 As the Taliban take over Afghanistan, what is the fate of Africa? Many ask, more specifically, Nigeria. And the revelation that former governor of the CBN Sanasi Lamido Sanasi may indict the APC and vindicates us, says the PDP. But we'll get to find out what that is on plus politics. I am Mary Anna Cohen. In less than 10 days after the United States withdrew its forces from Afghanistan, the country fell into the hands of the Taliban. The country had been ruled by the Taliban from 1996 to 2001, when the United States and Allied forces invaded Afghanistan, aiming to stop the Taliban from using Afghanistan as a base of operations for terrorist activities. So now putting in consideration the security issues, Nigeria and other African countries such as Kenya, Mali are facing. Could this international incident, what would it mean for Africa? Well, joining us to discuss this is Al-Gogor-Obo. He's a foreign affairs expert. Farai Mubuti is a senior analyst at the Southern African Times. And we have joining us from the United States, Justin Higgins, a former U.S. policy advisor. Thank you very much, gentlemen, for joining us. Thank you for having me. Great. I'm going to start with you, Justin, because obviously many have been asking questions as to if it was very timely or if it was not the right time for the U.S. to pull out its forces from Afghanistan, looking at what's happened over the past couple of days. So, and I know I remember in 2009, if I'm not mistaken, when the president now used to be vice president, he somewhat did not agree with sending more people, more soldiers to Afghanistan at the time. So the question is, could that have been the reason why he pulled out now? Well, President Biden for at least a decade has been against the continued operations going on in Afghanistan. So for at least the last 10 years, he has been pretty consistent, like you mentioned. But here in the U.S., just to give everybody a feel of the strong criticism that the president is facing from both parties, from Republicans and Democrats, it's not so much that Afghanistan fell to the Taliban. It's the fact that we have a 10 to 15,000 U.S. citizens stuck in Afghanistan right now. And in addition to that, anywhere from 80 to over 100,000 Afghan translators, contractors, and people that we promised to get out and into safety after we evacuated. So it's not so much that the country fell to the Taliban, which is a point of criticism, but it's the fact that President Biden had seven months to get these people out of Afghanistan and into safety, and he was not able to do so. It's interesting. Now, we also obviously have a humanitarian issue with Afghanistan because we're seeing more and more people trying to get out of Afghanistan. And most of them obviously will become a problem to the countries that border around them. But let's talk about the politics of it. Can people, is it right for people to blame the U.S. for pulling out at this time and the fact that the Taliban's have taken over? Again, where will all of these people go knowing that the world as it is is facing the biggest pandemic it has ever faced, ever? I mean, is this not going to be a problem for countries that have to take these refugees in? Well, we spent two decades and hundreds of billions of dollars on a mission that originally was focused on eliminating al-Qaida and terrorism in the country, and it became very apparent many experts think over a decade ago that there was not going to be the ability for the U.S. and coalition forces to create a stable Afghanistan. So from a domestic perspective, from the way that many people in the U.S. are looking at this, a recent poll showed 66% of Americans did not think the war was justified. So politically speaking, there's a strong consensus that Joe Biden was right to pull out the troops from Afghanistan that whether we stayed for another year or five years, it wouldn't have made a difference in the stability of the government and that at the end of the day, we had been there for way too long and it was time to bring our daughters and sons home. All right, I'll come back to you because there's a lot more to talk about in terms of the policies going forward. But let me come to you for right. For Africa, there seems to be a lot of talk going on behind the scenes. I know that Uganda is to take in about 2,000 of these African refugees and this is because they're doing it at the request of the U.S. But for African countries, aside from Uganda who are facing terrorism, Mozambique is the latest on that list and I think a few days ago, there was another hit by Jihadists and if I'm not mistaken, another African country, I can't remember. What does this mean for Africa because we're seeing Uganda taking in refugees but for those fighting insurgency, what does this Afghanistan situation spell for African countries? Thank you for having me. I think with Africa, we have a different context altogether. If you look at, for example, Mozambique or even the current challenges of insurgency that you're facing in Nigeria, these are very particular circumstances that are very unique and intrinsically different to what Afghanistan would have in the case of Afghanistan, for instance. The Taliban is a home-grown group that is not external from the cultural realities of that disability country as the recent president or rather, I'll use the example of the head of the Mediterranean UK who described them as homeboys or cowboys who are basically locals within their own terrain who struggle, most of the people would read it as a fundamentally local struggle. In instances of insurgency, these are implanted projects that may be an extension, collaborating though with locals but inherently a state structure still exists and there is no external intervention which was, of course, the case of Afghanistan. What Africa may be looking at, however, is how it plays a role in that particular instance. So Uganda, as you've stated, will be looking into taking in about 2000 of those refugees to create, to support the outcome and the process of ensuring that humanitarian aspect of the Afghans who are actually traveling out can be met as part of