 We've got ourselves a funky slate on tap for week number four in NFL DFS because we got some pretty good games We want a stack limited number of good games And the problem is those good games might be heavily impacted by weather So our job is to decide can we tolerate that weather should we still go with those? Should we pivot elsewhere if we do pivot elsewhere? Where the heck can we go a lot of decisions on tap for this week in NFL DFS will break down What we're thinking about those and how we're viewing this slate on a fan dual calm welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number fire that's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Join here as always by Brandon. Good do la He is the senior managing editor of number fire calm Brandon week four is coming in hot. How are you doing today? I'm good. I just want to say hope everyone affected by the hurricane is stay safe That matters a lot more than football. So yeah, it's good call. Yes Just you know Look, it's affecting the slate, but you know, I just wanted to throw that out there. So yeah, I mean things are good Hoping to bounce back from a Not ideal week three the injury report was basically my core for week three but you know, we got some wind this week and look one thing I always like to Keep in mind is yet the picks that I that I put out there last week my favorite plays Weren't particularly great But I hope that the the process that we lay out and like trends in the way that we go over stuff It helps people take what we say and then do it better than we do and we got some I think some spicy trends for this week and how they impact things specifically talking about how wind impacts Fantasy football yeah with wind I always get nervous because I think I handle it differently than others And that is always going to be a situation where you could very well wind up being wrong because you're handling things differently But I think that's okay. Like I don't think that's that's the worst thing on the planet to Be different without being dumb and you know, we talked about that in terms of like pivots But I also think that we're being different than consensus here by valuing wind information more But I don't think we're being dumb because that process is rooted in data So it is a bit nerve-wracking for sure, but I think it's the right way to play things We're gonna break down what the wind impact is injuries impacting the slate Games the stack and much more but first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy Podcast seed wherever you get your podcast. We of course are an apple podcast spotify wherever else you get your podcast You can find us if you like what you hear leave us the rating of you We of course have a two weekly NFL podcast MLB every weekday until next Wednesday when that's over and done with NASCAR USC PGA all in the same place to hit subscribe on the number fire daily fantasy podcast see Fandela GMC are back to bring you the GMC Sierra mountain climber pick them a free-to-play fantasy contest series or free-to-play contest series It gives you a chance to win a share of $10,000 in Fandela site credit every Sunday courtesy of GMC Here's how it works every Sunday during the NFL season You'll be chance to answer questions around the non-prime time gains the more questions You answer correctly the higher at the mountain you will move if during any week you answer every question correctly for a perfect score You'll reach the summit winner share of $10,000 in a site credit the contest series is now live So head to fandela.com slash free slash contest slash GMC today to start climbing the mountain Let's dig in here to the slate overview for this week Brandon when you look at the week for main slate What are the keys for you as you're analyzing this puppy? figuring out how to address the wind which we've already He kind of talked about but Other than that trying to figure out which other games to to target because we have we have Baltimore and Buffalo, that's the big game of the week but then trying to figure out from there How to supplement those cores and which other games? I like the most and there are a lot of what we would call cross-off games on this slate and Really figuring out if any of those are better than cross-offs and And how to kind of approach that so it's it's more How to view like every other game other than that one in a sense Yeah, it's not easy by any means to figure out how to handle this And I think that that does make things a little bit nerve-wracking for sure But for me It comes down to analyzing the winds deciding how that'll play out And obviously we'll talk about both sides of it because the wind could change by Sunday So we'll talk about how to handle it if it if it doesn't matter We'll talk about that and like you said finding alternatives And it's not fun because I was looking through like my projected offensive efficiency for this week and the top games are impacted by wind the next game up is Broncos Raiders and do you want to do that? Probably not so it's deciding Can I go there? Should I just deal with the wind downgrade 10% or whatever and still be high on those games? It's a tough decision-making process and we'll talk about it here today on the show Let's start things off though with the injury section. Unfortunately. It is led by Christian McCaffrey He missed practice Wednesday with a quad injury the injury reportedly occurred During week three and actually could hold him out for this week So we've got both the on safe foreman and Chuba Hubbard here Would you chase either if McCaffrey were to sit this week? Personally, which is what you're asking. No, I think it's gonna be a split We haven't I mean at times you've seen people replace McCaffrey But then it doesn't always stick Don't like the offense enough. It's and it's very possible to guess wrong here. There's a lot of value You just talked about, you know, there's value in thinking about things differently There's value if you view this split differently than we do and like consensus does but I don't know if it's a lot of value but there's also a chance to guess wrong and That's something that's more of like a It's probably the first time I've said this but that's more like a season long decision We're like if you're desperate and you need to try to guess right in this backfield You can but when you're digging into a main slate of 12, you know, 12 plus games week after week These are not the types of long-term plus expected value backfields to target yeah, because you need raw points at a certain points and I'm expecting Hubbard to probably get more of the passing game work with foreman more to get more of the Early down work is both these guys to split snaps behind McCaffrey so far this year It was favorite form in the first two weeks But then last week with McCaffrey playing 80% of the snaps Hubbard was at 11.9% and form was at 6.8% now is a game where they were actually ahead that entire game So I don't know the way the backfield will split I prefer a foreman over Hubbard personally, but he's more likely to get Nearly down work, but I think they're gonna split it and if they split it like Best case scenario 60 yards and a touchdown. That's 12 fandal points. That's probably not gonna be enough For us to feel super super good about that So again, like Brandon said you can have a different read on this if you think that they will commit to foreman. I Would say go for it. I think that that there is value in that for sure But my personal read on it is the same as yours where I think it'll be a split and a split backfield on a bad offense is not something We want to deal with so that's where I'm out there Jonathan Taylor missed practice Wednesday with a toe injury Adam Schefter retweeted this morning. It's the first practice He's ever missed which is wild It's the first we've heard of it Did he have like 9,000 touches to in college? Yeah, and like a thousand per game You should yeah the account for three years. You would just think that yeah, I would just figure like they'd work in maintenance stuff for him Hope by now, but what do I know? He's a truck Tom Pelle Ocero said that Taylor should be good to go this week But the fact he missed a practice is like the Scheftertweet may be concerned for some reason It's like oh, he doesn't miss practice and he did miss but Pelle Ocero said Pelle Ocero is very plugged in very good He is a reporter. I trust he should be good to go But quickly since it's probably not gonna happen if Taylor were not to go, how would you handle Nihime hides at $5,100? I'd like them a good bit. I think it would change the slate a decent amount 40% route rate through three games. So almost six targets per game for him already at almost 14 Adjusted opportunities carries plus double your targets with room to grow there at 5,100 So I think that that would be appealing And that would be significantly more appealing than anything we get from Carolina could not agree more I think the Nike minds would be a tremendous play just because our goal even on a faddle have PPR site is to Get a lot of passing game work We know Heinz will get that and it'll probably get ten or so carries to so ten carries seven targets is a fairly Reasonable projection. I'd be all over that. So I hope I hope Taylor plays because I love him And I think that he's a super fun football player But if he doesn't go I will be super super in a Nike minds well above either Carolina guy deandre swift not practiced due to his shoulder injury He seems likely to sit now. It's a good thing for Jamal Williams The problem is everybody else in the Lions is also hurt among our St. Brown TJ Hawkinson Josh Reynolds is not practiced DJ chart limited We'll talk about this team in the bookmaker section David Montgomery didn't practice Wednesday with knee and ankle injuries He's called day-to-day Not sure what his status will be though. So how are you doing at Khalil Herbert at 72 if Montgomery cannot go Yeah, they both play I don't want either If if there's no Montgomery, I think Herbert is basically a lock button play almost at that salary 20 carries two targets last week for 76 expected rushing yards according to next-gen stats and 157 actual So I want to keep that in mind But even if you combine the expected rushing yards and the receiving yards he had he was at 88.1 so You know 24 adjusted opportunities in that span. I think that's great and with how running back is shaping up. It's Something that that I would I would be very very into. Yeah I Think that I'd be pretty high on him Where do you view him relative to Jamal Williams is 74 if we assume that both Montgomery and Swift cannot go Probably just both but yeah, I think I would lean Williams a Midge because I like the offense more. Yeah, I might lean Herbert a bit more because I think that there is less chance He swits time with guys, but I think it's close And I think that the both answer was the correct answer there Hunter Renfrow in his practice again Wednesday due to his concussion It was his absence last week that freed up Mack Hollins to go bananas So what's your view of the Raiders offense