh Jerick McKinnon went bananas Jerry Judy scored thrice uh but there was no Coral inside in that game now this one seemed like there probably won't be Greg Dulcich so you're still taking a guy out how are you handling the Chiefs here and will you bring it back with any Broncos uh I like my homes well enough the harder part is figuring out the right stacking situation uh with him or if I'm going to play him by himself I like juju Smith's juicer more this year than I have in the past but not really loving like the idea that he completely torches me for not being there uh I like I love Jerick McKinnon as a player don't really want to chase uh this game against Denver from the you know earlier just a couple weeks ago um but it feels like it feels like two months ago and that was still in December so yeah that's how reason that was um he's just scoring it at such a high rate yet the salary is still sub seven thousand for McKinnon I don't think I'm gonna like prioritize Kelsey maybe I'm too low on the Chiefs but it just the Chiefs are like true Chiefs again where it's Kelsey is the clear preference but then there's everyone else and you don't know who it's going to be if anyone yeah I was expecting to be fully off of juju this week but I opened the salaries and saw you 68 that makes it a little bit more acceptable I'm not going to say intriguing because it's it's a step below intriguing it's it's more acceptable it's at 68 because I mean he's been fine since he came back from that concussion um but like hasn't really been fully like himself I don't think so that's why I'm not really super intrigued about that like it's okay I think my favorite Chief is Isaiah Pacheco at 63 because he's had like he's had a good baseline of yardage and I think there's potential for that to expand he's actually a double digit receiving yards in five consecutive gains which is pretty nice like they're getting him somewhat creative targets I believe he had a downfield target last week as well the route raiders remained fairly stagnant he ran around on 38% of drop backs last week which was I think his second highest but still not a huge spike up from where he had been so I don't think he's getting a roll increase because I think they like McKinnon but Pacheco did get a downfield target last week I think with his salary down to 63 against a Broncos defense just got torched by cam acres I think that Pacheco is interesting what do you think of him am I too high on him uh I don't think you're too high on him I'd get there I think I might be this would sound weird because if there's a stack for a running back and a quarterback you would go with Jerick McKinnon after what he did to Denver but I wouldn't mind if I if I'm trying to play my homes to get Pacheco and get basically all of the rushing yards that they get because Jerick doesn't really get a whole lot of rushing yards I mean here and there and then if they put up a ton of points just benefit that way yeah so it does sound like you're higher on Pacheco than I am but I still see the case for it and McKinnon for you no um like a lot of his yardage came from like somewhat broken plays in both that game and the other game where he had a lot of yards so I don't like he's shown more yardage upside than Pacheco but I don't want to really think it's like duplicatable if that's a whatever I'm struggling with words today um I don't think I can bank on that happening again so I think Pacheco is a better play in this game to 63 now that the salary is down given the matchup given the way things set up given the passing involvement he's had more recently so I'd rather go there for sure I just wanted to get a check to make sure I wasn't too high but the fact that you weren't like no you're way too high makes me feel better about him which is good I don't mind the idea of pairing with Mahomes either um I'm just like wishy-washy on Mahomes I guess I don't know I shouldn't be because I liked Mahomes in the first matchup but part of the reason I liked him the first matchup was because I didn't think anybody would use him and it was like okay if we're going to get Mahomes and Kelsey at lower roster rates I should be very high on them not sure if that'll happen this week given the lack of like high upside quarterbacks so I think he's fine um but I'm just not as and he will be my number two quarterback definitively um behind fields but it's not as I don't know for whatever reason I was enthusiastic uh on the Broncos side of things taking Dulcich out I do think makes me have interest in Coral and Sutton uh I think people will probably go with Judy based off that three touchdown game but in the games they played without Dulcich a five game sample Sutton had a 28% target share he had 36% of the deep work and 32% inside the red zone those are really good numbers and 6,800 dollars facing off of the chiefs probably not going to be a lot of attention there uh Sutton did enough last week to make me think he's healthy enough to be playable wear you on Sutton and Judy and then you can talk Latavius Murray if you hate yourself enough hey man come on now um yeah Sutton 7 targets last week with a catch rate over expectation of uh plus 19.4% which he's very good at football whenever he's healthy and I like to see a positive usually that means like okay well he over performed but I think in this case I like it more as like he's able to make some plays with his with his opportunity um lot of air yards good a dot uh team high a dot last week of 16.3 six downfield targets um I like it I guess my question to you is how do you rank the three primary pass catchers in this game between Judy Sutton and Judy all that mid-tier salaries which usually we don't have any guys there it's pretty loaded this week yeah 6,000 ranger receiver is awesome probably the best it's been all year I think between