their global contribution which demonstrates that Africa is a part of the global conversation through a course around it and there might be more of that. But in a political sense, there is a deeper argument that is currently prevailing about democracy itself, the notion that liberal democracy in its fixture or understanding or by virtue of its ideology can be transplanted. This is the new conversation that you're finding. So it's boosting the argument that perhaps countries like Uganda are making whose democracies speak to their own realities and their own cultural and historical record. The president of Nigeria, President Mohammad Buhari, I think he put out a report on the financial times and he talked about the fact that Africa needs to look within to be able to deal with its issues of terrorism. But he also said that Africa seems to be the new front line for global militancy saying that Afghanistan's uprising came as an unexpected momentum. Now he fears that if Africa does not begin to look for African ways to deal with this issue, we might be facing an Afghanistan situation just like what we're seeing playing out today. But how true is it? And looking at African countries because I'm gonna ask my next guest the same question. Are African countries finding African ways to deal with the issue of terrorism? Or do we still keep going cap in hand to the US or for those who are Francophone countries go to the French for support? And how well has that worked out? Well, I think there is truth in what the president is saying. However, I think it will be largely exaggerated to suggest that we would face an Afghanistan scenario because these are completely different circumstances as I said before. However, the non-collaborative approach to dealing with terrorism in certain instances or in certain circumstances can influence a growth aspect. So to that degree, to the extent of that argument, yes, I do agree. But we are seeing quite a number of collaborations. Sadik, for example, the Southern African Development Region has collaborated with Mozambique. We haven't seen the extended help of Rwanda. In Nigeria's case, there is a regional approach to looking at it. Of course, in terms of which on the ground that has not become the reality. But this is purely down to the fact that it has not been into Nigeria, Nigeria has tended to be able to have to do this on or rather sit on regional bodies that has been able to handle this on security concerns. So I think in as much as I do understand this argument, I think E2S head of state can push that through regional bodies and equally continental bodies. There is a thirst to make that happen. And do they have the power to do so? I think Nigeria in the largest economy in the continent has a lot of sway in what happens in the EU. So it can be empowered through its own role as well. Just joined us. Let me take this question to Agogot. Agogot, it's very interesting that our president is the one who's expressing the most fear as a result of what he's seen play out in Afghanistan. And when the president says this, it seems more like he's preaching to the choir because really, have we really had a Nigerian approach to dealing with the terrorism that we're facing in the country today? Looking at the fact that we have a hydro-headed sort of terrorist activity going on in the country under different nomenclatures. Is the president really expressing fear for Nigeria or just expressing a general fear for Africa, noting what's happening in the Sahel? Agogot, I don't think we can hear you. Maybe you'll have to lose the headphone. Works. Great, we can hear you now. Yes, we can hear you now. All right. All right, so I think that he speaks for the generality of West Africans, who unfortunately have bought the brunt of Boko Haram since 2009 and then a swap, which has taken over from Boko Haram recently also too. And then you have the farmer-headers crisis, the unknown gunmen who have now become what we call the Fulani Headsmen in this part of the world. So when he speaks this way, he's talking about a problem which has been with us for over 11 years and has led to the loss of lives in several tens of thousands and the millions of people who are displaced. And you make a great point in the way people have analyzed the government's approach in resolving first the Boko Haram terror incidents and what is going on with the farmers and then the headers crisis, which has now become number one compared to Boko Haram where you've seen in recent days, numbers of people who surrendered and no longer willing to fight or take up arms against the government. The question you probably will ask is what's happening with the states? Most of the Northwestern states where you have and the crisis happened, the abduction, the kidnappings, the killings. They are states that have the biggest developmental problems and indices. If you trace back, you'll find out that many of those problems that heralded the Boko Haram crisis are some of the problems you're seeing being faced by many states in the Northwest and the North Central. So the governors are asking for soldiers, they're asking for weapons, they're asking for everything, but the development which has thrown their states into crisis, they don't have enough food, they don't have water, they don't have housing, they have a large number of children who are out of school. So on the one hand, there's the military option in which a number of the governors have assumed to be the approach in resolving the crisis, but the other approaches which is getting those developmental indicators up to the point where we can then argue that because you have less children who are out of school or who have access to healthcare or have access to employment, then you're ready to fight this, or otherwise you'd just be blowing in the wind. Again, my question, just to go push you further, the Katzenes state governor, the governor of the state where our president is from recently asked that the people in the state resort to self-help, which again makes me look up Mr. President's message on the financial times and wonder really if the president is talking about us