the passing game here specifically if Renfrow does wind up sitting again? Yeah, I think I have some interest in Hollins at 58 It's it's only a matter of time before Devonte has a big game. He's he's 79 if I'm not mistaken. Yeah, and then You know Jumping ahead to tight end. We have Mark Andrews this week and then everyone else The fact it appears we have lost. I think that we go to know your back Okay, I thought I lost you beer back you were glitching out there for a second. Maybe it was just me But anyway, you're back Yeah, I think that for me it would put Hollins at least in play But I think the preferred option there would be to Ride with Devonte Adams At 79 because I agree with you where he's going to have a bounce-back game eventually The meeting expectation for Devonte is lower So I would not go there for cash games But as a tournament pivot playing indoors on the site that has a lot of weather on it In a game that I don't think is bad as perception I think Devonte would be pretty intriguing there as well The Giants lost Dylan Shepard due to a torn ACL, which is a massive massive bummer Again, I think he came back from his torn Achilles Canaries Tony and Wanda Robinson missed practice week three or missed week three didn't practice on Wednesday. So There are targets available, but Brandon is this situation to avoid for you or are you taking shots on David Sills? Kenny Gallendon Kenny Galladay Daniel Bell and or anyone like that um, I think this is uh A worse situation than my internet apparently so that's I'm out on this one yeah, I I think that Sills is worth like a half second of consideration in 52 just because we know he'll probably run every route this week and every route for a team that needs targets like At some point that has to matter He was kind of a target hog in college at West Virginia once he transitioned from being a quarterback He was kind of a target hog at times so I don't want to use him and I think that I'd rather just find ways to get up to Like Greg Dorich is is 53 if Rondale can't play Uh, once again, I much prefer that. Um, there are other guys in the Low 6,000 range who are a lot better, but I would give some thoughts David Sills currently. I'm not there But it would require at least some consideration of potentially using him at 52 just because I know he'll play every snap run every route and at some point that has to matter Don't want to go there, but might Might be forced to at least consider it Yeah, I mean I'm not I'm not there. Yeah I feel like there are other Other receivers you can make that case where they they run virtually every route And uh, that doesn't necessarily translate into something you want I don't know. I mean, I don't disagree. It's why I'm saying I'm not probably not going to use him But I think he's worth consideration. Like you don't just cross him off I think that he is like you get some thought to it is what I would say We actually do have some positive injury news for this week. Zach Wilson is back That's kind of fun. He will start for the jets facing off With the Steelers now the jets were pretty past heavy offense under Joe Flacco um But I'm not sure they'll be that under Zach Wilson. So how does he view the jets shift with Wilson starting against the Steelers? Uh, I'm It would impact things more if I cared about this game at all, but this is one of the the games I care about the least Um, I don't think I'll target anyone aside from the defenses I will say that This almost feels like a David Sills kind of thing, but Najee Harris at 7 000 at a certain point Has to be someone that we look at a little bit longer Um, I'm not going to get there. I think this week with Giovante Williamson 69, but I mean eventually Things have to improve to a degree. Yeah I don't disagree. Um He's getting a lot of red zone work, which is not super common among all running backs right now He is still getting some targets. He's not the lowest juice player in the world. He's close, but he's not the lowest juice player 89 yards since scrimmage in week two so I think that you're right to mention him. Um I'm not totally out and like, you know with givante being there damian pierces around there Khalil herbert is there deandre swift is or uh, jimma williams is there No one's going to use Najee Harris The I think the one issue I have is that this is sneakily a really bad Defensive versus offensive line matchup for the Steelers. They're bad against everyone, but the Jets defensive line is pretty underrated so Yeah, I think that that's probably I probably won't get to naji I think that there is like if you're running 150 in a huge tournament. Maybe you want to go naji there, but Probably not for me. Uh, all right. So you try to write off travis homer on monday's recap podcast Uh, but travis homers on ir and with rish with homer getting hurt last week rishad penny played 68 percent of the snaps So it's a fun game Allegedly any thoughts to rishad penny with no travis homer in a great game Yeah, I think I have to I mean I like penny as a talent. I just never like the role in the situation within this offense, but 6700 Look We've talked a few times already this season about How building just a straight up balanced lineup is not ideal and we need guys with like big ceilings, but Penny can like churn out Yardage he can break some big runs. He has not scored yet this season That's something that eventually we'll have to change even with some red zone trends being down for running back. So He's on the list. Yeah, my question to you here is penny at 67 Or jump down to a devon single terry at 62 in a great game or jk dobbins at 58 in a great game as well uh dobbins over penny because I I don't know. I thought he looked okay last week He did pop up in the injured poor the chest injury on wednesday, but is limited in practice So he's probably okay My guess would be that they were going to scale him up I'm a bit lower on dobbins now than I was monday because john harbaugh talked Glowingly about justice hill, which was odd. Um So a little bit lower than I was but I think I'd still rather go With jk dobbins given the situation for him if it's or shod penny Uh versus devon single terry I think there's a lot more juice than the touches for penny The bills may need to run more because of the game, but I don't know if they can run Single terry does give more passing game work, which is pretty valuable But I feel like I would go penny by a hair over single terry, but then dobbins over both potentially Yeah, that kind of goes uh That says a lot about how we're viewing running back this week and this late overall. Yeah, um There's only one guy I love and that's saco and barkley. I don't love anybody else Everyone else I'll I'll use but I don't love them Yeah, I was gonna well Are you so are you gonna use? I don't know if this is the right time, but are you gonna use nick chubb at 92? probably In if I can get there and line up constructions Yeah, I mean it depends on if we get both Jamal williams and glial herbert that does make things easier. You know, I mean if we have multiple guys we can get to because I've got Like I had a lineup that was before the macaffery injury that was macaffery seyquan givante if I just flip You know seyquan down to Jamal or Whatever uh jamal or herbert and then flip the macaffery went up to actually it's only $4 difference between macaffery and chubb So yeah, I'll I'll chubb. Um, he's got Path to the rb1 on the slate a pretty obvious path. I would say as well Like it's not a perfect role, but it's one of the better roles on this slate Yeah, it's just Like a nick chub Cordero like mini stack is nightmare fuel for me because i'm not going to get there myself and you should I'm telling you now you're gonna regret like i'm just i'm letting you know that like from a If we're doing things from a ceiling perspective You should be on those two guys because they actually have juice whereas a lot of people do not Okay, let's say you're building 10 i'm trying to safeguard myself from having to listen to complaints on monday morning Is what we're doing. No, no, I I get it like nick chubb is The nemesis of mine still for the fact that he has How many targets does he have this year? He has two per game I'm seeing one three and one on his player card. I'd want him to I think but whatever Yeah, okay But he scored four times in the past two games He did have 141 yards 143 yards from scrimmage in week one for 14.8 vandal points with no touchdowns I get it like it's not like this is lost on me, but at 9200 He's got a score He's got it And I know we can do I know we can do both. I know he can Like he's not I think the difference is I'm not saying he's a cash gameplay I'm saying that he is a tournament play because his ceiling he has the ability to be He has a better ceiling than most guys on the slate I understand what nick chubb's ceiling is And that's what we're playing for is for ceiling the path to get there is Very obvious because he's very good at football and scores a lot of touchdowns and gets a lot of work in a very good game Okay, so then all right Bet me nick chubb versus rashad penny. Who do you prefer? Is this a joke? No, apparently you hate nick chubb. So tell me I'm saying at 9200. He's not gonna fit. What else i'm doing. Are you playing? Are you gonna play mccaffrey or or taylor this week? Yes How are you playing every running back you're playing 12 guys No, i'm saying that like I sent you a lot of pictures that had josh allen and mark and i know it was earth No, it was jack earth It was earths you love seikwan. You love jamal williams You like javante That's three guys. Oh man three running backs. Wow What a moron get this guy off this show. He likes three running backs loser All right, I feel like you're getting a little defensive here, but not right getting a little right Well, you're gonna play cordero and chubb. You're gonna play. I didn't say I was gonna play cordero I said that I consider cordero because he has a ceiling. Well, you're gonna you're gonna play mccaffrey and taylor I know you won't play ouston eckler. So I want to ask about him Uh, also mccaffrey and i play so it wouldn't matter I'm guessing he's probably not gonna play it if only after you so Like it sounds like he's he probably said so it'll wiggle things down I'm just thinking from the context of like how i'm primarily approaching things Nick chubb is very very difficult To wrap my head around how i'm gonna build him into lineups Okay, I sent you one of the caffery yesterday you've changed four two dollars around and you got you've got nick chubb in your lineup Very easy very easy. I sent you the lineup already just changed four two dollars worth and then you're fine You'll be fine. You should use nick chubb. I'm telling you this right now Okay, you should use nick chubb. I'll use them not in cash games because the the the role concerns are there They're from a ceiling perspective Like we talked about this at dara canry. What are the odds this guy burns me for not using him? at 9200 with his role in that game, I would say the odds he burns me are 25 so 25 exposure to nick chubb Okay, i'm with