uh Judy or sorry Juju Sutton I think Christian Kirk's fun at 69 I like Drake London to my detriment at 67 DPJ is 65 Zay Jones is 63 probably the best guy in the range honestly you got jihad dotson 61 shark 6000 it's loaded uh lock it too at 6000 so I would say if we're talking tournaments where I am banking on a certain player being Laura rostered I'd rank Sutton first is that dumb no I think it makes sense he had a really good like underlying workload last week yeah uh Judy's salary is 7,000 which is very accessible too so I'm up both of them above Juju I don't know I think I would too just because there's nowhere else to go for Denver there are a lot of other places to go for the Chiefs yeah I'd agree with that okay let's move now to our trends discussion here for week number 17 you're going to start things off by looking at that Vegas versus San Francisco game we are not talking to him because nope uh you're talking instead about the 49ers without Debo Samuel now a two game sample what have you seen in those two games yeah um Brock Purdy's been fun and like really really efficient even if you adjust for opponents faced um he's averaging just 24 attempts in these past two games with 226 yards and two touchdowns for an EPA uh per drop back over expectations like versus the defense so zero as you play exactly two expectations of plus 0.22 on a per play basis which is awesome uh what was Garoppolo before he got hurt out of curiosity they were uh well I did a similar trend last week and they were basically identical so uh so why bother bringing back Jimmy Garoppolo if you have Brock Purdy on a seventh round rookie contract I'm going to mute myself now go ahead yeah I have him at the same number uh overall on the season so you know just basically like this has been a Jimmy Garoppolo lead offense and so we don't need to downgrade this team the the only problem is the passing volume still low and Purdy getting a lot of help with some really athletic plays by one George Kittle but that's within the range of outcomes for this offense uh and now he's facing the Raiders uh in a really good spot Vegas is 31st and adjusted past defense according to number of virus metrics and look if you're turning things over uh to Jared Stidham probably not that motivated to do things and that is partially why the 49ers have a really high implied team total this is not to say like I'm gonna play Brock Purdy it's he can man it he can do enough in this offense to keep guys relevant and everything starts with Christian McCaffrey in these two games without Debo 83 snap rate 83 route rate which is just disgusting for running back 98 scrimmage yards and 30.5 adjusted opportunities per game but we know that like last week was not uh the best spot and he's getting that cut that that type of workload injected into a game against the team that's 26th and adjusted fandal points per target allowed to running backs and 21st on a per carry basis they also allow the highest target per route rate to running backs and the highest yards per route run to running backs in the NFL so that's awesome uh now we're talking about like narrow target trees too only three pass catchers uh have had at least the 50% route rate excluding um McCaffrey that's Brandon Ayuk George Kittle and Joann Jennings all the 86 and a half or higher Ayuk is up at 98% Jennings down at 87% but you know Kittle leads that sample and target share at 28% Ayuk's at 23% McCaffrey 21% Jennings 17% nobody else in double digits so this team has just said well Brock you're gonna hand it off to Christian McCaffrey a lot and when you throw it it's going to Kittle Ayuk, Jennings or McCaffrey it's been working this is now in a very very great spot uh against the Raiders I do think that Kittle's salary of 74 is a bit tough Ayuk though down to 66 I think that's honestly pretty solid because I think he's well he's good enough to take advantage of his targets here I don't know how much they'll need to throw uh if I'm really feeling it I think Joann Jennings there's been worse plays that we that I've recommended in my career doing this than Joann Jennings at 55 I don't think I have to get there this week though but I don't see how you don't love Christian McCaffrey and make him a true priority play so what are your thoughts on this 49ers offense overall yeah uh with McCaffrey the only concern I have is the Eagles play at one if the Eagles win they lock up the first round by so then the 49ers are fighting just for seeding like they could get the two seed and that's an advantage because it means they'd face the Vikings in or potentially the Vikings in Santa Clara as opposed to Minnesota so that would be a worthwhile motivation but like I could see them cutting McCaffrey back to like a 70% snap rate like still using him but making him more limited and not like a full on like full McCaffrey and that situation that's the only concern I have with him is that if the Eagles lose and like you know it's all all bets are off but I think that's the only concern that I have there is do they scale him back if the Eagles win in the 1pm block now that game doesn't start doesn't finish until like 4pm Eastern this game starts at 4pm Eastern so maybe they make an adjustment in game but that's my one concern with him I still think he's a priority but that's the one reason I can't gush gush gush gush gush about him as far as Ayuk I think it'll like you said a little bit high salaried Ayuk the target shares are good but like with stitum starting they're not going to need to throw very much and they haven't had to throw in the two pretty starts so the target shares are good but in those games Ayuk has a five and half targets per game with the two without debo five and a half targets per game zero point five deep targets per game and no red zone targets per game like I'd rather use Drake