here, because he lives here, he lives in this country, he sees everything that's been happening. Have we done all that needs to be done by the book for us to begin to decide if we can resort to self-help? And when governors begin to speak from different sides of their mouth and the military is also on the other side, trying to see what they can do as per damage control, does this not make it look like we're in some form of a chaos or a chaotic situation? This is the case of the off-street highway, it's heard in the desert and it's ramp outside. If you ask all of those states, there's no state in Nigeria that gets security votes less than 200 million Naira. No state gets security vote every month, less than 200 million Naira. The richer states get about 800, 900 million Naira. There is no plan by any of those governors saying that those monies which have been put for their security, which interestingly, if you put those monies into education, you put those monies into healthcare on a monthly basis, you probably will be dealing with the problem squarely. The president doesn't allude to a hidden factor, which is public knowledge. In Nigeria, the states that have the highest population growth rate are located where you have the bandit tree and the terrorism going on in the Northwest, in Katina. They've got one of the highest bet rates. And interesting, you also have one of the worst malnutrition rates you also have. According to the government's data warehouse. So what did the governors asking people to take off arms to fight against what the minister of defense, I think it was Margaret, she also a couple of months ago, it also asked them to take off arms. People who carry life weapons, RPGs and GPMGs ask the life weapons. What do you expect local vigilante to do? They have no way in going against these people and accepting the shot of simply being annihilated. So, politically, many people have said, but in the real sense of it, there's a lot more that still needs to be done. He's asking for investment. But the question is, if you're asking for investment in these places, what have the states done to show some transparency in how those states are run? Plartus, which is not central, I had the governor through his commission of information at this point, he said, people accused the governor of sleeping. But he said the local council officials have able sleeping and snoring far more than the executive. But the question you should ask, people have asked that they ask all of the state governors, is what have they done to free up the local space? There is no state in Nigeria where you don't have the governors superimposing and taking control over what happens at local government areas. So, on the one hand, there is no government at the local government level because the state governors, like emperors are sitting on and breathing on their necks. It looks like a very, very tough situation. Let me go back to Justin. Justin, it's very easy for Nigerians to quickly go to, or say to the US, we need you to help us at every point, whether it's with the Ansars, whether it's with terrorism and any other thing, we always go to the US or the UK to help us in this fight. Now, what's happened in Afghanistan? Can we say that maybe the US was tired of fighting or that the US saw that this war could not be won? And then now that we in Africa are looking also to the West for help, should we, Justin, in that hope that the West can help us to fight terrorism? And like my president said, begin to look inwards? Well, I'm to agree with what Farai said, or at least I thought he said, which is Afghanistan is a completely, completely different story and set of facts and circumstances than the terrorism in Nigeria and really Western or US involvement in a lot of different African nations. That's because of a simple fact. In Afghanistan, it wasn't that we were tired of fighting. It was that the United States mission was twofold. It was one, to fight terrorism, and two, it eventually became, after a decade or so, to build a government. We got tired of the fact that the second part was never going to happen. In Nigeria, we're not assisting Nigeria by building a government. We are simply assisting Nigeria with fighting terrorism. So it's a completely different story. And then the other thing I'll say here is this, if there's any lesson to be taken from any government in Africa, the Nigerian government, any of them, it is that cutting down on corruption and increasing on transparency is the best way to get full and robust support from the United States. We all know, I mean, you and I had this conversation a few weeks ago, if not months, maybe last month when we talked about the fact that the US Congress or the Senate had put a pause on the sales of some FISA jets to Nigeria because of humanitarian issues. Now, we're in the middle of an unconventional war and we're also having to deal with the fear of the fact that these terrorists continue to come down to this part of the continent and then the gun running around the Sahel. It's a big deal. How do we fight insurgency? How do we deal with terrorism when we do not have what we need to fight it? Yes, we know that humanitarian issues are dangling over our heads. But what do we do? Which do we choose over which? Well, I think you can choose both, right? If you have strong diplomats and a president who actually wants to get these tools to help fight and defeat the terrorists, then you sit down at the table with the United States negotiators and you come up with a path forward. This is just a temporary hold, as I mentioned earlier, by a few different senators. So if there is a plan put in place that the US Senate, that the US State Department feels confident about, and what does that mean? A plan in place that the US diplomats and the US legislators can feel confident that these weapons will not be used like weapons were used in the Ansar's protests to gun down innocent protesters and commit atrocities, then it's very likely that these weapons, the hold will be removed and that they will be sold to the Nigerian government to defeat terrorism. There just has to be some simple steps