you Are you or are you lying to me? I just I think you're lying. I don't I just I at a certain point guys have to be off the list Yeah, but I'm not gonna he won't be the one I cross off the list. I'll cross off some jabroni with no ceiling. Okay. I Okay, let's move now to the bookmaker info for this week starting off with the bills at the ravens The total is 51 bills favor by three both these teams have banged up secondaries both have electric offenses There is wind in this game so I want to leave the wind discussion for later on because Hurricane paths can shift and we don't know definitively that this game will be impacted by winds We'll talk about the wind later on if we assume the wind is not prohibitive in this game brandon Are there any other paths to failure for you for bills and ravens? not really um Both these quarterbacks have rushing Ability maybe you say that they don't throw enough passing touchdowns here if they you know if the wind again, I know we're like leaving the wind but That's kind of a route. Um, these teams can also get a little bit weird with Who they throw to in the red zone and that can be kind of hard, but I mean the salaries for most of these players aside from the quarterbacks uh I guess the fun stefan digs is up there and obviously mark andrews But like we have other paths here with rishad bateman gabro davis Both running backs that we would consider low salaries. So that's less harmful to how I view this thing because you can stack this game up and just Defray some of the the cost of raw string stefan digs mark andrews either quarterback with the value pieces on the other side so I don't know. I like it and even with wind this game is not particularly scary for me Yeah, I think that um, the good thing is what you alluded to is the salaries salaries are very reasonable across the board here like Rishad bateman His role is not as good as I thought it was once I dug into him yesterday So that was a bit annoying, but like we know he has a good ceiling And I can go with a balanced lineup and still stack this game And that's something we always get for the premier game on this late. So to me. I think that It just grades out really well now We did get a question from you two asking about why we're so i and jk dobbins I wanted to talk about that quickly because I think that he is one of the factors within this game That does make it a bit easier to stack and dobbins $5,800 before this week and i'm expecting his workload to increase now that he is one more Week more acclimated and the other thing too that I think helps here is that he's been practicing in full for a couple weeks now So practicing in full got his workload in last week. I think you said 62 snap rate in the first half for dobbins Based on the bills. Yeah, based on the bills a team that the ravens Will probably be more physical than defensively like I just remembered that jonathan taylor game last year Where he went bananas against the bills. They're a good defense overall But couldn't see some more physicality ronnie stanley actually practiced in full on wednesday too. So he might be back here Um, I think that's why dobbins is at least in play at 58 now The question would be do you prefer dobbins or do you prefer a wide receiver in that range in a flex position? That's a worthwhile discussion to have but I think the dobbins Specifically for game stacks very much viable this week Yeah, so it's a game stack only play he did play 62 of the snaps in the first half last week, which is promising Um, I will just say that I prefer Devin single terry to dobbins within the same game Uh, just because We could see single terry Get five plus targets and it wouldn't surprise us dobbins is not going to get there. Um But it's more of a if you think this game is is Build, um properly. Ah That could lead to you know, a couple short handoff touchdowns to dobbins more rush it like more Long rushes for dobbins who definitely has that in his arsenal. So that's the case for dobbins if he was in a worse game Like in like if he was playing like the Steelers, I wouldn't be considering him So it's the game environment the potential for the role to improve from what it was for the full game That said it's still game stacks only I think for both of us Yeah, I I agree with your assessment that he probably won't get five targets He was more of a factor in the passing game than most ravens backs though He actually is tied to the lead in targets. Uh for the ravens this year. He has two Justice Hill is two and uh kenyan drake has one so And he had 17 yards on those so they you know, we got some juice on those as well So he's not a court play. He's not a cash gameplay. He is uh game stacks or mini stacks only But I think that he is viable enough to be included inside that discussion What's your view of bateman here? Uh, because he was the guy who kind of gave me the biggest issue So again, it's game stacks only. Um, you know, we're both more open to flexing a receiver this week Then yeah really ever just because running back is not ideal and there's also a lot of receivers who have Moderate salaries will call them but paths to bigger games. I think bateman is still trending more toward game stacks only I will say um despite Overperforming expectation in terms of fandal points based on my model He's actually had a catch rate under expectation Or over expectation of minus 10 uh percentage points So, you know, there's a case to be made that he does a little bit better with that workload But right now this is the mark the andrew show. Um That gives me pause uh with bateman. So again game stacks only Uh for bateman, I wouldn't say that about gabe davis though. I think $6,500 very good salary his role disappointing so far But like we know that that's Over a two game sample not super likely to be sticky if you put in uh, josh allen with um, Gabe davis gave the babe and mark andrew's and then the cardinals defense, which I think is in play for this week You wind up with $6,600 left per player That's doable. Um You probably have to flex a receiver in that situation, which is fine. Um, but I think Uh, uh an allen davis andrew stack is both my Preferred way to stack this game Well, uh, allen or lemar. I don't really care. Um, doesn't there's a coin flip there But you can do that pretty easily this week and I'd like to do so. So I'm going to strive for a lot of balance um If I can specifically at receiver because I don't want to go in the depths of that position this week But it's a viable option for this game any thoughts for you on bill's ravens Uh, no, I think we covered it. Uh, there's there's upside within this game, obviously But there's also some decent value if the game pops off Yep, I would agree one of the higher totals in the week and no end here because it's indoors If there's wind something's gone wrong. That is the browns of the falcons browns one and a half point favorites total 47 and a half. It was 50 at 1.2's day for some reason I took the under there so don't know why it was there, but it's not there any longer There are high usage players on both sides of this game But both these teams like to run a bit more than you'd hope So what's your level of confidence in mini stacks in this game? Yeah, love, uh I love a good, uh, drake london and or kyle pit not and or but like drake london and kyle pits plus mark cooper david and joku I think is like a fun mini stack um, I Briefly briefly considered Your guy marcus mariota, but I don't think I'll get there myself But I think didn't do it. I did too. I couldn't talk myself into it, but I like I gave it thought. Yeah um, that's when you sell yourself on baltimore buffalo just being Like just tanking and and not having points, which you know is always within the range of outcomes for any high projected game, but Hard to envision again if you guess right on that and you view it differently You're gonna you're gonna benefit but yeah, you know, so I think that mariota's at least somewhat Think about it a little bit. I think it becomes viable if the win situation stays bad for Bill's ravens and For eagles jags because that means that the three quarterbacks who separate on this slate and hurts alan and jackson would all be in Subideal situations, which increases the odds that they don't hit which is kind of again what you were saying is that's what you're banking on Yeah, so I like the pass catchers in this game. I think that there are four viable ones As for the running backs, we know where uh, jim stands with with nick chub um So I think the bigger question is uh, what are we doing with cordero patterson at 76? And why are we not just targeting him? whenever we need some like mid-range Like tier two. Let's call it running backs this week. I think that he's at least in play at 76 um The reason I prefer jamal prefer herbert is because I think that they have better odds of just being their team's like guy Uh patterson in the two games. I think the the week one thing with damien was an outlier because um He left mid game they had time to prepare for his absence in weeks two and three and in those games Patterson 59 snap rate in both those games. He had um 12 Is that correct 12 adjusted opportunities in week two and then he had 19 in week three So you're leaning on massive massive levels of efficiency, which could happen. Uh, definitely could happen, but um It's not the most likely scenario. So I prefer williams. I prefer herbert to him in the mid range I prefer seguan just uh 500 above him So you were talking about crossing players off Patterson might get the chop I will probably have like a mini stack of this game that I have him in Because a path to this game being high scoring is through cordial patterson But definitely nothing outside of game stacks. Whereas chubb. I think is viable Outside of game stacks, but you can also use drake london or kyle pits as a way to offset a salary a bit Because they are under salad relative to their roles Yeah, I agree with that. Um, it's a it's a stack situation only for me I I'm not going to restart the nick chubb thing, but I think that there are a lot of good plays in this game Okay, let's go to the brown side here. Umari cooper has a 29 target share so far this year. He has Well, he has 67 of the deep targets out of Six total deep targets for the browns Um, cooper has 21 of the red zone targets so I think if you're asking me what I rather use nick chubb or amari cooper, I would go chubb by a pretty decent margin Um, would you disagree of that? Yeah, I mean Straight up sure within the context of like The salary i'm probably more likely to get to cooper Just again because of where I am with chubb um But over the past Two weeks cooper's got a 36 target share. Uh, nejoku is at 26. I think that both of those guys are in play Cooper's game stacks, uh, only for me. It's not like I love him outside of that. I think nejoku probably higher just because He's tight end and if it's not If it's not mark andrew's We're darren waller It can definitely be nejoku. So That's where I am Yeah, um, I think cooper is Did you mute yourself? I can't hear you looks like we lost jim here. So