 Welcome to the channel. This is reliable Rudy in this video We're gonna continue our Netflix analysis and we're gonna put a little bit of time into the stock analyzer tool And then we're gonna use the rest of the time going over the chart And that is going to complete our view requests for Netflix. There's not going to be a part 3 video for Netflix But nonetheless, I'm not a financial advisor everything this video contains only my opinion as for entertainment purposes only I have no individual holding in Netflix. Nothing to gain. Nothing to lose simply stating my opinion Okay, I have put numbers in I've ran multiple projections off of this and Normally I would not do that when I'm making an analysis on a video But if you haven't seen my last video where I go over the financials all kinds of red flags I wanted to just zip through this video and move on to the next Set of videos that I'm going to make so if you haven't seen that last video where I go over those red flags I'll put a card up here so you guys can easily click this and go to my last video and check that out Or you can simply go to my last video, whichever one works for you Okay, so going into this for revenue numbers right here. Let's go pull up some this revenue You can see from 2019 steady decline in revenue growth You see that steady decline in revenue growth and this is a time period from 2020 to 2021 where their business definitely benefited No question about it. I think Netflix is losing strength. I think cloning in this industry a Heavy race is taking place in the streaming industry and I just don't see Netflix gaining Netflix is not gaining strength right now. I'm just gonna leave it at that and you can easily see this revenue decline This is it's not there Am I going to be putting in 20 30 a 40% revenue growth for this? No, no chance And it'd be easy to hop onto the software and say, oh, yeah 10 10 the 20% revenue growth looks really good. No, I don't see it guys. It's just not there So for revenue numbers, I'm going to use I would probably use six through our four through eight But for the sake of this video, I am going to boost that up a little bit and we'll go six eight ten You know, I would be surprised if they underperform this. I don't think this is being conservative. I think this is a reach But we'll use six through ten Profit margins, let's go look at the profit margins real quick a couple acquisitions Over the year and I think that is potentially Boosing the net the net profit. It's it's possible. Maybe they're able to put they're starting to kind of build consistency over the last four quarters But I'm not going to use profit margins up here. You can see as they're from 2017 2016 through I mean, this is a newly profitable business now You could say oh, that's going to continue increasing as the business goes guys highly competitive space. They're losing dominance I just don't see it But I do like this floor price that sets in 2020 around this 10 to 12 and then also Leading up to that as well. There's nice floor that's set around six to eight So you could use numbers right in that range six or eight through 12 But we'll we'll just go eight through 12 and we can go back and touch base on this real quick Now free cash flow margins. They're not bringing in free cash flow. I state this in my first video Fluke year COVID year 2020 didn't didn't have an acquisition here. Here's an acquisition That's probably touching base on our touching up on some of their financials I would definitely look into those acquisitions, but look at the huge decline following that Leading up to that negative negative negative negative negative negative Guys, I just don't see it For the for the stock analyzer tool we are going to use the same numbers just to give you guys a Decent look of what this projection could end up looking like now for 6% revenue growth Okay, 18 or 15 18 21 you could say that's pretty reasonable for some of the prep for for some of the numbers And like I said this free cash flow margin, they're not putting these numbers up. No chance If you disagree with that You know, I I would like to hear some reason on how they're going to change their business to be able to consist Only match free cash for margin with profit margin. I don't see it guys And we want a 15% return. I think these numbers and this is being extremely generous. We'll hit analyze Yeah, I don't see it. We're not even close I think this these middle numbers are even a stretch right here Now you could say, okay, put those profit margins up. They're gonna continue growing. Okay, we'll be generous We're still not there not even close not even in the slightest current price 225 no chance No chance now if I even lowered this to my 4 through 8 Okay, we're still not close 8 10 12 8 10 12 will even leave the PE at those high ranges Nowhere near not interested at all This is why I would say probably stay away from Netflix and now my numbers could maybe maybe they're proving wrong and Netflix Continues to build dominance and hold that presence in that streaming space But they haven't showed me anything in the financials that would lead me to believe that So we're gonna move on from the stock analyzer tool I feel I got my point across that I do not like the valuation of Netflix not even in the slightest Okay, moving on to the charting aspect of things I'm on a week chart first thing I'm gonna do is set a trend line let's actually move it to a month chart and Let's zoom into this a little bit so that you guys can see it a lot better now You see this double bottom. You see this higher low wick that comes in on that month. That's your buying pressure I like this higher low that sets and you can see the same thing right here. This is exactly where I want to set my trend line Right through all that and I even want to get this third point account that extra point of contacting right there That's going to give me solidify a nice set of support off this trend line and Guys, it's it's right there this trend line at current price is meeting in $67 Okay, you could run that. Okay. Maybe we go in a retrace and we don't come in contact with this trend line till over here Okay, that's still a hundred flat We go back to my evaluation hundred flat right at my middle assumption. I don't see it and People are probably I would be I wouldn't be surprised if people actually have their trend line set like this Where they're saying oh you got to run it through