made by the government to show that they are willing partners. What lessons should Africa be learning from this Afghanistan issue, especially with the situation in Mozambique today, and of course Kenya is also dealing with the issue of al-Shabaab, and I mean the list is endless. If we start calling the names of the countries that are dealing actively with insurgents and these icewaps, now they call them icewaps, some of them are called ISIS. What should Africa be learning now? Just as my president said, should we look for Mozambican ways to deal with Mozambique's problems? Can we look for other ways in Kenya to deal with Kenya's insurgency? What exactly should we be doing for I? Well, thank you. I think the solutions are to be homegrown. We have to look at it from a two-point position. We have to deal with the economic realities that create the conditions from which some of these groups can dangle the support. So dealing with the economic, of course, is critically important. So strengthening institutions to ensure that we can widen the distribution of wealth. But secondly, the security, of course, has a major role to play in this. And there needs to be a coordinated approach to looking at how security is dealt with. So Mozambique, for example, is quite a good way to look at it. They've been able to slowly deal with the insurgency because of a joint coalition of militaries that are African-based. And you do have, of course, the involvement of the United States and the Portuguese, but only in a training capacity and equally supporting financial support to the Mozambique government. But that support has to be purely on that basis. But the boots on the ground, the hard work has to be done by African-based. And so far, we have military such as Zimbabwe. That have quite extensive experience within the Mozambique trade. You have Angola now currently going in. You have South Africa, launched into the deep of Mozambique. African solutions are our best because they normally have the experience to deal with that. And they understand the local realities by virtue of culture, but they equally speak the language, okay? So the community language as well. So all these things matter. So a home-grown-based solution is the best way forward. I, Geoffrey, for example, within the Western region, there is a strong coalition that can be created equally through the aid of the AU. But these things have to be looked at. So in one vein, I do agree with the president, when he argues for home-grown solutions. I differ when he uses Afghanistan as a critical example of that reality, purely on the basis of the differences of history, culture and context. All right, I'm gonna wrap up with you. Going forward, because I mean, everybody seems to be sounding the same. We need to deal with corruption, Justin says. Farai says, let's have home-grown security and fight against the terrorists. But in Nigeria, like you have said, we have issues of corruption, and now we have humanitarian issues dangling over our head. And we have so many needs that have to be met, the welfare of the soldiers who are at the forefront, the fact that we are welcoming so-called repentant, broken-around members. And we have rehabilitated such before, and some of these people returned back as informants to the Boko Haram people. So again, really, that saying of once bitten twice shy, shouldn't it apply here? And when we talk about debriefing these guys and actually finding out why they returned, shouldn't due diligence be done so that we avoid having the same problem crop up over and over again in closing? You know, at the height of the Boko Haram crisis, when former president, good luck, Jonathan, was leaving, there was a rough estimate about how many Boko Haram train fighters they had. There was about 6,000. But if you calculate the numbers of Boko Haram terrorists that have been killed with the number of press statements you get from the military on a weekly basis, it's like since that. So the question you're probably asking is where are those numbers coming from? So it's the same deployable situation that the local governments and the states over the years still existed to do. One of the reasons why you're having a large number of Boko Haram, I don't like to use the word repentant because each one is so in an ideology. It's a matter of conjecture how repentant you can really see that that person is either he's dead on the side of a terrorist and alive on the side of those who are not terrorists. And at the end of the day, they still got a cross on his back. So those conditions that made it fatal for them to join Boko Haram or Eastwap, are those conditions still existing today? The answer is yes. You don't have schools, you don't have hospitals in those places, you don't have the employment unit, a lot of investment in all of these places to get them on board. Many of those fighters, you also will have to do a reconciliation of some sort. And reconciliation comes with social justice. How many of them are committed crime that are against humanity, war crimes and those sort of crimes that should be punished for what they've done? That way, the people in those communities will be willing to accept them back because already there's a lot of anger towards these people and they don't want them back again. So those are things I think people are talking about and want that to happen as quickly as possible. So you don't have what happened in the Northeast, repeat itself in the Northwest, where you have a large number of people who aren't going to school. So those are things that we expect to see going forward. All right. Well, I want to say thank you. Justin Higgins is former US policy advisor for Raimavuti, the senior analyst, Southern African, the Southern African Times, Anna Gogo-Obo is a foreign affairs expert. Thank you gentlemen for a very interesting conversation. I appreciate it. Thank you, Marianne. All right. Thank you all. Well, thank you for staying with us. We'll take a short break. And when we return, the People's Democratic Party tells us it's thoughts about the statements of the former Central Bank of Nigeria governor, Sanity. Stay with us.