The the case for nejoku for me Stems from the fact that he's actually second in target share among tight ends over the past two weeks trailing Just mark andrew's who's up at like 40 but nejoku Is up to about 26 And again, we're looking at a a pretty weak Tight end slate overall where we have andrew's Who we all definitely want access to at 8400 With waller at 65. I think dowes goddard is appealing if he's you know, fully good to go at 6200 but You know, it's a it's not the best passing offense overall and I think that that's why I'm a little bit lower on the idea of playing nick chubb as well We need efficiency to lead to red zone chances and that should be there But for me nick chubb is the probably the most polarizing play of the week Where last week, for example, uh, 23 carries 113 yards You love that yardage upside one touchdown, but because he's not involved in the passing game 17.3 fandal points for me, which Nobody's gonna turn down but at 9200 The path for him to get to 30 plus is scoring multiple times For me, which it you know is obviously within the range of outcomes for specifically nick chubb But within this game itself is appealing so Are you back? I don't know. Can you hear me? I can hear you now. Okay. Cool. So I unplugged my mic I heard like my mic go out for a second and I was like Uh, that can't be good. And then I just kind of hoped it would go along and you just you know So you couldn't hear me, but I could see your mouth moving and you just you know, we figured out I was like, yeah, but I I couldn't I couldn't tell if uh It was my internet or what? Oh, no, it was me. I unplugged my mic. Don't do that Uh pro tip if you decide to go into podcasting, don't unplug your mic while you're talking Just uh, I'm gonna go out there. I'm assuming you cover the rest of brownstone falcons So let's move on here to the seahawks at the lions total. They're 48 and a half That is down from 50 on tuesday. The lions are four and a half point favorites down from six earlier in the week so Brandon we like some guys on Uh, the lions here, although they're all banged up But can you justify any seahawks and is this game at risk of being a disappointment given that it involves the seahawks Yeah, this is uh It's it's tough. I I mean You can correct me if i'm wrong, but it feels like the first game where we're especially bogged down by one side of it And that we don't have as much appeal like it feels like most of the stack games we've had We've been able to to like both sides of this thing Again, I got to be higher on rashad penny than I was as of monday I think because of the context of the running back landscape I've Really struggled with the pass catchers For seattle, which I know we all have But dk mat calf Entire lock it's still running a lot of routes Averaging around eight and a half targets per game They're getting some downfield leverage on them. I think things were better This past week at least but you know, I looked into their usage and like their targets were not not very creative They had very very little yards after the catch dk mat calf had like four yards after the catch after After week two lock it was like 25 And I went back and it was it's not just because of them It's like they're running curl routes and out routes and like screens and just getting like Palm old because well, that's the best way you want to use dk mat calf is on curls Right, so it I think it got a bit better. Um this past week, which is appealing, but You know their salaries aren't Super easy like to I mean, let's say they're not easy to justify because they're dk mat calf and tatter lock it But mat calf at 71 lock it at 69. It's just it It kind of captures like sort of their range of outcomes, but That was also kind of high for what their floor is which is effectively like Not a whole lot right now. So yeah It's tough. I'm most likely to play penny of any sioc I probably agree with that Which makes me kind of sad, but I think it's also like the the proper way to look at things for this week Oh my gosh, he came back at 64 yards and 12 targets last week. Yeah Why is lock at salary 69? Like how does that make sense? I know he has 11 targets in back-to-back games with nine catches, but like How is he 69? Um double digit fandal points, you know over 12 the past two games Probably just the name factor hasn't scored which is something I talked about. I think last week Yeah, um That should help With expectations. So I mean it could be like a lock a week just based on regression If you give if you give someone like 11 targets a game with his skill level Eventually he can take one, but I don't know you'd much rather use coral and sodner divante smith, correct? Yes. Yeah So I think honestly like this game Isn't that attractive it's It's not bad Yeah, but with the health of the lions That could be That could lead to some disappointment with the usage of the seahawks. That could lead to some disappointment. So If I force you to pick between marcus mariota Gino smith and jared goff the gym special, uh, which one would you choose? Uh, mariota I agree I think it's pretty easily mariota, but like I don't you know I could be wrong in that too So I don't know. I think this game is just not that fun. Honestly, which is a bit of a bummer So a modern ross st. Brown though does sound like he's somewhat in question for this game He did come back after he got hurt on sunday, but like They weren't committed to him playing Hypothetically if he does not go are you going at dj shark you going at Josh reynolds if he plays how are you handling things? Thanks that opens up a lot in this offense But probably also dings the efficiency a lot Yeah, definitely would um target 57 tg hawkinson assuming he's healthy enough to play 54. I think would get a boost but It could yeah, it could be a bit uglier I mean goff's been efficient of course throwing to um on ross st. Brown for like 90 of his targets it feels like um but yeah, it's a It's probably a game where I Don't like it as much as the total then again it is yeah Not like subject to heavy winds, so right gotta again you hope I've seen a dome collapse before so I know it can happen Yeah, but uh So jared goff uh when he is throwing to a mon ross st. Brown Is at 0.4 uh net expected points per per attend, which is a very good number 0.4 is phenomenal When he's throwing to dj shark negative 0.01 tg hawkinson negative 0.39 Josh reynolds 0.75 Uh, so decent efficiency there, but I think the overall takeaway is this offense would take a massive step back with no Amon ross st. Brown I think they take a step back with no deandre swift too So oh, yeah, I might just wind up being Out on this game, which is not fun to be out on a lions game given the way they played so far this year But with the way it sets up on both sides. I think that could be the potential takeaway there Let's dive in now to our trends discussion for week number four and talk about that wind Because wind is one of the headliners for this week you dug into what that does for fantasy output We talked about this a bit last year, but you did a different uh method for this one So what'd you see when you looked at the data? Yeah, we're also going to talk about stuff we talked about last year Just as refreshers because I don't even remember all the things that I researched. So but yeah There's a chance that winds are Up for a lot of games this week But specifically the best games of the week and I know the wind is more of like your thing But I wanted to you know dig in and see what I could find so I have data since 2016 For pregame projections based on number fires model and actual results bucketed out by wind splits I have zero as its own split which is going to come for domes In games with no wind then one to five and then from five degree increments from there But I also have info on game level point totals based on Those wind splits. So if you if you look at games with no wind Since 2016 those average 47.3 points per game One to ten there was really no difference. So I'll just lump them together 46.6 But that's 0.7 points down already With some wind and outside of domes Specifically making up a lot of those no wind games, but 11 to 15. It's already down to 44 and a half So that's about uh, you know three points down from games with no wind And then from 16 to 20 which we have some games that could get there 43.4 So that's about four points down from the games with no wind So it's a gradual decrease and that's what we see On the player level basis. I will say Games with totals of at least 48 and winds of 11 plus still average 49.3 points per game. So that's a little bit of a Nice thing to see for for the Ravens and bills This week, but it's for the positional takeaways I'll talk a little bit more in detail about quarterbacks because they sort of dictate a lot more, but the baseline Based on number fires projections for all quarterbacks is 17.2 Fandall points they score 16.6 On average actually, but Remember that we're projecting for partial touchdowns and you can't you can't record a partial touchdown Also, you cannot I looked I looked into it Um But the yardage differential is within 10 yards on average. So they're accurate. It's just more like touchdown variants that the kind of explains that People tend to underperform projections just because of the you know, how we project touchdowns But if you look at no wind and winds from one to five miles per hour The projections are great long term. I won't really get into that too much But these groups have a 27 chance at a 300 yard game Then there's that gradual decrease that stinks in again Once we get to six to ten The it's still a good projection overall, but the the the chance for a 300 yard game jumps down to 22 percent So that's already five points down with winds of six to ten Miles per hour by the time we get to 11 miles per hour We're effectively seeing one to two points shy of projections 20 to 30 yard drop drops in projections Which again long term the projections are very good at projecting yardage We see it less so with the heavier wind games And the odds of a 300 yard game jumps down below 20 percent again with no wind it's 27 percent with winds of double digits Um, it's under 20 percent. So that is going to impact the rest of the players in those games Russian quarterbacks are less impacted by this. They're they're passing yardage dips But their projection is still a lot better because of that rushing production Which is relevant this week for Lamar Jackson Josh Allen and Jalen Hertz Running backs not impacted a ton. Their projection does go down a little bit. That's more It's not based on yardage. They're yardage is still Viable, but it's more about the game environment and touchdown output So you don't have to bump down running backs too much Just don't think of it as like well, they're going to get leaned on a ton more And that's going to lead to more fantasy points That's just going to lead to more rushes if if that happens And fewer touchdown opportunities For tight ends. It's similar with running backs, but a bit worse Um, there's kind of a sweet spot for tight ends to