London um as as like frustrating a frustrated we've been with his volume he's right there at 67 also as like a rush first offense but not he might have a higher target share uh than Ayuk will I'd rather go to maybe DPJ at 65 so I'm out on Ayuk I think probably not going to get to Kiddles it's kind of just McCaffrey for me are you frozen or are you now just London over Ayuk I can see why you think that but me bet me bet me I don't need to bet me what what do you mean I don't need to what of course you I don't need to you never need to 1,800 gambler down at um you never but like I think you should bet me if you if you actually think that you better bet me I think it's close I think London's better I know that I think it's close okay so yeah I'm a little bit lower on the 49ers I do worry a bit about how how high are you on McCaffrey then not that high now um I think he's either the number one or number two priority on the slate I think okay just me you know I was like I was looking at the only concern for him that's the one the one concern that I have for him and I think that concern might be enough where I put him below Jefferson as the number and making the number two priority instead of number one although honestly doesn't really lock up a win with or uh first round by with either went like they already know this no they're right but if they lose this week then they need to win next week if they lose this week it opens up the door for both actually Jefferson the exact same spot as McCaffrey is because if the if the Eagles win then the Vikings also can't get a first round by right that's weird okay but I don't know man so I think they're more likely to rest McCaffrey though than they are Jefferson not resting but like scale back a snaps a bit okay but he's still the number one or number two priority on the slate but that's why he won't be a hundred percent locked in for me what like the the two studs were going after you have legitimate concerns it's not legitimate it's like a 10 concern okay what I would say part of the reason why it's not more than 10 concern is because the Eagles are banged up let's talk with them for my first trend and talk about the Eagles with Gardner Minshew in line to start his second game this week this one is against the Saints they rank 14th in my defense of power rankings not a not a match we have to avoid and we can dig into Minshew's first start to see what you expect here they had a 56.5% early down first half pass rate which is fine they're a pass right over expectation ultimately wound up a negative 8.2% thank you Brandon for looking that up because it was such a burden for you to pull that number for me so they were more run heavy with Minshew than they were with Joan Hertz but they're also banged up Lane Johnson gonna miss this game he has always been a hyper impactful player and that hurts this offense so I think that takes Minshew out of play with his salary now up to 75 that's enough where I'm out on him pass catchers salaries are also pretty high it's for a good reason because Minshew was chucking it downfield uh 4d targets for Davante Smith 12 total targets both he and AJ Brown went for 100 plus yards AJ Brown eight targets uh one deep one in the red zone Dallas Goddard came off IR and had two deep targets but just three total targets Smith salary is 78 fair but high brown 84 fair but high Goddard remains at 6000 I have the most interest in Goddard's but all three at least considerations to me this week I can't go beyond that though uh Sanders Miles Sanders 6800 dollars if he and Lane Johnson were healthy I'd go back to Sanders once again this week if he misses I do think kind of gain will be very interesting at 54 given the rush heavy approach we know the gain will get high leverage work because he already does even with Sanders healthy so I kind of thought going in I'd be higher on the Eagles than I am right now but with the Lane Johnson injury with the Saints being an okay defense stuff like that I'm a little bit wishy washy uh where are you on the Eagles with the injuries piling up a bit yeah um Saints games don't run a ton of plays combined which is you know part in large part because of just how they play now part of that is because they don't run a lot of plays themselves because they're not necessarily good enough to be on the field a ton but this one could feel like it's a run out the clock situation where both teams are trying not to lose the game because this game does matter for the Saints um obviously we know what the stakes are for the Eagles but it could be cut you know played pretty close to the vest not saying like the weather is concerning but winds are currently projected around eight miles an hour could be uh you know a bit rainy it just might not be like the the most pristine game I think with the salaries being what they are I'm just a bit low on this entire situation and I don't necessarily think when I look back once the once the final buzzer uh goes off which will be a little bit later this week on the main slate that than usual I don't think that not stacking Saints Eagles is something that's gonna like that I'm gonna regret right so I think I'm okay just being low on this whole situation yeah I think that's what I'm at too which again is surprising because I thought going in I'd be high on oh I want these wide receivers you know I I had I used Sanders last week and I thought I'd be back this week but then he pops up in the injured board agent Brown limited on Wednesday he'll play through his knee injury but like he's not fully healthy that's a little bit concerning too so Lane Johnson being out a guy I respect a lot so I think there's enough there where a I'm lower on the softens to be also opens window maybe for the Saints to keep this uh this first round by discussion being viable AJ Brown at 84 Amon Ross