right here. We're actually bouncing off the trend line right now You got to run it through the whole thing boom boom boom We're hitting our trend line right now. We're gonna get a nice little pop right here. This is where the retrace is gonna come in That I wouldn't be surprised if people have their trend line set like this and they're like, oh, yep bottoms in We're up from here boys This is trapping a lot of people right here. This is not how I'd set my trend line No chance. You got a nice double bottom higher low nice double bottom higher low that meets in right here at my previous low This is my trend line without question if people are setting their trend line different than that they are not setting their trend line correctly and Here it goes. It shows you right right there That's how I'd set my trend line. I don't really see corollating channel in with this Simply because I think the stock has ran irrational, but here's my first retrace. Let's switch it to a week chart We do get some direct correlation off right there. We set this triple top boom There's the start of my trend line You can see the demand where we start our trend line you see right here We set a lot of wicks into that and we set a nice double bottom right here You know this trend line could actually even be set lower it could be set right in around right there We don't come in contact right there, but look how long we trade sideways at this full extension Extraordinary that's from 2004 and we break out. We never come back five years later in 2009 Now their business has changed drastically no question about that Now with that their business has changed drastically during this time period where they they jumped into the streaming I looked and I think they started getting to the stream business around 2007. Okay Here's your 2007 and We end up pushing through that full extension and we get bullish Now you can see oh, we don't get any rejection off my full extension. We stay bullish right there Yeah, it's pretty simple. How I would state that is that you got a nice uptrend right here Boom boom boom we stay on this uptrend as soon as we crack that uptrend boom. What's this percent drop? 78 82% drop as soon as we crack that trend line so you can say oh you're you're a fib tool We kept pushing right through it as soon as we crack that trend line boom 80% drop Let's take that fib tool out. Let's take this trend line out Let's run a fib tool from this move top of the bottom of the move And you see direct correlation my first extension we hover around we are getting wicks into my second extension We put this double top into my next extension trade sideways right here a little bit of rejection right there But nonetheless you have same scenario guys. You have a trend line. That's trying to hold Now what we fully extend up here now? This is 2018 the streaming business is Striving let's go back and look at the revenue Revenue and profit During this time period in 2018. They're consistently putting 30% profit margin or revenue growth consistently There is demand the demand is there This is going to definitely SQ how a fib tool works if the demand is there supply and demand if more people want to buy it then sell it's gonna go up Now nonetheless, we do get this sell off right here. Let's put one final Fib tool and we do set a higher low off of this. I like how that looks We have a nice one two three four. You see how let's go to a day chart and look at that. I'm gonna show you guys this right here So where are we at? Here's our trend line right here. So you have this drop Okay, so the double top comes in right here, right? Here's my fall down to right here Rejected clear rejection off my 702 you see how we have this I'm sure this was an earnings day. Let's go look Queer rejection off my 702 we sell off. Okay, like I said earnings They post it after hours It gaps up it trades up puts a direct wick into this into this downtrend one two points of contact with direct correlation off of my 702 and We trade up after earnings on that day direct correlation meets perfectly with it where we then sell off boom So let's mark this out. Let's get this Fib tool out of the way We have our sell off We retrace to our 702 We hold support. This is not a wave three We set a double top into my downtrend. You see this downtrend right here Double top into my downtrend where we get our wave three. There's our wave three. You see it guys Now we get our wave four that pretty it does get on top of my wave one But nonetheless we get rejected and we ultimately get our wave five that comes in right there now you have trend line buyers that initial trend line and We do get initial sell off that goes even further and then we get bullish after that You guys see how all that works You see a clear one two three four five wave structure a little bit more of a sell off But then at the end of this at the tail end of this you get a nice boost Now when it sells off again, you set this higher low so in this five wave structure I'm gonna want to put a Fib tool top to move bottom and move I guarantee you there's correlating evidence right here Look at that put all kinds of wicks into my first extension and Even more in particular we gap up over it We set a close right there hard rejected gap up over it tries to hold on top Tries to hold on top gap down below it Beautiful beautiful gaps down. I love seeing that and yeah all kinds of action and ultimately We set this double top coming pretty in contact with my second extension and here is the Here here's where it starts we get a queer rejection double top and boom. What is this percent drop from this time period? I mean playing with this stock. I think it's playing with fire. I really do I think you're playing with fire if you're messing around with this stock and I Think that the long-term trend line says it best Here's my long-term trend line Double bottom double bottom contact 75 to 100 bucks Do I like it down there 75 to 100 bucks? Yeah, if they can put these numbers up over a 10-year period Okay, 75 to 100 bucks. I like it there and that is going to wrap up my my Analysis on you on Netflix. I hope you guys enjoy the content if you don't or if you disagree Feel free to leave some comments I'd be more than welcome to answer any questions or any concerns that you guys have with my analysis But nonetheless send me a couple more tickers. I'd love to do more viewer request and We'll see you on the next one