overperform And that's with when the winds are under 10 miles per hour their yardage outputs are fairly stable But again, we're probably seeing the touchdown variance the point total is going down Fewer touchdown chances for these guys who are dependent on a touchdown. So wind is not ideal for running backs were tight ends But it's not super super damning for the running backs and then for receivers We kind of see it really kind of impact things wide receiver ones Who are the top projected receivers for a team go over 100 yards at a 22 percent rate when the wind is five or lower Including those dome games 16 percent when it's six to 15 and 12 only 12 percent So 10 points down when it's 16 or higher. So if we get winds of like 15 plus ish in that range Really scale back how you're gonna think about these receivers They score over their projection 44 percent of the time in low wind games again It's not 50 percent because those those touchdowns, but 39 percent in the moderate wind games and 37 percent in those high wind games. So Look, it's it's gradual It's not a given that these players underperform that they it's not a given that these guys don't score that They don't have big games, but if we're able to take a step back and say what happens overall when wind is up It's bad for fantasy That's different than saying you cannot play these guys. It's different than saying like Fade this entire game. Just keep that in mind. So with that said How are you viewing the wind this week assuming that the projections are somewhat accurate and that everything doesn't just go away um, how does it A view your your view of the slate? I think that what you do is downgrade, you know the Take kind of a numbers based approach based on what you said and downgrade like 10 percent your expectations for guys and if you think that 90 percent of lamar jackson is still above other quarterbacks in the slate than using You know, like there's still a path to that But I think you want to make sure you're making that adjustment and also decreasing like we talked about the Nick chubb thing. What are the odds this guy burns me? That's a proxy for talking about ceiling Decrease the odds they burn you for not using them like, you know, don't decrease it to zero but like decrease it and if you still can make the Make the declaration of okay, I still like this guy despite making this change then feel good about them So that's kind of way I want to view it is not in a black and white scenario You can't use anybody in 50 mile per hour winds But a lot of times when you downgrade them 10 percent, there'll be someone else who grades out better Maybe not a quarterback for this week I think that it does increase the odds that I would go with a a no stack situation Or I pair lamar with jk dobbins as opposed to lamar with bateman or something like that You mentioned tight end situation, you know could go mark andres as well But like bateman specifically might be downgraded more in that situation so I wouldn't go devon singletary. So I don't think but I would say just just downgrade expectations the second question. I think that it's pertinent is if we decide downgrading lamar alan and hurts 10 percent Makes them less enticing get at their salaries Where do we turn instead? So looking at my projected offensive efficiency numbers the number one game on the slate is baltimore buffalo Shocker. I know you're surprised Number two on the slate is philadelphia jacksonville also dealing with wind. So there's that number three denver in las vegas Oh, no Oh, no Oh Russ is sep russ is 71 throwing a courtland Sutton and jerry judy against the raider secondary And I I really didn't even give him a thought I will say because we both like courtland Sutton I like jerry judy just fine this week as well. I think we both like javante. I'm not mistaken Russ has played two top 12 quarter Quarterback defenses based on number fires adjusted metrics. He's played one That was a bottom tier defense. That was seattle Against seattle You know through more he threw 42 times In that game through 31 and 33 the other games, but 340 yards just the one touchdown, but He's been maybe he's just like matchup dependent now or something and Give him 340 and Yeah, just pile on two more touchdowns to that but like we would be thinking about russia lock differently I agree if he had that, you know eruption game in week one Maybe 71 I think that at the forecast holds This is what I'll say if the forecast holds I will have a non zero number of russia wilson lineups as sad as that makes me The other team that that is interesting from this perspective and looking at Potential pivots is the chargers. Uh, herbert obviously looked really Like he looked banged up, but he still had some really nice throws in that game They ranked third in projected single team offensive efficiency for me this week behind buffalo in philadelphia It's facing off against houston. No rush on slater. Both breaks my heart and actually does downgrade them quite a bit, but Micah Keenan allen back this week. I think that a herbert keenan stack I don't want to use damian pierce, but like if i'm trying to stack that game. Maybe I toss him in there You know, I think that the chargers also interesting in terms of finding ways to pivots without Totally going against all my numbers safer this week Fastest game of the week. Um, second most pass heavy game of the week. We're using pass rate over expectation so All right, let's let's just say right here right now winds are uh as projected come sunday morning still how much how many what percentage of your lineups are not going to use The the big three this week um I would still probably have them in 75 percent of rosters. Okay Would it be a hundred percent between alan jackson and herts if the wind goes down? My hope would be to make a hundred percent. Yes. I don't I can't say definitively would be but that'd be my hope Yeah, okay. Is that a same for you? Yeah. Okay. Cool So let's talk about the jags offense here that we talked about wind and they are impacted by that But again things could change. So let's talk about the jags here quickly because it's a not only total But I still like this game a lot. Uh the eagles They're obvious. We know why we like them But let's talk about the jags because the jags Just 21st and pass rate over expectation based on your numbers that is down from where they were in week one But they've also had huge leads need to the past two games and have been content to run it in those situations That also matters to that equation I'm not too concerned about that facing off against jalen herts when they have thrown the jags have been pretty awesome Their team-wide passing efficiency ranks sixth based on number fires metrics It ranks fourth in the main slate behind Jalen herts lamar jackson josh allen the three guys we discussed earlier on This means the four best passing offenses through two weeks are playing each other this week Just based on teams in the main slate We also have a good idea of where the ball is going christian kirk leads with a 25 target share is a jones 23 Kirk and marvin jones are tied with 36 to the deep targets and kirk has 32 in the red zone We have kirk in the slot. So Less likely to see derrius sleigh who did miss practice wednesday, but probably will play Whereas zay jones might deal more with him. I think kirk is the obvious guy here. I'm gonna Go back to him once again Probably not going to get to the backs james robinson's role is fine at 21.7 adjust opportunities per game 87.7 yards per game. That's what 25 percent of the red zone work That's the workload of a guy with a salary closer to probably $7,000 and 78 So we talked about crossing guys off. We have to be picky at some point I think i'm okay being picky with james robinson Travis etn not getting enough for me to consider him. What do we have to be picky or can you just play all the running backs? i'm not going to play all the running backs and play the good running backs You can play the trash ones and i'll play the good ones um I think it's at least worth discussing trevor lorenz in terms of other quarterbacks to consider if we get the wind down in this game He's passing efficiently. He's a good athlete He has just a rush attempts in these three games, but again, they've also been out front. So why bother? I think that lorenz's upside is better than what he's shown so far So i'm probably not there yet, but he's making me at least consider it, which I Am happy about i'm happy about that. So I think herd is a great or kirk is a great play even at $7600 lorenz and jones considerations and Having that option on the opposing side gives me more confidence in stacking the eagles because it's the increase the odds This game is competitive throughout and I like that a lot. So What's your view of this jags offense right now assuming the wind goes down prior to sunday? Yeah, I love kirk. Um, he has one of the best workloads in football. Uh, he's good as well So I like that at 76 I know it would be chalky uh with Presumably with a kirk tomate smith stack just based on like what they've done in recent weeks, but That's a pretty viable Stack to get to in terms of salary especially if you're open to You know plugging in lorenz instead of yeah, uh hurts and that's in that uh in that stack Don't know if i'm gonna get Much else though out of this and that's the kind of the I always hate whenever there's one Player that i'm into Brandon doesn't like having too many options, but also doesn't like having one Yeah That's the same thing of saying i'm gonna play I like eight or nine run. There's too many guys that I no no i'm talking about like within a game You're like, oh, I don't like why can't use patrick mahill because I don't know who to stack him with Uh, but I also don't want to have just one guy I can use So if I like if I like The eagles Let's say i'm i'm going like all in on the eagles here. Mm-hmm I'm playing hurts. I'm playing a g brown. I'm playing devonte smith I'm playing dallas goddard. I'm playing boston scott. I'm playing kenneth gainwell I'm playing playing tyree jackson who might not be on the roster anymore Let's say i'm playing with his three pass catchers throughout my lineups I have to play christian kirk in X percent of those lineups. Do I then pivot to someone else? I think jones is viable zay. That is zay jones I don't like it I don't know where do I leave or do I leave jaguars out? But then that yeah, it's fine. Yeah, because we love stacking games and teams Without I've become more de gaffey about it as as game stacks become as game stacks have been tougher the past year and a half Yeah, well, there's a lot of correlation within games. So I try to yeah, I tried to whenever I can But I'm more receptive to I'm not going to cross off one offense because I can't find a bring back That's what I was saying. Yeah, exactly what I was saying Not not that I just dislike the fact that I got to play christian kirk And and not really anybody else. I have to play this high usage wide receivers playing really well in a fun offense Oh, it's miserable tough life brandon tough life. Okay. All