St. Brown 82 Deandre Hopkins 81 rank them Amon Ra and then log out I would go AJ Brown second but I think I'd probably go yeah I'm not playing either um anyway you can do an Amon Ross St. Brown AJ Brown Equinomia St. Brown stack um and feel good about that or no I'll feel good about aggressive anyway go ahead there's anyone other than than Deandre Hopkins we would be all over this 10 target one catch four yard game if we're anyone other than well the the the trace mix poorly factor is relevant there no I know but yeah yeah it was fun I thought I had fun watching it honestly okay let's go the buck's still one by three uh let's go to your second trend top of the Texas defense because they're not quitting they're still playing hard and now they get the Jags this week the Jags I think it's worth noting can make the playoffs without a win next week if things break right if they win this week and lose next week their playoff odds at 538 is still like nine percent so they have something to play for whereas the Titans don't so break down the Texans defense weeks I think it's a relevant discussion because the Jags to me very much worthy of rostering this week yeah so uh Houston's been scrapping but they ain't been winning uh and since week 12 they've played three strong offenses with Miami Dallas and Kansas City and two bad offenses uh with Cleveland and Tennessee but for those teams put up 20 uh 27 to 30 total points the uh not so great Titans had just 14 last week but the things are really interesting here with like their defensive numbers uh if in terms of net expected points per play which is number fires EPA model Houston ranks just clicking in my notes it's I put the cursor right in Houston realize it and clicked away immediately but um well at least I didn't draw attention to it and ruin the show like a real pro we use the google doc for our notes in case you're curious dear listener Houston is sixth best since week 12 and net expected points per play allowed even before adjusting for opponents facing again you know three days are good offenses my model which does adjust has them fifth over the past five games now there's seventh best in passing that expected points per play allowed but still getting torched on the ground they've allowed 148 rushing yards per game in that span a top six rate uh and against the uh if we exclude the game against the Titans last week which I think is probably fair to do still allowing 264 passing yards per game which is the top 10 rate so like they're giving up yardage not and they're giving up points but it's not it might look and feel a little bit like they're playing better than they maybe are now they did hold Jackson go to six points in their first match up as many of these games are this week second time when did that happen what what when did that game happen week five I think our jag scored six points if I'm not mistaken they did you're right but wow yeah I do not remember that game at all I mean you know it was seven years ago at this point but uh Trevor Lawrence's salary 7800 I don't think he's out of play but I don't think he's a true priority but with the the rushing that that Houston's allowed in this you know recent stretch where they're playing like quote unquote good uh they're still getting you know given up a lot of rushing yards and it's been a while since ETN has had a huge game now the salary is higher than I would like it at 7700 but I think he's a really good play with his snap rate up above 70% in four games after he was limited back in week 12 now on the full season Christian Kirk leads the team with a 24 target share Zay Jones is 22% Evan Ingram at 18% notably Houston has allowed a league high 21 and a half percent target per route rate to tight ends they've gotten completely tagged by any relevant tight ends they face off more on that later uh Zay Jones is 63 Evan Ingram at 58 I think are really fun I like ETN I like Christian Kirk I probably should like Trevor Lawrence if I like all those guys but what are your thoughts on our Jags this week I do like Lawrence that's the one shift I'd make is that I do think he's pretty interesting they're playing indoors we don't have a lot of high upside quarterbacks in the Slates he ran a lot last week and like I said they've got stuff on the line this week so I think they actually will play pretty hard in this one ETN not on the injury report this week which is a good thing which means that he's potentially a bit healthier uh from that foot injury than he was previously he was not on it last week either in that game a 70% snap rate 22 carries and three targets so really good workload last week for ETN he was also not on it prior to week 15 so it's been a bit actually since he's been on the injury report but I think that's all positive for him he's had 112 and 127 yards in terms of past two games so I do like ETN quite a bit shocker in this game I do think Lawrence in play loves A. Jones like Evan Enger a lot no bringbacks at all but I think the Jags are very very fun in this game because I think people might be wary of them based on the narrative they need to win next week which is true but they can also get in potentially without that and I think they care about that and know that based on what they said the spread did lengthen from four to four and a half which means people have been betting the Jags which I think is intriguing as far as like confidence in uh using them for DFS so I think they are one of the funner funner teams on the slate and I want to be there I agree okay um I was gonna ask you about something forgot what it was though yeah I can't remember oh the no it wasn't I wasn't gonna ask you but um so ETN in that that Texans game had five targets he's he averaged three targets per game before James Robinson got phased out and traded and he's at 2.4 since then so he's actually gotten a worse passing game role since this role expanded which is just delightful but I still think he's uh fun once again this week let's move now to my second trend talk about Washington because Carson Wentz back in the saddle for the commanders this week he comes in a pretty plushy spot is their face in the browns it's a must win game for the commander so I wanted to dig in and see how we should shift expectations with Wentz being backed at least earlier on this year the commanders were more pass heavy with Wentz than they were with Taylor Heinecki their early down first half pass rate with Wentz is 54 percent it is 40 percent with Heinecki big big big big gap there they weren't efficient with Wentz his NP per drop back was negative 0.01 Heinecki was negative 0.02 they could open up um the passing volume a bit I wouldn't be shocked that they keep the same approach given that it's been working decently well it's coming at a time with Johan Dotson starting to break out a little bit in three games with Dotson snaps back up he leads the team with a 24 target share uh just at Terry McClourn at 23 percent McClourn leads in deep targets 32 percent to 28 percent Dotson has a 33 percent red zone share with McClourn and 25 percent so I think both these guys are viable but McClourn salary is 74 whereas Dotson is 61 I think Dotson is really fun again she's gonna keep on running it back with him the other guy who is interesting here is Brian Robinson because Antonio Gibson missed practice Wednesday with foot and knee injuries he's had foot and knee injuries in the past as well seems like there's a legit shot he does not play even with Gibson playing quite a bit recently Robinson has 100 plus yards and scrimmage in three of the past four games the Browns are one of the worst rush defenses in football so I think with all things considered both Robinson and Dotson will wind up being high on my list even with Wentz making his return this week any reservations for you around those two specifically with Wentz back as starter Dotson and Robinson yeah um no uh this team had a late buy uh which is something that you know you can factor in I think for a rookie like Dotson if you look at just the post-buy numbers 25 percent target share 90 and a half yards with a touchdown per game uh 15.1 yard adot like involved in the red zone downfield in the end zone really efficient he's a good player and so I think that he makes a lot of sense this week for Robinson like him as well uh I think that he can get like he can run some routes I don't know what exactly his true receiving upside will be this week they did get um they did get him three targets uh sorry one target last week on seven routes so that's my one reservation with Robinson but I do think that he can get there even if he's primarily a run only player because the salary is what it is yeah I think the one situation which he is caputty is if they fall behind early which is possible because you know they're not an amazing team um because they used Jonathan Williams last week when they were down two scores after Gibson got hurt that's one concern so that there there is a path to failure there for Robinson but pretty good rushing workload he's been better recently like from a production perspective as well pretty bad rush defense a lot on the line for Washington this week so I do think he's he's pretty fun he's like a priority for me and I think he'd be a cash gameplay if Gibson sits if Gibson plays I would prefer not to be there in cash games that might wind up there anyway um and I'd still use him in tournaments I'd just be a bit lower on him at that point uh where would you be on him if Gibson plays I wouldn't I don't think I'd get there I think I have enough options at elsewhere interesting I think I'd still get there I just have less than I would otherwise I mean it's a really good rushing matchup yeah I think I'd just restructure I'd probably just would you rather play Pacheco or Robinson with so I might use both in order to get Jefferson and McCaffrey in the same lineup yeah you think yeah so it might be a poor game although still a situation but yeah okay moss no let's talk about the weather for this week uh seriously though um no Ramondray with Damian Harris or Robinson I guess with him without Gibson to make that work Robinson one without Gibson well Ramondray wanted there's no Harris yeah Robinson two with no Gibson I'd probably go Robinson with Gibson above Ramondray with Harris that might be done though it might be done okay weather for this week there are 11 mile per hour winds in Foxboro for the Patriots and the Dolphins 11 mile per hour winds for the Giants and the Colts in Jersey and then 10 mile per hour winds in Philly for the Eagles and Saints nothing too concerning as of yet should be good to go relatively fun a weather week or week 17 one more name to throw in or two more names to throw in there Kenneth Walker at 67 and Tyler Algier who had a season high snap rate had a lot of work last week seems like they might want to get him some work down the stretch probably not going out here although you have five targets last week which is good that was five of eight running back targets 18 of 29 running back carries the targets were interesting but I won't get there I would go I good match up though what would you think about Kenneth Walker versus Robinson and Stevenson I think I'm I think I'm a little bit lower on I mean Walker did get the 26 carries last week yeah now at home not facing the chiefs the Jets let up good around a yardage to ETM last week they're good defense but we should should we go Walker I'd say Robinson without Gibson is better than Walker good that's one I'm sorry it's counting yeah well that's one oh boy this is too many too many names now are we doing like Ramon Dre with him without um let's just assume Harris is in Walker then Ramon Dre Algier I think Algiers is a better play than you do probably I don't think he's like amazing like I think his odds of burning me are lower like would you play Cordero Patterson at 67 like classic Cordero like last year Cordero sure but I don't think he's that I think he's getting close Algier there's a there's a lot of talking ourselves into stuff though this is exactly when things can go poorly exactly okay so let's move to the positional plays here four weeks 17 the players we don't have to talk ourselves into starting off at quarterback what are you doing there Justin Fields a lot of issues with quarterbacks overall like at the top of the list but Justin Fields getting the lion lions indoors just one dome game this season if my if my numbers are right against the Vikings ran eight times for 47 yards but Detroit is that only like one game without wind this year much less than a dome yeah the cowboys game is in a dome too well it's retractable roof yeah um Detroit as I mentioned already 30th or worse in rushing yards over expectation per carry rushing success rate and rushing EPA per carry allowed to quarterbacks so he was also in Atlanta he's actually at three three my data was wrong Jim yeah but but Justin Fields on turf is cool and my my second love is Jared go off I think it's three out of ten I think the salary is really good again QB's kind of scarce with like in terms of the big hitters this is by far the best game environment for a quarterback in my model uh very obvious stacking partners up against the 29th adjusted past defense in football he's been really sensitive with his matchups and with home road splits and in uh three games at home against teams outside the top 20 and past defense 349 yards per game the three touchdowns with a 0.39 passing that expected points per drop back over expectation so pretty good yeah my number one is Fields too because it's a high total tight enough spread I did bet the lines minus five and a half so like it may not be as close but Fields has run 15 and seven times the past two weeks he needs to go off to get the quarterback rushing yardage record but he's playing indoors um there aren't a lot of high upside guys in the slate and he is that so I do like Fields I have Trevor Lawrence number two I probably put golf above him though thinking more about it because it's a must-win game for golf um he has a higher implied total there is no chance he's limited due to resting for next week because they need to win this week so I'm going to go Fields then Mahomes then golf is my top three if I get to a fourth quarterback that guy would be Lawrence I think that's the way I'd phrase it I'd put Lawrence above cousins is what I'm saying that's fun okay moving to running back what are you doing there well I love Christian McCaffrey and even though Jim's trying to scare me it's still like McCaffrey a lot scared myself man matchups really good uh production was down uh last week the matchup this week is a lot better already noted a lot of this stuff and in the trend section but one thing I want to like touch on again is that she's a really good individual matchup with pass catching specifically and I know that if you're leading you don't have to throw as much but he still was going to get his targets because he's got a 21% target share from Purdy over the past two games and uh Vegas allows the highest target per route rate and yards per route rate to running backs it's just a really good situation and I think that even if we don't get full out Christian McCaffrey the I don't know sorry sorry Jim but the floor is really really high because of what he's going to do with even limited touches my second love and I guess I'm way run on this a little bit but I still feel good overall as Travis ETN as I mentioned Houston still getting torched torched on the ground he's he's uh got a really good implied team total good overall game environment for this offense he himself has been just okay since his return from injury but consistently playing at least 70% of the snaps has 74% of the red zone rushes 53% route rate I'm good with it for the salary I want exposure to the Jaguars and I'm going to have exposure to ETN and then my third love is Brian Robinson assuming Gibson sits um then you know they're shifting back to wins which probably an overall plus I don't know if it's can really be a downgrade from what they had but he's average 18.1 carries and 1.3 targets per game without JD McKissick which doesn't probably sound that relevant but I think that he had he chipped away enough to be you know something um and he's going to get a ton of early down work and Cleveland is allowing .92 rushing yards over expectation per carry two running backs which is third worst in the NFL I have Robinson's my number two love and I think the one pitch in favor of him even if Gibson does play is that Gibson is not fully healthy and if he plays he's playing hurt and I think that could be a pitch for Robinson and like hypothetically let's say Robinson plays half the snaps which would be an increase for him but he's done that twice this year and in those games 105.5 yards from scrimmage per game 25 adjust opportunities per game Cleveland stinks against the rush so I think that's why I could get there even if Gibson plays but I understand the reservations my first love I prefer Christian McCaffrey but I wanted to highlight Saquon Barkley quick we haven't talked about him yet and I think he's really good this week he is at 29.6 carries plus 2x targets per game in his full games this year and he's shown yardage upside recently now I think that's intriguing because the Colts are good against the rush but Barkley's past two games where he's kind of come back to life come against the Vikings and Washington both those teams are phenomenal against the rush and he's been getting he had nine targets per game in those two games so I do think that Saquon is very intriguing I would not be opposed to having a lineup where I go like you know salary saving with golf and shark and then try to jam in both McCaffrey and Saquon it I wouldn't be able to get Jefferson there but going with Saquon as my second stud instead of Jefferson they're going Saquon and Jefferson too I think that works as well so I want to make sure even though Saquon is not in that top tier with them half a step below it and I want to make sure I have enough of him to benefit if he goes off once again my third love after Robinson and Saquon is Isaiah Pacheco salary is down to $6,300 Denver got shredded by Cam Acres last week they just fired their coach so there can be a like a rally around the flag kind of effect with a fire a fired coach but they're not pushing super hard right now Pacheco 82 plus yards from scrimmage in seven consecutive games he said double digit receiving yards and five straight I think with the salary down now to 63 the concerns still valid but less of a weight an anchor on us I think that he has the building blocks for a very good game despite the fact he has not shown that yet so I think Pacheco at 63 is a good salary saver if I want to get to two of those three studs let's go to wider see for what you got there I'm on Ross ain't brown great match up salaries trending down by far the best game environment among receivers for the week over his past nine games he has not had lower than a single game target share of 25.7 percent that's phenomenal Chicago is allowing 1.96 yards per outrun two receivers which is second worst in football and you can plug them in with uh Justin Fields or Jared Goff so I'm gonna have a lot of st. Brown uh this week I do love the upper 6000 range but realistically if I'm trying to prioritize Jefferson McCaffrey st. Brown I'm gonna be in the in the low 6000 range a good bit too and so for that reason I love zay jones market share is nearly as good as christian curx on the full season but in five post buy games he's actually had the better target share 24.6 percent 72 yards per game 28 red zone share I think the salary is a bit too low for for this matchup and then my third love is Tyler Lockett assuming he's healthy to play I know the match up's not there but he's good enough to beat this match up at this low salary if it was Tyler Lockett at 73 would have no interest but Tyler Lockett at 6000 can do a lot 24 target share 33 percent area yard share I'm willing to roll the dice but if I get you know if I waver unlock it I've dots and I've chalk right down there too so and I don't I don't really see myself punting it receiver in the 5000 range I don't think it's the right week to be down there too often I tried to find guys down there and struggled I think Dobs 59 is fine um but like below that your most viable guys are probably like Richie James maybe Rashid Jahid and that's not really what I want to be doing for this week so I agree with you where I'd rather to live in the 6000 range for the most part and I could do that while still getting Jess and Jefferson who is my first level wide receiver he in the games he's played with Hawkinson who's had a legit role for this team even in those games specifically Jefferson has a 31 percent overall target share 43 deep with 29 inside the red zone he's had 24 fandal points in 8 out of 15 games which is absurd he didn't score a touch on three of those games bananas bananas he's had 24 plus fandal points four of his past five five of his past seven he had a buck 84 and two tubs against the Packers back in week one probably means they'll be going out of the way to cover him but I think with Hawkinson blowing up last week it kind of makes it really okay you can't totally sell out just to stop Jefferson I think that's a good thing for him I do like d'alve as well in this game but Jefferson is either one or two in terms of priorities I'm the same for me my number two love I was gonna go Drake London because I do think that he's very viable this week against the Cardinals I am very okay with him I will use him if I'm there go ahead is it gonna be Quarland Sutton no I'm gonna go to Datsun because I think that I agree with what you were saying about how like my roster construction is most likely going to lead me to having two guys in the low 6000 range so I'd rather highlight those two guys to fit more realistically what my build will be so I do like London if you got 67 you can get there and you can get I'm building a golf sake one McCaffrey lineup you can get back to London for sure but if you can't get there Datsun 61 I think is a good football player as you said he's been earning more targets he's been getting downfield work he's been getting red zone work he honestly like I love DJ shark should I prefer Datsun over shark given that Datsun's overall workload is better than sharks I think so okay so I like I like Datsun he'll be my second love my third love is still shark because crazy efficiency his salary $6,000 shark has 90 plus yards and three of his past four games despite not having a great like baseline workload they are indoors so it's the best game on the slate he's got gobs of upside so I think to me Datsun shark lock it is the best low 6000 range we've had this entire year by a significant margin and I want to take advantage of that so again we talked about Sutton juju Judy all those guys fine plays but I think this play this range relative to salary is better let's move to tight end what you doing there I have Evan Ingram just I like the idea of the Jaguars this week he gets the Texans against Tomb he had 69 yards on 10 targets in week five Houston is just one of the things I noticed there's like always these in Emily throughout the year they really haven't faced many tight ends who got volume they faced seven tight ends with at least six targets one of them was kind of in Granson so I'm going to kind of filter that out but the other six including Ingram have all had at least 60 yards they averaged 82 yards per game it's just one of those spots where like they probably look better on paper if you look at like some sort of dvp or yards per game allowed to tight ends but they just haven't faced anyone and the ones who do get them do stuff on these aren't like all stud names either like you the chart in our notes and it has Logan Thomas who hasn't done much at all this year 65 yards on six targets Gerald Everett who had 61 yards and six targets like that those Evan Ingrams got a better workload than both Everett and Thomas this year so I love that and like Kelsey Goddard both went for 100 but like Dalton Schultz who's kind of in between their 87 yards on 10 targets like it's just it's been a weird situation for Houston against tight ends this year but I also have Cole Comet at 53 I might have the most Cole Comet at tight end just because of the salary and the game that the game environment overall but he's got a single game target share of 21% or better and seven straight games hasn't gotten to 75 yards yet in a game this season but it's a it's a really good game environment Detroit is the worst tight end defense in football by my adjustment fantasy points per target numbers and Comet salary is still just 53 like that's super low for a guy who can do some stuff great game environment so I like Comet too one guy we have not discussed yet and I think I will be in on in part is like a bring back for a Robinson or Dotson teams I like David and Joku so in the games he's played with Sean Watson he's at 6.7 targets per game which for a tight end is very good but it's hard to notice because they played in such bad weather in two of those three games he's at 2.7 red zone targets per game and that's been which is absurd his salary is $5600 so I think in Joku is a guy I will use as a bring back option decently often this week another option as a potential bring back is for my sake one line up Jolani Woods if it's only if Kylin Granson sits but in the two games without Granson Woods has a 23% target share he's had 98 and 43 yards absurd stuff he ran a 4640 despite being like seven foot four and being just a hulk of a man and like honestly if you're the if you're the Colts nothing to play for wouldn't you want to get a look to see if you're like cyborg tight end can play and be like a building block for you I would if Granson does play I will bump off go to Comet go to in Joku go to engram stuff like that but if I if there's no Granson I think Jolani Woods a great play he's an actual needle mover for me at tight end for 47 or he has a potential to be that I think that that is very intriguing let's go to defense what's checking out there I got Washington they're at home against Cleveland the Shawn Watson is not good salaries down after some modest games top 10 and pressure rates you know both offensive and defense or sorry pass and rush defense overall good against the downfield pass I think it's just a good situation yeah I think that they work at $3900 you can probably see Rosa in the yeah right she's right here she's looking at her pause I had to talk to her a second but um Washington works I think this whole range has a lot of like viable options I like the Steelers only if it's Tyler Huntley which I think it will be for this week so defense is scoring I typically don't look at because it can be so influenced by touchdowns but they have had double digit fan dual points in three or seven games since TJ Waugh came back and they've had no defensive touchdowns in those games so you get a little Sunday night hammer back of for the first time in a very long time we haven't had that in a bit uh $3,800 I think they grade out really well Washington is on my list um Cleveland is on my list Detroit is on my list um Green Bay I would use I think that all these defenses are viable in the mid-3,000 range I would also say the states are not off my list at $3,200 against the Eagles with Lane Johnson being out so um I still respect the Eagles a lot but I think that opens the door to make them the saver for me so the high-3,000 range mid-3,000 range pretty good this week over on fan dual Brandon any final thoughts for you before we close up shop for this week 17 preview show I think we covered all we needed to cover on a 13 game slate I talked about some less fun games talked about the most fun games and after all this I still feel really good with the Bears and Lions game feel good about that I feel good about the site in general feel good about the fact that we have some like legit value plays we can trust and we can get to the studs without selling our souls I'll take that every time so should be a fun slate for sure that is all that we have here for today on our week 17 preview show we'll be back once again next week to break down week 18 and all the playoff implications there letting you know how much it matters stuff like that which teams are caring etc etc it's always a fun show for sure we'll be here throughout the playoffs too so make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast and while you're there if you like what you hear leave us a rating interview as well Brandon people have questions for you on twitter where can they find you there i'm on twitter at goodwill of 13 gd ula one is three and i am on twitter at jim sonnis you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast want to thank you all for tuning in and good luck to you with your dfs lineups in week 17 we'll talk to you once again next week to break down the final regular season slate of the year this has been the heat shack fantasy podcast powered by number fire