right You know what jim every every jamming hurt stack you have you plug in christian kirk I'm not that that feels great to do. No, I'll probably have him like 67% of my eagle stacks And I'll have some that are naked in a couple of z Jones. What's wrong with that? What's wrong with that? There's nothing wrong with that nothing wrong. Let's go to your second trend. You're talking about League-wide running back usage trends They haven't been scoring a whole lot. Tell me why and tell me if I should expect to continue Yeah, so we started doing this podcast a few years ago and it was basically the running back show and it was like In this house we we spend up for these running backs the big three basically throughout the The early run of the show levy on bell taught girly david johnson. These guys were getting 90 plus percent snap rates Tons of red zone usage tons of receiving work And we don't really have That currently i'm not saying that the running back workloads are terrible by comparison But it just feels different and I want to make sure that you know how I feel about stuff Is actually sort of validated in the data this year We've had just three games where a running back has had a 90 snap rate. That's 3.1 of team games So, you know one matchup is two team games there the six year average entering this year Six percent. So it's basically half games with the 70 snap rate are down to 24 percent So around a fourth of games Entering over the past six years. It was about a third 32 percent. That's pretty drastic Now a drop in elite snap rates in theory If fewer guys are getting there That actually helps the guys with huge snap rates or the best snap rates separate from everyone else But we haven't really seen that yet Like the stud running backs have good roles But haven't really burned us too much this year Part of that can be accredited to scoring trends where at a five year low and touchdown per play rate Overall we're at a five year high in percentage of Touchdowns coming from passing. It's been 68 percent this year. It's been about 62 percent the past few years Passing efficiency itself is down The league wide NFL passing net expected points per drop back, which is number fires expected points model The league average is 0.06. It's been around 0.10 or 0.11 the past few seasons This should probably increase throughout the year unless this is like a huge outlier year for quarterbacks, which it could be but worse passing efficiency means fewer yards Fewer first downs fewer extended drives fewer red zone trips and that means fewer easier easier running back scores um and and within the red zone itself we've seen A higher pass rate in the red zone and a higher pass percentage of touchdowns coming from the past within the red zone That is much higher this year that the passing in the red zone that it has been in recent seasons But in the past like two or three seasons. It's actually been Uh skewing a little bit more run heavy than it did the the years prior So this could be a bit of a correction and I don't want to just say It's going to scub back the way I did last year because it's kind of the past few years have been a little bit more run heavy So I just wanted to throw that out there. Um, we have seen Around 0.6 running backs per game gets a 20 plus adjusted opportunities again carries plus 2x targets It was 0.68 the six years entering was 0.7 From 2016 to 2019. I know that doesn't really sound like it means much But that's like, you know, that's a pretty substantial Uh workload cut off and we're seeing fewer guys get there With decent certainty I feel like I can say the best running back roles are not nearly as good as the ones in the past years because the the red zone workload is not there but Some of these guys are still not that far off like Leonard for net not on the main slate But his workload is great. Uh sake one barkley christian mccaffrey are all at an 84 plus percent snap rate Those are top 11 marks since 2016. I don't want to say like there's no You know featured backs in terms of snap rates Joe mix and jonathan taylor would have top 15 adjusted opportunity marks per game in this span with fornat and barkley still rating out well it's just We're seeing these like scoring quirks, but I don't know if they're just quirks I don't want to write off You know elevated passing numbers in the red zone is just something that's going to change all of a sudden um So i'm trying to figure out how that impacts things for me uh The I think what helps me This week and probably in recent weeks or upcoming weeks Is being more open to guys in committees. We're seeing a bit more 50 50 ish splits, let's say In fewer like 65 35 splits 65 percent snap rate that kind of workload not enough to draw me in but if it's close to like 50 50 The salaries will come down and that kind of helps me get there a little bit more which sounds weird, but um, we're not like trying to Force our way into like upper six thousand dollar running backs whose workloads aren't good Instead we might be in the lowest six thousands and these guys can maybe have a good game in the right right environment so look Running backs haven't really burned us too much yet this year We definitely have some guys on this slate who can do it. Nick chubb can burn us jonathan taylor can burn us Safe one i'm not it safe one It feels different and it has been different But i'm a little bit more open to like receivers in the flex this week and that's how I feel about things What are your thoughts here? Yeah, so typically if i'm at around like a hundred percent running back in the flex on fan dual I think that might scale back to 67 Percent or so this week is that nova reaction or is that fair? I think it's fair in the sense of this particular slate as well because There are look you could I think in in years past we'd say we're going to build around nick chubb Uh And just eat that extra salary that he might be kind of over salaried for a lack of receiving role We're going to play jonathan taylor Because his red zone rolls fantastic and we're going to play safe one and we'll figure out from there It's really hard to do that this week specifically We're missing out on a lot of high upside at tight end and quarterback if we do that so I think i'm with you. I might even be closer to 50 percent sure just because of how the salaries shake out and if I can go with like a Like a drake london versus devon singletary in the flex. Oh, yeah for sure. I'm going drake london 100 percent. I think that once you get below givante williams if I need a guy Below 6900 i think i'm going wide just even the flex every time I think that dobbins is the least worth considering down low and So you mentioned you're more okay with guys in committees if they have low salaries We have a guy who has a low salary isn't is in a committee pretty good football player uh brice hall 63 Facing off with pittsburg who's gotten kind of shredded by running backs ever since the start of last year Would he fit what you're looking for because of the work in the passing game or do concerns around the offense in general in that game in general push you off them at 63 so I like This game about as little as I could like any game um But I think that's a good example here though Uh of the type of running back that I think I have to be more open to yeah Where's I don't know if like tony pollard at 6000 like he's More involved In this offense than he has in the past where it's skewed zeke zeke would be like 7 000 He's showing yardage upside which is yeah nice So like i'm not saying i'm playing tony pollard right But I don't hate it as much because it's not like a 65 35 split where Zeke's over-salaryed for what is like cap stealing is And pollard's just like an afterthought because he's not getting enough work We're starting to see a little bit more of those shifts again All of this does mean that the guys who have those roles like seiquan that's still extremely valuable Um and that actually separates over like what zeke would have been historically right But the lower salaried from guys with committees like you can Project things pretty well running back because it's a little bit more I'm especially compared to like receiver. It's it's more consistent and projectable. So I don't really know if there's any guys there this week aside from potentially singletary Or dobbins because I like the game so much But it is Changing the way that i'm viewing running back for this year At least we're gonna do a singletary versus hall bet breeze hall I would take that okay. I don't feel like definitively that I prefer breeze, but like I don't know. I think he's I think that the okay, so I think that Regarding the receiver and the flex thing it goes based on salary If I can get to seiquan in that spot I want seiquan definitively if I can get to jamal williams clue herbert I want those guys if it's below givante london 69. I want a receiver Once we get down to like below six thousand though Then I probably favorite dobbins because I don't think there are a lot of receivers I like below romeo dobbs at 59 like There's not a lot down there. So once we get past 59 ze Jones is there too Then it tips back to dobbins So it kind of depends and that's different, you know the fact that I'm more susceptible because usually it's just running back every time But here I think there are ranges where it does shift. Let's move on to my second trend now and talk about the Vegas versus denver game after I talked about stacking that game. Let's talk about why I'm not as high and as my numbers may be my efficiency numbers do like this game as discussed third highest projected offensive efficiency But the pace here is bad based on your adjusted pace numbers The raiders and broncos both rank outside the top 25 and pace this year That's slowest on the main slate both teams are top 20 in your pass rate over expectation But they drain the clock so far down as we've seen this year though Pace is not everything if you get big plays you can still get shootouts from sluggish teams We saw that with miami versus baltimore where people were off because of pace. It still did still blow up Then that's why I'm not fully out here givante williams 600 hours great roll like him a lot I'm intrigued by the idea of divante adams buying low there at 79 darin waller is viable at 65 I think the biggest the guy who gets the biggest knockdown here is russ because we do want pace We want a lot of stuff at quarterback and it hurts the odds that he goes nuts there But I think that the efficiency in this game makes a givante divante. Ooh fun name stack too givante divante you get Jamal williams givante williams and then givante divante there we go name stack name correlation. What more could you want from this podcast? What do you think about this game overall? It's more appealing than it was when we started the show um Because again, I had to figure out which games. I like that weren't baltimore buffalo and like jacksonville filly This might be It's maybe one of them the Raiders Not a great pressure rate team that could help things develop. I you know russ is still kind of Crumpling in the backfield A bit more than I'd like to see so I could yeah, you know um And again, like we have seen russ play some Solid past defenses and has not been good and that one matchup where it's been a Promising a plus matchup He did clear 300 yards. Yeah, if this game's a bit of a shootout That's enough for me to like like court and Sutton a lot givante lower on judy just because his uh Like his participation numbers aren't quite as good even on a per route basis to adjust for The fact that he's missed some time. Um is his uh overall snap rate was in particularly good last week as he came back, but I like it a lot of names I won't call it a too many names kind of game Uh, but it is a little bit close to that if you like judy as well Um, then we have three to four like three flex possession Flex position eligible players to target any game that I'm not like sold on And then for the the the Raiders, it's Three If we include mac Collins and that so Like it don't love it Might by default get here a little more than I thought this game or uh Seattle Detroit This game because there are guys I want to use in both sides and I can't say that of that game This game or uh Cleveland Atlanta Cleveland Atlanta by a bit But I think that's a fair question to ask. I think they're kind of in the same tier sneakily, right? Yeah, yeah, okay um, the one issue we run into is that if the If the buffalo baltimore game wants it being as attractive as it could be Then salaries get tough because if you want to go like a josh allen gave davis mark andrew stack Fitting in givante and divante does get tougher there Um, you can do it dobbins and a receiver in the flex, but it does for some gymnastics So it gets tougher if you are jamming in those studs in that one game, but It's still at least viable Yeah, let's talk about the weather for this week talked around it a bit But winds in new york for the giants and barris 15 miles per hour I'd know heartbreaker for all of you hoping for the justin fields 11 pass attempts They might be less efficient this week because of wind there. Is that impacting for sake one or no? No, again wind doesn't really impact Um running backs too much aside from scoring expectations, but yeah his his workload is good enough that it doesn't particularly matter Okay, uh light Wind or wind and light rain in philadelphia for the eagles and jags wind is 15 miles per hour That is worse than the rain I care more about that winds in pittsburgh for the steelers and jets 10 miles per hour in baltimore for the bills and Ravens winds are 16 miles per hour um And then some rain possible there would be a downgrade if that does wind up happening But again, don't cross it off just downgrade Rain is possible in carolina for the panthers and the cardinals as well that the wind is at eight miles per hour There so I don't care as much as guards that one again light them up panthers cardinals Are we done with color? In this game, yaks think carolina's defense is good. I'll be back eventually but not this week Which means he's going for 30. Yeah, so Get your kylin kylin murray shares in while i'm off. That is the rule Okay, let's go with our positional plays week number four brandon. Who are you targeting on fan duel this week? This is basically the same guys for us the whole way through so Just a heads up uh josh allen and lemar jackson. I'm surprisingly I can make lineups work with either of them But for allen checks the box of planning game with the high total always got rushing upside worried a bit about the wind but again A every game is bad to some degree whether it's the total or the weather and rushing quarterbacks are less affected by high wind games that just run more Or run enough to you know perform well versus expectations um and Look baltimore got torched by mac jones last week on the ground five for thirty one in a touchdown Haven't really faced her He had five or thirty one last week. I was on a plane. So I didn't see most of that game Yeah, mac attack symbol Yeah, it was uh, it was nice in a league where I really needed him in a super flex but also love lemar Just kind of selling off for the quarterbacks this week with the assumption that wind is at least under like 15 miles an hour If it's if it goes up I will probably go to Justin herbert or russ I think yeah, but look lemars Facing the 20th ranked adjusted past defense. He's averaging 87 rushing yards per game Buffalo all-sense and really faced the russian quarterback yet this season Uh, really hard to see how Lamar doesn't you know rush for 50 and have some decent passing. So yeah, josh on lemar my top two guys as well so I think that if the weather holds You downgrade them But even I think that I would honestly say even like 10 downgrade you taught you asked me before What percentage of linus would have one of herts? Uh, jackson or alan, I think I'm gonna stick with 75 percent. So that's still pretty high number. So I think even if wind does hold 75 russ would probably be the primary quarterback I would turn to if not which is part of why to keep it at 75 percent because the Next to most viable option is not super attractive. Maybe I get to marcus mariota, but Probably not trying to thin things out that much. Um, I worry about the ceiling. I don't worry about the floor with mariota I just want can you get me 30? I don't think I can answer yes to that right now so mariota or ross Probably ross. Yeah, right I think so, yeah mariota will run more because ross is just a pocket passer at this point, but I think even though he had a little bit of a spark Yeah, six carry 17 yards and a weird flip to melvin, you know and just lighten it up. He's back He's back. Uh, running back. What do you have there? Uh, you go first because we have so much overlap Yeah, sake one barkley We haven't talked a lot about him yet, but he is the top priority at any position on the slate for me Like the guy I want the highest exposure level two through three games sake one is at 28 adjust opportunities per game which ranks second on the slate He leads the slate in the arts and scrimmage per game He has 41 of the team's red zone chances So those things that brandon discussed being downgraded for running backs Not the case of sake one barkley. He is the the one guy standing out here I did like mccaffrey before he popped up in the injury reports. He's probably again probably not going to play if I had to guess um But like I also think that game stacks of jt and darik henry work. I think nick chubb works But sake one is the priority on this slate. My second love is givante williams I think that his role is still good despite the fact that Things have been kind of funky for the the broncos. He's at 12 carries and seven targets per game It's kind of like a chimera-esque role. I think that that term gets tossed around more than it should But also 12 carries seven targets is kind of alvin chimera's game The raiders defense I think stinks. They're okay against the rush They rank ninth by my numbers which blend priors with what they've done so far this year So they're pretty good there, but he gets to work in the passing game Pretty good bargain at 69 My third love is actually higher salary than givante, but I like him a bit less than givante. That's jimal williams. Um I had reservations earlier on this year about jimal williams. What his role would be if deion raised in this time But I think I've gained more confidence in him is that it's gone along 20 carries and two targets last week The biggest flaw remaining for jimal williams that I still think that kreg reynolds and justin jackson Could mix in for for uh passing game work But that's still not enough to push him lower than third for me So to me my rankings are running back in terms of terms of priorities for this week sake one one givante to jimal three Is he would guess What I would say is jimal gonna be able to score if deion raised isn't just carrying the ball to the to the one And then fair question. So he has to do the work himself, you know Yeah, that's not like No, I think it's a fair question. Uh, would you have a running back? uh sake one Uh best snap rate among all running backs at 87 percent 136 grimage yards per game also a position best 68 route rate guess what that's also a position best 18 target share not a best but fourth's just so good Give me a break here. Uh, he's just the best play on the slate at a salary in my opinion Second love is givante at 6900 53 or 55 snap rates 12 carries seven targets per game averaging 84 scrimmage yards You know, the targets are up, but the route rates still good 51 percent Vegas is just a middling rush defense. They've allowed 21 catches on 26 targets For 193 yards and a touchdown to backs already. I don't really love Looking at that stuff, but I think that it's at least relevant And it's very possible that things like that are things that coaches notice So I think that it's I probably have historically Undervalued those types of numbers now. My third love is devon singletary at 6200 Trail last week, but had 11 targets 31 adjusted opportunities 74 snap rate and a 49 route rate. I mean, he's at a 64 snap rate And a 45 route rate on the season his first half snap rates though 63 59 percent and This past week. Yeah, they trail it and like his role was better But he played 88 percent of snaps in the first half Give me that in the best game of the week A guy who can also, you know, be there receiving back I think that there's a lot of I won't say like a ton of upside but What it opens up it allows me to get higher upside plays and It is not unthinkable that he scores and has, you know, just a decent usage game So I like singletary at 62 it's fair. I'm probably I probably should be higher in than I am but They just seem so hollow at all times with that team outside of when singletary is playing 95 percent of the snaps last year Then I loved him. He won me a lot of money, but yeah Clad Edwards II layers role got worse in week three, but like let's say it's week one or two Would you have considered Edwards II layer in this matchup at 62? At 62. Yes, and I think it was fair way to frame it at 73 which he was last week. No, but 62 That's a fair way to frame it. So yeah fair enough Oh, let's go to receiver. What do you got there? I love CD lamb at 68 I it's not my number one play, but it's I don't need to sit like Devante Smith, I'd rather play but CD lamb. I think is someone that's easy to overlook I know he's getting what I shivered. Sorry the wind came in from That's not I was not reacting. I know I actually shivered Yeah, it's cooper rush, but lamb is third and weighted target share behind just cooper cup and deonte johnson on the season among receivers Sounds like michael gallup might play but not be fully healthy. So that could help in theory, but probably not take You know substantial target volume away. I think the salary is low for lamb He's got 11 11 and 12 targets so far this season He's in a dome as well I think that if you're open to flexing a Receiver CD lamb is within that conversation CD lamb or javante for you javante Okay, but I might like it. I think javante is going to be Like a core play for me. Therefore, you'll need someone else. It's not really an either or it's like both I'm already having javante in there. Yeah Coral and Sutton as well same salary as lamb at 68 So I really don't see there's a way that like lamb is popular just because of the offense and with devante and Because his quarterback is cooper mush But Sutton is by far the best area's value in my model for this week The raiders are 22nd and pressure rate this season according to next gen stats. So I could set up some down throw passes again I said that, you know russ has taken advantage of his one easy match up. Uh, so for the season So cut him some cut him some slack guys. I think you can still do it And my third love is I hope you can still do it My third love is look he found something that's that's what I'm sticking to this week He found something when he did that little flip pass. He found a creepy tick tock is what he found he's like threatening people to eat a subway sandwich and like He like recorded this tick tock talking about his dangerous like Subway sandwich someone put it over like the joker when he's like at the party in batman Uh, the the dark night and it's that I think he has a hostage that he's holding in his house and threatening them with subway sandwiches As someone who eats subway At times i'm not going to talk about that also sub sponsor our podcast, but like He was creepy And I feel like I I have to be lower on russ now because this Haas's situation is probably weighing on his mind Okay, well I'll like to see what you do with your first receiver love then. Um, let's see she'll pivot away I didn't say I would lower coral and sudden I said I'd lower lower russ Uh, yeah, you forgot the aren't quirling though, so it's that's funny. Um wind I like drake london as well at 63 22 target sharing week one About 41 in two games since that's a receiver best. Yes a receiver best Over the past two weeks nine targets per game though Just because the offense isn't super pass heavy But still 4.5 downfield targets per game in those past two which for me is 10 plus yards downfield He's basically like a bona fide receiver one In a non-elite offense, which You know We like mario to plenty Especially jim Just uh, not like a enough of passing a volume for me to love drake like even more But i'm not gonna play him in a ton of lineups anyway Yeah, so I both sudden and london in my loves a sudden just love the match up In the two games with jerry judy a 23 target share for sudden But 50% of the deep work in those games and russ is still throwing deep That's the one thing russ can still do. Uh, it's sort of deep. Um, $6,800 too low for him. I Would bet that Sutton is in my Head-to-head lineup against you. I'm betting he'll be there stuff volume is too good I'm more like gonna play Sutton Sutton than lamb and head-to-head. I just wanted to shout out cd lamb I think that it's really easy to overlook him and I'll be living in that 6,000 range all three of my loves We're not 6,000 ringer receivers. I don't want to mine too. Yeah London in 63 Like you said workload too good to pass up 33 of the overall targets 39 deep and honestly like mariota Despite his flaws is throwing the ball down field a bit So I think I like that a decent amount facing the browns at home The offense has exceeded expectations Hopefully mild scare it's good enough to play because like that was pretty scary, but um If you can't that would upgrade the atlanta offense as well So I do like London the other love I have that you didn't have is gave davis not the best workload so far this year just a 13 target share in the two games, but 30 percent of the deep targets facing a beat-up secondary I love davis as low salary exposure to a great game prefer when we're shot bateman in the same situation, but I think that uh davis pretty solid as uh as an option too Other guys who I don't mind if we're looking for like other potential options to save some salary I don't hate going back to the Washington pass catchers again kurta samov 62 Did get a red zone rush last week, which is all I care about um He got that so he's a consideration for me Lazard slash dobs awful awful awful game, but dobs his workload last week was pretty good So quick consider him zay jones It's not a lot. I like below so I think to me. I want to stick to London and hire whenever I can at receiver Let's go to tight end. What you got there? I got mark andrews unsurprisingly. I know salary's 8400, but I'm willing to flex a receiver or bump down at running back this week. It's just hard to hate andrews I know I talked but also like just think about andrews like this like put him at receiver and give Give a receiver his workload. Would you use him? Yes, and he feels tight end Sweet well, you you made my point for me, but what I was gonna say My bad No, what I was gonna say though is So I have a metric it's just weighted target share which gives more value for red zone targets and downfield targets because they're worth More than an average target Andrews has a league best 38 weighted target share not a position best but a league best Target share there. We love this game He has a great red zone role uh Actually, the the receiver conversation I was going to go with was like imagine like there's Cooper cup on a slate and then like nobody Who who else is relevant? That's basically what the next highest target share is 18% Like that's basically what we're looking at. I know guys tight ends have higher than a you know 20 target share Do they but like show me one um, show me one The joku over the past two two games. You don't have to um, I know but The opportunity cost of just not considering andrews is it's pretty great This week. I have tg. Hawkinson. I'm assuming he plays 54 I can't really quit him. Um, but no tight end after andrews is perfect his catch rate over expectation is a minus 15 percent which Is eventually it's going to get better playing on a team with a really high implied team total He's had seven seven and four targets. It's not perfect, but I'm on rossin brown. D yonder So it's not a hundred percent. I think we could see hawkinson with a good game if he's out I'd probably bump up uh, david nijoku at 57 I think in joku's in play as well at 57. My first love is mark andrews for the reasons you discussed He's awesome The lower salary guy besides njoku who I like is zack earths across his three games including the game where he was limited 18 target share, uh double digit targets in both his fully healthy games He has 38 of the team's red zone targets, which is Actually multiple each game weirdly despite the fact that he seemed to never be in the red zone No deep targets yet. So he's not a must use which is why I think in joku works as well I'd rank them both of of hawkinson unless We get a full practice for hawkinson friday and iman rossin brown is out then it's wheels up on hawkinson at 54 I would say there defense what you got there. Oh, I didn't see your I didn't see your love. This is awesome I love it. This is a good one jets 3,600 E t s jets jets jets also positive game script because they got the best quarterback and football back Seventh and pressure rates second in yards per target a lot on downfield passes If that's relevant this week at all wind is up, which is generally good for defenses Game is ugly posing offense is bad and mitzsche bisky is bottom eight and expected points added Per drop back over expectation just hasn't been good. So I like the jets I like the jets too. Um, I think that they are Very attractive and I'd like to go there as well. So I'm on board with that one My love is the cardinals at 3,200 dollars. Um Their defense has been bad, but they are generating a lot of pressure The panthers sacrate is 10 thus far, which is pretty high christian mccappery is banged up that could help the cardinals as well 3,200 dollars in this situation where they are one and a half point underdogs kind of don't mind that um I think that all works out pretty well If the wind gets high that probably increased the cardinals, uh rush rate, which would hurt the panther the cardinals for me That made sound counterintuitive to like a defense lesson high wind But I want drop backs, um, and that would hurt that so I would say the cardinals work at 32 I do like the jets 36 you alluded to um Going up higher Yeah, I think it's I think those two are the primary spend downs for me For this week would you consider the raiders? at 3,000 Um, I probably should they can actually generate. I know you said they haven't had a good pressure rate this year Which is true, but like they have good pass rushers. So maybe that improves the year goes along. So Yeah, I guess. Um, unfortunately, I probably would consider them. Yeah Fair call call out. Do you want to throw it out there? Okay, that's all we have here for today. So brand any final thoughts for you before we close up shop? uh Check the weather. Yeah, and don't write off like high winds is irrelevant Yeah, I'd agree that. Um, I will So I can update the weather on number fire. Um, it's like I feel like I'm Tom skilling who was a Weather guy in Chicago for a while at wgn like I'm tom skilling I'll go in there and I will Push the update weather button around 7 30 or so sunday morning So you can go to number fire calm the gains line this page Check out the weather at that point. It'll be up to date weather based on dark sky weather. It's what I use for baseball It's always been good to me. So check that out. Um Tipping point is we get we downgrade about 5 to 7 percent between 10 to 15 15 plus is about 10 percent So be sure to check back downgrade. Maybe you're still in after making those downgrades Make sure you do make those downgrades and make your decisions based around that That's all we got here for today. We are back with you once again Monday for the week four recapture to break down all the key takeaways That is live on the fan to a youtube page at 10 a.m. Eastern and up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed After that Brandon if people have questions for you on twitter, where can they find you there? I'm on twitter at goodwill of 13. Are we done spelling it? I don't know. I'm trying not to because people have like Talk they like spell my name out on twitter for that reason whenever they like tweet at me And I find it kind of funny and endearing which but I'm also like I sound like a like a cloud So I'm probably gonna try to stop but well no one tweets at me anyway. So you've got a weirder last name than I do so Well, thank you. I'm not weirder. I meant like harder to spell. Sorry that came off poorly Gosh that that gudula weirdo Spells, I mean you're not wrong Are you not spelling it? I was waiting for you to spell it No, okay. I'm at gymsonus Figure out how to spell it on your own. I believe in all of you. I have trust in all of you You can also follow the fan to a podcast network at fan to a podcast. Good luck to all of you this week Thank you all for tuning in. We'll talk to you once again on monday to wrap it all up This has been heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire